Preliminary 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

Moving on to running backs and the top seems to separate itself and the middle is a mess but there’s intrigue here and should be fun to sort out and argue as we move through the summer and camp.

Running Backs
Excellent Starters (1-5)	Good, Entrenched Starters (6-15)	Starters with Questions, Backups with Upside (16-34)
Adrian Peterson | MIN | 1	Jamaal Charles | KC | 13	Demarco Murray | TEN | 36
Todd Gurley | LAR | 3	Devonta Freeman | ATL | 18	David Johnson | ARI | 40
Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | 6	Doug Martin | TB | 22	C.J. Anderson | DEN | 43
Le’Veon Bell | PIT | 8	LeSean McCoy | BUF | 24	Melvin Gordon | SD | 51
Lamar Miller | HOU | 10	Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 25	Jeremy Hill | CIN | 53
	Mark Ingram | NO | 27	Giovani Bernard | CIN | 55
	Jay Ajayi | MIA | 29	Ryan Mathews | PHI | 57
	Lamar Murray | OAK | 30	Thomas Rawls | SEA | 60
	Eddie Lacy | GB | 33	Ameer Abdullah | DET | 63
	Frank Gore | SF | 35	Duke Johnson | CLE | 66
		Matt Jones | WAS | 68
		Dion Lewis | NE | 69
		Justin Forsett | BAL | 72
		Carlos Hyde | SF | 75
		Rashad Jennings | NYG | 78
		Matt Forte | CHI | 84
		Chris Ivory | JAC | 87
		Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 91
		Jeremy Langford | CHI | 93

Let’s start with the first tier and two things will almost assuredly pop out at you. Lamar Miller in my top five/tier one, and Jamaal Charles outside of it. Yes I like Charles, but he’s coming off another significant knee injury and Ware/West were impressive and will more than likely start chewing into his carries. As for Miller, he was under-utilized by the Miami staff who failed to consistently feed him the ball. He goes to a staff who will give him a full helping of carries consistently and will want to take pressure off a new, and still inexperienced Osweiler. In tier two I differ from ADP right now with McCoy who falls in upper 2^nd RB territory (pre-injury concerns) and on a larger scale Jonathan Stewart whose ADP is RB25.McCoy has been consistently good over the last three seasons, and has been a fringe top five RB on average. Stewart is going to see less attention with a healthy receiving corps and after a stellar Cam Newton season in 2015. Finishing up tier two I’m low on Eddie Lacy who is being drafted RB9, and am higher on Ajayi (RB24) and Gore (RB34). On Lacy, I’m happy he’s down in weight but you’re starting to hear an impatient McCarthy and you have to wonder whether the weight will ever be under control. As for Ajayi and Gore I think you have two opposite ends of fantasy skepticism. Ajayi is a second year player with few carries and a plethora of worries about his knee already in his career narrative. He’s a talented player and the Dolphins really didn’t bring in much to challenge him this off-season. As for Gore he had knee injury concerns when he came into the league but he just keeps on chugging. There may be signs of wearing down a bit, but there is no challenge to him, Luck is back, and the Colts finally invested in the offensive line. The tier three surprise right off the bat is David Johnson. Johnson, last year’s sweetheart, is a player I liked but thought would be more of just a receiving threat last season. Chris Johnson is back, and he was the lead back last season. Yes the split will probably be more even, but the Arizona staff has seemed to be higher on Chris than the rest of us. That said, I like David, but I think he’ll be a high upside #2 RB, rather than a sure-fire #1. Rawls, like Johnson is a full round or so lower in my rankings than their current ADP and for me it’s a combination of returning from injury and the fact that the Seahawks felt they needed to draft three running backs in the draft, including two that I think highly of. Rawls was good in relief of Lynch last season, but the Seahawks have hinted that they have a very specific plan for the former receiver. Alex Collins on the other hand is a downhill runner with a bit of wiggle. Neither is good enough right now to steal the job from Rawls, but I think they bite into his % of the carries more than most others do.as we move towards that low #3, high #4 RB range we start to see more variance, but three players at the bottom of this tier are about a level (#1 RB, #2 RB,. Etc) and a half different from ADP. The trio of Carlos Hyde, Matt Forte, and Jeremy Langford. All three kind of fall in different tangents of the same idea for me. Forte and Langford are especially analogous in this situation because they’re on teams that appear to have a three way split. Langford is everyone’s favorite but the staff seems wary and they drafted Jordan Howard in the third round, and still have Kadeem Carey rostered. Forte is getting up there in age and rushes, the Jets clearly like Bilal Powell, signed Khiry Robinson this off-season, and traded for Zac Stacy last season. I think the Jets will want to limit Forte’s carries early to create longevity for the season. Hyde, is a player that I liked coming out but will need Chip to rediscover inside zone in his offensive scheme. Add in Mike Davis, a 4^th rounder from last season, and Shaun Draughn who flashed an interesting set of skills last season you have a backfield that might show more committee features than many expect.

Elite Backups (35-57)	Young Upside, Entrenched Backups  (58-83)	Fliers (84-116)
Bilal Powell | NYJ | 94	Tyler Ervin | HOU | 184	Antonio Andrews | TEN | N/A
DeAngelo Williams | PIT | 98	Travaris Cadet | NO | 186	Khiry Robinson | NYJ | N/A
Chris Johnson | ARI | 102	Wendall Smallwood | PHI | 188	David Cobb | TEN | N/A
Danny Woodhead | SD | 106	Chris Thompson | WAS | 192	Albert Morris | DAL | N/A
James Starks | GB | 108	C.J. Prosise | SEA | 194	Mike Tolbert | CAR | N/A
Tevin Coleman | ATL | 112	Denard Robinson | JAC | 197	Jonathan Williams | BUF | N/A
Keith Marshall | WAS | 115	Darren McFadden | DAL | 198	Mike Davis | SF | N/A
Darren Sproles | PHI | 118	Tre Mason | LAR | 201	John Crockett | GB | N/A
Kenneth Dixon | BAL | 120	Alex Collins | SEA | 206	Zac Stacy | NYJ | N/A
Chris Sims | TB | 122	Cameron Artis-Payne | CAR | 209	Bennie Cunningham | LAR | N/A
Zach Zenner | DET | 126	Spencer Ware | KC | 211	Juwan Thompson | DEN | N/A
Kareem Carey | CHI | 129	C.J. Spiller | NO | 213	Fozzy Whittaker | CAR | N/A
Paul Perkins | NYG | 130	Jordan Howard | CHI | 214	Branden Bolden | NE | N/A
Ronnie Hillman | DEN | 134	James White | NE | 219	DuJuan Harris | SF | N/A
Theo Riddick | DET | 136	Damien Williams | MIA | 220	Alfred Blue | HOU | N/A
Derrick Henry | TEN | 138	Andre Ellington | ARI | 225	Jonathan Grimes | HOU | N/A
Shaun Draughn | SF | 146	Jared McKinnon | MIN | 228	Dexter McCluster | TEN | N/A
DeAndre Washington | OAK | 148	Branden Oliver | SD | 231	Kyle Juszczyk | BAL | N/A
Karlos Williams | BUF | 149	Tim Hightower | NO | N/A	Knile Davis | KC | N/A
LeGarrett Blount | NE | 174	Andre Williams | NYG | N/A	Tyler Varga | IND | N/A
TJ Yeldon | JAX | 178	Robert Turbin | IND | N/A	Peyton Barber | TB | N/A
Shane Vereen | NYG | 181	Matt Asiata | MIN | N/A	Lorenzo Taliaferro | BAL | N/A
Chanderick West | KC | 182	Devontae Booker | DEN | N/A	Jonas Gray | JAC | N/A
	Buck Allen | BAL | N/A	Aaron Green | LAR | N/A
	Kenyan Drake | MIA | N/A	Jacquizz Rodgers | CHI | N/A
	Marcel Reese | OAK | N/A	Steven Ridley | DET | N/A
		Brandon Ross | MIN | N/A
		Mike Gillislee | BUF | N/A
		Christine Michael | SEA | N/A
		Roy Helu | OAK | N/A
		Terrance West | BAL | N/A
		Lance Dunbar | DAL | N/A
		Kelvin Taylor | SF | N/A

The top of the elite backups tier is pretty straightforward, well, apparently except for Chris Johnson. I was absolutely skeptical last season when he was listed #1 on the depth chart, but he was clearly that throughout the year until his injury. This year I think we see a bit more of an even split with him and David Johnson, but he’s being drafted RB60 right now and that just seems ridiculous to me. After that we got Keith Marshall, the rookie for the Redskins. Marshall doesn’t have much competition for #2, Thompson seems like much more of a pass catching #3 option, and #1 (Matt Jones) doesn’t seem to be filling all the pre-requisites for Gruden and company. Marshall is an intriguing athlete and highly touted recruit out of high school and if year two jump post knee surgery happens he’s worth the flier. After him we have two other lesser known, lesser touted backups. Zach Zenner and Kadeem Carey. Carey I mentioned above in my Langford blurb up top, but no one is getting the shine in Chicago and Carey is the number two until Howard works his way in there, if at all. Zenner was a favorite of the draft community last season and showed a couple flashes of what he could do last year, but he remains a relative unknown to the public at large. The Lions have said they envision Riddick as their slot receiver, and I think Abdullah makes a leap and takes a majority of the carries but the Lions are probably going to still want a 1-2 punch and all roads lead to Zenner. So call Carey a hunch, and Zenner a prediction and do with it what you want. Starting in week 9, Shaun Draughn had four straight weeks of 15+ touch weeks, and with those opportunities he had 96,77,86, and 86 total yards and showed the ability to be at worst a complimentary passing game piece and a legitimate second option for the 49ers. He then got injured and replaced for the end of the season. Draughn is also the only 49ers RB that has been signed to a contract since San Fran hired Chip Kelly. I’m not saying that Hyde is in trouble but if I told you that you could draft a younger player who showed flashes and is a rushing threat in the Sproles role wouldn’t you take it after the three season’s worth of evidence in Philly. Oh, and he’s currently not being drafted. I’m way too low on Karlos Williams, I think he’s being over-drafted, but where I have him is ridiculous and I apologize. TJ Yeldon is being drafted RB27. Why? I mean I get that it’s only a high #3, but it’s five spots higher than the man you have to think they brought in at worst to be a tandem back, but more than likely to be the lead which at best puts Ivory at 35% and Yeldon at 30%? That’s not worth a #3 RB and isn’t worth picking 5 RBs/a full round higher than his backfield mate. Now for the David Johnson portion of the show, or how lesser known youngsters can win your fantasy league. Tyler Ervin is my David Johnson. He graded out well with my metrics pre-draft so I watched him in a couple DraftBreakdown cut-ups and didn’t understand why I hadn’t heard of him. The Texans have apparently created a new position for him in their offense and much like Johnson he should show flashes in the return game. Where I don’t like Yeldon, I do like Denard Robinson who I think should still have a role as a receiving threat where Yeldon and Ivory don’t necessarily excel. I’m probably too low on McKinnon who has been lauded for his ability out of the backfield but I’ve spent too many seasons betting against Peterson staying healthy. McKinnon is going to get some opportunities, but he’s more future/promise than a 2016 impact fantasy guy. The bottom of my round tier brings us a trio of guys whom I just don’t buy the hype on. Drake, is the closest to moving up, but I believe in Ajayi’s talent and think that RB 57 is too high for the third RB right now in Miami. I liked Buck Allen last season, but I think Kenneth Dixon is better all-around and Justin Forsett isn’t gone yet. So I have an established #1 who I think eventually becomes the entrenched #2 and a RB selected the year after Allen who I think is better and you end up with a #3 RB that everyone loves. This is a contrarian’s sweet spot and I love it. Devontae Booker was a workhorse at Utah, and was fun to watch as he rolled over Pac-12 defenses. That’s all well and good but I have some concern about wiggle with Booker, and C.J. Anderson is plenty talented enough to lock down this job. Add in Ronnie Hillman as a receiving back and I don’t see the open path that many do to Booker being the Broncos bell-cow in 2016.

That’s it, my RB primer heading into the fiddling season. The last column is just guys that pop up late, and I didn’t want to waste your time on guys that are mostly nowhere near being drafted. There’s a lot to figure out in the RBs and much more than QBs this will change probably significantly in the next couple months.