Here we go, two months 'til football so here are my positional rankings. Yes they are going to change but I like where I am so far.
Running Backs
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Stars
(1-6)
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Starters
(7-11)
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Starters
With Questions (12-17)
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Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh
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Arian Foster, Houston
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Albert Morris, Washington
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Demarco Murray, Philadelphia
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Frank Gore, Indianapolis
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Jamaal Charles, Kansas City
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C.J. Anderson, Denver
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Melvin Ingram, New Orleans
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Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
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LeSean McCoy, Buffalo
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Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati
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Eddie Lacy, Green Bay
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Justin Forsett, Baltimore
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Rashad Jennings, New York (N)
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Matt Forte, Chicago
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Lamar Miller, Miami
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Foster is probably a
top five back, but I have injury concerns that may or may not be founded but
that’s what puts him behind Forte. Murray is a perfect fit for Chip and the
workload doesn’t really worry me too much. Anderson, McCoy, and Forsett are
clear number ones with few questions, outside of McCoy’s propensity to bounce
runs he shouldn’t. As we get to tier three, well this is where the debate
begins, Morris’ offense worries me, along with his inability to be on the field
in passing situations. Gore is old but has shown very little signs of slowing
down, and moves to an offense that has shown fantasy potential outside of
Richardson. Ingram flashed at the end of the year, Hill is our first back who
has a solid second in the backfield, but he was still very productive with
those problems last season, Jennings was very solid when on the field, and
Miller finally got his chance, but will need to watch out for Ajayi if he
falters early.
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Low
Starters, Good Backups (18-28)
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Backups
(29-44)
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Lottery
Tickets (45-66)
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Andre Ellington, Arizona
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Tre Mason, St. Louis
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Josh Robinson, Indianapolis
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Melvin Gordon, San Diego
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Ameer Abdullah, Detroit
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Todd Gurley, St. Louis
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Latavius Murray, Oakland
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T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville
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Alfred Blue, Houston
|
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Chris Ivory, New York (A)
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David Cobb, Tennessee
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Branden Oliver, San Diego
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Joseph Randle, Dallas
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Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland
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David Johnson, Arizona
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Gio Bernard, Cincinnati
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Terrence West, Cleveland
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Doug Martin, Tampa Bay
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Joique Bell, Detroit
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DeVante Freeman, Atlanta
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Chris Sims, Tampa Bay
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Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
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Jay Ajayi, Miami
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Bishop Sankey, Tennessee
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Legarrette Blount, New England
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Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia
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Darren McFadden, Dallas
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C.J. Spiller, New Orleans
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Reggie Bush, San Francisco
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Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay
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Carlos Hyde, San Francisco
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Darren Sproles, Philadelphia
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Duke Johnson, Cleveland
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Shane Vereen, New York (N)
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Matt Asiata, Minnesota
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DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh
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James Starks, Green Bay
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Tevin Coleman, Atlanta
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Montee Ball, Denver
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Knile Davis, Kansas City
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Buck Allen, Baltimore
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Denard Robinson, Jacksonville
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Robert Turbin, Seattle
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Steven Ridley, New York (N)
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Travaris Cadet, New Orleans
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Danny Woodhead, San Diego
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Fred Jackson, Buffalo
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Ronnie Hillman, Denver
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Andre Williams, New York (N)
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Let’s start with the
trio that stand out in tier four. Gordon, Randle and Hyde. Gordon drops because
he’s a rookie, Woodhead is going to snipe third down snaps, and Oliver shown
flashes last year. That all adds up to a crowded backfield and a bit of a
reduced workload, at least early. Randle will move up at least a tier if we get
clarity on the Dallas backfield. With that offensive line whoever starts is
almost assuredly, at worst, a solid #2 back. Lastly, Hyde. If you would have
said to me after last season that Gore would be gone and I wouldn’t have Hyde
in my top 20-24 back and that I wouldn’t be all that upset about it. I would
have called you crazy. Tell me that 40% of his offensively left, I’d still be
skeptical but I’d understand. Tell me that half the defense (a bit of an exaggeration),
left and what remained was injury laden and I’d be even more understanding but
I’d have told you that Hyde should be a strong back with slightly less ability
in the passing game and enough usefulness to be effective with a full load.
Hyde is a fine back, I think he will be really good, but he replaces gore
behind a weaker line, with a defense that’s going to give up a ton of points,
on a team that lost their head coach, offensive coordinator, and moved their
defensive line coach to head coach. All in all, the doom that was predicted the
last couple of years under Harbaugh will almost assuredly be here and will at
least stunt the early growth of Hyde. Spiller has moved up my board the more I
think about the New Orleans offense and the more I listen to the sage advice of
the fellas of The Audible Podcast from Football Guys.
For the backups and
lottery tickets well there are things that will look interesting. The Backups
tier is in good order now and is a place where I am more than willing to change
and adjust as we move through camps. Abdullah is going to have a very nice
sized role and may be the best back year one. Yeldon has to beat out Robinson
and Gerhart, but the rumor is Gerhart is moving to an H-back role and which
means Yeldon and Robinson split duty or Robinson spills Yeldon. Crowell and
West should probably be bumped to the top of this tier but for now I’m willing
to look a little too aggressive on new comers. Mathews, Bush, Sproles, and
Vereen are all receiving threats out of the backfield, where as Williams,
Coleman, Davis, and Robinson are more conventional backups. Lastly, the lottery
tickets. Robinson, if he gets a chance and or beats out Herron should be very
good as a downhill bowling ball in Indy’s offense. Gurley is still recovering
from a major knee injury and the Rams sound like they will be very cautious. If
Gurley is healthy, he will fly up my board. The rest are all pure backups with
significant gaps behind the starter, and/or promising rookies in less promising
depth chart situations.
Wide Receiver
|
Stars
(1-5)
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Starters
(6-12)
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Starters
With Questions (13-16)
|
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Dez Bryant, Dallas
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Randall Cobb, Green Bay
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Deandre Hopkins, Houston
|
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Demaryious Thomas, Denver
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Julio Jones, Atlanta
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Alshon Jeffery, Chicago
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Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh
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Calvin Johnson, Detroit
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Golden Tate, Detroit
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A.J. Green, Cincinnati
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Odell Beckham Jr, New York (N)
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DeSean Jackson, Washington
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Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
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T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis
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Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
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Emmanuel Sanders, Denver
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The
stars are pretty simple here, last year I had a five player tier up top that
looked pretty similar Bryant, Thomas, Green, and Nelson all within it. This
year, the only switch is the exchanging of Calvin Johnson for Antonio Brown. I
don’t think this needs to be explained as Brown was the best WR in fantasy by
10%. The starters tier is pretty straight forward, with Johnson & Beckham
being the highest variance candidates. My third tier is small but they all have
a question mark, for Hopkins, Jeffery, and Jackson that question mark is QB.
Hopkins, was really good with 12 starts from Ryan Fitzpatrick, 2 by Case
Keenum, and 2 by Ryan Mallett. Through all that Hopkins still managed 275 more
yards on 19 fewer targets than Andre Johnson. Hopkins also still managed to
average 15.9 yards per reception. Jeffery was still very good with a
combination of Cutler breaking down and Clausen being, well Jimmy Clausen.
Jeffery Still managed 1133 yards for a very respectable 31.3 yards per
reception. Finally, Jackson was a guy I was high on last season, and am again
this year. Yes he’s boom or bust most weeks but the boom weeks are worth the
overall risk for me. Jackson led the league at 20.9 yards per reception, was
targeted 54 less times than Jeffery, and 30 less times than Hopkins, while
still ending up with over 1100 yards. It’s the six weeks with less than 60
yards of receiving that worry me and accentuate the boom and bust nature of his
game. Last in this interesting tier is Golden Tate. Tate’s question mark are
his performances with Johnson. They are still very good, RotoViz had them as,
5.77 receptions/.15 TDs/7.92 targets/75.54 yards, but he’d be elite if he was
the lead receiver, by his numbers without CJ (only 3 games), 8 receptions/.67
Tds/13.33 targets/116.33 yards. So, the floor is really nice but the upside is limited
with the focus of the offense moving to Johnson.
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Fine
Starters (17-25)
|
Very
Good Backups/3rd Starters
(26-34)
|
Fine
Backups/ Upside Plays
(35-47)
|
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Andre Johnson, Indianapolis
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Brandin Cooks, New Orleans
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Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh
|
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Sammy Watkins, Buffalo
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Michael Floyd, Arizona
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Victor Cruz, New York (N)
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Julian Edelman, New England
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Anquan Boldin, San Francsico
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Steve Smith, Baltimore
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Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay
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Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia
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Terrence Williams, Dallas
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Eric Decker, New York (A)
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Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City
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Marques Colston, New Orleans
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Keenan Allen, San Diego
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Pierre Garcon, Washington
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Kevin White, Chicago
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Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina
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Brandon Marshall, New York (A)
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Kendall Wright, Tennessee
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Jarvis Landry, Miami
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Amari Cooper, Oakland
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Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona
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Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia
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Kenny Stills, Miami
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Devante Parker, Miami
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DeVante Adams, Green Bay
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Charles Johnson, Minnesota
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Mike Wallace, Minnesota
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The next group we
have is a group of receivers that are fine number two options. Players that may
have #1 upside but are most like good 2nd options. Johnson at the
top may be a surprise but he’s going to a great situation, and as we stated in
the Hopkins discussion had a fine year with little positive QB play. Watkins
had a fine rookie season, but he doesn’t have the QB play to make him a player
with Beckham upside, and he didn’t show the explosive playmaking ability that
Beckham flashed either. Edelman, Jackson, Decker, and Landry are all overlooked
players who have roles that will allow them to produce consistently over a
season. Edelman and Landry as possession slot threats, and Jackson and Decker
as outside possession threats who should eat up targets and yards. Robinson is
my upside pick for this year, not unlike many others, and I’m lower on Allen and
Benjamin than most. Allen is a fine player and a solid 2nd, but I’m
not seeing the elite upside. Benjamin for his part came in with holes in his
game and didn’t really fix those. He got a high volume of balls, but will need
to do a much better job of the little things with more scrutiny from defenses
in year two.
Tier four is a
cornucopia of players I’m higher on than most and players I’m lower on than
most. Cooks, Maclin, Marshall, Cooper, and Matthews are all players I’m lower
on than their ADP. I’m 10 WR spots lower on Cooks, 3 on Maclin, 7 on Marshall,
10 on Cooper, and 17 on Matthews. For me, Cooks is Landry without the feeling
he’s the safety valve for his quarterback. I’m not on an all that different
plain on Maclin and I think for everybody it stems from Alex Smith’s lack of
faith in throwing more than 3.5 yards downfield. Marshall also comes down to
quarterback but he’s got better talent around him than Maclin does. Cooper and
Matthews are just guys that I think don’t live completely up to the hype. For
Cooper it’s the fact that he’s going to be the focus of every defense because
of the limited talent on Oakland’s offense, where Matthews is being elevated well
above last year’s production even though I think he stays pretty much where he
was last season. I’m higher than most on Floyd, Boldin, Agholor, and Garcon.
I’m 5 spots higher on Floyd, 19 on Boldin, 2 on Agholor, and 20 on Garcon. Let’s
start where we left off, Philadelphia. Agholor I think does a great Maclin
impersonation year one, he’s got all the skills and has flown under the radar
since the end of 2013’s college season. Garcon & Boldin fall in the same
space for me. Veteran receivers who catch a lot of balls, are consistent but
are limited by quarterback plays. Boldin more so than Garcon even, who was a
fringe top 20 receiver last season. Last on the list is Floyd, I’m five spots
higher than the consensus because I think he rebounds from what wasn’t even
that bad of a season by him.
Tier five are your lottery
tickets. Young guys like Martavis Bryant, Kevin White, Kenny Stills, Devante
Parker, Charles Johnson all have the ability to break out. Bryant, Stills, and
Johnson all produced last season and where surprises. White and Parker are
rookies in interesting situations with a quarterback and the depth chart
holding them down respectively. The remaining players in the tier, are vets
with questions. Cruz is coming off a major injury, Williams is in a great
situation with meh production, Colston may be too low and I may be an idiot,
Smith is old and I won’t pick him again, Wright is steady and may be the
biggest benefactor of Mariota’s consistency, and Wallace is a known commodity
with major flaws, a good young quarterback, and opportunity. The one player I
forgot was Adams, who came on in the second half for Green Bay. We’ve seen
players do this as the 3rd receiver for the Packers, and a healthy pessismism
is a perfectly reasonable stance to take. Sometimes.
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Starters
I’m Probably Too Low On (48-64)
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Rueben Randle, New York (N)
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Torrey Smith, San Francisco
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John Brown, Arizona
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Roddy White, Atlanta
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Branden Lafell, New England
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Malcolm Floyd, San Diego
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Cody Latimer, Denver
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Marvin Jones, Cincinnati
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Dwayne Bowe, Cleveland
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Doug Baldwin, Seattle
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Cecil Shorts, Houston
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Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati
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Marques Lee, Jacksonville
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Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee
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Michael Crabtree, Oakland
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Justin Hunter, Tennessee
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Breshad Perriman, Baltimore
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The header for this
tier says it all. I’m almost assuredly too low on Brown, Latimer, Jones,
Baldwin and Sanu. Green-Beckham and Perriman are watch in camp players and the
rest are players we know that have age or role question marks that I’m still
looking at. I’m going to be really wrong on a handful of these so get your
pitch forks ready.
Quarterbacks
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Elite
(1-2)
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Really
Good (3-6)
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Fine
Starter (7-10)
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Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
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Peyton Manning, Denver
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Cam Newton, Carolina
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Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
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Russell Wilson, Seattle
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Matt Ryan, Atlanta
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Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
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Phillip Rivers, San Diego
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Drew Brees, New Orleans
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Matthew Stafford, Detroit
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Up top there isn’t
much to talk about other than order. Luck was the top fantasy quarterback last
season but I think Rodgers is the more consistent of the two options and they
both are going to be really good. The next tier is bookended by to aging guys
in Manning and Brees. Both have age related questions and we watched Manning
drop off hard at the end of the season. Brees was still really good last season
but they lost a lot of skill talent and I just think we start to see a fade for
the undersized and aging veteran. Manning will see less passes in Kubiak’s
system but that may not be the worst thing and he’s still great at picking his
spots. I betting on Wilson to be more 2013 than 2014 as a passer and to still
be a headache for the league on the ground. And well we know what the
Pittsburgh offense is going to be. I know my #7 quarterback is going to be questioned
but I love Newton’s upside on the ground, he progresses every year as a passer
and he scored more points than Flacco despite missing multiple games. Ryan,
Rivers, and Stafford all fall in a category together as fine quarterbacks with
goo talent around them, limited upside but limited floors.
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Questions
(11-17)
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Meh
(18-26)
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Tom Brady, New England
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Andy Dalton, Cincinnati
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Tony Romo, Dallas
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Sam Bradford, Philadelphia
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Ryan Tannehill, Miami
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Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay
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Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota
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Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco
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Eli Manning, New York (N)
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Robert Griffin III, Washington
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Joe Falcco, Baltimore
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Alex Smith, Kansas City
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Jay Cutler, Chicago
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Carson Palmer, Arizona
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David Carr, Oakland
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Should I have put
Brady/Romo in Fine Starters maybe, but Brady is going to miss four games and I’m
not that enthralled with him anyways, and Romo hasn’t been an elite fantasy option
despite being a really fine QB on Sunday. Tannehill is coming up and that
offense is going to be a lot of fun this year, Bridgewater is a year or two
from being an elite fantasy option. Manning has talent around him and may be in
for a renaissance, Flacco hits deep plays but is all over the board and Cutler
may be benched at some point this season. As for the Meh tier. Well Bradford,
Winston, and Palmer are my upside guys, Kaepernick and Griffin are high
variance guys, and Dalton, Smith, and Carr are, well, meh, if I have too.
Tight Ends
|
Tier
Gronk (1)
|
High
End Starters (2-6)
|
Fine
Starters (7-12)
|
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Rob Gronkowski, New England
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Greg Olsen, Carolina
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Martellus Bennett, Chicago
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Jimmy Graham, Seattle
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Jason Witten, Dallas
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Delonte Walker, Tennessee
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Maxx Williams, Baltimore
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Coby Fleener, Indianapolis
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Travis Kelce, Kansas City
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Julius Thomas, Jacksonville
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Heath Miller, Pittsburgh
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Zach Ertz, Philadelphia
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Not a whole lot to
say here, Walker is the surprise up so high, but he caught a bunch last season,
has a rookie who going to need a safety net and outperformed Thomas last
season. Change the order of tier two and I probably don’t have a whole lot of
issues. Behind them, Williams is my favorite of the third tier followed by Ertz
but they both have question marks.
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Solid
Backups
|
Lotter
Tickets
|
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Charles Clay, Buffalo
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Larry Donnell, New York (N)
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Jared Cook, St. Louis
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Jace Amaro, New York (A)
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Jordan Cameron, Miami
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Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati
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Antionio Gates, San Diego
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Mychal Rivera, Oakland
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Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota
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Vernon Davis, San Francisco
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Josh Hill, New Orleans
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Jordan Reed, Washington
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Eric Ebron, Detroit
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Down here watch
Amaro, Eifert, Ebron and Davis. Amaro, Eifert and Ebron because of what they
were in college, and Davis because he’s done it before with Kap but who knows
what that offense is going to look like.
Defense & Kickers
No analysis because
they’re both crap shoots, but I’ll give you my top-24 for each. Leave a comment
if you have any questions on specific defenses.
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Defense
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Kickers
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St. Louis Rams
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Stephen Gostkowski, New England
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Buffalo Bills
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Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis
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Seattle Seahawks
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Dan Carpenter, Buffalo
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Houston Texans
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Cody Parkey, Philadelphia
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New York Jets
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Dan Bailey, Dallas
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Miami Dolphins
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Steven Hauschka, Seattle
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Denver Broncos
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Justin Tucker, Baltimore
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Arizona Cardinals
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Matt Bryant, Atlanta
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Carolina Panthers
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Mason Crosby, Green Bay
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Detroit Lions
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Blair Walsh, Minnesota
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Minnesota Vikings
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Sturgis, Miami Dolphins
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Dallas Cowboys
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Paul Dawson, San Francisco
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New England Patriots
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Greg Zuerlein, St. Louis
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Philadelphia Eagles
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Connor Barth, Denver
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Baltimore Ravens
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Matt Prater, Detroit
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Kansas City Chiefs
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Nick Folk, New York (A)
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Green Bay Packers
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Shaun Suisham, Pittsburgh
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Cincinnati Bengals
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Nick Novak, San Diego
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Cleveland Browns
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Mike Nugent, Cincinnati
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San Francisco 49ers
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Ryan Succop, Tennessee
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Pittsburgh Steelers
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Graham Gano, Carolina
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Indianapolis Colts
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Josh Scobee, Jacksonville
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Kai Forbath, Washington
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Atlanta Falcons
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Robbie Gould, Chicago
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So there you are my
pre-camp positional rankings for fantasy. Any questions, I’m always willing to
discuss my rankings. Let me know what you think.
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