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Saturday, May 31, 2014

2014 American Athletic Preview

The dregs of the former Big East and the "more" successful parts of Conference USA team up to bring you year two of the American Athletic Conference....

Subtractions/Additions

This year the conference loses the most stable athletic department it had retained (Louisville) and the one that is run by blind monkeys with typewriters (Rutgers). I might be a little harsh on Rutgers but the handling of their athletic department and the PR of such is well amateur at best lately. Louisville is a bigger loss, the reigning NCAA basketball champs and a solid program to boot. To counteract those losses the AAC brought in East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa. East Carolina is the best acquisition of the bunch but is a few years removed from a high water mark under Skip Holtz but reached similar heights last season according to Bill Connelly is certainly in a position to make some noise in there new conference. Tulsa and Tulane took two different paths to gain entry, Tulane had been abysmal for the better part of the last decade, where as Tulsa has been an above average FBS team for the better part of the last decade but took a severe turn for the worse. Will these two teams revert to what they have been over the last decade or will they continue to move in different directions.

Recent History

The recent history of the AAC is a muddled mess that covers two conferences, 8 champions or co-champions, and around a dozen additions/subtractions to the conference ranks. Last year was the first non-shared championship in the last three seasons was won by UCF. Behind Bortles and O'Leary UCF stunned Louisville at home and survived four too many scares to inferior teams. 2012 was the greatest clusterf@#k in recent history with four teams sharing the final Big East conference title. Louisville got the BCS nod, but shared the title Cincinnati, Rutgers and Syracuse in what was a wild finish and full of upsets and/or disappointments and poorly played games. 2011 was much the same but there was a three team tie atop the league standings, Louisville, Cincinnati & West Virginia. West Virginia got the nod that year but it's not a good sign when of the last eight champions or co-champions five of the eight are no longer in the conference and have moved on to lackluster performances in their new conferences.

Coaching Changes

The AAC was pretty stable this offseason with only one coaching change among the eleven teams and that was at UCONN. Paul Pasqualoni was fired four games into last season after going 10-18 in two and a half seasons at the helm of the Huskies. Paul is replaced by Bob Diaco who was given his first head coaching job after about five seasons of following Kelly from CMU to Cincinnati and finally to Notre Dame. Diaco won't have the talent to work with on either side of the ball that he saw and had at ND, but he's an intriguing hire and one to watch in East Hartford.

Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % yards), Returning Def (Starters, % yards) *coach records are career numbers

Cincinnati Bearcats (9-4, 7(N), 74.1%, 6, 63.2%) Cincinnati is the team that in recent years has been better than the national average but frustratingly inconsistent. 2013 was no different, they went 9-4 but with Louisville losing to UCF the Bearcats should have been ready to pounce, no pun intended, but they didn't they lost USF & SMU in conference and Illinois out of conference. Tubberville and co. bring back a large quantity of playmakers from last years squad but need to replace Brandon Kay who threw for nearly 3300 yards last season. if they can replace him and key players they are in the drivers seat in the conference but consistancy is the key to success in football and Cincinnati has been nothing if not inconsistent. Current Head Coach: Tommy Tubberville (139-81) Since 2013
Central Florida (UCF) Golden Knights (12-1, 6(N), 65.9%, 9, 84.1%) I want to say that the loss of Blake Bortles will ruin this team but UCF may be the class of the AAC now. Cincinnati has been more consistent UCF has been the best recruiting and has shown a higher ceiling to pair with the lower floor. Despite losing five starters on offense the squad isn't in bad shape. They lose Bortles and Storm Johnson but they have a trio of 3 stars lined up to replace Bortles and Johnson's replacement looks solid if not spectacular. The situation on defense is even better, they return all but three starters and only one top contributor from any unit on the defense. I originally was assuming this would be a regression year but there is enough coming back and enough history of success to think that this years team will challenge for the conference crown once again. Current Head Coach: George O'Leary (124-89) Since 2004
East Carolina (ECU) Pirates (10-3, 5(Y), 61.3%, 4, 49.4%) East Carolina was one of the best and most consistant teams in Conference USA for the better part of the last decade. Now with the move to the AAC they bring back some talent from a 10-3 team last season but have some work to do on the defensive side of the ball. The biggest plus on an offense bringing back five players is the return of starting QB Shane Carden and his 4100 yards. Carden is joined by his top two recievers and a some young up and coming skill players. On defense they return all but one of the top performers on the line their best linebacker but only one CB. The defensive backfield will be the key to the season but a fast start on offense and stellar line play on defense may be enough to buoy the Pirates until some young guys step up in the back four. Current Head Coach: Ruffin McNeil (30-22) Since 2010
Houston Cougars (8-5, 8(Y), 86.5%, 9, 84.5%) Tony Levine's year two was better than year one, improving from 5-7 to 8-5. To put it lightly the new staff has had to fill in for a couple consecutive great coaching hires but they look to be doing a nice job of acclimating themselves. And with a ton of talent coming back on both sides of the ball they could be looking at a year that adds their names to the list of great hires. With 17 returning starters including last seasons QB and all but two defensive starters the Cougars look poised to be a real contender for the AAC crown. Current Head Coach: Tony Levine (14-12) Since 2012
Southern Methodist University (SMU) Mustangs (5-7, 7(N), 44.3%, 7, 68%) SMU under June Jones has been the form of consistency, unfortunately that consistency is a slightly below average team at the FBS level. Last year saw a bit of a dip but not enough to really worry you. On offense they lose Garrett Gilbert who has taken his lumps through his career at both Texas and SMU but he was a rock for this offense last season and minimized mistakes. They also lose two one thousand yard receivers and return a running game that isn't very good. On defense they bring back a majority of a unit that did a lot of bending but didn't give up the big play. If they can take a step forward this unit will be the basis for a better team in 2014. Current Head Coach: June Jones (112-82) Since 2008
South Florida (USF) Bulls (2-10, 9(Y), 57.1%, 5, 48%) USF comes into the season coming off a horrible year one under Willie Taggert. Much of this can be attributed to the abyss that the previous staff left. So to borrow a term that Bill Connelly of SBNation puts in his previews, let's move past Taggert's year 0 and move on to year one where the change in culture and new talent can take hold. They bring back a sophomore QB, they brought in a 4 star running back and there are senior leaders on the line and receiving corps. On defense you have three former 4 stars on the line, an incoming four star in the LB corps and a bevy of three star defensive backs coming in in the secondary. This team may be young and volatile but year 2 for Taggert and company at least has upside and a lot of hope for the future. Current Head Coach: Willie Tagert (18-30) Since 2013
Tulane Green Wave (7-6, 7(Y), 53.5%, 6, 62%) Tulane was the surprise of Conference USA last season and one of the bigger surprises in the country at large. They lost a good amount from an offense that was all shades of meh last season which is one of those conundrums, where losing players may make way for better players or these guys were lousy last year but no one picking up the slack this season was good enough to displace them from the starting lineup. On defense this was a very impressive mid-major unit but it loses a good chunk. The good news is the line only losing one top contributor the back seven is a bit more hit by losses and young players stepping up will be key. I think Tulane regresses toward what they were before last season but I don't think they give up all that ground and that's promising for the Green Wave. Current Head Coach: Curtis Johnson (9-16) Since 2013
Memphis Tigers (3-9, 8(Y), 87.4%, 9, 76.2%) Improvement, for the first time in who knows how many years we see an upward trend from the Memphis football team. A team who one former coach on the way out said that they needed to soul search whether they wanted a football team or not. Fuente has been working uphill against a culture and a bereft roster that returns a lot of what made last season a marginal success. With 18 starters returning and the majority of the playmakers on both sides of the ball back it will be interesting and exciting to see if this team can work it's way back to bowl eligibility. Memphis has all the possibilities to be this seasons Tulane and make a jump to a bowl and fringe national consciousness. Or this is just a lot of returning parts of a turd, I hope and lean towards the optimistic viewpoint. Current Head Coach: Justin Fuente (7-17) Since 2012
Connecticut (UCONN) Huskies (3-9, 8(Y), 85.6%, 6, 55%) In Bob Diaco's first season in Storrs he brings back much of the offense from last season but has a rebuilding job on defense. That may be just fine for the former Notre Dame DC who comes into his first head coaching job. UCONN has been bad and actually regressed post Randy Edsall. This season is a year 0 season for Diaco and things won't look too bright at the end of the season, but patients is a virtue when turning around a college football team. Current Head Coach: Bob Diaco (0-0) New Hire
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (3-9, 7(Y), 26.6%, 9, 82.8%) Tulsa fell off the map in 2013 and it makes 2014 a poor time to be transitioning conferences. The good news is the offense finally fell apart and almost all major contributors are gone. Blankenship and his staff need to find playmakers soon so as not to waste the opportunity that stability on defense can provide. The drop off though looks like it may be too steep to recoup in one year and that is why I have Tulsa this low heading into 2014. It could come back to bight me but I just can't get the 2013 offense from out mine eyes. Current Head Coach: Bill Blankenship (22-17) Since 2011
Temple Owls (2-10, 6(Y), 62.5%, 7, 74%) Much like the lower tier of the Sun Belt the Temple Owls are a bad team with a bunch returning. The only real interesting part about the upcoming season is that we are entering year two for Matt Rhule, which means we could see a bit of a jump or a continuation of the rebuilding process that is going to take all of the four year cycle to return to competence. Current Head Coach: Matt Rhule (2-10) Since 2013

2014 Predicted Standings

1) Cincinnati 2) UCF 3) ECU 4) Houston 5) SMU 6) USF 7) Memphis 8) Tulane 9) Tulsa 10) UCONN 11) Temple

From FBS to Group of Five the AAC has fallen into the ranks of the mid-majors and the population of the conference reflects this change. Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Rutgers are all gone but there are some intriguing teams heading into 2014 and most of those are new arrivals which should keep some attention in the AAC's direction. Overall it's a solid if unspectacular group and the old stalwarts should rule the day especially early in the season.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Brock's World Cup 2014 Preview: for people who don't know soccer good and stuff.

Group A: The Group where the Host team is and such.
Brazil - Home to one of the sexiest populations on the globe and a rich soccer tradition.
Croatia - Central European country, doesn't sound very inviting and apparently home to some beautiful beaches on the Adriatic Sea.
Mexico - Dos a cero.
Cameroon - The nickname for the teams is the Indomitable Lions and that is just great.

Brazil and Cameroon make it out of the group stage because, we all want to see pretty women celebrate and, well, The Indomitable Lions.

Group B: I've heard of all these countries and at least two are good at "Football".
Spain - First team to win three consecutive world titles, horrible economy and at best the third most prominent European country of the 1800s.
Netherlands - Flooded itself in World War I to keep Germany from flaking the allies, really good at speed skating.
Chile - Benefits from being right next to Brazil and every other S. American country, mountain people and a delicious soup.
Australia - This isn't rugby or cricket, I think we're done here.

Spain and Chile make it out, with the Netherlands screaming, "Chile ain't played and SEC schedule pawwwl." and Spain has dominated the world stage recently.

Group C: Everyone has got a freaky private life.
Columbia - Drug cartels, heroine and cocaine, Columbia throws one hell of a party but there are always dead hookers afterwards.
Greece - The broke one of the group but Greece is always up for and orgy on the beach and that's good on you Greece. Gotta do you.
Ivory Coast - The schizophrenic of the group the Ivory Coast three over throws of the government since 1999.
Japan - I mean, hentiam man and they are proud of it so it's cool.

Dead hookers and hentia, Japan and Columbia out of the group stage.

Group D: Masters and underlings
Uruguay - Subservient to Brazil to 1828, Uruguay will have something to prove to the old masters this time around,
Costa Rica - Hasn't had an army since 1949, one has to wonder if it is too flippant about defense.
England - The old mother country England was once the ruler of a vast empire... it still has the queen to prove it.
Italy - Mussolini who was the worlds first bobble head.

England and Uruguay advance from group D because both sides can say no one believes in us and I think that may or may not be true.

Group E: Europe v. South America: The Reckoning
Switzerland - The world oldest and most professional meat peepers. Looking at the worlds pay stubs since 1300.
Ecuador - Ecuador is on the equator and use to suck at football. So the Vanderbilt of South America.
France - Britain's most hated cousin, savior of the revolution and but of all 21st century military jokes.
Honduras - France is next to Spain and Honduras was a Spanish colony and somehow this will help motivate Honduras. 

The crazy upstart Ecuador and the old mainstay France move on to the round of 16.

Group F: I don't think anything but soccer could bring these four countries together.
Argentina - Another former Spanish colony that has risen to soccer prominence, I think these countries should just their all powerful overlords and fathers.
Bosnia and Herzegovina - Franz Ferdinand was shot in their capital.
Iran - We hate them because they never thanked us for deposing their popular religious zealot of a leader. You're welcome Iran.
Nigeria - Former British colony, really took off after Britain started actively trying to stop slavery... go figure.

Argentina is a no-brainer and then... Nigeria come on down.

Group G: The group of death: or how I learned to start fearing and love the corruption of International Soccer
Germany - Machine like precision and the pursuit of perfection are the mark of a true German.
Portugal - Gotta sting to go back to a former colony and know that you should have never left I mean look at that ass.
Ghana - The thorn in American soccer's World Cup side. F@#k you Ghana.
United States - USA! USA! USA!

United States because manifest destiny and Germany because they gave us Schadenfreude.

Group H: Last but probably not, well maybe not altogether forgotten.
Belgium - Belgium the country German went through twice to attack France because it worked so well the first time.
Algeria - Sounds too much like Algebra to interest Americans.
Russia - Putin's pals play pretty Putinball.
Korea Republic - These are the non-crazy ones.

Belgium and Korea advance because Belgium knows a pain you never will and Korea is alright I guess for a country we never stopped technically fighting a war in.

Group A: Brazil & Cameroon
Group B: Spain & Chile
Group C: Columbia & Japan
Group D: Uruguay & England
Group E: France & Ecuador
Group F: Argentina & Nigeria
Group G: Germany & United States
Group H: Belgium & Korea

Round of 16
Brazil (Winner of A) vs Chile (2nd in B) - Match 49 - Brazil and Chile meet for a S. American showdown of epic proportions in what should be a heated and exciting match. 
Columbia (Winner of C) vs England (2nd in D) - Match 50 - England isn't expected to do much but this team surprises by making it to the round of 16 but the road ends here in the way so many English experiences do in the rain. Leaving the door open for Columbia.
Spain (Winner of B) vs Cameroon (2nd in A) - Match 51 - Spain is really good and although I will root hardily for the Indomitable Lions until the end.
Uruguay (Winner of D) vs Japan (2nd in C) - Match 52 - Japan came out of a weak and open group but meet a powerhouse in Uruguay and fall just short of a quarterfinal appearance.
France (Winner of E) vs Nigeria (2nd in F) - Match 53 - France wins one to take down the British empire because they've never forgotten what happened.
Germany (Winner of G) vs Korea Republic (2nd in H) - Match 54 - Korea succumbs to the same fate as Asian counterpart Japan and run into a more talented international squad than in the group stage when they meet with powerhouse Germany.
Argentina (Winner of F) vs Ecuador (2nd in E) - Match 55 - Another South American on South American blood match but this one finds the sudden upstart Ecuador at the mercy of the much more talented Argentina side. 
Belgium (Winner of H) vs United States (2nd in G) - Match 56 - USA! USA! USA! I'm going homer in the round of 16 because I can and this is one of the most talented US Squad. Belgium is a good side and could very well move on here too but... 

Quarterfinals
Brazil (Winner Match 49) vs Columbia (Winner Match 50) - Match 57 - Brazil continues it march on home soil against overmatched Columbia. 
Spain (Winner Match 51) vs Uruguay (Winner Match 52) - Match 58 - Spain's run of internatial soccer comes from the home continent at the hands of the surprising Uruguay side.
France (Winner Match 53) vs Germany (Winner Match 54) - Match 59 - Germany defeats France, once again, with master strokes and the world laughs in Schandenfreude. 
Argentina (Winner Match 55) vs United States (Winner Match 56) - Match 60 - The US made a good run at it but the talent on the Argentina squad is just too great. 

Semifinals
Brazil (Winner Match 57) vs Uruguay (Winner Match 58) - Match 61 - The host country loses starting riots all over Brazil and sends Uruguay to the final with a chance at a third World Cup.
Germany (Winner Match 59) vs Argentina (Winner Match 60) - Match 62 - An all South American World cup as Argentina defeats Germany with a chance at it's third World Cup.

Third Place Match
Brazi (Loser Match 61) vs Germany (Loser Match 62) - Disappointment for two very good international sides but a hell of a consellation game for those of us watching. Winner: Brazil

Final
Uruguay (Winner Match 61) vs Argentina (Winner Match 62) - One squad will win it's third World Cup the other will leave to their side of the continent with a bitter taste in there mouth. A continental grudge match leaves Messi and Argentina hoisting the Cup.

Monday, May 19, 2014

2014 NFL Preview: A Preamble

I have the time, the wherewithal and the want to put forth an NFL preview this off season. The plan is to take a look forward by conference of the upcoming campaign and an overarching view of the upcoming season. I'm not sure if I want to do a fantasy portion this season, although the topic is one in which I enjoy both the thought about and enjoyment it is quite the undertaking. So without further ado let us take a journey into the season past and reminisce a bit.

The current state of the NFL strategically, a fascinating microcosm of old school stalwarts, new school ideas, appropriations of by gone strategies and a reconfiguring of decision making that leave many hesitant to accepting the changes that have come about by a new influx of ideas from the college ranks and from statistical analysis. The old stalwarts continue to be argued for by those who learned, played and watched the game for the last 30 years. The foundations of this school of thought are a running game as the starting place for an offense. Defenses that reduce risk and bend but don't break and tactics that are based on gut instincts and conventional wisdom built over many decades. The new school ideas, a passing game that drives the offense, blitzing multiple defenses that take risks and increase the chance of big plays in both directions and more liberal chances taken on third down and when in field goal range. We are also in an era where starting at the more diverse college level we are seeing Wing-T constructs and a rediscovery of the merits of option based offenses leaking more and more into offensive play-calling. We have seen greater research into the risk-reward of play-calling both in the balance between the run and the pass and in aggressiveness on fourth downs both between punting and going for it and the benefits of a touchdown versus a field goal. All of these transformations and competing ideas make this a very exciting time to be an NFL fan and football enthusiast.

Well thanks for enduring my rambling, I look forward to taking a deeper dive into the NFL this preseason and hope to start conference previews soon to offset all of the college football previews I am hoping to get out before the football season begins.

Sunday, May 18, 2014

2014 MAC Preview

Two previews down, eight to go. We've already looked at the Sun Belt and Conference USA, with that we move to the next tier of conferences and the bottom conference... the Mid American Conference (MAC). I know many of you don't think much about the lower tier of conferences and that very much includes the MAC but much like the Sun Belt (Sun Beast) in the earlier part of the 2000s the MAC (#MACtion) has gained steams as a grass route culture with fun and entertaining weeknight football. This has been helped by BCS busters like NIU and strong competition at the top of the league.


Subtractions/Additions

The Mid-American Conference hasn't seen a change to the members of the conference in a couple years. This streak will falter next season with the departure of UMASS but that is for this then this is about now.


Recent History

NIU has been the class of the MAC for the last three seasons through coaching turnover and mostly behind the incredible play by the now departed Jordan Lynch. Last years title game, however, flipped the script with an underrated Bowling Green team upsetting the presumably BCS bound Huskies in the MAC championship game. One has to wonder if we watched a passing of the torch and a new king of MACtion take the stage.


Coaching Changes

The "cradle of coaches" has been pillaged in recent years by the big boys as many successful MAC coaches were hired away to Big 5 jobs. This season however only saw one coach leave to take a bigger job. Dave Clawson after leading Bowling Green to a conference title left the small school in Ohio to take on the tough and harrowing job at Wake Forest. Clawson went 18-8 overall and 13-3  in conference play the last two season after turning around struggling program. Clawson is replaced by Dino Barbers the Eastern Illinois coach who had success with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm won the conference in his two season at EIU and made the FCS playoffs twice before departing for Bowling Green. Done with the success stories the other departures were coaches of teams that made up the dregs of the MAC. Ron English's run at Eastern Michigan came to an inglorious end after a 7-30 run in conference that saw EMU finish last in the West division every year but one. English is replaced at EMU by Crish Creighton the head coach from Drake who lead that squad to two conference titles and moderate success at the FCS level. Creighton inherits some talent from English but this is still a major project for the next couple of season. From one bottom dweller to another we head to Miami (OH) who fired Don Treadwell after an 0-5 start and a 8-16 record before that. Treadwell is replaced by Chuck Martin the Notre Dame offensive coordinator who had a surprising amount of success last season despite Tommy Rees as the QB and a lack of explosive playmakers on offense. Martin has his work cut out for him though at a school that needs a lot of breaks to get back to contention. Lastly is the change at the helm of the soon departing UMASS Minutemen. Charley Molnar was fired after a pair of 1 win seasons at the new to FBS level UMASS. Molnar is replaced by Mark Whipple who didn't coach last season, who led UMASS to an FCS title in 1998 and has bounced around the college and NFL ranks since. The hope if for Whipple to return at least a sense of the old success to a program that doesn't have any room to really get worse. With the coaching changes out of the way lets get to our breakdown of the league and the teams.


Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % yards), Returning Def (Starters, % tackles) *coach records are career numbers

Toledo Rockets: (West, 7-5, 7 (N), 55.6%, 9, 80%) Toledo finished 2013 behind NIU and Ball State in the West division. Both sides of the ball bring back a considerable amount of talent from last season and what really brought it home for me was the returning talent on the Rockets. With 9 returning starters and 80% of the tackles returning Matt Campbell's third season in Toledo should be a big leap forward from last season. Current Head Coach: Matt Campbell (17-9) Since: 2012
Bowling Green Falcons(East, 10-4, 7 (Y), 73.9%, 6, 60.3%) Bowling Green was last seasons conference champions upsetting NIU and Jordan Lynch in Detroit to take home the conference crown. This years team will rely on a talented and experienced offense to start the season strong as the defense replaces the center of the line and much of the secondary. Dino Barbers and staff come into a good situation with a talented roster and offense. Current Head Coach: Dino Barbers (19-7) Since: New Hire
Ball State Cardinals(West, 10-3, 6 (N), 52.8%, 6, 73.2%) Ball State finished ahead of Toledo last season but lost a good amount from last season. Ten starters to replace on the 22 man depth chart and no quarterback returning on offense means a slow start is to be expected. The defense has similar losses but brings back a couple major contributors which should help to soften the blow. Current Head Coach: Pete Lembo (104-49) Since: 2011
Ohio Bobcats(East, 7-6, 3 (N), 30.6%, 8, 73.5%) Frank Solich followed up a disappointing 2012 in which they were a dark horse BCS buster with a solid if not spectacular 2013. Solich is faced with a difficult task in 2014 the offense lost just about every major contributor and must repopulate the two deep. The defense has talent and is going to have to be rock on which this team is built especially early in the season when the team is assimilating a new quarterback and most of his key contributors. Current Head Coach: Frank Solich (124-69) Since: 2005
Northern Illinois Huskies(West, 12-2, 9 (N), 66.8%, 6, 56.6%) This comes down to how effectively the Huskies replace Jordan Lynch. Lynch was the, pardon the pun, linchpin of the NIU offense and quite possibly the stabilizing force that kept the Huskies from stumbling through three straight coaching changes. Rod Carey is back this season for his second year at the helm in DeKalb but he needs to find a way to replace such a talent and not lose to much of what has been successful for NIU in recent memory. Current Head Coach: Rod Carey (12-3) Since: 2013
Buffalo Bulls(East, 8-5, 6 (Y), 30%, 4, 55.5%) Buffalo loses a lot from last years team and the biggest hit of all may be the loss of Kahlil Mack from the defense. It is tough to overestimate the loss of an NFL level player on a lower tier team. Now combine the loss of Mack with the loss of 70% of the offensive production and you have a recipe of regression in 2014. Current Head Coach: Jeff Quinn (18-33) Since: 2010
Kent State Golden Flash(East, 4-8, 7 (Y), 66.9%, 7, 59.9%) 2013 was a disappointment in year one for Paul Haynes. Akron's 2012 vaulted into an above average team nationally but 2013 saw them return to a level similar of the last decade. This year brings a new set of challenges for Haynes, with the loss of all-purpose monster Dri Archer and four of their five top defensive linemen there are holes to fill on just about every level of the team. There is returning talent, however and a return to .500 is a realistic upside in year 2. Current Head Coach: Paul Haynes (4-8) Since: 2013
Akron Zips(East, 5-7, 8 (Y), 91.6%, 5, 65.1%) Akron is coming off a year in which the defense got better, the offense got worse and the team stayed at about the same level overall. The offense brings back most of the important parts, an intriguing running back (Jawon Chisholm), last years best receiver (Zach D'Ordazio) and the entirety of last years linebacking corps. Bowden seems to have something brewing but the defense needs to replace the lost parts but has enough returning talent to at least be competent on a MAC level. Current Head Coach: Terry Bowden (146-80-2) Since: 2012
Central Michigan Chippewas
: (West, 6-6, 11 (Y), 83.9%, 8, 72.3%) Year five for Don Enos looks like a pivotal one, he has taken CMU from 3-9 to 3-9 to 7-6 to 6-6. If he can keep the success in the .500 region he should earn enough to make it to year six in Mt. Pleasant. For his sake this team looks like it should be able to build off the last two with the entire starting offense returning, with only a couple skill players having left, and three quarters of the defense which wasn't good but should advance some with another year to grow together. All in all I think this team has a good shot of being above .500 but sits a distant third in the west division. Current Head Coach: Don Enos (19-30) Since: 2010
UMASS Minutemen(East, 1-11, 7 (Y), 74.8%, 5, 63.4%) Whipple was the last successful coach at UMASS, granted they were still an FCS team them and Whipple hasn't had a head coaching job since then, but this is about everyone trying to recreate past successes. We'll leave it there as UMASS hasn't had much success since their move to the FBS. Current Head Coach: Mark Whipple (121-59) Since: New Hire
Miami (OH) Red Hawks(East, 0-12, 8 (N), 84%, 7, 73.8%) Maybe it's unfair to put a team that didn't win last season above EMU & WMU but unlike both of those teams this bad team brings back a majority of their defense. Martin had a top 35 offense in F+ last season with Tommy Rees behind center and no playmakers to speak for, if he can take some experience on offense and have an offense that is outside of the bottom quarter the Redhawks could steal a couple games this season. Current Head Coach: Chuck Martin (74-7) Since: New Hire
Eastern Michigan Eagles(West, 2-10, 9 (Y), 91.5%, 6, 65.7%) Creighton takes over a team that has gone 29-99 since the turn of the century. Creighton brings a good amount of success with him from the lower ranks but he's going to need a lot of luck, patience and skill to turn this program in the right direction. Like many other bad teams we have already talked about Eastern Michigan brings back a good amount of talent from last season, especially on offense, but is low level talent with experience a blessing or just an undertalented roster with experience. Current Head Coach: Craig Creighton (139-46) Since: New Hire
Western Michigan Broncos(West, 1-11, 8 (Y), 49.6%, 4, 52.4%) P.J. Fleck's first season in Kalamazoo did not go well, but it was not expected to. Fleck inherited a team that lacked talent and a track record of success. The offense returns a QB and much of the roster but any playmakers are pretty much gone. This is a long trudge up hill, let's watch and see if progress can be made in year two. Current Head Coach: P.J. Fleck (1-11) Since: 2013


2014 Predicted Standings

East: 1) Bowling Green 2) Ohio 3) Kent State 4) Buffalo 5) Akron 6) UMASS 7) Miami (OH)
West: 1) Toledo 2)Ball State 3) Central Michigan 4) Northern Illinois 5) Eastern Michigan 6) Western Michigan

Sunday, May 11, 2014

2014 NFL Draft Grades

Draft grades are foolish but a nice way to quantify how I think about the draft and what each team did. That's right this isn't the end all be all of how this draft will turn out it's just my thoughts on how the teams did in their approach to the draft.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills - Ave. Grade: C Weigh. Grade: B- My Grade: C+ - Like what they did late and love Watkins talent but only picked up one starter from day one.
Miami DolphinsAve. Grade: B Weigh. Grade: C+ My Grade: C+ - Reach early, love picks two and three are a contributor and a starter next year in my opinion.
New England PatriotsAve. Grade: C+ Weigh. Grade: F+ My Grade: D+ - Easley's an other world athlete but there is nothing in this draft to help next season and Brady isn't getting younger.
New York JetsAve. Grade: D Weigh. Grade: B- My Grade: C+ - I like Pryor and Amaro early, and Dozier in the middle but the rest are gonna take some work.

AFC North

Baltimore RavensAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: B- - Big time upside up top, both Mosley and Jernigan should slot in early and I personally love the Urschel story.
Cincinnati BengalsAve. Grade: C+ Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C - I like Dennard and want him to succeed but I have my doubts, Hill is the only other really impact player I see here.
Cleveland BrownsAve. Grade: C+ Weigh. Grade: My Grade: B+ - First three picks factor in big time this season and Desir could be a steal long term.
Pittsburgh SteelersAve. Grade: B Weigh. Grade: My Grade: B - 2 starters, 1 d-line rotation, 1 special teams ace and some upside players at the bottom.

AFC South

Houston TexansAve. Grade: B Weigh. Grade: My Grade: B - Clowney is a beast, Su'a-Filo was the best guard in the draft, Nix adds to an already scary d-line and I don't think Savage is on the team in three years.
Indianapolis ColtsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C- - Meh. I don't have anything else to say.
Jacksonville JaguarsAve. Grade: B Weigh. Grade: My Grade: B+ - I've come around on the Bortles pick, Lee and Robinson was a great haul in the second and Telvin Smith was one of the steals of the draft in the 5th.
Tennessee TitansAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: C+ My Grade: C - Lewan fills no needs, Sankey has great upside and the opportunity to produce year one.

AFC West

Denver BroncosAve. Grade: C+ Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C - Roby slots in nicely, Latimer could replace Decker as the year progresses.
Kansas City ChiefsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: D+ - I didn't understand Kansas City's draft, Ford doesn't translate to a 3-4 the way I'd like, Thomas is intriguing but with major downside. Gaines should be a welcome addition even if just in the Nickle year one.
Oakland RaidersAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C+ - Mack is special, Carr is meh but McGill has intrigue.
San Diego ChargersAve. Grade: B Weigh. Grade: C+ My Grade: C - Verrett and Attaochu should start in year one and Grice was highly productive last year... not a great cashe of picks.

NFC East

Dallas CowboysAve. Grade: C+ Weigh. Grade: F- My Grade: B - I like the Martin pick, Lawrence has a good chance to become a disruptive force on the edge and Dixon has a chance to make himself a starter.
New York GiantsAve. Grade: B Weigh. Grade: B+ My Grade: B- - Top two picks start year one and Williams should spell the lead running back.
Philadelphia EaglesAve. Grade: C+ Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C- - Matthews and Huff add depth to a shallow position and Smith was a reach but is an imposing presence.
Washington RedskinsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C- - Murphy was unnecessary depth that early, Moses was a wonderful value in the third and Breeland and Seastrunk have future star potential.

NFC North

Chicago BearsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: C+ My Grade: B+ - Fuller should be very good for years, Ferguson needs work but Sutton may produce early if he gets his weight in line and Carey should help spell Forte.
Detroit LionsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C+ - I hated Ebron in round one, love Van Noy and Swanson think they contribute year one and Reid is a great flyer in round 5.
Green Bay PackersAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: B- - Clinton-Dix and Adams contribute year one, Bradford and Abbredaris should push those in front of them.
Minnesota VikingsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C - Barr is raw, Bridgewater should be better than Cassel pretty quickly, Chrichton was great value in the third and Yanky & Exum could be major contributors in a couple of years.

NFC South

Atlanta FalconsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: B- My Grade: C+ - Matthews will slot in day one and improve the offensive line, Hageman and Southward have potential but a long way to go.
Carolina PanthersAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: B- - Benjamin is high upside low low downside, Ealy and Turner were absolute steals and have good chances to be major contributors.
New Orleans SaintsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: B- My Grade: B- - Cooks could be special with Brees, Jean-Baptiste has really high upside potential and if health Sunseri will be a beast.
Tampa Bay BuccaneersAve. Grade: C+ Weigh. Grade: C+ My Grade: C - All offensive help, love Evans, intrigued by Herron, but Seferian-Jenkins is a lot of meh for me.

NFC West

Arizona CardinalsAve. Grade: C Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C- - Nobody really excites me here, the best pick may have been Stinson in the fifth.
San Francisco 49ersAve. Grade: C+ Weigh. Grade: My Grade: B+ - I can see possible starters and contributors from the first six picks, Borland and Ellington being my favorites.
St. Louis RamsAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: C+ My Grade: B - Best defensive lineman in the class, top 2 offensive tackle, Mason has a chance to be special.
Seattle SeahawksAve. Grade: B- Weigh. Grade: My Grade: C+ - Richardson is a mjor risk at 45, Britt was a reach but they didn't have a pick for 40 picks, love Norwood and Pierre-Louis late.

2014 NFL Draft 4th-7th round notes

4th Round

106) San Francisco 49ers - Bruce Ellington, WR, South Carolina: I love this pick, everything that people think Stevie Johnson can bring the 49ers Ellington actually brings. I don't see another player on the roster that fulfills the speedy slot guy. Ellington is slight and that leads to concerns about his ability to stay healthy but he was productive at South Carolina and brings a new element on the inside of Crabtree and Boldin.
116) Oakland Raiders -  Keith McGill, CB, Utah: McGill could have gone two rounds higher but slips to the Raiders who should use him as a press corner on a defense that needs to gel quickly.
117) Chicago Bears - Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Arizoan: Carey was extremely productive at Arizona and was the most consistant producer at the running back position all year. Carey doesn't have the elite speed upside or the quick twitch athleticism but he should be a productive compliment year one to Matt Forte.
118) Pittsburgh Steelers - Martavis Bryant, WR, Clemson: Bryant is raw and could have probably used another year at Clemson but he still has big play ability and stretches the field from the outside. He should be able to fill that stretch role that Wallace burst onto the scene in and gives Big Ben that deep threat he's been looking for to compliment everything that Antonio Brown does.
120) Arizona Cardinals - Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech: I put this one in here because Thomas hasn't grown as a passer in two seasons. He has all the physical tools and a 4th round flyer is fine but he doesn't possess the ability to throw with any accuracy.
123) Seattle Seahawks - Kevin Norwood, WR, Alabama: Love this pick by the defending champs. Norwood brings a solid route runner, do it all reciever that should be a solid 3rd or 4th option.
124) Kansas City ChiefsDe'Anthony Thomas, RB, Oregon: Thomas was dynamic two years ago but got bottled up too much last season at Oregon. He should be able to fill the role vacated by Dexter McCluster and if put out in space he's explosive enough to be a home run threat with ever touch.
127) Cleveland Browns - Pierre Desir, CB, Lindenwood: Desir was one of my favorite small school talents and Cleveland picked up a hell of gem . Desir didn't hit the speed benchmarks but shows the ability to play tough defense against big recievers.
135) Houston Texans - Tom Savage, QB, Pittsburgh: Bill O'Brien got his big QB in the draft and props for it not beign Mallett but Savage is incredibly inaccurate and a stiff in the pocket. I trust O'Brien with the quarterback situation with what he did at Penn State but I don't see Savage panning out for Houston.

5th Round

144) Jacksonville Jaguars - Telvin Smith, LB, Florida State: Smith fell way too far and the Jaguars got a hell of a football player. A bit of a tweener smith will more than likely bulk up about 15-20 and play linebacker in Jacksonville. Smith was all over the field last year for Florida State and has a nose for the ball that should suit him well at the next level.
145) Minnesota Vikings - David Yankey, OG, Stanford: Yankey was thought by some to be a 2nd rounder and I thought he could at least be a contributor for someone in the 3rd round but a fall to the 5th lands him in the laps of the Vikings who get a solid tactician and a big body to help protect Teddy.
153) Buffalo Bills - Cyril Richardson, OT, Baylor: Richardson was an all-american guard at  Baylor. and helped to spur an ungodly offensive weapon. Richardson is a big boy at 6'5" 340 and needs to work on bending more at the knees and not getting so high in the blocking game.
158) Detroit Lions - Caraun Reid, DT, Princeton: Reid is an intriguing prospect out of Princeton, when watching some of his games you see a lot to like on the inside quick hands, multiple moves. The problems come in consistency and his tendency to stand up out of his stance and lose leverage on the offensive lineman.
175) Baltimore Ravens - John Urschel, OG, Penn State: This is my favorite pick of the draft, for almost zero football reasons. Urschel has a masters and is working on a second one, he teaches a high school class calculus during the season and has mulitple papers published. This kid is going to succeed at life much better than most of us and he happens to be alright at football as well. If you want to know more read this Andy Staples piece.
176) Green Bay Packers - Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin: I really enjoy watching Abbrederis as a players, but concussion concers haunted him through his time at Wisconsin and into the draft. The value here is good and Abbrederis should fight for a rsoter spot come August.

6th Round

178) Tennessee Titans - Zach Mettenberger, QB, LSU: Mettenberger had a dilluted sample at the Combine which is a bit of a red flag but the bigger things are in the game. He showed flashes the last two seasons of being an NFL quarterback, but he showed games in which his decision making should be questioned. If the knee heals properly and holds up Mett should be a fringe starter and career back up.
182) Minnesota Vikings - Antone Exum, CB, Virginia Tech: Exum was overshadowed by Fuller at Virginia Tech and a injured ACL caused his stock to plummet. When healthy Exum showcases a diverse set of skills and athletic ability to make coaches drool. If he can come back from the ACL injuries he should be a welcome addition to a young and improving Vikings secondary.
186) Washington Redskins - Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor: Seastrunk is explosive and he should be a nice compliment to Alfred Morris and RGIII in the Washington backfield.
201) San Diego Chargers - Marion Grice, RB, Arizona State: Grice was hyper productive at Arizona State last season and should fit well in the Chargers system behind the oft injured Ryan Matthews. 

Friday, May 9, 2014

2014 NFL Draft Round 2&3 Review

There were 17 trades in the first two days of the NFL draft, 12 on day two and 8 in the 2nd round. The most active teams were the 49ers (4 trades, 11 picks), Browns (4 trades, 13 picks), Dolphins (3 trades, 9 picks) & Eagles (3 trades, 9 picks). Moving forward to look at the picks I'm going to pick random groups out and discuss the picks before that point.

Round 2: Trades, Trades and Trades

33) Houston Texans - Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA: Grade: B+
Trade: Dallas gets 34 and Washington gets 47 & 78 (3rd)
34) Dallas Cowboys (from Washington) - Demarcus Lawrence, OLB, Boise State: Grade: B-

The rumors all afternoon that Dallas wanted to move up for a lineman were true and they moved up to grab the DE/OLB out of Boise. Houston for the second round in a row wasn't able to trade the first pick of the night but came away with a very good piece at a non-QB position. Also the trade makes sense for both Dalls and Washington as Dallas fills a need and Washington needs picks in this draft to fill holes left by the RGIII trade.

35) Cleveland Browns - Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada: Grade: C+
36) Oakland Raiders - Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State: Grade: C
37) Atlanta Falcons - Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Atlanta: Grade: B-
38) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington: Grade: C
39) Jacksonville Jaguars - Marquise Lee, WR, USC: Grade: A-

One of these things is not like the other... the Bucs pick jumps out of this group for me. Seferian-Jenkins is a target for a QB to be named later but what does he add to the offense that trumps a lineman or a QB. Bitonio was a surprise pick but give a bookend to Thomas or slides inside and sures up gurad. Carr is what he is, C might be a touch harsh but he's a poor man's Bridgewater for me. Good on ya Atl and Jax, you filled needs with good players with 1st round talent and some flaws.

Trade: Detroit gets 40 & 146 (5th) and Seattle gets 44 & 111 (4th) & 227 (7th)
40) Detroit (from Seattle from Minnesota) - Kyle Van Noy, OLB, BYU: Grade: A-
Trade: St. Louis gets 41 and Buffalo gets 44 & 153 (5th)
41) St. Louis Rams (from Buffalo) - Lamarcus Joyner, S, Florida State: Grade: B
Trade: Philly gets 42 and Tennessee gets 54 & 122 (4th)
42) Philadelphia (from Tennessee) - Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt: Grade C+

Trade-a-palooza at 40 and some shuffling at 41 give up a grouping of trades that shape the round. Detroit moves up to upgrade their LB corps with a player I really like in Van Noy. Joyner and Mathews fill needs for both teams, Joyner at S or CB and Matthews is a big bodied athlete, just Kelly's type.

43) New York Giants - Weston Richburg, OC, Colorado State: Grade: B
44) Buffalo Bills (from St. Louis) - Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama: Grade: B
45) Seattle Seahawks (from Detroit) - Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado: Grade: D+
46) Pittsburgh Steelers - Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame: Grade: B+
47) Washington Redskins (from Dallas) - Trent Murphy, LB, Stanford: Grade: C
48) Baltimore Ravens - Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State: Grade: B+
49) New York Jets - Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech: Grade: B

This can be broken down into two groups, picks I like the fit and understand from a team building standpoint
and whatever Seattle and Washington were doing. I like Murphy and Richardson is an intersting flyer but Washington needed to get help on the line and OLB is a position with risk but depth. Richardson is slight and had to put on a good amount of weight to hit 180. Richburg, Tuitt, Jernigan and Amaro all contribute as rookies and Kouandjio may start outright for Buffalo.

Trade: San Diego get 50 and Miami gets 57 & 125 (4th)
50) San Diego Chargers (from Miami) - Jeremiah Aattaochu, OLB, Georgia Tech: Grade: A-
51) Chicago Bears - Ego Ferguson, DT, LSU: Grade: C+
52) Arizona Cardinals - Troy Niklas, TE, Notre Dame: Grade: C-
53) Green Bay Packers - Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State: Grade: B
54) Tennessee Titans (from Philadelphia) - Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington: Grade: A-
55) Cincinnati Bengals - Jeremy Hill, RB, LSU: Grade: B+

Another group of picks I liked, with a couple of head scratchers in the middle. Ferguson could be a beast down the line for the Bears but he has a lot of polishing left and there were better more immediate help available. Niklas is a weapon for Palmer but he's rough at the position and with two studs at WR this is just as indulgent and wasteful as the Lions in round 1. Adams, Sankey and Hill all join offenses that needed some bolstering  and I think the RBs were great value for their respective teams.

Trade: Denver gets 56, 242 (7th) and San Francisco gets 63, 171 (5th) & a 2015 4th
56) Denver Broncos (from San Francisco) - Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana: Grade: B-
Trade: San Francisco gets 57 and Miami gets 63 & 171 (5th)
57) San Francisco 49ers (from Miami from San Diego) - Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State: Grade: C+
58) New Orleans Saints - Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska: Grade: A-
59) Indianapolis Colts - Jack Mewhort, OL, Ohio State: Grade: B-
60) Carolina Panthers - Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri: Grade: A

Ealy may be the steal of the round and the draft for Carolina. Jean-Baptiste and Latimer add depth to teams that were inspired here and although I'm a bit low on the 49ers picking Hyde I love him as a player and wish he wasn't in a log-jam of a backfield.

Trade: Jacksonville gets 61 and San Francisco gets 70 (3rd) & 150 (5th)
61) Jacksonville Jaguars (from San Francisco) - Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State: Grade: B+
62) New England Patriots - Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois: Grade: C-
63) Miami Dolphins (from San Francisco from Denver) - Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU: Grade: A-
64) Seattle Seahawks - Justin Britt, OT, Missouri: Grade: C+

This last group after the last San Fran trade to move out of the first round Jacksonville adds another WR favorite of mine to help build a young corps that can help soften the blow post the head case of Justin Blackmon. Love the landry pick here, great competitor, great hands, and a wonderful player. Garoppolo and Britt strike me as upside plays for the futur that I think were a round earlier than they needed. Note: Seattle didn't have a pick in the third due to the Harvin trade so I gave them the half grade higher.

Round 3

65) Houston Texans - C.J. Fiedorowicz, TE, Iowa: Grade: C
66) Washington Redskins - Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia: Grade: A
Trade: Miami gets 67 and Oakland gets 81 & 116 (4th)
67) Miami Dolphins (from Oakland) - Billy Turner, OT, North Dakota State: Grade: B
68) Atlanta Falcons - Dez Southward, S, Wisconsin: Grade: C-
69) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Charles Sims, RB, West Virginia: Grade: C+
70) San Francisco (from Jacksonville) - Marcus Martin, C, USC: Grade: B
71) Cleveland Browns - Chris Kinksey, OLB, Iowa: Grade: C-
72) Minnesota Vikings - Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State: Grade: A
73) Buffalo Bills - Preston Brown, ILB, Louisville: Grade: C-
74) New York Giants - Jay Bromley, DT, Syracuse: Grade: C+
75) St. Louis Rams - Tre Mason, RB, Auburn: Grade: B+
76) Detroit Lions - Travis Swanson, C, Arkansas: Grade: B+
77) San Francisco 49ers - Chris Borland, ILB, Wisconsin: Grade: A-
78) Washington Redskins (from Dallas Cowboys) - Spencer Long, OG, Nebraska: Grade: C+
79) Baltimore Ravens - Terrence Brooks, S, Florida State: Grade: B-
80) New York Jets - Dexter McDougle, CB, Maryland: Grade: B-
81) Oakland Raiders (from Miami) - Gabe Jackson, OG, Mississippi State: Grade: A
82) Chicago Bears - Will Sutton, DT, Arizona State: Grade: A-

Love: Moses at 66, Chrichton at 72, Mason at 74, Swanson at 75, Borland at 76, Jackosn at 81 and Sutton at 82
Reaches: Southward at 68, Kinskey at 71 and Brown at 73

Trade: Houston Gets 83 and Philly gets 101 (4th) & 141 (5th)
83) Houston Texans (from Philadelphia from Cleveland) - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame: Grade: A
84) Arizona Cardinals - Kareem Martin, DE, North Carolina: Grade: C+
85) Green Bay PackersKhyri Thornton, DT, Southern Miss: Grade: C-
86) Philadelphia Eagles - Josh Huff, WR, Oregon: Grade: B-
87) Kansas City Chiefs - Phillip Gaines, CB, Rice: Grade: B+ 
88) Cincinnati Bengals - William Clarke, DE, West Virginia: Grade: C+
89) San Diego Chargers - Chris Watt, OG, Notre Dame: Grade: C+
90) Indianpolis Colts - Donte Moncrief, WR, Ole Miss: Grade: B+
91) Arizona Cardinals - John Brown, WR, Pittsburgh St: Grade: B-
92) Carolina Panthers - Trai Turner, OG, LSU: Grade: A-
Trade: Jacksonville gets 93 and New England gets 105 & 179
93) Jacksonville Jaguars (from New England) - Brandon Linger, OG, Miami (FL): Grade: C+
Trade: Cleveland gets 94 and San Francisco gets 106 & 180
94) Cleveland Browns (from San Francisco) - Terrance West, RB, Towson: Grade: C+
95) Denver Broncos - Michael Schofield, OT, Michigan: Grade: B-
96) Minnesota Vikings - Jerrick McKinnnon, RB, Georgia Southern: Grade: C-
97) Pittsburgh Steelers - Dri Archer, RB/WR/KR, Kent State: Grade: B+
98) Green Bay Packers - Richard Rodgers, TE, California: Grade: D+
99) Baltimore Ravens - Crockett Gilmore, TE, Colorado State: Grade: D
100) San Francisco 49ers - Brandon Thomas, OG, Clemson: Grade: A-

Love: Nix III at 83, Gaines at 87, Moncrief at 90, Turner at 92, Archer at 97 and Thomas at 100
Reaches: Thorton at 85, McKinnon at 96, Rodgers at 98 and Gilmore at 99

I loved what the Texans and 49ers did today with there picks and the value that they got. I also love the 49ers willingness to manuever themselves for later and next year. I was all ready to crush Detroit but I really like the pieces they put together today and want to see who lands Pierre Desir and a couple other players early in round 4 tomorrow.

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Rushed need sleep for work 2014 2nd Round Mock

No analysis, many mistakes, much picks, zero takes.

33) Houston Texans - Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State
34) Washington Redskins - Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia
35) Cleveland Browns - Marquise Lee, WR, USC
36) Oakland Raiders - Cyrus Koundjio, OT, Alabama
37) Demarcus Lawrence, OLB, Boise State
38) Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
39) Jacksonville Jaguars - Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
40) Seattle Seahawks (From Minnesota) - Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame
41) Buffalo Bills - Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA
42) Tennessee Titans - Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
43) New York Giants - Joel Bitonio, OL, Nevada
44) St. Louis Rams - Weston Richburg, C, Colorado State
45) Detroti Lions - Keith McGill, CB, Utah
46) Pittsburgh Steelers - Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State
47) Dallas Cowboys - Bashaud Breeland, CB, Clemson
48) Baltimore Ravens - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame
49) New York Jets - Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana
50) Miami Dolphins - David Yankey, OG, Stanford
51) Chicago Bears - Lemarcuse Joyner, S, Florida State
52) Arizona Cardinals - Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Georgia Tech
53) Green Bay Packers - Marcus Martin, C, USC
54) Philadelphia Eagles - Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
55) Cincinnati Bengals - Scott Crichton, DE, Oregon State
56) San Francisco 49ers (From Kansas City) - Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State
57) San Diego Chargers - Ego Ferguson, DT, LSU
58) New Orleans Saints - Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU
59) Indianapolis Colts - Dion Bailey, S, USC
60) Carolina Panthers - Gabe Jackson, OG, Mississippi State
61) San Francisco 49ers - Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska
62) New England Patriots - Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State
63) Denver Broncos - Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, Eastern Illinois
64) Seattle Seahawks - Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech

2014 NFL Draft Round 1 Review

The first round of the draft is one of my NFL days of the year and a nerdy pleasure for me. A lot of intrigue at the top of the round but the top seven players off the board weren't too much of a surprise but the order and the teams drafting certainly were. As always grades are stupid and I do them because they help me sleep or something, or I like them.

1) Houston Texans - Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina: No-brainer for me, Clowney was the best player in the draft and has talent to spare. Clowney is special and a talent.  Grade: A
2) St. Louis Rams - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: Elite athleticism, great run blocker needs to work on his pass protection because of a lack of reps but has the upside to be an elite left tackle for a long time. I would have taken Matthews to protect Bradford out of the gate but I don't hate the pick. Grade: B
3) Jacksonville Jaguars - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF: Yeah, sure, why not. I mean it reminds me too much of Blaine Gabbert a QB that needs work but I like what you have to work with. I saw him make stick throws at UCF in big situations but I don't think I would have taken him in the first. He needs accuracy work but he needs to be more consistent in the pocket and with his mechanics but I like the pick. Grade: B-
Trade: Bills get 4 Browns get 9 and 2015 1st & 4th Browns: A Bills: B-
4)  Buffalo Bills - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson: Well the Bills wanted/needed to get more weapons for E.J. Manuel and Watkins fit the mold. Didn't have to give up much in this deep draft and only a 1st and a 4th next season. Watkins is for my money the best wide out in this draft and a very good playmaker. Watkins should be the best receiver on the Bills in a year or two at most. Grade: A-
5) Oakland Raiders - Kahlil Mack, OLB, Buffalo: You add the second best defensive player play him at OLB or with his hand in the ground. Great athlete comparable combine numbers to Clowney. Needs some polish but has a pretty impressive repertoire of pass rush moves. Mack should be the best player on this defense sooner than later and a beat for years to come. Grade: B+
6) Atlanta Falcons - Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M: Jake is the most NFL ready tackle, has great bloodlines, and should be a great addition to a struggling Atlanta offensive line. Grade: A
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M: Evans should be a deep and jump ball threat early on even if he needs to work on route running. At six four with his ability this is a he brings impressive size and athleticism to an offense that definitely needs more playmakers. Grade: A-
Trade: Browns get 8 and Minnesota gets 9 and 145 (5th) Browns: A Vikings: A
8) Cleveland Browns - Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State: A lot of people didn't like the pick or the movement to make it but that requires the understanding that Minnesota definitely had a CB need  and Gilbert was the biggest and most physically gifted of the bunch. Gilbert has flaws and needs to improve his tackling and consistancy and the loss of a fifth round shouldn't hurt their draft too much. Grade: B-
9)  Minnesota Vikings - Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA: Barr is high upside but if the Vikings plan to put his hand in the ground they are going to need to be patient. Barr has one move when pass rushing and needs to do a better job of making a play when he sets the edge. Barr has room to grow but I don't like the fit when it comes to the Vikings. Grade: C
10) Detroit Lions - Back to back NFC North picks that leave me wanting. With Beckhma Jr, Aaron Donald, both top safeties and all but Gilbert available at CB there were a myriad of options for the Lions to make major improvements to a squad that has holes to fill. Ebron is a beast of an athlete and a tight end but I don't think he has the impact that a defensive back could have had on this Lions team. Eric Ebron, TE, UNC: Grade: C-
11) Tennessee Titans - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan: I initially liked this pick for the Titans because it represented good value but with Roos and Oher anchoring the ends of the line and my skepticism about Lewan's ability to move inside leave me wanting with this Titans pick. Grade: C-
12) New York Giants - Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU: I like this pick, I would've been just as alright with Donald or Martin but the Giants don't have much depth left in the wide reciever corps. Beckham caught everything thrown in his direction in Baton Rouge and should add an intersting and fun threat alongside Victor Cruz but the Giants absolutely need to provide some protection for Eli Manning. Grade: B+
13) St. Louis Rams - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh: One of my favorite picks in the middle of the first round the Rams got the best interior presence in the draft and a match up problem for guards. Donald is undersized but with the pressure applied from Long and Robert Quinn, Donald should at least provide disruptions from time to time year one. Grade: A
14) Chicago Bears - Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech: With Donald off the board one pick before the Bears pick instead of addressing the Safety position Chicago went younger at CB with Fuller. Fuller was the most consistant CB of the bunch last season but not necessarily the flashiest. His rough and tumble style and tackling ability make him a great fit for an aging defense and secondary. Grade: B+
15) Pittsburgh Steelers - Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State: I think this is a bit early for Shazier but I love his fit and versatility for Pittsburgh. Shazier for his part should fill in at ILB for Pitt and brings athleticism and an ability to play downhill and find the ball. I think it's a good match of player and team I'm not sure about where he was picked. Grade: C+
16) Dallas Cowboys - Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame: With Manziel still on the board there was plenty of drama around this pick but Dallas went more sensible and took the best O-lineman on the board. Martin can fill in at either tackle or guard this coming season and should provide great things in the run game and solid performance in pass protection. I really like this pick and the Cowboys have made significant moves to improve the offensive line. Grade: B-
17) Baltimore Ravens - C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama: Mosley slipped below Shazier in the draft most likely due to injury issues but I think this fits much better. Mosley is a smart, athletic linebacker that should pair well on the inside with Arthur Brown, last years 2nd rounder, very well as they both grow into the Ravens system. Grade: B+
18) New York Jets - Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: With both top safeties on the board the Jets went with the heavy hitting safety out of Louisville. Rex Ryan is salivating as he thinks about all the ways that they can use Pryor to disrupt receivers and QBs to break up offensive rhythm with a player who likes to lay the wood. Grade: B-
19) Miami Dolphins - Juwan James, OT, Tennessee: A reach but even though I gave it a C I understand and like what the Dolphins did. Jmaes will plug in at RT across from Brandon Alberts and the two of them should upgrade the dismal protection that was provided Tannehill last season. Grade C
Trade: Saints get 20 and Arizona gets 27 & 91 (3rd) Saints: B+ Arizona: A-
20) New Orleans Saints - Branin Cooks, WR, Oregon State: The Saints jumped up from 27 and I thought for Clinton-Dix but instead they took the best WR off the board. Cooks is a speedster with 4.33 speed and he plays to that. Cooks should fill in well on a depleted Saints roster and I like the aggressiveness to come up for what many thought was a WR that compared well to Beckham after the top two guys at the position. Grade: B
21) Green Bay Packers - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama: As a Packers fan, I am estatic about this pick and as a draft reviewer it meets just about all the criteria. Ha Ha should be able to slot in at FS right away and play umbrella coverage over the top. He is certainly an upgrade over the mess that was the 2013 secondary and should be able to stabilize an inconsistent group on the Packers defense. Grade: A-
Trade: Browns get 22 and Eagles get 26 & 83 (3rd) Browns: B+ Eagles: A
22) Cleveland Browns - Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M: The Browns moved up to get Manziel from 26. I personally and as a fan love this pick because I want Manziel in the league in a prominent role but from an analytic standpoint I wouldn't have taken him in the first and I'm not completely sure I trust him to be consistent in his ability to improvise under control. Grade: C+
23) Kansas City Chiefs - Dee Ford, DE, Auburn: I don't understand the fit here, I like the player, I like the slot of the pick but I don't know if Ford is used efficiently as a stand up OLB in a 3-4.  Maybe he shifts to 3-4 DE like a J.J. Watt and the Chiefs use him to take pressure off of aging OLB who have health issues. Personally I like the sound of the latter but I think the lean here is to add depth to the OLB corps. Grade: C+
24) Cincinnati Bengals - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State: I'm not sure what I think about this pick on one hand I loved watching Dennard at Michigan State and think he's should be very good. On the other hand most of value in college came from bump and run and the lack of illegal contact at that level of football. C+/B- is the range I think it's good value and I want him to succeed but I worry about his ability to turn and run (turn mostly and whether he can become much more disciplined with his hands at the next level. Grade: B-
25) San Diego Chargers - Jason Verrett, CB, TCU: Undersized cornerback at 5-9/5-10 but Verrett is a straight gamer. Jason became one of the best corners in college and was arguably better than Gilbert. I think Verrett will be a difference-maker for the Chargers just needs to stay healthy. Grade: B
26) Philadelphia Eagles - Marcus Smith, LB, Louisville: Should play outside lienbacker for the Eagles but I wonder if this was a bit too much of reach with Roby at CB on the board and a big time athlete in Demarcus Lawrence who I would have like much more here. I do understand the pick because Kelly loves big athletic players and Smith definitely fits that mold.Grade: C-
27) Arizona Cardinals - Deone Buchannon, SS, Washington State: Many thought he'd be here late in the second round but probably the best strong safety in a weak safety class Buchanon adds to an intriguing young defensive backfield. Deone may have some growing pains but he was a tackling machine at Wazzou and should bring a rough edge to the Cardinals defense over the top. Grade: B-
28) Carolina Panthers - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State: I don't like Benjamin more than Lee in this situation but I understand the appeal. The idea of Newton throwing the jump ball to Bejamin really is exciting but he needs to improve his consistency, his hands, and his route running. This adds to a list of upside WR picks for Carolina and that hasn't worked out greatly for them. Grade: C
29) New England Patriots - Dominic Easley, DE, Florida: Injury concerns, two ACL injuries but he is a beast and probably would have been a top ten pick if he didn't have those issues. Great scheme versatility and able to play both inside and outside. I want to be lower on this but when the pick came through I thought... Great pick Bill. We will see and if his knees hold up it will be a great pick. Grade: C+
30) San Francisco 49ers - Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois: I really like this pick, no other safety on the board is going to match his production and I think he's a better player than Buchannon. Ward should be able to upgrade an aging defensive backfield, him and Reid should be stalwarts next to each other for the foreseeable future and with impact. Edit: The rumor mill has spit out that San Fran is looking to play Ward at cornerback more than safety. I'm good on that and it fills a bigger need for a 49ers team with age issues outside. Grade: A-
31) Denver Broncos - Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State: Roby had some interesting off the field stuff post-combine but Roby is a very fine pick here. Athletic freak but was inconsistent all season and could have gone much higher. He could be a hell of a steal here but needs to sure up the consistency. Grade: B-
Trade: Vikings get 32 and Seahawks 40 & 108 (4th)
32) Minnesota Vikings - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville: I really like this move back up for a couple of different reasons. First, the move back into the first round give the Vikings the fifith year of financial control if/when Bridgewater pans out. Secondly, I like this move because I think he's the one QB in teh draft that I can see being a franchise QB for the next decade. Lastly, it removes the doubt and the distraction of not having brought in the Cassel/Ponder replacement. Grade: A-

Enjoyable first round a good amount of surprises, it was fun and I hope to get a sure to wrong second round mock out there tonight. 

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Final 2014 NFL Mock Draft

1) Houston Texans - Jadaveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina: This hasn't changed in any of my mocks and I'm not going to start now. With no QBs really standing out with franchise changing ability Clowney and his immense raw talent are an obvious choice for a team that is only one year removed from the playoffs.
2) St. Louis Rams (Via Washington) - Jake Matthews, OT, Auburn: This is one I changed from mock one to two because of something I heard on a podcast, which was that the Rams would most likely sacrifice some upside at the tackle position with a player who was more polished and ready to step right in and protect Sam Bradford. This is why Matthews is the pick, Robinson is a physical freak but he needs a lot of polish on his pass blocking, whereas Matthews comes in with much less rough edges.
3) Jacksonville Jaguars - Kahlil Mack, OLB, Buffalo: Mack is the second of the elite defensive talents in this draft behind Clowney and it is clear to see why. Mack definitely needs a bit more polish around the edges but unlike Barr who we will talk about later he utilizes multiple moves in the pass rush and is not a hindrance in coverage. I know there has been talk about his inconsistency to produce in the MAC but I have no qualms about believing that is attributable to offenses scheming toward him and his lack of experience playing football.
4) Cleveland Browns - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson: Without an elite player at QB and with a promising young (enough) QB already on the roster Cleveland doesn't have to force a player that they don't think gives them elite talent at the position. In comes Watkins one of the four players I think are elite at the top of this draft (Clowney, Mack, Robinson & Watkins) although slightly smaller he plays with physicality that will match up well on Sundays. In summation, Gordon and Watkins would be a dangerous and scary conundrum for defenses for years to come. 
5) Oakland Raiders - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: I think Oakland is ecstatic with Robinson dropping in their laps after the loss of Veldheer in the off-season. Many have lambasted what looks like a bunch of short term additions by the Raiders but I think the free agent moves are a stop gap as the roster is populated and taken over by younger talent. Robinson would fit the bill nicely and has a worst case scenario of a guard for 10 years with his power & speed combination.
6) Atlanta Falcons - Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA: This pick gave me the most trouble, in a perfect world for Atlanta, Robinson or Matthews is still here but short of the speculated trade to one to get Clowney the Falcons have an interesting choice here. Atlanta already uses a lot of 3-4 subsets on defense and in both that and there 4-3 they need an OLB and a pass rush threat. Barr fits both criteria and although raw would add to a talent cache that the Falcons have been trying to build for a couple of years now.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M: The loss of Mike Williams hurts the already shallow receiver depth on a team that is leaning towards starting a 34 (?) year old QB who played mediocre football for five weeks last season. Mike Evans would be a boon for either QB that the Bucs choose to put on the field in 2014 and it is plain to see why. Evans showed impressive range, an ability to high point the football and a willingness to be physical that will only pay dividends going forward. Watching the On the Clock special on ESPN on 5/1 the panel made a good point about this being a potential landing spot for Aaron Donald so that is definitely something to look for when draft day comes.
8) Minnesota Vikings - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF: This pick is pretty simple, Norv and co. like big quarterbacks and Bortles is a big QB. Ponder hasn't worked out and hasn't really grown so a change in who hands off to Peterson and throws to Jennings/Patterson is the obvious choice here.
9) Buffalo Bills - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama: The Bills lost Jarius Byrd in the offseason after a lot of fuss last offseason. And need help in the back end of their defense to help support and benefit from a much improved front seven. Clinton-Dix has the range and big play ability to play center field and the physical ability to come up in the box and support against the run. The Bills could still use some help on the O-line but there should be enough depth in this class to get that later on.
10) Detroit Lions - Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma St: Gilbert is considered the best corner in the draft by many and even those who are down believe he is best utilized in press at the line and man up on the upside. With a stellar line and an improving linebacking corps the ability to play man type coverage on the outside should be the latest step to making this team even that much better.
11) Tennessee Titans - Eric Ebron, TE, UNC: This pick is a bit of a trouble for me, I liked the fit of Barr in my last mock but I have him going to Atlanta at six in this last iteration. Ebron for me ended up being the pick because I think the Titans give locker one more year and a seam busting tight end is a gift that keeps on giving for any quarterback. The one other route I could see the Titans going is Teddy and that would be because the new regime doesn't have faith or the fact that they picked him weighing on their decision making.
12) New York Giants - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan: The Giants need help on the offensive line and with Lewan still here at twelve they get a chance to pick the third best lineman in the draft and book-end him with last year’s first pick in Justin Pugh. The young duo should anchor the Giants line for some years to come and give Manning or his incumbent time and space to work.
13) St. Louis Rams - Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: The Rams could definitely look to add another playmaker to the roster with Beckham and Cooks still on the board but I think they look to strengthen the back seven by added Pryor to a young but under performing group heading into this season. Pryor is an inconsistent player at times but shows really flashy tools and an ability to read the offense pre-snap. The tutelage of Fisher and staff should help him develop a better and more consistent approach to the game.
14) Chicago Bears - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh: I write this with the rumors swirling that Donald will not be available at fourteen for the Bears to select him and that is very well possible as he is the most disruptive interior lineman in this draft. In this mock, he will stay here because I think there are players that are more desired and fit bigger needs with just as much talent that will go ahead of him. Donald on the bears is a great place to rebuild an aging defense, with his quick get off and his ability to make himself known in the backfield he should be a boon for young teammates and old. 
15) Pittsburgh Steelers - Odell Bekcham Jr., WR, LSU: The Steelers selection is the next that really evades me being certain which direction they will take. Notorious for building defenses the best assets and chances for winning come from the offense and a bit more investment in Rothlesberger and company. For my part in this mock both availability and thought process make this pick a slam dunk for the Steelers.
16) Dallas Cowboys - Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State: Cowboys defenses of late have gotten away with a lack of push on the inside but with Demarcus Ware gone and Sean Lee getting injured late in the year it is time for the interior to get some push and take the pressure and the body blows off the linebacking corps. Jernigan has been dogged for his conditioning and weight issue but I think the hate has gone too far and that the condition claims in the NCG where more do to opponent and environment than lack of conditioning. Jernigan should make a difference year one if only on 2nd and 3rd downs and as a rotation players.
17) Baltimore Ravens - Zack Martin, OT, Notre Dame: The Ravens have had troubles on the O-line since Jonathan Ogden left and now have a huge hole to fill at tackle and that isn't really specific to either side because the existing options a good but not great. Martin brings the flexibility to play either tackle position and like Robinson has the power and footwork to move inside as a worst-case scenario. This would be a great move for a team with such an investment at quarterback.
18) New York Jets - Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State: Yes the Jets brought in Eric Decker and have Stephen Hill to stretch the field but the talent level of this receiving corps is meh at best and Decker and Hill definitely haven't shown off bona fide #1 or #2 ability respectively in their careers. Cooks brings another young and talented receiver into the fold and would at worst bring viable competition for the slot receiver role and definitely remind everyone involved in the passing game that no one is on stable footing just yet in year 2 of the Geno Smith era in Jersey.
19) Miami Dolphins - Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA: The line is atrocious and after the incidents of last season a fresh new look at the offensive line and new additions should be paramount. If Miami ever expects the growth out of Tannehill that led them to pick him so high in the first round then protection is a the key that needs to be figured out sooner rather than later. Su'a-Filo is the best pure guard in the draft and provides a powerful strike in the run game and good punch in the pass game. Tackle might be the preferable position at nineteen there isn't much on the inside of this line either and Su'a-Filo would be a welcome addition.
20) Arizona Cardinals - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville: Palmer is 34, going to be 35 mid-season, and only has so much tread on the tires. This allows Arizona to be flexible at this point of the draft and with the best QB in the draft still available the Cardinals should run this pick to the podium and thank themselves in a couple of years when they have Palmer's replacement all groomed.
21) Green Bay Packers - C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama: This is a match made in heaven and one that many think won't happen. The Packers may have slightly more pressing needs especially at safety but with Mosley falling that Packers can have A.J. Hawk play more downhill and worry less about pass coverage. Mosley would add a sideline to sideline ability that the Packers have sorely missed out of their middle linebackers the last couple of seasons. Along with a middle linebacker who should make the adjustment to the NFL pretty quickly.
22) Philadelphia Eagles - Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech: Fuller may be the best cornerback in the draft and ranks right up there in the consistency of his play. Fuller hasn't garnered attention for flashy play but he's is a stable a tactician as they come and his game against Alabama was very impressive. Fuller would be a great addition to a defense that needs talent and was susceptible to the big play.
23) Kansas City Chiefs - Marquise Lee, WR, USC: Lee dropped a bit from where his stock stood last season, some of that is attributed to quarterback play and program instability but also to Lee finding a case of the dropsies. Lee has the ability to stretch the field and showed very good hands in his 2012 campaign, his individual workouts and interviews are going to be the biggest factor in where he gets drafted.
24) Cincinnati Bengals - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State: Dennard was one of the best press man coverage cornerbacks in college football in 2013. That in and of itself is a worthwhile skill set but he isn't without risks. Dennard shows tight hips which effects his ability to swivel turn and run with elite athletes at WR and will probably lead to a susceptibility on double moves. He does, however, show enough athleticism to recover when out of position and to keep himself in good positions once the ball is in the air.
25) San Diego Chargers - Jason Verrett, CB, TCU: Verrett falls this far on the fact that he is shorter than the rest of the 1st round corners. At 5-10 176 Verrett may have trouble against the bigger receivers in the league but his time at TCU shows time and again the agility and athleticism to make up for his height in man coverage and when tackling in zone. Verrett would be a welcome addition to most any secondary and would upgrade at worst the nickel corner role in year one for the Chargers.
26) Cleveland Browns (Via Indianapolis) - Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State: Roby is probably the most inconsistently frustrating player in the first round. Roby has the athleticism and talent to be a top 10-15 pick and shows those flashes when you watch him play but he will follow up those plays and stretches by making mistakes and overplays that don't show off his football IQ. The Wisconsin game is a microcosm of this issue as him and Abbredaris battled and Roby made great plays on the ball but missed a couple key assignments that led to big plays for Abbredaris. 
27) New Orleans Saints - Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State: Robys teammate at Ohio State Shazier was a consistent performer the last couple of seasons for the Buckeyes. Shazier played weak side linebacker in the 4-3 and always had his nose around the ball. Shazier would be an instant and consistent addition to a Saints defense that is quickly becoming more talented and well rounded.
28) Carolina Panthers - Morgan Moses, OT, Virginia: Moses is a player that has crept up the rankings that I compile to help me do these mocks and is working his way up in name recognition as well. Moses has the ability to become a top flight tackle but there is a reason he slips to the late first early second and the main thing I saw was questionable technique in his pass block, in which he stops his feet. When he regains his base, however, he is powerful and drives pass rushers and run defenders alike back. Consistency is the key but the Carolina needs someone to step in and protect Newton day one and that is the challenge for Moses.
29) New England Patriots - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame: Louis Nix III had a rough season last year and most of it can be attributed to injuries and of course that's a worry. Nix's 2012 campaign, however, was stellar and in my eyes a more accurate representation of his talent than his 2013 season. Nix would be a natural successor to Vince Wilfork and brings the same type of size and athleticism that has made Wilfork such a productive pro.
30) San Francisco 49ers - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State: Benjamin is a big receiver, with speed but he's a bit raw. This would be the second time in the last few seasons that 49ers have taken a bit of a project at WR and we all remember how well A.J. Jenkins career has gone so far. Benjamin for his part burst onto the scene during Florida State's National Championship run, he needs to make his route running crisper and has had some issues with the drops but nothing that enough red flags to pass up on the talent.
31) Denver Broncos - Dee Ford, DE, Auburn: Dee Ford was the star of Senior Bowl week, and showed flashes while playing at Auburn. The biggest worry, however, wasn't the lack of production or technique issues but his extensive injury history. At 31 I think he well worth the risk for the Broncos but I don't see Ford sneaking up much higher than the mid-20s.
32) Seattle Seahawks - Cyrus Koundjio, OT, Alabama: Koundjio came into the season on the short list of top left tackle prospects in college football. That all went away after a disastrous week one of the season against Virginia Tech. Koundjio and the entire Bama line recovered though and he had a solid if not the spectacular season we were all looking forward too. This pick seems like a value for the Seahawks who don't have any glaring needs, although they should be looking for some replacements on the D-line and secondary, but could use some stiffening up of the front 5 to help protect and grow Russell Wilson.

One round down one to go in my final 2014 mock draft. At this point we haven't discussed the Redskins or Colts but we will get to them in the second round here. It is important to keep in mind that there will undoubtedly be trades both Thursday and Friday and also that I am just guessing on some of these, especially as we get further into round 2.

33) Houston Texans: - David Yankey, OG, Stanford: Houston went Clowney round 1 and now look to sure up the offensive line. QB was a thought here and if I was going to mock one to Houston I would lean Carr over Manziel because of Bill O'Brien's lean towards bigger pocket passers at the QB position.
34) Washington Redskins: - Joel Bitonio, OT, Nevada: With RGIIIs injury history and the addition of DeSean Jackson in the offseason I'm mocking Bitonio to sure up the right side of the line. DT, DE or CB are also possibilities at this spot.
35) Cleveland Browns: - Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M: With one of the top three QBs still here I think the Browns go with Manziel. I'm not big on second round QBs on the basis that if you thought the player was a game changer at the position why wouldn't you take with your first pick and not risk losing that player to another team. LB and both lines are also a possibility here.
36) Oakland Raiders: - Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State: The Raiders added what they hope is a franchise left tackle at 5 in Greg Robinson, which leads us to who he protects. With the addition of Matt Schaub, Carr would be able to work his way into the starting role at a more leisured pace while he worked on a few of his weaker points.
37) Atlanta Falcons: - Keith McGill, CB, Utah: Having gone pass rushing OLB Aaron Barr, it is time to look at the defensive backfield and the offensive line. Without a standout lineman on the board the Falcons look to strengthen an aging back four with McGill out of Utah. Offensive line is still the biggest need here but the board just hasn't fallen right for the Falcons.
38) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: - Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri: This may wind up being the steal of the draft. Ealy is considered a first round talent by many and I think for the most part it is warranted as one would assume from the last few picks of my previous mocks. There have been rumblings that Ealy may be moved inside once he reaches the NFL because of his ability to out physical opponents which would raise his value a bit but also increase the return on investment time.
39) Jacksonville Jaguars: - Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana: Jacksonville addressed it's need for an edge presence on defense with Mack in the first now it's time to address the lack of explosiveness on the edge on offense with the acquisition of Cody Latimer. With Blackmon out indefinitely and a dearth of talent on the offense Latimer would be a welcome addition. Also with no top tier or two QB on the board now is not the time to reach on a project.
40) Minnesota Vikings: - Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota: Let's start this pick with what the difference on Hageman is this time from the previous mocks and to that I must admit a lack of information on my part that is a bit embarrassing. Hageman is 24 and although that doesn't change his ability it does shed a different light on what you may be able to mold out of such a raw talent. I say all that to say if Hageman can come in and rotate for a d-line that has gotten much younger the last couple of years he can still be a fine and productive choice for a team late first to mid-second.
41) Buffalo Bills: - Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech: Amaro came into the year as at worst the second rated tight end in most peoples opinion. As the year wore on Amaro started to slip in stature and is a good ways behind Ebron in most people’s eyes and much closer to Seferian-Jenkins and that lot. I still think his production and catch ability are high enough to make an instant impact as a receiver and although he may not be the in-line option you're looking for he does seem to hold his own well enough in space to make a blocking impact in sub-packages. This pick should be used only to increase the weapons around E.J. Manuel.
42) Tennessee Titans: - Demarcus Lawrence, DE/OLB, Boise State: Missing out on Barr and Mack in the first round the Titans still have a major hole to fill at the OLB spot in their 3-4 and Lawrence provides a player with some issues off the field but immense talent on the field and an explosive style that would be particularly well suited for the Titans. If the Titans were looking to stay away from character concerns at 42 then they could look at Jeremiah Attaochu and Trent Murphy instead of Lawrence but I believe they address this positional issue earlier in the draft instead of later.
43) New York Giants: - Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State: With the departure of Hakeem Nicks in the off-season and a group of underperforming wide outs outside of Victor Cruz I think the Giants look to fill that gap here in the second round where a WR run is sure to happen with the cluster of second tier options. Robinson gives them a nice contrast to the speedy and field stretching option of Cruz, Robinson is sure handed as they come and wins on body control and hands rather than freak explosive ability. Robinson would pair well in an offense that works deep to short like the Giants.
44) St. Louis Rams: - Weston Richburg, C, Colorado State: The Rams have a lot of holes on the offensive line that they must address if they are to give Bradford a reasonable last chance to develop the way we all thought he would. Richburg played for a Saban disciple at Colorado State and performed well in the couple of high profile games that Colorado State and as one of the two top tier Cs this would give the Rams two new additions to a poor offensive line and an upgrade.
45) Detroit Lions: - Jimmie Ward, S, Northern Illinois: Ward is one of the better thought of small school prospects in the draftnik community and after Pryor and Clinton-Dix is the next best option to work his way onto an opening day starting lineup. Ward doesn't have the explosive ability of a Pryor or Clinton-Dix but he plays smart safety and downhill to his great advantage and should be able to roam center field at the next level.
46) Pittsburgh Steelers: - Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre Dame: This would be a match made in heaven and a great value pick in the second round for the Steelers, who would pick up one of the few highly rated pure 3-4 defensive end types. Tuitt has more questions about his game than former teammate Nix who went earlier in the round but Tuitt shows enough on tape the last couple of years to make you believe he will be at worst a contributor for whatever team takes him in this year’s draft.
47) Dallas Cowboys: - Kyle Van Noy, LB, BYU: With this pick Dallas would be bringing in one of my favorite defensive players of the last couple years from college football. When watching BYU games it was impossible to not come away impressed with Van Noy’s game and ability to make sure he was around the ball just about every play. Van Noy is one of those guys who on draft day they will describe as just a pure football player, not the greatest athlete but maximizes all he has to use.
48) Baltimore Ravens: - Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt: The Ravens have gathered themselves a great collection of TEs but the receiving corps still leaves something to be desired. In Matthews the Ravens pick up a receiver that should be able to provide a slot threat inside of Torrey Smith and create havoc over the middle of the field to take some pressure of those over the top routes that Baltimore has become so reliant on for success.
49) New York Jets: - Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Georgia Tech: Attaochu doesn't have the jump off the screen athleticism that Lawrence has but he doesn't come with the baggage either. Rex Ryan is always looking for good players to plug into his 3-4 and Attaochu fills a big need in the front seven of a defense that was still pretty darn good last season. Under Ryan's tutelage Jeremiah's game should grow and Ryan gets a tireless worker to keep this defense rolling.
50) Miami Dolphins: - Austin Steferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington: Seferian-Jenkins is a beast of a tight end and I mean that mostly because he is larger than most receiving threat tight ends to come out of college. At 6-6 260 he has the body to be an in-line player but needs a lot of refinement on his technique but he has some of the surest hands in the class and knows how to use his girth to shield defenders. I think he's still available here because of some off-field trouble that may scare some teams off.
51) Chicago Bears: - Deone Buchannon, SS, Washington State: The Bears aging defense needs help in a lot of places and after the addition of the beast of Aaron Donald to the front four it's time to look at the back four and to fortify some holes that may have made the difference between the playoffs and watching from home in January and February. In steps Deone Buchannon to supplement a secondary that most fans in the NFL would know maybe one player. Buchannon slots in at SS and should be a player written in to start if not from day one, then early on in his rookie campaign.
52) Arizona Cardinals: - Scott Chrichton, DE, Oregon State: Chrichton was a beast at Oregon State and gave many a Pac-12 team trouble. In a shallow 4-3 DE class he may not be here this late but I think a lack of diversification in skill sets makes Chricton drop a bit in the draft.
53) Green Bay Packers: - Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State: The Packers have lost James Jones, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver in the past couple of season and although Randall Cobb is a star in the making and Jarrett Boykin broke out last season a replenishment is still needed at the position especially with the emphasis on the passing game with Rodgers under Center. Adams is a physical specimen who broke out alongside Derek Carr in the Fresno State offense. With soft hands and a giant catch radius Adams doesn't necessarily need to start right away for Green Bay but another talented addition to the receiving corps should not be frowned upon for the Packers.
54) Philadelphia Eagles: - Trent Murphy, DE/OLB, Stanford: The Eagles need help on the defensive side of the ball and Trent Murphy would hopefully help and be more productive than Brandon Graham the first round pick at OLB from a few years back. Murphy played OLB in Stanford's multiple defense last season and his athleticism should serve him well standing up in the Eagles defense.
55) Cincinnati Bengals: - Carlos Hyde, RB, Ohio State: I know the Bengals took Giovani Bernard a couple of seasons ago but I think the addition of Hyde to the backfield would be an improvement over Bernard and the law firm. Hyde is my favorite back this season because he has enough agility to hit the hole on one cut and then run a linebacker over. Hyde became one of my favorite running backs to watch in the Big Ten and last seasons that is saying something.
56) San Francisco 49ers (From Kansas City): - Bashuad Breeland, CB, Clemson: I have San Francisco WR in the first round but I think they need to add some depth in the secondary and Breeland provides them with this opportunity in the second round. Breeland and the Clemson defense were a revelation last season and Breeland’s performance helped to prop up that performance.
57) San Diego Chargers: - Dom Easley, DT, Florida: Dom Easley is a first round talent, period. Two ACL injuries in the last two seasons have made his draft stock fall but this would be a steal and ridiculous value if I’m right on Easley falling to San Diego.
58) New Orleans Saints: - Marcus Martin, C, USC: The Saints need to add some young talent to the offensive line and with the second best center is still on the board. Martin for his part is a road grader in the run game and sufficient enough in his pass blocking form to bring at least competition to the table in the middle of the offensive line.
59) Indianapolis Colts: - Lemarcus Joyner, S, Florida State: Joyner played all over the place in FSU’s defense last season. As the leader of the defense he was a key cog in both the title game and title run for the Seminoles. Joyner should add athleticism and a playmaking ability that the Colts did not have in the secondary last year.
60) Carolina Panthers: - Donte Moncrief, WR, Ole Miss: The Panthers need weapons for Newton and protection and with Morgan Moses in the books already the panthers look to add a weapon. Moncrief had a very good year with Dr. Bo Wallace at the helm of the Rebels offense and he has big YAC potential but the one doubt in this pick is whether this year was an aberration or just the first year with quality QB play in Oxford.
61) San Francisco 49ers: - Will Sutton, DT, Arizona State: Aldon Smith is in trouble and may not be back with the team and Josh Smith is showing signs of aging and slowing down so the 9ers need to add depth to the line to keep the level of play in the front seven on an extremely high level. Sutton had a rough season this year after looking like a first round lock before the season started. Sutton added weight, whether that was work ethic or because Arizona State’s coaching staff wanted him to clog the middle more than be the explosive player I’m not sure but he has lost weight since the start of the offseason and if the explosiveness comes back in the pros he could be a beast and a steal at 61.
62) New England Patriots: - Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin: Is there anything the Patriots like more than guys who go out and ball. Borland is ranked high by Kiper but I think he’s a much better value in the second. He could play inside on all three downs next to mayo and shift to weak side LB when they go to a four man front. Borland may not have the upside of a Kuechly but with his motor and nose for the ball he should have staying power and that’s a valuable thing as well.
63) Denver Broncos: - Gabe Jackson, OG, Mississippi State: The Broncos offensive line was beat up last year across the board even without the injury to Ryan Clady and some youth is needed even if it is just at the two deep early on. Jackson is a mauler and a beast in the run game and saw plenty of elite tackles in the SEC to know what he is going to have to do to shut down the pass rush inside in the pros.
64) Seattle Seahawks: - Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU: With the last pick of my mock we come to the Seahawks and I have them looking to replace a couple of departed WR with the second LSU receiver off the board. Landry is undersized and lacks the elite athleticism of Beckham Jr. But he just made plays for the years he played at LSU. Wide out is tricky transition but this pick would be a great match for Seattle and Landry.


If you’ve read this far thank you… you are far too kind and much more patient than I. I have fun doing these and they give me a chance to expand my knowledge of the players coming into the league through the amateur draft. The draft is four days away as I finish typing this up and I am filled with a nerdy and giddy excitement.