This season I am doing something a little bit different with the weekly preview. I am still predicting all the top 25 games and games of interest to me and hopefully you, but I am also incorporating the number from a rating system I have been tinkering with the last couple of seasons. The numbers in the in the () after each team are the power rating numbers and I will use those to inform my picks. Hope you enjoy.
Thursday, August 28th, 2014:
#21 Texas
A&M (48.29) at #9 South Carolina (56.80) (HFA:4.85), 5:00 pm SEC
Network: This game is intriguing on a couple different levels. Both teams have to replace quarterbacks and natioanl stars. For A&M that is one and the same Johnny Manziel, who was both the most intriguing player on and off the field. South Carolina needs to replace Connnor Shaw and Jadeveon Clowney. To replace Shaw is Dylan Thompson who has all the tools and the confidence of the Ol' Ball Coach to replace Clowney will be a team effort but there is a deep group of talent to do it. I think this one is a bit of a slog but the A&M defense is the weakest unit on the field and the Gamecock defense should be good enough to hold the Aggie offense in check most of the game. Power Pick: South Carolina by 13.37 My Pick: South Carolina 24-21 Line: S Car -10.5
Boise State (21.79) vs #18 Ole Miss (45.16) (Atlanta), 7:00 pm ESPN: Boise State is in it's first game of it's first season without Chris Petersen at the helm since '05 and the first time without him on the sideline since '00. A tough game against a very good SEC squad will tell us a lot about how this team is going to look year one under Bryan Harsin. For Ole Miss, Dr. Bo is back for his senior year and at the helm of what is the best Rebel squad in some time. Hugh Freeze should have the offense rockin' and rollin' and the defense anchored by Robert Nkemdiche should slow down the Broncos Rushing attack. Power Pick: Ole Miss by 23.37 My Pick: Ole Miss 35-17 Line: Ole Miss -10 to -11
Saturday, August 30th, 2014:
Penn
State (25.26) vs UCF (26.88) (Dublin, Ireland), 7:30
am ESPN2: Penn State and UCF head to Dublin and give you some early morninng football to enjoy. UCF should be fun to watch if only to see how they replace Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson. The defense should be improved off a top 40 performance in 2013. Penn State has a distinct advantage with Chrsitian Hackenberg under center but Allen Robinson is gone and with sanctions a lack of experience on the offensive line may bring up unforseen depth issues. This one is a toss up by the numbers and one I could see going either way. Power Pick: UCF by 1.62 My Pick: UCF 17-13 Line: UCF -1 to -2
#5 Ohio
State (37.94) at Navy (32.87) (HFA:3.49), 11:00
am CBS Sports Net: Ohio State heads to Navy week one for a tricky test without Braxton Miller who is out for the year. At first blush to me this was a blowout but when my numbers say something this radically different I have to take another look. Navy returns a lot for an offense that is intricate and based on getting to know the feel. While Ohio State lost a lot on both sides of the ball, they do have a much improved defensive line. Secondary, quarterback and o-line are quesiton marks and if Navy can score on offense this could be uncomfortably close for The Ohio State University. Power Pick: Navy by 1.58 My Pick: Ohio State 24-17 Line: Ohio State -15 to -16.5
#7 UCLA (59.39) at Virginia (23.59) (HFA:3.19), 11:00 am ESPN: UCLA travels to Virginia in an early morning week 1 trap game. I'll explain... teams traveling from the west coast to the east coast suffer from jet lag and it affects the traveling team in a pretty significant way. I think UCLA still wins much like Oregon in last years opener, but I don't think it's affects them enough to lose the game, just the amount they dominate it. Power Pick: UCLA by 32.61 My Pick: UCLA 31-17 Line: UCLA -21
Rice (16.90) at #17 Notre Dame (38.30) (HFA:4.79), 2:30 pm NBC: Rice travels to Notre Dame to face a squad mired in a academic scandal. Three starters and a key back up are off the team but Notre Dame shouldn't have too much trouble with a Rice squad that is much less experienced than last year. Power Pick: Notre Dame by 26.19 My Pick: Notre Dame 21-10 Line: Notre Dame -21
FAU (9.17) at #22 Nebraska (27.36) (HFA:5.12), 2:30 pm BTN: What would have been the Pelini bowl is now one man and cat's vendetta against a school. FAU-Nebraska: This time it's personal. Power Pick: Nebraska by 23.31 My Pick: Nebraska 28-10 Line: Nebraska -22
Arkansas (26.98) at #6 Auburn (65.76) (HFA:4.84), 3:00 pm SEC Network: Bert and Hogville head to the plains to take on Malzahn and co. Arkansas should have a very good running game and be able to move the ball a bit, but the pass game could be close to non-existant if Brandon Allen doesn't improve this season. Auburn lost Tre Mason and Dee Ford but the pass game should be more dangerous and Arkansas isn't the team to exploit their flaws. Power Pick: Auburn by 43.61 My Pick: Auburn 42-20 Line: Auburn -19.5
#16 Clemson (39.34) at #12 Georgia (41.76) (HFA:5.13), 4:30 pm ESPN: Clemson-Georgia was the best game of opening weekend last season. Clemson outlasted Georgia on the strength of their defense and the solid play of Boyd and Watkins. Georgia lost Aaron Murray but get a bunch of players healthy in the receiving corps and Keith Marshall in the backfield to pair up with Todd Gurley. Clemson for it's part lost Boyd, Watkins and Bryant, but the defense should be the strength. If the defense is as good as expected this should be another barn burner in Athens. Power Pick: Georgia by 7.55 My Pick: Georgia 27-21 Line: Georgia -7.5
Louisiana Tech (-1.34) at #4 Oklahoma (54.96) (HFA:4.99), 6:00 pm: Two years ago this would have been one hell of a match up but since the departure of Sonny Dykes La Tech has done a similar nose dive to Cal. Oklahoma should romp and work out any of the kinks in the defense and passing game. Power Pick: Oklahoma by 61.28 My Pick: Oklahoma 42-3 Line: Oklahoma -38
Fresno State (22.57) at #15 USC (51.35) (HFA:4.32), 6:30 pm FOX: A rematch of last years bowl game see Fresno a much lesser version of that December team with the departure of Derek Carr. USC is rid of Kiffin but brough in eight win Steve. This should be an easy USC win as they are one of the most talented starting lineups in the country. Power Pick: USC by 33.11 My Pick: USC 45-10 Line: USC -21.5
#1 Florida State (58.94) vs Oklahoma State (30.15) (Arlington), 7:00 pm ABC: One of the headliners of the evening and the site for College Gameday is the showdown of the Seminoles and Cowboys. This would have been a hell of a game last season with a Cowboys defense that was severly underrated and an offense that was pretty darn good. With the losses on defense though Oklahoma State is going to need to make this a track meet to have a chance and Florida States have the guns for that type of game too. Power Pick: Florida State by 28.79 My Pick: 56-38 Line: Florida State -17.5 to -19
#14 Wisconsin (30.22) vs #13 LSU (39.21) (Houston), 8:00 pm ESPN: This is the game I'm most interested in on Saturday. Both teams have stellar running games, passing games that lost their producers and defenses that saw high levels of attrition. The biggest difference is LSU restocks with 4 and 5 star players and Wisconsin reloads with 3 stars. That being said Gordon-Fournette is going to be a hell of a show and this game is going to fly by. Power Pick: LSU by 8.99 My Pick: LSU 24-20 Line: LSU -4.5 to -5
#25 Washington (46.85) at Hawaii (1.27) (HFA:2.34), 9:30 pm CBS Sports Net: The late game from the islands and shouldn't be very close. Washington is a Pac-12 dark horse candidate with Chris Petersen at the helm and should trounce a Hawaii squad that is probably wondering how long their team will be together. Power Pick: Washington by 43.24 My Pick: Washinton 38-10 Line: Washington -17
Sunday, August 31st, 2014:
Utah
State (19.17) at Tennessee (20.91) (HFA:4.99), 6:00
pm SEC Network: This isn't the game with a top ten team in it but it is the more intriguing of the games on Sunday. CHUCKIE KEATON is back after falling to injury last season, he may not be all the way back to speed in game one but as Spener Hall (@edsbs) said last year, "Chuckie gonna fuck somebody up." Tennessee is at least a year off but there is talent and this game is at home which should give them the edge in a close contest. Power Pick: Tennessee by 6.74 My Pick: Tennessee 20-17 Line: Tennessee -6
SMU (6.38) at #10 Baylor (42.44) (HFA:3.4), 6:30 pm FOX Sports 1: The other game of note on Sunday is an in-state game between SMU and Baylor. SMU is in a rebuilding year under June Jones but should be back in a year or two. Baylor for it's part needs to prove it's healthy on offense and that it can fill holes on defense while maintiaining a level of play near where last saeason was. Power Pick: Baylor by 39.46 My Pick: Baylor 56-17 Line: Baylor -33
Monday, September 1st,
2014:
Miami
(FL) (35.80) at Louisville (33.11) (HFA:3.95), 7:00
pm ESPN: The last game of the weekend will set up the upcoming ACC season outside of Florida State. Miami comes in with a true freshman QB under center. Although that is something to pause over he is able to turn and hand off to Duke Johnson. Johnson is one of the ten best backs in the country and is the focal point of the offense. Louisville needs to replace Bridgewater and with Devonta Parker that is going to be much more difficult. The defense should be good and with Petrino at the helm the offense should be competent but I'm intriguied to see the transition from Strong to Petrino. Power Pick: Louisville by 1.26 My Pick: Louisville 21-20 Line: Louisville -3.5
No comments:
Post a Comment