Subtractions/Additions
This year the conference loses the most stable athletic department it had retained (Louisville) and the one that is run by blind monkeys with typewriters (Rutgers). I might be a little harsh on Rutgers but the handling of their athletic department and the PR of such is well amateur at best lately. Louisville is a bigger loss, the reigning NCAA basketball champs and a solid program to boot. To counteract those losses the AAC brought in East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa. East Carolina is the best acquisition of the bunch but is a few years removed from a high water mark under Skip Holtz but reached similar heights last season according to Bill Connelly is certainly in a position to make some noise in there new conference. Tulsa and Tulane took two different paths to gain entry, Tulane had been abysmal for the better part of the last decade, where as Tulsa has been an above average FBS team for the better part of the last decade but took a severe turn for the worse. Will these two teams revert to what they have been over the last decade or will they continue to move in different directions.Recent History
The recent history of the AAC is a muddled mess that covers two conferences, 8 champions or co-champions, and around a dozen additions/subtractions to the conference ranks. Last year was the first non-shared championship in the last three seasons was won by UCF. Behind Bortles and O'Leary UCF stunned Louisville at home and survived four too many scares to inferior teams. 2012 was the greatest clusterf@#k in recent history with four teams sharing the final Big East conference title. Louisville got the BCS nod, but shared the title Cincinnati, Rutgers and Syracuse in what was a wild finish and full of upsets and/or disappointments and poorly played games. 2011 was much the same but there was a three team tie atop the league standings, Louisville, Cincinnati & West Virginia. West Virginia got the nod that year but it's not a good sign when of the last eight champions or co-champions five of the eight are no longer in the conference and have moved on to lackluster performances in their new conferences.Coaching Changes
The AAC was pretty stable this offseason with only one coaching change among the eleven teams and that was at UCONN. Paul Pasqualoni was fired four games into last season after going 10-18 in two and a half seasons at the helm of the Huskies. Paul is replaced by Bob Diaco who was given his first head coaching job after about five seasons of following Kelly from CMU to Cincinnati and finally to Notre Dame. Diaco won't have the talent to work with on either side of the ball that he saw and had at ND, but he's an intriguing hire and one to watch in East Hartford.Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % yards), Returning Def (Starters, % yards) *coach records are career numbers
Cincinnati Bearcats (9-4, 7(N), 74.1%, 6, 63.2%) Cincinnati is the team that in recent years has been better than the national average but frustratingly inconsistent. 2013 was no different, they went 9-4 but with Louisville losing to UCF the Bearcats should have been ready to pounce, no pun intended, but they didn't they lost USF & SMU in conference and Illinois out of conference. Tubberville and co. bring back a large quantity of playmakers from last years squad but need to replace Brandon Kay who threw for nearly 3300 yards last season. if they can replace him and key players they are in the drivers seat in the conference but consistancy is the key to success in football and Cincinnati has been nothing if not inconsistent. Current Head Coach: Tommy Tubberville (139-81) Since 2013
Central Florida (UCF) Golden Knights (12-1, 6(N), 65.9%, 9, 84.1%) I want to say that the loss of Blake Bortles will ruin this team but UCF may be the class of the AAC now. Cincinnati has been more consistent UCF has been the best recruiting and has shown a higher ceiling to pair with the lower floor. Despite losing five starters on offense the squad isn't in bad shape. They lose Bortles and Storm Johnson but they have a trio of 3 stars lined up to replace Bortles and Johnson's replacement looks solid if not spectacular. The situation on defense is even better, they return all but three starters and only one top contributor from any unit on the defense. I originally was assuming this would be a regression year but there is enough coming back and enough history of success to think that this years team will challenge for the conference crown once again. Current Head Coach: George O'Leary (124-89) Since 2004
East Carolina (ECU) Pirates (10-3, 5(Y), 61.3%, 4, 49.4%) East Carolina was one of the best and most consistant teams in Conference USA for the better part of the last decade. Now with the move to the AAC they bring back some talent from a 10-3 team last season but have some work to do on the defensive side of the ball. The biggest plus on an offense bringing back five players is the return of starting QB Shane Carden and his 4100 yards. Carden is joined by his top two recievers and a some young up and coming skill players. On defense they return all but one of the top performers on the line their best linebacker but only one CB. The defensive backfield will be the key to the season but a fast start on offense and stellar line play on defense may be enough to buoy the Pirates until some young guys step up in the back four. Current Head Coach: Ruffin McNeil (30-22) Since 2010
East Carolina (ECU) Pirates (10-3, 5(Y), 61.3%, 4, 49.4%) East Carolina was one of the best and most consistant teams in Conference USA for the better part of the last decade. Now with the move to the AAC they bring back some talent from a 10-3 team last season but have some work to do on the defensive side of the ball. The biggest plus on an offense bringing back five players is the return of starting QB Shane Carden and his 4100 yards. Carden is joined by his top two recievers and a some young up and coming skill players. On defense they return all but one of the top performers on the line their best linebacker but only one CB. The defensive backfield will be the key to the season but a fast start on offense and stellar line play on defense may be enough to buoy the Pirates until some young guys step up in the back four. Current Head Coach: Ruffin McNeil (30-22) Since 2010
Houston Cougars (8-5, 8(Y), 86.5%, 9, 84.5%) Tony Levine's year two was better than year one, improving from 5-7 to 8-5. To put it lightly the new staff has had to fill in for a couple consecutive great coaching hires but they look to be doing a nice job of acclimating themselves. And with a ton of talent coming back on both sides of the ball they could be looking at a year that adds their names to the list of great hires. With 17 returning starters including last seasons QB and all but two defensive starters the Cougars look poised to be a real contender for the AAC crown. Current Head Coach: Tony Levine (14-12) Since 2012
Southern Methodist University (SMU) Mustangs (5-7, 7(N), 44.3%, 7, 68%) SMU under June Jones has been the form of consistency, unfortunately that consistency is a slightly below average team at the FBS level. Last year saw a bit of a dip but not enough to really worry you. On offense they lose Garrett Gilbert who has taken his lumps through his career at both Texas and SMU but he was a rock for this offense last season and minimized mistakes. They also lose two one thousand yard receivers and return a running game that isn't very good. On defense they bring back a majority of a unit that did a lot of bending but didn't give up the big play. If they can take a step forward this unit will be the basis for a better team in 2014. Current Head Coach: June Jones (112-82) Since 2008
South Florida (USF) Bulls (2-10, 9(Y), 57.1%, 5, 48%) USF comes into the season coming off a horrible year one under Willie Taggert. Much of this can be attributed to the abyss that the previous staff left. So to borrow a term that Bill Connelly of SBNation puts in his previews, let's move past Taggert's year 0 and move on to year one where the change in culture and new talent can take hold. They bring back a sophomore QB, they brought in a 4 star running back and there are senior leaders on the line and receiving corps. On defense you have three former 4 stars on the line, an incoming four star in the LB corps and a bevy of three star defensive backs coming in in the secondary. This team may be young and volatile but year 2 for Taggert and company at least has upside and a lot of hope for the future. Current Head Coach: Willie Tagert (18-30) Since 2013
South Florida (USF) Bulls (2-10, 9(Y), 57.1%, 5, 48%) USF comes into the season coming off a horrible year one under Willie Taggert. Much of this can be attributed to the abyss that the previous staff left. So to borrow a term that Bill Connelly of SBNation puts in his previews, let's move past Taggert's year 0 and move on to year one where the change in culture and new talent can take hold. They bring back a sophomore QB, they brought in a 4 star running back and there are senior leaders on the line and receiving corps. On defense you have three former 4 stars on the line, an incoming four star in the LB corps and a bevy of three star defensive backs coming in in the secondary. This team may be young and volatile but year 2 for Taggert and company at least has upside and a lot of hope for the future. Current Head Coach: Willie Tagert (18-30) Since 2013
Tulane Green Wave (7-6, 7(Y), 53.5%, 6, 62%) Tulane was the surprise of Conference USA last season and one of the bigger surprises in the country at large. They lost a good amount from an offense that was all shades of meh last season which is one of those conundrums, where losing players may make way for better players or these guys were lousy last year but no one picking up the slack this season was good enough to displace them from the starting lineup. On defense this was a very impressive mid-major unit but it loses a good chunk. The good news is the line only losing one top contributor the back seven is a bit more hit by losses and young players stepping up will be key. I think Tulane regresses toward what they were before last season but I don't think they give up all that ground and that's promising for the Green Wave. Current Head Coach: Curtis Johnson (9-16) Since 2013
Memphis Tigers (3-9, 8(Y), 87.4%, 9, 76.2%) Improvement, for the first time in who knows how many years we see an upward trend from the Memphis football team. A team who one former coach on the way out said that they needed to soul search whether they wanted a football team or not. Fuente has been working uphill against a culture and a bereft roster that returns a lot of what made last season a marginal success. With 18 starters returning and the majority of the playmakers on both sides of the ball back it will be interesting and exciting to see if this team can work it's way back to bowl eligibility. Memphis has all the possibilities to be this seasons Tulane and make a jump to a bowl and fringe national consciousness. Or this is just a lot of returning parts of a turd, I hope and lean towards the optimistic viewpoint. Current Head Coach: Justin Fuente (7-17) Since 2012
Connecticut (UCONN) Huskies (3-9, 8(Y), 85.6%, 6, 55%) In Bob Diaco's first season in Storrs he brings back much of the offense from last season but has a rebuilding job on defense. That may be just fine for the former Notre Dame DC who comes into his first head coaching job. UCONN has been bad and actually regressed post Randy Edsall. This season is a year 0 season for Diaco and things won't look too bright at the end of the season, but patients is a virtue when turning around a college football team. Current Head Coach: Bob Diaco (0-0) New Hire
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (3-9, 7(Y), 26.6%, 9, 82.8%) Tulsa fell off the map in 2013 and it makes 2014 a poor time to be transitioning conferences. The good news is the offense finally fell apart and almost all major contributors are gone. Blankenship and his staff need to find playmakers soon so as not to waste the opportunity that stability on defense can provide. The drop off though looks like it may be too steep to recoup in one year and that is why I have Tulsa this low heading into 2014. It could come back to bight me but I just can't get the 2013 offense from out mine eyes. Current Head Coach: Bill Blankenship (22-17) Since 2011
Temple Owls (2-10, 6(Y), 62.5%, 7, 74%) Much like the lower tier of the Sun Belt the Temple Owls are a bad team with a bunch returning. The only real interesting part about the upcoming season is that we are entering year two for Matt Rhule, which means we could see a bit of a jump or a continuation of the rebuilding process that is going to take all of the four year cycle to return to competence. Current Head Coach: Matt Rhule (2-10) Since 2013
2014 Predicted Standings
1) Cincinnati 2) UCF 3) ECU 4) Houston 5) SMU 6) USF 7) Memphis 8) Tulane 9) Tulsa 10) UCONN 11) Temple
From FBS to Group of Five the AAC has fallen into the ranks of the mid-majors and the population of the conference reflects this change. Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Rutgers are all gone but there are some intriguing teams heading into 2014 and most of those are new arrivals which should keep some attention in the AAC's direction. Overall it's a solid if unspectacular group and the old stalwarts should rule the day especially early in the season.
From FBS to Group of Five the AAC has fallen into the ranks of the mid-majors and the population of the conference reflects this change. Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville and Rutgers are all gone but there are some intriguing teams heading into 2014 and most of those are new arrivals which should keep some attention in the AAC's direction. Overall it's a solid if unspectacular group and the old stalwarts should rule the day especially early in the season.
No comments:
Post a Comment