The SEC’s
run of seven straight national championships came to a halt when Auburn fell to
Florida State. Let us all rejoice and realize it could just as easily start up
again this season. The SEC is still at worst the second best conference and
that is mainly attributed to the question marks surrounding the loss of eight
starting quarterbacks in the league. Will anyone step up to challenge Alabama
and Auburn, can Vanderbilt continue its success without James Franklin and
who’s coming out of the East?
Subtractions/Additions
No change in
the conference structure have been made since the additions of Texas A&M
and Missouri in 2012. Although there is speculation of moves to 16 team
conferences there isn’t anything specific.
Recent History
The SEC
hasn’t had a repeat winner since the ’97 & ’98 years when Tennessee won the
conference in successive years. The last three seasons have seen West division
teams win it. 2011 saw LSU take the conference crown after a 9-6 game against
Alabama in the regular season to claim the division. 2012 saw Alabama win the
conference in one of the more entertaining championship games of the past
couple years that saw Georgia fall short in the red zone as time expired. Last
year’s champion was the surprise return to glory of Auburn, who reached Atlanta
with the help of back to back last second wins against Georgia and Alabama.
Auburn beat the equally surprising Missouri in a high quality game and went on
to the National Championship.
Coaching Changes
There was
only one coaching change in the SEC and it was at best an immediate downgrade.
James Franklin is gone for Penn State and a permanent place in the angry hearts
of the entire southeast. Franklin brought Vanderbilt to new heights but decided
three years was enough time to spend in Nashville. To replace Franklin the
Commodores brought in Derek Mason the Stanford DC the last couple of years. I
don’t doubt Mason’s ability to coach, his love of the game or his recruiting
ability but I will always be skeptical of a new coach going into one of the toughest
major conference jobs in the country.
Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % Yards), Returning Def (Starters, % yards) *coach records are career numbers
Alabama
Crimson Tide – (West, 11-2,
12, 7(N), 84.2%, 5, 59%) Saban has apologized for the lackluster 2013
season and is ready to move on and win with drones again in 2014. And in a
decision that is all the rage in 2014, like twerking or the
#ALSIcebucketchallenge, Saban has named co-starters for week one. Blake Sims
and Jacob Coker haven’t separated from each other in practice and will need
game time to break the tie. Whomever wins the is going to end up in the
McCarron, McElroy mold and have a great group of players around them and be
asked not to fuck it up. The backfield is loaded with former four and five
stars (like most of the lineup) and headlined by T.J. Yeldon. Yeldon the former
five star junior ran for 1235 yards on 5 yards a carry and as seems to happen
every year in the Bama backfield was overshadowed by a younger player. That
player was Derrick Henry who averaged almost 11 yards per carry in 2013 and had
a strong showing in the bowl game against Oklahoma. The lost man in this
equation is junior Kenyan Drake who averaged 7.5 yards a carry on 92 carries in
2013. This sis a loaded backfield with not enough carries to go around and isn’t
a worry added to the drop-off talk. Heading to the outside of the field the
Kenny Hill and Kevin Norwood are gone but this is still a stacked group that should
be a great help for either Sims or Coker. Amari Cooper is the headliner, a
junior Cooper had an excellent sophomore campaign at 9.9 yards per target but
needs to be a bit more sure-handed as 60.8% catch rate is a bit low for an
elite receiver. Christian Jones and DeAndrew White are back for good sized
roles in their senior year and provide a pair of options with great hands. Add
to that group five star sophomore TE O.J. Howard and this is a group that can
attack you in multiple ways just in the passing game. Ed Stinson and Jeoffrey
Pagan are gone but they are replaced by a pair of five star sophomores in A’Shawn
Robinson and Jonathan Allen who should pick up the slack with little problem.
Sandwiched in the middle is senior Brandon Ivory who is there to clog the middle
and create space for the linebackers. Behind those three are three four star
sophomores and a five star freshman Da’Shawn Hand who could see considerable
playing time in his freshman year. C.J. Mosley will leave a leadership void but
from a talent standpoint the linebackers will see little to no drop off. Every
starter will be a four star junior and followed on the depth chart by at worst
a four star sophomore and/or freshman with two five star’s stuck in the two
deep. Saban does a great job of coaching his DBs and this year’s talented group
should be no different. If Landon Collins and Nick Perry (coming off injury)
play up to their potential then this should be a secondary that at worst is
above average and at best is one of the 5-10 best in the country. This is the
most talented roster in the conference and the nation but they underwhelmed (slightly)
last season but should be championship quality once again. Head Coach: Nick Saban
(165-57-1) Since 2007
LSU
Tigers – (West, 10-3, 12, 5(N), 24.5%, 7,
67.8%) LES!!!! Prior
to the week one tilt with Wisconsin Les Miles has said that both Anthony
Jennings (So) and Brandon Harris (Fr) will play in the opener and although that
isn’t ideal having two supremely talented players at your disposal. Jennings
was bad in his limited action, completing 45% of his passes for 4.5 per
attempt. He obviously hasn’t completely blown away the staff to be splitting
duties with Harris but that’s not to say he hasn’t improved over the offseason.
Harris is an exciting athlete and the combination of him and Leonard Fournette
has the LSU faithful jazzed (get it because New Orleans is in Louisiana).
Jeremy Hill and Alfred Blue are gone and with them 1750 yards. Terrence Magee
is back for his senior season off a year in which he carried the ball at a 7.3
yard per attempt clip. Behind him Kenny Hilliard was good enough but at 4.5
yards per carry nothing to write home about. The headliner and game changer is
the aforementioned Fournette. A five star back who Fournette is thought of by
many to be the next Adrian Peterson and there have been whispers of Heisman
around the true freshman. I don’t want to go that far but am giddy to see what
this young man can do with such hype surrounding him. That rushing attack needs
to be because no one is back from the receiving corps. Now that is an exaggeration
but not a huge one. There are 33 catches back from last season and only 8 of
them are from returning receivers. Well Landry and Beckham Jr aren’t coming
through that door and that means the Tigers must replace 2300 yards of
production. Now some of that should come from the rushing attack but most of it
will need to come from the receivers so let’s take a look at who they will
likely be. It all starts with Travin Dural, he of 7 catches, will see a large
jump in his targets. Dural in his limited opportunity took advantage by
averaging 9.7 yards per target but he needs to improve his hands as a sophomore
to be truly effective. Joining Dural will be five star freshman Malachi Dupre
(awesome name) who has impressed this fall in camp and should be a big part of
the game plan from week 1 on. There are a litany of four stars and high three
stars in the wings as freshman but Dural, Dupre and a group of RS freshmen will
probably be the bell cows. The offense is a work in progress but a great
running game will certainly help stabilize the ship as the passing game and
quarterbacks come along early in the season. Three defensive linemen are gone
including both starting DTs Ego Ferguson and Anthony Johnson. To replace them
are high three star sophomore Christian LaCouture, five star RS freshman Frank
Herron, four star RS freshman Greg Gilmore and two four star freshmen who
should be able even if in a rotation to replace the production of Ferguson and
Johnson. On the outside both starters are back but they need to be much better
at create pressure off the edge, because 7 sacks isn’t going to cut it. Lamin
Barrow is gone at Will linebacker but he is replaced by Kwon Alexander a junior
former four star recruit who played the SAM last year. The new SAM backer will
be Lamar Louis another junior who will have sizeable but not unreplaceable
shoes to fill. This should be a solid unit and Alexander and MLB Welter should
be able to create some disruption in the backfield. I’m not going to go into too much detail in
the secondary because Miles and co. are ‘cruitin. Tre’Davious White will be a
stud as he move into his sophomore year and bookends with Jalen Mills. When you
look at the depth chart there are three four star sophomores, four four star
sophomores and a four star junior and well it’s just a back four loaded with
talent. The defense should be fine, if John Chavis has proven anything it is
that he can coach a defense. The running game will be spectacular but the
question is what if anything can they get out of the passing game. That being
said I’d be surprised if they are outside the top three in the west. Head Coach: Les Miles (123-45) Since 2005
Auburn Tigers – (West, 12-2,
14, 8(Y), 68.5%, 6, 62.2%) Malzahn had one hell of a reintroduction to the
SEC as he lead Auburn to a SEC championship and national title game in year one
at the helm. Returning to the plains for his senior season is Nick Marshall.
Marshall wasn’t the most accurate passer but at 59.4% completion percentage he
wasn’t bad and a 7.2 yards per attempt is plenty good when combined with his
1193 rushing yards. At 7.8 yards per attempt clip Marshall ran Malzahn’s
offense to a T in 2013. Marshall’s accomplice from 2013 is gone as Tre Mason
moved on to the St. Louis Rams. Replacing 1800 yards from any one player is
never easy but Auburn looks to be in pretty good position to do so. Seniors
Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant are back after averaging 6.7 and 9.8 yards
per carry last season. Both will surely see regression with an increase in
carries but both have pedigree (four star recruits) and some production to
suggest the running game won’t regress too much. Add to those two five star
freshman running back Roc Thomas and you have a possibility for this rushing
attack to not miss a beat. There is potential to have an even better passing
attack and threat in 2014. The top five receivers return lead by Sammie Coats
who had 902 yards and averaged 11.3 yards per target. He only caught 52.5% of
his targets but that was most likely due to the slight accuracy issues of
Marshall and an abundance of deep passes that have a lesser chance of
completion. WRs Ricardo Louis (Jr), Marcus Davis (So) and Quan Bray (Sr) who
all were between 6.5 and 7.5 yards per target as you would expect from a spread
attack with quick hit routes and 63.5% to 76.7% catch rates that you’d expect
from talented players on shorter routes. Along with them is senior tight end
C.J. Uzomah who went for 9.1 yards per target and gives them a creative option
from in-line in the passing game. The line loses Greg Robinson but returns a
bunch of experience and a 1st team All-SEC center. On defense, Dee
Ford is gone and with him 10.5 sacks and the next highest sack total belonged
to Carl Lawson with 4 who went down with an ACL injury in spring but is
attempting to be “healthy” for the season. Assuming Clawson doesn’t come back
at full health or at all there is talent at DE but it’s mostly unproven.
Starter senior LaDarius Owens is back but at 5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks he’s going to
have to produce at a level he hasn’t shown yet in his college career. The
highest upside may be sophomore four star Elijah Daniel who in limited time and
just six tackles had 3 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. The new starting DT should be five
star sophomore Montravius Adams and a group of talented young players that
should be just fine in replacing those who left. The Linebackers should be very
good as well in the 4-2-5. Both are back and both are junior starters returning
from last season. Cassanova McKinzy is a former four star and Kris Frost is a
former five star. Between them they need a bit more presence in the backfield
but are solid options on a very good front six. The secondary loses a couple
starters and a back-up at both safety positions but with very good recruiting
and a shutdown corner back this group is very much capable of picking up the
slack and being just as good in 2014 as they were in 2013. Jonathan Mincy is
the key cog with 15 passes defensed but only 1 INTs should have a much more “productive”
2014 as far as takeaways are concerned. Auburn will be very good again in 2014
with good coaching but the close game luck is almost assuredly going to run out
and that may doom them to a slightly underwhelming season in some eyes. Head
Coach: Gus Malzahn (21-5) Since 2013
Georgia
Bulldogs – (East, 8-5,
15, 5(N), 72.9%, 10, 75.5%) Aaron Murray is gone, but Hunter Mason was
solid in a fill in role last season. Mason completed 61% completion percentage,
an acceptable 7.8 yards per attempt and unfortunately a 6.8% sack rate. The
best news for Mason is that Todd Gurley is back and should be the focal point
of the offense. Gurley rushed for 6 yards a carry and almost a thousand yards
in only 165 carries. An explosive runner Gurley is one of the best backs in the
nation and should take a lot of pressure of Mason and the pass game. Keith
Marshall is back off an injury that put a damper on the preseason hype around
the pairing of Gurley and Marshall. This year add in sophomore Brendan Douglas
and the Georgia backfield may be the deepest in the country and that doesn’t
even consider five star freshman Sony Michel. Wide receiver should be loaded as
well. Malcolm Mitchell is back after missing 2013 injured, along with seniors
Chris Conley and Michael Bennett who both averaged at least nine yards a carry
and were sure handed. If they stay healthy this receiving corps will be very
good. If they don’t junior Justin Scott-Wesley, four star sophomore Reggie
Davis and sophomore Blake Tibbs are all talented in waiting for their
opportunity. Defense looks every bit as good as the offense does. Only two
linemen are gone from last season. DEs Garrison Smith, a starter and DE John
Taylor. The good news is despite Smith’s departure the other starter at end is
still there and the junior Sterling Bailey saw plenty of time last year and
should fill in nicely. NG is a bit shawllow with just junior Chris Mayes who
missed two starts and senior Mark Thornton who didn’t see much time on the
field. If Mayes gets injured again it will be interesting to see how Richt and
company respond. Linebacker returns all four starters and the entire two deep
which suggests that this will be a great group. The four starters combined for
269.5 tackles, 37.5 TFLs and 16 sacks and should build on that number with
Jordan Jenkins in his junior year and Leonard Floyd growing and building off
his freshman season. With a strong front seven the secondary should be able to
weather some growing pains as they replace two starters and a plethora of depth
chart players. If the group of RS freshmen can live up to the four star hype I
think new coordinator Jeremy Pruitt should have plenty to work with to make
this defense a heck of a unit. Overall there are some big questions, mainly,
health, QB and DB but there is enough residual talent to presume this should be
a very good Georgia team again this season.
Head Coach: Mark Richt (126-45) Since
2001
South
Carolina Gamecocks – (East, 11-2, 14,
8(N), 75.4%, 6, 68.8%) Hatin’ Ass Spurrier is back for another year at the
helm of the Gamecocks. Connor Shaw is gone and despite an unheralded career he
was a pretty solid quarterback. Dylan Thompson steps in, he improved his
accuracy in 2013 but he was still much too inconsistent at 58% completion
percentage. He was however very adept at avoiding sacks and that’s a skill
along with another improvement in history that portends good things. The good
news for Spurrier and Thompson is Mike Davis is back. At 5.8 yards per carry
Davis rushed for almost 1200 yards last season and should be one of the best
backs this side of Gurley in the SEC. Behind Davis are juniors Shon Carson (4.2
y/c) and Brandon Wilds (5.1 y/c) should be deep enough that an injury to Davis
would be bad but not catastrophic. Bruce Ellington is gone and with him a
reliable target with good hands and incredibly YAC (yards after catch). The
good news is the corps of receivers is full of upperclassmen. Seniors Damiere
Byrd and Nick Jones are back, Byrd being the big play threat whose catch rate
at 54% is down because of deep balls and iffy hands and Jones who was the sure
handed possession type but wasn’t a big play threat. Joining them and possibly
the most important cog may be Shaq Roland. Rolland caught 62.5% of his targets
and went for 11.4 yards per target. With an increased workload he should be
able to at least replace part of Ellington along with Byrd. The other
interesting piece is junior TE Jerell Adams who went for 10.4 yards per target
in limited attempts last season. On the defensive line Clowney is gone and
although his production wasn’t quite what we were expecting last year, offenses
won’t need to double, triple and chip one of your ends every single play. That
being said I think because of the Clowney effect I think the production of
Quarles and Sutton are eminently replaceable. The other good news is that a lot
of players got good playing time in 2013 and although it’s a young line it’s
experienced. J.T. Surratt should retain his starting spot this year after a 4
TFLs and 1.5 sacks. DE should be a rotation of four juniors and sophomores who
all were high three stars and showed flashes of good production last season. DT
should be deep with Surratt and three players including two former four stars
filling out the two deep. The entirety of the linebacking corps is back
combined with high four star freshman Bryson Allen-Williams this should be one
of the best and stoutest units in the country let alone the conference, led by
Skai Moore. Moore the WLB had 43 tackles and four INTs as a freshman and should
only get better. In the secondary, the safeties should be stellar with the
entire two deep being back and experience. The problem is a good secondary
loses the top three corners from last season and only two players have
returning experience. The good news is there are two high three star corners
waiting in the wings and three four star freshman who were brought on campus
and may be able to work into a rotation based on talent alone. The defense
should be very good once again, with an extremely talented linebacking corps, a
line that could be better than expected and a secondary that will have great
safety play and needs young players to step up outside. The offense should be
good behind a very good run game with Davis and Dylan Thompson has enough
promise to make you think the offense shouldn’t take too much of a step back.
This looks like a division winning squad and a potential conference champ, but
the latter will assuredly need everything to break right. Head Coach: Steve Spurrier
(219-79-2) Since 2005
Mississippi
Rebels – (West, 8-5, 15, 6(Y), 57.8%, 9,
81.7%) Dr. Bo, is back for another sesason at the helm for the Ole Miss
offense under the tutelage of Hugh Freeze. Bo completed 64.8% percent of his
passes for 6.9 yards per attempt. Being a mobile quarterback Dr. Bo takes a lot
of sacks (5.2% sack rate) and needs to learn to get rid of the ball when
leaving the pocket. Along with Bo’s passing is his rushing at 4.8 yards per
carry he is an effective threat as a QB but not as explosive as some runners we
have seen in the SEC. Joining Bo in the backfield are Juniors Jalen Walton and
I’Tavius Mathers. Walton averaged 4.7 yards per attempt in 2013, compared to
Mathers and his 5.9 he wasn’t nearly as effective. If we include Mark Dodson in
this race at 5.6 yards per attempt, Walton looks like at best the second best
running back option and quite possibly the third best option in the backfield. Walton
for his part was by far the best back on the team at 8.7 yards per target
compared to Mathers 6 yards a target. The receiving corps lost three of the top
five WRs including Donte Moncrief but they return a five star sophomore (Laquon
Treadwell), a former four star senior with a 70% catch rate (Vince Sanders),
and four star sophomore slot receiver (Quincy Adeboyejo). Of those with 20
catches or more only Sanders and sophomore TE Evan Engram had greater than 6.5
yards per catch. That isn’t too concerning as the offensive system is based on
quick passes and options to put the defense in poor position. Treadwell should
be the key. He was good as a freshman, but if he can become an even better
playmaker in year two no one will miss Donte Moncrief. A very good run defense
line loses it’s starting DEs, but has ridiculous depth in the middle which
should keep the run stopping level high. The key to it all is sophomore phenom
DT Robert Nkemdiche, a five star prospect he recorded 29.5 tackles, 8 TFLs and
2 sacks in his freshman season in the SEC. The biggest question is pass rush.
Last year’s line only had 12 sacks all year, but only lost 4 which could be a
signal that there is growth in the front four. If the pass rush isn’t there
that limits what can be done in the back seven on passing downs. Even with this
issues this should still be a very good front if only because of Nkemdiche.
Serderius Bryant is back for his senior year after 65 tackles (12.5 TFLs) in
just 11 games last year. Fellow senior D.T. Shackleford also returns at MLB
after 32.5 tackles last year (7.5 TFLs). The two of them should be able to
batten down the linebacking corps and produce behind a stout defensive line.
The secondary should be one of the best in the conference. After finishing 27
against the pass they return the top seven DBs from last season and any
improvement up front is going to make this passing defense even better. It all
hinges on FS Cody Prewitt, with 60.5 tackles and 13 passes defensed his control
of the deep middle will be the controlling feature of the defense. This could be
Ole Miss’s season to make some noise. With the good recruiting classes
recently, they have a couple year window, but Dr. Bo is in his senior year along
with some key cogs in the back seven which means the Rebels need to not waste
what looks like their best team since Eli left. Head Coach: Hugh Freeze
(45-18) Since 2012
Texas
A&M Aggies – (West, 9-4,
15, 6(N), 35.4%, 9, 59.7%) Johnny Manziel is gone but Kevin Sumlin is still
there and fills the Manziel shoes with four star sophomore Kenny Hill is an
accurate passer and fleet of foot and should fit into Sumlin’s philosophy just
fine and with the returning talent, how much of a drop off will there be. The
backfield around Hill should be experienced and at worst not a hindrance to a
good to great offense. Tra Carson (Jr), Trey Williams (Jr) and Brandon Williams
(Jr) are an excellent trio. Carson saw the most carries and had the worst yards
per carry at 5.3 yards per carry, Trey Williams had four less carries but
averaged 7 yards per carry and did a great job of taking advantage of good
blocking. Lastly, Brandon Williams had 44 carries and averaged 6.1 yards per
carry and makes up a good trio. Running back brings back a bunch of talent but
wide receiver got hit hard by attrition. Mike Evans is gone after being one of
the most dominant receivers in the country. With Evans, Derel Walker and Travis
Labhart who combined for 1444 yards are also gone. Returning to catch passes
from Kenny Hill are, last year’s second most targeted receiver Malcome Kennedy.
Kennedy had a 70% catch rate, 7.7 yards per target and 650 yards receiving and
should be suited well enough for the number one role. To pick up the slack are
a pair of four star sophomores, LaQuvionte Gonzalez and Edward Pope, who need
to take a step forward in their second year in the system. Behind that are a RS
freshman high four star Kyrion Parker, five star freshman Speedy Noil (watch
him) and four star freshman Frank Iheanacho. This should be a good receiving
corps this year and a potentially great one next year. Jake Matthews is gone
but Ogbuehi moves to LT and the rest of the line should be very good and very
experienced and the third straight very good line in College Station. The
defense shouldn’t get much worse this year and the level of talent they brought
in should mean at worst a slight rise in level of play and for the sake of
A&M a nice little jump in production. On the line, a bunch of sophomores got
considerable playing time last year in the A&M defense and that experience
should be a net positive this season and beyond. Juniors and sophomores
populate the two deep headlined by four star sophomore RUSH end Deshon Hall.
The biggest impacts could be four star sophomore NG Hardreck Walker who needs
to be a force at the one technique if this line is going to be better. There is
hope abound on the line with another class of four and five star players coming
in the talent says this is a group that is trending up. The linebackers better
hope that the line gets better otherwise there will be a lot of tackles available
for players that haven’t seen bulk field time. The linebackers should be all
high three star sophomores and good players but will they gel early and be good
enough to fill the gaps if the line doesn’t produce? The secondary should be
pretty good with the duo of Deshazor Everett and De’Vante Harris at CB and
Howard Matthews at safety, the group of which had 27 passes defensed, six of
which were INTs. Whomever fills the open safety role is going to be an
upperclassman with good pedigree. Behind that the two deep is filled with
talented sophomores and intriguing freshmen suggesting this should be a pretty
good unit. The defense should get better but it is dependent on growth from a
young front seven and especially a front four that hasn’t shown great pass rush
ability. The offense is going to be very good again and should see the
assimilation of Kenny Hill in a smooth transition. Overall a good team but in a
deep division it probably isn’t enough. Head
Coach: Kevin Sumlin (55-23) Since
2012
Florida
Gators – (East, 4-8, 14, 7(Y), 69.3%, 7,
67.2%) What to do with Florida? Muschamp has been here since 2011 and
oversaw a complete collapse after a better than expected 2012. 2013 was bad
even before the loss to Georgia Southern and that was the cherry on top of the injury
and shit sundae that was last season. Kurt Roper was brought in to run the
offense and at worst should be an upgrade to the group of monkeys typing
Shakespeare that called the 2013 plays. Roper and Muschamp have named Jeff
Driskel (Sr) the starter and there are some things in Driskel’s favor. 69%
completion percentage, 6.8 yards per attempt are both good numbers although the
later isn’t exactly stellar. If Roper can bring some of the productivity that
his Duke offense had Driskel good be productive if not spectacular behind
center for Florida this year. A trio of running backs are back for 2014, senior
Mack Brown, sophomore Kelvin Taylor and junior Matt Jones are all back and at
least for Taylor there is optimism. 4.6 yards per carry in your freshman year
in the SEC behind an oddly inept offensive line should be considered a positive
for any back and in a good enough 4.3 for Jones and you might have a halfway
decent running game in Gainesville this season. No receiver had more than 550
yards or 40 catches and that is partially to blame on equal parts, poor QB
play, poor offensive line play and questionable playcalling. The roster is
loaded with talent, much of it blue chip but of the top three returning WRs no
one had a catch rate below 66% but only Quinton Dunbar (9.3) had greater than
5.1 yards per target. The passing game can’t be worse and with Roper at the
helm has a lot of talent and room to grow. As we move to the defense remember
that Florida had an NSFW level of injuries on defense in 2013. Dom Easley was
lost after playing in 3 games and only two line starters played in all 12.
There is however talent galore in the front four for Florida. Former five
stars, BUCK end Dante Fowler Jr and DT Jonathan Bullard are back after leading
the line in tackles last year. Fowler is going to be the spark that ignites the
defense after a 10.5 TFLs and 3.5 sack sophomore year. If he can disrupt the
pass even more as a junior he will be one of the best linemen in the country.
Seniors Leon Orr and Darious Cummings are back to split time at NT and should
be just as stout as 2013 when they combined for 31 tackles and 3.5 sacks. At DE
the competition is a high three star sophomore (Bryan Cox Jr), a four star
sophomore (Joey Ivie), a four star RS freshman (Jordan Sherit and a four star
freshman (Gerald Willis). That combination should produce at least one and more
likely multiple excellent rotation options both at DE and BUCK. Inside to back
up the three previously listed are two four star RS freshman and two four star
freshman. This front should be really good if it only sniffs its collective
potential with the opportunity to be so much more. Two starters return at LB
and both had at least 41 tackles but neither was a disruptive force behind the
line and that’s a bit of a concern. They made stops but if you’re only making
plays behind your own defensive line that’s a problem. At SAM linebacker a
couple of highly touted sophomores have the opportunity to add that spark but
even without the disruption in the backfield this should be a stout and
experienced linebacking corps. Five star sophomore Vernon Hargreaves III is
back and should be paired with four star RS freshman Marcell Harris or five
star freshman Jalen Tabor and this should be a very secondary once again but
they just need to play up to their talent level and this is a top 20 at worst
secondary and defense. Overall the offense is the key for Florida if Kurt Roper
can work his magic Florida should rebound, maybe not all the way, but most of
the way. Head Coach: Will Muschamp (22-16) Since 2011
Mississippi
State Bulldogs – (West, 7-6,
16, 8(Y), 82.4%, 8, 81.4%) I’ll admit I’m not sure I will ever have the
preseason ranking of the Mississippi State right. But with 80% of the
production returning on both sides and Dak Prescott coming back I think they
deserve to be in the tier of dark horses and dream crushers. Dak is bak. (I’m
sorry I couldn’t help it) And that is the main source of optimism. After
sharing snaps during 2013 with Tyler Russel the job is all Dak’s and he needs
to improve. In 2014 Dak is going to need to improve his consistency, especially
against above average defenses, from his 58.4% completion percentage and with
that should come an increase in his yards per attempt from 6.8. Dak didn’t take
saks (I promise I’ll stop) last season and that ability could be key in keeping
him healthy and Miss State pulling upsets. Dak is also the leading returning
rusher, with 7.1 yards per carry and around 900 yards on 125 carries he should
be an explosive element but what else is there in the run game? Josh Robinson
is back after rushing for 5.9 per carry in 2013 he should assume the lead role
where he will be spelled by sophomore Ashton Shumpert who ran for 4.1 yards a
carry but doesn’t have that explosive element to make something out of nothing.
So the combination of Robinson and Prescott should be pretty solid in the run
game but who’s on the receiving end for the Bulldogs? The top four options from
2013 are back. And the only one that doesn’t inspire much is senior Robert
Johnson who despite having the second most targets only averaged 6.7 per target
which was lowest among the four with 45 targets or more by at least a half
yard. Senior WR Jameon Lewis is a speedy undersized option that went for 9.1
yards per target last season. Sophomore WR De’Runnya Wilson is the big 6’5”
target that had a productive freshman year and with better hands should be a
great weapon for Prescott. Add in there senior TE Malcolm Johnson and his 8.1
yards per target and you have a pretty solid group of pass catchers for Dak to
get better throwing to. If the top group falters there are a gaggle of high
three star sophomores waiting in the wings for their shot. On defense, woo hoo
hoo is this iteration of the always stingy Dan Mullen defense gonna be fun up
front. Only DE Denico Autry is gone of the major producers from last year’s
group that was 19th in F+ and 18 yards per game. The front four is
populated with four seniors, a junior and three sophomores and they are all
looking to build on a pretty exciting 2013. DE Preston Smitih (Sr) and DT Chris
Jones (So) are back after a combined 13.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks and are joined by
a pair of former four star seniors who had 4.5 TFls and a sack combined. The
replacement for Autry is either high three star sophomore A.J. Jefferson who
had 4 TFLs and 2 sacks in a back-up role or junior Ryan Brown who had 2.5 TFLs
and 1 sack in even more limited time. If they continue to grow and coalesce
this should be a hell of a front four rotation once again and the basis for one
hell of a defense (note that one I took from section 6 of the Bill Connelly preview).
Behind them Deontae skinner is gone after a very good 2013 but that shouldn’t
hurt too badly. Benardick McKinney is back after 56 tackles, 7 TFLs and 3.5
sacks. Matthew Wells is back for his senior season after 39 tackles and 6 TFLs
and a couple sophomores who saw enough time to get 27 tackles a piece and a
combined 7.5 TFLs and 2 sacks. (Beniquez Brown and Richie Brown) This
linebacking corps should be as good or better as a group of young players
continue to grow. Much Like the linebackers the secondary is losing one starter
from last season and once again I am not too worried about the loss. Justin Cox
should fill the role just fine and did well in fill in work in 2013. SS
Kendrick Market is an aggressive player and a tackling machine and should be
even better in his junior season. Corner back goes four deep with experience
from last season led by Taveze Calhoun and Jamerson Love who combined for 17
passes defensed and should be lockdown options on the outside. The longer I
went into this preview the more I liked what I saw but until they bust through
it there is always a glass ceiling on the Bulldogs but 2014 could be the year
they put real fear back into the SEC West once again. Head Coach: Dan Mullen
(36-28) Since 2009
Editor’s Note: The esteemed Mr. Kriha
joined again to write about 2013's second biggest surprise.
Missouri
Tigers – (East, 12-2, 9, 5(N), 35.4%, 4,
52.1%) One year ago Mizzou shocked the world
by going 11-1 in the regular season and making it to the championship game in
toughest division in the land despite being a relatively new entry to the
conference. The Tigers went on to lose the SEC championship to national
runner-up Auburn but went on to beat #13 Oklahoma State in their bowl game. The
one regular season loss was a double overtime loss to South Carolina, the best
team in the state despite what Clemson fans would have you believe, in a game
started by then backup Quarterback Maty Mauk. One-T Maty entered the Georgia
game after an injury to future Penn St Head Coach James Franklin and held on
for the win and then proceeded to go 3-1 as a starter in Franklin’s stead. Mauk
loses top wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham whose history with drugs and
pushing women down stairs earned him a spot on Oklahoma’s roster, but he does
have a receiver named DeSean which is a very promising sign. The defense was
decimated by the loss of several All-SEC players including the first openly
homosexual NFLer, Michael Sam who is the only one to publicly acknowledge how
much he likes getting in piles of men wearing spandex even though we know they
all like it. The defense will need some youngsters to step up and while Mauk
has been the focus of most people’s attention, it’s the defensive unit that
will determine if Mizzou can back up its performance from a year ago. The
Tigers have a couple tough road tests in Columbia and College Station as well
as a marquee home game against Georgia, but can pad their record at home
against the likes of the South Dakota Jackrabbits and the perennially awful
Indiana Hoosiers. The highlight of their schedule is a sightseeing trip to
Toledo to see the infamous Jambulance (http://www.tailgatingideas.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/jambulance_parked.jpg). My prediction: Tigers and their ridiculous
array of uniforms take a step back from last year and go 9-3 in the regular
season and earn an appearance in the prestigious Belk Bowl. Head Coach: Gary Pinkel (175-100-3) Since 2001
Tennessee
Volunteers – (East, 5-7,
10, 5(Y), 67.7%, 5, 69.1%) Butch Jones enters year two at the helm of
Tennessee and is coming off an offseason in which they brought in a top ten
recruiting class and started what looks like a top ten class for 2015. Looking
toward the 2014 season Justin Worley is back under center but needs to stay
healthy and be much more consistent in his abilities. 55.6% completion
percentage isn’t going to do much for the offense, but if he can continue to
not take sacks behind a brand new offensive line then he should be at worst a
net positive. Joining Worley in the backfield are seniors Marlin Lane and
Deanthonie Summerhill. Lane returns with the most carries from last year at 101
and did well with his opportunity, putting up 5.3 yards per carry. Summerhill only
had 20 carries but was productive at 5.8 yards per carry. Even if both lose
some production with increased workloads they should be productive enough to
stabilize the offense. Jalen Hurd is the ace in the hole for the running game,
if the five star freshman can contribute at a high level in year one this rush
attack could be much better than just keeping the offense a float. A young
receiver corps returns, talented and deep. Pig Howard (Jr), Marquez North (So),
Josh Smith (So) and Jason Croom (So) are back and should grow but consistent QB
play and continued playmaking by North and Croom are needed to make this
passing game truly something scary. I single out North and Croom because they
were both over 8 yards a target last year. The entire offense and the growth of
younger players is based on how well the offense line becomes a cohesive unit
with no returning starters. There is young talent here with a gaggle of four
stars and high three star recruits but there are just six career starts and
five of those are LG Marcus Jackson. As we progress to the other side of the
ball the defensive line falls into the same trap as the offensive line. Six
players who saw time are gone including the top five players from last year’s
line. The good news is 2012 starter Curt Maggitt is back after missing all of
2013 with an injury, but he produced 5 TFLs and 2 sacks that two years ago.
There are a couple bright spots returning, well maybe not bright but there is
some experience combing back. Maggit we already talked about. Four star
sophomore NG Danny O’Brien had 3 TFLs and a sack in a back-up role as a
freshman. Fellow sophomore Corey Vereen had a sack in nine appearances as the
fourth DE his freshman year. And then there are four four star recruits coming
into the program as well as two high three stars that should at least challenge
for some playing time. Linebacker lost a lot as well with four of the top six
performers no longer with the program but senior A.J. Johnson returning after a
83 tackle season should be a rock on which to build the front seven. Joining
him with time from last season is sophomore Jalen Reeves-Martin who played in
11 games but didn’t see much time behind Dontavis Sapp as a freshman. The
biggest question here is who plays SLB but there is some talent in the wings. The
secondary returns every starter, but do lose their nickel back (NB) and back up
free safety. If the four starters can build off a very good performance last
season then this could be a good secondary hampered at least early by a poor front
four. Also they brought in five four star DBs and that should be a real boon
for them real soon. Tennessee could be alright this year but should show signs
of proper coaching and top ten recruiting in 2015 and beyond. Head Coach: Butch Jones (55-34) Since 2013
Arkansas
Razorbacks – (West, 3-9,
15, 7(Y), 81.1%, 8, 66.7%) Bert’s first season in the SEC didn’t quite go
as well as he expected. That’s partially contributed to a team not suited to
his style, the known teambuilding woes of Petrino and a loaded SEC west. The
task doesn’t get easier in 2014 but the roster is starting to look familiar. Brandon
Allen is back, much to the chagrin of the Hogville. Allen completed 49.6% of
his passes last season for 5.6 yards per attempt. The good news? He was only sacked
on 2.6% of his drop backs. In a vacuum Allen is what you want in Bielema’s
system a junior four star quarterback back for his second year under center but
that assumes a level of success in the SEC that Allen hasn’t come close to
approaching. If things get bad there are two RS freshmen high three stars and
Rafe Peavey a four star freshman who could at least see some time to give the
fan base hope. As we move to running back we see a group reminiscent of the
Wisconsin backfields. Four Star sophomore Alex Collins returns for his
sophomore campaign looking to improve on his 5.4 yards per carry and 1026 yard
freshman campaign. He is the offense but he will share the load with junior
Jonathan Williams who ran for 900 yards on 6 yards a carry. The third man in
the rotation is sophomore Korliss Marshall who broke away for 8.6 yards a carry
on a couple handful of carries last season. Who’s going to catch passes? The
better question is do we know who has the talent with the inaccuracy of Allen.
If Allen can even marginally improve let alone become much more consistent WR
Keon Hatcher and TE Hunter Henry look to have a bit of talent to make plays.
Henry despite a catch rate under 57% still was able to average 8.3 yards per
target and Hatcher at 53% was at 6.8 yards per target. A couple more
completions and both are at least a reasonable threat that defenses need to
accommodate for. The line is good young and talented and should be just fine
and continues to show the molding of the Hogs like the Badgers. Three of the
top five linemen are gone from a unit that wasn’t very good, everyone else is
back. And oh boy are there a lot of sophomores that saw playing time in 2013.
Senior DE Trey Flowers is back after 13.5 TFLs and 5 sacks and a fair amount of
passing game disruption and is joined by sophomore DT Darius Phillips who looks
like he could be one of the better young DTs in the conference. Aside from
those two there is a group of four sophomore, three of them DEs and a junior DT
who showed flashes last season but were either too young or didn’t get much
rotation time. IF the youth grows into new roles, there isn’t much place to go
but up for this unit outside the pass rush game but this unit might still be a
year off. The linebackers should be solid. Seniors Braylon Mitchell and
Martrell Spaight should be holding down the SLB and MLB respectively. The stud
could be sophomore Brooks Ellis who had 22.5 tackles, 2 TLFs and .5 sacks in
limited time behind Jarrett Lake and shouldn’t have too much trouble being more
of a force in the backfield with increased playing time. This could be a pretty
good unit but may need to big up too much slack from an inexperienced front.
The secondary should be the best part of this defense. FS Eric Bennet is gone
after 54 tackles and 4 passes defensed, but he is the only loss from the
secondary. Non-coincidently this is the most senior unit on the defense with
two senior starters a junior and a sophomore with two juniors, one senior and a
sophomore in the two deep. IF they can build off good disruption from last year
this could be a very good group on a defense that has a lot of holes. 2014 may
not see an increase in record but should be a step forward for Bielema and the
Hogs and set up for a bit of a breakthrough in 2015. Head Coach: Bret Bielema
(71-33) Since 2013
Vanderbilt
Commodores – (East, 9-4,
10, 7(N), 37.8%, 3, 48.4%) James Franklin has moved on from the Commodores
after reaching heights not glimpsed since the 40s. In comes Derek Mason,
Stanford defensive coordinator to help continue the success and build a lasting
program in the mold of Stanford. By all accounts Mason is a young, energetic
football crazed coach who has the passion and skills to do that at Vandy, but
I’m not convinced the transition is going to be smooth early on in the Mason
era. Year one of the Mason era starts with changes under center. Austyn
Carta-Samuels is gone and in steps sophomore Patton Robinette, a former three
star recruit who looked like a freshmen in the limited amount of snaps he saw
last season. If Robinette can increase his consistency while not losing the
deep ball and make smart decisions in the running game he could be a boon for
the new staff. That admittedly is a lot to ask from a sophomore. The running
back situation is a lot of good and little explosion. All three returning backs
were in the 4.5 yards per carry range and both Jerron Seymour (5’7”) and Brian
Kimbrow (5’8”) are undersized. Mason will probably try to model the offense off
Stanford and if that’s the case are undersized backs going to stand up to the
workload and stay healthy? The receiving corps is depleted with the departures
of Jordan Matthews and Jonathan Krause (2191 yards combined) there is a lot of
opportunity and a lot of questions. Into the void steps four star sophomore
Jordan Cunningham who was the third leading receiver on the team, had good
enough hands, but didn’t really flash as a down the field threat. Joining him
are Junior Kris Kentera who needs to work on hands consistency and high three
star sophomore Latevius Rayford who caught two thirds of his targets and
flashed some deep threat ability. The line is experienced heading into year one
but the production in the running game didn’t show up last year and growth must
occur in the unity. The defense is in transition from 4-3 under Franklin to the
3-4 under Mason but they seem to be in good shape up front much like Wisconsin
last season under Gary Anderson. Adam Butler returns for his sophomore year and
moves to the 3-4 DE and at 6’5” 305 should be perfectly suited for his new
role. Inside 6’4” 295 senior Barron Dixon fits more of a DE build but fellow
senior Vince Taylor at 6’1” 310 should be an anchor. The breakout inside could
be Nifae Lealao at 6’5” 314 four star freshman who could be THE anchor for
three or four seasons insisde for Mason. Across from Butler if it isn’t Dixon
there may be a rotation of similarily younger players both at 280 and 6’3” to
6’4” in Torey Agree (So) and Jay Woods (RSFr). There are a lot of linebackers
on this team… based on depth chart there are 14 linebackers on the roster. The
good news is there is a lot of experience. The bad news is that they don’t have
a lot in this system but converted DEs Kyle Woestmann and Caleb Azubike
combined for 10 sacks last season and if they adjust to rushing from the
upright position they should be beastly off the edge. Inside Darreon Herring is
back and had a heck of a season in any scheme and Jake Sealand showed flashes
in limited time in the middle and will need to step into a much bigger role
this season. Rebuilding while transitioning has pros and cons. The pros are you
don’t have to gradually transfer a unit to the new system but the cons are that
there isn’t much seniority to work with. The Vandy secondary should be closer
to the pros than the cons the five returners who saw time last season are all
sophomores or juniors and the two deep is full of redshirt freshmen who are
high three star recruits. Overall this group may have growing pains from youth
but the cupboard is stocked well from the franklin era and the defense looks
primed to grow under Mason’s tutelage. Every unit has some challenges both on
offense and defense but even if 2014 is a rough year this is a team looking up
in the future. Head Coach: Derek Mason (0-0) Since New Hire
Kentucky
Wildcats – (East, 2-10,
16, 8(Y), 58.3%, 8, 74.3%) Year 0 of the Mark Stoops ear went like you’d
expect. While they build up the roster through recruiting there are going to be
bumps along the road but a top-20 recruiting class is a great start. Maxwell
Smith started last year, but was replaced by Jalen Whitlow who transferred out
of the program this offseason. Smith was the presumed starter, but this week
Mark Stoops announced that the week 1 job is going to Patrick Towles. Towles
redshirted last season after losing the starter competition to Smith/Whitlow
but came into camp and won the job over Smith and four star freshman Drew
Barker. All reports point to Towles growing over his year off and being the
best quarterback throughout camp. If Towles can improve upon the roughly 60%
completion percentage and 5.5 yards per attempt of Smith/Whitlow last season
this offense should be able to move from below average to at worst an average
or slightly above average product this year. The backfield is a bit decimated
but sophomore Jojo Kemp is back and with the growth curve from freshman to
sophomore looks primed to pop above 5 yards per attempt in 2014. The wildcard
here is how transfer Braylon Heard from Nebraska performs in the Kentucky
offense. Heard averaged 6.7 yards per carry on 52 carries for the huskers in
2012 and could be a boon for the backfield production. The receiving corps is
is a mix of youth and seniority and a mixed bag of alright production. Some of
this is definitely on the inconsistency at quarterback last season and some on
the offensive system but sub seven yards per target is pretty meh. Let’s look
toward the future though. Sophomores Ryan Timmons, Jeff Badet and Alexander
Montgomery are saw 25 or more targets and had 64% catch rates or better. With
continued growth all should be close to the 70% mark as they enter their junior
and senior seasons but may not be ready just yet to make the leap heading into
second year campaigns. Add in the two four star freshmen, Dorian Baker and
Blake Bone this is a passing game that should only be looking up in the future.
On the defensive line starting ends Alvin Dupree and Za’Darius Smith are back
for their senior season and are looking to build off a combined 16 TFLs and 13
sacks. Behind them is sophomore Jason Hatcher, a former four star, who had 3
TFLS and 2 sacks in just 9 games has to have the coaching staff intrigued about
what he can do as he continues to grow. The interior of the line is going to be
iffy though as none of the top three options return this season. In fact, there
was only one lineman on the squad that saw any game time at all. Those behind
and next to Mike Douglas on the depth chart don’t inspire much confidence as
they include 1 senior, 2 juniors and 2 redshirt freshmen, neither of whom was
highly touted coming out of high school. Linebacker has a wealth of experience
returning and should be solid enough but Avery Williamson’s 74 tackles aren’t
going to be replaced by one man. On a rebuilding team a wealth of experience in
one unit is always helpful. Much like the team as a whole, the secondary has
nowhere to go but up. The question is, with ten players returning who played
last year and sixty percent of those being upperclassmen how much improvement
can we expect with the same players on the field. All in all Kentucky is at
least a year from scaring people and two from doing major damage but there are
positive signs. Just not for 2014. Head
Coach: Mark Stoops (2-10) Since 2013
2014 Predicted Standings
East: 1) South Carolina 2) Georgia 3) Florida
4) Missouri 5) Tennessee 6) Vanderbilt 7) Kentucky
West: 1) Alabama 2) Auburn 3) LSU 4) Ole
Miss 5) Mississippi State 6) Texas A&M 7) Arkansas
The West is
stronger again than the east but South Carolina and Georgia are both more than
capable of knocking off any of the top four West teams. LSU and Florida are
interesting dark horses to watch as the season goes on, if LSU can stabilize at
QB and Florida can stop getting hurt and find an offensive identity both have
recruited well enough to be elite in conference and country.
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