The Mountain West sits in my sixth position among conferences, this is a bit controversial what with the American still having an automatic BCS birth but the top is a bit firmer and the bottom is comparable but I like the top half a bit more so lets move on. This is the first year of a twelve team Mountain West with the addition of Utah State and San Jose State to the fold, these additions allow for divisions and a championship game. Let's take a moment to set up the divisions: West: Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State and UNLV Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State and Wyoming. An easy split to remember as it is along time zone lines and a fairly equitable split now and long term, the division the conference was done well and that should take just about any confusion out of the matter. So let us dig in we'll start first in the...
West: |last years W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %Yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Fresno State|9-4, 7, 6, 76%, 64%| Fresno enters the year as the favorite in the West division of the Mountain West. The West is the weaker of the two divisions with more questions about contending teams than there are in the Mountain. Fresno State had a bit of a lull in it's output in the last couple of years but last years squad made a good step forward which has helped push their stock skyward. With 13 of 22 starters returning and three quarters of their offensive output from a year ago returning the Bulldogs have the profile of a team that should make some noise in the MWC this season.
Worst Team: UNLV|2-11, 8, 10, 88%, 69%| UNLV has a lot coming back from a year ago, however when you bring a lot back from a bad team it doesn't give you bump up or the positive feelings that being a solid team with a lot returning does. Still, UNLV should be better this season but a lack of talent on the roster for the time being with be the biggest impediment to any significant jump in production
Intriguing Team: San Jose State|11-2, 7, 6, 60%, 65%| San Jose State is an intriguing team this year because of the change of conference and the turnover of the coaching staff. Mike McIntyre left the Spartans for the bottom of the Pac-12 Colorado Buffaloes and will be replaced by University of San Diego's Ron Caragher. McIntyre didn't leave the cupboard completely bare as David Fales returns at QB from a team that went 11-2 last season. Caragher did well as Jim Harbaugh's replacement (won 3 league titles at USD) and we will see if he can keep the momentum going in his next step up the ladder.
Mountain:
Best Team: Boise State|11-2, 6, 7, 75%, 53%| Boise has been one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the country, heck the nation, amassing a 163-29 record since 1998 and a .913 win percentage since Chris Peterson took over the team in 2006. 11-2 last year came with a dearth of returning talent but a close game at the start of the year versus Michigan State showed that the talent level, 2 and 3 deep is getting much better in continued high level success under Peterson. The big key for this years team will be the ability of Joe Southwick to take another step forward at QB and additional weapons on the outside for him to utilize as well continued development of a young defense.
Worst Team: New Mexico|4-9, 7, 4, 72%, 44%| New Mexico made strides last season as shown by the graph from Bill C's fantastic work over at SBNation, but that still meant they were still well below but strides have been made. The reason that UNM is here is because the Mountain division is pretty solid and the next worst team is Wyoming who has made strides as well the last couple of seasons. New Mexico should continue to make strides in Bob Davies second season but they still have a ways to go, especially in the pass game and on defense.
Intriguing Team: Utah State|11-2, 8, 7, 57%, 70%| Utah State is intriguing for the same reason as San Jose State but with a higher level of talent throughout the team thanks to the great work of Gary Anderson and staff. With Anderson and co. gone this seaon the Utah State welcomes Matt Wells as the new head coach. Wells was the OC and QB coach last season and is a graduate of Utah State and should bring some continuity to a situation that is always tough to navigate. What is the dropoff for the Aggies in year 1 post Anderson and how will they replace key contributors at the offensive skill positions.
Conference Standings:
West: Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, Nevada, Hawaii & UNLV
Mountain: Boise State, Utah State, Colorado, Air Force, Wyoming & New Mexico
Championship Game: Boise State & Fresno State Winner: Boise State
Monday, July 29, 2013
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
2013 CFB Season Preview: Conference Ranks
With around 40 days until the college football season and only baseball to hold us over until the end of August and well that just isn't exceptable. So I'm gonna spend the next couple weeks previewing the season starting with a conference rankings and breakdown. And then a look ahead breakdown of each conference this season. Let's begin with the independents who I didn't rank because of the difficulty of defining them.
Independents: Add two more to the ranks of the un-homed this season as New Mexico State and Idaho end up on the outside looking in with the colapse of the WAC. The military schools, Navy and Army still reside here although Navy will soon be moving to the American (not sure I like it yet). BYU and Notre Dame have national indentities and should once again be marquee Independents.
Best Team: Notre Dame still has the talent to be a top ten team this year, even with the loss of key defensive players and Everrett Gholson. The roster still has two elite defensive linemen in Louis Nix and Stephen Tuitt, a tandem who comined for 20.5 tackles for loss and a veteran offensive line that should be able to overcome most negatives attributed to Tommy Rees. They should be head and shoulders above BYU this season.
Worst Team: Idaho may be the worst team in the nation and now without a few cupcake WAC games that doesn't seem like there will be a whole lot of improvement this year. With less than average returning starters from last years team (not necesarrily horrible when bad), and add that to well below average recruiting that are associated with the Idaho program. Add in a quarterback with a 54% completion percentage and 4.1 yards per play and a running back with 2 TDs last year 2013 looks pretty bleak.
Now that we have that out of the way let's take a look at how the conferences pan out, I have then ranked in tiers and within tiers to take a look at where the conferences stand.
Tier 4: Overall weak but some bright spots this season will bring optimism
Sun Belt: The Sun Belt has been and will continue to be tthe most common point of entry into the FBS level, this year the conference welcomes Georgia State to the FBS level. Last year the conference was lead in the non-conference by Arkansas State and ULM who showed strength agains some lower tier SEC teams. Unfortunately with the turnover of conference realignment the Sun Belt is clearly the weakest conference.
Conference USA: Conference USA was raided again in the most recet waive of realignment losing Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF, all of whom but Memphis were top tier teams in the conference. To offset the attrition Conference USA raided the Sun Belt and took some of the leftovers of the WAC, joining in 2013 are Louisiana Tech, UTSA, WAC, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee and North Texas. The conference was definitely worsened by realignment but stays a step above the Sun Belt for now because of a handful of teams that should be above average.
Best Team: Arkansas State, has won the conference each of the last two seasons, with two different coaches and are looking to make it a third year in a row. New head coach Bryan Harsin comes to this team from Texas via Boise State but he had some struggles with transitioning at Texas. There is reason for some concern with the turnover at head coach but Arkansas State has brought talent in under the Malzahn and Freeze years and that is a majority of the battle when it comes to being on top in the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette, ULM and WKU will give them a run and I wouldn't be suprised to see the later two win the conference.
Worst Team: Georgia State, it is as simple as Georgia State being in year 2 of football and having very little talent stacking the roster. A move up and being barried deep in the most talented rich part of the country should allow them to pick up some scraps and make strides in the coming years but this years team is in for a rough ride.
Tier 3: Good conferences with strong upper tiers and abysmal lower tiers, aside from AAC stable
Mid-American: The most stable of the mid-majors this offseason the MAC saw no changes to the teams in it's conference, which is good because that means we can all focus on the MACtion this season. The top of league is good with NIU leading the bunch and we won't worry to much about the bottom because no matter how bad the directional Michigan schools get it's still MACtion.
The American: The American adds Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to replace Syrcause and Pitt this season and although Pitt was horrible it had some history to it's name and Syracuse would have been the third or fourth best team in the conference. Louisville is the best team hear but will have to be much more consitant next season to avoid an upset to give it a chance at the BCS Championship Game. The bottom of this conferences features Memphis and UCONN, the former being very much in the running for worst football program in the country at this moment.
Mountain West: The Mountain West would be considered up near the next tier if not for the attrition of TCU, Utah and BYU which combined with Fresno State would have given this conference a chance at 3-5 top 25 teams each year and in most of those years a top 10 team. The current iteration is still solid with two top 25 teams in Boise and Fresno and a dark horse (although popular) in San Jose State. The bottom still looks pretty lean but another year of some middle of the pack teams showing growth will continue to keep this league above the AAC.
Best Team: Louisville, is the best team in the American and with it's Sugar Bowl win in January has ascended to a potential BCS title game and an almost lock to be the BCS rep for the conference. I did give consideration to Boise who is in year 2 post Kellen Moore and should see a good step forward from their QB Starwick. Louisville doesn't have the question at QB and that's what puts them over the top in this tier.
Worst Teams: Memphis, has been bad for years and will continue to be bad, with a school that cares more about it's basketball than football it isn't hard to see this squad being in the bottom 5% of FBS even with new teams moving into the division. A move to the American should help revenue and bring some renewed enthusiasm but that won't improve the talent on the field this season.
Tier 5: Elite conferences but lack of elite top end teams and poor bowl performances leave these two a notch below the rest of the Big 5.
ACC: The ACC has had some elite teams in the last few years but they have an uncanny ability to lose games they shouldn't and then lay eggs in big games. Clemson and Florida State have been the cream of the crop in the ACC but Florida State lost to NC State last year and Clemson lost to the Wolfpack and Georgia Tech in 2011. Va Tech was abysmal last year but has routinely been the best team in the Coastal and among the best in the conference and Miami should put a positive show on this season. New additions from the former Big East in the forms of Syracuse and Pittsburgh don't add much to the football product this season and both should be middle of the pack. This conference may take a step back overall this season but Clemson has National Championship ability, Florida State has immense talent and Miami looks to be sneaky good.
Big Ten: The Big Ten has been dogged the last couple of years for the on the field product and at times for very good reason but it appears the cycle has come back around in the league as some young QBs have matured the last couple of season have matured and should improve the quality of play. Ohio State is the cream of the crop but a grouping of close calls last year still loom as a concern, Michigan State had the opposite problem and should see a normalization in luck and plethora of talent back for the 2013 season. Nebraska brings back a ton of talent as well but the Huskers have had four losses in each sesaon in the Big Ten and need to stop that trend to really make the next big step and fulfill the promise they showed before coming to the league. Wisconsin brought in a Gary Anderson with the departure of Bret Bielema to Arkansas. The league needs a better showing in bowl season and in big non-con games but should have a couple of elite teams and a potential BCS Championship game participant. The low end is still low but there are reasons for optimisms around Indiana and Minnesota, but Purdue and Iowa probably take a step back this season.
Best Team: Ohio State, is the best team out of these two conferences but Clemson definitely deserves to be heard out in this argument. Urban Meyer does great things in year two and Braxton Miller should be a lot of fun to watch. The biggest detraction is definitely some atrition on defense but Meyer has brought in two very talented classes and the cupboards are nowhere near bare.
Worst Team: Wake Forest used to be a team that you could count on to make a run every four years or som when they would pile up a group of seniors and be trouble for the traditional powers. There are no signs of this years team being one of those teams. I also think we see better years out of cellar mates Maryland and Boston College that will make scraping together wins for the Deamon Deacons even more difficult.
Tier 6: The elite conferences, only one has won 7 national championships in a row but all have multiple legitamate National Championship contenders among their ranks and have fertile recruiting grounds in their footprint.
Pac-12: The Pac-12 has had two teams in the top 6 in the final BCS standings each of the past three seasons. I don't expect that to change this season with the talent at both Stanford and Oregon remaining deep and the culture shock at Oregon being at a minimum with good continuity from last years staff. If UCLA can continue on the path the 2012 squad set they would give the conference a third team in the top 10-20 range in the standings and with offensive talent in place they definitely have a chance. What will define the 2013 Pac-12 however is how the teams in the middle perform, Oregon State surprised in 2012 but is that who they are, USC has talent but questoinable depth and questionable coaching has everyone wondering who they are; Can Washington become what we've thought every year of the Sark era and will either of the Arizona schools make the leap that seems within reach in year two of their respective head coaches? The answers to these questions will ultimately define the overall feel of the conference but the top should still be very strong.
Big XII: The Big XII may be the deepest league in country and there are fewer questions about teams 3-7 than in other leagues and their middle tier teams but the elite just don't quite matchup to the top 3 to 5 of the SEC. Texas looks like it is poised to retake the throne in the Big XII they have a bunch of returning starters and talent in the 2 deep but there remains the concerns that this team just hasn't put it all together in a few seasons. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will challenge Texas and both have talented teams but Oklahoma lost a lot from last years team and OK State has had a lot of turnover the last few years and still don't know who will start the year at QB. The Bottom of the conference is bad as well, Kansas is in the running for the worst team in the country and will field a JUCO all-star team, Kansas State lost just about everyone of significance from a special team last year and Texas Tech has a bright future but a present that is less than shining. This will be once again one of the best conferenes to watch each week but their are questions about the abilities at the top and that limits the upside this season.
SEC: Aside from the National Championships, what this conference has accomplished the last few seasons is quite incredible. They have routinely put 3-4 teams in the top ten of the final BCS rankings and two teams in BCS games. They are the only conference of the BCS era to put two teams in the championship game and have been consistantly great in producing pro talent. This season Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Ole Miss can all say to varying degrees that they have the talent to make a BCS bowl. The bottom does have some bad teams but of those Kentucky is the only one who hasn't made noise in the past five years and Missouri just joined the conference and needs to bring it's talent level up. Tennesse is still a blue blood with the means to regain where it was. The bottom line is the top of the league is deeper than any conference in the country and because that depth is 6-7 deep it doesn't matter that there is some riff raff at the bottom.
Best Team: Alabama has the most talent, the best coaching and the best recruiting in the country and are thus the best team. Do they have some holes to fill? Definitely, but with McCarron, Yeldon and Cooper on offense and C.J Mosley, Deion Belue and Vinnie Sunseri on defense this team should be and is the front runner to win the National Championship.
Worst Team: Colorado is the worst team in the BCS conferences and that includes Memphis, this is a school that doesn't invest in footbal and has a derth of talent in all respects. I love the McIntyre hire but it's gonna take atleast three years to see any real and tangible progress and probably 5-6 for them to be competitive in any meaningful way in the Pac-12.
That wraps up my Conference ranks, it took me much longer than I wanted but I hope to have more in-depth write ups on the BCS conferences before the season and maybe a MWC write-up in there as well.
Conference USA: Conference USA was raided again in the most recet waive of realignment losing Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF, all of whom but Memphis were top tier teams in the conference. To offset the attrition Conference USA raided the Sun Belt and took some of the leftovers of the WAC, joining in 2013 are Louisiana Tech, UTSA, WAC, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee and North Texas. The conference was definitely worsened by realignment but stays a step above the Sun Belt for now because of a handful of teams that should be above average.
Best Team: Arkansas State, has won the conference each of the last two seasons, with two different coaches and are looking to make it a third year in a row. New head coach Bryan Harsin comes to this team from Texas via Boise State but he had some struggles with transitioning at Texas. There is reason for some concern with the turnover at head coach but Arkansas State has brought talent in under the Malzahn and Freeze years and that is a majority of the battle when it comes to being on top in the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette, ULM and WKU will give them a run and I wouldn't be suprised to see the later two win the conference.
Worst Team: Georgia State, it is as simple as Georgia State being in year 2 of football and having very little talent stacking the roster. A move up and being barried deep in the most talented rich part of the country should allow them to pick up some scraps and make strides in the coming years but this years team is in for a rough ride.
Tier 3: Good conferences with strong upper tiers and abysmal lower tiers, aside from AAC stable
Mid-American: The most stable of the mid-majors this offseason the MAC saw no changes to the teams in it's conference, which is good because that means we can all focus on the MACtion this season. The top of league is good with NIU leading the bunch and we won't worry to much about the bottom because no matter how bad the directional Michigan schools get it's still MACtion.
The American: The American adds Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to replace Syrcause and Pitt this season and although Pitt was horrible it had some history to it's name and Syracuse would have been the third or fourth best team in the conference. Louisville is the best team hear but will have to be much more consitant next season to avoid an upset to give it a chance at the BCS Championship Game. The bottom of this conferences features Memphis and UCONN, the former being very much in the running for worst football program in the country at this moment.
Mountain West: The Mountain West would be considered up near the next tier if not for the attrition of TCU, Utah and BYU which combined with Fresno State would have given this conference a chance at 3-5 top 25 teams each year and in most of those years a top 10 team. The current iteration is still solid with two top 25 teams in Boise and Fresno and a dark horse (although popular) in San Jose State. The bottom still looks pretty lean but another year of some middle of the pack teams showing growth will continue to keep this league above the AAC.
Best Team: Louisville, is the best team in the American and with it's Sugar Bowl win in January has ascended to a potential BCS title game and an almost lock to be the BCS rep for the conference. I did give consideration to Boise who is in year 2 post Kellen Moore and should see a good step forward from their QB Starwick. Louisville doesn't have the question at QB and that's what puts them over the top in this tier.
Worst Teams: Memphis, has been bad for years and will continue to be bad, with a school that cares more about it's basketball than football it isn't hard to see this squad being in the bottom 5% of FBS even with new teams moving into the division. A move to the American should help revenue and bring some renewed enthusiasm but that won't improve the talent on the field this season.
Tier 5: Elite conferences but lack of elite top end teams and poor bowl performances leave these two a notch below the rest of the Big 5.
ACC: The ACC has had some elite teams in the last few years but they have an uncanny ability to lose games they shouldn't and then lay eggs in big games. Clemson and Florida State have been the cream of the crop in the ACC but Florida State lost to NC State last year and Clemson lost to the Wolfpack and Georgia Tech in 2011. Va Tech was abysmal last year but has routinely been the best team in the Coastal and among the best in the conference and Miami should put a positive show on this season. New additions from the former Big East in the forms of Syracuse and Pittsburgh don't add much to the football product this season and both should be middle of the pack. This conference may take a step back overall this season but Clemson has National Championship ability, Florida State has immense talent and Miami looks to be sneaky good.
Big Ten: The Big Ten has been dogged the last couple of years for the on the field product and at times for very good reason but it appears the cycle has come back around in the league as some young QBs have matured the last couple of season have matured and should improve the quality of play. Ohio State is the cream of the crop but a grouping of close calls last year still loom as a concern, Michigan State had the opposite problem and should see a normalization in luck and plethora of talent back for the 2013 season. Nebraska brings back a ton of talent as well but the Huskers have had four losses in each sesaon in the Big Ten and need to stop that trend to really make the next big step and fulfill the promise they showed before coming to the league. Wisconsin brought in a Gary Anderson with the departure of Bret Bielema to Arkansas. The league needs a better showing in bowl season and in big non-con games but should have a couple of elite teams and a potential BCS Championship game participant. The low end is still low but there are reasons for optimisms around Indiana and Minnesota, but Purdue and Iowa probably take a step back this season.
Best Team: Ohio State, is the best team out of these two conferences but Clemson definitely deserves to be heard out in this argument. Urban Meyer does great things in year two and Braxton Miller should be a lot of fun to watch. The biggest detraction is definitely some atrition on defense but Meyer has brought in two very talented classes and the cupboards are nowhere near bare.
Worst Team: Wake Forest used to be a team that you could count on to make a run every four years or som when they would pile up a group of seniors and be trouble for the traditional powers. There are no signs of this years team being one of those teams. I also think we see better years out of cellar mates Maryland and Boston College that will make scraping together wins for the Deamon Deacons even more difficult.
Tier 6: The elite conferences, only one has won 7 national championships in a row but all have multiple legitamate National Championship contenders among their ranks and have fertile recruiting grounds in their footprint.
Pac-12: The Pac-12 has had two teams in the top 6 in the final BCS standings each of the past three seasons. I don't expect that to change this season with the talent at both Stanford and Oregon remaining deep and the culture shock at Oregon being at a minimum with good continuity from last years staff. If UCLA can continue on the path the 2012 squad set they would give the conference a third team in the top 10-20 range in the standings and with offensive talent in place they definitely have a chance. What will define the 2013 Pac-12 however is how the teams in the middle perform, Oregon State surprised in 2012 but is that who they are, USC has talent but questoinable depth and questionable coaching has everyone wondering who they are; Can Washington become what we've thought every year of the Sark era and will either of the Arizona schools make the leap that seems within reach in year two of their respective head coaches? The answers to these questions will ultimately define the overall feel of the conference but the top should still be very strong.
Big XII: The Big XII may be the deepest league in country and there are fewer questions about teams 3-7 than in other leagues and their middle tier teams but the elite just don't quite matchup to the top 3 to 5 of the SEC. Texas looks like it is poised to retake the throne in the Big XII they have a bunch of returning starters and talent in the 2 deep but there remains the concerns that this team just hasn't put it all together in a few seasons. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will challenge Texas and both have talented teams but Oklahoma lost a lot from last years team and OK State has had a lot of turnover the last few years and still don't know who will start the year at QB. The Bottom of the conference is bad as well, Kansas is in the running for the worst team in the country and will field a JUCO all-star team, Kansas State lost just about everyone of significance from a special team last year and Texas Tech has a bright future but a present that is less than shining. This will be once again one of the best conferenes to watch each week but their are questions about the abilities at the top and that limits the upside this season.
SEC: Aside from the National Championships, what this conference has accomplished the last few seasons is quite incredible. They have routinely put 3-4 teams in the top ten of the final BCS rankings and two teams in BCS games. They are the only conference of the BCS era to put two teams in the championship game and have been consistantly great in producing pro talent. This season Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Ole Miss can all say to varying degrees that they have the talent to make a BCS bowl. The bottom does have some bad teams but of those Kentucky is the only one who hasn't made noise in the past five years and Missouri just joined the conference and needs to bring it's talent level up. Tennesse is still a blue blood with the means to regain where it was. The bottom line is the top of the league is deeper than any conference in the country and because that depth is 6-7 deep it doesn't matter that there is some riff raff at the bottom.
Best Team: Alabama has the most talent, the best coaching and the best recruiting in the country and are thus the best team. Do they have some holes to fill? Definitely, but with McCarron, Yeldon and Cooper on offense and C.J Mosley, Deion Belue and Vinnie Sunseri on defense this team should be and is the front runner to win the National Championship.
Worst Team: Colorado is the worst team in the BCS conferences and that includes Memphis, this is a school that doesn't invest in footbal and has a derth of talent in all respects. I love the McIntyre hire but it's gonna take atleast three years to see any real and tangible progress and probably 5-6 for them to be competitive in any meaningful way in the Pac-12.
That wraps up my Conference ranks, it took me much longer than I wanted but I hope to have more in-depth write ups on the BCS conferences before the season and maybe a MWC write-up in there as well.
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