2021 Fantasy Football - 1st PPR Ranks - Quarterbacks

Welcome to my first rankings of the season and the first of a handful (3-6) rankings I’ll put out over the next two months about fantasy football. This first set are my base PPR rankings with season long projections and dynasty ranks to follow shortly and standard ranks as we get closer to main drafting time. I also want to write up a couple mocks like normal and probably recap some bestball drafts that I like to use as a test of my rankings and what I actually believe instead of just what I think.

I also did a 14 team superflex start up and it leads me to one piece of advice for everyone playing in new, or even old, formats. Know the rules, do some research if its’ something completely new to you. It’s just so incredibly important to at least be slightly prepared and understand how you generally want to function and build your team.

Without further ado let’s talk about the QB position.

Rank	Player	Tm	Tier	ADP	Pos. ADP	Diff
Tier 1 – The Mahomes Tier (1)
QB1	Patrick Mahomes II	KC	1	21	1	0
It’s not that no one can challenge Mahomes it’s that he’s super consistent and has smaller question marks than anyone else at the position. He’s the only one I’m gambling on at the end of round 1 if I want to take a divergent strategy.
Tier 2 – The Very Good Tier (2-4)
QB2	Kyler Murray	ARI	2	39	3	-1
QB3	Josh Allen	BUF	2	32	2	1
QB4	Lamar Jackson	BAL	2	42	4	0
QB5	Dak Prescott	DAL	2	47	5	0
These are the guys I think have pure QB1 overall upside with few questions about circumstance. Jackson has supporting cast questions, but the rushing upside will always put him in this category. Allen has regression questions but kept his offensive coordinator and a stellar supporting cast. It’s not that there are zero concerns with theses guys just more than in the…
Tier 3 – Really Good w/ Specific ??s Tier (6-11)
QB6	Russell Wilson	SEA	3	56	7	-1
QB7	Aaron Rodgers	GB	3	62	8	-1
QB8	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	3	119	15	-7
QB9	Justin Herbert	LAC	3	54	6	3
QB10	Joe Burrow	CIN	3	93	12	-2
QB11	Deshaun Watson	HOU	4	124	17	-6
Really good with specific questions tier. Wilson has the Seahawks offense reverting to form, and questions about what exactly Shane Waldren’s offense will look like. Rodgers has his, ”will he play and will it be in Green Bay” questions. Lawrence is a rookie, Herbert was way better than expected, and Burrow got hurt. Lastly, Deshaun has a very different type of issue that’s much more serious an important than in football. This is also the first tier where I have at least at least a half tier difference between me and ADP. I’m 7 spots higher on Lawrence than consensus right now and while it’s an aggressive grade and liable to come down I think he’s more talented than last year’s rookies with similar questions to each of the others outside of Herbert.. Maybe… Probably. Watson right now is a hedge, if he plays the full year he’s a top 6 QB if he’s suspended for half a year he probably produces about here at the end of the season, and if he misses the year he will score no points (duh).
Tier 4 – Young Guys, Old Guys, and Even a Bear (12-26)
QB12	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	4	132	18	-6
QB13	Jalen Hurts	PHI	4	78	10	3
QB14	Daniel Jones	NYG	4	159	23	-9
QB15	Tom Brady	TB	4	73	9	6
QB16	Matt Ryan	ATL	4	108	14	2
QB17	Matthew Stafford	LAR	4	98	13	4
QB18	Carson Wentz	IND	4	145	20	-2
QB19	Sam Darnold	CAR	4	182	27	-8
QB20	Justin Fields	CHI	4	147	21	-1
QB21	Zach Wilson	NYJ	4	194	29	-8
QB22	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	4	89	11	11
QB23	Derek Carr	LVR	4	160	24	-1
QB24	Kirk Cousins	MIN	4	122	16	8
QB25	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	4	152	22	3
QB26	Baker Mayfield	CLE	4	143	19	7
This is where we’ll start talking about discrepancies instead each in the tier. This tier is too big, and Tannehill is to low. I won’t ever be able to get back up to consensus on Tannehill, but he should move up into the Brady, Jones range. Alongside Tua moving down a bit, Fields flipping with Darnold, and Darnold setting the top of the new tier. I believe in Tua’s talent pure and simple, and I believe the hip held him back in his rookie year and aDOT suggests that his lack of downfield passing wasn’t an issue merely his ability to drive the ball and be accurate. Jones was bad last year but so was the supporting cast with Saquon being out. A better line, his propensity for running and a lot more help with Galloday and Saquon should put Jones in a position to be more productive if not actually a good player. Before we get to Tannehill and finish the tier let’s talk about Darnold and Wilson. Wilson replaces Darnold, he’s going to start, he has a nice receiving corps, a questionable running game, a defense that isn’t quite ready, and most importantly, no Adam Gase. Darnold is also Gase free, but a poor offensive line means that there are questions about Darnold utilizing a pretty spectacular receiving corps and running game to bring out the talent and ceiling he showed coming into the league. Lastly, Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill isn’t bad, he’s proven what many saw and hope he’d develop into in Miami he’s finished in the overall top 12 each of the last two years. He’s good but he doesn’t provide the ceiling that many others do and that’s why he’ll never quite pop all the way up for me.
Tier 5 – Rookies & Prove Its Tier
QB27	Ryan Fitzpatrick	WAS	5	167	25	2
QB28	Jared Goff	DET	5	195	30	-2
QB29	Jameis Winston	NO	5	186	28	-1
QB30	Trey Lance	SF	5	169	26	4
QB31	Mac Jones	NE	5	231	33	-2
QB32	Teddy Bridgewater	DEN	5	261	36	-4
QB33	Jimmy Garoppolo	SF	5	235	34	-1
No big surprises here with Fitz and Goff starting but who know what that looks like, Winston & Bridgewater probably having the starting jobs but with sincere questions about what their offenses will look like, Jimmy G starting at the start of the season but with a hook we know is coming, and Lance and Jones taking over at some point in the season.
Tier 6 – Backups with Starter Upside Tier
QB34	Cam Newton	NE	6	207	31	3
QB35	Taysom Hill	NO	6	211	32	3
QB36	Drew Lock	DEN	6	254	35	1
QB37	Davis Mills	HOU	6	327	NR	37
QB38	Taylor Heinicke	WAS	6	327	NR	38
QB39	Andy Dalton	CHI	6	299	39	0
These are the last of the guys I think are actually usable this year with a variety of odds.