Second year of putting out the R.O.O.C. ranks. There are five components I put into my ranks: 1) My numerical player grade from my draft work which runs on a scale from 2-8. 2) My grade of the pick during the draft combined with combined with the average approximate value of the draft pick. So, a letter grade is turned into its % equivalent and then multiplied by football perspectives AV values for each pick. For instance, Barkley was picked second (30.2 AV), and I had a B- (81%) grade on the pick so his projected AV is 24.46. The last three components are all related to a players depth chart positioning. They are current depth chart position (Now), where I think the player will be at the end of the year (EOS), and where I think that player will be in Year 3 (Y3). For depth chart positions a 1st team grade is a 10, 2nd a 9, 3rd an 8 and so on to 1 for 10th and below, with players, especially wide receivers, who seem to fall somewhere between starter and 2nd teamer getting half points. I also weight those three 20% Now, 30% EOS, and 50% Y3. That’s my set up and this year I don't think the rankings work out as well as last season for pure fantasy football purposes, but for now if nothing else it’s a good place to start on the rookies. As for the final column, it’s all of the components totaled up into one score, R.O.O.C (Rookie Overall Opportunity Composite).
Note: This year I'm going to put my adjusted version below these rankings. With QBs being taken at the top of the draft they skew too high and I have yet to find a work around that makes this better for fantasy purposes.
Player
|
Pos
|
Tm
|
PlGr
|
Gr
|
Pick
|
Now
|
EOS
|
Y3
|
R.O.O.C.
|
Baker
Mayfield
|
QB
|
CLE
|
6.6
|
B+
|
1
|
2nd
|
1st
|
1st
|
47.19
|
Saquon
Barkley
|
RB
|
24.46
|
7.5
|
B-
|
2
|
1st
|
1st
|
1st
|
41.96
|
Sam
Darnold
|
QB
|
NYJ
|
6.6
|
B+
|
3
|
2nd
|
1st
|
1st
|
40.96
|
Josh
Rosen
|
QB
|
ARI
|
7.1
|
A
|
10
|
2nd
|
1st
|
1st
|
36.20
|
Josh
Allen
|
QB
|
BUF
|
5.8
|
D+
|
7
|
2nd
|
2nd
|
1st
|
29.73
|
Calvin
Ridley
|
WR
|
ATL
|
7.1
|
B+
|
26
|
3rd
|
2nd/3rd
|
1st
|
28.62
|
DJ
Moore
|
WR
|
CAR
|
6.9
|
B
|
24
|
3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
28.59
|
Lamar
Jackson
|
QB
|
BAL
|
6.6
|
A
|
32
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
1st
|
28.03
|
Nick
Chubb
|
RB
|
CLE
|
7.1
|
B
|
35
|
2nd
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
26.95
|
Mike
Gesicki
|
TE
|
MIA
|
7.0
|
B+
|
42
|
1st
|
1st
|
1st
|
26.61
|
Sony
Michel
|
RB
|
NE
|
7.1
|
B
|
31
|
6th
|
3rd
|
1st
|
26.30
|
Kerryon
Johnson
|
RB
|
DET
|
7.0
|
B
|
43
|
1st
|
1st
|
1st
|
26.01
|
Rashaad
Penny
|
RB
|
SEA
|
6.8
|
D+
|
27
|
1st
|
1st
|
1st
|
25.64
|
Courtland
Sutton
|
WR
|
DEN
|
7.0
|
B+
|
40
|
3rd
|
3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
25.63
|
Dante
Pettis
|
WR
|
SF
|
7.1
|
A
|
44
|
7th
|
3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
25.24
|
Derrius
Guice
|
RB
|
WAS
|
7.2
|
A-
|
59
|
2nd
|
1st
|
1st
|
25.00
|
Ronald
Jones II
|
RB
|
TB
|
6.8
|
C
|
38
|
2nd
|
1st
|
1st
|
24.92
|
Dallas
Goedert
|
TE
|
PHI
|
7.0
|
B+
|
49
|
3rd
|
3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
24.47
|
Hayden
Hurst
|
TE
|
BAL
|
6.2
|
D+
|
25
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
1st/2nd
|
24.42
|
Anthony
Miller
|
WR
|
CHI
|
6.9
|
A
|
51
|
4th/5th
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
24.41
|
James
Washington
|
WR
|
PIT
|
7.0
|
A+
|
60
|
3rd/4th
|
3rd
|
1st
|
24.40
|
As I put in the note above, QBs slotted high on the list and there wasn't an obvious fix to that issue. All things considered the QBs separate out at the top and then there is a gigantic tier after in which there isn't much of natural tier break. Tier 1 is Mayfield, who sits well above the rest in the R.O.O.C. rankings, and it makes sense given the criteria. I gave the pick a B+ grade, the first pick is worth more than any other, and a first round QB is usually no worse than 3rd on the depth chart and is presumed to be the starter within a few years. Tier 2 is Darnold and Barkley. Everything said about Mayfield applies to Darnold specifically pick grade and player grade. Barkley on the other hand is the presumed starter at running back for the Giants and the most talented back on his team. He's my #1 rookie pick, but we'll get to that later. The third tier is where my QB1 sits, and to be honest the only real difference for Rosen is that he was drafted at 10 instead of top 3. Alright, into the abyss of the mega-tier (which I cut off at the players 1 standard deviation above average).
The abyss is topped by Josh Allen (see: what I've written about the three preceding QBs). I'm gonna split up the clumps in the tier which means our first trio is Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, and Lamar Jackson. Ridley and More were the two highest drafted WRs and both went late in the 1st. This investment by the teams and their overall positive grade makes props them up.
The next clump involves four first RBs and TE. Gesicki is the outlier here as the one TE in the clump and he's insanely physically talented and is already the most talented TE on the roster. Chubb makes a jump over Michel for two reasons: 1) Michel goes to NE where they scatter the carries pretty readily, 2) If Chubb makes a good first impression the Browns can get out of the Hyde contract pretty cheaply. Last in this group is Johnson who only has to jump Ameer Abdullah who's on, what should be, his last chance with the Lions.
Clump three of the abyss is the final Clump. We'll start with what will be one of the more hotly contested players in dynasty, and probably redraft, this year. Rashaad Penny is a good player, a fine player, but he was picked over better players which earned him a lower grade. That said there's a clear path to playing time in Seattle's backfield with just Chris Carson coming off injury in the way. Sutton is tall and has freakishly quick feet for a man his size and although I think he can make an impact year 1 but rumors and logic suggest that they drafted a year out for Thomas' replacement. Pettis, along with Ridley & Gallup was tied for my WR1, and with San Fran spending a mid-second on Pettis, combined with a Shannahan offense, and his route running I could make a case for him being a factor for the 49ers by the end of the year. Next up is Guice slipped to pick 59 for a myriad of reasons that range from plausible to stupid. Guice landed in Washington in a spot where he only needs to beat out Perine and Kelley. The good news with Guice is that he's starting to soothe work ethic fears already in camp. Jones II got drafted by TB but I have my reservations based on prior injury history. My biggest worry is the one I had on draft day, is he just a slightly different version of Martin (inconsistent but talented). Now a pair of TEs with very different issues. Goedert went much closer to where I would have picked him but he currently sits 3rd on the Eagles depth chart and even if he gets past Rodgers he's still stuck behind Ertz for the foreseeable future. I've been pretty harsh on the Ravens picking Hurst late in the second but the draft capital spent means that they almost certainly have an idea of how they want to use him. Last are a pair of undersized receivers, Miller & Washington, who are good enough to see the field as rookies, were second round picks, and have skill sets that fit well for the teams/schemes they're assimilating into.
My ranks are bit stratified now that I look at them after a bit of time. Although, at the top, it just kind of works out like that. Generally, these ranks follow my player grades but I tried to adjust for positional value to tap down the influx of QBs at the top of the rankings.
My.Rk
|
Player
|
Pos
|
Tm
|
PlGr
|
Gr
|
Gr%
|
Pick
|
PkAV
|
1
|
Saquon Barkley
|
RB
|
NYG
|
7.5
|
B-
|
81%
|
2
|
30.2
|
2
|
Derrius Guice
|
RB
|
WAS
|
7.2
|
A-
|
93%
|
59
|
8.6
|
3
|
Nick Chubb
|
RB
|
CLE
|
7.1
|
B
|
85%
|
35
|
12.0
|
4
|
Sony Michel
|
RB
|
NE
|
7.1
|
B
|
85%
|
31
|
12.7
|
5
|
DJ Moore
|
WR
|
CAR
|
6.9
|
B
|
85%
|
24
|
14.4
|
6
|
Calvin Ridley
|
WR
|
ATL
|
7.1
|
B+
|
89%
|
26
|
13.9
|
7
|
Dante Pettis
|
WR
|
SF
|
7.1
|
A
|
97%
|
44
|
10.5
|
8
|
Courtland Sutton
|
WR
|
DEN
|
7.0
|
B+
|
89%
|
40
|
11.1
|
9
|
Josh Rosen
|
QB
|
ARI
|
7.1
|
A
|
97%
|
10
|
19.9
|
10
|
Baker Mayfield
|
QB
|
CLE
|
6.6
|
B+
|
89%
|
1
|
34.6
|
11
|
Sam Darnold
|
QB
|
NYJ
|
6.6
|
B+
|
89%
|
3
|
27.6
|
12
|
Lamar Jackson
|
QB
|
BAL
|
6.6
|
A
|
97%
|
32
|
12.5
|
13
|
Kerryon Johnson
|
RB
|
DET
|
7.0
|
B
|
85%
|
43
|
10.6
|
14
|
Rashaad Penny
|
RB
|
SEA
|
6.8
|
D+
|
65%
|
27
|
13.6
|
15
|
Ronald Jones II
|
RB
|
TB
|
6.8
|
C
|
73%
|
38
|
11.4
|
16
|
James Washington
|
WR
|
PIT
|
7.0
|
A+
|
100%
|
60
|
8.5
|
17
|
Anthony Miller
|
WR
|
CHI
|
6.9
|
A
|
97%
|
51
|
9.6
|
18
|
Michael Gallup
|
WR
|
DAL
|
7.1
|
A+
|
100%
|
81
|
6.6
|
19
|
Mike Gesicki
|
TE
|
MIA
|
7.0
|
B+
|
89%
|
42
|
10.8
|
20
|
Royce Freeman
|
RB
|
DEN
|
7.0
|
B+
|
89%
|
71
|
7.5
|
21
|
Mason Rudolph
|
QB
|
PIT
|
6.1
|
A-
|
93%
|
76
|
7.0
|
22
|
Christian Kirk
|
WR
|
ARI
|
6.6
|
B-
|
81%
|
47
|
10.1
|
23
|
Keke Coutee
|
WR
|
HOU
|
6.8
|
A+
|
100%
|
103
|
5.1
|
24
|
Dallas Goedert
|
TE
|
PHI
|
7.0
|
B+
|
89%
|
49
|
9.8
|
25
|
Josh Allen
|
QB
|
BUF
|
5.8
|
D+
|
65%
|
7
|
22.2
|
26
|
Hayden Hurst
|
TE
|
BAL
|
6.2
|
D+
|
65%
|
25
|
14.1
|
27
|
Ian Thomas
|
TE
|
CAR
|
6.8
|
A+
|
100%
|
101
|
5.2
|
28
|
DJ Chark
|
WR
|
JAC
|
6.1
|
C
|
73%
|
61
|
8.4
|
29
|
Tre'Quan Smith
|
WR
|
NO
|
6.1
|
B+
|
89%
|
91
|
5.9
|
30
|
Mark Andrews
|
TE
|
BAL
|
6.1
|
D
|
61%
|
86
|
6.2
|
31
|
Nyheim Hines
|
RB
|
IND
|
5.6
|
C+
|
77%
|
104
|
5.0
|
32
|
Antonio Callaway
|
WR
|
CLE
|
6.5
|
B
|
85%
|
105
|
5.0
|
33
|
Kyle Lauletta
|
QB
|
NYG
|
5.2
|
C+
|
77%
|
108
|
4.8
|
34
|
Mark Walton
|
RB
|
CIN
|
5.8
|
B-
|
81%
|
112
|
4.6
|
35
|
Ito Smith
|
RB
|
ATL
|
6.1
|
B+
|
89%
|
126
|
3.8
|
36
|
Jordan Wilkins
|
RB
|
IND
|
6.3
|
A
|
97%
|
169
|
1.9
|
