2021 Fantasy Football - 1st PPR Ranks - Running Backs

 It’s amazing to me the cycles we see positionally in fantasy football and nowhere are the swings in depth more volatile than RB. A handful of years ago the depth at anything resembling a bell cow was abysmal and we were discussing whether value would ever return to more than a couple high end backs with workhorse roles. Now we’re looking at 12 -18 players who should have those types of roles and enough touches in the backfield to see another half dozen who have substantial roles as change of pace/receiving backs. With the NFL offensive explosion we’re seeing unprecedented depth at QB and WR as well with only TE lagging behind. That’s all to point out however that we’re at a tipping point with RB, there are a number of promising youngsters but outside of a couple we haven’t yet seen the production to put them in a certain place in dynasty going forward as the latest golden classes move towards there 27/28/29 year old seasons. So, while we have a boom let’s enjoy it because there is a chance that we’re headed towards a running back shortage after seeing amazing heights.

 

Tier 1 – The One With All the McCaffrey
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
RB1	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	1	1	0

 

This tier has the player with the most upside and opportunity in fantasy football. He was injured last season. That doesn’t matter all that much in my eyes.

 

Tier 2 – The Elites
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
RB2	Alvin Kamara	NO	3	3	-1
RB3	Dalvin Cook	MIN	2	2	1
RB4	Saquon Barkley	NYG	5	5	-1
RB5	Jonathan Taylor	IND	7	6	-1
RB6	Derrick Henry	TEN	4	4	2
RB7	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	8	7	0

 

Still no major surprises here.

 

Tier 3 – The Really Good
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
RB8	Aaron Jones	GB	10	8	0
RB9	Nick Chubb	CLE	12	9	0
RB10	Josh Jacobs	LVR	35	19	-9
RB11	Antonio Gibson	WAS	25	14	-3
RB12	Joe Mixon	CIN	17	12	0
RB13	Austin Ekeler	LAC	14	10	3
RB14	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	29	16	-2
RB15	Cam Akers	LAR	15	11	4
RB16	D'Andre Swift	DET	22	13	3
RB17	Najee Harris	PIT	28	15	2

 

This is where RB gets interesting my RB10 and 11 are guys I’m gonna end up higher on than consensus almost assuredly. Jacobs has been a top 12 RB each year he’s been in the league. He’s efficient, used more in the passing game than I think most assume, and a bell cow. I hope the hate continues, at least for the benefit of my fantasy teams. I’m not uber high on Gibson right now compared to ADP but I’m slowly learning through best ball drafts that I’m really happy to get him where he’s going and probably wouldn’t hate drafting him higher which means getting towards a half tier higher than ADP into that RB8 range. The rest is relatively stock with me being slightly lower on Ekeler, Akers, Swift, and Harris; Slightly higher on CEH.

 

Tier 4 – Solid Starters (And Elite Pass Catchers)
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
RB18	Miles Sanders	PHI	34	18	0
RB19	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	31	17	2
RB20	Myles Gaskin	MIA	55	23	-3
RB21	Chris Carson	SEA	38	21	0
RB22	Chase Edmonds	ARI	64	25	-3
RB23	Kareem Hunt	CLE	53	22	1
RB24	David Montgomery	CHI	37	20	4
RB25	Tarik Cohen	CHI	142	48	-23
RB26	Mike Davis	ATL	65	26	0

 

Still not much different in this tier but I think it talks to the current depth at the position that guys with Dobbins upside, and the floor of Carson/Gaskin/Montgomery/Davis are fringe RB 2s. The big difference here is Tarik Cohen who tore his ACL in week 3 last season. He’s projected to be ready for training camp but that’s no guarantee he’ll be back and in form for the season. Right now, I’m making that assumption but for the less risk averse I’m a lunatic and my fall position around RB40 is probably far too optimistic.

 

Tier 5 – Low End Starters, High End Backups
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
RB27	Raheem Mostert	SF	77	30	-3
RB28	David Johnson	HOU	79	31	-3
RB29	James Robinson	JAX	68	27	2
RB30	Melvin Gordon	DEN	72	28	2
RB31	Ronald Jones II	TB	92	34	-3
RB32	Nyheim Hines	IND	118	42	-10
RB33	James White	NE	155	52	-19
RB34	Devin Singletary	BUF	115	41	-7
RB35	Zack Moss	BUF	107	39	-4
RB36	Travis Etienne	JAX	61	24	12
RB37	Damien Harris	NE	95	35	2
RB38	Gus Edwards	BAL	133	46	-8
RB39	Leonard Fournette	TB	76	29	10
RB40	Darrell Henderson	LAR	144	49	-9
RB41	Tony Pollard	DAL	127	44	-3
RB42	Trey Sermon	SF	101	37	5
RB43	Kenyan Drake	LVR	100	36	7
RB44	Latavius Murray	NO	135	47	-3

 

The largest tier so far as we move through the majority of RB 3s and 4s. There’s one big difference and 3 lesser ones. The big one is James White. I get it he’s old, he’s not a sexy pick, this Pats team is in flux. If Cam is the starter, he’s going to struggle some but he still managed 49 catches on 62 targets last year and a Mac Jones offense should feature him in a much more traditional role. I’ll take that shot in the fringe RB 3 range. Hines is much the same type of archetype of player and Taylor might continue to eat into his targets a little bit but they’ll need a change of pace back and Wentz will still need a checkdown option. I’m taking Urban Meyer and the depth chart at their word with Etienne and Robinson and frankly I’m not sure how to play devil’s advocate and explain how the Jags could have RB24 & 27 this season. I think Etienne slowly takes over the lead roll but very slowly and in a very frustrating way. Lastly, I’m worried about Fournette, not because I think he’s untalented, I still believe, but because that backfield is crowded and I’m afraid that Bernard takes a lot of the targets that make him valuable in fantasy football. If he and jones split the rushes relatively similar to last year, with a small percentage of rushes going to Bernard but a majority of the rushes going to him that’s a split I’m not sure his value can survive.

 

Tier 6 – Second Fiddles
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
RB44	La'Mical Perine	NYJ	239	71	-27
RB45	AJ Dillon	GB	109	40	5
RB46	Salvon Ahmed	MIA	217	64	-18
RB47	Javonte Williams	DEN	87	32	15
RB48	Michael Carter	NYJ	103	38	10
RB49	Jamaal Williams	DET	128	45	4
RB50	Boston Scott	PHI	248	74	-24
RB51	JD McKissic	WAS	125	43	8
RB52	Javian Hawkins	ATL	238	70	-18
RB53	Justin Jackson	LAC	240	72	-19
RB54	James Conner	ARI	90	33	21
RB55	Phillip Lindsay	HOU	151	51	4
RB56	Rashaad Penny	SEA	164	55	1
RB57	Alexander Mattison	MIN	146	50	7

 

Let’s talk about Jets baby! I guess we’re assuming Tevin Coleman is better than La’Mical Perine this seems flawed on a couple different levels. Perine was alright in limited snaps as a rookie after being drafted in the 4^th round averaging 3.6 yards per attempt and 5.7 yards per target. Coleman was bad when on the field last year averaging 2 yards per attempt with 12 yards on 14 carries week 2 against the Jets being a real low point. I’m not suggesting that Perine is a must own but as a late round flier who’s main rivals are old and a rookie, presumed, receiving back. I like Carter but I think we’re getting way too far ahead of ourselves with him immediately taking over the main three down role. Moving on to Ahmed he doesn’t have the upside that Perine has but he does seem the most likely candidate to backup Gaskin in a role that last year was given workhorse levels when there was a healthy first option. Maybe I’m a touch too high (thinking 2-5 spots) but I’m not worried about Malcolm Brown or rookie Gerrid Doaks. Quickly on Javonte Williams, I like Williams and I think he has a bright future, but I think the Broncos lean on Gordon for one more season especially coming off his most efficient season on the ground. Regression to his mean rushing and receiving probably means similar output for Gordon. Which leaves Williams to pick up the Lindsey slack and show he deserves a greater share of the workload over the vet. What to do with the Eagles backfield outside of Miles Sanders? I think the backup role still belongs to Boston Scott, I do really like Kenneth Gainwell but I think he’s a year out from unseating Scott completely while slowly chipping away at his receiving game output as the year moves along. With Sanders’ inconsistencies that makes the battle for RB2 in Philly fascinating even if Hurts’ rushing output puts a bit of a damper on the running back output as a whole. Javian Hawkins & Justin Jackson are both young options on good offenses with questions after the RB1. Jackson is the best “veteran” option on the Chargers and Hawkins has to deal with Qadree Ollison who’s fine but nothing spectacular behind Mike Davis. And lastly in this group, James Conner, whom I can’t decide what to do with. I think Chase Edmonds is the far superior player at this point but a backfield split like we saw with Drake last year almost certainly means Conner is more valuable than this, on the other hand Edmonds can’t be ruled out as the heir apparent and a subsequent relegation to a two down back with limited snaps is what leaves Conner in this range for me instead of two levels higher in ADP.

 

Tier 7 – Rookies, Sophomores, and Last Chance Vets
Rank	Player	Tm	ADP	PADP	Diff
RB59	Larry Rountree III	LAC	327	93	-34
RB60	Kylin Hill	GB	327	93	-33
RB61	Rhamondre Stevenson	NE	214	63	-2
RB62	Sony Michel	NE	212	62	0
RB63	Gio Bernard	TB	198	58	5
RB64	Elijah Mitchell	SF	260	78	-14
RB65	Kenneth Gainwell	PHI	192	57	8
RB66	Tevin Coleman	NYJ	158	53	13
RB67	Anthony Mcfarland Jr	PIT	327	93	-26
RB68	Khalil Herbert	CHI	327	93	-25
RB69	Darrynton Evans	TEN	226	67	2
RB70	Darwin Thompson	KC	327	93	-23
RB71	Royce Freeman	DEN	327	93	-22
RB72	Qadree Ollison	ATL	327	93	-21
RB73	Devontae Booker	NYG	327	93	-20
RB74	Marlon Mack	IND	199	59	15
RB75	Mark Ingram	HOU	225	66	9
RB76	Carlos Hyde	JAX	263	79	-3
RB77	Chuba Hubbard	CAR	190	56	21
RB78	Darrel Williams	KC	205	61	17

 

Tier 7 is defined by me starting to find disagreement with the bottom RB tiers of ADP. First are two rookie backs in very different situations. Rountree joins a slightly cluttered backfield that spent most of the year scrambling to find itself between the Ekeler injury and the lack of anyone stepping up to take the lead role (early down role when Ekeler came back). They gave Kelley every chance to take the reins, but he was horribly inefficient and started to lose snaps to Ballage late in the year. This means a merely competent Rountree season as a rookie could lock him into a complimentary role on what we expect to be a good Chargers offense. Hill looks to be in good position to find a complimentary role as well but in Green Bay’s offense the role left open is Jamaal Williams’ passing down role. Hill has a better skill set than just a complimentary piece but with Jones and Dillon locked into the depth chart Hill, at least to start, will be pigeon-holed. Both are well worth a late round flier if you can stomach inconsistencies early. McFarland and Herbert fall into very similar spots as young guys with interesting skill sets on offenses that have sorted backfield situations. Herbert is a better dynasty bet than Mcfarland but I believe both only get to showcase their abilities in a meaningful way if Montgomery (and Cohen to a lesser extent) and Harris go down respectively. Mack, Hubbard, and Darrel Williams are in a diverse set of circumstances when it comes to being graded out similarly. Mack is coming off injury on a team that saw Taylor put his claim on the lead role and Hines show out as a pass catching option. He should have a role as the Colts seem hell bent on not completely leaning on Taylor but he’s only a deep handcuff especially coming off a season ending injury. Hubbard has two guys in front of him on the depth chart currently, he’s more talented than both, although Trenton Cannon has shown some upside. Hubbard could fill in at a great discount of talent and output for McCaffrey but he only has real value if McCaffrey goes down again and he can separate from the vets around him. Lastly, Darrel Williams. He’s good if CEH goes down and that’s assuming the Chiefs don’t use a pure RBBC like last year when he had around 300 total yards.

 

Land of Misfit Toys
Rank	Player	Team	Tiers	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
RB83	Ke’Shawn Vaughn	TB	8	308	88	-5
RB88	Benny Snell Jr	PIT	8	227	68	20
RB90	DeeJay Dallas	SEA	8	256	77	13
RB91	Joshua Kelley	LAC	8	250	76	15
RB92	Malcolm Brown	MIA	8	229	69	23
RB94	Trayveon Williams	CIN	8	287	83	11
RB97	Jeffery Wilson	SF	8	162	54	43
RB102	Ty Johnson	NYJ	8	311	89	13
RB103	Damien Williams	CHI	8	201	60	43
RB107	Kerryon Johnson	PHI	8	289	84	23
RB115	Matt Breida	BUF	9	273	80	34
RB120	Wayne Gallman	SF	9	244	73	46
RB131	Jerick McKinnon	KC	9	249	75	54
RB137	Brian Hill	TEN	9	313	90	46
RB160	Kyle Juszczyk	SF	10	278	82	78
RB164	Brandon Bolden	NE	10	276	81	83
RB171	Alex Collins	SEA	10	322	91	80
RB177	Jordan Howard	PHI	10	325	92	85

 

This tier isn’t a tier. It’s everyone outside of the other 7 tiers that showed up in the June 9^th ADP. I’m higher on one of them and that’s Vaughn, last year’s dynasty rookie sleeper du jour last season but never had the breakout, I don’t think he’s gonna make much of an impact this year either, but I thought it was interesting that I was higher even if by an insignificant amount.

There were two ADP RB 5s (RB49-60) outside of my top 7 tiers, the injured Jeffery Wilson from the 49ers and Damien Williams of the Bears. Wilson is going to miss time and in a Shanahan offense that sees a rotation of players he’s likely to slip down the depth chart until injuries cycle him back up. 97 might be a bit harsh but he’s no longer the clear backup when he returns so maybe a midpoint in the high 70s or low 80s is in line, but ADP was probably still working on dropping him due to the injury. As for Williams, even if he’s the third in Chicago (I think Khalil Herbert ultimately takes that spot) Montgomery is a rush hog, Cohen is a target hog, and Fields just adds one more rushing weapon to detract from any opportunities Damien Williams might have.

There were two ADP RB 6s (RB61-72), Benny Snell (RB68) and Malcolm Brown (RB69) I’m within 24 spots of both and that makes sense with both being 3^rd backs on teams with a clear RB 1. The route to relevance for both is injury and even then, neither is spectacular or all that useful through the air.

Let’s finish off this tier and running backs overall with the ADP RB7s (RB73-84) and we’ll focus on players I’m at least 36 spots lower on. Let’s start with the SF pair Gallman (RB73) and Juszczyk (RB82) both me and ADP are wrong. Gallman is the fifth best RB on this team and only really useful in my mind if Mostert goes down and both Sermon and Mitchell are incompetent as rookies. Juszczyk is useful, he’s good for a handlful of carries, or more with injuries, and a couple dozen targets year. He should and will be closer to the mid-80s like ADP in my next set of rankings. I honestly am not sure why McKinnon (RB75) and Bolden (RB81) are being drafted. McKinnon is RB5 on the Chiefs depth chart his skillset is mimicked if not bettered by both CEH and Darwin Thompson and he’s 3 years, and multiple injuries, removed from his nearly 1000 total yards breakout in Minnesota. As for Bolden, he hasn’t had more than 15 carries since 2015, he does vulture a couple TDs a year, but he’s also RB5 on the depth chart and although the Patriots use a rotation he seems to be as buried as he’s been for the last half decade.