Subtractions/Additions
The Sun Belt hasn't seen too much poaching from the ranks in recent years but it lost one of the more consistant teams in the conference. Western Kentucky has moved up? Conference USA came calling and WKU jumped, maybe they see it as a stepping stone to a bigger conference but with the current set of realignment it seems more like a lateral move. Additions to the conference come from two places, the independent ranks (via WAC) and FCS. The two WAC outcasts Idaho and New Mexico State add territory to the Sun Belts outreach but as of now nothing else more. Idaho is one of the ten worst teams in FBS and New Mexico State isn't too far behind, they were the dregs of the WAC and should finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt until the right hire is made. There are three additions from the FCS, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern & Georgia State. Georgia State is in a different position from the other two, because they have officially completed the transition from FCS to FBS. App State and Georgia Southern are starting there transition from the FCS ranks, both have had considerate success at the FCS ranks, although App State has had a rough couple of years. I think over the long haul that the additions of App State and Georgia Southern will be able to maintain the level of play we have become accustomed to from the Sun Belt.Recent History
Arkansas State has won outright or shared titles in the Sun Belt the last three season. In 2011 they won under the direction of Hugh Freeze in his first season. Freeze would leave to take the Ole Miss job. The 2012 Sun Belt season once again found Arkansas State at the top of the table and once again with a first year head coach at the helm, this time in the form of Gus Malzahn. Malzahn found himself at Auburn for the 2013 season. 2013 found co-champions, Arkansas State once again with a first year head coach Bryan Harsin. Harsin left this off-season to take the Boise State job in replacement of Chris Peterson. Louisiana-Lafayette disappointed overall as they looked to be the best team in the Sun Belt pre-season but Mark Hudspeth pulled this team together and pulled out a conference championship. Can Arkansas State's
improbable run continue.
improbable run continue.
Coaching Changes
Same old story same old song and dance for Arkansas State, this is the fourth head coach in as many years but this time they approached it differently. The Wolf Pack hired Blake Anderson, formerly the North Carolina OC, to a long term deal with a large buyout to try to stop the year to year poaching. Anderson ran the 35th ranked offense on a per play basis according to Football Outsiders F+ rankings. He should be a welcome addition to Arkansas State and looks to follow the mold of young up and coming talent. The other coaching change is to one of the newcomers to the conference and subdivision. Jeff Monken the HC at Georgia Southern took the Army job when it became available this offseason. Monken helped Ga. Southern to the success that helped move it up to FBS rank. Monken is replaced by Willie Fritz the head coach at Sam Houston State. Frtiz went 40-14 with two National Championship titles under his belt. Fritz should be a solid hire and probably my second favorite hire this season at this level behind Wyoming's hire.
Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % yards), Returning Def (Starters, % tackles) *coach records are career numbers
Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns: (9-4, 17, 8 (Y), 83.5%, 9, 79.4%) Last year was the year that someone was going to knock off Arkansas State in the Sun Belt and Louisiana was the team to do it. Things didn't start off on the right foot for the Rajin' Cajuns though and they shared a conference title. The good news for fans in Lafayette is that this years team brings back a bunch of talent once again and gets a reprieve. Mark Hudspeth and company look to be the class of the Sun Belt once again. Current Head Coach: Mark Hudspeth (93-33) Hired: 2011
Arkansas State Red Wolves: (8-5, 12, 4 (N), 48.4%, 8, 80.7%) I think it would be easy to dismiss the 2014 version of the Red Wolves for a myriad of reasons. First, is the fourth coach in four years dilemma. I don't want to dismiss it because you would expect it to catch up and stunt the progress at the program at some point but it has not had much of a slowing effect yet. Second, the offense has been depleted and although Blake Anderson did very good things at UNC it is always tough to install a new offense with the leader of the squad still uncertain. That being said I trust the administration that hired Anderson implicitly and with a contract that locks him in for a couple years I can't be too pessimistic about this team in a conference that will have a deeper bottom than usual. Current Head Coach: Blake Anderson (0-0) Hired: 2014
ULM Redhawks: (6-6, 13, 5 (N), 64.5%, 8, 76.5%) Todd Berry has done some really fun things with the ULM offense and two years ago reached a rare level of success for the program. Last years team was suppose to be very good but injuries, especially on offense limited the upside of the team. This year's team will have to replace much of the offense and plug a few holes on an experienced defense. A couple years removed from an apex it should be interesting to see what the cupboards bear and whether this coaching staff can keep the program at a reasonable height. Current Head Coach: Todd Berry (52-85) Hired: 2010
Georgia Southern Eagles: (7-4, 16, 8 (Y), 51.3%, 8, 61%) The first of the FCS transfers coming into the conference Georgia Southern beat Florida last season and I'm probably overrating them because of it. They return a lot of starters from last years team but they lose a bunch of key contributors. My biggest worry, however, isn't the level change, or the key players but the loss of what is widely considered an excellent coach. Monken's exit to Army comes at a crucial time for the program that is now moving in a new direction under new management. I hope for competition and a great story that I have overestimated the impact. Current Head Coach: Willie Fritz (137-62) Hired: 2014
Troy Trojans: (6-6, 10, 5 (N), 59.5%, 5, 62.1%) Troy was the most consistently good Sun Belt team last decade but they have slowly sank a little lower each season. Larry Blaekney has shepherded Troy through many changes and 22 seasons but looking at the results you can't help but think that another year or two like the last couple and Larry will be looking for another school to build up to respectable. This team doesn't appear to scream return to competency, as a 6-6 squad from last season returns less than half it's starters. The one saving grace here is that they have some of the more productive players on each side of the ball returning. For Blakeney's sake I hope he can return to the seven and eight win seasons but they have an uphill climb back to that place. Current Head Coach: Larry Blakeney (175-104-1) Hired: 1991
South Alabama Jaguars: (6-6, 14, 8 (N), 80%, 6, 57%) Joey Jones and the Jaguars have two seasons at the FBS level under their belts now but those two seasons are the only two against competent competition to really judge them on. The offense brings back a lot in the way of skill players but at the group of 5 level of FBS there is always consternation surrounding the lack of a returning QB. The defense has to restock about half the positions but with the teams below them being FCS transfers, other relatively new FBS programs I think they fall in just below average for the Sun Belt. All that being said I looked forward to watching this program grow especailly being so young (Started in 2009). Current Head Coach: Joey Jones (34-28) Hired: 2009
Texas State Bobcats: (6-6, 11, 8 (Y), 82.4%, 3, 52.1%) Texas State finished the transition to WAC in 2012 and moved to the Sun Belt in 2013 with the collapse of the WAC. This years squad comes off the heals of the best record at the FCS level for the Bobcats and the offense should be able to build off of that success but the defense is depleted. Returning three starters the defense needs to fill holes and gel quickly to give the offense some room to continue to grow but with 52% of the tackles returning there are some key contributors back. Franchione and company needs to capitalize on a .500 season or at least remain at or above .500 to continue to stamp out a place in the Sun Belt. Current Head Coach: Dennis Franchione (203-121-2) Hired: 2011
Appalachian State Mountaineers: (4-8, 16, 8 (Y), 60.6%, 8, 62%) We all know App State from the 2007 season opener at the Big House but this is a program that won three straight FCS championships from 05-07 and eight straight playoff appearances. Success can be costly and a new head coach last year led to a disappointing record. The notoriety, however, lead to a bit of a recruiting bump even at the FCS level so I think at worst they have low level FBS talent. Year two for Satterfield and company provides a steep learning curve, but another year to install the systems and program culture that they prefer. Current Head Coach: Scott Satterfield (4-8) Hired: 2013
New Mexico State Aggies: (2-10, 11, 8 (N), 63.3%, 3, 35.9%) New Mexico State is the transfer from the Independent ranks that isn't Idaho, which is great for them. The unfortunate part is that they are only slightly better than the Vandals at football. They went 2-10 last season but they lost have of the starting lineup last season including the QB and two thirds of the defensive production. Doug Martin is going to have a relatively long leash and it will be needed. Current Head Coach: Doug Martin (31-63) Hired: 2013
New Mexico State Aggies: (2-10, 11, 8 (N), 63.3%, 3, 35.9%) New Mexico State is the transfer from the Independent ranks that isn't Idaho, which is great for them. The unfortunate part is that they are only slightly better than the Vandals at football. They went 2-10 last season but they lost have of the starting lineup last season including the QB and two thirds of the defensive production. Doug Martin is going to have a relatively long leash and it will be needed. Current Head Coach: Doug Martin (31-63) Hired: 2013
Georgia State Panthers: (0-12, 10, 5 (Y), 44%, 5, 46.4%) At first glance Georgia State and South Alabama have a lot in common, South Alabama started it's program in 2009, Georgia State in 2010. Unlike South Alabama, however, Georgia State has sank straight to the bottom of the conference hit rock bottom at 0-12 last season. Trent Miles was brought in to replace Bill Curry and he should be given more than a year to build talent and a culture within the program but I can't blame anyone for being discouraged and I don't think a young roster is going to help any. Current Head Coach: Trent Miles (20-48) Hired: 2013
Idaho Vandals: (1-11, 15, 8 (Y), 61.8%, 7, 66.2%) I'm gonna keep this short because Idaho football is a wreck but 15 returning players is like putting lipstick on a pig. They should be better but there is still a huge talent void and that doesn't shorten up in one or two seasons, it takes multiple recruiting classes and at worst mediocre seasons. Current Head Coach: Paul Petrino (1-11) Hired: 2013
2014 Predicted Standings
1) Louisiana 2) Arkansas State 3) ULM 4) Troy 5) Georgia Southern 6) South Alabama 7) Texas State 8) New Mexico State 9) Appalachian State 10) New Mexico State 11) Georgia State 12) Idaho
The Sun Belt won't be as good as it has been or would have been with WKU but there is a considerable amount of talent at the top including two teams that should challenge for the group of five New Year's Day bid and hopefully some really fun games with Big 5 schools in the non-conference schedule. Next up is the MAC preview which should be an interesting thought process up top and a very forgettable bottom.
The Sun Belt won't be as good as it has been or would have been with WKU but there is a considerable amount of talent at the top including two teams that should challenge for the group of five New Year's Day bid and hopefully some really fun games with Big 5 schools in the non-conference schedule. Next up is the MAC preview which should be an interesting thought process up top and a very forgettable bottom.
Excellent writing Mr. Schwizzy!
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