Rambling's Week 1 CFB Picks

We're back for another season of college football and the second for me writing a blog through football season. I plan to use the same guidelines as last year, I will pick all top 25 games, except those against FCS schools, against the spread (ATS) and heads up winners. Without further ado let's kick off week one with some picks.

Thursday, August 30th, 2012:
#9 South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 6:00 pm ESPN: How often past decade has anyone been able to say that they were excited to see what a Vandy season will hold, maybe 3 times. I think this year could be another step forward for the 'Dores, even if the win total doesn't change all that much. South Carolina on the other hand is finally out of the Stephen Garcia era and moves forward with SEC East championship aspirations. I think this game is closer than most. Winner: South Carolina ATS: Vanderbilt +7 (should continue to move toward South Carolina)
Washington State at BYU, 9:15 pm ESPN3: The first game of the Mike Leach era is a late Thursday night kickoff but for insomniacs should be a barn burner. Leach has a history of taking under-talented teams farther than they should, year 1 may be bumpy but leach has some WR talent to work with. Bronco Mendenhall's Cougars may be the best team in Provo in a couple years however the loss of QB Jake Heaps is a step in the wrong direction but BYU should be the best Independent this year. Winner: BYU ATS: BYU -13

Friday, August 31st, 2012:
Tennessee vs North Carolina State, 6:30 pm ESPNU: Tennessee has been in a downhill spiral since the last few years of the Phil Fulmer era, however, this year may be the start of a turn around under Dooley in Knoxville. Improvement still may not render the results wanted by the Vol faithful. Bray is a big time prospect and a big time head case but should be the strong point of the team, the main question on offense is the wide reciever corps which is now without it's most talented athlete in Da'Rick Rogers who was cut from the team last week. NC State is a dark horse ACC contender that at worst will give teh top teams in it's conference fits this year with a high powered offense. This contest will certainly be a gateway into each teams season and help sort out the hierarchy of both conferences below the top tier teams. Winner: NC State ATS: NC State +3.5
#24 Boise State at #13 Michigan State, 7:00 pm ESPN: How effectively can John Southwick replace Kellen Moore? How can Boise replace their top 5 defensive linemen from a year ago? Will Southwick have enough skill position help? How well can Andrew Maxwell replace Kirk Cousins?... The answers, Idk, poorly, yes and I believe surprisingly well. Winner: Michigan State ATS: MSU -7
San Jose State at #21 Stanford, 9:00 pm Pac-12 Net: This was a rout last year and this year should be no different Stanford has a lot to replace on both sides of the ball but San Jose State doesn't have the talent to stay in this game past halftime. Winner: Stanford ATS: San Jose State +25.5

Saturday, September 1st, 2012:
Buffalo at #6 Georgia, 11:00 am ESPN3: Buffalo hails from the MAC conference, it is 1 of 13 teams in that conference and they aren't very good. Georgia is from the SEC, it is 1 of 14 teams in that conference and 1 of 5 with a chance to win the conference. Georgia should win this in a landslide. Winner: Georgia ATS: Georgia -38 (should probably just stay away from this)
Marshall at #11 West Virginia, 11:00 am: This rivalry game has seemed to be closer the last few years than it should have been with West Virginia's talent advantage. Year 2 of Holgerson's offense should see a marked improvement which should allow them to make some noise in the Big XII. Marshall on the other hand is in a place where they are playing on pride and hoping that pride can keep them in this game long enough. Winner: West Virginia ATS: Marshall +24.5
Miami (OH) at #18 Ohio State, 11:00 am BTN: Ohio State has a post-season ban and a new coach which means this game should give us a litmus test for the Buckeyes season compared to last year. Miami (OH) would love to knock off the big dog in the state, I'm just not sure they have the talent in the two deep to keep this close. Winner: Ohio State ATS: Ohio State -23
Ohio at Penn State, 11:00 am ESPN: I have no idea how this game was made a 6 point game to start off with. With all the turnover at Penn State,a new coaching regime and a couple handful of players leaving the program altogether PSU is set up for a struggle of a season. Ohio on the other hand brings back a veteran laden offense that was explosive a year ago and should be even better this season. Ohio should have a very good shot to knock down Penn State and start a season that could end with them being undefeated. Winner: Ohio ATS: Ohio +5.5
Southern Miss at #17 Nebraska, 2:30 ABC/ESPN2: Southern Miss is coming off one of the best seasons in recent memory that culminated in a C-USA championship game upset of Houston and a bowl win over Nevada. Nebraska was good not great in their first year in the Big Ten, where they didn't really challenge for the conference championship. Nebraska's season is dependent on the growth of QB Taylor Martinez and 3 former walk-ons on the offensive line. Winner: Nebraska ATS: Nebraska -19
Hawaii at #1 USC, 6:30 pm: USC should be in the thick of the national title hunt this season but there are some weaknesses with depth and youth on the defensive line. Hawaii is a great place to visit but they have to travel multiple time zones to play on the mainland which leaves them at a huge disadvantage. Winner: USC ATS: USC -42
#8 Michigan vs #2 Alabama, 7:00 pm ABC: This is the game of the week in college football, a week 1 game pairing top 10 preseason foes. Alabama will be what it has been throughout the Saban era strong and talented on defense and efficient on offense. The offense is the season key, it could be one of the most proficient and efficient in the country this year which should worry everyone in the country not just the SEC. Michigan on the other hand has a similar problem to USC, the defensive line is in a rebuilding stage and will most likely be susceptible to being mauled by the Alabama offensive line. On offense it all comes down to Dennard Robinson's ability to control turnovers and make big plays against a defense that is young but extremely talented. Winner: Alabama ATS: Michigan +14
Wyoming at #15 Texas, 7:00 pm LHN: Texas has been an enigma since their national championship appearance in 2009, and I don't believe warranted a top 15 ranking this year. There isn't much to talk about with Wyoming to start the season, there is what there is. Winner: Texas ATS: Texas -30
#4 Oklahoma at UTEP, 9:30 pm: See above about Wyoming, for UTEP. Oklahoma should challenge for a national championship but they must avoid the slips they have been prone to in the past. Winner: Oklahoma ATS: Oklahoma -30.5
Arkansas State at #5 Oregon, 9:30 pm ESPN: This game would be a dream match-up in week 8 because of the offensive match-up. That being said it wouldn't have been close even in week 8, however, both teams will be major players in their conference races. This should be one of the highest scoring games of the year. Winner: Oregon ATS: Arkansas State +36


Sunday, September 2nd, 2012:
Kentucky at #25 Louisville, 2:30 pm ESPN: The 2012 Battle of the Bluegrass on the football field should be an interesting showcase for Louisville. Charlie Strong is entering his third year as the Cardinals head coach and has a team he likes. Kentucky is the worst team in the SEC and has some very big flaws mainly at QB. I think Louisville runs away with this game. Winner: Louisville ATS: Louisville -13.5

Monday, September 3rd, 2012:
Georgia Tech at #16 Virginia Tech, 7:00 pm ESPN: This game will be huge in deciding the winner of the ACC Coastal, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are both among the top 4 or 5 teams in the conference and should showcase ACC football well opening weekend. Georgia Tech is pretty known on the offensive side of the football but has to replace wide out Stephen Hill to provide a deep threat. Virginia Tech is replacing two stud running back and their hopes rest on the back of Logan Thomas. Winner: Virginia Tech ATS: Georgia Tech +7.5

Well there you have it, enjoy the return of football and I'll be back Sunday to recap the week that was.

Bounty Gate

This is a speech I wrote for class tonight it is about bounty gate and why we should all care... just thought I'd share.

"Kill the head and the body will die. Kill the head and the body will die.

We've got to do everything in the world to make sure we kill Frank Gore's head. We want him running sideways. We want his head sideways." - Gregg Williams (Transcript, wwltv.com) These are just part of the chilling comments made by Gregg Williams before the Saints 2012 playoff game against the San Francisco 49ers. These comments bring to light a dark underbelly of the NFL game.

As football fans we cheer on teams and players with a rowdiness that only comes from fanatacism. We are often in awe of the physical specimens we root for on the field and through our televisions. However their comes a point where our fandom can no longer support the actions of these players there is a need for us to be a moral compass for those we cheer on and those we cheer with.

Why should you care?

First, we all seek the truth in our lives and as the Bounty-gate investigation has proceed from 2009-2011 these players have lied and covered up their indiscretions. The league has repeatedly given them the chance to be involved and aid the investigation but none have taken the opportunity. Instead they have blocked the investigation at every turn alongside their coaches and shown a lack of regard for the truth and the rules by which they have agreed.

The bounty program isn't just a moral issue, it also violates league rules and the tenets of fair play established through the legally binding collective bargaining agreement. By participating in the bounty system these players where violating their contracts and creating an unbalanced playing field. Bounties are a circumvention of the salary cap,  which limits the amount that teams can spend on players. This is a serous breach of the contract in place between the NFL and the Players Association.

The biggest reason this should interest you is that the bounties placed on players head could have serious long term ramifications for the players that we cheer for and hate. The biggest of these issues is the long term effects that head traumas can have on retired players and their brains. Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy or CTE has a very strong links to head traumas and manifests itself at a much higher level among football players. This disease leads to an excess of tau proteins in the brain and leads to a loss of brain cells in the mood generating and decision making cells of the brain. (Ziegler,Sports)  These complications have had tragic effects in the last few years through early onset dementia and increased rate of suicides. By targeting players with past concussion problems  and the head of player those involved in the bounties are putting their peers at a greatly increased risk of serious long term health problems.

You can make a difference here, and it starts with taking a stand and supporting the commissioner and the NFL. This means taking off the fan cap and not supporting or encouraging the appeals of the  players involved. By supporting the penalized you condone the circumvention of the rules, breaking of contracts and the outright injuring of players above and beyond the violence which is intrinsic to the game of football. By denouncing these appeals we can sway the perception of this scandal and make it clear that this type of targeted violence has no place in the sport of football.

If we don't curb this type of behavior in football, the consequences could be dire for a sport so many of us love. For starters this could cause an even greater up roar for major changes in the way the sport is played, many of which will hurt the value of the game. It could lead to an abolition of the game by the government based on increased health concerns at all levels of the game. Worst of all however, if this issue isn't addressed now and in a strict fashion we could see the unimaginable happen. An escalation of serious injuries and maybe even a players death on field during a game. No fan of football wants this to be the end game but an apathy towards this situation will lead us there.

There is hope, however, if we the fans of football band together and support the league and the commissioner now we can help to clean the sport up, to make it safer at all levels it is played at. We can remove the unecessary from the game and make it so that a mother no longer has to fear her son dying on the field.

So as we leave here today,

I urge you to use the abilities granted to us by social media to get the word out about the wrongs of bounty programs and to support the punishments handed down today. I look forward to a future where the apathy of fans towards these serious issues is no longer a concern.

I leave you with statement by Wiliams, ""I'd like to again apologize wholeheartedly to the NFL, Coach Fisher, the entire Rams organization and all football fans for my actions." (Spain, Gregg)

Works Cited

Spain, Kevin. "Gregg Williams Issues a Statement on the New Orleans Saints Bounty Scandal - New Orleans Saints Football NFL News - NOLA.com." NOLA.com. Nola.com, 21 Mar. 2012. Web. 02 May 2012. <http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2012/03/gregg_williams_issues_a_statem.html>.

"Transcript of Gregg Williams' Speech before 49ers Game." Wwltv.com. WWLTV, 04 Apr. 2012. Web. 02 May 2012. <http://www.wwltv.com/news/Transcript-of-Gregg-Williams-speech-before-49ers-game-146274295.html>.

Ziegler, Terry. "Sports Injuries, Medicine and Injury Treatment Videos." Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE). Sports MD, 01 Feb. 2012. Web. 02 May 2012. <http://www.sportsmd.com/Articles/id/44/cid/1/n/chronic_traumatic_encephalopathy.aspx>.

2012 NFL Draft Grades

This is an inexact science and is just how I see while coming away from the draft, it is important to remember the grade that really matters happens in three years when you can properly grade a draft.

AFC East
Buffalo Bills, Grade: B
Miami Dolphins, Grade: B
New York Jets, Grade: B-
New England Patriots, Grade: C

NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles, Grade: A-
Dallas Cowboys, Grade: B-
New York Giants, Grade: B+
Washington Redskins, Grade: C

AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals, Grade: A
Pittsburgh Steelers, Grade: A-
Baltimore Ravens, Grade B+
Cleveland Browns, Grade: C-

NFC North
Detroit Lions, Grade: A
Minnesota Vikings, Grade: B-
Chicago Bears, Grade: C+
Green Bay Packers, Grade: C+

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts, Grade: B-
Tennessee Titans, Grade: B-
Houston Texans, Grade: C
Jacksonville Jaguars, Grade: C-

NFC South
Carolina Panthers, Grade: A-
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Grade: B
Atlanta Falcons, Grade: C+
New Orleans Saints, Grade: D+

AFC West
San Diego Chargers, Grade: A-
Kansas City Chiefs, Grade: B-
Denver Broncos, Grade: C
Oakland Raiders, Grade: C

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals, Grade: B-
St. Louis Rams, Grade: C+
San Francisco 49ers, Grade: C-
Seattle Seahawks, Grade: F

Round 2 Review

Round 2

33 Rams: Brian Quick, WR, Grade: B

34 Colts: Coby Fleener, TE,  Grade: A-

35 Ravens: Courtney Upshaw, DE/LB,The rich get richer I thought Upshaw was a first round talent, not the quickest guy but he’s got a great motor and should contribute right away for the Ravens. Grade: A+

36 Broncos: Derek Wolfe, DT, interesting pick here, good player with great production, should be able to play multiple positions along the line and be able to show improvement next to some good young players a mile high. Grade: B

37 Browns: Mithcell Schwartz, OT, at least three better tackles left on the board especially for RTs in Glenn, Martin and Massie. I like the thought, but I’m just not sure I understand the player. Grade: C-

38 Jaguars: Andre Branch, DE, good pick here for the Jaguars a team that seems to be looking for pass rush every year. Branch should provide some of that if he can perform consistently. Grade: B-

39 Rams: Janoris Jenkins, CB, like this pick here. He has had some off the field issues and had to transfer out of Florida but he would have been a top 10 pick in this draft. Grade A-

40 Panthers: Amini Silatolu, OG, very good player will be making the adjustment down to guard at the next level but from all accounts a very physically stout player. Grade: B+

41 Bills: Cordy Glenn, OT, like this pick a lot this is great value at this point, Glenn has first round talent is SEC tested. Should be able to slot in at least at RT and could be solid at LT. Grade A+

42 Dolphins: Jonathan Martin, OT, the line in Miami just got real better and should be a very good tackle in the NFL for a decade. Grade: B

TRADE: NYJ to 43, SEA to 47, 4^th & 5^th, great hall for the Seahawks for this pick as they get more than some got late in the 1^st for their pick. Grades: NYJ C+, SEA A+

43 Jets: Stephen Hill, I like the pick more than the trade thought he could go late first, Jets hope he can develop like Thomas did in Denver. I like the pick but it isn’t without risk. Grade: B

44 Chiefs: Jeff Allen OT, good pass protector who might have to move inside in the pros good pick for the Chiefs who were looking for more of a guard choice instead of Massie. Grade: B-

TRADE: CHI to 45, STL to 50 & 150

45 Bears: Alshon Jeffrey, WR, a weight problem an inconsistent production in senior year but has ability to be an absolute beast for the Bears if he’s motivated. Grade: C+

46 Eagles: Mychal Kendricks, LB, instant upgrade in the middle of the field for the eagles defense and can really move on the field. Should be very versatile in Philly. Grade: A-

47 Seahawks: Bobby Wagner, LB, this is a much better pick for the Seahawks good solid player form Utah State, good motor needs some training but anything would have been an upgrade over the round 1 pick. Grade: C

48 Patriots: Tayvon Wilson, S, REACH didn’t see this coming there are a lot of good defensive backs on the board and the Pats went with a kid that I can’t say I ever noticed in all the Big Ten football I’ve watched. Grade: F

49 Chargers: Kendall Reyes, DT, a beast in the Big East last season and should provide a solid impact up front for the Chargers and can play all three DL positions. Grade: A-

50 Rams: Isaiah Pead, is an interesting prospect and should provide a nice player to spell Stephen Jackson some this season and maybe increase his longevity. Had a great Senior Bowl. Grade: B-

TRADE: GB to 51, PHI to 59 & 129, good move for both teams although once again in this round the rate of return has been pretty high to move up even a couple of spots. Grades: GB B, PHI A-

51 Packers: Jerel Worthy, DT, love this pick for the Packers. Provides needed depth along the defensive line alongside B.J. Raji and Pickett. Should provide immediate impact, maybe even more than Perry in round 1. Grade: A

52 Titans: Zach Brown, OLB, lots of talent here for the Titans but can he put it all together on the football field.  Grade: B-

53 Bengals: Devon Still, DT, another very good Big Ten defensive tackle comes off the board. Had a very good year at Penn State and should jump right into the defensive rotations in Cincy. Injury concerns but overall a solid pick. Grade: B-

54 Lions: Ryan Broyles, WR, was a huge contributor on the Oklahoma Sooners, who fell apart on offense after he went out. Very good player should have a shot to contribute in Detroit. Grade: B

55 Falcons: Peter Konz, OC, good player from Wisconsin had a late first early second grade on most boards should be a good player for Atlanta. Grade: A-

56 Steelers: Mike Adams, OT, fills a very good need for Pittsburgh and picks up a late first round talent. The Steelers have upgraded two spots on the line with their first two picks and it should pay off sooner rather than later. Grade: A

57 Broncos: Brock Osweiler, QB, much will be made of his height and “lack” of athletic ability but the kid has some upside and has the opportunity to sit for a couple of years before being thrown to the lions. Grade: C

58 Buccaneers: Lavonte David, LB, this is shaping up to be a very good draft for the Buccaneers. David is around the ball all the time, can drop in coverage and can play sideline to sideline. Grade: A+

59 Eagles: Vinny Curry, OLB, another good addition for the Eagles defense and should be able to provide some more versatility to the Eagles and play both with his hand in the ground and upright. Grade: A+

60 Ravens: Kelechi Osemele, OT, may have to move inside for the Ravens but a player who should help an interior line that is getting a bit weathered. Will be a transition period for him. Grade: B-

61 49ers: LaMichael James, RB, very good runner can do work in between the tackles which may surprise people at the next level. I think he could be a poor mans feature back and rich man’s Reggie Bush when he gets in the league. Grade: B+

62 Packers: Casey Hayward, CB, loved this round for the Packers and Heyward should add much needed value at the CB position with Woodsen getting older and maybe looking at a shift to safety the Packers needed to address their defensive backfield. Grade: B

63 Giants:  Rueben Randle, WR, like the pick provides some upside for a receiving corps who lost smith last year. Randle was a bit inconsistent but I’m not sure if that was a QB issue or a Randle issue overall I really like the pick. Grade: B-

Certain to be wrong Round 2 mock

The title says it all. This is my attempt to mock out the second round before it happens tonight and I have faith in only one thing I will be wrong and this mock will be obsolete in no more than 20 minutes once the round begins. That being said it was an interesting and frustrating exercise but all in all enlightening.

33. STL: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech
34. IND: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford
35. BAL: Peter Konz, OC, Wisconsin
36. DEN: Courtney Upshaw, LB, Alabama
37. CLE: Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia
38. JAX: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
39. STL: Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
40. CAR: Rueben Randle, WR, LSU
41. BUF: Bobby Massie, OT, Ole Miss
42. MIA: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
43. SEA: Janoris Jenkins, CB, South Alabama
44. KC: Josh Robinson, CB, Central Florida
45. STL: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
46. PHI: Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech
47. NYJ: Lavonte David, OLB, Nebraska
48. NE: Andre Branch, DE, Clemson
49. SD: Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse
50. CHI: Amini Silatulo, OG, Midwestern State
51. PHI: Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
52. TEN: Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina
53. CIN: Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
54. DET: Mychal Kendricks, LB, California
55. ATL: Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
56. PIT: Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut
57. DEN: Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
58. HOU: Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State
59. GB: Devon Still, DT, Penn State
60. BAL: Kelechi Osemele, OG, Iowa State
61. SF: Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson
62. NE: Alameda Ta'amu, DT, Washington
63. NYG: Trumaine Johnson, DB, Montana

Let me know what you think. Looking forward to another strong draft day.