Combine weigh-ins started today and I'm not yet done with defensive primer but I thought I should get this out today with line and running back workouts coming on Friday. I’m still not completely sure how I’m going to
approach it this year, but I am hoping to watch more tape to pair with, what I
think are, better production statistics as jumping off point. What I hope to do
here is highlight the draft eligible players that topped my production charts
before we get too deep into the draft season. And I’ll try my best to note any
players outside of the top producers that I know of and think are worth noting
(this will almost certainly get muddled).
Quarterbacks
Always a great place
to start because it is the premier position in football. Everyone who has a
good one won’t let him go, everyone who lacks a competent one is desperate to
find one. Now as a reminder these are just production based numbers, and while
generally find these to be the best set of production numbers I’ve used, QB is
incredibly difficult to grade well based on statistics.
(Player | Class |
School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Attempts | Adj.
Yards/Attempt | Completion% | Sack% | Production Rating)
Highest Producers
Baker Mayfield | Sr | Oklahoma (BXII) | 6’ 2”, 216 lbs
404 Att | 12.84 AY/A
| 70.54% | 6.00% | 7.84
Mason Rudolph | Sr | Oklahoma State (BXII) | 6’ 5”, 230 lbs
489 Att | 10.66 AY/A
| 65.03% | 4.50% | 6.249
Riley Ferguson | Sr | Memphis (AAC) | 6’ 4”, 210 lbs
474 Att | 9.67 AY/A |
63.08% | 4.20% | 5.564
Logan Woodside | Sr | Toledo (MAC) | 6’ 2”, 210 lbs
411 Att | 9.88 AY/A |
64.23% | 5.10% | 5.491
John Wolford | Sr | Wake Forest (ACC) | 6’ 1”, 200 lbs
374 Att | 9.31 AY/A |
63.90% | 3.90% | 5.413
Alright, so of the top
five Mayfield is the only one really in the first round conversation, and for
good reason. Mayfield is what we all talked ourselves into with Johnny Manziel.
His Big XII compatriot Mason Rudolph falls second and that’s not surprising as
adjusted yards per attempt is the highest component of my new production rate.
I’ve started watching some Rudolph, and accuracy is concerning so far, but his
receivers make any throw catchable. Ferguson has made the post-Lynch/Fuente era
much easier, but much like Rudolph he’s aided by a very good pair of receivers.
I’m going to be honest with you, I don’t know much about Logan Woodside and
even less about John Wolford. So, they will definitely be worth a watch here as
we move closer and closer to the Combine, pro days, and the draft.
Names to Know
Josh Rosen | Jr | UCLA (P12) | 6’ 4”, 220 lbs
452 Att | 8.42 AY/A |
62.61% | 5.40% | 4.581
Lamar Jackson | Jr | Louisville (ACC) | 6’ 3”, 211 lbs
430 Att | 8.68 AY/A |
59.07% | 6.30% | 4.866
Sam Darnold | R.So | USC (P12) | 6’ 4”, 220 lbs
480 Att | 8.46 AY/A |
63.13% | 5.70% | 4.880
Mike White | Sr | WKU (AAC) | 6’ 4”, 221 lbs
560 Att | 7.71 AY/A |
65.71% | 7.40% | 4.689
Josh Allen | Wyoming (MWC) | 6’ 5”, 237 lbs
270 Att | 6.85 AY/A |
56.30% | 7.50% | 3.441
So, at this moment, I
have another five players that I currently know enough about to say they’re
notable. They are in the order I currently see them, with White and Allen tied.
Let’s start with the elephant in every discussion, Josh Allen. I see everything
that big fans of Allen see: big arm, athleticism, flash throws. What I don’t
see, and what separates him from, say, Mahomes is the consistency and play
against high level competition. Over the past 2 seasons he’s played 3 power
five opponents, Boise State twice, and a San Diego State team twice in 2016
with legitimate NFL secondary talent. In those 7 games he went 126 for 247
(51.01%), for 6.66 yards per attempt, and 13 TDs and 15 INTs. The upside is
there, but we know that players rarely get more accurate at the next level which
leaves me seeing a player worth a shot in rounds 2 or 3, not the top of the
first. Alright, back to the top of my names to know. Rosen is my QB1 right now,
he’s the best over the middle of the field, he’s intelligent, and he’s willing
to fit the ball into tight spaces. Jackson and Darnold are going to be tough to
separate as I see it now, but Jackson get’s the slight lead because I like his
feet better in the pocket and the fact that he has gotten better each of the
last three seasons both statistically and as a player. Darnold isn’t a bad
player, and he does a great job of throwing outside the pocket, but his feet
are currently a mess in the pocket and showed more inconsistency year two than
year one. Mike White showed out at the senior bowl, and played very well
despite a challenging season at WKU, he’s the high floor, big bodied, but
limited mirror to Allen.
So that’s a nice
primer to QBs in this year’s draft and a lot of study, thought, and yelling
left in the draft process.
Running Back
We’re in the middle
of a RB renaissance, but it’s a two-tiered renaissance. The first is an influx
of feature backs such as Gurley, Elliott, and the handful from 2017, who are
soon to be joined with Barkley in this draft. Then there’s the influx of backs
who are perfectly set up to be one half of a tandem or specialty backs. These
come in two types generally, the big backs who can catch and the speed backs
that can catch. I jest, but tandem backfields do seem to be shifting
prioritizing receiving ability for both, think New Orleans who found that perfect
mix with Ingram and Kamara last season. As for production, well RB is much
easier to rate by production than QB, you just need yards per rush, yards per
target, adjust those to value touchdowns and factor in work load, tinker and
you got a fair enough value for a running back. Note: if you want to get lost in a rabbit hole of nerdery click the
hyperlink for Adj. Yards/Rush and follow the rabbit hole on what the value of a
touchdown is.
(Player | Class |
School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Highest Producers
Rashaad Penny | Sr | San Diego State (MWC) | 5’ 11”, 224 lbs
308 Touches | 9.24
AY/Ru | 6.68 AY/Tar | 16.82
Ronald Jones II | Jr | USC (P12) | 6’ 0”, 200 lbs
275 Touches | 7.28
AY/Ru | 12.14 AY/Tar | 15.29
Squon Barkeley | Jr | Penn State (B1G) | 5’ 11”, 230 lbs
271 Touches | 7.38
AY/Ru | 9.84 AY/Tar | 14.24
Royce Freeman | Sr | Oregon (P12) | 6’ 0”, 238 lbs
258 Touches | 7.25
AY/Ru | 9.65 AY/Tar | 13.50
Kerryon Johnson | Jr | Auburn (SEC) | 6’ 0”, 212 lbs
309 Touches | 6.04
AY/Ru | 8.95 AY/Tar | 13.27
Dontrell Hilliard | Sr | Tulane (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 205 lbs
218 Touches | 6.25
AY/Ru | 15.36 AY/Tar | 13.05
Phillip Lindsay | Sr | Colorado (P12) | 5’ 8”, 190 lbs
326 Touches | 5.71
AY/Ru | 8.13 AY/Tar | 12.90
Ito Smith | Sr | Southern Miss (CUSA) | 5’ 9”, 201 lbs
288 Touches | 6.66
AY/Ru | 7.62 AY/Tar | 12.85
Terry Swanson | Sr | Toledo (MAC) | 5’ 10”, 205 lbs
263 Touches | 6.67
AY/Ru | 8.43 AY/Tar | 12.40
Dalyn Dawkins | Sr | Colorado State (MWC) | 5’ 9”, 185
252 Touches | 6.84
AY/Ru | 8.44 AY/Tar | 12.25
Unlike QBs the
running back production list correlates a lot better to what my final rankings
will look like. San Diego State has had a very nice run of RBs lately, with
Rashaad Penny being the latest and possible better suited player to the NFL
than his record setting predecessor. Ronald Jones II is a playmaker from USC
who put up competitive numbers on the ground, but thrashed the competition at
the top of the production list with a little over 12 yards per target. Third,
is the do everything back from Penn State, Saquon Barkley. I’m not sure he’s quite
to Elliott/Gurley level of prospect, but he’s a very good prospect with
multi-faceted talent. Oregon’s Royce Freeman is a relative unknown to most
casual fans but he’s a big bodied exciting back from Oregon. Kerryon Johnson
was great at times before succumbing to shoulder and rib injuries down the
stretch for Auburn. To skip a player for a moment, Phillip Lindsay has been a
consistent producer for Colorado through their up-tick and was a workhorse back
as a senior. Dontrell Hilliard is, in a statistical sense, the Aaron Jones of
this list. In so far, as he is a small school prospect that I don’t know much
about, but will definitely be an early study to round out my knowledge.
Hilliard’s status as 2018 Aaron Jones will be tested by the rest of the top 10
as Ito Smith, Terry Swanson, and Dalyn Dawkins all have statistical profile
that wholeheartedly require deeper research.
Names to Know
Akrum Wadley | Sr | Iowa (B1G) | 5’ 10”, 188 lbs
281 Touches | 5.13
AY/Ru | 11.11 AY/Tar | 12.11
Sony Michel | Sr | Georgia (SEC) | 5’ 11”, 215 lbs
165 Touches | 9.75
AY/Ru | 7.69 AY/Tar | 11.82
Derrius Guice | Jr | LSU (SEC) | 5’ 11” 218 lbs
255 Touches | 6.13
AY/Ru | 7.39 AY/Tar | 11.00
Nick Chubb | Sr | Georgia (SEC) | 5’ 10”, 225 lbs
227 Touches | 7.27
AY/Ru | 6.00 AY/Tar | 10.94
Larry Rose III | Sr | New Mexico State (SBC) | 5’ 11”, 195
lbs
242 Touches | 6.06
AY/Ru | 7.58 AY/Tar | 10.58
Justin Jackson | Sr | Northwestern (B1G) | 5’ 11”, 200 lbs
331 Touches | 5.27
AY/Ru | 4.68 AY/Tar | 10.58
Mark Walton | Jr | Miami (FL) (ACC) | 5’ 9”, 205 lbs
63 Touches | 8.63
AY/Ru | 8.27 AY/Tar | 6.81
Bo Scarbrough | Jr | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 2”, 235 lbs
141 Touches | 5.99
AY/Ru | 4.95 AY/Tar | 6.69
Kalen Ballage | Sr | Arizona State (P12) | 6’2”, 222 lbs
177 Touches | 4.96
AY/Ru | 2.84 AY/Tar | 5.93
Wadley will most likely
not be a day 1 or 2 pick, but he was productive at Iowa and a better athlete
than his college’s stigma may let on. Michel/Guice/Chubb are big SEC backs.
Michel is the twitchiest of the bunch, Chubb hasn’t fully regained form from a
knee injury two years ago, but looked better as the season went along, and
Guice has injury concerns but was Michel to Fournette’s Chubb when healthy at
LSU. That brings us to this year’s Matt Breida, or, the small school prospect I
love who faded a bit because of injury but is probably going to sneak into my
top 10-15. Justin Jackson is a solid if unspectacular workhorse out of
Northwestern, who is going to stick on a roster for a decade and never be the
bell cow, but always be your fans favorite running back. Mark Walton is going
to fly up this list as I watch tape and we get combine numbers. He’s the only back
to average over 8 yards per touch in this post. Bo Scarbrough is a bit of a
question mark to me. He has the recruiting pedigree and was productive at Alabama,
but when watching you always felt like he wasn’t processing the game correctly,
which left him unable to use all the physical tools he so clearly has. All you
need to know about Kalen Ballage is that he had a game last season (against Texas
Tech) in which he had 13 rushes, 137 yards, 7 TDs and 2 receptions, 48 yards,
and a receiving TD. If nothing else, it’s amazing footnote and was one of the
most insane performances I’ve ever personally watched.
There’s your RB
primer, and it’s not going to be as good as last year up top, but it’s another exceptionally
deep and talented class.
Wide Receiver
Receiver is kind of
the middle ground between RBs and QBs statistically. We have a good amount of information,
and we can use it to make pretty good assumptions, but there is a small gulf between
intuitive analysis and the numbers. That doesn’t mean that the number aren’t useful,
but I’ve yet to find the perfect balance between slanting to far towards high
target numbers and large adjusted yards per target scores. That said this is a
primer, and we’ll be able to sort out more with film and combine numbers.
(Player | Class |
School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Targets | Adj.
Yards/Target | Catch% |Production Rating)
Highest Producers
James Washington| Sr | Oklahoma State (BXII) | 5’ 11”, 210
lbs
117 Tar | 15.34
AY/Tar | 63.25% | 23.22
Anthony Miller | Sr | Memphis (AAC) | 5’ 11”, 190 lbs
148 Tar | 12.23 AY/Tar
| 64.86% | 21.79
Keke Coutee | Jr | Texas Tech (BXII) | 5’ 11”, 180 lbs
121 Tar | 13.40 AY/Tar
| 76.86% | 20.76
Tre’Quan Smith | Jr | UCF (AAC) | 6’ 2”, 202 lbs
86 Tar | 16.53 AY/Tar
| 68.60% | 20.59
Cedrick Wilson | Sr | Boise State (MWC) | 6’ 1”, 194 lbs
136 Tar | 12.25
AY/Tar | 61.03% | 20.56
Jordan Lasley | Jr | UCLA (P12) | 6’ 3”, 210 lbs
108 Tar | 13.31
AY/Tar | 63.89% | 19.11
Marcell Ateman | Sr | Oklahoma State (BXII) | 6’ 4”, 216 lbs
87 Tar | 15.06 AY/Tar
| 67.82% | 18.89
Michael Gallup | Sr | Colorado State (MWC) | 6’ 1”, 198 lbs
167 Tar | 9.27 AY/Tar
| 59.88% | 18.05
J’Mon Moore | Sr | Missouri (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 209 lbs
96 Tar | 13.28 AY/Tar
| 67.71% | 17.69
Trey Quinn | Jr | SMU (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 202 lbs
155 Tar | 9.59 AY/Tar
| 73.55% | 17.68
Korey Robertson | Jr | Southern Miss (CUSA) | 6’ 2”, 210 lbs
118 Tar | 11.45 AY/Tar
| 65.25% | 17.44
Steve Ishmael | Sr | Sryacuse (AAC) | 6’ 2”, 209 lbs
167 Tar | 8.87 AY/Tar
| 62.87% | 17.28
Ka’Raun Whtie | Sr | WVU (BXII) | 6’ 1”, 199 lbs
105 Tar | 11.84
AY/Tar | 59.05% | 16.70
Courtland Sutton | Jr | SMU (AAC) | 6’ 4”, 216 lbs
129 Tar | 10.21 AY/Tar
| 52.71% | 16.51
Jaleel Scott | Sr | New Mexico St. (SBC) | 6’ 5”, 216 lbs
117 Tar | 10.71
AY/Tar | 64.96% | 16.21
15 deep for our
statistical primer and it’s a nice mix of know/unknown. In the top 15 are the
Oklahoma State duo of James Washington and Marcel Ateman who’ll spark what I
suspect is a lot of debate over whom will be the better pro. Memphis standout
Anthony Miller is at the top with Washington, and gained a bunch of name recognition
in the UCLA game. Keke Coutee isn’t a name I knew, but a cursory look at some
highlights showed a player who was quick in space and legitimately fast. I look
forward to watching his tape. Jordan Lasley saw his opportunity to leave with
Rosen and not suffer the drop of from what will almost certainly be a top five
QB. The rest of the top 9 (because I read this wrong before writing and didn’t want
to re-do the whole paragraph) were Senior Bowl receivers. Smith balled out in
practice and the game, Wilson is a very productive deep threat from Boise
State, Michael Gallup was explosive, if a bit inconsistent, at Colorado State,
and J’Mon Moore was a big part of the explosion of offense at Missouri. Of the
rest of the fifteen, Ishmael and Sutton, are the only ones I’ve heard of, and both
will be fascinating studies. Ishmael was good in Dino Babers’ air raid at
Syracuse but wasn’t overly explosive. Sutton for his part was explosive, but he
disappeared at times after being, nearly, the consensus WR1 before the year
started. I don’t really have much knowledge when it comes to the other players
that round out the top 15; there’s, Trey Quinn aka the other SMU wideout, Kore
Robertson from Southern Miss, Kevin White’s brother Ka’Raun from WVU, and Senior
Bowler Jaleel Scott from New Mexico State. So there’s a number of unknown to
take a look at on film and watch out for athletic numbers.
Names To Know
Deontay Burnett | Jr | USC (P12) | 6’ 0”, 170 lbs
131 Tar | 9.83 AY/Tar
| 65.65% | 16.07
DaeSean Hamilton | SR | Penn State (B1G) | 6’ 1”, 202 lbs
82 Tar | 12.83 AY/Tar
| 64.63% | 15.53
Darren Carrington II | Sr | Utah (P12) | 6’ 3”, 205 lbs
101 Tar | 10.95
AY/Tar | 70.30% | 15.06
D.J. Chark | Sr | LSU (SEC) | 6’ 3”, 196 lbs
68 Tar | 13.70 AY/Tar
| 58.82% | 14.93
DJ Moore | Jr | Maryland (B1G) | 5’ 11”, 215 lbs
130 Tar | 9.13 AY/Tar
| 61.54% | 14.86
Steven Dunbar | Sr | Houston (AAC) | 6’ 3”, 202 lbs
112 Tar | 10.07 AY/Tar
| 67.86% | 14.81
Cam Phillips | Sr | Virginia Tech (ACC) | 6’ 0”, 202 lbs
107 Tar | 10.27
AY/Tar | 66.36% | 14.66
Calvin Ridley | Jr | Alabama (SEC) | 6’ 1”, 190 lbs
99 Tar | 10.74 AY/Tar
| 63.64% | 14.59
Christian Kirk | Jr | Texas A&M (SEC) | 5’ 11”, 200 lbs
113 Tar | 9.84 AY/Tar
| 62.83% | 14.56
Allen Lazard | Sr | Iowa State (BXII) | 6’ 4”, 227 lbs
130 Tar | 8.72 AY/Tar
| 54.62% | 14.19
Linell Bonner | Sr | Houston (AAC) | 6’ 0”, 200 lbs
101 Tar | 9.87 AY/Tar
| 79.21% | 13.57
Simmie Cobbs Jr | Jr | Indiana (B1G) | 6’ 4”, 220 lbs
123 Tar | 8.09 AY/Tar
| 58.54% | 12.67
Auden Tate | Jr | Florida State (ACC) | 6’ 5”, 225 lbs
63 Tar | 11.76 AY/Tar
| 63.49% | 12.30
Dante Pettis | Sr | Washington (P12) | 6’ 1”, 195 lbs
99 Tar | 8.91 AY/Tar
| 63.64% | 12.10
Antonio Callaway | Jr | Florida (SEC) | 5’ 10”, 193 lbs
85 Tar | 9.16 AY/Tar
| 63.53% | 11.33
Equanimeous St. Brown | Jr | Notre Dame (IND) | 6’ 5”, 203
lbs
74 Yar | 8.00 AY/Tar
| 44.59% | 9.13
Matt VandeBerg | Sr | Iowa (B1G) | 6’ 1”, 195 lbs
56 Tar | 7.55 AY/Tar
| 50.00% | 7.44
As for the names to
know, DaeSean Hamilton balled out at the Senior Bowl, and was explosive at Penn
State. Deontay Burnett is an undersized, but very productive USC product.
Carrington was excellent at Oregon but was dismissed after a DUI incident last
off-season. Chark was explosive in an LSU passing game that was lacking. DJ
Moore is a darling of the draft community from Maryland, and he was targeted often
(130 times), and is shifty in space. Simmie Cobbs Jr, shares Moore’s Big Ten
pedigree and absolutely balled out in tight spaces against Ohio State early in
the year. Dunbar was seriously good the last two seasons at Houston, Phillips probably
could’ve and should’ve come out last year with his QB but was still wonderful in
Fuente’s offense, and Lazard is a big, tall receiver who has been underutilized
by poor QB play at Iowa State. Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk are SEC
products from underwhelming passing games who will move up with film and
combine numbers. I don’t know much about Bonner, but those numbers are intriguing
from Houston if nothing else. Lastly, we have the quintet of P5 receivers (Tate,
Pettis, Callawy, St. Brown, and Vandeberg) that fall into the Michael Thomas (Ohio
State) territory of P5 receivers I like that have a relatively small number of
targets.
It’s a solid class up
top, there are some bright spots, but it’s looking like another class of solid
WR1s/very good WR2s.
Tight End
This is a position
that, much like running back, has two very different types of player prototypes.
That said, in the current game, blocking is of less value than a player who can
dynamically change a game catching passes. This is another pretty good class at
the top. It’s not as deep as last year’s top flight of players, but it would be
ridiculous to hold any class in recent years up to that one.
(Player | Class |
School (Conf) | Height, Weight
Targets | Adj.
Yards/Target | Catch% |Production Rating)
Highest Producers
Mark Andrews | Jr | Oklahoma (BXII) | 6’ 5”, 254 lbs
89 Tar | 12.68 AY/Tar
| 70.79% | 28.12
Dallas Goedert | Sr | South Dakota State (FCS) | 6’ 5”, 260
lbs
129 Tar | 9.66 AY/Tar
| 55.81% | 22.48
Deon Yelder | Sr | WKU (CUSA) | 6’ 3”, 251 lbs
69 Tar | 11.93 AY/Tar
| 75.36% | 21.18
Andy Brenneman | Sr | UMASS (IND) | 6’ 5”, 255 lbs
92 Tar | 9.14 AY/Tar
| 69.57% | 20.89
Blake Mack | Sr | Arkansas State (SBC) | 6’ 3”, 229 lbs
65 Tar | 11.59 AY/Tar
| 73.85% | 19.55
Andrews and Goedert
are legitimately good prospects and both are big/able to block. Yelder/Brenneman/Mack
are small school FBS prospects that I don’t know much about because they play tight
end and I don’t usually pay attention that closely to TEs when watching G5
games.
Names to Know
Mike Gesicki | Sr | Penn State (B1G) | 6’ 5”, 242 lbs
76 Tar | 9.69 AY/Tar
| 75.00% | 18.71
Jaylen Samuels | Sr | NC State (ACC) | 6’ 0”, 223 lbs
98 Tar | 6.88 AY/Tar
| 77.55% | 16.63
Jordan Akins | Sr | UCF (AAC) | 6’ 3”, 246 lbs
47 Tar | 12.60 AY/Tar
| 68.09% | 16.24
Troy Fumagalli | Sr | Wisconsin (B1G) | 6’ 5”, 247 lbs
73 Tar | 8.55 AY/Tar
| 63.01% | 15.94
Gesicki and Fumagalli
are Big Ten prospects that were productive through the air and inline, much
like Andrews. Samuels is an interesting study, and a player who legitimately
played three roles in the NC State offense. He’s as close to a pure H-Back
prospect as we’ve had and that relative lack of position is fascinating. Akins
was explosive for a very good UCF offense and, although I’ve heard of him, I
don’t know much about him, but those numbers were too intriguing to ignore.
We’ll talk more about
TEs in a much more solid tone going forward, but there is some intrigue here,
and for draft purposes that’s a good thing.
So there we go, we’ve
gotten through production and players to watch for each of the position groups
that have actionable production numbers. Obviously, the offensive line will
have to wait for film and combine/pro day numbers. The QBs are argument worthy,
the RBs are deep once again, the WRs are a solid group and the TEs are interesting.
So not a bad year all around on the offensive side of the ball.
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