Hello all, it’s been
a while. I have excuses but you don’t want to hear them, and I want to, as always
hurriedly tell you about the 2020 NFL Draft. I will say that because of the
lack of pro days I have rated a lot fewer prospects but we’ll still have enough
for a big board I promise. I’m going to do four pieces this year. Skill Positions
(QB/RB/WR/TE), Offensive Line (OT/G/C), Front Seven (Interior/Edge/Off-Ball
LBs), and Defensive Backs (CB/SS/FS).
Quarterbacks
This is the Skill Position rankings and we start with the premier position in the NFL, Quarterback. This is a good year for QBs with two, very good, prospects up top, and a strong group of just behind who offer a bunch of different styles to choose from.
Name | Team |Height,
Weight | Attempts | Completion % | Role (Grade)
Joe Burrow | LSU
| 6’4”, 216 lbs. | 527 | 76.28% | ES (7.0)
Tua Tagovailoa
| Alabama | 6’1”, 218 lbs. | 252 | 71.43% | ES (6.5)
Burrow and Tua would be
equals for me but Tua’s hip is well enough known and the risks have been talked
about and discussed that I matters. Both are exciting prospects. Burrow is a
one year wonder but he has the recruiting pedigree and he rose to the occasion
multiple times this year while taking full advantage of a new offensive system.
Tua burst onto the scene with a stellar performance in relief of Hurts as a
true freshman and has the arm talent to make throws that many cannot. He needs
to improve his decision making and his self-preservation but if healthy he
could very easily be the QB1 of this draft when all is said and done.
Justin Herbert
| Oregon | 6’6 1/4”, 236 lbs. | 428 | 66.82% | PS (6.0)
Jake Fromm |
Georgia | 6’2”, 220 lbs. | 385 | 60.78% | PS (5.8)
Jordan Love |
Utah State | 6’4”, 220 lbs. | 473 | 61.95% | PS (5.6)
Jalen Hurts | Oklahoma
| 6’2”, 219 lbs. | 340 | 69.71% | PS (5.6)
This next quartet all
have high upsides, but they all have potentially fatal flaws. Herbert is the
proto-type size-wise, and is well above average as an athlete. He had to deal with
injuries around him at Oregon this year but he also made an increased number of
baffling decisions with the football that raise a lot of questions. This wouldn’t
be a problem if he was trying to play hero ball and make up for the roster
deficiencies but he didn’t really drag the team kicking and screaming to
victory very often. He’s a good prospect and the highs are sky high. (Note:
This isn’t me saying he can’t lead, that’s stupid he didn’t become a starter at
a P5 school and lead them to well over .500 by not being able to inspire, lead,
and encourage.) Fromm took a step back after the stellar start to his career
but watching him you can see it’s all there. He needs to be a bit more aggressive,
but he makes tight window throws, he moves well enough, and sees/understands
the game extremely well, but is definitely the boring/safe choice at QB. Love and
Hurts are kind of inseparable to me. They had opposite 2019’s with Love taking
a step back under a new coaching staff and scheme and Hurts taking a step
forward under a new staff and scheme. Love has all the physical tools he can
make wow throws off platform. He also was unlucky to lose talent around him and
a head coach heading into the most critical year of his career. Hurts was
better than expected at Oklahoma, not that he was expected to be bad, but I think
he exceeded most expectations and he and Lincoln Riley did well to meld what
they both do best. I still have questions about Hurts as a pure passer and his
decision making at times but he and Love both deserve a shot to lead teams in
the NFL.
Jacob Eason |
Washington | 6’6”, 228 lbs. | 405 | 64.20% | PS (5.4)
Tyler Huntley
| Utah | 6’1”, 205 lbs. | 301 | 73.09% | PS (5.3)
Anthony Gordon
| Washington State | 6’3”, 205 lbs. | 585 | PS (5.1)
Cole McDonald
| Hawaii | 6’3 1/8”, 215 lbs. | 511 | PS (5.0)
Jake Luton |
Oregon State | 6’6 1/8”, 224 lbs. | 358 | PS (5.0)
This last quintet are
all more flawed quarterbacks, but each has a trait that I liked. Eason has the arm.
The ball explodes of his hand but he’s too inconsistent right now especially when
under duress. Huntley is a baller. He can make odd angled and body position throws
and gets the team up the field. He’s 80% Hurts and that could be a useful
player but there’s a lot of variance right now. Gordon, well Gordon is the
perfect embodiment of his head coach. The system is there, and he plays
generally within it but he’s reckless and will just go off. It’s frenetic, it’s
fun to watch but he is about as true a “Swing that Sword” mentality as we’ve
seen out Wazzou in a while. Speaking of going of script and off the rails, Cole
McDonald. McDonald is going to have to clean up a lot, his season went from hug
wins at the start of the year to being benched for too many turnovers. The
Arizona game is a perfect encapsulation of the good and bad. He methodically picks
the Arizona defense apart, he also threw 4 interceptions, but he threw 4 TDs
and 378 yards and won the game. McDonald has traits and tools but needs to be
reigned in like a colt, if he’s going to realize what looks to be a good amount
of potential. Luton is Fromm but less consistent. He generally makes the right
read, can make all the throws, but he misses too frequently and gets a bit too
skittish under pressure but he should be a good backup who’s serviceable if
unspectacular when he gets a chance to lead the team.
I like the QB class.
Burrow and Tua are franchise leaders. Herbert, Love, Hurts and Fromm all have
flaws but in the right system and with coaching who understands what they’re
good at they all have the chance to start for someone for 15 years. Behind that
you need to the right system, patience, and a bit of luck in development of the
quarterbacks but that’s right on par with just about every year.
Running Backs
This year’s running
back class is good, relatively deep, and as always has players that fill a
variety of roles. For me there’s a trio of trios at the top of the draft, and some
disagreement with the consensus.
Name | Team |Height,
Weight | Touches (Rushes + Catches) | Adj. Yards Per Rush | Adj. Yards Per Catch
| Production Score | Role (Grade)
Jonathan Taylor
| Wisconsin | 5’10 1/4”, 226 lbs. | 328 | 7.91 | 9.96 | 15.45 | S (7.3)
D’Andre Swift
| Georgia | 5’8 1/4”, 212 lbs. | 220 | 6.87 | 7.35 | 8.60 | S (7.2)
Cam Akers | Florida
State | 5’10 3/8”, 217 lbs. | 261 | 6.07 | 7.56 | 9.40 | S (7.1)
Three at the top of
the group for me are all a bit different and played in different landscapes in college.
Taylor was behind a good, but not great offensive line at Wisconsin. He saw plenty
of big holes, but his acceleration and top end speed allowed him to bust many big
plays in tighter spaces. He’s a bit stiff in the hips but he’s not untwitchy,
he has good vision, and despite a lack of receiving opportunity looked good in
space in his limited, but increased, chances in the passing game in 2019. Swift
is electric in the pass game. He’s no slouch in the run game. He’s quick,
solid, understands how to utilize his blocking and his leverage, he’s
consistent and gets what’s there and can break one. He truly reminds me of
Jacobs in the run game, with a bit more dynamism in the passing game.
Clyde
Edwards-Helaire | LSU | 5’7 1/4”, 207 lbs. | 270 | 7.95 | 6.47 | 11.44 | ES
(6.7)
J.K. Dobbins |
Ohio State | 5’9 1/2”, 209 lbs. | 324 | 7.94 | 9.21 | 14.96 | ES (6.6)
Zack Moss | Utah
| 5’9 3/8”, 223 lbs. | 328 | 7.91 | 9.96 | 12.18 |ES (6.4)
Speaking of dynamism in
the passing game, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) is that. CEH is the guy who gets
you what you need when you give him the ball. He’s low and stocky, with good
balance and a knack for the sticks. He produced in a much improved LSU offense
that finally seems to have realized that players that can make things happen in
space are a good thing to utilize out of the backfield. Dobbins embodies what
Ohio State has been on offense the last couple of seasons he’s quick, agile,
and often one of the best athletes on the field. He had a big workload at Ohio
State and was productive in an offense that was wide open with Justin Fields
and Ryan Day at the helm. Dobbins is behind the top group for me because I felt
he was too inconsistent about hitting the right hole and with his hands in the passing
game. He’s a good player and cleaning up some things he’ll be a long term asset
(whatever that means at RB) for the club that drafts him. Moss is the player I
like that worries me the most. He’s short and think with great balance, good vision
and understanding and poor metrics. He gets the job done and was the engine for
a Utah offense that was more efficient than expected in 2019.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
| Vanderbilt | 5’10”, 215 lbs. | 226 | 6.03 | 7.82 | 8.19 | ES (6.1)
Darrynton Evans
| Appalachian State | 5’10 1/8” lbs. | 276 | 7.10 | 10.52 | 12.28 | PS (6.0)
AJ Dillon | Boston
College | 6’0 3/8”, 247 lbs. | 331 | 6.11 | 12.61 | 14.32 | PS (6.0)
Vaughn is the darling
of many, and I don’t not like him, but I see flaws. He’s athletic and has some
wiggle but he misreads holes too often and is more of a solid option out of the
backfield who did well in a bad situation than a game changer for me. Evans is
my favorite running back in this draft. I loved watching him, the burst and
elusiveness he’s going to be a contributor in a spot role early on in the NFL.
Dillon is discount Derrick Henry, with less athleticism. And that’s a useful back
in the NFL but suppresses his value moving to the next level.
Eno Benjamin |
Arizona State | 5’8 7/8”, 207 lbs. | 295 | 5.01 | 6.89 | 9.04 | PS (5.6)
Benjamin reminds me
of, and I know this will seem uninspired, Jalen Richard. Richard has had a
solid if unspectacular career with the Raiders but he’s productive, been used
in a main role in a pinch, and provides a great change of pace and receiving
threat. Benjamin is twitchy and bouncy he handled a large workload behind a bad
offensive line and tough to bring down in space on pass plays out of the
backfield. He’s undersized but not small, but unlike CEH or Swift I just don’t
see him being an every down back and there is no shame in that.
Wide Receivers
Receiver is insanely
deep this year I have half dozen players rated in the starter role and 15 doesn’t
even get us out of the players that I think have a better chance than not to
contribute as a starter in the league.
Name | Team | Height, Weight | Targets | Adj. Yards Per Catch | Production Score | Role (Grade)
Jerry Jeudy |
Alabama | 6’1”, 192 lbs. | 108 | 12.56 | 10.44 | S (7.7)
CeeDee Lamb |
Oklahoma | 6’1 5/8”, 198 lbs. | 88 | 18.15 | 26.91 | S (7.7)
Jeudy and Lamb are my
top two and there’s not much to separate them even if they’re different receivers.
Jeudy is a technician running routes, just watch the first snap of the LSU game
and you know he’s special. He’s got good hands and was by far the most targeted
receiver on the Crimson Tide this year. Lamb was a standout for the Sooners the
last two seasons and his game is based a bit more on physicality and body
control. They’re both excellent options, I prefer Jeudy slightly but not enough
to separate them at the grade level.
Henry Ruggs III |
Alabama | 5’10 1/8”, 190 lbs. | 55 | 16.02 | 14.85 | S (7.3)
Ruggs is dangerously
explosive, great hands, raw but semi-refined and had his production hurt by
being on a roster with WR1 and at least one more player that will go round one
in the NFL draft.
Brandon Aiyuk |
Arizona State | 5’11 5/8”, 205 lbs. | 99 | 13.60 | 22.69 | S (7.1)
Micheal Pittman
Jr. | USC | 6’4”, 223 lbs. | 161 | 9.24 | 11.79 | S (7.1)
Tee Higgins |
Clemson | 6’3 5/8”, 216 lbs. | 87 | 16.30 | 23.89 | S (7.1)
Aiyuk is solid, productive,
and a good route runner. He’s my Gallup in this draft and may have a gap year
before truly breaking out. Pittman is a physical freak and was the most
consistent part of the USC passing game while being the focal points of the
defenses USC faced. Tee Higgins scares me. He’s got the size, he’s athletic
enough, and has a crazy catch radius and body control. He’s also the archetype
that gets me in trouble but I’m betting he’s Josh Doctson+ and not Josh Doctson.
Fingers crossed I’m not an idiot (Just in this case).
Denzel Mims |
Baylor | 6’2 7/8”, 207 lbs. | 113 | 11.08 | 21.09 | ES (6.9)
Bryan Edwards |
South Carolina | 6’3”, 215 lbs. | 107 | 8.71 | 15.70 | ES (6.8)
Justin Jefferson |
LSU | 6’1 1/4”, 202 lbs. | 134 | 14.09 | 31.80 | ES (6.7)
Jalen Reagor |
TCU | 5’10 5/8”, 206 lbs. | 88 | 8.04 | 11.92 | ES (6.7)
Mims is a great
athlete but raw as a receiver and I think he can get there but he needs work.
Edwards was less productive this year at South Carolina but he’s a well-rounded
player and was certainly hurt by QB uncertainty at South Carolina. Justin
Jefferson confuses me. His production at LSU was fantastic, he’s athletic (4.43
40, 37.5 Vert), but I kept wanting him to create more separation when I watched
him and I don’t know what to do with him. Reagor is my bet for the Deebo award.
Reagor is a burner and creates space on the inside. He’s going to be an asset
for a team but he’s a bit more situation dependent than others above him.
Laviska Shenault
Jr. | Colorado | 6’2”, 227 lbs. | 80 | 10.52 | 14.17 | ES (6.6)
Antonio Gibson |
Memphis | 6’0 3/8”, 228 lbs. | 58 | 15.33 | 14.99 | ES (6.5)
This is the do everything
tier. I’m putting Gibson in the WR. He only had 30 rushes last season and they
were all power. He needs some refinement at the next level, but I think he’s Tony
Pollard as a WR, has the skills to be both but better suited to WR to Pollard’s
RB. Shenault is the guy whom every college football fan will tell you to be
really excited about when your team drafts him. He’ll need to get smarter about
when and where he puts his body on the line but Shenault can do anything you
ask of him and more than your coach ultimately will.
Donovan
Peoples-Jones | Michigan | 6’15/8”, 212 lbs. | 57 | 9.72 | 9.33 |
ES (6.4)
Quintez Cephus |
Wisconsin | 6’0 7/8”, 202 lbs. | 91 | 11.39 | 17.46 | ES (6.4)
Tyler Johnson |
Minnesota | 6’2”, 200 lbs. | 119 | 13.18 | 26.44 | ES (6.4)
A trio of Big Ten players
to finish out the receivers. Peoples-Jones is all upside, and probably a little
too high but I love his talent. Cephus is the opposite producing well on a Badgers
team that didn’t throw all that much. Johnson is the middle ground he produced very
well at Minnesota but was a bit inconsistent and there were always rumblings
around him with the Gophers. We’ll have a good idea what the NFL thinks in a
couple of days, where his draft position will tell us a lot.
Tight Ends
Tight End is underwhelming
this year. After last seasons Iowa class this one is pedestrian but there are
some useful players.
Name | Team | Height,
Weight | Targets | Adj. Yards Per Catch | Production Score | Role (Grade)
Harrison Bryant |
FAU | 6’4 3/4”, 243 lbs. | 94 | 12.12 | 30.24 | ES (6.5)
Brycen Hopkins |
Purdue | 6’3 7/8”, 245 lbs. | 89 | 10.84 | 25.62 | ES (6.2)
Adam Trautman |
Dayton | 6’5”, 255 lbs. | 95 | 12.49 | 31.49 | ES (6.1)
Bryant was by far the
most consistent player to me. He isn’t the fastest, but he’s quick enough, he’s
a consistent catcher, and he produced at FAU. Hopkins was similar and played in
the Big Ten but he didn’t consistently show the ability to produce and find
space, but he moves very well and showed the positive traits you look for in a
modern tight end. Trautman looked hilarious against FCS competition at Dayton
as he looked like a slightly undersized giant among boys. I wasn’t wowed by his
athleticism at the level which is what kept him from challenging Bryant for me,
but he moved well enough in space and tested well in the agilities at the
combine making him worth the risk. Especially in this class.
Hunter Bryant |
Washington | 6’2 1/4”, 248 lbs. | 80 | 11.04 | 23.44 | PS (6.0)
Albert Okwuegbunam
| Missouri | 6’5 1/2”, 258 lbs. | 44 | 9.59 | 11.20 | PS (6.0)
Cole Kmet |
Notre Dame | 6’5 3/4”, 262 lbs. | 61 | 10.34 | 16.75 | PS (5.9)
Josiah Deguara |
Cincinnati | 6’2 3/8”, 242 lbs. | 71 | 9.00 | 16.97 | PS (5.8)
Let’s point to the
big difference here for me from a lot of others and potentially the NFL. I’m
low on Kmet. He wasn’t great blocking and he was the second-best receiving option
at TE for Notre Dame and he was more or less fine but he wasn’t what I hoped he
would be. Bryant is more of an H where he’ll play in space and off the line. I
didn’t love him blocking but I don’t necessarily need that from a player who
was targeted 80 times in 2019. Albert O has a ton of potential but he’s pretty
raw still and wasn’t utilized at Missouri the way he could have been. And Deguara
was fine and hard-nosed if unspectacular at Cincinnati.
Charlie Taumoepeau
| Portland State | 6’2 1/4”, 240 lbs. | 53 | 9.67 | 13.61 | PS
(5.6)
Giovanni Ricci |
Western Michigan | 6’3”, 220 lbs. | 92 | 8.66 | 21.15 | PS (5.5)
Devin Asiasi |
UCLA | 6’3”, 257 lbs. | 68 | 10.56 | 19.07 | PS (5.5)
These three are more
intriguing if nothing else in a class that loses my interest pretty quick. Taumoepeau
is a wild card, and raw as all hell and I don’t know why Portland State didn’t
use him more but when they did no one at the FCS level could handle him. Ricci
is really, really undersized but he produced at WMU in an offense that was a
mess, but he has solid body control, but he might just be a tweener who never
really finds a home at the next level. Asiasi stood out as a receiver, played
in the slot, and lined up in-line and was ok as a blocker but nothing special.
He’s fluid and was productive at UCLA and could surprise but needs refinement.
There we are Skill
Position players wrapped up. The only real weak class is TE, with QB and RB
being good up top and WR being really, really deep with good players with
potentially great upsides. All-in-all it makes this a really fun year for the
positions most people pay attention to whether because of fantasy football or because
they’re the ones that score touchdowns.
