Well here we go. A
couple weeks later this year because I wanted to finish my draft coverage
before I started my conference previews but here we are, inside of 100 days
‘til the season starts on September 3rd. We get our start this year
with the Sun Belt Conference.
Membership Changes
There were no
additions or subtractions as the last round of realignment settles in but
Appalachian State and Georgia Southern are now post season and conference title
eligible. That sets up a fun year 2 in
which the newcomers try to match their successes of year 1.
Coaching Changes
There was only one
coaching change in the Sun Belt this season and it was the departure of Larry
Blakeney. Troy had some struggles of late but let’s look at Blakeney’s success
moving Troy through the ranks to a respectable mid-major who put a very solid
amount of talent into the NFL and was the mid-major standard in the late 90’s
and earl 00’s. Blakeney is replaced by Neal Brown a former subordinate who saw
success as Texas Tech and last year Kentucky’s offensive coordinator. Brown has
work to do but a very good role model to success.
Recruiting
Arkansas State is the
class of the Sun Belt in recruiting in both consistency and high points. All of
the schools represented in the conference are below average but the Red Wolves
are at -.6 standard deviations below average with the next closest at -.84. The
next three teams are lumped pretty closely and have interesting tendency to hit
every other year with higher points (247Composite). Those three are Louisiana
(-.84), Texas State (-.89) and South Alabama (-1.06). Louisiana has the best
results even with a disappointing season last year. Texas State and South
Alabama still need work turning recruiting results into on-field results. New
Mexico State (-1.17), Troy (-1.17) and Idaho (-1.27) all have had horrid
results recently and Idaho and New Mexico State have been near the bottom of
Football Outsiders F/+ rankings every year. After that trio we have the
over-achievers; or more likely better coached teams who mold talent. ULM
(-1.29), Appalachian State (-1.30) and Georgia Southern (-1.53), the later had
surprising first seasons at the FBS level with Southern winning the conference
and App State bouncing back in a big way. The latter two also show huge improvements
in the last two recruiting classes with the FBS announcement and ascension. If
they keep that up they will be amongst the conference leaders in recruiting and
mainstays in the Sun Belt power struggle. Bringing up the bottom is Georgia
State (-1.56) who is still dealing with growing pains from starting their
program and transitioning to FBS. All-in-all the advantage is Arkansas State’s
and no one is close but App State and Georgia Southern should be challenging
that sole hold of the recruiting advantage over the next couple of cycles.
Team Previews
Team
| 2014 Record (SOS) | Returning Offensive Starters (QB) | %Yards Returning |
Returning Defensive Starters | %Tackles Returning | Line Starts Returning |
Head Coach | Hired | Career Record (Record W/ Team) |
Georgia Southern | 9-3 (125) | 5 (Y) | 77% | 7 | 71% | 20Willie Fritz | Hired 2014 | 146-65 (9-3)
We star where last
years finished for the Sun Belt with newcomer Georgia Southern shocking
everybody and going undefeated in the league. Southern wasn’t able to win the
championship or play in a bowl game but the league table says it all and this
was the only undefeated squad in the conference. So Willie Fritz heads into
year two with big expectations, a lot of returning players and a lot of
embarrassed (maybe?) teams gunning for them.
We start at the helm
of the offense with Kevin Ellison (6’0”, 190). Ellison led Fritz’s offense like
a virtuoso as a sophomore racking up 1000 yards through the air and 1108 yards
on the ground. If he can convert closer to 60% of his passes (predominately
deep shots) this offense will be an even more beastly trouble. The only glaring
weakness for Ellison is his propensity to put the ball on the turf. Ellison had
10 fumbles, but with good fumble luck and many being behind the line he only
lost 3. In case of injury, break glass, and let fellow junior Favian Upshaw (6’1”,
170) take over, as he did in lieu of Ellison, and you’ll still feel pretty good
about the offense. Joining Ellison in the backfield to return in 2015 are the
top two running backs from last season, junior Matt Breida (5’10”, 185) and
sophomore L.A. Ramsby (5’11”, 210). Breida was spectacular on his 171 carries
last season, gaining 1485 yards and scoring 17 touchdowns. Breida did this with
8.7 yards per carry and when he got five yards from his blocking he took 10. Ramsby
scored 12 TDs and rushed for almost 700 yards but he will need to become more
refined to build off his 4.7 yards per carry in 2014. The only other running
back on the roster is true freshman Wesley Fields (6’0”, 195), a three star
recruit, who falls in between Breida and Ramsby physically but will more than
likely be called upon in spot duty this season. As you’d expect from an option
based attack the receivers are deemphasized but play a key role in taking the
top off a defense and creating hesitation at the second and third levels. B.J.
Johnson (6’1”, 210) was the top targeted option last season at 41 targets, and,
as is often the case, Johnson had a catch rate that was sub 60%. His 56.1%
catch rate isn’t so bad when you consider this offenses vertical passing
tendencies. The roster does lose two players with 30 or so targets, who will
need to be replaced. The problem is with no one getting more than 10 targets on
the rest of the roster, those replacements will be difficult to find. The first
candidate is junior Montay Crockett (6’0”, 180), who had 6 targets last season
and managed 12 yards per target. That’s great but it’s a miniscule sample size.
Behind Crockett and Johnson you have to look for upside and on this roster that
means young guys with recruiting hype. Sophomore Kameron Maye (6’0”, 175) a
mid-three star, freshman Obe Fortune (6’1”, 180) a three star, and D’Ondre
Glenn (6’5”, 210) a high two star all fit that mold and will be called upon to
function as depth and replenishment of Ellison’s deep threats. The line was
wonderful last season and a lot of starts and talent are gone, but the news up
front isn’t all bad. Three players are back with starts under their belts and a
group of three, three star recruits are coming off of redshirt seasons. Three
of the five linemen should be above the 300 pound mark and no one should be
sub-275. This offense should keep on ticking this season and the only real
limiter of upside is line depth and not talent.
Across the ball, the
defensive line brings back much more returning talent than the offensive line. The
Southern 4-2-5 brings back three starters from the front four and six of the
top eight tackle producers. The headliners are incumbent 1 technique, former
high three star junior, Jay Ellison (6’1”, 305) and junior defensive end
Bernard Dawson (6’1”, 245). The pair combined for 55.5 tackles, 10 for a loss
and 5 sacks. The highest upside may be new 3 tech starter Jamal Johnson (6’2”,
245), who had 3.5 TFLs and 3 sacks in only 9 games last season and tied for 3rd
most tackles of all the linemen. The last end spot looks to be between a pair
of seniors, Quaun Daniels (6’1”, 23) and Lennie Richardson (6’1”, 255) who
combined for 30 tackles, 7 TFLs and 2.5 sacks, and sophomores Ryan George (6’1”,
240), who had 3.5 sacks in 7 games, and Ross Alexander (6’2”, 230) who saw
limited time last year. Backing up inside are Jonathan Battle, Jr. (6’1”, 285)
a 3 tech who had 3 TFLs and 2 sacks in 6 games and 1 tech Darrius Sapp (6’1”,
320) a three star sophomore who saw time in 5 games and adds nice depth and
girth. The remaining depth is a compilation of three star freshmen for the
three deep. Behind that depth, Mike linebacker Edwin Jackson is gone after a 79
tackle season but there’s experience to fill the gap. Chris DeLaRosa (6’1”,
220) is back after seeing time in 7 games last season as a freshman but will
need to be more productive as a tackler. Next to him will be Antwione Williams
(6’3”, 245) a will who racked up 55.5 tackles, 8 for a loss including 3 sacks
and an impressive 4 passes broken up and 2 forced fumbles. The depth isn’t all
that impressive but they’ve got good size and should be able to lean on an
experienced front four. The front six is experienced but the play of the five
is where the pressure lies in a 4-2-5. Both starting safeties are back in the
form of seniors Antonio Glover (6’1”, 195) and Matt Dobson (6’2”, 200) who
combined for 100.5 tackles, 8.5 for a loss, 4 INTs, 5 passes broken up, and 2
forced fumbles. The biggest attrition is from the corners and nickel back. Only
one corner starter is back from last year and that’s junior Darius Jones, Jr.
(5’9”, 180) who had 5 passes defensed. Joining Jones will be Rayquan Sam (5’9”,
180) who may be better off as a nickel corner because of his size, Caleb
Williams (5’9”, 170), or a duo of three star freshmen Jessie Liptrot (6’0”,
175) or Christian Matthew (6’3”, 175). Overall the safety play should be fine
but there are serious question about the corners that could be mitigated by
pressure from the front four and the ability of the staff to coach up young
talent.
Overall the defense
is the question here and if it can continue to bend without breaking this will
be another successful year. The offense will be on point and barring major
injury trouble up front this offense should click with another year of
experience for Ellison, et al. I see very little reason we won’t see a repeat
and real championship for Georgia Southern in 2015.
Appalachian State | 7-5 (126) | 10 (Y) | 96.3% | 10 | 87.6% | 79Scott Satterfield | Hired 2013 | 11-13
Scott Satterfield has
had a weird first couple of years in which he took over in the downturn after a
legend was pushed out and right as the team was making the jump up a level to
FBS. The last season at FCS was a 4-8 team that was the school’s first losing
season since 1993 (From
Bill Connelly’s SBNation article) and then a majorly surprising 7-5 run.
This leaves a fun little cypher for the 2015 season.
Tyler Lamb (6’2”,
200) is back for his sophomore campaign and there should be a lot of optimism
in Boone. Lamb Completed 61.4% of his attempts last season and although not
spectacular he was just a freshman. The best parts of his inaugural campaign
were is propensity to not take sacks (2.6% sack rate) and 7.7 yards per
attempt, which is a very nice jumping off part for a career as a spread QB.
Behind Lamb are two three star recruits in the forms of redshirt freshman J.P.
Caruso (6’1”, 200) and true freshman Daniel David (6’1”, 192). Either should be
capable of spot duty but I’d much rather the known commodity for the obvious
reasons. Lamb also added 518 yards on the ground last season for 7.7 yards per
carry and a handful of touchdowns. The backfield around Lamb is loaded with
talent. Junior Marcus Cox (5’10”, 200) is back after a 1415 yard, 19 touchdown
performance on 256 rushes. At 5.5 yards per carry he was wonderful, but he last
6 fumbles and put the ball on the ground 8 times. That being said the pros
certainly outweighed the cons. Joining Cox is Terrence Upshaw (5’10”, 200) a
sophomore who had 573 yards on 5.1 yards per carry as a true freshman. Senior
Ricky Ferguson (5’8”, 185) showed the best explosion last season and when the
blocking was what it should be always he averaged 10 yards a rush (in a very
limited (38) amount of carries). Josh Boyd (5’10”, 180) puts the frosting on
top of this depth as a three star new comer off his redshirt year. The
receiving corps was more productive than you’d expect from a spread Sun Belt
roster and they bring everyone back of the top seven pass catchers. Let’s start
with Cox who caught 16/24 targets at 7.5 yards per catch and was a useful if
not oft-used option. The top four receivers are all seniors with varying
degrees of catch rates and for the starters, wonderful yards per target. X (or
left) WR Malachi Jones (6’2”, 210) is back after a 585 yard, 9 yard per target
season. Jones was targeted 65 times but only caught 55.4% of those targets a
rate that may be partially on the accuracy of QB, partially on his hands, and
certainly on the fact that many of his targets where deep shots. At the slot
(M) spot Simms McElfresh (5’10”, 180) saw 63 targets and gained 484 yards, with
a catch rate of 66.7%. At 7.7 yards per attempt McElfresh wasn’t the deep
threat but was a typical slot possession threat with good hands. Helping to
clear out that space with Jones for McElfresh was Montez McGuire (6’1”, 215).
McGuire only saw 39 targets, but he brought in 64.1% of them for a great 9.9
yards per target. McGuire should see a higher concentration of targets
especially if he shows that same consistency to find the ball this season.
Jones’ backup shows that deep ball promise as well. Sophomore Shaedon Meadors
(6’2”, 180) brought in 71.4% of his 21 targets, for 13.7 yards per target in
his first season at App State. Add in sure handed junior tight end Barrett
Burns (6’4”, 235) and a pair of three star freshman, and you have a very nice
set of weapons for Tyler Lamb. Lastly we get to the big boys up front. Four
starters are gone from 2014 but there is still a ton of experience returning to
the line (79 starts) including some young beef (6 non-seniors at 285 or above).
The defense loses six
players from last year’s squad. Yep, SIX!! Up front, well the three returning
ends combined for 24 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks. Ronald Blair (6’4”, 275)
led the way with an impressive 13 TFLs and 6 sacks. Juniors Nathaniel Norwood
(6’2”, 235) and Olawale Dada (6’0”, 235) each had 5.5 TFLs and combined for 4.5
sacks. Dada will be the odd man out when it comes to starters, but he should be
a great option as a rotation player who will be hell on a tired o-line. The
rest of the depth is young with high two star Alanmichael Harkness (6’3”, 235),
a redshirt freshman, and former high two star junior Antonius Sims (6’3”, 250).
Inside little production meets big bodies and what is a very nice set of 2-gap
nose tackles. The stats show about a tackle a game but with the production outside
the tackles job is to keep those linebackers clean. Juniors Tyson Fernandez
(6’2”) and Darian Small (6’2”) weigh in at 330 and 325 respectively and Stephen
Burns (6’2”, 260) played in all 12 games as a junior in 2014. Behind those
three high two star Myquon Stout (6’1”, 260) needs to put some meat on his
bones but shouldn’t be called upon too much this season. At Linebacker, well
you can see in the stats that the line did their job well. The top five backers
combined for 25.5 TFLs and 8.5 sacks are a testament to an aggressive defense.
Headlining this group of young (3 Jrs, 2 So) linebackers is ILB John Law (Great
linebacker name), a stout 6’0” 235 pound linebacker, Law had 68.5 tackles in
2014, while making his presence felt in the passing game with 5 passes
defensed. Joining Law on the inside is sophomore Eric Boggs (6’3”, 235), who
had 30.5 tackles as a freshman and should be even more disruptive as a
sophomore. Outside, junior Kennan Gilchrist (6’2”, 210) had 6.5 TFLs and 3.5
sacks pairs up with sophomore Devan Stringer (5’11”, 195) who had 6 TFLs and 2
sacks in 10 games. Rotating with those two will be junior Rashaad Towers (6’2”,
205) who had 4.5 TFLs in 9 games. Behind that group of five are a trio of
seniors for experienced depth (36 games played in ’14), a quintet of juniors
and sophomores because depth is underrated, and a pair of freshmen OLBs Okon
Godwin (6’2”, 230) and Akeem Davis (6’2”, 200) to groom and make this group
even deeper next year. The playmaking, youth, and experience don’t stop in the
front seven. Of the returning players the secondary boasts four sophomores,
three juniors, and a pair of seniors. At safety, that dichotomy is represented
by senior FS Doug Middleton (6’0”, 205) and A.J. Howard (5’11”, 185). Middleton
had 64 tackles, 6 TFLs, 4 INTs, and 6 passes broken up. Howard, a high two star
recruit, had 51.5 tackles, 2 passes defensed and a forced fumble. At corner,
sophomore Latrell Gibbs (5’10”, 170) had a fantastic freshman year with 2 INTs
and 4 passes broken up, to pair with 31.5 tackles. Two more corners played in
12 games last season in the forms of Dante Blackmon (5’11”, 185) and Aaron Krah
(5’11”, 185) will need to make a bit more of a presence as they assume more
responsibility. Building out the rest of the depth are junior FS Alex Gray
(6’3”, 210), sophomore FS Treyon Garnett (6’1”, 195) and sophomore DB (6’0”,
185) who played in 31 games last season. That combined with freshmen Desmond
Franklin (6’1”, 190) and Josh Thomas (6’0”, 205).
This defense will be
disruptive again this season with young players continuing to grow into roles.
If they can play like the second half of last season, well damn will they be a
lot of fun to watch. On the other side of the ball, the run game will be
punishing and deep, a young quarterback will hopefully continue to grow into
something special and be able to take advantage of the one truly old unit of
the field, the receivers. App State should scare everyone in conference and at
worst fun to watch against Clemson.
Arkansas State | 7-6 (118) | 9 (Y) | 96.4% | 5 | 56.1% | 52Blake Anderson | Hired 2014 | 7-6
WARNING: This preview is written by my best friend Andy Kriha
Good thing we're starting with Sun Belt. I'm
clearly a little rusty
Key
Coach: Head Coach Blake Anderson
Anderson is heading into his second season as the Red Wolves
coach, becoming the first coach to complete that feat since Steve Roberts did
it in 2003. After his 3 predecessors, Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss), Gus Malzahn
(Auburn), and Bryan Harsin (Boise State) left for more prestigious programs,
Arkansas State placed hefty buyouts in his contract for the first four years.
This means he’ll have to do much better than last year’s 7-5 regular season
record if he wants a big name program to pay for his escape from Jonesboro.
Look for a 12-0 finish to land him the job at Ohio State after Urban Meyer’s
firing.
Key
Player: Backup Defensive Lineman Jonah Hill
The one time baseball sabermetrics genius fell from grace when
he was arrested for his involvement in a penny stock pump and scheme led by
Leonardo DiCaprio who turned to drugs, hookers, and frauds to get over failing
to win an Oscar yet again. Hill was released from prison early under the
agreement that he work for the police department as an undercover narcotics
officer posing as a college student. Hill has since slimmed down considerably
to take on his next role as a pass rushing defensive lineman who looks to
provide the defense a big boost as a role player off the bench. If he can use
this minor role to take over the show, watch for the Red Wolves defense to be
among the best in the country.
Reason
You Should Buy Season Tickets: Extra Tickets to the Mizzou Game
According to the Red Wolves athletic department website, the
best possible reason for you to buy season tickets is so that you get early
access to purchase additional single game tickets to the Mizzou game so you can
watch a real team from the SEC.
Regular
Season Prediction: 12-0
The Wolves start their season with their toughest test on the
road against USC. Ever since Pete Carroll packed up the Mayflower vans in the
middle of the night and bolted for Seattle before Reggie Bush’s shit was fired
out of a cannon at an enormous fan the Trojans just haven’t been that good.
This year, however, under Steve Sarkisian who left Seattle for more sun and
better looking women, the Trojans should get back to peak form, but not until
after a gut check loss against an ASU team hell bent on shocking the world.
The Wolves follow up the opening road win with a home game
against the SEC’s Missouri. Last year Missouri lost to IU. The Red Wolves will
win to start the year 1-1 and get the ball rolling for an easy schedule the
rest of the way. After rolling through Missouri State and Toledo, the Wolves
will dominate a pretty weak Sun Belt Conference.
Bowl
Prediction: GoDaddy Bowl
The Red Wolves will bypass a top tier bowl to play in the
GoDaddy Bowl where they have a standing annual invitation because of something
written in to Danica Patrick’s contract. They win 21-17 over Akron in a down to
the wire thriller.
Louisiana-Lafayette | 9-4 (120) | 6 (N) | 55% | 5 | 49%| 78Mark Hudspeth | Hired 2011 | 102-37 (36-16)
Let’s start off by
saying Hudspeth has done a great job at ULL as evident by his 36-16 record in
his four seasons at the helm. That being said the last couple years have
underperformed expectations by just enough to be a disappointments. Even with
that fact what he’s done is quite remarkable by any standard. Now onto this
year’s team, starting at the top with the battle at QB. There doesn’t seem to
be much of a contest for the opening however. Junior Brooks Haack (6’1”, 219),
a high 3 star recruit, looks like the logical choice. Haack was 20 of 23 last
season, only took a sack on 4.2% of his snaps and averaged 7 yards per attempt
(last year’s starter 5.9) for a performance that belies intrigue and hope. I don’t
really see anyone that will challenge Haack, but there are a couple youngsters
with promising upside for the future. Whether Haack delivers on his promise or
a youngster has to step up, they will have a lot of help in the backfield. That
help goes by the name of Elijah McGuire (5’11”, 198). McGuire might not be a
name that you know, but it’s one that will make waves this season. He split
carriers with Alonzo Harris last season who was an effective back, but McGuire
was the spark that put this offense in motion. On 166 rushes, McGuire averaged
7.6 yards per attempt, only put the ball on the ground once, and punched in 14
touchdowns. With an increased role in the offense the yards per carry may drop
a touch but the explosiveness and positive play will make him the center of the
offense. He isn’t just a rushing threat, he saw 57 targets and is the leading
receiver coming back in 2015. With good hands (79% catch rate) he’s a do
everything back and a bell cow with a twist. Backing up McGuire are seniors
Effrem Reed (5’8”, 193) and Torrey Pierce (5’9”, 170) Reed was more effective
on just shy of 30 carries for 4.9 yards per carry to Pierce’s 3.9. The other
two RB options are three star freshman in the form of the lanky Ja’Marcus
Bradley (6’1”, 180) and the stout and burly Jordan Wright (5’11”, 207) those
two may be the best back up options available and Wright would be a nice
thunder to McGuire’s lightning. Haack was effective if not spectacular as a
runner at 3.5 yards per rush on 5 rushes last season and will need to grow into
that role to really make this offense click. As far as pass catchers, we’ve
already mentioned McGuire out of the backfield and he may be the most
productive receiver this season. Both H receivers are back (think wing or slot)
in the form of Al Riles (5’10”, 209) and Gabe Funselier (5’11”, 175). Funselier
probably stays at the H in more of a slot role as Riles transitions outside
into the vacated Z role. Outside of those two players the only other returning
starter that really gets you going is C.J. Bates (6’1”, 200) a big bodied
receiver he only caught 12/19 targets last season but he caught enough and
produced enough to tie McGuire at 8.8 yards per target. Bates certainly needs
to grow into a starting role but there is some promise there. The rest of the
production will have to come from a trio of three star recruits: Keenan Barnes
(6’3”, 200), Gary Haynes (5’9”, 175) and Michael Jacquet (6’2”, 180). So
receiver is shallow, but with a group of talented players coming into the
system, much like QB and the running back has the player that should make it
all work. Two players are gone from a line unit that didn’t miss a start last
season, which is great until you start to lose players and there is no
experience to fill in. The good news is LT Mychael Quave (6’5”, 295) is back
with 39 starts so far in his career and the replacements inside are big. Center
Eddie Gordom (6’1”, 320) should be able to fill the gap there in his senior
season and Gregg Siener (6’4”, 280) or sophomore (6’3”, 270) will likely take
over at right guard. This unit won’t be as good as last year’s elite line but
it should still be very good once again.
As we switch to the
other side of the ball we see a similar issue on the defensive front, but with
a bit more experience and a lot less to pend available. No one who returns to
the front three played more than 9 games last season, which means a whole lot
of people played in more than one. In fact, enough played in more than one for
there to be a two-deep of players who played in at least 5 games. That depth is
going to need to be a positive if this front is going to keep the drop-off from
going too far. In the three four you need disruption and big bodies to keep the
linebackers clean and the Ragin’ Cajuns have at worst the size. Three players
weigh in at 300 lbs. or more: Senior nose tackle Marquis White (6’5”, 315),
junior 5 tech Jacoby Briscoe (6’3”, 325) and sophomore Rodrick Stephens (6’0”,
305). White will be your starter after a 3 TFL and 1 sack junior season and
will most likely be backed up by Stephens who fills the mold of a nose tackle.
On the edges you have the aforementioned Briscoe as the run stopper who had 2.5
TFLs last season. Along with Briscoe at the five is probable third starter
Taboris Lee (6’2”, 277) a sophomore who played in 9 games and had 3 TFLs and 1
sack. Backing those two up are senior Chris Prater (6’5”, 246), junior Remaine
Douglas (6’3”, 287) and freshman Mario Osborne (6’4”, 250) a high three star
recruit who should at least push for playing time amongst this group. The front
three has some experience and enough girth to make things happen, but will
there be enough talent and production behind them. At linebacker, there’s
experience returning and marginal production but a glaring whole that needs to
be filled. The good news is Daminique Tovell (6’2”, 248) is back at weakside inside
linebacker after playing all 13 games as a junior last season. Tovell accounted
for 54.5 tackles, 9 for a loss and 2.5 sacks. Tovell, is joined by returning
strongside (outside) linebacker T.J. Worthy (6’2”, 195) who was active dropping
back with 4 passes defensed to go along with 31.5 tackles in 10 games. The
other inside linebacker will be a three man race between juniors Kevin Fouquier
(6’4”, 235), Tre’Maine Lightfoot (6’0”, 232), and sophomore T.J. Posey (6’0”,
235). Posey was the highest regarded coming out of high school, saw time in the
most games and had the most TFLs and should be the starter and has the highest
upside of the three options. The good news is that there is experience inside
in case of injuries. The fourth linebacker spot (BUCK) really only has one
experienced option. With Boris Anyama gone that leaves Darzil Washington (6’3”,
215), a senior who saw time in 9 games with 19 tackles, 6 TFLs and 5 sacks. If
he can extrapolate just part of that disruption he will be useful to this
defense and a fine replacement at the BUCK outside linebacker position. The
last player to mention here is Otha Peters, a transfer from Arkansas who was a
former 4 star recruit who transferred to be closer to family. Peters has the
size to play inside, but with his talent level he should be a useful asset no
matter where they want to put him. So linebackers have some useful parts but
there are question marks at a couple positions. In the secondary the Cajuns
will need to replace three starters from last season and 12 passes defensed.
The lone returning starter is strong safety Tracy Walker (6’2”, 180), a
sophomore who played in 12 of 13 games last season and had 2 interceptions, 3
passes broken up and a forced fumble. He should continue to grow into his role
and be the leader of a young but talented defense. Next to Walker will be
fellow sophomore Travis Crawford (5’11”, 185), a high two star recruit who
played in 8 games last season and flashed enough production to be optimistic
for what he will look like in year two. The first outside replacement is
Jevante Watson (5’10”, 175) who played in 9 games and had four passes defensed
last season. Watson is a former three star recruit who is in his final season
in Lafayette. The other spot will be a competition between three junior
defensive backs. Simeon Thomas (6’3”, 180) is coming off a missed year in 2014
but in 2013 he had a couple pass breakups, the only statistical effect of the
triumvirate. Thomas’ competition are fellow three star junior, Troy McCollum
(6’0”, 170) who played in 3 games last season, and Dominick Jones (5’11”, 174),
an high two star, who played in 5 games. With so little amount of depth the
Cajuns will be hoping to see Terik Miller (6’0”, 220) a three star freshman
safety and Ethan Rose (5’10”, 180) high two star back to at least be
serviceable back-ups in case of health issues in front of them.
Overall, the offense
will be built around a potentially great running back, a talented offensive
line and a promising qb on top of a deep depth chart. The defense has size up
front but needs to meld and gain experience in front of a playmaking
linebacking corps with a major question. On the back end the safeties are young
and promising but the corners are iffy at best and need to prove that the last
couple years of learning haven’t gone to waste. Overall this has a good chance
to be another 9 win season for Louisiana-Lafayette.
Texas State | 7-5 (124) | 7 (Y) | 72% | 5 | 56% | 96Dennis Franchione | Hired 2011 | 210-126-2 (36-34)
Franchione has
bounced around a lot during his career, but in his fifth year at Texas State he
has a squad coming off a winning season. After coaching through the FCS to FBS
transition Franchione has done well to be over .500 and with talent coming back
on offense the Bobcat’s are in an interesting position to build on previous
success. There are options under center for the Bobcats with incumbent starter
Tyler Jones (6’2”, 205) leading the way. Jones hit on a little over 65% of
passes for a 22-7 TD/INT ratio. The only negative are a yards per attempt at
6.3 and a sack rate at 6.2%. With a horizontal passing game designed to get the
ball out of the QBs you can’t be wholly effective while taking that many sacks.
Pushing Jones this season is a cornucopia of players. Utah transfer Micah
Thomas (6’0”, 192) and freshman L.G. Williams (5’10”, 193) are both former
three star recruits. Joining them are Connor White (6’5”, 200) who saw a
handful of snaps, junior UTEP transfer Blaire Sullivan (6’4”, 220) and freshman
Blake Peterson (6’2”, 195) a high two star recruit. Overall a deep group with a
good bit of talent that should be more than enough to make this offense go no
matter who gets behind center. Next to, presumably, Jones is college senior
Rob(ert) Lowe (5’10”, 195) who probably can’t afford cable or satellite TV.
Lowe had 1091 yards on 185 rushes at 5.9 a carry. He also was able to take
advantage of blocking and touchdown (12) opportunities. Pairing with Lowe are Chris
Nutall (5’8”, 190) who rushed for 5.7 yards per carry in 2013 and three star
freshman Bralon Hutchinson (5’11”, 180) a bit lankier back who looks to have a
good shot at being the third back on the squad as multiple backs in front of
him showed little to no explosiveness at the second level. So it’s a shallow
fairly high upside group in the backfield, on the outside you see what you
should for a horizontal attack. No wide receiver broke ten yards per reception
and most were in the 6-7 range. Five of the top seven targeted receivers are
back this season with four of them having 68.8% catch rates or higher, an
expectedly, consistently high rate for this offense. The player who’s most
intriguing in the group of pass catchers is senior TE, Ryan Carden (6’4,250).
Carden caught 13 of 15 balls last season but the part that is most intriguing
was his 13.1 yards per target which was 4 yards better than any else who
returns. With Carden as a seam threat and a consistent quick horizontal game
there’s some promise with a lot of returning pieces. Add on a push from four
former three stars, three recruited and one a transfer, well I can at least
picture a competent passing game this season. The line will help two, only one
starter needs to be replace and the four remaining returners have 81 starts
amongst them, including 24 by 2014 2nd team all-Sun Belt left tackle
Adrian Bellard (6’5”, 314). So the offense has a really nice upside, with what
is potentially great depth at QB and WR and very high upside at running back
and a potentially stellar offensive line.
On the defensive side
of the ball… well, there is good and bad news. The good news 10 players saw at
least one game last season and had at least 2 tackles. The bad news is no one
could stay healthy; of those ten players, only two played all 12 games. So
there’s experience, but what did it show on the field? Returning nose tackle
Dallas McClarty (5’11”, 275) a former high two star recruit returns after a
sophomore campaign in which he had 31.5 tackles, including 7 tackles for loss
and 3 sacks. On the outside sophomore Karee Berry (6’3”, 225) was a wonderful
addition to the line with 23.5 tackles, 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. There is a big
loss, however, in the form of Michael Odiari who had 12 TFLs and 9 sacks. Berry
will be a great start to replace him, but someone else will have to step up to
pick up the remaining differences overall. Only one other end played at least
half the games last season and that was Jeff Banks (6’5”, 212). Banks played in
8 games last season, racking up 11 tackles (not bad), but the real intrigue
comes with in his disruption (3.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks). If Banks can take an
increased role and keep up that tackles to disruption ratio then the loss of
Odiari will be turned into a really promising young tandem of sophomores.
Behind those two the two deep has promise but little production. Junior Brian
Guendling (6’4”, 235) played in 4 games but had little production, redshirt
freshman high two star Cedric Gambrell (6’6”, 255) is a big bodied player who
should be a different impact in the running game than the other ends. That is
outside of incoming freshman Landon Beck (6’4”, 280) who by body type may shift
inside and become a disruptor at the three tech if he does. On the inside, next
to the undersize McClarty you will have last year’s most productive three tech
Mershad Dillon (6’3”, 300) who will have the beef to entrench on the line.
Dillon was the other 12 game player in the front four and put up good but not
great numbers (12 tackles, 2 for loss, a sack, two passes broken up and a
forced fumble). Backing up those front two are sophomore Will Trevillion (6’1”,
285), senior Rusmin Nikocevic (6’4”, 258) who saw ten games last season, nose
tackle Dondre Elvoid (6’4”, 305) a more stereotypical size for a nose and
freshman three star recruit Javier Edwards (6’3”, 330) who should have a chance
for some instant impact at his size and recruiting hype. Overall the front four
is deep with a combo of youth and experience that should flourish with an
infusion of girth from younger players. Behind that front four, there’s some
attrition, but there’s good youth to fill in and some old hats to make that
transition easier for the staff. Strong side linebacker David may is gone and
with him 113 tackles, 4.5 for loss, 1.5 sacks, 2 passes broken up and 3 forced
fumbles. Replacing Mayo will be up to Jerrid Jeter-Giilmon (6’1”, 230) a senior
who played in all 12 games last season racking up 31.5 tackles, but with very
similar disruption numbers that bode well for him in a starting role. To pick
up the tackles slack and play alongside Jeter-Gilmon is senior middle
linebacker Trey McGowan (6’0”, 247) who put up 62.5 tackles and 2 for a loss,
he was fine in the passing game with 3 breakups but he will be asked to be even
more of a factor in 2015. The other likely starter in the 4-2-5 assuming the
SLB is the third safety is MLB Stephen Smith (6’3”, 221) a former high two star
recruit who had 28 tackles in 8 games and should be a major component on this
team. The other four linebackers on the roster are all young. Sophomore middle
linebacker Dominique Williamson (6’2”, 213) played in 10 games but with little
impact (2.5 tackles). The other three are freshmen, Bo Anderson (6’2”, 225) a
three star recruit, Kerry Walker (6’3”, 225) a high two star and Jordan Mittie
(6’3”, 240) will be needed to step up in case of injuries with a lack of depth
in the corps. It’s shallow and a weakness but the front seven should be solid. The
secondary, like the front four has a lot back, the problem is they are, almost
literally, all of them are safeties. So the good news is the 2014 starting
corner David Mims II (5’10”, 196) is back after 42 tackles and 8 passes
defensed. Craig Mager is gone to the NFL and his replacement will come from…
The replacement will come from Brandon McDowell (5’10”, 183) who played in 10
games, or two high two star recruits, sophomore Clarence Guidry III (5’11”,
180) and Devondrick Dixon (5’11”, 177) who will need to step up quickly. The
starting safeties will come from a group of six safeties. The one starter I can
safely pinpoint is Aaron Shaw (5’10”, 196) a senior who played 12 games last
season and had 39.5 tackles but will need to be a much more active participant.
Three players will vie for the FS role over the top of the defense. Juniors
Germod Williams (5’11”, 192) a former three star with 31 tackles and 6 passes
defensed last season and Damani Alexcee (6’2”, 192) 21.5 tackles and 2 passes
broken up, and sophomore Dila Rosemond (5’10”, 175) 17.5 tackles who was a very
good three star recruit, but will need to show growth this off-season to take
over that role. This should be a better defense that last year’s unit (not a
tough feat) but lack of depth at corner and in the linebacking corps may limit
the upside for the unit.
Overall the offense
should be really good again and the front seven on defense is going to be a
really fine Sun Belt unit. The problem will be the back seven on defense and
that’s the biggest obstacle to the success in year five of the Franchione era.
ULM | 4-8 (92) | 6 (N) | 57% | 8 | 72% | 31Todd Berry | Hired 2010 | 56-93 (27-34)
Todd Berry enters sixth
season having seen incremental growth to a peak in 2012, but after a rebuild
starting in 2013, 2014 was an improvement overall back to average in the
conference. That brings us to 2015 a season that needs to see the offense
improve in order to take pressure off a defense that brings back three quarters
of their production off a season in which they were average in all of FBS.
There is certainly something to work with at QB. With six on the roster Berry
and company will have their pick as to whom starts for them. There is enough
competition that between seniors Brayle Brown (6’2”, 207) and Earnest
Carrington (6’2’, 223), three star JUCO commit Daniel Fitzwater (6’6”, 233),
sophomore Brian Williams (6’4”, 205), redshirt freshman Anthony Monken (6’4”,
209), and true freshman Chandler Eiland (6’0”, 196) there should be a pretty
solid option that starts at QB this season. Moving on from that mess, the
return of Devontae McNeal is a welcome. McNeal put up 205 yards on 29 carries
in 2013 for 7.1 yards per carry and when the blocking gave him the opportunity
he ripped off runs at a 15.2 yards per carry clip. Aside from him there isn’t
much to get excited about in the backfield, aside from the unknown of redshirt
freshman Ben Luckett (5’11”, 216) who looks like he could be a nice compliment
to McNeal. At receiver there is much more to be excited about. Kenzee Jackson
is gone after an 866 yard season last year but the next three in yards and
targets are back including the top TE from last year. On the outside Rashon
Ceaser (6’0”, 188) is back after a 112 target season in which he averaged 7.8
yards per target and caught 68.8% of his targets. Opposite Ceaser will be
Ajalen Holley (5’10”, 192), a junior, who hauled in just shy of 60% of his
passes last year at 8.9 yard per target they should be able to stretch the
field for their new QB. At slot Tyler Cain (5’8”, 185) should slot in with sure
hands (76.3% catch rate) and hopefully be a bit more successful utilizing his
catches than last year’s 4.6 yards per target. Depth shouldn’t be an issue with
three redshirt freshmen in the wings. The receiving corps should be the biggest
asset of this offense. A lot of starts are gone from a line that was pretty
atrocious outside of short yardage rushing situations last season. The
replacements have experience at four positions and sophomore Brandon Bridgers
(6’4”, 316) will add great size and should slot into the left tackle role for a
relatively young offensive line that only has up to go from last year.
On defense, well
that’s a whole other story. As stated at the top this was a premier mid-major
unit. It all starts up front with senior nose tackle Gerrand Johnson (6’1”,
290). A little undersized, Johnson was a beast last season amassing 62 tackles,
with 12.5 for loss and 6.5 sacks from the interior put a lot of pressure on
opposing offenses. Joining him is senior end Lorenzo Jackson who racked up 12.5
tackles for loss as well and 3 sacks from his 3-4 defensive end position. The
replacement on the other side should be Jacob Tyson (6’1”, 272) who put up 2
sacks in a reserve role as a freshman. Sophomore David Elias, Jr. (6’2”, 276)
should provide nice reserve role on the inside for Johnson. Behind that is a
group of solid talent brought in by Berry and staff that should make this front
3 plenty deep to reprise a disruptive role again in 2015. The linebackers are
anchored by a pair of seniors who amassed 119 tackles, 26.5 for loss and 13
sacks, 2 interceptions and a forced fumble. Hunter Kissinger (6’3”, 230) and
Michael Johnson (6’2”, 226) are joined by fellow senior Cody Robinson (6’1”,
216) their best cover linebacker from last season. Robinson had an interception
and 3 passes defensed to go with 3 forced fumbles as a linebacker that flew
around the field. That’s without mentioning his 3.5 sacks. The battle for the
fourth starting linebacker spot will fall to three juniors who played in at
least 11 games last season. Braxton Moore (6’0”, 226), Tevyn Cagins (6’2”,
228), and Alex Johnson (6’0”, 202) all saw playing time and had 5 (1.5 TFLs), 4
(0), and 2 (1) respectively. Moore has the slight edge here but whomever takes
that last spot finds themselves in a great place for solid production. This front
seven is nasty. Behind a deep and nasty front seven the Warhawks have a deep
and experienced secondary. The Hawk safety (hybrid linebacker safety) Mitch
Lane (6’1”, 215) is back after a 71 tackle season, 3 interceptions and 4 passes
broken up. Joining Lane at safety is Justin Backus (6’2”, 182) who added 2
interceptions and 5 pass break ups. At corner Trey Caldwell (5’9”, 189) and
Lenzy Pipkins (6’1”, 195) return as starters and bring back 54.5 tackles, 11
passes defensed. So a starting corps of playmakers behind a line that creates
havoc inside and out and an experience linebacking corps. Adding a two deep
that includes three players with 11 games played last year and good recruiting
and this could be a top 50 or 40 defensive unit in the country which would be
insane.
The defense will keep
them in games, all the offense has to do is be below average and you have
yourself a Sun Belt contender. As well as a top third defense.
South Alabama | 6-7 (98) | 3 (N) | 55% | 2 | 37% | 74Joey Jones | Hired 2008 | 40-35 (37-28)
Joey Jones’ Jaguars are
in their seventh year as a program and in their fourth as an FBS program. So
far they’ve done a great job of being competitive and a made a bowl last
season. Now only 5 starters return and as Bill Connelly said in his South
Alabama preview, “And now here comes the hard part: maintenance.” That
maintenance starts from the top down with the replacement of Brandon Bridge at
QB. Bridge was a mixed bag last season with only a 52.1% completion rate and a
way too high sack rate at 7%, but with a solid 15-8 TD to INT ratio. There are
a couple returning options from last year’s depth chart in the form of junior
Hunter Vaughn (6’2”, 195) and senior Matt Floyd (6’2”, 205) neither of whom had
enough to overtake Bridge last season. Vaughn had the better completion rate of
the two (64% to 43%) and sack rate (5% to 8%) in a very small sample. That
outstanding mediocrity leaves the door open for UAB transfer Cody Clements
(6’2”, 210). The Blazers starter last season complete 66.5% of his passes at
7.1 yards per attempt with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, but, as is common behind lesser
lines, had a sack rate close to 8% which will certainly need to improve if he’s
the starter for the Jaguars. Clements is the best option here to improve on
Bridge’s 2014 and should soften the blow of losing the starter from last year.
That’s a common theme as we move to running back. The three of the top four
rushers, including Bridge, are gone from last year’s team. The biggest loss
will be starter Kendall Houston who was efficient at 5.1 yards per carry and
took advantage of good blocking the best of anyone not named Brandon Bridge.
The good news is even with him gone sophomore Xavier Johnson (5’11”, 175) is
back and he was the most efficient runner at 5.4 yards per carry on 81 carries
and worked best with the line. If Johnson can improve on his advantage taking
with good blocking the floor for Johnson should be in 750 yard range. Joining
Johnson in the backfield, and the most likely tandem option is our second UAB
transfer D.J. Vinson (5’10”, 200). Vinson is the stocky of the two backs at 4.0
yards per carry at UAB last year he wasn’t an explosive back but he got the job
done and provided 9 touchdowns. The tandem of Johnson and Vinson, and that
should be the order, should be productive enough to be the base on which this
offense is built. Add in Berron Tyson (5’8”, 175) a sophomore who put up
intriguing numbers on only 11 carries last year and Dami Ayoola (5’10”, 200) a
former three star junior from Florida’s St. Thomas Aquinas will have their
influences on the offense as the season progresses. The passing game loses half
of their targets form last season, not the most prolific set, but productive
targets that will need to be replaced. The first man up with more responsibility
will be senior former four star Danny Woodson II (6’1”, 200) a big receiver who
was the third most targeted receiver and should be a nice possession option for
Clements. His catch rate of 55.6% was a little troubling but considering the
accuracy issues of Bridge was still better than his receiver peers last season.
Joining Woodson II is, and tell me if this sounds familiar, UAB transfer Josh
Magee (5’10”, 170). Magee is a smaller receiver and will probably be the slot
this season for South Alabama, but he will need to do better than his 51.4%
catch rate. The positives for Magee is that his 9.8 yards per target is an
improvement on anything the Jags had last season. A pair of sure handed TEs in
Braedon Bowman (6’4”, 220, 64% catch rate) and UAB transfer Gerald Everett
(6’3”, 215, 75% catch rate) should be more than adequate fill-ins for Wes
Saxton. A former three star JUCO transfer Tyrone Williams (6’2”, 200) should
round out a consistent if not spectacular group of receivers. The line loses
LT, RG, & LG and with that 103 starts from a line that wasn’t great but
wasn’t bottomed out either. The good news is there is experience from the
returners. Right tackle Chris May (6’5”, 290) has 32 starts under his belt, UAB
transfer Cameron Blankenship (6’5”, 285) has 24 and center Joseph Scelfo (6’1”,
300) has 13. The line lacks some girth but there are a couple replacements that
ring in at 310 and two incoming freshmen who are high two stars that should
keep this line fine in the pass but leave a bit to be desired in the run game.
The defensive line is
a different story. The Jaguars front loses a lot from last year’s team. Three
players with starts in all 13 games are gone and along with them 106.5 tackles.
Most importantly though are the loss of 22.5 tackles for loss, including 15.5
sacks. This is even more devastating considering the front seven as a whole
only returns 8.5. To replace those lost after last season the Jaguars up front
bring back Jimmie Gipson III (6’0”, 255), he of 6 TFLs and 3 sacks, to play the
Jack rush end this year. He will have to improve on those stats in a starting
role but looks to at least have some of the skills necessary to have a nice
senior season. At the other end position is Akeem Lewis (6’2”, 250) will have
to outperform his 2 sack output in 12 games to pick up slack but should at
least be useful in a starting role after playing 12 games last season. Inside
is a scarier proposition. Sophomore Caleb Butler will need to add some girth to
his 6’4” 250 pound frame to build upon his 10 tackle season last year in back
up duty as a freshman. Next to him Tre Alford (5’10”, 295) a short stocky 1
tech will need to be a force to replace the 37 tackles and 5 sacks of Jesse
Kelley last year. Ultimately this is a pretty shallow group that will need to
show a lot of growth to stave off a major drop off in production from the
front. Behind them a lot is going to be asked of SAM linebacker Demarius
Rancifer (6’4”, 205) who had 26.5 tackles in 11 games last season in a back-up
role. Rancifer replaces Maleki Harris who had 72 tackles, including 9 for a
loss and a sack. The other player who is going to have a lot of the burden is
UAB transfer Kalen Jackson (6’1” 205). Jackson only played in 2 games for the
Blazers but will more than likely be thrust into a starting role for the
Jaguars this season. Jackson played safety last year at UAB and will make this
even more of an interesting situation. Grant Powell (6’2”, 215), a junior,
along with Andrew Philon (5’11”, 225) will be asked to add girth to the backend
of the front seven and be more productive than they were last year in 10 games
in which they combined for just 9 tackles. Overall the front seven is really
bare and needs to mature fast. The one saving grace may be the maturity and
depth of the secondary. Yes this group loses Terrell Brigham, a FS who had 91
tackles, 4 for a loss, 7 passes broken up and a forced fumble and CB Montell
Garner who had 11 passes defensed (INTs + PBs), but there is depth here. Five
players return with 12 or 13 games played last season and they welcome the
addition of two transfers, two redshirted high two star recruits and a couple
recruits headed by 3 star corner Jalen Thompson (6’0”, 170). The headliner of
the returners is junior Strong Safety Roman Buchanan who had 59.5 tackles and
shouldn’t have the same luck of 7 passes broken up without an interception.
Along with Buchanan, corners Atonio Carter (5’8”, 190), E.J. May (5’10”, 180),
and Devon Earl (5’10”, 185) are back and should slot into increased roles.
Replacing Brigham is Jeremy Reaves (5’11”, 180) who had 15 tackles, 1 pass
break up and a forced fumble in limited time last season as a freshman. The
success of the defense lies with this group’s ability to clean up the messes
left by the front seven and the infusion of talent in the two deep.
Overall this South
Alabama team has a hill to climb to get back to 6-6 and a bowl game but an
influx of help from UAB transfers on offense should make that the unit to carry
the team and improve the most. On defense a young unproven group needs to stem
the flow early and improve as the season moves along. What they do here may
ultimately tell us the level of success for the baseline as the program matures
out of its infancy.
New Mexico State | 2-10 (122) | 8 (Y) | 71% | 9 | 82% | 90Dough Martin | Hired 2013 | 33-73 (4-20)
Doug Martin’s tenure
at New Mexico State has been has been consistent, but unspectacular. He has
gone 2-10 both seasons but in his defense this is an incredibly tough job. A
step up a game or two would be helpful and at least signal growth. On offense
Tyler Rogers is back to start, at least early, and should benefit from starting
his sophomore year. Rogers brings back a 61.5% completion percentage, but with
a 19-23 TD-INT ratio and only 6.1 yards per attempt he’s going to feel pressure
sophomore Andrew Allen a more well regarded two star who saw some snaps last
year and RS freshman Nick Jeanty a 3-star who could have a say late in the year
if he flashes for coaches and the record stay well below .500. The backfield
provides a little more optimism. Larry Rose III is back as the most explosive
RB from last season. Rose had 1100 yards at 5.9 yards per carry clip and on
plays where the line did their job, Rose III averaged 8 yards a carry. It’s
easy to see why this offense will be built around the run game. Rush yards also
shows why a change may come, Rogers averaged 4.3 yards per carry while Allen
average 7.9 and that dynamic with Allen or Jeanty behind center may take this
offense much closer to average than it was at 107th in country in
F/+ last season. Behind Rose II it gets dicey, Xavier hall had 342 yards on a
little over 100 carries last year and Marquette Washington, a freshman in 2014,
who average 2.1 on a paltry 11 carries. The Aggies will need someone who can
show something to spell Rose III a bit but more carries should come his way
than the 166 in his inaugural season. The receiving corps loses two of their
top five receiver from a season ago. The good news is they bring back their
best receivers according to catch rate in junior Teldrick Morgan (6’0, 185) who
caught close to three quarters of his targets last season and he was targeted
close to a quarter of the time. The other part of this duo is senior Joshua
Bowen (5’10”, 175) who caught 68% of his targets. Add Gregory Hogan (6’1”, 182)
sophomore who had 28 catches last year on 48 targets at 6.9 yards per target
you have a pretty solid receiving corps, especially if Hogan can grow in his
sophomore year and get his catch rate above 60% this could be a solid and
slightly explosive with the threat of a run game. The line needs to replace 1st
team all-Sun Belt center Valerian Ume-Ezeoke who had 43 career starts but the
other four positions have 77 starts returning with two reserves who have 13
starts. This should be an experienced line for Rose III to run behind.
On defense, well
there is talent returning with 82% of the tackles back, but questions remain
about their effectiveness. The line, nay, the whole front seven is severely
undersized. The seven linemen returning plus two freshman average, 238 lbs.
That won’t work at most high schools and without premium talent it won’t work
anywhere at the college level. With a front four like that you need big bodies
in the linebacking corps, and that’s not quite the case here. The linebackers
average 208.5 lbs., and that includes outlier, and returning sophomore, Will
Clement who chimes in at 232 lbs. Those numbers really put damper on a squad
that loses only its top DE and two back-up linebackers. The good news is that
MLB Rodney Butler (6’1”, 212) played bigger than his size and was a bit
disruptive with 88.5 tackles and 7.5 for a loss. This is a team that had
trouble with getting pressure with 4 sacks and 34 TFLs 6 of which graduated. If
this front seven has any chance of holding up or at least bending without
breaking the linebackers have to be spectacular, swarm and disrupt in the
backfield. The DBs bring some promise though, Winston Rose a starting corner is
gone and with him 1 TFL, 4 INTs, and 2 passes broken up, but a lot of young and
experienced players remain in the secondary. There are only two seniors in the
group, and the starters are mostly sophomore. Kawe Johnson (5’8”, 177) a junior
FS and Lewis Hill (5’10”, 175) a senior CB lead this young group into 2015
where they will need to disrupt the line of scrimmage and cover. Johnson is the
key to an aggressive secondary with 3 TFLs and 3 forced fumbles last season and
Lewis had 5 passes defensed (INTs + PBs). There is some hope here but this
undersized unit keeps the ceiling low even if the floor is coming up.
Overall this is a
team that is still a ways away from competing in the Sun Belt but it has a
rushing game and enough talent in the pass to make some noise on offense and a
defense that is undersized but experienced to at least entertain fans. Overall
the record won’t be great, at best probably 4-8 but they should be
entertaining.
Troy | 3-9 (116) | 7 (Y) | 71% | 6 | 65% | 42Neal Brown | New Hire | 0-0
As hit above in
coaching changes Brown replaces his old boss Larry Blakeney the “Inventor” of
the Troy program. Brown has some pieces to work with including a returning QB
and almost 75% of the yards from last season. That doesn’t mean there isn’t
work to do... Brown inherits sophomore Brandon Silvers (6’3”, 202) a big
quarterback who hit on 70.5% of his passes last season, but most of those were
horizontal throws as is evident in his 5.8 yards per attempt. As Bill C puts
it, “IT was clear what kind of offense he was running; only three times in 11
games did Silvers average better than 10 yards per completion.” Brown brings in
a spread offense that won’t change much for the young quarterback, but the
ability to stretch a defense once in a while will be a handy skill for the
incumbent to develop as he continues his college career. Silvers was fine on
the ground at a 4.1 yards per carry clip he wasn’t otherworldly but he was good
enough to be a threat and that’s just nice to have. Next to Silvers in the
backfield the top two backs return; senior Brandon Burks (5’9”, 201) and junior
Jordan Chunn (6’1”, 232) will split the carries again this year. Burks was the
better of the two backs with 6.1 yards per carry and 7 yards per highlight
opportunity, to Chunn’s 4.5 yards per carry. Chunn is a runner who’s going to
get a 3-5 yards on every carry just by falling forward but that’s all he does.
Burks on the other hand is a short little scat back who gets lost in a line and
squirts out 7 yards downfield. There a mid-major version of thunder and
lightning and with a proper spread plan this should be a trio that will be a
lot of fun to watch. The receiving corps has a veteran presence but it doesn’t
take long to figure out who has the wiggle and who doesn’t. Bryan Holmes
(5’10”, 174) and Teddy Ruben (5’7”, 156) both averaged over 9 yards a target
and Holmes almost hit 10. K.D. Edenfield (6’0”, 194) is the big bodied
possession receiver with solid hands. Holmes and Ruben should be the quick hit
part of the offense off the action set up by the run and if they can keep up
the burst they will only add to a set of solid options for Brown to mold his
offense year 1. The line has 42 starts coming back, but it comes in the form of
just two players. There are big bodies to fill in with a group of high two
stars all chiming in over three bills but they’ll need to gel early if this
offense is going to get off the ground.
Another undersized
defensive line, but unlike New Mexico State there’s bulk inside. Both starting
DEs are back from last year’s team and that means 16 TFLs including 9.5 sacks.
Add to that three forced fumbles and you have a set of ends that should at
least cause trouble in the Sun Belt. Inside you bring back a starter, Lonnie
Gosha (6’3”, 306), at the 1 technique and a rotation player with an increased
role, Garrett Peek (6’3”, 291), to play the 3 tech. If Gosha can be more
disruptive than his 3 TFLs last season and keep up his pass rush ability (2.5
sacks), then you have a shot at a solid line to build around. On the two deep,
you need a hodgepodge of young players and marginal seniors to step into rotation
roles to keep the starters fresh. The biggest improvement needs to come from a
linebacking corps that was young a year ago but has experience and a good
amount of raw talent in the context of the conference. The most impactful
returnee could be Terris Lewis (6’2”, 237), a two star junior who only played
in 5 games last season but still had 21 tackles more than any other returning
player. The most exciting player is probably Sam Lebbie (6’3”, 247) a three
star junior with a solid frame, 3 TFLs at MLB he needs to be more aggressive
year two and become the catalyst for improvement on defense. The two deep is a
little shallow but two backups played in 9 & 10 games last year
respectively and should provide enough depth along with incoming recruits. The
secondary is experienced with five seniors, a junior and a sophomore who played
in 11 or 12 games last season. The majority of the talent is at safety, with
returning starters FS Montres Kitchens (6’0”, 180) and SS JaQuadrian Lewis
(6’1”, 187) who combined to make up a pretty nice run and pass stopping
playmakers. Kitchens had 70.5 tackles, 6 INTs and a pass breakup, Lewis added 2
forced fumbles, 4 passes defensed, 5 tackles for loss and 46.5 tackles. They
should get a lot of work with a growing linebacking corps and a lack of tackles
for loss from the front seven. On the outside it’s a bit more of an uphill
climb, but the addition of Lamarcus Farmer (6’0”, 167) from UAB and his 5 passes defensed and 20
tackles to Tray Hall (5’11”, 175) a senior former 3 star and nickel back
Dondrell Harris (6’0”, 195) the backfield should be pretty good.
Overall the offense
should be fun much like New Mexico State but the defense should actually have a
chance to stand up to some people with enough bulk to make plays. I also don’t
think that much will change at the top and should be a smooth transition into
year one of the Neal Brown era at Troy.
Georgia State | 1-11 (93) | 8 (Y) | 72% | 9 | 89% | 41Trent Miles | Hired 2013 | 21-59 (1-23)
It’s been a rough
start for Trent Miles who was hired in 2013 after the departure of Bill Curry
who coached the team from its first game in 2010 through 2012. The climb has
been slow and the results have been lagging but we’re to year six and something
has to change. The good news is Georgia State brings back a lot of experience
and even if that’s all its something to build around.
Senior Nick Arbuckle
is a veteran passer who completed 60% of his passes for just shy of 3300 yards
passing the thing that you’re going to need to see improvement on is the sack
rate. Now surely some of that is the line, but a 30 sacks in a season and a
sack rate at 6.5% is too high to be effective. If the offense can get a touch
more vertical, only 6.8 yards per attempt, this could be a dangerous passing
game in conference. The rest of the offensive backfield is a mess, CB Marcus
Caffey was last year’s top rusher yardage-wise, but at 3.8 yards per carry he
isn’t your answer. Kyler Neal (5’11”, 218) shows the most promise of any of the
returning rushers with 5.2 yards a carry on 40 rushes last season and at 218
he’s going to bruise a lot of linebackers in the hole. To compliment him the
Panthers will more than likely have to rely on RS freshman Demarcus Kirk (6’0”,
190) a solid upper-tier two star athlete. All-in-all, the running game can’t
get much worse. The receiving corps is very good, both top receivers return in
the forms of Robert Davis (6’3”, 198) & Donovan Harden (5’11”, 175) who
combined for 1600+ yards and 45% of the targets. Harden was more productive
with his opportunities. At almost 10 yards a target (remember the quarterback
had 6.8 yards per attempt) he was extremely effective at gaining yards with the
ball in his hands. Davis was no slouch either, but he needs to be better at the
catch point as evident in his 51.5% catch rate. That being said he still
averaged 7.5 yards a target to make a very nice dynamic duo for Arbuckle. Add
senior TE Joel Ruiz (6’4”, 240), owner of a 68% catch rate, 8.4 yards per
target you have a bunch of talented experienced weapons. That doesn’t include
UAB transfer Nyiakki Height (6’1’, 190), sophomores Todd Boyd (5’11”, 180) and
Glenn Smith (6’1”, 185), and their 68%, 67% and 78% catch rates you have a lot
of targets for a fairly accurate QB. Now all you need is to give him some time
in the pocket or to get the ball out quick. Starting center and left tackle are
gone but there is playing experience from the replacements and plenty of size
to go around. Plus the sack rate can’t get much worse than last year anyways.
The front 3 brings
everyone back, and I mean everyone, and they’re young and experienced which
should mean growth in 2015. The optimist looks at that and says a group that
only had 9.5 TFLs should be much more productive this season with the
continuity and the growth. The pessimist, looks at it as an issues of how much
more growth there is to be had after two years in the system. The best news is
all 9.5 TFLs came from the three starters, who weren’t too shabby with just shy
of 90 tackles, but an increase in disruption would definitely help both their
production and the production of the four linebackers behind them. That and a
refrain oft heard on defense in these part is a lack of bulk, the biggest men
on the roster are 285, 285, & 290 with sophomore Julien Laurent coming in
at 325. Laurent, however, didn’t play in a game last year as a freshman. The
inside linebackers were proficient, both senior Joseph Peterson (6’0”, 225) and
sophomore Trey Payne (6’0”, 230) eclipsed 70 tackles (79.5 & 72
respectively) and combined for an impressive 10.5 TFLs. Peterson also accounted
for 3 sacks, which is a nice addition to the team until you realize he was tied
for most sacks on the team with just 1 other person. That was OLB Jarrell
Robinson, who has moved on from the program and taken his 8 TFLs and 3 sacks
with him. On the outside, you will most likely see UAB transfer Alonzo McGee
(6’1”, 220) who had 5 TFLs and a sack for the Blazers last season. Joining
McGee will be Mevlin King (6’3”, 225), who saw playing time in 11 games but only
racked up 19 tackles and no pressures. Behind King and McGee are a handful of
players who saw some time but didn’t flash all that much. The biggest impacts
may come from a collection of high two star prospects. Starting with sophomore
Malik Ricks (6’1”, 230) who played sparingly in 6 games. Joining him are
freshmen, Chase Middleton (6’2”, 225) and Charlie Patrick (6’0”, 215) both high
two stars that should at least intern at the position this season. There are
spots of promise in the front seven but the best, deepest, and most experienced
unit on the field is defensive backfield. First off no one left and the best
part is they add a safety that missed last year with injury and two former UAB
players to the mix. Also, unlike the other units on the field where you wonder
if plays are going to be made, the backs have the stats to show their
abilities. Where the line had 9.5 TFLs coming back and the inside linebackers
had 10.5 TFLs the backs bring back 15.5 TFLs, 3 sacks and 23 passes defensed
with only 3 being interceptions. That ratio shouldn’t repeat itself and that
means a defense that should create even more opportunities. A set of aggressive
senior safeties in Tarris Batiste (6’1”, 210), Nate Simon (6’1”, 195), and
Dartez Jacobs (6’1”, 200) who combined for just shy of 140 tackles last year
return and should fly around the field. On the outside, Bruce Dukes (5’10”,
195) is back for his senior season to reprise his 53 tackles, 6 pass breakups,
and forced fumble from last year. The opposite starter should be Chandon
Sullivan (5’11”, 180), a sophomore who played in all 12 games last season as a
freshman and had an INT and 38 tackles. Behind them they have two more CBs who
played in at least 11 games and two sophomores who say at least 8 games as
freshmen.
The offense will air
it out with a very deep set of pass catchers and will be exciting in a much
different way than the other poor teams in the conference. The defense lacks
beef up front, with only one player pushing three bills. The pass rush is an
issue, but inside they should be really stout with an experienced and
productive secondary to put a lid on it. Overall there will be improvement but
this group just lacks the upside that is needed to take a major leap instead of
a marginal one.
Idaho | 1-10 (127) | 6 (Y) | 46% | 7 | 57% | 60Paul Petrino | Hired 2013 | 2-21
Paul Petrino heads
into year three in 2015 after modest gains in 2014 with a bunch of JUCO
recruits, now with a bunch of turnover we’ll see if another incremental step
can be taken. The “good news” is that Vandals return starting QB Matt Linehan.
Alright, that’s not really good news, but he started most of last season and
has competition to push him this year. That’s the good news, Petrino has
brought in 3 star freshman Kareem Coles (6’1”, 194) to at least push Linehan
and more than likely ascend to the starting job. Linehan and Coles don’t have a
high bar to clear in 2015. Last season Linehan completed 58.4% of his passes
for 5.5 yards per attempt, while taking a sack close to once ever ten plays
(not all his fault). Add in a 11-18 INT-TD rate and you have a low bar to
improvement. To pair with either quarterback is a group of underwhelming (?)
backs with an interesting set of skills. Elijhaa Penny (6’2”, 254) returns for
his senior season off a junior campaign that saw him average a fine but nothing
special 4.3 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns. That being said he didn’t do
much when given good blocking and that although not a problem with a big back
isn’t going to up the explosiveness of the offense. Behind Penny is Aaron
Duckworth (5’8”, 203), a sophomore who averaged 4.0 yards per carry and was
slightly more successful at getting yards with good blocking. Duckworth is
squatter than Penny but will probably be less of a compliment to Penny than a
spill back with a similar style. There really isn’t much behind them and with
inexperience or mundanity at QB that isn’t quite what you want out of your
backs. That all said this is still a Petrino offense and that lends itself to
spread it out passing. Three out of the starting four receiving options are
gone from last year with a combined 2085 yards and 62% of the targets from last
season. The good news is that Dezmon Epps is back. In 2013 Epps caught 77 balls
on 120 targets for 971 yards. There’s work to be doe, as he was less productive
than McCain was last season but he should at least pick up that slack left from
last season. The only returning starter is Deon Watson (6’4”, 210), the x (or
outside) receiver caught 56.9% of his receptions in his sophomore year for 343
yards. If he can continue to grow into the position, and get more consistent QB
play, he and Epps could be a nice combo for whomever wins the starting QB job.
Jacob Sannon (5’11”, 185) looks like the replacement for McCain at the Z.
Sannon only saw 7% of the targets last season, but Sannon brought 71% of those
passes in for catches. Add to that the sure hands of Penny (75% catch rate) and
you have at least an adequate set of receivers for your quarterback and
Petrino’s system. Up front the interior of the line should be fine with 38
returning starts and junior Mason Woods (6’9”, 355) should slide over to LT
this season but that still leaves at least two spots that need to be filled in
camp this spring and fall. This offense doesn’t have the upside of the other
bottom dwellers, but it should be Petrino’s best so far in Moscow.
The defense needs
help, but the good news, and I mean it this time, is they have size up front.
There are four players who ring in at 300 or better and three that weigh over
320 lbs. There are big losses however, starting 3 tech Quayshawne Buckley is
gone and with hi 56 tackles, including 15 for a loss and 4 sacks. Buckley’s
back up Tueni Lupeamanu (6’1”, 301) saw time in 10 of 11 games, putting up 9.5
tackles, 1.5 TFLs and no sacks. If Lupeamanu can increase his production with
playing time he won’t pick up all the slack from Buckley but he will be a good
enough substitute for Buckley with help from his line mates. Joining him inside
is Ryan Edwards (6’3”, 320) a senior who started at the 1 tech but didn’t show
disruption or tackle production that you would want to see from a man his size,
in this conference, in his junior season. Edwards had 14.5 tackles with 2.5 of
them for a loss and 1 sack which boils down to a tackle per game and a third of
those games the tackle was for a loss. Behind those two are Marz Martial (6’4”,
320) a former three star recruit who in his junior season needs to show why he
was rated that highly. Add to that a high two star junior Glen Atnoine, a 6’4”
354 pound behemoth who would work both as a tech in a 4-3 or in an even better
utilization as a anchor at nose tackle in a 3-4. So there is size on this team
inside to work with in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 with a new defensive coordinator
coming in. Outside Quinton Bradley (6’3”, 252) returns and brings back his 9.5
tackles for loss and 6 sacks from last season. Bradley is a play maker and
definitely someone to watch for his disruption in his senior season at Idaho.
Opposite Bradley there are a bunch of question marks. Take your pick, you have
Kaylyn Ayers (6’2”, 244), Leonard Hazewood (6’4”, 240) and Kevin White (6’4”,
260) to choose from and a mystery with all. If Idaho moves to a 3-4 I think White
and his 260 pound frame moves to the 5 tech DE position leaving you with two
options for OLB across from Bradley. I personally would lean the younger of the
two players and that means Hazewood needs to step up and produce in a possibly
a new role in his junior season. The linebackers Buckley is back, Marc Millan
(6’1”, 218), the senior strong side linebacker is back to follow up his 83
tackle, 14.5 TFLs performance from last season. After Millan the Vandals need
to see sophomore Tony Lashley (6’3”, 230) perform up to his three star levels.
Lashleyhad 17.5 tackles in 7 games last season, combine that with Broc Westlake
who had 30.5 tackles in 10 games the Vandals may have the making a pretty nice
front seven in a 3-4. Overall the linebackers should be deep enough to handle
the work load behind a shuffled line. Behind the front seven there are a couple
intriguing players returning and then question marks the rest of the way.
Junior SS Russell Siavii (6’2”, 200) and senior Jayshawn Jordan (5’9”, 184)
return with 6.5 TFLs, 4 INTs and 4 interceptions to set up a playmaking base
for the Vandals. That leaves the onus on a plethora of former two star juniors
who saw no time last season and junior Jordan Grabski (6’0”, 183) who had 13.5
tackles in two games and sophomore corner Armond Hawkins (5’10”, 187) who had
10 tackles in 7 games and should grow into his starting role as the season goes
along.
Overall, the offense
leaves something to be decided but there’s talent at QB and WR and a couple
running backs who will get you 3-4 yards just about every run. On defense, a
switch to the 3-4 would create a pretty good linebackers, a line with girth and
a secondary that should have a couple playmakers. That all comes together for a
very un-Petrino team that will lean on the defense while the offense goes
through growing pains.
Standings
Georgia Southern
should be the class of the conference again, but this should be a fun offensive
conference this season. New Mexico State has a chance to surprise some people,
Louisiana should be solid as ever and Troy has a chance to be better than if
Blakeney hadn’t left the program.
Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, Arkansas State,
Louisiana-Lafayette, Texas State, ULM, Troy, South Alabama, Georgia State, New
Mexico State, Idaho
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