The Mountain West sits in my sixth position among conferences, this is a bit controversial what with the American still having an automatic BCS birth but the top is a bit firmer and the bottom is comparable but I like the top half a bit more so lets move on. This is the first year of a twelve team Mountain West with the addition of Utah State and San Jose State to the fold, these additions allow for divisions and a championship game. Let's take a moment to set up the divisions: West: Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State and UNLV Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State and Wyoming. An easy split to remember as it is along time zone lines and a fairly equitable split now and long term, the division the conference was done well and that should take just about any confusion out of the matter. So let us dig in we'll start first in the...
West: |last years W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %Yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Fresno State|9-4, 7, 6, 76%, 64%| Fresno enters the year as the favorite in the West division of the Mountain West. The West is the weaker of the two divisions with more questions about contending teams than there are in the Mountain. Fresno State had a bit of a lull in it's output in the last couple of years but last years squad made a good step forward which has helped push their stock skyward. With 13 of 22 starters returning and three quarters of their offensive output from a year ago returning the Bulldogs have the profile of a team that should make some noise in the MWC this season.
Worst Team: UNLV|2-11, 8, 10, 88%, 69%| UNLV has a lot coming back from a year ago, however when you bring a lot back from a bad team it doesn't give you bump up or the positive feelings that being a solid team with a lot returning does. Still, UNLV should be better this season but a lack of talent on the roster for the time being with be the biggest impediment to any significant jump in production
Intriguing Team: San Jose State|11-2, 7, 6, 60%, 65%| San Jose State is an intriguing team this year because of the change of conference and the turnover of the coaching staff. Mike McIntyre left the Spartans for the bottom of the Pac-12 Colorado Buffaloes and will be replaced by University of San Diego's Ron Caragher. McIntyre didn't leave the cupboard completely bare as David Fales returns at QB from a team that went 11-2 last season. Caragher did well as Jim Harbaugh's replacement (won 3 league titles at USD) and we will see if he can keep the momentum going in his next step up the ladder.
Mountain:
Best Team: Boise State|11-2, 6, 7, 75%, 53%| Boise has been one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the country, heck the nation, amassing a 163-29 record since 1998 and a .913 win percentage since Chris Peterson took over the team in 2006. 11-2 last year came with a dearth of returning talent but a close game at the start of the year versus Michigan State showed that the talent level, 2 and 3 deep is getting much better in continued high level success under Peterson. The big key for this years team will be the ability of Joe Southwick to take another step forward at QB and additional weapons on the outside for him to utilize as well continued development of a young defense.
Worst Team: New Mexico|4-9, 7, 4, 72%, 44%| New Mexico made strides last season as shown by the graph from Bill C's fantastic work over at SBNation, but that still meant they were still well below but strides have been made. The reason that UNM is here is because the Mountain division is pretty solid and the next worst team is Wyoming who has made strides as well the last couple of seasons. New Mexico should continue to make strides in Bob Davies second season but they still have a ways to go, especially in the pass game and on defense.
Intriguing Team: Utah State|11-2, 8, 7, 57%, 70%| Utah State is intriguing for the same reason as San Jose State but with a higher level of talent throughout the team thanks to the great work of Gary Anderson and staff. With Anderson and co. gone this seaon the Utah State welcomes Matt Wells as the new head coach. Wells was the OC and QB coach last season and is a graduate of Utah State and should bring some continuity to a situation that is always tough to navigate. What is the dropoff for the Aggies in year 1 post Anderson and how will they replace key contributors at the offensive skill positions.
Conference Standings:
West: Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, Nevada, Hawaii & UNLV
Mountain: Boise State, Utah State, Colorado, Air Force, Wyoming & New Mexico
Championship Game: Boise State & Fresno State Winner: Boise State
Monday, July 29, 2013
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
2013 CFB Season Preview: Conference Ranks
With around 40 days until the college football season and only baseball to hold us over until the end of August and well that just isn't exceptable. So I'm gonna spend the next couple weeks previewing the season starting with a conference rankings and breakdown. And then a look ahead breakdown of each conference this season. Let's begin with the independents who I didn't rank because of the difficulty of defining them.
Independents: Add two more to the ranks of the un-homed this season as New Mexico State and Idaho end up on the outside looking in with the colapse of the WAC. The military schools, Navy and Army still reside here although Navy will soon be moving to the American (not sure I like it yet). BYU and Notre Dame have national indentities and should once again be marquee Independents.
Best Team: Notre Dame still has the talent to be a top ten team this year, even with the loss of key defensive players and Everrett Gholson. The roster still has two elite defensive linemen in Louis Nix and Stephen Tuitt, a tandem who comined for 20.5 tackles for loss and a veteran offensive line that should be able to overcome most negatives attributed to Tommy Rees. They should be head and shoulders above BYU this season.
Worst Team: Idaho may be the worst team in the nation and now without a few cupcake WAC games that doesn't seem like there will be a whole lot of improvement this year. With less than average returning starters from last years team (not necesarrily horrible when bad), and add that to well below average recruiting that are associated with the Idaho program. Add in a quarterback with a 54% completion percentage and 4.1 yards per play and a running back with 2 TDs last year 2013 looks pretty bleak.
Now that we have that out of the way let's take a look at how the conferences pan out, I have then ranked in tiers and within tiers to take a look at where the conferences stand.
Tier 4: Overall weak but some bright spots this season will bring optimism
Sun Belt: The Sun Belt has been and will continue to be tthe most common point of entry into the FBS level, this year the conference welcomes Georgia State to the FBS level. Last year the conference was lead in the non-conference by Arkansas State and ULM who showed strength agains some lower tier SEC teams. Unfortunately with the turnover of conference realignment the Sun Belt is clearly the weakest conference.
Conference USA: Conference USA was raided again in the most recet waive of realignment losing Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF, all of whom but Memphis were top tier teams in the conference. To offset the attrition Conference USA raided the Sun Belt and took some of the leftovers of the WAC, joining in 2013 are Louisiana Tech, UTSA, WAC, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee and North Texas. The conference was definitely worsened by realignment but stays a step above the Sun Belt for now because of a handful of teams that should be above average.
Best Team: Arkansas State, has won the conference each of the last two seasons, with two different coaches and are looking to make it a third year in a row. New head coach Bryan Harsin comes to this team from Texas via Boise State but he had some struggles with transitioning at Texas. There is reason for some concern with the turnover at head coach but Arkansas State has brought talent in under the Malzahn and Freeze years and that is a majority of the battle when it comes to being on top in the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette, ULM and WKU will give them a run and I wouldn't be suprised to see the later two win the conference.
Worst Team: Georgia State, it is as simple as Georgia State being in year 2 of football and having very little talent stacking the roster. A move up and being barried deep in the most talented rich part of the country should allow them to pick up some scraps and make strides in the coming years but this years team is in for a rough ride.
Tier 3: Good conferences with strong upper tiers and abysmal lower tiers, aside from AAC stable
Mid-American: The most stable of the mid-majors this offseason the MAC saw no changes to the teams in it's conference, which is good because that means we can all focus on the MACtion this season. The top of league is good with NIU leading the bunch and we won't worry to much about the bottom because no matter how bad the directional Michigan schools get it's still MACtion.
The American: The American adds Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to replace Syrcause and Pitt this season and although Pitt was horrible it had some history to it's name and Syracuse would have been the third or fourth best team in the conference. Louisville is the best team hear but will have to be much more consitant next season to avoid an upset to give it a chance at the BCS Championship Game. The bottom of this conferences features Memphis and UCONN, the former being very much in the running for worst football program in the country at this moment.
Mountain West: The Mountain West would be considered up near the next tier if not for the attrition of TCU, Utah and BYU which combined with Fresno State would have given this conference a chance at 3-5 top 25 teams each year and in most of those years a top 10 team. The current iteration is still solid with two top 25 teams in Boise and Fresno and a dark horse (although popular) in San Jose State. The bottom still looks pretty lean but another year of some middle of the pack teams showing growth will continue to keep this league above the AAC.
Best Team: Louisville, is the best team in the American and with it's Sugar Bowl win in January has ascended to a potential BCS title game and an almost lock to be the BCS rep for the conference. I did give consideration to Boise who is in year 2 post Kellen Moore and should see a good step forward from their QB Starwick. Louisville doesn't have the question at QB and that's what puts them over the top in this tier.
Worst Teams: Memphis, has been bad for years and will continue to be bad, with a school that cares more about it's basketball than football it isn't hard to see this squad being in the bottom 5% of FBS even with new teams moving into the division. A move to the American should help revenue and bring some renewed enthusiasm but that won't improve the talent on the field this season.
Tier 5: Elite conferences but lack of elite top end teams and poor bowl performances leave these two a notch below the rest of the Big 5.
ACC: The ACC has had some elite teams in the last few years but they have an uncanny ability to lose games they shouldn't and then lay eggs in big games. Clemson and Florida State have been the cream of the crop in the ACC but Florida State lost to NC State last year and Clemson lost to the Wolfpack and Georgia Tech in 2011. Va Tech was abysmal last year but has routinely been the best team in the Coastal and among the best in the conference and Miami should put a positive show on this season. New additions from the former Big East in the forms of Syracuse and Pittsburgh don't add much to the football product this season and both should be middle of the pack. This conference may take a step back overall this season but Clemson has National Championship ability, Florida State has immense talent and Miami looks to be sneaky good.
Big Ten: The Big Ten has been dogged the last couple of years for the on the field product and at times for very good reason but it appears the cycle has come back around in the league as some young QBs have matured the last couple of season have matured and should improve the quality of play. Ohio State is the cream of the crop but a grouping of close calls last year still loom as a concern, Michigan State had the opposite problem and should see a normalization in luck and plethora of talent back for the 2013 season. Nebraska brings back a ton of talent as well but the Huskers have had four losses in each sesaon in the Big Ten and need to stop that trend to really make the next big step and fulfill the promise they showed before coming to the league. Wisconsin brought in a Gary Anderson with the departure of Bret Bielema to Arkansas. The league needs a better showing in bowl season and in big non-con games but should have a couple of elite teams and a potential BCS Championship game participant. The low end is still low but there are reasons for optimisms around Indiana and Minnesota, but Purdue and Iowa probably take a step back this season.
Best Team: Ohio State, is the best team out of these two conferences but Clemson definitely deserves to be heard out in this argument. Urban Meyer does great things in year two and Braxton Miller should be a lot of fun to watch. The biggest detraction is definitely some atrition on defense but Meyer has brought in two very talented classes and the cupboards are nowhere near bare.
Worst Team: Wake Forest used to be a team that you could count on to make a run every four years or som when they would pile up a group of seniors and be trouble for the traditional powers. There are no signs of this years team being one of those teams. I also think we see better years out of cellar mates Maryland and Boston College that will make scraping together wins for the Deamon Deacons even more difficult.
Tier 6: The elite conferences, only one has won 7 national championships in a row but all have multiple legitamate National Championship contenders among their ranks and have fertile recruiting grounds in their footprint.
Pac-12: The Pac-12 has had two teams in the top 6 in the final BCS standings each of the past three seasons. I don't expect that to change this season with the talent at both Stanford and Oregon remaining deep and the culture shock at Oregon being at a minimum with good continuity from last years staff. If UCLA can continue on the path the 2012 squad set they would give the conference a third team in the top 10-20 range in the standings and with offensive talent in place they definitely have a chance. What will define the 2013 Pac-12 however is how the teams in the middle perform, Oregon State surprised in 2012 but is that who they are, USC has talent but questoinable depth and questionable coaching has everyone wondering who they are; Can Washington become what we've thought every year of the Sark era and will either of the Arizona schools make the leap that seems within reach in year two of their respective head coaches? The answers to these questions will ultimately define the overall feel of the conference but the top should still be very strong.
Big XII: The Big XII may be the deepest league in country and there are fewer questions about teams 3-7 than in other leagues and their middle tier teams but the elite just don't quite matchup to the top 3 to 5 of the SEC. Texas looks like it is poised to retake the throne in the Big XII they have a bunch of returning starters and talent in the 2 deep but there remains the concerns that this team just hasn't put it all together in a few seasons. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will challenge Texas and both have talented teams but Oklahoma lost a lot from last years team and OK State has had a lot of turnover the last few years and still don't know who will start the year at QB. The Bottom of the conference is bad as well, Kansas is in the running for the worst team in the country and will field a JUCO all-star team, Kansas State lost just about everyone of significance from a special team last year and Texas Tech has a bright future but a present that is less than shining. This will be once again one of the best conferenes to watch each week but their are questions about the abilities at the top and that limits the upside this season.
SEC: Aside from the National Championships, what this conference has accomplished the last few seasons is quite incredible. They have routinely put 3-4 teams in the top ten of the final BCS rankings and two teams in BCS games. They are the only conference of the BCS era to put two teams in the championship game and have been consistantly great in producing pro talent. This season Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Ole Miss can all say to varying degrees that they have the talent to make a BCS bowl. The bottom does have some bad teams but of those Kentucky is the only one who hasn't made noise in the past five years and Missouri just joined the conference and needs to bring it's talent level up. Tennesse is still a blue blood with the means to regain where it was. The bottom line is the top of the league is deeper than any conference in the country and because that depth is 6-7 deep it doesn't matter that there is some riff raff at the bottom.
Best Team: Alabama has the most talent, the best coaching and the best recruiting in the country and are thus the best team. Do they have some holes to fill? Definitely, but with McCarron, Yeldon and Cooper on offense and C.J Mosley, Deion Belue and Vinnie Sunseri on defense this team should be and is the front runner to win the National Championship.
Worst Team: Colorado is the worst team in the BCS conferences and that includes Memphis, this is a school that doesn't invest in footbal and has a derth of talent in all respects. I love the McIntyre hire but it's gonna take atleast three years to see any real and tangible progress and probably 5-6 for them to be competitive in any meaningful way in the Pac-12.
That wraps up my Conference ranks, it took me much longer than I wanted but I hope to have more in-depth write ups on the BCS conferences before the season and maybe a MWC write-up in there as well.
Conference USA: Conference USA was raided again in the most recet waive of realignment losing Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF, all of whom but Memphis were top tier teams in the conference. To offset the attrition Conference USA raided the Sun Belt and took some of the leftovers of the WAC, joining in 2013 are Louisiana Tech, UTSA, WAC, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee and North Texas. The conference was definitely worsened by realignment but stays a step above the Sun Belt for now because of a handful of teams that should be above average.
Best Team: Arkansas State, has won the conference each of the last two seasons, with two different coaches and are looking to make it a third year in a row. New head coach Bryan Harsin comes to this team from Texas via Boise State but he had some struggles with transitioning at Texas. There is reason for some concern with the turnover at head coach but Arkansas State has brought talent in under the Malzahn and Freeze years and that is a majority of the battle when it comes to being on top in the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette, ULM and WKU will give them a run and I wouldn't be suprised to see the later two win the conference.
Worst Team: Georgia State, it is as simple as Georgia State being in year 2 of football and having very little talent stacking the roster. A move up and being barried deep in the most talented rich part of the country should allow them to pick up some scraps and make strides in the coming years but this years team is in for a rough ride.
Tier 3: Good conferences with strong upper tiers and abysmal lower tiers, aside from AAC stable
Mid-American: The most stable of the mid-majors this offseason the MAC saw no changes to the teams in it's conference, which is good because that means we can all focus on the MACtion this season. The top of league is good with NIU leading the bunch and we won't worry to much about the bottom because no matter how bad the directional Michigan schools get it's still MACtion.
The American: The American adds Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to replace Syrcause and Pitt this season and although Pitt was horrible it had some history to it's name and Syracuse would have been the third or fourth best team in the conference. Louisville is the best team hear but will have to be much more consitant next season to avoid an upset to give it a chance at the BCS Championship Game. The bottom of this conferences features Memphis and UCONN, the former being very much in the running for worst football program in the country at this moment.
Mountain West: The Mountain West would be considered up near the next tier if not for the attrition of TCU, Utah and BYU which combined with Fresno State would have given this conference a chance at 3-5 top 25 teams each year and in most of those years a top 10 team. The current iteration is still solid with two top 25 teams in Boise and Fresno and a dark horse (although popular) in San Jose State. The bottom still looks pretty lean but another year of some middle of the pack teams showing growth will continue to keep this league above the AAC.
Best Team: Louisville, is the best team in the American and with it's Sugar Bowl win in January has ascended to a potential BCS title game and an almost lock to be the BCS rep for the conference. I did give consideration to Boise who is in year 2 post Kellen Moore and should see a good step forward from their QB Starwick. Louisville doesn't have the question at QB and that's what puts them over the top in this tier.
Worst Teams: Memphis, has been bad for years and will continue to be bad, with a school that cares more about it's basketball than football it isn't hard to see this squad being in the bottom 5% of FBS even with new teams moving into the division. A move to the American should help revenue and bring some renewed enthusiasm but that won't improve the talent on the field this season.
Tier 5: Elite conferences but lack of elite top end teams and poor bowl performances leave these two a notch below the rest of the Big 5.
ACC: The ACC has had some elite teams in the last few years but they have an uncanny ability to lose games they shouldn't and then lay eggs in big games. Clemson and Florida State have been the cream of the crop in the ACC but Florida State lost to NC State last year and Clemson lost to the Wolfpack and Georgia Tech in 2011. Va Tech was abysmal last year but has routinely been the best team in the Coastal and among the best in the conference and Miami should put a positive show on this season. New additions from the former Big East in the forms of Syracuse and Pittsburgh don't add much to the football product this season and both should be middle of the pack. This conference may take a step back overall this season but Clemson has National Championship ability, Florida State has immense talent and Miami looks to be sneaky good.
Big Ten: The Big Ten has been dogged the last couple of years for the on the field product and at times for very good reason but it appears the cycle has come back around in the league as some young QBs have matured the last couple of season have matured and should improve the quality of play. Ohio State is the cream of the crop but a grouping of close calls last year still loom as a concern, Michigan State had the opposite problem and should see a normalization in luck and plethora of talent back for the 2013 season. Nebraska brings back a ton of talent as well but the Huskers have had four losses in each sesaon in the Big Ten and need to stop that trend to really make the next big step and fulfill the promise they showed before coming to the league. Wisconsin brought in a Gary Anderson with the departure of Bret Bielema to Arkansas. The league needs a better showing in bowl season and in big non-con games but should have a couple of elite teams and a potential BCS Championship game participant. The low end is still low but there are reasons for optimisms around Indiana and Minnesota, but Purdue and Iowa probably take a step back this season.
Best Team: Ohio State, is the best team out of these two conferences but Clemson definitely deserves to be heard out in this argument. Urban Meyer does great things in year two and Braxton Miller should be a lot of fun to watch. The biggest detraction is definitely some atrition on defense but Meyer has brought in two very talented classes and the cupboards are nowhere near bare.
Worst Team: Wake Forest used to be a team that you could count on to make a run every four years or som when they would pile up a group of seniors and be trouble for the traditional powers. There are no signs of this years team being one of those teams. I also think we see better years out of cellar mates Maryland and Boston College that will make scraping together wins for the Deamon Deacons even more difficult.
Tier 6: The elite conferences, only one has won 7 national championships in a row but all have multiple legitamate National Championship contenders among their ranks and have fertile recruiting grounds in their footprint.
Pac-12: The Pac-12 has had two teams in the top 6 in the final BCS standings each of the past three seasons. I don't expect that to change this season with the talent at both Stanford and Oregon remaining deep and the culture shock at Oregon being at a minimum with good continuity from last years staff. If UCLA can continue on the path the 2012 squad set they would give the conference a third team in the top 10-20 range in the standings and with offensive talent in place they definitely have a chance. What will define the 2013 Pac-12 however is how the teams in the middle perform, Oregon State surprised in 2012 but is that who they are, USC has talent but questoinable depth and questionable coaching has everyone wondering who they are; Can Washington become what we've thought every year of the Sark era and will either of the Arizona schools make the leap that seems within reach in year two of their respective head coaches? The answers to these questions will ultimately define the overall feel of the conference but the top should still be very strong.
Big XII: The Big XII may be the deepest league in country and there are fewer questions about teams 3-7 than in other leagues and their middle tier teams but the elite just don't quite matchup to the top 3 to 5 of the SEC. Texas looks like it is poised to retake the throne in the Big XII they have a bunch of returning starters and talent in the 2 deep but there remains the concerns that this team just hasn't put it all together in a few seasons. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will challenge Texas and both have talented teams but Oklahoma lost a lot from last years team and OK State has had a lot of turnover the last few years and still don't know who will start the year at QB. The Bottom of the conference is bad as well, Kansas is in the running for the worst team in the country and will field a JUCO all-star team, Kansas State lost just about everyone of significance from a special team last year and Texas Tech has a bright future but a present that is less than shining. This will be once again one of the best conferenes to watch each week but their are questions about the abilities at the top and that limits the upside this season.
SEC: Aside from the National Championships, what this conference has accomplished the last few seasons is quite incredible. They have routinely put 3-4 teams in the top ten of the final BCS rankings and two teams in BCS games. They are the only conference of the BCS era to put two teams in the championship game and have been consistantly great in producing pro talent. This season Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Ole Miss can all say to varying degrees that they have the talent to make a BCS bowl. The bottom does have some bad teams but of those Kentucky is the only one who hasn't made noise in the past five years and Missouri just joined the conference and needs to bring it's talent level up. Tennesse is still a blue blood with the means to regain where it was. The bottom line is the top of the league is deeper than any conference in the country and because that depth is 6-7 deep it doesn't matter that there is some riff raff at the bottom.
Best Team: Alabama has the most talent, the best coaching and the best recruiting in the country and are thus the best team. Do they have some holes to fill? Definitely, but with McCarron, Yeldon and Cooper on offense and C.J Mosley, Deion Belue and Vinnie Sunseri on defense this team should be and is the front runner to win the National Championship.
Worst Team: Colorado is the worst team in the BCS conferences and that includes Memphis, this is a school that doesn't invest in footbal and has a derth of talent in all respects. I love the McIntyre hire but it's gonna take atleast three years to see any real and tangible progress and probably 5-6 for them to be competitive in any meaningful way in the Pac-12.
That wraps up my Conference ranks, it took me much longer than I wanted but I hope to have more in-depth write ups on the BCS conferences before the season and maybe a MWC write-up in there as well.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
2013 NFL Draft Round 1 Review
1) Kansas City Chiefs: Eric Fisher (LT, Central Michigan), already 1/1 on not being right in my mock, but I like the selection Fisher was the more athletic of the two tackles and should be able to anchor the blindside Kansas City for a decade. #MACtion Grade: A
2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel (OT, Texas A&M), I like Joeckel as much as Fisher but I think this was a missed opportunity for the Jags, they don't have a pass rush and they had the ability to get one of the elite pass rushers in this draft at #2. Joeckel will be a stalwart on the offensive line for many years but I think it's a missed opportunity. Grade: C+
Trade: Dolphins trade the 12 & 42 for the 3 (Oak) MIA: Grade: B+ OAK: Grade: B-
3) Miami Dolphins: Dion Jordan (OLB, Oregon), The Dolphins trade up from the 12th pick to number 3 and take the OLB out of Oregon. Jordan is an explosive athlete, long lanky and has the ability to rush the passer and to drop back in coverage. Power move from the Dolphins to move and take a player they obviously really liked. Grade: B
4) Philadelphia Eagles: Lane Johnson (OT, Oklahoma), a former Quarterback and Tight End a raw player who is raw at the Offensive tackle. He needs a good amount of polish but he made big strides this year and should be able to at least step in at Right Tackle this year. Grade: B
5) Detroit Lions: Ezekial Ansah (DE, BYU), Raw athlete, reports out of the Senior Bowl were that he soaked up coaching like a sponge and worked hard. The kid is a beast and has been compared to Irvin last year but he actually showed skills in defending the run game. Schwartz and Cunningham should be able to coach this kid up. Grade B+
6) Cleveland Browns: Barkevious Mingo (OLB, LSU), Mingo fits well in the transition to the 3-4 for the Browns and I reallly like him here. I know the knocks on him, especially the body type, but he has great burst and with good coaching he should be able to increase his pass rush moves repitoire. Grade: A-
7) Arizona Cardinals: Johnathan Cooper (OG, North Carolina), Huge upgrade for Arizona who had arguably the worst interior line in the NFL. Cooper is freaky athletically in the middle and turns the corner and gets to the second level really well. Should see a little more time in the pocket in Arizona this year, very good pickc. Grade: A
Trade: St. Louis trades the 16, 46, 78 & 222 for 8 & 71 (Buf) STL: Grade: C+ BUF: Grade: A-
8) St. Louis Rams: Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia), I love Tavon Austin, the kid doesn't get hit hard, finds seams and has great short area burst. I do however think this is a bit early to take him as there were definitely pieces to be found here or with their original pick. Grade: B-
9) New York Jets: Dee MIlliner (CB, Alabama), Loose Revis, bring in a kid that mirrors the size and was close to a consensus top cornerback on the board. Without the injury to his shoulder and a myriad of other minor ailments this would be an A grade. Grade: A-
10) Tennessee Titans: Chance Warmack (OG, Alabama), A lot of money tied up in guards now in Tennessee but CJ2K has no excuses this season with a huge talent jump. Warmack should be a mauler and even for his size he has good enough agility turn the corner. Grade: B+
11) San Diego Chargers: D.J. Fluker (OT, Alabama), San Diego needs help in multiple places along the line and should be able to step in at guard or right tackle. Fluke is a very good technician and without the ability to get one of the "sure fire" left tackles, Fluker is a more than worthy consolation prize. Grade: B-
12) Oakland Raiders: D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston), I have to admit I don't know much of D.J. Hayden outside of the horrific injury he suffered in practice this season but he's a smaller CB in a league that skew bigger. I could be very wrong, please have mercy. Grade: C
13) New York Jets: Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri), Grade: C+
14) Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) at the start of the eval period he was considered the best prospect in the draft but a red flag with heart issues at the Combine sunk him down the board a bit and he never completely rebounded. I think this is a great 1 technique for Carolina and him and Kuechly should be a great combo in the middle. Grade: A
15) New Orleans Saints: Kenny Vacarro (S, Texas), Need meets value in New Orleans, the front seven could struggle up front during the transition to the 3-4 but Vacarro should step in day 1 and start for the Saints. Grade: :A
16) Buffalo Bills: E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State), Reach on an unproven commodity. Playbook was limited at FSU and I'm not sure Manuel couldn't have been gotten in round 2. Grade: D
17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia), Perfect match of player, need, value and terror within the division. Love this pick. Grade: A
Trade: San Francisco trades the 31 & 73 for 18 (Dal)
18) San Francisco 49ers: Eric Reid (S, LSU), I like the pick I understand the concerns from this year but he was hampered by young cornerbacks in front of him this past season. Opportunity to learn year 1 and get some very good coaching. Grade: B
19) New York Giants: Justin Pugh (OL, Syracuse), Giants needed O-Line upgrades and Pugh should be a solid contributor in the middle from day one. May have upside to slide out to right tackle. Not flashy but fills need in the second half of round 1. Grade: B-
20) Chicago Bears: Kyle Long (OL, Oregon), Raw raw talent on the offensive line, good athlete with good feet but I don't think he makes an impact off the bat with his lack of experience. Grade: C
21) Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame), Great value, dangerous TE combo to take pressure off Green. Grade: B+
Trade: Atlanta trades 30, 92 & 198 for 22 & 2015 7th rounder (STL) ATL: Grade: C+ STL: Grade: B
22) Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington), Atlanta moves up to take Desmond Trufant, matured as a player last season in the upper northwest and has a year behind Grimes and Dunta before being thrust into the limelight. With no great pass rushers on the board this was a good move up to get a player they really liked. Grade: B
23) Minnesota Vikings: Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida), Great value here as many thought that Floyd could be a top 5 picks. With Pat Williams leaving Floyd will help fill a void left in the middle. Leslie Fisher should have a field day moving around the defensive front and will have a chance to help him reach his full potential. Grade: A
24) Indianapolis Colts: Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State), Werner has the motor and a good amount of production but I'm not sure he will be able to play standing up. He should still create up front and at this point it may hvae been worth the risk. Grade: C+
25) Minnesota Vikings: Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State), The Vikings get good value with the pick aquired in the Seahawks trade. Rhodes is a big Corner who should be able to match up against Nelson and Marshall and atleast give Megatron some trouble in coverage. Grade: B-
26) Green Bay Packers: Datone Jones (DE, UCLA), The defensive line for the Packers was a strength as few as 3 years ago but the depth has slowly been eaten away and the cupboard has gotten a touch bare. Datone Jones has played a full season at 3-4 defensive end and he should be able to create some pressure with his hand in the ground. Grade: B-
27) Houston Texans: DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson), Absolute need and value pick for the Texas as Hopkins has the burst to be a legit threat accross from Andre Johnson. Hopkins and Clemson as a whole flew under the radar this past season. Grade B+
28) Denver Broncos: Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina), There were four 1st round defensive tackles, Floyd and Williams fell with the Vikings and Broncos the main benifciaries. Inside pressure should help eleviate stress from the outside pass rushers. Grade: A-
Trade: Minnesota trades 52, 83, 102 & 229 for 29 Min: Grade: D NE: Grade: A
29) Minnesota Vikings: Cordarelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee), High upside receiver that needs some time to grow into his physical attributes, he spent a couple years at the JUCO level and one year in Knoxville. This is a solid pick but this grade combined with the trade make this look bad. Grade: C+
30) St. Louis Rams: Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia), Character issues yes, but Ogletree is a top 15 talent at lineback he moves well in all directions and plays downhill. He should add talent and production to a linebacking corp that had some talent already. Grade: B+
31) Dallas Cowboys: Travis Frederick (OL, Wisconsin), A reach here for Dallas but after looking at the big board there wasn't a whole lot of interior line help at this point in the draft, Watson would have gotten a better grade from me. For the Cowboys sake hopefully Frederick works out like Zeitler did in Cincinnati. Grade: C-
32) Baltimore Ravens: Matt Elam (S, Florida), A little reckless in the way he plays but Elam is the kind of player much like the Jarvis Jones pick that just fits the team he goes to. Elam needs to reign in the way he plays a little bit but he's crazy in a good way and should at least partially fill the hole left by Ed Reed. Grade: A-
2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel (OT, Texas A&M), I like Joeckel as much as Fisher but I think this was a missed opportunity for the Jags, they don't have a pass rush and they had the ability to get one of the elite pass rushers in this draft at #2. Joeckel will be a stalwart on the offensive line for many years but I think it's a missed opportunity. Grade: C+
Trade: Dolphins trade the 12 & 42 for the 3 (Oak) MIA: Grade: B+ OAK: Grade: B-
3) Miami Dolphins: Dion Jordan (OLB, Oregon), The Dolphins trade up from the 12th pick to number 3 and take the OLB out of Oregon. Jordan is an explosive athlete, long lanky and has the ability to rush the passer and to drop back in coverage. Power move from the Dolphins to move and take a player they obviously really liked. Grade: B
4) Philadelphia Eagles: Lane Johnson (OT, Oklahoma), a former Quarterback and Tight End a raw player who is raw at the Offensive tackle. He needs a good amount of polish but he made big strides this year and should be able to at least step in at Right Tackle this year. Grade: B
5) Detroit Lions: Ezekial Ansah (DE, BYU), Raw athlete, reports out of the Senior Bowl were that he soaked up coaching like a sponge and worked hard. The kid is a beast and has been compared to Irvin last year but he actually showed skills in defending the run game. Schwartz and Cunningham should be able to coach this kid up. Grade B+
6) Cleveland Browns: Barkevious Mingo (OLB, LSU), Mingo fits well in the transition to the 3-4 for the Browns and I reallly like him here. I know the knocks on him, especially the body type, but he has great burst and with good coaching he should be able to increase his pass rush moves repitoire. Grade: A-
7) Arizona Cardinals: Johnathan Cooper (OG, North Carolina), Huge upgrade for Arizona who had arguably the worst interior line in the NFL. Cooper is freaky athletically in the middle and turns the corner and gets to the second level really well. Should see a little more time in the pocket in Arizona this year, very good pickc. Grade: A
Trade: St. Louis trades the 16, 46, 78 & 222 for 8 & 71 (Buf) STL: Grade: C+ BUF: Grade: A-
8) St. Louis Rams: Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia), I love Tavon Austin, the kid doesn't get hit hard, finds seams and has great short area burst. I do however think this is a bit early to take him as there were definitely pieces to be found here or with their original pick. Grade: B-
9) New York Jets: Dee MIlliner (CB, Alabama), Loose Revis, bring in a kid that mirrors the size and was close to a consensus top cornerback on the board. Without the injury to his shoulder and a myriad of other minor ailments this would be an A grade. Grade: A-
10) Tennessee Titans: Chance Warmack (OG, Alabama), A lot of money tied up in guards now in Tennessee but CJ2K has no excuses this season with a huge talent jump. Warmack should be a mauler and even for his size he has good enough agility turn the corner. Grade: B+
11) San Diego Chargers: D.J. Fluker (OT, Alabama), San Diego needs help in multiple places along the line and should be able to step in at guard or right tackle. Fluke is a very good technician and without the ability to get one of the "sure fire" left tackles, Fluker is a more than worthy consolation prize. Grade: B-
12) Oakland Raiders: D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston), I have to admit I don't know much of D.J. Hayden outside of the horrific injury he suffered in practice this season but he's a smaller CB in a league that skew bigger. I could be very wrong, please have mercy. Grade: C
13) New York Jets: Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri), Grade: C+
14) Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah) at the start of the eval period he was considered the best prospect in the draft but a red flag with heart issues at the Combine sunk him down the board a bit and he never completely rebounded. I think this is a great 1 technique for Carolina and him and Kuechly should be a great combo in the middle. Grade: A
15) New Orleans Saints: Kenny Vacarro (S, Texas), Need meets value in New Orleans, the front seven could struggle up front during the transition to the 3-4 but Vacarro should step in day 1 and start for the Saints. Grade: :A
16) Buffalo Bills: E.J. Manuel (QB, Florida State), Reach on an unproven commodity. Playbook was limited at FSU and I'm not sure Manuel couldn't have been gotten in round 2. Grade: D
17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia), Perfect match of player, need, value and terror within the division. Love this pick. Grade: A
Trade: San Francisco trades the 31 & 73 for 18 (Dal)
18) San Francisco 49ers: Eric Reid (S, LSU), I like the pick I understand the concerns from this year but he was hampered by young cornerbacks in front of him this past season. Opportunity to learn year 1 and get some very good coaching. Grade: B
19) New York Giants: Justin Pugh (OL, Syracuse), Giants needed O-Line upgrades and Pugh should be a solid contributor in the middle from day one. May have upside to slide out to right tackle. Not flashy but fills need in the second half of round 1. Grade: B-
20) Chicago Bears: Kyle Long (OL, Oregon), Raw raw talent on the offensive line, good athlete with good feet but I don't think he makes an impact off the bat with his lack of experience. Grade: C
21) Cincinnati Bengals: Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame), Great value, dangerous TE combo to take pressure off Green. Grade: B+
Trade: Atlanta trades 30, 92 & 198 for 22 & 2015 7th rounder (STL) ATL: Grade: C+ STL: Grade: B
22) Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington), Atlanta moves up to take Desmond Trufant, matured as a player last season in the upper northwest and has a year behind Grimes and Dunta before being thrust into the limelight. With no great pass rushers on the board this was a good move up to get a player they really liked. Grade: B
23) Minnesota Vikings: Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida), Great value here as many thought that Floyd could be a top 5 picks. With Pat Williams leaving Floyd will help fill a void left in the middle. Leslie Fisher should have a field day moving around the defensive front and will have a chance to help him reach his full potential. Grade: A
24) Indianapolis Colts: Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State), Werner has the motor and a good amount of production but I'm not sure he will be able to play standing up. He should still create up front and at this point it may hvae been worth the risk. Grade: C+
25) Minnesota Vikings: Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State), The Vikings get good value with the pick aquired in the Seahawks trade. Rhodes is a big Corner who should be able to match up against Nelson and Marshall and atleast give Megatron some trouble in coverage. Grade: B-
26) Green Bay Packers: Datone Jones (DE, UCLA), The defensive line for the Packers was a strength as few as 3 years ago but the depth has slowly been eaten away and the cupboard has gotten a touch bare. Datone Jones has played a full season at 3-4 defensive end and he should be able to create some pressure with his hand in the ground. Grade: B-
27) Houston Texans: DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Clemson), Absolute need and value pick for the Texas as Hopkins has the burst to be a legit threat accross from Andre Johnson. Hopkins and Clemson as a whole flew under the radar this past season. Grade B+
28) Denver Broncos: Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina), There were four 1st round defensive tackles, Floyd and Williams fell with the Vikings and Broncos the main benifciaries. Inside pressure should help eleviate stress from the outside pass rushers. Grade: A-
Trade: Minnesota trades 52, 83, 102 & 229 for 29 Min: Grade: D NE: Grade: A
29) Minnesota Vikings: Cordarelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee), High upside receiver that needs some time to grow into his physical attributes, he spent a couple years at the JUCO level and one year in Knoxville. This is a solid pick but this grade combined with the trade make this look bad. Grade: C+
30) St. Louis Rams: Alec Ogletree (LB, Georgia), Character issues yes, but Ogletree is a top 15 talent at lineback he moves well in all directions and plays downhill. He should add talent and production to a linebacking corp that had some talent already. Grade: B+
31) Dallas Cowboys: Travis Frederick (OL, Wisconsin), A reach here for Dallas but after looking at the big board there wasn't a whole lot of interior line help at this point in the draft, Watson would have gotten a better grade from me. For the Cowboys sake hopefully Frederick works out like Zeitler did in Cincinnati. Grade: C-
32) Baltimore Ravens: Matt Elam (S, Florida), A little reckless in the way he plays but Elam is the kind of player much like the Jarvis Jones pick that just fits the team he goes to. Elam needs to reign in the way he plays a little bit but he's crazy in a good way and should at least partially fill the hole left by Ed Reed. Grade: A-
2013 NFL Mock Draft
I have worked on at least three different mocks over the past couple of weeks but constant changes kept derailing me and I was going to have one out on Sunday and then as I was putting the final touches on it the Darrelle Revis trade went down and left me to rethink the draft once more.
1) Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel (LT, Texas A&M), Late push for Fisher from CMU but I'm gonna stick with the wire to wire leader.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon), Jordan should fill a need for Jacksconville that hasn't been properly filled in quite some time.
3) Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida), Oakland needs playmakers on defense and Floyd has the burst to disrupt things inside as a one gap player in the 4-3.
4) Phildadelphia Eagles: Eric Fisher (OT, CMU), Eagles get their starting left tackle for the next decade and fill a position that was pretty shaky with a consistent player who still has body to grow in to and plenty of athleticism.
5) Detroit Lions: Ezekial Ansah (DE, BYU), Ansah has only been playing football for three years but has developed well and showed at the Senior Bowl a propensity for learning and picking up new concepts. Ansah is a freak athlete and will add to a young defensive line that has improved their play each year.
6) Cleveland Browns: Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama), Cleveland doesn't have a playmaker option here but Milliner is the best CB in the draft and will be a great bookend with Joe Haden that should take a little pressure off a young and struggling front seven.
7) Arizona Cardinals: Chance Warmack (OG, Alabama), The Cardinals are alright with their tackles who haven't been great but have been good enough, however the interior of the line has been abysmal and Warmack should shore up one spot their which will be a pretty sizeable upgrade at the position.
8) Buffalo Bills: Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse), the rumors last night went from Bills being all in on Nassib because of a fear that the Jets would take him to the Bills prefering Barkley with this pick. I think the Barkley noise is just noise and that Buffalo will pair Nassib and Marrone back up.
9) New York Jets: Barkevious Mingo (DE/OLB, LSU), Lanky athlete with good play recognition ability and a disruptive force in the SEC Mingo may be a touch undersized but he should be able to contribute off the edge in 3-4 and with some coaching should hurt you too bad in coverage.
10) Tennessee Titans: Johnathan Cooper (OG, North Carolina), Tennessee ugraded at guard during free agency getting Levitre from Buffalo but they still need help on the inside and Cooper would pair nicely and give Johnson the best blocking front five he has seen in his career. It's a risk because they will have a ton of money locked up in interior linemen.
11) San Diego Chargers: Lane Johnson (OT, Oklahoma), San Diego gets the third best OT in the draft and the last one considered elite by many. Johnson is raw having played OT tackle for just a couple of years but he has great athleticism and there are certainly more than a few team enamored with the possibilities.
12) Miami Dolphins: Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah), Star may be one of the top three best and safest picks in the draft. He should be able to play a 0, 1, or 3 techniques and will be a great asset to add to a defense that is putting together a good group of front seven players.
13) New York Jets (via Tampa Bay): Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State), with Milliner gone, Xavier Rhodes is many peoples second best corner back and with the trade of Darrelle Revis the Jets will target DBs early in this draft.
14) Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri), This is a no brainer the Panthers have been atrocious up front the last couple of years and with talent on the offensive side of the ball the Panthers need to field a defense that can at lest be competitive week in and week out.
15) New Orleans Saints: Kenny Vacarro (S, Texas), the Saints are switching to a 3-4 defense which brings a myriad of picks into play here but no matter what they do in the front seven it doesn't change the fact that their secondary is more porous than most sieves. Vacarro should be able to make an impact right away in the Big Easy.
16) St. Louis Rams: Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia), the most electrifying player in the draft has his detractions, mostly his size, but a study of Austin's game tape shows a player that is instictive in his ability to find seems and to avoid the big hits that plague certain diminuitive players.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia), the Steelers are old and that is especially the case on defensive side of the ball. Jones has the best produciton of the 3-4 OLBs but a chronic medical issue and his somone erratic play have concerned some but if there is one thing the Steelers like it is football players (excuse the cliche) and Jones fits that mold.
18) Dallas Cowboys: D.J. Fluker (OT, Alabama), this is a perfect fit, the Cowboys have been pretty meh on the O-line for too many years and it is hurting the production of their skill players. Fluker can upgrade at least RT, RG, LG and even possibly LT for the Cowboys. It's not flashy but some times you just need to take a hog-moly and live with it.
19) New York Giants: Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State), This is a little bit of an upset but the Giants have been plug and playing linebackers for three years now and Chase Blackburn isn't the answer. Brown didn't get the hype of a Te'o or play in the SEC like Minter but in the Giants skeem Brown would be able to utilize his sideline to sideline athletic ability behind one of the best front fours in the NFL.
20) Chicago Bears: Alec Ogletree (ILB, Georgia), With Urlacher possibly not returning to the is team and an aging LB corp the Bears need LB help and I think Ogletree would be a great fit for a template Tampa 2 defense. Ogletree has some character concerns with a DUI this offseason but this a veteran laden team that should provide stability for Ogletree and help him succeed.
21) Cincinnati Bengals: Cordarelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee), The Bengals need LB help and that makes Minter a possible choice here but they don't have much help offensively for A.J. Green and Patterson would definitely be able to be a very good #2 to bookend with Green. Andy Dalton will be thanking management for another weapon to spread out defenses and the Bengals should be able to find a RB in rounds 2 or 3.
22) St. Louis Rams: Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame), With Austin in the slot with their first pick I think the Rams upgrade at TE too by added Eifert, he will immediately be able to stretch the seam for a team that needs to eleviate the pressure on the outside in the passing game.
23) Minnesota Vikings: Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina), with an ever aging interior in Minnesota Williams would be able to study under the tuteledge of Pat Williams as he adjusts to life in the NFL.
24) Indianapolis Colts: Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State), Moving to a 3-4 may present some challenges for the Colts but they need more playmakers on defense and Werner should be able to provide that. He needs to put on some weight for the next level but he hasgood athleticism and enough production to be fairly confident in his projection to the next level.
25) Minnesota Vikings: Mant Te'o (MLB, Notre Dame), I hate this pick but all signs point to teh Irish loving Vikings drafting Te'o. He's a good middle linebacker but his production at Notre Dame seems rooted in a dominant front four and the ability to take advantage of bad QB play. The Bama game tape was atrocious and NFL QBs don't make nearly the mistakes seem at the college level.
26) Green Bay Packers: Menelik Watson (OT, Florida State), I've seen RB mocked to the Packers and an ealry iteration of my mock had that too, but I think Thompson knows the value at running backs just isn't there in the first round except for transcendent talents. Watson is a player with high upside and the ability to slot at every line position except center and should add to one of the weakest parts of the Packers teams.
27) Houston Texans: Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State), Houston needs help for Andre Johnson, a theme of many a draft for Houston the last couple of years, and will look to Wheaton to provide another option for Schaub.
28) Denver Broncos: Datone Jones (DE, UCLA), The Broncos lost Dumervil this offseason and you can never have enough pass rushers. Jones would be able to aleviate the void left by Dumervil and would be a solid selection for the Broncos at this stage in the draft.
29) New England Patriots: D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston), Hayden has gained a lot of steam late in the proccess here and has even moved into the top CB slot for Mike Mayock of the NFL Network. Hayden has some injury concern but his senior year at Houston was very impressive and the Patriots still need help in the secondary.
30) Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington), Trufant is a solid CB prospect out of Washington and with the top 2 CBs for Atlanta looking like they will be transitioning out of town at the end of the year the Falcons would be wise to snatch up a CB or two in this draft to lessen teh blow next season.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International), Yes the 49ers signed Ed Reed, but it was to a one year contract and he doesn't have more than a couple years left in the tank. Cyprien out of FIU should be able to provide the help in the secondary and would probably benefit from a year behind Reed to learn and grow into a starter. The key here is the 49ers have the roster depth to develope a first round talent.
32) Baltimore Ravens: Eric Reid (S, LSU) with the loss of Reed and the loss of Lewis I think this pick comes down to a pair of LSU teammates. Reid or Minter will be this pick and I went with Reid because I believe he's the better player and S is the bigger need. Reid is instinctive and should add to the list of LSU DBs
1) Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel (LT, Texas A&M), Late push for Fisher from CMU but I'm gonna stick with the wire to wire leader.
2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan (DE, Oregon), Jordan should fill a need for Jacksconville that hasn't been properly filled in quite some time.
3) Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd (DT, Florida), Oakland needs playmakers on defense and Floyd has the burst to disrupt things inside as a one gap player in the 4-3.
4) Phildadelphia Eagles: Eric Fisher (OT, CMU), Eagles get their starting left tackle for the next decade and fill a position that was pretty shaky with a consistent player who still has body to grow in to and plenty of athleticism.
5) Detroit Lions: Ezekial Ansah (DE, BYU), Ansah has only been playing football for three years but has developed well and showed at the Senior Bowl a propensity for learning and picking up new concepts. Ansah is a freak athlete and will add to a young defensive line that has improved their play each year.
6) Cleveland Browns: Dee Milliner (CB, Alabama), Cleveland doesn't have a playmaker option here but Milliner is the best CB in the draft and will be a great bookend with Joe Haden that should take a little pressure off a young and struggling front seven.
7) Arizona Cardinals: Chance Warmack (OG, Alabama), The Cardinals are alright with their tackles who haven't been great but have been good enough, however the interior of the line has been abysmal and Warmack should shore up one spot their which will be a pretty sizeable upgrade at the position.
8) Buffalo Bills: Ryan Nassib (QB, Syracuse), the rumors last night went from Bills being all in on Nassib because of a fear that the Jets would take him to the Bills prefering Barkley with this pick. I think the Barkley noise is just noise and that Buffalo will pair Nassib and Marrone back up.
9) New York Jets: Barkevious Mingo (DE/OLB, LSU), Lanky athlete with good play recognition ability and a disruptive force in the SEC Mingo may be a touch undersized but he should be able to contribute off the edge in 3-4 and with some coaching should hurt you too bad in coverage.
10) Tennessee Titans: Johnathan Cooper (OG, North Carolina), Tennessee ugraded at guard during free agency getting Levitre from Buffalo but they still need help on the inside and Cooper would pair nicely and give Johnson the best blocking front five he has seen in his career. It's a risk because they will have a ton of money locked up in interior linemen.
11) San Diego Chargers: Lane Johnson (OT, Oklahoma), San Diego gets the third best OT in the draft and the last one considered elite by many. Johnson is raw having played OT tackle for just a couple of years but he has great athleticism and there are certainly more than a few team enamored with the possibilities.
12) Miami Dolphins: Star Lotulelei (DT, Utah), Star may be one of the top three best and safest picks in the draft. He should be able to play a 0, 1, or 3 techniques and will be a great asset to add to a defense that is putting together a good group of front seven players.
13) New York Jets (via Tampa Bay): Xavier Rhodes (CB, Florida State), with Milliner gone, Xavier Rhodes is many peoples second best corner back and with the trade of Darrelle Revis the Jets will target DBs early in this draft.
14) Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson (DT, Missouri), This is a no brainer the Panthers have been atrocious up front the last couple of years and with talent on the offensive side of the ball the Panthers need to field a defense that can at lest be competitive week in and week out.
15) New Orleans Saints: Kenny Vacarro (S, Texas), the Saints are switching to a 3-4 defense which brings a myriad of picks into play here but no matter what they do in the front seven it doesn't change the fact that their secondary is more porous than most sieves. Vacarro should be able to make an impact right away in the Big Easy.
16) St. Louis Rams: Tavon Austin (WR, West Virginia), the most electrifying player in the draft has his detractions, mostly his size, but a study of Austin's game tape shows a player that is instictive in his ability to find seems and to avoid the big hits that plague certain diminuitive players.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarvis Jones (OLB, Georgia), the Steelers are old and that is especially the case on defensive side of the ball. Jones has the best produciton of the 3-4 OLBs but a chronic medical issue and his somone erratic play have concerned some but if there is one thing the Steelers like it is football players (excuse the cliche) and Jones fits that mold.
18) Dallas Cowboys: D.J. Fluker (OT, Alabama), this is a perfect fit, the Cowboys have been pretty meh on the O-line for too many years and it is hurting the production of their skill players. Fluker can upgrade at least RT, RG, LG and even possibly LT for the Cowboys. It's not flashy but some times you just need to take a hog-moly and live with it.
19) New York Giants: Arthur Brown (LB, Kansas State), This is a little bit of an upset but the Giants have been plug and playing linebackers for three years now and Chase Blackburn isn't the answer. Brown didn't get the hype of a Te'o or play in the SEC like Minter but in the Giants skeem Brown would be able to utilize his sideline to sideline athletic ability behind one of the best front fours in the NFL.
20) Chicago Bears: Alec Ogletree (ILB, Georgia), With Urlacher possibly not returning to the is team and an aging LB corp the Bears need LB help and I think Ogletree would be a great fit for a template Tampa 2 defense. Ogletree has some character concerns with a DUI this offseason but this a veteran laden team that should provide stability for Ogletree and help him succeed.
21) Cincinnati Bengals: Cordarelle Patterson (WR, Tennessee), The Bengals need LB help and that makes Minter a possible choice here but they don't have much help offensively for A.J. Green and Patterson would definitely be able to be a very good #2 to bookend with Green. Andy Dalton will be thanking management for another weapon to spread out defenses and the Bengals should be able to find a RB in rounds 2 or 3.
22) St. Louis Rams: Tyler Eifert (TE, Notre Dame), With Austin in the slot with their first pick I think the Rams upgrade at TE too by added Eifert, he will immediately be able to stretch the seam for a team that needs to eleviate the pressure on the outside in the passing game.
23) Minnesota Vikings: Sylvester Williams (DT, North Carolina), with an ever aging interior in Minnesota Williams would be able to study under the tuteledge of Pat Williams as he adjusts to life in the NFL.
24) Indianapolis Colts: Bjoern Werner (DE, Florida State), Moving to a 3-4 may present some challenges for the Colts but they need more playmakers on defense and Werner should be able to provide that. He needs to put on some weight for the next level but he hasgood athleticism and enough production to be fairly confident in his projection to the next level.
25) Minnesota Vikings: Mant Te'o (MLB, Notre Dame), I hate this pick but all signs point to teh Irish loving Vikings drafting Te'o. He's a good middle linebacker but his production at Notre Dame seems rooted in a dominant front four and the ability to take advantage of bad QB play. The Bama game tape was atrocious and NFL QBs don't make nearly the mistakes seem at the college level.
26) Green Bay Packers: Menelik Watson (OT, Florida State), I've seen RB mocked to the Packers and an ealry iteration of my mock had that too, but I think Thompson knows the value at running backs just isn't there in the first round except for transcendent talents. Watson is a player with high upside and the ability to slot at every line position except center and should add to one of the weakest parts of the Packers teams.
27) Houston Texans: Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon State), Houston needs help for Andre Johnson, a theme of many a draft for Houston the last couple of years, and will look to Wheaton to provide another option for Schaub.
28) Denver Broncos: Datone Jones (DE, UCLA), The Broncos lost Dumervil this offseason and you can never have enough pass rushers. Jones would be able to aleviate the void left by Dumervil and would be a solid selection for the Broncos at this stage in the draft.
29) New England Patriots: D.J. Hayden (CB, Houston), Hayden has gained a lot of steam late in the proccess here and has even moved into the top CB slot for Mike Mayock of the NFL Network. Hayden has some injury concern but his senior year at Houston was very impressive and the Patriots still need help in the secondary.
30) Atlanta Falcons: Desmond Trufant (CB, Washington), Trufant is a solid CB prospect out of Washington and with the top 2 CBs for Atlanta looking like they will be transitioning out of town at the end of the year the Falcons would be wise to snatch up a CB or two in this draft to lessen teh blow next season.
31) San Francisco 49ers: Jonathan Cyprien (S, Florida International), Yes the 49ers signed Ed Reed, but it was to a one year contract and he doesn't have more than a couple years left in the tank. Cyprien out of FIU should be able to provide the help in the secondary and would probably benefit from a year behind Reed to learn and grow into a starter. The key here is the 49ers have the roster depth to develope a first round talent.
32) Baltimore Ravens: Eric Reid (S, LSU) with the loss of Reed and the loss of Lewis I think this pick comes down to a pair of LSU teammates. Reid or Minter will be this pick and I went with Reid because I believe he's the better player and S is the bigger need. Reid is instinctive and should add to the list of LSU DBs
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Pre-Super Bowl Draft
My first attempt at a 2013 mock draft, no write ups this time for more research,
| Kansas City | Geno Smith QB |
| Jacksonville | Bjoern Werner DE |
| Oakland | Damontre Moore DE |
| Philadelphia | Luke Joeckel OT |
| Detroit | Dee Milliner CB |
| Cleveland | Star Lotulelei DT |
| Arizona | Eric Fisher OT |
| Buffalo | Mike Glennon QB |
| New York Jets | Jarvis Jones OLB |
| Tennessee | Kenny Vaccaro S |
| San Diego | Keenan Allen WR |
| Miami | Barkevious Mingo OLB |
| Tampa Bay | Sheldon Richardson DT |
| Carolina | Chance Warmack OG |
| New Orleans | Dion Jordan OLB |
| St. Louis | Lane Johnson OT |
| Pittsburgh | Ezekiel Ansah DE |
| Dallas | Sam Montgomery DE |
| New York Giants | Alec Ogletree ILB |
| Chicago | Tyler Eifert TE |
| Cincinnati | Johnthan Banks CB |
| St. Louis | DeAndre Hopkins WR |
| Minnesota | Cordarrelle Patterson WR |
| Indianapolis | Jonathan Cooper OG |
| Seattle | Johnathan Hankins DT |
| Green Bay | Kevin Minter ILB |
| Houston | Xavier Rhodes CB |
| Denver | Sharrif Floyd DT |
| New England | Manti Te'o ILB |
| Atlanta | Zach Ertz TE |
| Baltimore | Desmond Trufant CB |
| San Francisco | John Jenkins NT |
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