I wanted to do write-ups for this whole mock but I would be working on it until draft day and that does no good because there will assuredly be changes over the whole course. In this mock I have written up the top ten but I have also added a twist and have included my picks for each team with the assumption that I am GM I have trouble each mock after about pick 15 but I found this a very good thought exercise none-the-less. I hope you enjoy and always invite feedback, good or bad.
1) Houston Texans - Jadaveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina: Unless someone makes a reasonable argument why they would go a direction other than this pick or trading down I don't see a change here in the next three weeks. Clowney is the best player in the draft, a freak athlete and it doesn't appear to be a franchise QB in the draft. My Pick: Same
2) St. Louis Rams (Via Washington) - Jake Matthews, OT, Auburn: This pick stays the same as well and the logic remains the same. Matthews is more NFL ready than Robinson and has less question marks. Matthews played on both tackle positions and was a rock at both positions. My pick was the same because I would take Matthews over Robinson and the lack of pass pro snaps for Robinson is the reason. My Pick: Same
3) Jacksonville Jaguars - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville: The Blaine Gabbert experience didn't go the way the Jaguars had planned but so changes are needed to the helm of the Jaguars ship.I think they turn to Bridgewater the new regime won't want to replicate what the old did by taking a project or a QB with accuracy issues. My Pick: Kahlil Mack, OLB, Buffalo: I personally think the Jaguars should take Mack, he is the best player left on the board outside of maybe the two tackles but it would be foolish to use back to back top 3 picks on tackles without addressing your QB situation.
4) Cleveland Browns - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson: Both Manziel and Bortles have concerns about their projections to the next level and how much time it will take to develop them into top flight QBs. Hoyer at worst is a stop-gap for the Browns but the performance last season showed signs of being above average in the league and as Eli Manning has shown that is really all that is necessary. Watkins becomes the pick then, and when added with Josh Gordon there would finally be enough weapons for the first time in a decade. My Pick: Same
5) Oakland Raiders - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: Oakland lost Jared Veldheer in free agency and balked on signing Saffold (good move). With Matthews already off the board Robinson and his immense upside could be a boon for a rebuilding franchise. That upside doesn't come without risks, Robinson lacks refinement in his pass protection. He is a mauler and the worst case scenario is he moves inside but that would be Robert Gallery act two. Not a bad worst case but not what you want out of #5. My Pick: Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville: I'm going the QB route, with the trade of Pryor and the roster weak under center (and most other positions) I'm taking Bridgewater, my top rated signal caller in the draft. His hands and frame are a concern but he made all the throws you want, has enough athleticism to make just about every play you need but he is not a runner which to me reduces the concerns about his stature. That and the fact that he missed no time to injury in his college career.
6) Atlanta Falcons - Kahlil Mack, OLB, Buffalo: The Falcons will almost assuredly miss out on Jadaveon Clowney at six without a trade into the top two and for our purposes here, number one. Mack fills the same type of need in a slightly different way. Mack would play outside line backer in both the Falcons 3-4 and 4-3 sets and be used both as a pass rusher and in coverage. Mack has the athleticism and speed to play in space and would be a great addition to a weak front seven. My Pick: Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: With Mack off the board at number three to Jacksonville and Matthews at two to St. Louis if I was the Falcons brain trust I would take Robinson without a second look. Robinson has the most upside of the three tackles at the top of the draft and is an absolute beast in the run game. The knock for Robinson is his pass protection and the footwork that goes along with that aspect of the position. I believe he can grow into that as it is a lack of passing snaps that is the major problem but you are still risking that he makes that jump quickly and hopefully early in camp.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M: My Pick: Same Tampa Bay lost Mike Williams in the offseason and seem to be set with McCown and Glennon going forward towards this season which shifts the focus to the weapons at the QBs disposal and defensive backs. Evans should be able to fill in Williams' role from last season, with a knack for high pointing the football and a sure set of hands Evans at worst would be able to supplement a deep and red zone threat for a young Tampa Bay squad. Evans isn't a blazer but I never got the impression that he was slower than one would want a wideout to be.
8) Minnesota Vikings - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF: Minnesota drafted Christian Ponder in the 2011 draft, since then he hasn't produced or shown the growth that the Vikings wanted out of what they thought was there franchise altering QB. Matt Cassell is poised to be this years starter but with a new coaching regime, Norv Turner's love for big strong armed QBs and Zimmer's disdane for the Manziel circus I think Vikings will take Bortles with the plan to sit him at least to start the season. My Pick: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama: I like Bortles well enough but I don't think any of the QBs after Bridgewater are high end number one picks or will be all that far above average when the final score is tallied. I do believe that the Vikings should look to their secondary and a way to strengthen a young but improving corps of players. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is the best safety in this class, he has great range and playmaking ability to cover over the top or in man against TEs.
9) Buffalo Bills - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama: Everything I wrote above for my choice of Clinton-Dix applies to why I have the Bills picking him here at number nine. That with the additional loss of Jarius Byrd to free agency. The addition of Clinton-Dix to this secondary would take a small step back short term but would be just as good going forward. My Pick: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State: If Clinton-Dix is there this pick is a no-brainer but with him off the board the task of identifying the best defensive back and that lands at corner, for my purpose I'm using a compilation rankings with some personal preference which brings me to Justin Gilbert. Although not overly tall at 201 pounds Gilbert brings the size and agility to be physical and jump with taller recievers.
10) Detroit Lions - Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State: The Lions finally have promise on the offensive line and have one of the more stout defenisve front four rotations in the NFL but the secondary continues to have significant holes I think this pick comes down to Giblert and Louisville's Calvin Pryor. Gilbert wins out in the Mock because of the increased emphasis on big physical corner backs who can play man against the number one types and with the weapons in the NFC North that is paramount. Gilbert for his case should be an upgrade on what currently populates the Lions roster. My Pick: Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: For me Pryor is the superior player and would probably be my pick here even if I didn't have Gilbert going to the Bills. With Rodgers, Cutler and whoever the Vikings bring in to QB and recievers like Nelson, Patterson, Marshall and Jeffries means that good sideline to sideline help over the top to slow down these weapons. Pryor is not as well known as his QB but has gained traction and should be a healthy addition to any defense.
11) Tennessee Titans - Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA: My Pick: Same
12) New York Giants - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan: My Pick: Same
13) St. Louis Rams - Eric Ebron, TE, UNC: My Pick: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU
14) Chicago Bears - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh: My Pick: Same
15) Pittsburgh Steelers - Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU: My Pick: Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame
16) Dallas Cowboys - Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota: Same
17) Baltimore Ravens - Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech: My Pick: Darqueze Dennard
18) New York Jets - Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State: My Pick: Eric Ebron, TE, UNC
19) Miami Dolphins - Zack Martin, OT/OG, Notre Dame: My Pick: Xavier Su'a-Filo
20) Arizona Cardinals - Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M: My Pick: Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
21) Green Bay Packers - Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: My Pick: C.J Mosley, ILB, Alabama
22) Philadelphia Eagles - Marquise Lee, WR, USC: My Pick: Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
23) Kansas City Chiefs - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State: My Pick: Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
24) Cincinnati Bengals - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State: My Pick: Dee Ford, DE, Auburn
25) San Diego Chargers - Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State: My Pick: Same
26) Cleveland Browns (Via Indianapolis) - C.J. Mosley, LB, Alabama: My Pick: Jason Verrett, CB, TCU
27) New Orleans Saints - Dee Ford, DE, Auburn: My Pick: Marquise Lee, WR, USC
28) Carolina Panthers - Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA: My Pick: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State
29) New England Patroits - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame: My Pick: Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
30) San Francisco 49ers - Jason Verrett, CB, TCU: My Pick: Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame
31) Denver Broncos - Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State: My Pick: Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin
32) Seattle Seahawks - Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri: My Pick: Same
Friday, April 25, 2014
Sunday, April 20, 2014
2014 Sun Belt Preview
One preview down nine to go, the second iteration of this offseason series stays in a relatively similar geographic area but with a different type of flare to it. I don't know what it is, maybe the Internet CFB communities love for the Sun Beast or maybe it's that the we seem to have one or two extremely fun teams coming out of this conference but I get more excited for the Sun Belt than Conference USA and their respective additions, changes, and teams heading into the 2014 college football season.
Subtractions/Additions
The Sun Belt hasn't seen too much poaching from the ranks in recent years but it lost one of the more consistant teams in the conference. Western Kentucky has moved up? Conference USA came calling and WKU jumped, maybe they see it as a stepping stone to a bigger conference but with the current set of realignment it seems more like a lateral move. Additions to the conference come from two places, the independent ranks (via WAC) and FCS. The two WAC outcasts Idaho and New Mexico State add territory to the Sun Belts outreach but as of now nothing else more. Idaho is one of the ten worst teams in FBS and New Mexico State isn't too far behind, they were the dregs of the WAC and should finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt until the right hire is made. There are three additions from the FCS, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern & Georgia State. Georgia State is in a different position from the other two, because they have officially completed the transition from FCS to FBS. App State and Georgia Southern are starting there transition from the FCS ranks, both have had considerate success at the FCS ranks, although App State has had a rough couple of years. I think over the long haul that the additions of App State and Georgia Southern will be able to maintain the level of play we have become accustomed to from the Sun Belt.Recent History
Arkansas State has won outright or shared titles in the Sun Belt the last three season. In 2011 they won under the direction of Hugh Freeze in his first season. Freeze would leave to take the Ole Miss job. The 2012 Sun Belt season once again found Arkansas State at the top of the table and once again with a first year head coach at the helm, this time in the form of Gus Malzahn. Malzahn found himself at Auburn for the 2013 season. 2013 found co-champions, Arkansas State once again with a first year head coach Bryan Harsin. Harsin left this off-season to take the Boise State job in replacement of Chris Peterson. Louisiana-Lafayette disappointed overall as they looked to be the best team in the Sun Belt pre-season but Mark Hudspeth pulled this team together and pulled out a conference championship. Can Arkansas State's
improbable run continue.
improbable run continue.
Coaching Changes
Same old story same old song and dance for Arkansas State, this is the fourth head coach in as many years but this time they approached it differently. The Wolf Pack hired Blake Anderson, formerly the North Carolina OC, to a long term deal with a large buyout to try to stop the year to year poaching. Anderson ran the 35th ranked offense on a per play basis according to Football Outsiders F+ rankings. He should be a welcome addition to Arkansas State and looks to follow the mold of young up and coming talent. The other coaching change is to one of the newcomers to the conference and subdivision. Jeff Monken the HC at Georgia Southern took the Army job when it became available this offseason. Monken helped Ga. Southern to the success that helped move it up to FBS rank. Monken is replaced by Willie Fritz the head coach at Sam Houston State. Frtiz went 40-14 with two National Championship titles under his belt. Fritz should be a solid hire and probably my second favorite hire this season at this level behind Wyoming's hire.
Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % yards), Returning Def (Starters, % tackles) *coach records are career numbers
Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns: (9-4, 17, 8 (Y), 83.5%, 9, 79.4%) Last year was the year that someone was going to knock off Arkansas State in the Sun Belt and Louisiana was the team to do it. Things didn't start off on the right foot for the Rajin' Cajuns though and they shared a conference title. The good news for fans in Lafayette is that this years team brings back a bunch of talent once again and gets a reprieve. Mark Hudspeth and company look to be the class of the Sun Belt once again. Current Head Coach: Mark Hudspeth (93-33) Hired: 2011
Arkansas State Red Wolves: (8-5, 12, 4 (N), 48.4%, 8, 80.7%) I think it would be easy to dismiss the 2014 version of the Red Wolves for a myriad of reasons. First, is the fourth coach in four years dilemma. I don't want to dismiss it because you would expect it to catch up and stunt the progress at the program at some point but it has not had much of a slowing effect yet. Second, the offense has been depleted and although Blake Anderson did very good things at UNC it is always tough to install a new offense with the leader of the squad still uncertain. That being said I trust the administration that hired Anderson implicitly and with a contract that locks him in for a couple years I can't be too pessimistic about this team in a conference that will have a deeper bottom than usual. Current Head Coach: Blake Anderson (0-0) Hired: 2014
ULM Redhawks: (6-6, 13, 5 (N), 64.5%, 8, 76.5%) Todd Berry has done some really fun things with the ULM offense and two years ago reached a rare level of success for the program. Last years team was suppose to be very good but injuries, especially on offense limited the upside of the team. This year's team will have to replace much of the offense and plug a few holes on an experienced defense. A couple years removed from an apex it should be interesting to see what the cupboards bear and whether this coaching staff can keep the program at a reasonable height. Current Head Coach: Todd Berry (52-85) Hired: 2010
Georgia Southern Eagles: (7-4, 16, 8 (Y), 51.3%, 8, 61%) The first of the FCS transfers coming into the conference Georgia Southern beat Florida last season and I'm probably overrating them because of it. They return a lot of starters from last years team but they lose a bunch of key contributors. My biggest worry, however, isn't the level change, or the key players but the loss of what is widely considered an excellent coach. Monken's exit to Army comes at a crucial time for the program that is now moving in a new direction under new management. I hope for competition and a great story that I have overestimated the impact. Current Head Coach: Willie Fritz (137-62) Hired: 2014
Troy Trojans: (6-6, 10, 5 (N), 59.5%, 5, 62.1%) Troy was the most consistently good Sun Belt team last decade but they have slowly sank a little lower each season. Larry Blaekney has shepherded Troy through many changes and 22 seasons but looking at the results you can't help but think that another year or two like the last couple and Larry will be looking for another school to build up to respectable. This team doesn't appear to scream return to competency, as a 6-6 squad from last season returns less than half it's starters. The one saving grace here is that they have some of the more productive players on each side of the ball returning. For Blakeney's sake I hope he can return to the seven and eight win seasons but they have an uphill climb back to that place. Current Head Coach: Larry Blakeney (175-104-1) Hired: 1991
South Alabama Jaguars: (6-6, 14, 8 (N), 80%, 6, 57%) Joey Jones and the Jaguars have two seasons at the FBS level under their belts now but those two seasons are the only two against competent competition to really judge them on. The offense brings back a lot in the way of skill players but at the group of 5 level of FBS there is always consternation surrounding the lack of a returning QB. The defense has to restock about half the positions but with the teams below them being FCS transfers, other relatively new FBS programs I think they fall in just below average for the Sun Belt. All that being said I looked forward to watching this program grow especailly being so young (Started in 2009). Current Head Coach: Joey Jones (34-28) Hired: 2009
Texas State Bobcats: (6-6, 11, 8 (Y), 82.4%, 3, 52.1%) Texas State finished the transition to WAC in 2012 and moved to the Sun Belt in 2013 with the collapse of the WAC. This years squad comes off the heals of the best record at the FCS level for the Bobcats and the offense should be able to build off of that success but the defense is depleted. Returning three starters the defense needs to fill holes and gel quickly to give the offense some room to continue to grow but with 52% of the tackles returning there are some key contributors back. Franchione and company needs to capitalize on a .500 season or at least remain at or above .500 to continue to stamp out a place in the Sun Belt. Current Head Coach: Dennis Franchione (203-121-2) Hired: 2011
Appalachian State Mountaineers: (4-8, 16, 8 (Y), 60.6%, 8, 62%) We all know App State from the 2007 season opener at the Big House but this is a program that won three straight FCS championships from 05-07 and eight straight playoff appearances. Success can be costly and a new head coach last year led to a disappointing record. The notoriety, however, lead to a bit of a recruiting bump even at the FCS level so I think at worst they have low level FBS talent. Year two for Satterfield and company provides a steep learning curve, but another year to install the systems and program culture that they prefer. Current Head Coach: Scott Satterfield (4-8) Hired: 2013
New Mexico State Aggies: (2-10, 11, 8 (N), 63.3%, 3, 35.9%) New Mexico State is the transfer from the Independent ranks that isn't Idaho, which is great for them. The unfortunate part is that they are only slightly better than the Vandals at football. They went 2-10 last season but they lost have of the starting lineup last season including the QB and two thirds of the defensive production. Doug Martin is going to have a relatively long leash and it will be needed. Current Head Coach: Doug Martin (31-63) Hired: 2013
New Mexico State Aggies: (2-10, 11, 8 (N), 63.3%, 3, 35.9%) New Mexico State is the transfer from the Independent ranks that isn't Idaho, which is great for them. The unfortunate part is that they are only slightly better than the Vandals at football. They went 2-10 last season but they lost have of the starting lineup last season including the QB and two thirds of the defensive production. Doug Martin is going to have a relatively long leash and it will be needed. Current Head Coach: Doug Martin (31-63) Hired: 2013
Georgia State Panthers: (0-12, 10, 5 (Y), 44%, 5, 46.4%) At first glance Georgia State and South Alabama have a lot in common, South Alabama started it's program in 2009, Georgia State in 2010. Unlike South Alabama, however, Georgia State has sank straight to the bottom of the conference hit rock bottom at 0-12 last season. Trent Miles was brought in to replace Bill Curry and he should be given more than a year to build talent and a culture within the program but I can't blame anyone for being discouraged and I don't think a young roster is going to help any. Current Head Coach: Trent Miles (20-48) Hired: 2013
Idaho Vandals: (1-11, 15, 8 (Y), 61.8%, 7, 66.2%) I'm gonna keep this short because Idaho football is a wreck but 15 returning players is like putting lipstick on a pig. They should be better but there is still a huge talent void and that doesn't shorten up in one or two seasons, it takes multiple recruiting classes and at worst mediocre seasons. Current Head Coach: Paul Petrino (1-11) Hired: 2013
2014 Predicted Standings
1) Louisiana 2) Arkansas State 3) ULM 4) Troy 5) Georgia Southern 6) South Alabama 7) Texas State 8) New Mexico State 9) Appalachian State 10) New Mexico State 11) Georgia State 12) Idaho
The Sun Belt won't be as good as it has been or would have been with WKU but there is a considerable amount of talent at the top including two teams that should challenge for the group of five New Year's Day bid and hopefully some really fun games with Big 5 schools in the non-conference schedule. Next up is the MAC preview which should be an interesting thought process up top and a very forgettable bottom.
The Sun Belt won't be as good as it has been or would have been with WKU but there is a considerable amount of talent at the top including two teams that should challenge for the group of five New Year's Day bid and hopefully some really fun games with Big 5 schools in the non-conference schedule. Next up is the MAC preview which should be an interesting thought process up top and a very forgettable bottom.
Thursday, April 17, 2014
2014 Conference USA Preview
Alright, I'm gonna try to follow through with what I failed to do last year, which is preview all ten conferences before the start of the college football season. Following my ranking of the conferences I will go from worst to first previewing each conference team by team. Each preview will follow pretty much the same format: Additions/Subtractions (Realignment), Past Champs (Last 3), Coaching Changes, Team Write-ups from best to worst that will include 2013 records, returning starters on offense and defense (Thanks Phil Steele), % of Yards and Tackles returning (Thanks Bill Connelly), Current Head Coach. All that is too say there is gonna be a lot of information, personal conjecture, blatant guessing and hopefully we all come out of it with a better understanding of the 2014 college football season. (For more process information look at the Explanation of Process page on the right side)
Rice Owls (West, 10-4, 12, 6 (N), 48.8%, 6, 63.3%) Rice is the defending champion of the conference and return a bit over half the roster but the offense is depleted losing over half the yards gained last year including the starting QB. The defense returns more playmakers than the offense but still need to replace a good portion of the starting lineup. Rice brings back enough to be the favorite in the division but they need to make sure the assimilation of new starters is a quick one because there are some veteran laden teams in the west that will be looking for any weakness to take them down. Current Head Coach: David Bailiff (61-63) Hired: 2007
UTSA Roadrunners (West, 7-5, 19, 9 (N), 79.6%, 10, 82%) UTSA comes into this season losing only 3 starters from last years team, which was one of the best Larry Coker has had since he took over at UTSA. Even without a returning quarterback this roadrunners team is deep just about everywhere and has returning talent to not force any of the younger two deep into a situation that might be disastrous. Rice is still the best team in the division but UTSA is gonna be a stingy out this season and a real contender for the CUSA crown. Current Head Coach: Lary Coker (79-30) Hired: 2009
WKU Hilltoppers (East, 8-4, 11, 8 (Y), 54.9%, 3, 24%) Third head coach in three years, this time comes from inside the program already. Jeff Brohm has worked on two of Bobby Petrino's staffs and he has some talent to work with on the offensive side of the ball. But the defense is a mess returning a quarter of the tackles from last year and only 3 starters. Brohm seems like a good hire and WKU should be middle of the road the conference but this won't be an elite year for the Hilltoppers. Current Head Coach: Jeff Brohm (0-0) Hired: 2014
North Texas Mean Green (West, 9-4, 9, 5 (N), 37.7%, 4, 55.2%) 2013 Mean Green was one of the most successful iterations of recent memory. But with a scant 9 players returning and most of the offensive difference makers leaving this could be a struggle for McCarney and company. With a depleted conference there should still be enough foundation to be a mid tier team. Current Head Coach: Dan McCarney (74-104) Hired: 2011
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (East, 8-5, 11, 4 (N), 69.9%, 7, 72.4%) Middle Tennessee has been one of the more consistent mid majors over the last 5 seasons and with a fair bit of talent returning in 2014 they should continue that solid if not spectacular run that they have had under Rick Sotckill. The biggest red flag is the lack of a returning QB which at a group of 5 school can spell disaster even with returning peripheral talent. Current Head Coach: Rick Stocktill (51-49) Hired: 2006
Old Dominion Monarchs (East, 8-4, 17, 8 (Y), 81%, 9, 81.8%) Old Dominion finds itself in a new conference and a new level of competition. And I've put them seventh in a thirteen team conference. This may seem high but they played well at the FCS level and I have no confidence in the bottom of the conference. Current Head Coach: Bobby Wilder (46-14) Hired: 2009
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (West, 4-8, 13, 6 (Y), 68.9%, 7, 72.1%) Skip Holtz was hired after being booted from USF to replace a very impressive run Sonny Dykes. Holtz's 2014 team brings back an average amount from last seasons squad that underperformed. Year two at La Tech will bring us closer to finding out if Holtz is more like his ECU days or his USF days. Current Head Coach: Skip Holtz (92-79) Hired: 2013
UAB Blazers (East, 2-10, 14, 6 (N), 66.2%, 8, 74.2%) Bill Clark's sole year at Jacksonville State was impressive but he takes over a stagnant UAB team that brings back a plenty on defense but needs to adapt to a coaching change. Clark will needs to recruit well in a talent rich area of the country and to dig up the gems if he wants to enforce any kind of significant change in Birmingham. Current Head Coach: Bill Clark (11-4) Hired: 2014
FAU Owls (East, 6-6, 10, 5 (Y), 58.8%, 5, 60.8%) FAU has been a mess for, well, a while and but last year showed a significant increase in output. This season team brings some playmakers back but also has to replace over half of each side of the ball. A returning QB always helps a team in this situation but this team needs to build off of it's success last season. Current Head Coach: Charlie Patridge (0-0) Hired 2014
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (West, 1-11, 15, 8 (Y), 55%, 7, 78.1%) Of the bottom three teams in my rankings for this conference this is the team I'm most worried about coming back to bite me in the ass. Three years ago this team lost a couple of games and then fell apart when the coaching staff almost completely turned over. But that doesn't change the fact that there has to be some talent left on this team and with over half the offense back and two thirds of tackles from last year coming back this team has the chance to surprise some people. Current Head Coach: Todd Monken (1-11) Hired: 2013
UTEP Miners (West, 2-10, 16, 9 (Y), 72.6%, 7, 67.3%) The middle of the trio of teams that were really bad last season but return a lot and they sit about as highly in my opinion as Southern Miss and FIU, lots of talent coming back still gonna be bad. Kugler is in for the long haul and a surprisingly good season in year two could give him the rope to make significant and long lasting change in El Paso. Current Head Coach: Sean Kugler (2-10) Hired: 2013
FIU Panthers (East, 1-11, 18, 11 (Y), 58.8%, 7, 64.6%) FIU brings back a bunch of starters from a squad that wen 1-11 and that could mean one of two things. It could mean that this team will take another step forward with a more experienced roster or it means that FIU brings back a bunch of players that just aren't that talented. I tend to lean toward the latter. Oh and one last aside, firing Mario Cristobal was a gigantic waste of a supremely talented coach and asset. Current Head Coach: Ron Turner (43-72) Hired: 2013
Subtractions/Additions
Conference USA has seen major change over the last couple of seasons, with realignment at the upper levels ending with the break up of the old Big East, CUSA was once again raided for teams to fill up the now named American athletic conference. CUSA lost Memphis, Houston UCF and SMU to the AAC last season and this year lost East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa. ECU and Tulsa had been two of the more consistent teams in the conference with Tulsa falling off last season and Tulane being bad for most of the past decade. Too me ECU is the big loss this season, but they are replaceable. Coming in to fill the void left by the trio of departures are, WKU from the Sun Belt and Old Dominion which is making the transition from FCS to FBS. WKU has been good if not exceptional team in the Sun Belt, but has reached its zenith under the tutelage of Willie Taggert who left two years ago for USF and then a one year stint from vagabond Bobby Petrino, they are a solid if not spectacular addition to the conference roll call. Old Dominion finished above .500 in each of the four seasons it competed at the FCS including two trips to the playoffs, they aren't as well known or successful as Georgia Southern or Appalachian State but they do show an ability to move up in rank and succeed and that is a good trait in a new team.Recent History
No conference champ has repeated in the last three seasons, 2011 Southern miss was there last competent team they have had, 2012 Tulsa dropped off after there championship season and 2013 Rice is yet to be determined but I do have hope that they will buck the recent trend in drop offs for former champions.
Coaching Changes
There was relative stability in the Conference USA coaching ranks this off-season, with only 2 coaching changes it stands to reason that some of the under performing teams have staffs that need to make tangible improvements. UAB is one of those under performing teams but are saved the uncertainty of the hot seat because last seasons head coach joined the staff of the other departing head coach from the conference, Bobby Petrino. Garrick was under a good amount of pressure to produce results as his Blazers teams had stagnated over the last couple of seasons, he seized the opportunity to coach in the ACC even if that meant a demotion (or what amounts more to a lateral move). Garrick is replaced at UAB by Bill Clark, the head coach formally at Jacksonville State where he took the Gamecocks to there best record since 1992 and a quarterfinal appearance in the FCS playoffs. Petrino for his part in the Carousel is on his third job in as many seasons, two years ago he was at Arkansas where a long standing affair was discovered, along with other transgressions, after a motorcycle accidents with his mistress. He jumped at the chance to take the WKU which was seen as a one year stop gap before a BCS gig opened up and Louisville's did with the departure of Charlie Strong to Texas. With the departure of Petrino WKU looked inside the program for stability and their next coach. Jeff Brohm, brother of Brian Brohm former Louisville QB, takes over a program that is at the highest point in the history of the program. Brohm has been an assistant head coach multiple times and OC at a few stops but this is his first test running the whole show.
Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % yards), Returning Def (Starters, % tackles) *coach records are career numbers
Marshall Thundering Herd (East, 10-4, 13, 6 (Y), 60.4%, 7, 85.9%), The Thundering Heard were the conference runner up last season and the champions of the East division. With 13 returning starters The Herd and a returning quarterback they position themselves well in the East to make another run at the championship game. Marshall needs to replace their top running back and two of their top three WR but a loaded defense brings back most of the top playmakers from a good squad last season. They should be the class of the conference. Current Head Coach: Doc Holliday (27-24) Hired: 2010Rice Owls (West, 10-4, 12, 6 (N), 48.8%, 6, 63.3%) Rice is the defending champion of the conference and return a bit over half the roster but the offense is depleted losing over half the yards gained last year including the starting QB. The defense returns more playmakers than the offense but still need to replace a good portion of the starting lineup. Rice brings back enough to be the favorite in the division but they need to make sure the assimilation of new starters is a quick one because there are some veteran laden teams in the west that will be looking for any weakness to take them down. Current Head Coach: David Bailiff (61-63) Hired: 2007
UTSA Roadrunners (West, 7-5, 19, 9 (N), 79.6%, 10, 82%) UTSA comes into this season losing only 3 starters from last years team, which was one of the best Larry Coker has had since he took over at UTSA. Even without a returning quarterback this roadrunners team is deep just about everywhere and has returning talent to not force any of the younger two deep into a situation that might be disastrous. Rice is still the best team in the division but UTSA is gonna be a stingy out this season and a real contender for the CUSA crown. Current Head Coach: Lary Coker (79-30) Hired: 2009
WKU Hilltoppers (East, 8-4, 11, 8 (Y), 54.9%, 3, 24%) Third head coach in three years, this time comes from inside the program already. Jeff Brohm has worked on two of Bobby Petrino's staffs and he has some talent to work with on the offensive side of the ball. But the defense is a mess returning a quarter of the tackles from last year and only 3 starters. Brohm seems like a good hire and WKU should be middle of the road the conference but this won't be an elite year for the Hilltoppers. Current Head Coach: Jeff Brohm (0-0) Hired: 2014
North Texas Mean Green (West, 9-4, 9, 5 (N), 37.7%, 4, 55.2%) 2013 Mean Green was one of the most successful iterations of recent memory. But with a scant 9 players returning and most of the offensive difference makers leaving this could be a struggle for McCarney and company. With a depleted conference there should still be enough foundation to be a mid tier team. Current Head Coach: Dan McCarney (74-104) Hired: 2011
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (East, 8-5, 11, 4 (N), 69.9%, 7, 72.4%) Middle Tennessee has been one of the more consistent mid majors over the last 5 seasons and with a fair bit of talent returning in 2014 they should continue that solid if not spectacular run that they have had under Rick Sotckill. The biggest red flag is the lack of a returning QB which at a group of 5 school can spell disaster even with returning peripheral talent. Current Head Coach: Rick Stocktill (51-49) Hired: 2006
Old Dominion Monarchs (East, 8-4, 17, 8 (Y), 81%, 9, 81.8%) Old Dominion finds itself in a new conference and a new level of competition. And I've put them seventh in a thirteen team conference. This may seem high but they played well at the FCS level and I have no confidence in the bottom of the conference. Current Head Coach: Bobby Wilder (46-14) Hired: 2009
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (West, 4-8, 13, 6 (Y), 68.9%, 7, 72.1%) Skip Holtz was hired after being booted from USF to replace a very impressive run Sonny Dykes. Holtz's 2014 team brings back an average amount from last seasons squad that underperformed. Year two at La Tech will bring us closer to finding out if Holtz is more like his ECU days or his USF days. Current Head Coach: Skip Holtz (92-79) Hired: 2013
UAB Blazers (East, 2-10, 14, 6 (N), 66.2%, 8, 74.2%) Bill Clark's sole year at Jacksonville State was impressive but he takes over a stagnant UAB team that brings back a plenty on defense but needs to adapt to a coaching change. Clark will needs to recruit well in a talent rich area of the country and to dig up the gems if he wants to enforce any kind of significant change in Birmingham. Current Head Coach: Bill Clark (11-4) Hired: 2014
FAU Owls (East, 6-6, 10, 5 (Y), 58.8%, 5, 60.8%) FAU has been a mess for, well, a while and but last year showed a significant increase in output. This season team brings some playmakers back but also has to replace over half of each side of the ball. A returning QB always helps a team in this situation but this team needs to build off of it's success last season. Current Head Coach: Charlie Patridge (0-0) Hired 2014
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (West, 1-11, 15, 8 (Y), 55%, 7, 78.1%) Of the bottom three teams in my rankings for this conference this is the team I'm most worried about coming back to bite me in the ass. Three years ago this team lost a couple of games and then fell apart when the coaching staff almost completely turned over. But that doesn't change the fact that there has to be some talent left on this team and with over half the offense back and two thirds of tackles from last year coming back this team has the chance to surprise some people. Current Head Coach: Todd Monken (1-11) Hired: 2013
UTEP Miners (West, 2-10, 16, 9 (Y), 72.6%, 7, 67.3%) The middle of the trio of teams that were really bad last season but return a lot and they sit about as highly in my opinion as Southern Miss and FIU, lots of talent coming back still gonna be bad. Kugler is in for the long haul and a surprisingly good season in year two could give him the rope to make significant and long lasting change in El Paso. Current Head Coach: Sean Kugler (2-10) Hired: 2013
FIU Panthers (East, 1-11, 18, 11 (Y), 58.8%, 7, 64.6%) FIU brings back a bunch of starters from a squad that wen 1-11 and that could mean one of two things. It could mean that this team will take another step forward with a more experienced roster or it means that FIU brings back a bunch of players that just aren't that talented. I tend to lean toward the latter. Oh and one last aside, firing Mario Cristobal was a gigantic waste of a supremely talented coach and asset. Current Head Coach: Ron Turner (43-72) Hired: 2013
2014 Predicted Standings
East: 1) Marshall 2) WKU 3) Middle Tennessee 4) UAB 5) Old Dominion 6) FAU 7) FIU
West: 1) Rice 2) UTSA 3) North Texas 4) Louisiana Tech 5) Southern Miss 6) UTEP
Conference Championship: Rice at Marshall
That concludes the first conferene rundown for the season, I pale in comparison to Bill Connelly at SBNatoin but I think it's fun and it helps me think critically about certain teams. Conference USA doesn't excite me much but Marshall and Rice should be entertaining to say the least and have a chance at the Group of Five New Years Day bid. I hope you enjoyed this, the next conference up will be the Sun Belt and I hope to have it out before the end of the month.
Saturday, April 12, 2014
1st 2014 NFL Mock Draft
My first mock this year, with the draft being later I wanted to wait to do this first one. Hope you like it.
1) Houston Texans - Jadaveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina: Defense wasn't the issue last year I know that but I don't think that Houston has any quarterback with an overly high grade and if you don't love the QB don't force it with this pick. With Clowney there is a lot to like, he has athleticism to spare and the burst to outpace just about everyone out of the gate. Needs to work on his power move, but is built like a brick shithouse. Motor has been questioned, but I think it is overblown. Lastly, This & This...
2) St. Louis Rams (Via Washington) - Jake Matthews, OT, Auburn: Keeping Sam Bradford upright is the biggest task for 2014 St. Louis, a talented team has been put around him but he's been injury prone. They did just resign Rodger Saffold but I don't think there should be a great amount of faith put into his ability to grow into a top flight player on the left side. Matthews may not have the upside of Robinson, but he is a more polished product and gives the front office a better option to make an impact this season.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville: Jacksonville didn't have success in transforming Blaine Gabbert into even an average NFL quarterback, they traded Gabbert to San Francisco for a 6th rounder and possibly a conditional pick. In Bridgewater they get the most NLF ready QB in the draft and a pretty good player, who should improve the team right away. This is a long rebuild but I have faith in the new regime.
4) Cleveland Browns - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson: If Cleveland believes any QB in the draft is a franchise QB then they should draft that player. I don't believe they think there is and that is why I have Watkins here. The best offensive playmaker in the draft Watkins, does everything well and is a pretty good route runner already & hands that bring in just about everything. Watkins and Gordon is a scary combo but they need someone to throw them the ball, Hoyer might be that guy and I think he's worth the shot and I think Cleveland may think that too.
5) Oakland Raiders - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: With Veldheer leaving in free agency, Oakland needs a bell cow to anchor the end of the line. Robinson has room to grow but is a first rate mauler and has the athleticism to grow into an elite pass blocker as well. Oakland could very well go QB here but without the foundation to support that player what does the future hold other than a David Carr like existance.
6) Atlanta Falcons - Kahlil Mack, OLB, Buffalo: Atlanta needs front 7 help on D and OLine help and Mack gives them that elite player at the OLB position, a position they have tried numerous times to fill. Mack is explosive and refined technically and should be a welcome addition to a defense with trouble on the front end of the defense.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M: Mike Williams was traded for a sixth round pick to the Buffalo Bills and there isn't much left on the roster at the WR position. Evans would provided McCown (really Tampa?) or Glennon with a secondary weapon alongside Vincent Jackson that would come down with just about every ball. Evans brings the whole package and the only downside to his game may be lack of top end speed.
8) Minnesota Vikings - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF: Since drafting Christian Ponder in the first round two years ago the Vikings have made the playoffs on the back of AP and had troubles scoring points with any regularity. Ponder hasn't grown under the old regime and with a new cast running the show a fresh start at the most important position on the field appears to be in the cards. Bortles for his part looks like you'd want your QB to look, standing 6' 5" 252 lbs and a good amount of athleticism. The army may be just slightly above average but the bigger problem is the inconsistency and lack of refined footwork (also affects velocity). If the Vikings think they can fix these mistakes and if they can give him time to sit, maybe behind Cassel, then they pull the trigger like I have them doing.
9) Buffalo Bills - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama: The lastest product of the Crimson Tide looks like a difference maker in the back 4. During free agency the Bills lost Jarius Byrd and have a huge hole at safety and Ha Ha should be able to step in there and make a contribution. With an invigoration of the front 7 to a respectable group an infustion of talent on the back end is needed.
10) Detroit Lions - Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State: The Lions still need a WR to compliment Johnson and Tate but with such a deep crop of wideouts and Watkins/Evans gone they need to look elsewhere. Bring in Justin Gilbert the top rated CB in the draft and a stud from Oklahoma State. An upgrade on the outside is an imperative with a very good front four and an improved linebacking corps I think this is a no-brainer for Detroit.
11) Tennessee Titans - Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA: Barr slips from his preseason expectations as a top 5-10 pick. The Titans need help outside and should be enthused by a player who possesses great burst off the edge. Barr needs some polishing and isn't as much of a finished prospect as a Mack is but he was a top 10 player to start the year for a reason and that's because he is one hell of an athlete.
12) New York Giants - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan: The Giants have no record of picking LBs or OLs with their first round picks and I may move off this pick as we continue to get closer to the draft but for now this is it. Lewan would move into the lineup right away and add youth along with Justin Pugh last years #1 pick. Pugh at RT and Lewan at LT would be bookends of a line trending up instead of to the grave.
13) St. Louis Rams - Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: The second best safety in the draft and the last of the top tier Pryor was a strong player and should slot in at FS for the Rams. Filling another spot behind a very good defensive line should continue to improve this unit under Jeff Fischer. The additions of Matthews and Pryor should shore up big holes on this Rams roster.
14) Chicago Bears - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh: Aaron Donald is the biggest riser of the year, unheralded coming into the year Donald splashed onto the scene at pit with 59 Tackles, 28.5 Tkls for Loss and 11 sacks while picking up most of the honors for defensive linemen this offseason. An explosive player from DT, his run technique needs to be refined and honed but when getting after the QB there weren't many that slowed him down at the college level. He's short at 6-1 but against very good competition at the Senior Bowl he kept wonderful pad level discipline and routinely won the leverage battle. Donald should be a force in the middle for the Bears for many years.
15) Pittsburgh Steelers - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State: Pittsburgh has many holes to fill as an aging roster and some poor resource management are starting to show cracks in the steel city. Dennard has his detractors but a feisty CB who won't shy from contact and fights a reciever down the field seems to fit the identity of this defense. Dennard needs to work on footwork in and out of his turns but working with a great coaching staff should help him in that regard.
16) Dallas Cowboys - Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State: Last time we saw Jernigan was on winded on the sidelines in the fourth quarter of the national title game against Auburn. I can cut him slack on this because Auburn plays at a ridiculous pace and wore down many a front seven player this season when it had an advantage and wants to wear you down. Jernigan in the middle of this line with the loss of Ware a presence in the middle will be a welcome addition.
17) Baltimore Ravens - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame: Ngata is getting old and Nix is the best player available in my mind and Nix would fit great in the Ravens 3-4 scheme. Nix was a starter the last couple of years for the Fighting Irish and helped to anchor a defense that was the best unit of a team that went to the national championship two years ago. Nix need some work on technique but you don't find guys his size that move the way he does and that's valuable on its own.
18) New York Jets - Marquise Lee, WR, USC: Jets acquired Decker this off-season but still lack a stable of weapons to help Geno Smith take a step forward in his sophomore campaign. Lee had a rough year in 2013 with an increased drop rate but much of his lack of production can be attributed to the dearth of good QB play at USC. The Jets could look for O-Line help or help in the back end at this position as well.
19) Miami Dolphins - Zack Martin, OT/OG, Notre Dame: The Dolphins need help along the offensive line in a big way, Jonathan Martin was suppose to fill one of the tackle spots but he's now in San Fran post Incognito so the Dolphins are left with a sieve like line. Martin can play Guard or Tackle but definitely profiles higher inside. The Dolphins need help plain and simple and Martin makes them better up front.
20) Arizona Cardinals - Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M: Arizona sits just outside the playoffs but have an aging Carson Palmer at QB and no real good contingency plan outside of that. Manziel falling is to the Cardinals gain as they get the second best QB in the draft and have the roster to allow him to sit behind the vet Palmer and grow a bit in the professional scene. Manziel for his part is a dynamic talent that showed the ability to improve in his post Heisman season. Character concerns should only go so far as a deterrent to drafting him.
21) Green Bay Packers - C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama: If Mosley falls this far in May then Thompson and Co. will run this pick to the podium. Mosley would pair nicely with Hawk on the inside and provide a player that plays sideline to sideline with athleticism and the ability to match up with TEs. Mosley was a consistently good player for Saban and staff in Tuscaloosa and should contribute from day one in the NFL.
22) Philadelphia Eagles - Odell Beckham Jr, WR, LSU: With the release of DeSean Jackson a couple weeks back the Eagles need at WR went from we need one to fill out the depth chart to we need one to start yesterday. Beckham Jr brings those kind of abilities with his game. Not on the same level of Watkins and Evans but Beckham is a talent and should be able to anchor a receiving corps for the next 10 years.
23) Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Ebron, TE, UNC: The best talent at the TE position in this draft Ebron won't fulfill any of the requirements for blocking from the TE position. Ebron can stretch the field on the stream and has the hands and route running ability to be a threat underneath. Should add an explosive complement to Bowe on the outside.
24) Cincinnati Bengals - Dee Ford, DE, Auburn: Ford was the fastest riser coming out of Senior Bowl week but injury concerns have arose since then. None of that takes away from the fact that he is a quick twitch athlete off the edge and showed the strength to beat some of the best players in this years draft. Ford would give the Bengals a speed compliment to Geno Atkins from the DE position and a greater rush asset to a talented defensive backfield
25) San Diego Chargers - Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech: Fuller is working his way up the draftnik rankings and looking more and more like he will move into the mid first round. He's got everything you'd want out of a cornerback, good hips, quick feet and an understanding of the game. Fuller stood out in the game against Alabama and was solid all year.
26) Cleveland Browns (Via Indianapolis) - Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State: Roby struggled this season and the microcosms of that are evident in the Wisconsin game against Jared Abbredaris. Roby got beat over the top with sloppy footwork on a number of occasions. That being said he has the athleticism to recover from mistakes and the ball skills to pull down the ball. Obviously needs to work on the consistency at the next level but the top end talent is there and that is worth the risk for a Browns defense that is putting together a talented young corps.
27) New Orleans Saints - Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA: Su'a Filo may be the best guard in the draft, it's close between him and Martin who I had going much earlier in the round. Xavier started three seasons for the Bruins, spent two years on a mission in the middle but is developed and has a good head on his shoulders. With him on the inside the Saints line should have fewer problems keeping an aging Drew Brees upright this season.
28) Carolina Panthers - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State: Benjamin is a raw talent with the ability to stretch the field which should be an asset for Cam Newton. Benjamin doesn't run the crispest routes but this is a pick that stretches the field now and develop a young talent into the future.
29) New England Patroits - Ra'Shead Hageman, DT, Minnesota: Hageman is a disruptive force in the middle with sloppy technique but the flashes are amazing. Hageman would have a year to watch and learn with Vince Wilfork before assuming more of a role on the defense. A talent like this late in the first is a pick ripe for the Patroits taking.
30) San Francisco 49ers - Jason Verrett, CB, TCU: Verrett is an undersized player, but that is not to say that he should be overlooked. Verrett plays with solid leverage on the outside and battles on every play and has the ability to high point the ball which is will be of the utmost importance against bigger and stronger players in the NFL.
31) Denver Broncos - Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State: Shazier can play just about any linebacking position but with the Broncos I think he would upgrade one of the inside linebacking slots. Shazier has great ability to get sideline to sideline along with enough straight line athleticism to cover tight ends and slot recievers over the middle. I think Shazier would be a great pick up for a team that needs to upgrade just a couple positions to try to make another run with Peyton Manning.
32) Seattle Seahawks - Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri: Ealy is a good athlete with limited polished moves but good hips and strong performance in the SEC. Ealy may not be the most polished but in a system like the Seahawks he would be able to mold that raw talent much the way they have worked with the talent of Bruce Irvin. Ealy is a bit of a project but a talented project.
That does it for the first round. This will all change in a matter of days but that is the fun of draft season.
1) Houston Texans - Jadaveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina: Defense wasn't the issue last year I know that but I don't think that Houston has any quarterback with an overly high grade and if you don't love the QB don't force it with this pick. With Clowney there is a lot to like, he has athleticism to spare and the burst to outpace just about everyone out of the gate. Needs to work on his power move, but is built like a brick shithouse. Motor has been questioned, but I think it is overblown. Lastly, This & This...
2) St. Louis Rams (Via Washington) - Jake Matthews, OT, Auburn: Keeping Sam Bradford upright is the biggest task for 2014 St. Louis, a talented team has been put around him but he's been injury prone. They did just resign Rodger Saffold but I don't think there should be a great amount of faith put into his ability to grow into a top flight player on the left side. Matthews may not have the upside of Robinson, but he is a more polished product and gives the front office a better option to make an impact this season.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville: Jacksonville didn't have success in transforming Blaine Gabbert into even an average NFL quarterback, they traded Gabbert to San Francisco for a 6th rounder and possibly a conditional pick. In Bridgewater they get the most NLF ready QB in the draft and a pretty good player, who should improve the team right away. This is a long rebuild but I have faith in the new regime.
4) Cleveland Browns - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson: If Cleveland believes any QB in the draft is a franchise QB then they should draft that player. I don't believe they think there is and that is why I have Watkins here. The best offensive playmaker in the draft Watkins, does everything well and is a pretty good route runner already & hands that bring in just about everything. Watkins and Gordon is a scary combo but they need someone to throw them the ball, Hoyer might be that guy and I think he's worth the shot and I think Cleveland may think that too.
5) Oakland Raiders - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: With Veldheer leaving in free agency, Oakland needs a bell cow to anchor the end of the line. Robinson has room to grow but is a first rate mauler and has the athleticism to grow into an elite pass blocker as well. Oakland could very well go QB here but without the foundation to support that player what does the future hold other than a David Carr like existance.
6) Atlanta Falcons - Kahlil Mack, OLB, Buffalo: Atlanta needs front 7 help on D and OLine help and Mack gives them that elite player at the OLB position, a position they have tried numerous times to fill. Mack is explosive and refined technically and should be a welcome addition to a defense with trouble on the front end of the defense.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M: Mike Williams was traded for a sixth round pick to the Buffalo Bills and there isn't much left on the roster at the WR position. Evans would provided McCown (really Tampa?) or Glennon with a secondary weapon alongside Vincent Jackson that would come down with just about every ball. Evans brings the whole package and the only downside to his game may be lack of top end speed.
8) Minnesota Vikings - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF: Since drafting Christian Ponder in the first round two years ago the Vikings have made the playoffs on the back of AP and had troubles scoring points with any regularity. Ponder hasn't grown under the old regime and with a new cast running the show a fresh start at the most important position on the field appears to be in the cards. Bortles for his part looks like you'd want your QB to look, standing 6' 5" 252 lbs and a good amount of athleticism. The army may be just slightly above average but the bigger problem is the inconsistency and lack of refined footwork (also affects velocity). If the Vikings think they can fix these mistakes and if they can give him time to sit, maybe behind Cassel, then they pull the trigger like I have them doing.
9) Buffalo Bills - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama: The lastest product of the Crimson Tide looks like a difference maker in the back 4. During free agency the Bills lost Jarius Byrd and have a huge hole at safety and Ha Ha should be able to step in there and make a contribution. With an invigoration of the front 7 to a respectable group an infustion of talent on the back end is needed.
10) Detroit Lions - Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State: The Lions still need a WR to compliment Johnson and Tate but with such a deep crop of wideouts and Watkins/Evans gone they need to look elsewhere. Bring in Justin Gilbert the top rated CB in the draft and a stud from Oklahoma State. An upgrade on the outside is an imperative with a very good front four and an improved linebacking corps I think this is a no-brainer for Detroit.
11) Tennessee Titans - Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA: Barr slips from his preseason expectations as a top 5-10 pick. The Titans need help outside and should be enthused by a player who possesses great burst off the edge. Barr needs some polishing and isn't as much of a finished prospect as a Mack is but he was a top 10 player to start the year for a reason and that's because he is one hell of an athlete.
12) New York Giants - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan: The Giants have no record of picking LBs or OLs with their first round picks and I may move off this pick as we continue to get closer to the draft but for now this is it. Lewan would move into the lineup right away and add youth along with Justin Pugh last years #1 pick. Pugh at RT and Lewan at LT would be bookends of a line trending up instead of to the grave.
13) St. Louis Rams - Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: The second best safety in the draft and the last of the top tier Pryor was a strong player and should slot in at FS for the Rams. Filling another spot behind a very good defensive line should continue to improve this unit under Jeff Fischer. The additions of Matthews and Pryor should shore up big holes on this Rams roster.
14) Chicago Bears - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh: Aaron Donald is the biggest riser of the year, unheralded coming into the year Donald splashed onto the scene at pit with 59 Tackles, 28.5 Tkls for Loss and 11 sacks while picking up most of the honors for defensive linemen this offseason. An explosive player from DT, his run technique needs to be refined and honed but when getting after the QB there weren't many that slowed him down at the college level. He's short at 6-1 but against very good competition at the Senior Bowl he kept wonderful pad level discipline and routinely won the leverage battle. Donald should be a force in the middle for the Bears for many years.
15) Pittsburgh Steelers - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State: Pittsburgh has many holes to fill as an aging roster and some poor resource management are starting to show cracks in the steel city. Dennard has his detractors but a feisty CB who won't shy from contact and fights a reciever down the field seems to fit the identity of this defense. Dennard needs to work on footwork in and out of his turns but working with a great coaching staff should help him in that regard.
16) Dallas Cowboys - Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State: Last time we saw Jernigan was on winded on the sidelines in the fourth quarter of the national title game against Auburn. I can cut him slack on this because Auburn plays at a ridiculous pace and wore down many a front seven player this season when it had an advantage and wants to wear you down. Jernigan in the middle of this line with the loss of Ware a presence in the middle will be a welcome addition.
17) Baltimore Ravens - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame: Ngata is getting old and Nix is the best player available in my mind and Nix would fit great in the Ravens 3-4 scheme. Nix was a starter the last couple of years for the Fighting Irish and helped to anchor a defense that was the best unit of a team that went to the national championship two years ago. Nix need some work on technique but you don't find guys his size that move the way he does and that's valuable on its own.
18) New York Jets - Marquise Lee, WR, USC: Jets acquired Decker this off-season but still lack a stable of weapons to help Geno Smith take a step forward in his sophomore campaign. Lee had a rough year in 2013 with an increased drop rate but much of his lack of production can be attributed to the dearth of good QB play at USC. The Jets could look for O-Line help or help in the back end at this position as well.
19) Miami Dolphins - Zack Martin, OT/OG, Notre Dame: The Dolphins need help along the offensive line in a big way, Jonathan Martin was suppose to fill one of the tackle spots but he's now in San Fran post Incognito so the Dolphins are left with a sieve like line. Martin can play Guard or Tackle but definitely profiles higher inside. The Dolphins need help plain and simple and Martin makes them better up front.
20) Arizona Cardinals - Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M: Arizona sits just outside the playoffs but have an aging Carson Palmer at QB and no real good contingency plan outside of that. Manziel falling is to the Cardinals gain as they get the second best QB in the draft and have the roster to allow him to sit behind the vet Palmer and grow a bit in the professional scene. Manziel for his part is a dynamic talent that showed the ability to improve in his post Heisman season. Character concerns should only go so far as a deterrent to drafting him.
21) Green Bay Packers - C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama: If Mosley falls this far in May then Thompson and Co. will run this pick to the podium. Mosley would pair nicely with Hawk on the inside and provide a player that plays sideline to sideline with athleticism and the ability to match up with TEs. Mosley was a consistently good player for Saban and staff in Tuscaloosa and should contribute from day one in the NFL.
22) Philadelphia Eagles - Odell Beckham Jr, WR, LSU: With the release of DeSean Jackson a couple weeks back the Eagles need at WR went from we need one to fill out the depth chart to we need one to start yesterday. Beckham Jr brings those kind of abilities with his game. Not on the same level of Watkins and Evans but Beckham is a talent and should be able to anchor a receiving corps for the next 10 years.
23) Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Ebron, TE, UNC: The best talent at the TE position in this draft Ebron won't fulfill any of the requirements for blocking from the TE position. Ebron can stretch the field on the stream and has the hands and route running ability to be a threat underneath. Should add an explosive complement to Bowe on the outside.
24) Cincinnati Bengals - Dee Ford, DE, Auburn: Ford was the fastest riser coming out of Senior Bowl week but injury concerns have arose since then. None of that takes away from the fact that he is a quick twitch athlete off the edge and showed the strength to beat some of the best players in this years draft. Ford would give the Bengals a speed compliment to Geno Atkins from the DE position and a greater rush asset to a talented defensive backfield
25) San Diego Chargers - Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech: Fuller is working his way up the draftnik rankings and looking more and more like he will move into the mid first round. He's got everything you'd want out of a cornerback, good hips, quick feet and an understanding of the game. Fuller stood out in the game against Alabama and was solid all year.
26) Cleveland Browns (Via Indianapolis) - Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State: Roby struggled this season and the microcosms of that are evident in the Wisconsin game against Jared Abbredaris. Roby got beat over the top with sloppy footwork on a number of occasions. That being said he has the athleticism to recover from mistakes and the ball skills to pull down the ball. Obviously needs to work on the consistency at the next level but the top end talent is there and that is worth the risk for a Browns defense that is putting together a talented young corps.
27) New Orleans Saints - Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA: Su'a Filo may be the best guard in the draft, it's close between him and Martin who I had going much earlier in the round. Xavier started three seasons for the Bruins, spent two years on a mission in the middle but is developed and has a good head on his shoulders. With him on the inside the Saints line should have fewer problems keeping an aging Drew Brees upright this season.
28) Carolina Panthers - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State: Benjamin is a raw talent with the ability to stretch the field which should be an asset for Cam Newton. Benjamin doesn't run the crispest routes but this is a pick that stretches the field now and develop a young talent into the future.
29) New England Patroits - Ra'Shead Hageman, DT, Minnesota: Hageman is a disruptive force in the middle with sloppy technique but the flashes are amazing. Hageman would have a year to watch and learn with Vince Wilfork before assuming more of a role on the defense. A talent like this late in the first is a pick ripe for the Patroits taking.
30) San Francisco 49ers - Jason Verrett, CB, TCU: Verrett is an undersized player, but that is not to say that he should be overlooked. Verrett plays with solid leverage on the outside and battles on every play and has the ability to high point the ball which is will be of the utmost importance against bigger and stronger players in the NFL.
31) Denver Broncos - Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State: Shazier can play just about any linebacking position but with the Broncos I think he would upgrade one of the inside linebacking slots. Shazier has great ability to get sideline to sideline along with enough straight line athleticism to cover tight ends and slot recievers over the middle. I think Shazier would be a great pick up for a team that needs to upgrade just a couple positions to try to make another run with Peyton Manning.
32) Seattle Seahawks - Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri: Ealy is a good athlete with limited polished moves but good hips and strong performance in the SEC. Ealy may not be the most polished but in a system like the Seahawks he would be able to mold that raw talent much the way they have worked with the talent of Bruce Irvin. Ealy is a bit of a project but a talented project.
That does it for the first round. This will all change in a matter of days but that is the fun of draft season.
Thursday, April 3, 2014
2014 College Football Conference Rankings
It has been quite some time since I last posted and that is a something I'm not too proud of but I'm going to try to do a better job this summer and next football season. Anyhow, onto the important part, we start the off seasons preview with a preliminary ranking of the conferences. Futile? Maybe, but I've found that by breaking them down against each other I have a better platform to discuss each individually and to put them into context. Before I get to the actual rankings, however, let's take a look how the conferences have changed since last season (or will later this year). First, we have the conferences that stayed unchanged from last season. This group consists of the Big XII, Mid-American (MAC), Mountain West (MWC), Pac-12, and Southeastern (SEC). Starting in the 2014 season these changes have been made to the American Athletic Conference (AAC), Atlantic Coast (ACC), Big Ten (B1G), Conference USA (CUSA), and Sun Belt (SBC)... (For more information on my process check out the Explanation of Process page)
AAC: Lost - Louisville (ACC) & Rutgers (B1G) Added - East Carolina (CUSA), Tulane (CUSA), & Tulane (CUSA)
ACC: Lost - Maryland (B1G) Added - Louisville (AAC)
B1G: Added - Maryland (ACC) & Rutgers (AAC)
CUSA: Lost - East Carolina (AAC), Tulane (AAC), & Tulsa (AAC) Added- Old Dominion (FCS Trans*) & WKU (SBC)
SBC: Lost - WKU (CUSA) Added - Appalachian State (FCS Trans*), Georgia Southern (FCS Trans.*), Georgia State (FCS), Idaho (Indep.), & New Mexico State (Indep.)
*-Transitional team from FCS to FBS, not yet a full member of the FBS or the confrence that team is entering
In one way or another the altered conferences and the unaltered are all affected within the construct of rankings, so to compare this seasons results we next must look at last years ranks.
Tier 1: SEC, Big XII, & Pac-12 Tier 2: B1G & ACC Tier 3: MWC, AAC, & MAC Tier 4: CUSA & SBC Tier V: Independents
Now that we see how we went into last season, let's dive into a preliminary look at this year. With the odd-ball tier...
I used the roman numeral here to denote that it wasn't a tier ranked on fair ground with the rest because it isn't a conference and is just a conglomeration of teams without homes. This season there are two lest independents as Idaho and New Mexico State, WAC vagabonds, found a home in the Sun Belt. This leaves us with four, Army, BYU, Navy, & Notre Dame.
Best Team: Notre Dame, a National Title contender two seasons ago, 2013 was a rough year but with the losses at BYU Notre Dame still is the cream of the independents.
Worst Team: Army, I wish the academy schools were better but they just don't have the resources to compete and there is that pesky enlistment after graduation limiting those entering the academy.
AAC: Lost - Louisville (ACC) & Rutgers (B1G) Added - East Carolina (CUSA), Tulane (CUSA), & Tulane (CUSA)
ACC: Lost - Maryland (B1G) Added - Louisville (AAC)
B1G: Added - Maryland (ACC) & Rutgers (AAC)
CUSA: Lost - East Carolina (AAC), Tulane (AAC), & Tulsa (AAC) Added- Old Dominion (FCS Trans*) & WKU (SBC)
SBC: Lost - WKU (CUSA) Added - Appalachian State (FCS Trans*), Georgia Southern (FCS Trans.*), Georgia State (FCS), Idaho (Indep.), & New Mexico State (Indep.)
*-Transitional team from FCS to FBS, not yet a full member of the FBS or the confrence that team is entering
In one way or another the altered conferences and the unaltered are all affected within the construct of rankings, so to compare this seasons results we next must look at last years ranks.
Tier 1: SEC, Big XII, & Pac-12 Tier 2: B1G & ACC Tier 3: MWC, AAC, & MAC Tier 4: CUSA & SBC Tier V: Independents
Now that we see how we went into last season, let's dive into a preliminary look at this year. With the odd-ball tier...
Tier V: Independents
I used the roman numeral here to denote that it wasn't a tier ranked on fair ground with the rest because it isn't a conference and is just a conglomeration of teams without homes. This season there are two lest independents as Idaho and New Mexico State, WAC vagabonds, found a home in the Sun Belt. This leaves us with four, Army, BYU, Navy, & Notre Dame.
Best Team: Notre Dame, a National Title contender two seasons ago, 2013 was a rough year but with the losses at BYU Notre Dame still is the cream of the independents.
Worst Team: Army, I wish the academy schools were better but they just don't have the resources to compete and there is that pesky enlistment after graduation limiting those entering the academy.
Tier 4: Conferences with really bad bottoms that negate any positives at the top.
CUSA: Conference USA slides a spot this season for one reason and one reason only, they lost three teams to the AAC and brought in WKU. The attrition wouldn't have been so bad but the AAC took East Carolina which has been a staple of good if not very good football and Tulane and Tulsa which have taken turns at being good for the last 30 seasons. This season Conference USA looks to Marshall and Rice to lead the way but those observing from the outside will see plenty of bad football at the bottom of both divisions.
SBC: The Sun Belt loses WKU which has been a stalwart for the conference for the last half decade or so. The additions of top tier FCS schools like Appalachian State and Georgia Southern should soften that blow some but the additions of the leftovers from the WAC keep the bottom of this conference pretty soft in 2014. The bright spot here is that Louisiana & Arkansas State should be bright spots in the non-conference and post season as both bring back talented rosters for the level.
Best Team: Louisiana (SBC), Suppose to be the cream of the conference last season, Louisianan and Mark Hudspeth bring back most of a team that underwhelmed in 2013. The depth across the board and the lessons from a broken season give this team a bunch of promise.
Worst Team: Idaho (SBC), A lot to choose from with the riff raff at the bottom of both leagues but Idaho has been a laughing stock for almost a decade now and shows no sign of slowing after a 1-11 season last year.
Tier 3: Conferences with better middles but lack the upside to really challenge the Big 5 conferences.
MAC: Again no changes for the MAC in 2014, although change is coming next season, but the departure of some elite level talent will hurt the overall product in the league. As usual the coaching ranks were plundered as Big 5 schools looked for up and comers to lead their programs but stars like Jordan Lynch and Kahlil Mack have left for the greener pastures of the NFL. Solid programs at the top and a couple of intriguing teams in the middle keep the MAC out of Tier 4 but a down year after the loss of so much talent and they may not stay up for long.
AAC: The AAC is the biggest loser in this round of realignment, because the loss of Louisville compounds the losses of Pitt and Syracuse from a year ago. Once a borderline Tier 2 conference with all the benefits of a BCS auto-bid the AAC now finds itself fighting the "Little Sisters of the Poor" for their shot at glory and their piece of the pie. The additions of East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa don't do much for the conference image other than place the AAC in a spot similar to the old CUSA, which should produce some years of intriguing upside but be cast in a shadow of mediocrity.
MWC: Much like the MAC the Mountain West didn't change this season and looks poised to be the best of the Group of 5 conferences heading forward. Boise State finds itself under new management but a familiar face in year 1 of the post-Peterson era, but Brian Harsin will have his work cut out for him to continue the success of his old boss and predecessor. With the turmoil in Boise, Utah State & Colorado State should look to make strides and fight to make this conference the best of the rest.
Best Team: Boise State (MWC), this pick could look horrible a couple weeks into the season, once we realize how difficult the hole left by Chris Peterson but there is some talent in the coffers and everyone else has weak spots to address.
Worst Team: Western Michigan (MAC), really could have been a handful of MAC bottom dwellers but WMU has been a model of futility for a few years now and new management won't be able to turn that around year 1. Hopefully we see progress out of the Broncos this year but I don't see the talent in town to make this campaign much better than the last couple.
Tier 2: A new arrival, two stalwarts of this level and a conference with a problem.
ACC: The conference with the problem has last years national champion and Orange Bowl champion but it still lacks what it needs to move up in these rankings. Virginia Tech has fallen off and left a void for challenger that the conference hopes they and Louisville can fill and the constant shake up of the middle and bottom of the conference never leaves a hierarchy that lasts or build confidence for more than a year or two. Improvements by Miami or sustained success for a team like Duke or UNC would go a long way in seeing this conference differently.
B1G: The Big Ten has it's own problem and that begins and ends with it's win/loss record in bowl games, especially those against the SEC. With two teams in BCS bowls and shifting upwards of all bowl participants the conference shows little sign of that subsiding anytime soon. The bonus for the Big Ten over the ACC however is that although there is a significant drop off at the bottom the middle of the league has strengthened and a resurgence solidity of Minnesota and Iowa should boost the profile. Maryland and Rutgers don't add much but Maryland does have a recruiting base that should allow it to grow in the right environs.
Big XII: The biggest mover and only tier jumper in this years rankings are the Big XII which moved down becuase of the lack of elite teams at the top of the conference. Baylor looks like the only real National Title contender but spots 2-7 are extremely solid and with such solidity in the middle this conference doesn't have the uncertainties around it that the others in this tier do.
Best Team: Florida State (ACC), Florida State is the reigning national champion and possibly the best team in the country with the return of Jameis Winston, although there was a lot of attrition off of last years squad this should still be one of the most dangerous teams in the country in 2014.
Worst Team: Kansas (Big XII), the decided strategic advantage narrowly beat out Purdue for the worst spot in this tier. A whole bushel of JUCO transfers didn't have the desired effect in Lawrence and the result was continued dismal returns for a Jayhawks squad that hasn't really recovered after Mark Mangino left.
Tier 1: Elite conferences with multiple title contending and playoff contending teams.
Pac-12: The Pac-12 has no changes in 2014 and the conferences itself looks to be trending upwards after a very good series of hires last season. Rich Rod showed improvements at Arizona that manifested in a victory over Oregon late in the year. Todd Graham make immediate improvements in Tucson and made great strides year one. Mike Leach started slow but made some waves at Washington State and should continue to make waves both on and off the field. Jim Mora at UCLA pushed for a conference title and calmed a lot of fears about his ability to adjust to the college game. Sonny Dykes seems to be the only year one that didn't show a lot of positives but even that doesn't dampen the spirits in Berkley. Add the addition of Chris Peterson in Washington, the loss of Lane Kiffin from the conference and you have a set of coaches that should be envied by most conferences. This is all without mentioning that Stanford and Oregon should be bell cows for the conference. The Pac-12 should be a lot of fun this season again and may challenge the SEC for depth of elite teams at the top.
SEC: Once again I have the SEC as the top conference in the land but the divide is certainly not as big as it has been in some seasons the past decade or so. The top still boasts multiple challengers for national championships in Alabama, Auburn and LSU and the second tier looks very dangerous with Ole Miss, Georgia, South Carolina and maybe Florida if they get their stuff together. The bottom may be a bit weaker than it has in the past with Vandy taking a hit with the loss of a great coaching staff and Kentucky continuing its struggles. All in all this should still be one of the toughest and most competitive conferences in the country.
Best Team: Alabama (SEC), still the most talented team in the country and arguably the best coached, Nick Saban made some staff changes this off-season and brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the country to bolster a roster with a ridiculous amount of talent.
Worst Team: Colorado (Pac-12), I loved the Mike MacIntyre hire last and I still do but the turnaround at Colorado will be a long haul and needs patience. First off will be bringing in a greater talent base and developing overlooked players and that takes time. So unfortunately I don't see it happening for Colorado this season but they should keep moving forward under the current regime.
That does it for the conference rankings to start off the off-season. This is just the stepping stone to pieces I hope to write on each conference and what to watch for this upcoming season.
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