2021 Fantasy Football - Training Camp R.O.O.C. - ADP Analysis & Adjustments

As promised, here’s part two focusing on the 10 copies of Superflex data with a slight twinge towards TE premium but I wouldn’t say fully TE premium for either draft. That said the first set of results are from a 96-team, 8-copy rookie draft you could draft veterans so you will notice there aren’t exactly 384 picks. The second set is from a 20-team, 2-copy league that contracted from 24-teams so there are 83 picks in that draft. All-in-all it gives us a pretty good idea of where players are going in real drafts and with stakes to give us pretty good ADP data to explore. (Note: Average 1 is of the 8 drafts, Average 2 from the last 2 drafts, and Average 3 is the overall average of all 10)

2021 Fantasy Football - Training Camp R.O.O.C Ranks

 I’ve decided to do a pre-camp version of R.O.O.C. for two reasons: 1) I may have missed Javonte Williams and Tommy Tremble in my first set. 2) I just finished two multi-copy rookie drafts. This gives me the equivalent of 10 drafts worth of rookie data and with one more to go, an update of my rankings and revisiting my immediate thoughts seemed prudent especially because everything is about to get extremely hectic. This is the first of two pieces. This one will be a comparison of my current set of R.O.O.C. ranks, as well as my personal ranks, and where both sets were immediately after the draft.

 

A couple notes, the colors are different tiers, the rankings are sorted by my current standard ranks (column 3), again you’ll see oops for Williams and Tremble as I someone missed them when transcribing rookies from depth charts the first time, something I noticed mid-draft.

 

Player	Position	Team	R.O.O.C.	Post-Draft R.O.O.C.	Standard Rank	Post-Draft Standard Rank
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	1	1	1	1
Najee Harris	RB	PIT	4	4	2	3
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	2	2	3	2
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	3	3	4	4
Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	5	5	5	5
Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	8	Oops	6	Oops
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	9	8	7	6
Trey Sermon	RB	SF	13	16	8	24
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	6	6	9	8
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	7	7	10	7
Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	14	17	11	22
Trey Lance	QB	SF	12	10	12	9
Justin Fields	QB	CHI	17	14	13	13
Kadarius Toney	WR	NYG	11	9	14	12
Elijah Moore	WR	NYJ	10	11	15	10
Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	CAR	16	13	16	11
Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	15	12	17	14
Mac Jones	QB	NE	19	15	18	15
Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	18	19	19	17
Amari Rodgers	WR	GB	20	22	20	19
Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	21	18	21	20
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	22	21	22	16
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	23	20	23	18
Kenny Gainwell	RB	PHI	25	24	24	26
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	26	25	25	27
Cornell Powell	WR	KC	29	40	26	32
Elijah Mitchell	RB	SF	28	37	27	21
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	27	28	28	30
Kyle Trask	QB	TB	33	29	29	36
Kellen Mond	QB	MIN	40	31	30	37
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	24	23	31	33
Khalil Herbert	RB	CHI	30	27	32	23
Anthony Schwartz	WR	CLE	34	30	33	28
Dez Fitzpatrick	WR	TEN	35	46	34	31
Larry Rountree III	RB	LAC	37	36	35	39
D'Wayne Eskridge	WR	SEA	41	-	36	-
Simi Fehoko	WR	DAL	39	34	37	25
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	MIN	42	-	38	-
Kylin Hill	RB	GB	44	35	39	29
Chris Evans	RB	CIN	43	38	40	46
Kene Nwangwu	RB	MIN	32	26	41	34
Jermar Jefferson	RB	DET	31	32	42	38
Trey Ragas	RB	LVR	45	39	43	40
Tutu Atwell	WR	LAR	46	47	44	48
Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	38	Oops	45	Oops
Jaret Patterson	RB	WAS	48	49	46	49
Jake Funk	RB	LAR	49	43	47	41
Javian Hawkins	RB	ATL	52	-	48	-
Davis Mills	QB	HOU	55	41	49	50
Ian Book	QB	NO	57	50	50	51
Hunter Long	TE	MIA	50	-	51	-
Kenny Yeboah	TE	NYJ	60	53	52	45
Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	47	42	53	35
Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	51	-	54	-
Kylen Granson	TE	IND	53	-	55	-
Tylan Wallace	WR	BAL	54	44	56	43
Noah Gray	TE	KC	62	-	57	-
Jaelon Darden	WR	TB	61	61	58	44
Seth Williams	WR	DEN	76	-	59	-
Shi Smith	WR	CAR	75	-	60	-
Jalen Camp	WR	JAX	69	-	61	-
Gerrid Doaks	RB	MIA	36	33	62	47
Feleipe Franks	QB	ATL	66	60	63	54
Deon Jackson	RB	IND	56	45	69	52
Jamie Newman	QB	zFA	157	62	70	54
Spencer Brown (RB)	RB	CAR	59	48	70	53
Tamorrion Terry	WR	zFA	148	59	70	42

 

Sermon and Carter both jump to fringe Rd1 targets in rook rankings and solidly in my back half of round 1 in my standard ranks. For Sermon this is attributable to the Jeff Wilson injury, and for Carter mostly the strengthening of my belief that he’s destined for a sizeable receiving role in his rookie year. Further down two of my favorite picks made jumps in R.O.O.C. but saw slightly contrasting 6 spot moves in my own ranks. Cornell Powell (WR-KC)  and Elijah Mitchell (RB-SF) both moved up just shy of a full round in R.O.O.C. moving from fringe round 3 picks to high end round 3 picks both are players that I liked and fell into good spots to challenge for playing time. In my ranks though I tempered my expectations for Mitchell while boosting Powell, just a bit. Mitchell is behind a player at the same position picked higher in this draft (Sermon) and I felt that I was just a bit too bullish on a player who is starting 4^th on a depth chart even if Shanahan has a penchant for using a robust RB rotation. Powell is in a position to push a handful of vets (Pringle & Robinson) with middling production on a superb offense.

 

For 2QB ranks there isn’t too much different from what we’ve noted above. There is a bit more widening of tiers, the QBs shift to adjusting off my standard rankings but other than that there isn’t too much of note.

 

Player	Position	Team	2QB R.O.O.C.	Post-Draft 2QB R.O.O.C.	2QB Rank	Post-Draft 2QB Rank
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	1	1	1	1
Trey Lance	QB	SF	4	4	2	2
Justin Fields	QB	CHI	7	7	3	3
Zach Wilson	QB	NYJ	6	6	4	5
Mac Jones	QB	NE	8	8	5	4
Ja'Marr Chase	WR	CIN	2	2	6	6
Najee Harris	RB	PIT	9	9	7	8
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	3	3	8	7
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	5	5	9	9
Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	10	10	10	10
Javonte Williams	RB	DEN	12	Oops	11	Oops
Kyle Pitts	TE	ATL	13	12	12	11
Trey Sermon	RB	SF	16	18	13	26
Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	11	11	14	12
Michael Carter	RB	NYJ	17	19	15	24
Kadarius Toney	WR	NYG	15	13	16	15
Elijah Moore	WR	NYJ	14	14	17	13
Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR	CAR	19	16	18	14
Dyami Brown	WR	WAS	20	21	19	17
Amari Rodgers	WR	GB	22	24	20	19
Rondale Moore	WR	ARI	23	20	21	20
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	DET	24	23	22	16
Kyle Trask	QB	TB	18	15	23	21
Kellen Mond	QB	MIN	21	17	24	22
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	25	22	25	18
Kenny Gainwell	RB	PHI	28	27	26	28
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	29	28	27	29
Cornell Powell	WR	KC	33	45	28	34
Elijah Mitchell	RB	SF	32	42	29	23
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	31	32	30	32
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	26	26	31	35
Khalil Herbert	RB	CHI	34	31	32	25
Anthony Schwartz	WR	CLE	37	33	33	30
Dez Fitzpatrick	WR	TEN	38	51	34	33
Larry Rountree III	RB	LAC	40	38	35	39
D'Wayne Eskridge	WR	SEA	43	-	36	-
Davis Mills	QB	HOU	27	25	37	46
Ian Book	QB	NO	30	29	38	47
Simi Fehoko	WR	DAL	42	36	39	27
Ihmir Smith-Marsette	WR	MIN	45	-	40	-
Kylin Hill	RB	GB	48	37	41	31
Chris Evans	RB	CIN	46	43	42	48
Kene Nwangwu	RB	MIN	36	30	43	36
Jermar Jefferson	RB	DET	35	34	44	38
Trey Ragas	RB	LVR	49	44	45	40
Tutu Atwell	WR	LAR	51	52	46	51
Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	41	-	47	-
Jaret Patterson	RB	WAS	53	54	48	52
Jake Funk	RB	LAR	54	47	49	41
Javian Hawkins	RB	ATL	57	-	50	-
Feleipe Franks	QB	ATL	44	39	51	49
Sam Ehlinger	QB	IND	47	41	52	55
Shane Buechele	QB	KC	50	48	53	55
Hunter Long	TE	MIA	55	-	54	-
Kenny Yeboah	TE	NYJ	63	57	55	45
Brevin Jordan	TE	HOU	52	46	56	37
Josh Palmer	WR	LAC	56	-	57	-
Kylen Granson	TE	IND	58	-	58	-
Tylan Wallace	WR	BAL	59	49	59	43
Noah Gray	TE	KC	65	-	60	-
Jaelon Darden	WR	TB	64	65	61	44
Seth Williams	WR	DEN	76	-	62	-
Shi Smith	WR	CAR	75	-	63	-
Jalen Camp	WR	JAX	70	-	64	-
Gerrid Doaks	RB	MIA	39	35	65	50
Jamie Newman	QB	zFA	152	40	70	55
Deon Jackson	RB	IND	60	50	69	53
Spencer Brown (RB)	RB	CAR	62	53	70	54
Tamorrion Terry	WR	zFA	148	64	70	42

 

So, nothing earth shattering in this R.O.O.C. update but I think the second piece here once the 8-copy rookie draft finishes up will be enlightening as it will give us real world data and we can have fun adjusting rankings with ADP in much the same way I do for my overall big board for my season long rankings. Until next time thanks for reading, and happy drafting.