The Mountain West sits in my sixth position among conferences, this is a bit controversial what with the American still having an automatic BCS birth but the top is a bit firmer and the bottom is comparable but I like the top half a bit more so lets move on. This is the first year of a twelve team Mountain West with the addition of Utah State and San Jose State to the fold, these additions allow for divisions and a championship game. Let's take a moment to set up the divisions: West: Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State and UNLV Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State and Wyoming. An easy split to remember as it is along time zone lines and a fairly equitable split now and long term, the division the conference was done well and that should take just about any confusion out of the matter. So let us dig in we'll start first in the...
West: |last years W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %Yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Fresno State|9-4, 7, 6, 76%, 64%| Fresno enters the year as the favorite in the West division of the Mountain West. The West is the weaker of the two divisions with more questions about contending teams than there are in the Mountain. Fresno State had a bit of a lull in it's output in the last couple of years but last years squad made a good step forward which has helped push their stock skyward. With 13 of 22 starters returning and three quarters of their offensive output from a year ago returning the Bulldogs have the profile of a team that should make some noise in the MWC this season.
Worst Team: UNLV|2-11, 8, 10, 88%, 69%| UNLV has a lot coming back from a year ago, however when you bring a lot back from a bad team it doesn't give you bump up or the positive feelings that being a solid team with a lot returning does. Still, UNLV should be better this season but a lack of talent on the roster for the time being with be the biggest impediment to any significant jump in production
Intriguing Team: San Jose State|11-2, 7, 6, 60%, 65%| San Jose State is an intriguing team this year because of the change of conference and the turnover of the coaching staff. Mike McIntyre left the Spartans for the bottom of the Pac-12 Colorado Buffaloes and will be replaced by University of San Diego's Ron Caragher. McIntyre didn't leave the cupboard completely bare as David Fales returns at QB from a team that went 11-2 last season. Caragher did well as Jim Harbaugh's replacement (won 3 league titles at USD) and we will see if he can keep the momentum going in his next step up the ladder.
Mountain:
Best Team: Boise State|11-2, 6, 7, 75%, 53%| Boise has been one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the country, heck the nation, amassing a 163-29 record since 1998 and a .913 win percentage since Chris Peterson took over the team in 2006. 11-2 last year came with a dearth of returning talent but a close game at the start of the year versus Michigan State showed that the talent level, 2 and 3 deep is getting much better in continued high level success under Peterson. The big key for this years team will be the ability of Joe Southwick to take another step forward at QB and additional weapons on the outside for him to utilize as well continued development of a young defense.
Worst Team: New Mexico|4-9, 7, 4, 72%, 44%| New Mexico made strides last season as shown by the graph from Bill C's fantastic work over at SBNation, but that still meant they were still well below but strides have been made. The reason that UNM is here is because the Mountain division is pretty solid and the next worst team is Wyoming who has made strides as well the last couple of seasons. New Mexico should continue to make strides in Bob Davies second season but they still have a ways to go, especially in the pass game and on defense.
Intriguing Team: Utah State|11-2, 8, 7, 57%, 70%| Utah State is intriguing for the same reason as San Jose State but with a higher level of talent throughout the team thanks to the great work of Gary Anderson and staff. With Anderson and co. gone this seaon the Utah State welcomes Matt Wells as the new head coach. Wells was the OC and QB coach last season and is a graduate of Utah State and should bring some continuity to a situation that is always tough to navigate. What is the dropoff for the Aggies in year 1 post Anderson and how will they replace key contributors at the offensive skill positions.
Conference Standings:
West: Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, Nevada, Hawaii & UNLV
Mountain: Boise State, Utah State, Colorado, Air Force, Wyoming & New Mexico
Championship Game: Boise State & Fresno State Winner: Boise State
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