It’s
that time… DRAFT GRADES!!! The thing we all love to do for fun that will almost
assuredly be wrong in three years if not earlier. Before we get to the actual
grades let’s talk about the grade range and the process to get to them. I used
6 ingredients to get to my draft grade: # of picks, the average grade that I
gave each player, the average of the adjusted grades that were on my big board,
Adjusted AV (expected AV of pick x %grade of the pick), Average Weighted Grade
% (adjusted for historical AV of each round), and the surplus AV gain/loss from
Trades. To get an Idea of how I combine those I used Z-scores (standard
deviations from average) for each criterion and then weighted each piece of information.
The order of importance goes Sum of Adjusted AV, Average Weighted Gr%, Average Grade
(Talent), Trade Av Surplus, and Average Adjusted Grade. I think this gets to
the heart of the problem we’re trying to solve, i.e. what makes a good draft?
It’s the perfect balance of quantity and quality, of making the right pick at
the right time, making the most of the high upside opportunities, cultivating future
opportunities by trading back, and understanding positional values. To recap,
this is an inexact science with multiple variables and 19-25-year-old men who
haven’t fully developed yet. Now, on to what will be the most accurate draft
grades ever recorded.
Team
| Overall Grade | # of Picks | Average Grade | Averaged Adjusted Grade | Sum of
Adjusted AV | Average Weighted Grade% | Trade AV Surplus
Player
(Round.Overall Pick)
Cleveland Browns | A+ | 6.44 | 9 | 5.78
| 95.58 | 62.55% | -3.6 AV
Best
Pick: Denzel Ward (1.4)
I
thought about making this Avery who I had as a top 25 prospect they got with
the 150th pick. He reportedly fell because of a knee injury that
came up late in the process. Ward on the other hand was a pretty inspired pick.
Where everyone thought they were going to take Chubb they fortified a weakness
on their roster with a player who was the best at a shallow position.
Least
Favorite Pick: Chad Thomas (3.67)
Thomas
isn’t a bad player, but he wasn’t the best available at his position nor a
great overall value when he was drafted.
New York Giants | A- | 6.72 | 6 | 6.01
| 57.77 | 63.89% | +2.3 AV
Best
Pick: Lorenzo Carter (3.66)
I
didn’t think Carter was an edge player, but he was still almost assuredly a top
50 player in this year’s draft. The Giants get what they haven’t had in a while,
an athletic off ball linebacker.
Least
Favorite Pick: Kyle Lauletta (4.108)
Thank
god for Kyle Lauletta otherwise this would have been Barkley and that would
have gone over poorly. The problem with the Lauletta pick is it was made to
appease people who want them to prepare for the future but it just leaves them
with two poor options to succeed Manning when it’s time to move on.
Indianapolis Colts | A- | 6.23 | 11 |
5.53 | 67.12 | 59.12% | +18.8 AV
Best
Pick: Quenton Nelson (1.6)
Oh I
absolutely wanted to put the Turay pick here but they get the best player in
the draft at 6 and shored up the line to keep Luck healthy when he gets back.
No need to overthink this.
Least
Favorite Pick: Nyheim Hines (4.104)
I
was never the biggest Hines fan to begin with and I think they got a better
running back 65 picks later.
Chicago Bears | B | 6.34 | 7 | 5.67 |
49.51 | 63.05% | -5.3 AV
Best
Pick: Roquan Smith (1.8)
Just
like Indy there’s no need to overthink the best pick. Smith has sideline to
sideline athleticism and great instincts.
Least
Favorite Pick: N/a (N/a)
I
could go in on the C+ I gave them in the 7th round but that’s not
worthwhile and Iyiegbuniwe is a perfectly acceptable 4th round pick.
Tennessee Titans | B- | 6.85 | 4 | 6.17
| 27.70 | 67.59% | -5.3 AV
Best
Pick: Harold Landry (1.41)
Obviously
there were health concerns that weren’t known before the draft but they got a
top 10 talent with the 9th pick in the second round.
Least
Favorite Pick: N/a (N/a)
None
of their four picks was below a B+.
Los Angeles Chargers | B- | 6.59 | 7 |
5.83 | 38.06 | 62.02% | 0 AV
Best
Pick: Derwin James (1.17)
James
slipped not just out of the top 10 but the top 15 and that’s crazy. Unless we
find out he hadn’t healed as well as we assumed this is baffling and a great
pick for the Chargers.
Least
Favorite Pick: Justin Jones (3.84)
There
were a handful of interior linemen I liked better than Jones at this pick. He
isn’t a bad player this least favorite is more about value at that point in the
draft than anything else.
Arizona Cardinals | B- | 6.60 | 6 |
5.91 | 36.73 | 61.88% | -5.4 AV
Best
Pick: Korey Cunningham (7.254)
I
had Cunningham just below Starter level on my board. He was injured during the
draft process but I think they got a heck of a player with the third to last
pick of the draft.
Least
Favorite Pick: N/a (N/a)
Again,
there’s just not much to have a problem with as I had every pick at B- or
above.
Atlanta Falcons | C+ | 6.40 | 6 | 5.70
| 31.69 | 62.60% | +.9 AV
Best
Pick: Isaiah Oliver (2.58)
Oliver
is the best technician of the corners in the draft. Oliver slipped and helps
bolster a strength for the Falcons defense late in the second round.
Least
Favorite Pick: Russell Gate (6.194)
This
is a bit of a reach too, being that Gage was a sixth round pick. That said,
Gage is a alright player but there were still significantly better players with
similar skill sets left on the board.
Denver Broncos | C+ | 5.90 | 10 | 5.22
| 56.02 | 54.44% | +1.1 AV
Best
Pick: Bradley Chubb (1.4)
Yes,
the pick only got an A from me because it was par-value but Chubb now bookends
with Von Miller in the nightmare a mile up for OCs.
Least
Favorite Pick: Isaac Yiadom (3.99)
Yiadom
might not of have been the best corner on BC and certainly wasn’t the best
corner at the time of this pick.
Dallas Cowboys | C+ | 6.25 | 9 | 5.58 |
40.21 | 58.75% | -1.8 AV
Best
Pick: Michael Gallup (3.81)
Gallup
was T-1 for me at WR and brings the physical presence that the offense lost
with the regression and departure of Dez. Gallup should be a safety blanket for
Dak and could be the best WR on the team by year two if not this year.
Least
Favorite Pick: Dalton Schultz (4.137)
Schultz
isn’t bad, he’s got underrated ball skills (see: Waldman’s thoughts). That
said, they did get a surprise from Jason Witten the morning of day three that
he was retiring.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | C+ | 5.96 | 8 |
5.28 | 40.21 | 58.75% | -1.8 AV
Best
Pick: Jack Cichy (6.202)
I
love the value Cichy brings in the sixth. Cichy was a difference maker for
Wisconsin in the middle of the field. If Cichy is healthy he’s a starter level
player in the NFL. That’s worth betting on in the sixth.
Least
Favorite Pick: Ronald Jones II (2.38)
Jones’
base level talent is as good as all non-Barkley backs in the draft, but the
known injury history contains numerous soft tissue injuries and it popped up
again during the combine and in the off-season workouts. Tampa just got rid of
a back with injury problems and some vision issues.
Buffalo Bills | C | 6.01 | 8 | 5.37 |
45.29 | 58.27% | -7.9 AV
Best
Pick: Tremaine Edmunds (1.16)
Least
Favorite Pick: Josh Allen (1.7)
Much
like Tennessee the Bills have shown a propensity to move up for players they
like and nothing highlights the dichotomy of results quite like the Bills first
round. You can move up to get a player who fell too far or move up and get a
player that isn’t as good as you think he is or can be. I’ve said enough about
Allen, but Edmunds turns 20 on May 2nd , flows to the ball well, and
is extremely athletic. I think they knocked it out of the park with Edmunds.
Pittsburgh Steelers | C | 6.14 | 7 |
5.46 | 33.92 | 58.69% | +6.7 AV
Best
Pick: James Washington (2.60)
Washington
was a deep play specialist at Oklahoma State who consistently creates
separation deep. He won’t need to start right away, per se, but he’ll be a nice
compliment to Brown & Smith-Schuster.
Least
Favorite Pick: Terrell Edmunds (1.28)
Edmunds
is another reach at DB for a team that has reached at DB quite often recently
and has a poor track record at developing those upside picks.
Detroit Lions | C | 5.97 | 6 | 5.21 |
36.12 | 61.77% | -5.6 AV
Best
Pick: Frank Ragnow (1.20)
I
thought about making this Crosby, but I think Ragnow was in a tier with Nelson,
Chubb, Ward at the top of the class. Ragnow can play multiple stops along the
line and makes the Lions offensive line significantly better.
Least
Favorite Pick: Tracy Walker (3.82)
Walker
was taken with players like Apke, Moore, Harrison, Watts, and Jamerson left on
the board at safety.
Washington Redskins | C | 5.87 | 9 |
5.16 | 38.35 | 53.84% | +11.3 AV
Best
Pick: Troy Apke (4.109)
Apke
has flaws in his game but it’s difficult to get someone with his athletic
profile in the fourth round.
Least
Favorite Pick: Da’Ron Payne (1.13)
I
like Payne’s upside, but unless Washington is switching defenses and using him
as a penetrator I don’t get this pick. I hope it goes well because I don’t want
the National Championship game to be the last time we see the Da’Ron Payne that
can absolutely wreck an offensive game plan.
San Francisco 49ers | C | 5.48 | 9 |
4.84 | 47.11 | 55.69% | +.4 AV
Best
Pick: Tarvarius Moore (3.95)
More
much Apke is a very good athlete who shows up with splash plays everywhere on tape.
Least
Favorite Pick: Marcell Harris (6.184)
I
make this my least favorite cautiously. Harris was injured in 2017 and I’m
hesitant to even appear to be rooting against a full recovery.
Cincinnati Bengals | C | 5.83 | 12 |
5.17 | 46.01 | 52.54% | -1.9 AV
Best
Pick: Andrew Brown (5.158)
Andrew
Brown has the talent to go two rounds before this. Brown is an interior
disruptor who created havoc consistently in the ACC.
Least
Favorite Pick: Dorian O’Daniel (3.100)
O’Daniel
was on a series of dominant Clemson defenses and behind a number of fearsome
defensive lines. He’s not a bad player just not the impact player they could
have gotten in the third round.
Baltimore Ravens | C | 5.58 | 12 | 4.94
| 43.71 | 53.00% | +4.3 AV
Best
Pick: Lamar Jackson (1.32)
Flacco
hasn’t progressed or even regained the form that led them to the Super Bowl.
Jackson has a skill set that is perfectly suited to today’s NFL. He’s an
electric athlete and by using pick 32 they get the team option for a fifth
season on his rookie wage scale.
Least
Favorite Pick: Hayden Hurst (1.25)
My
issues with Hurst were talked about in full during the draft and when you add
in the Mark Andrews pick doubling down on less than ideal TE prospects seems
like a waste of assets.
Miami Dolphins | C | 5.61 | 8 | 4.89 |
40.27 | 54.49% | -1.4 AV
Best
Pick: Minkah Fitzpatrick (1.11)
Poling
was my first thought because a highly productive player at LB in the 7th
is just plain good value. That said Fitzpatrick was a top 10 player taken at 11
who immediately makes a bad secondary better.
Least
Favorite Pick: Durham Smythe (4.123)
I
never got the Smythe hype and believe he’s got a chance to be a productive
player in this league, but he just wasn’t worth a useful asset in my opinion.
New England Patriots | C- | 5.50 | 9 |
4.85 | 35.94 | 53.79% | +10.9 AV
Best
Pick: Braxton Berrios (6.210)
Berrios
is the living embodiment of a cliché draft pick. Berrios is quick, surehanded,
and a good route runner and white which makes the Pats pick of him just
wonderful. Berrios is also a talented slot receiver and those always tend to be
undervalued.
Least
Favorite Pick: Duke Dawson (2.56)
A
fine corner and a potentially very good player Dawson went about a round early
and although I trust the Pats to do the right thing with him, it’s still a
round and a half too early for him to go.
Oakland Raiders | C- | 5.51 | 9 | 4.87
| 40.17 | 52.83% | +3.5 AV
Best
Pick: Maurice Hurst (5.140)
All
medical issues aside (not trivializing his affliction) Hurst was my #2 interior
player and #1 on most boards on #DraftTwitter. If he plays, the combo with Mack
on the outside will create a lot of problems for o-lines, QBs, and OCs.
Least
Favorite Pick: Arden Key (3.87)
Key
has a laundry list of issues both on and off the field and the third round
seems far too early to take a chance like this.
New York Jets | C- | 5.82 | 6 | 5.19 |
37.52 | 53.60% | -17.3 AV
Best
Pick: Sam Darnold (1.3)
I
wasn’t in love with any pick they had but Darnold was the most solid and has
the most upside. If Darnold can be the franchise QB that most think he is then
this is a slam dunk.
Least
Favorite Pick: Tre Herndon (4.107)
Herndon
was taken before Maddox and Nick Nelson and isn’t on the same level as either
of those two as well as a handful of others.
Green Bay Packers | C- | 5.07 | 11 |
4.47 | 38.53 | 52.75% | +14.3 AV
Best
Pick: Josh Jackson (2.45)
This
came down to Burks or Jackson and Jackson plays the more valuable position.
Jackson is athletic enough and has elite ball skills to boot.
Least
Favorite Pick: Cole Madison (5.138)
Madison
doesn’t fit the mold of past linemen base line testing numbers the Packers
normally use for late round linemen.
New Orleans Saints | D+ | 5.99 | 7 |
5.28 | 27.70 | 54.66% | -15.5 AV
Best
Pick: Natrell Jamerson (5.164)
Jamerson
is an athletic and safety who plays downhill.
Least
Favorite Pick: Rick Leonard (4.129)
Leonard
is an average offensive line talent and athlete. That doesn’t make him bad, but
it does make him a reach in the fourth round.
Minnesota Vikings | D+ | 5.54 | 8 |
4.89 | 27.57 | 54.84% | +.2 AV
Best
Pick: Mike Hughes (1.30)
I
had a starter grade on Hughes and given his positional value he has the best
chance to make an impact early and often for the Vikings.
Least
Favorite Pick: Daniel Carlson (5.167)
Carlson
is a very good kicker, but I don’t really believe in using draft capital on
specialists.
Carolina Panthers | D+ | 5.50 | 8 |
4.86 | 33.21 | 51.44% | +1.4 AV
Best
Pick: Ian Thomas (4.101)
In
Thomas, Carolina got their successor to Greg Olsen. He’s athletic and can move
in space.
Least
Favorite Pick: Rashaan Gaulden (3.85)
He’s
a sloppy technician and an average athlete and that’s a dangerous combination
while moving to the next level.
Houston Texans | D+ | 5.88 | 8 | 5.21 |
23.46 | 50.67% | 0 AV
Best
Pick: Justin Reid (3.68)
The
Texans got a first round talent at the start of the 3rd round.
Least
Favorite Pick: Martinas Rankin (3.80)
Rankin
had a weakness as a left tackle for inside moves and didn’t always do well in
space. I hope the transition inside works out, but I have questions about his
ability to play with power in small spaces.
Los Angeles Rams | F+ | 6.02 | 11 |
5.33 | 22.55 | 50.27% | -15.9 AV
Best
Pick: Joseph Noteboom (3.89)
Noteboom
was a tackle I really got to like during the process. He hits the athleticism benchmarks
and held his own well in the passing game.
Least
Favorite Pick: N/a (N/a)
There
wasn’t a bad pick for the Rams but they get knocked because of the value of
their picks overall and the draft capital given up. Note: I haven’t figured out
a good way to account for players traded for draft picks.
Philadelphia Eagles | F+ | 5.52 | 5 |
4.87 | 16.83 | 53.01% | +3.3 AV
Best
Pick: Josh Sweat (4.130)
Sweat
is a great athlete on the edge and a steal if he can healthy in the NFL.
Least
Favorite Pick: Matt Pryor (6.206)
An
average athlete he’ll have to improve his feet to stick on the roster.
Seattle Seahawks | F | 5.23 | 8 | 4.57
| 24.70 | 48.10% | +6.9 AV
Best
Pick: Shaquem Griffin (5.141)
Griffin
is a great athlete, a well above average football player, and the best story in
the draft.
Least
Favorite Pick: Rashaad Penny (1.27)
Even
without the positional value argument Penny was a reach here for the Seahawks
with multiple other power runners still on the board.
Kansas City Chiefs | F | 5.40 | 5 |
4.75 | 17.76 | 48.08% | +3.3 AV
Best
Pick: Armani Watts (4.124)
By
far Kansas City’s best pick, Watts was a multi-year starter and impact player
at Texas A&M. He’s not a crazy athlete but makes up for it with instincts
and awareness.
Least
Favorite Pick: Derrick Nnadi (3.75)
Nnadi
is too tall to be a nose tackle and a sub-par athlete which doesn’t bode well
for his ability to fit in in an NFL that requires disruption in the interior.
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