The idea here, for my
purpose, is to get an idea of the rookies we think will have an impact on the
fantasy season and who will be in the best place to do so. All current string
assumptions are based on the great site Ourlads who has an extensive bunch of
depth charts. As always let me know if there is a glaring omission and I will
tell you if I agree or why I don’t. (If the past is any indication none of you
will and that’s a bummer. I wanna here what you think.)
So here it is the top
30. These are all the players I think have a decent chance to crack the top two
on the depth chart (For WR this means 3rd, 4th, 5th
receivers.). You will notice there are only two TEs in the bunch stemming from
the lack of usefulness of a 2nd string TE. You will also notice the
top two picks in the draft are relatively low, stemming from their usefulness
year one.
The Rankings (Player, Pos, Tm, Current String, Projected String)
1) Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers, Starter, Starter | Gordon
lands in the best position of any skill position. Behind a solid line, with a
high quality QB and coaching staff with all the opportunity. Gordon will to
show greater patience, but he is more talented than Brandon Oliver and Danny
Woodhead.
2) Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee Titans, 3rd, Starter
| Kendall Wright is a nice place to start for a receiving corps but
Green-Beckham is taller, more athletic and a true #1. Yes Green-Beckham has a
rookie (Mariota) throwing the ball to him but Josh Gordon was a master class in
ignoring QBs when talking freak WR talent.
3) Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams, Starter, Starter | “But,
Brock?” you say, “Gurley is coming off an ACL surgery and might not be ready
for camp.” You plead. To that I say, Gurley would have been my top player in a
perfect world but some concern over his utility year one drops him to third.
He’s worth the risk and once he gets rolling he isn’t relinquishing that
starting job.
4) Nelson Agholor, WR, USC, Starter, Starter | Agholor may not have
been the splash on draft day that many Eagles fans wanted but he’s refined
enough to produce year one in Philadelphia. This is banking on an assumption of
80% of Jeremy Maclin’s production last year and Kelly needed an outside threat
to utilize. He’s immediately the #1 on this team and should be considered as
such.
5) Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders, Starter, Starter | The
difference between Cooper and #6 White is slight for me. They each have QB
question marks, but Cooper doesn’t have an established receiver across from him
and White has Alshon. Cooper was also a more polished product and therefore
gets the edge.
6) Kevin Whtie, WR, Chicago Bears, Starter, Starter | White comes
into a nice situation but the question of which Cutler or which QB is the only
concern here. As mentioned earlier by the Josh Gordon Principle I think both he
and Jeffery get theirs and White has a nice productive rookie season.
7) T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2nd, Starter | Yeldon
is going to get a lot of work this season for the Jaguars and although I wasn’t
a huge fan of the pick he is NFL ready and probably the most patient runner of
the rookies. Add that to the rumor that Gerhart is going to get more work at
the H, It looks likely that Yeldon starters with Robinson spelling as a change
of pace back.
8) Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons, 2nd, Starter | Coleman
was a divisive back amongst draftniks but I think the upside is too much to
pass up here. Devante Freeman was a nice story last season but I think Coleman
gets first crack at the starting job with Freeman being the second half of a
lightning-lightning combo.
9) David Cobb, RB, Tennessee Titans | I know it’s been one year but
Bishop Sankey is not the answer. Sankey may be able to be a nice piece, a third
guy, a low upside choice in a combo situation but probably not much more. Cobb
doesn’t bring the high ceiling but he has a twitch at the line and in the hole
that Sankey doesn’t. Cobb was very productive on a Gophers team last season
that didn’t have a passing game and I don’t see why, if given the opportunity
he won’t work out in Tennessee.
10) Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina Panthers, 2nd, Starter | He’s
not a TE and he isn’t going to be for the Panthers, especially with Greg Olsen
there. Funchess is a space eater, with good range and a pretty unimpeded path
to a starting job. This is all based on moving Cotchery inside and I don’t
think this is unheard of.
11) Jaelan Strong, WR, Houston Texans, 2nd, Starter | Strong
slipped in the draft much farther than I thought he would, but he landed in a
nice spot. I see him moving into the starting rotation for the Texans as the
season moves toward us and I see that faciliatated by moving Shorts inside to
the slot and a three receiver set of Hopkins, Shorts and Strong. That all being
said the QB situation is still troubling and limits the upside of Strong.
12) Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens, 2nd, Starter | Perriman
has been brought in to replace Torrey Smith as the stretch receiver and I don’t
see a reason he won’t be able to take over that role. Perriman will almost
definitely see less targets early on than Smith would have been he’s still a
high upside pick with a QB that loves to chuck it down field.
13) Devante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins, 2nd, 2nd/1st
| Parker is a favorite of mine with this college group but he has obstacles
to his advancement in the depth chart that I think will slow his impact in the
first half of the season. When he does get his chances he should shine. With
plus body control and a competitive streak Parker should be pushing Jennings
for the outside receiver position.
14) Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins, 4th, 2nd | Ajayi
slid way too far in the draft and ends up in a place where he has a good chance
to challenge for the top spot and should be the number two back coming out of
training camp. Ajayi is a fluid back who needs to do a better job of finding
the hole without bouncing his runs outside.
15) Rashad Greene, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars, 4th, 2nd
| Greene is a possession receiver in the classical sense, think Ed
McCaffery or Mushin Muhammed. Greene was Winston’s go to last year and was the
most consistent receiver two years ago on the national championship team.
Greene will compete with Hurns and Streeter in camp but a threesome of Marques
Lee, Allen Robinson and Greene in the slot would be a great set of targets for
Bortles to grow up with.
16) Buck Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens, 3rd, 2nd | Allen
is not a well-known commodity for most people but he’s a downhill, power back
that should beat out Taliaferro and be a good spell for Forsett especially late
in the year.
17) Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions, 3rd, 2nd |
Abdullah is your Bush replacement. He should be able to contribute right
away as a change of pace and I believe with work on his pass blocking he has
top back upside a couple years down the road. Abdullah should be a nice spark
and something for opponents to worry about.
18) David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals, 3rd, 2nd
| Johnson is immensely talented, with a high upside, but he needs
refinement. Even small steps forward in patience would make him a strong
contender for the starting job.
19) Maxx Williams, TE, Baltimore Ravens, Starter, Starter | Williams
is the first non-RB/WR to get on the board and that’s because at best he will
just be in the middle of the pack of a group of good enough TEs that won’t be
Graham or Gronk. Williams steps into a great place, Flacco loves his tight end
and with a vertical passing game the underneath stuff is always open and Williams
has shown a propensity to make plays that count.
20) Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Starter, Starter | Winston
goes to a Tampa, a team with no line (although they are trying) and a great set
of weapons. As long as they keep it simple Winston should have a pretty good
shot to be a productive quarterback. That being said he needs to keep his poor
choices to a minimum or at least to inopportune times or the nay-sayers are
going to be out in force early in his rookie year.
21) Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans, Starter, Starter | I wish
he was in a position to sit this year but he’s still a starter and that
distinction lands him here. Mariota has some weapons to rely on and I think the
most important is Kendall Wright. I know Green-Beckham is bigger and more
talented but Wright is a weapon that a rookie can rely on for good routes and
to be in the places he’s supposed to be in. Add that to a rushing attack with a
lot of question Mariota could have a sneaky good rookie year.
This is where we get the less certain impact of 3rd string
RBs and 2nd string WRs.
22) Josh Robinson, RB, Indianapolis Colts, 4th, 2nd/3rd
| Robinson is an intriguing talent. A natural runner with wiggle and that
big ol’ butt you’ll here ex-scouts talk about Robinson would be much higher up
if Gore hadn’t been signed. With Gore signed, Robinson will probably split some
time with Herron as the spill backs for Gore.
23) Mario Alford, WR, Cincinnati Bengals, 4th, 2nd
| Alford was the less acclaimed receiver out of West Virginia but he
flashed at times and I see him as a great candidate to be 2015’s Martavis
Bryant. Alford is on a team that needs a player that can force the seam to take
pressure off of A.J. Green. He needs to beat out Demarious Moore, more teams
than we can count Brandon Tate and Marvin Jones. The latter is the toughest
sell but Bryant wasn’t expected to produce year one in Pittsburgh.
24) Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks, 3rd, 2nd
| The Seahawks broke the bank to get up the draft and pick Lockett and I
love the player hate the price. That being said, he should contribute on
returns early and has to at least have a chance to make the starting lineup at
the slot at some point. College defenses had no answer for Lockett, so we’ll
see what NFL slot receivers can do.
25) Clive Walford, TE, Oakland Raiders, 3rd, Starter | Walford
is the only other tight end I see starting but he isn’t in the lineup that
Williams is in and he isn’t the talent that Williams is. That said young QBs
have been known to lean on tight ends and two young guys in Carr and Walford
may form a bond easier than a young guy and an older QB.
26) Trae McBride, WR, Tennessee Titans, 3rd, 2nd
| McBride is a favorite of a lot of draftniks and an under-the-radar player
for the Titans. The Titans depth chart is good but McBride may be a better year
two pick-up than a year one pick-up. But I’m saying there’s a chance.
27) DeAndre Smelter, WR, San Francisco 49ers, 3rd, 2nd
| Smelter was the better of the Georgia Tech receivers and has great upside.
I don’t think he’ll see too much playing time year one but late in the year is
a possibility and it’s all dependent on his rehab this offseason. This is pure
speculation or dynasty consideration.
28) Devin Smith, WR, New York Jets, 3rd, 2nd | I
could imagine a world where Smith shows off at rookie OTAs, then at Training
camp and features as the outside receiver opposite Marshall with Decker at the
slot. I don’t think it’s incredibly likely, but There is a clear vision and I
might be way too low on Smith year one.
29) Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Redskins, 3rd, 2nd
| Crowder is a solid player who has probably maxed out on most of his
potential but what he lacks in upside he makes up for with consistency. Crowder
was very good at Duke and should at least push Roberts and Grant for that slot
role inside of Garcon and Jackson.
30) Sammie Coates, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers, 2nd, 2nd
| Martavis Bryant 2.0, a slot role or a stash player. Coates has
consistency issues but he was clearly the Steelers best player available at the
time and they certainly will find spots now and then for him.