Week four is here and I feel pretty confident about my picks this week. There were some big spreads and those are always a bit tricky but I think I got my finger back on the pulse of the game. Feel free to comment and enjoy Week 4...
Thursday, September 20th, 2012:
BYU at #24 Boise State, 8:00 pm ESPN, This game is tricky contest to predict, BYU looked to have
this year figured out and were playing some of their best ball in recent years.
Boise State is in a rebuilding mode having lost 16 starters from last years
team and a few more from the two deep, they showed promise on defense against
Michigan State but the offense looked lost as suspected post Kellen Moore. BYU
is the older team, but Boise has been great at home for most of recent memory. Winner: Boise State ATS: BYU +6.5 (Would love to get that
extra half point, but Vegas won't give that up easily.)
Baylor at ULM, 7:00 pm ESPN, ULM is coming of back to back giant
killing weeks, two weeks ago they beat Arkansas in Little Rock and last week
they took Auburn to overtime in Jordan-Hare, which should mean Baylor isn't
looking past them to West Virginia but that may be inevitable. Baylor comes
into this game continuing to replace RGIII's impact from the last couple of
years and should have a test in a ULM team that has some talent. I think ULM
has a chance to pull off a second upset in three weeks but the biggest factor
will be if Baylor is looking ahead to it's first conference game. Winner: Baylor ATS: ULM +7.5
Maryland at #8 West Virginia, 11:00 am FX, Maryland is somehow still above .500 three
weeks into the season and has shown some life under Randy Edsell, however they
haven't come up against a team like West Virginia which will put up points in
bunches and won't take it's foot off the pedal until the Holgo train is
satisfied. This one could be close early if West Virginia is looking ahead to
Baylor otherwise it shouldn't be close. Winner: West Virginia ATS: West Virginia -27
Kentucky at #14 Florida, 11:00 am SECN, No two teams in a conference could be coming into a game in
more different scenarios, Florida is coming off a very impressive win and
second half against Tennessee. Kentucky is coming off a new point for their
squad in a loss against Western Kentucky. If the Florida offense can keep up
it's dominance from the second half last week then this should be what we
thought the Bowling Green game was going to be for Florida. Winner: Florida ATS: Florida -24
UAB at #16 Ohio State, 11:00 am BTN, Ohio
State will roll in this game and if they don't we should all have real
concerns. Winner: Ohio
State ATS: Ohio State
-36
Virginia at #17 TCU, 11:00 am ESPN, Virginia has been disappointing so far in the early part of
the season and it seems to have taken a step back this season after last season
showed so much promise for the future. Gary Patterson's TCU team had an
unusually careless game last week and should be back to there normal selves
this weekend. I don't see how Virginia keeps up in this game. Winner: TCU ATS: TCU -17
Missouri at #7 South Carolina, 2:30 pm CBS, South Carolina is still dealing with the injury to
Connor Shaw but he is cleared to play in this game. Missouri has been dealing
with its own QB injury as James Franklin missed last week’s game against
Arizona State. Both backups have played well in relief but the loss of either
starter may be the tipping point in this matchup. I think South Carolina has
too many weapons and a slugfest of a game suits them well. Winner: South Carolina ATS: South Carolina -10
Oregon State at #19 UCLA, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, Yes, Oregon State beat Wisconsin and their
defensive front was very impressive but is there any firepower the Beavers
offense. UCLA has the offensive firepower to beat Oregon State and enough
defensive talent to make a few stops to win this game. Winner: UCLA ATS: UCLA -7.5
Eastern Michigan at #21 Michigan State, 2:30 pm BTN, Michigan State is coming off a butt whooping at the
hands of Notre Dame. This game should be a nice cure all of headaches on
offense for a week before Michigan State heads into Big Ten play. Winner: Michigan State ATS: MSU -33
Florida Atlantica at #1 Alabama, 4:00 pm ESPN3, This game won’t be close but Alabama will coast to
the victory from sometime in the 3rd quarter. Winner: Alabama ATS: Florida Atlantic +50
California at #13 USC, 5:00 pm Pac-12, I don't think this game fits the mold of the last couple Oregon games for Cal where they're pesky and stick around, I think we see an angry USC team put the hammer down against an inferior opponent on Saturday. Winner: USC ATS: USC
-16.5
#2 LSU at Auburn, 6:00 pm ESPN, I don’t know how this game is going to be
competitive or how Kyle Frazier is going to be able to put on his pants on
Sunday. LSU’s front four should eat Auburn’s offensive line alive and their offensive
line is going to open up holes all evening for the Tigers rushing attack. Winner: LSU ATS: LSU
-20.5
#20 Louisville at Florida International, 6:00 pm ESPN3, It looks like Charlie Strong finally has a contender
in the ‘Ville and should be in the mix for a BCS game this season. Florida
International has been a breakout team the last few years under Mario
Cristoball and should give Louisville some issues in this game, but as long as
Louisville shows up they should have this game in control heading into the
fourth quarter. Winner: Louisville ATS: Louisville -13.5
South Alabama at #23 Mississippi State, 6:00 pm ESPN3, Mississippi State clobbered Auburn, South Alabama just
jumped to the FBS level. Shouldn't be close. Winner: Mississippi
St. ATS: S. Ala +35
#18 Michigan at #11 Notre Dame, 6:30 pm NBC, Michigan ventures into the land of Touchdown Jesus
and I think they have a real chance to beat the Fighting Irish. Denard has
worked his magic the last few seasons against ND and that should be in the back
of their minds all night. I understand that ND has their best defense in recent
memory which should make this one close and interesting coming down to the wire
for the fourth straight year. Winner: Michigan ATS: Michigan +6
Vanderbilt at #5 Georgia, 6:45pm ESPN2, I was a big believer in the 'Dores this
season and that hasn't looked very good up to this point. A squeaker loss
against South Carolina that was decided by a pass interference started the
slide and a loss to Northwestern has lost the rest of the respect built up by
James Franklin and this team last season. Georgia is a very good team with
grown ass men on defense including Jarvis Jones who dominated the second half
of the Missouri game and helped the defense provide that boost we haven't seen
from Georgia in a few years. Winner: Georgia ATS: Vandy +16
#15 Kansas State at #6 Oklahoma, 6:50 pm FOX, This game is tricky for me, I really like what is
happening in Manhattan, KS but I don’t think the overall talent level is up to
snuff compared to what’s going on in Norman. Colin Klein is going to have a
monster game between the 20s but with the Sooner defenses back against the wall
is there going to be enough firepower through the air to put up the points to
match Landry Jones and Oklahoma’s offense? I say no and that’s why I see this
game going Boomer Sooners way. Winner: Oklahoma ATS: Kansas State +14
#10 Clemson at #4 Florida State, 7:00 pm ABC, This game is very similar to Kansas State-Oklahoma,
the line is tricky because there are a few different ways for these games to
go. In this one it comes down to the matchup of Clemson’s offense and Florida
State’s defense. Florida State has the athletes once again but Sammy Watkins
ran rough-shod all over the Seminoles defense. The ‘Noles front seven is better
this year and should be able to better check the Clemson offense. This one
comes down to the wire but I think we’re looking at a different Florida State
team this year. Winner: Florida State ATS: Clemson +14
#22 Arizona at #3 Oregon, 9:30 pm ESPN, I’ve heard a lot of talk about the challenges that
Arizona presents to Oregon. It is true that Arizona has an offense that can put
up points in bunches and that will keep them in this game for a quarter or two,
but what about the other side of the ball. This is a team with a defense that
doesn’ have much of a chance to slow down the Duck offense, especially DAT (not
that many have those type of athletes). I think we see a 3 touchdown win for
the Ducks. Winner: Oregon ATS: Arizona +23.5
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