Preliminary 2016 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks

Alright so this is a pre-season fantasy football exercise. These are all preliminary, the overall ranks are based off of performance by standard deviation above last starter and last roster-able player. I put a minimal number of defenses and kickers in (in this case 10) and I didn’t fiddle with it for this first set.

In the tiers it goes “Player | Team | Overall Rank”.

Quarterbacks
Elite Starters (1-4)	Consistent Starters (5-9)	Fringe Starters (10-14)	Starter Upside Twos (15-22)
Cam Newton | CAR | 19	Drew Brees | NO | 56	Tony Romo | DAL | 83	David Carr | OAK | 110
Aaron Rodgers | GB | 37	Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 65	Jameis Winston | TB | 86	Kirk Cousins | WAS | 121
Russell Wilson | SEA | 46	Tom Brady | NE | 71	Blake Bortles | JAX | 90	Eli Manning | NYG | 132
Andrew Luck | IND | 48	Carson Palmer | ARI | 76	Matthew Stafford |  DET | 100	Marcus Mariota | TEN | 140
	Philip Rivers | SD | 79	Tyrod Taylor | BUF | 104	Jay Cutler | CHI | 144
			Matt Ryan | ATL | 185
			Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 191
			Joe Flacco | BAL | 216

The four players at the top are clear to me you could change the order and I wouldn’t have too much of a qualm. Five through nine are players who rank in the top ten in both sets of averages (weighted towards last season and not). Tier 3 includes players with upside (Winston/Bortles/Taylor) and players with consistency but questions (Romo/Stafford). Tier 4 splits between old guard of Flacco, Cutler, Ryan, Manning, and Tannehill and younger unproven guys Carr, Cousins, and Mariota. Mariota is going to be the one to watch and see what that offense looks like. Carr and Cousins need to duplicate their previous successes.

Solid Twos, NFL Starters (23-28)	Meh (29-35)	Just Being Thorough (36-43)
Andy Dalton | CIN | 235	Brock Osweiler | HOU | 256	Carson Wentz | PHI | N/A
Teddy Bridgewater | MIN | 242	Geno Smith | NYJ | 257	A.J. McCarron | CIN | N/A
Alex Smith | KC | 247	Paxton Lynch | DEN | 258	Zach Mettenberger | SD | N/A
Sam Bradford | PHI | 253	Mark Sanchez | DEN | 259	Josh McCown | CLE | N/A
Robert Griffin III | WAS | 254	Blaine Gabbert | SF | N/A	Matt Cassel | DAL | N/A
Jared Goff | LAR | 255	Colin Kaepernick | SF | N/A	Nick Foles | LAR | N/A
	Ryan Fitzpatrick | FA | N/A	Brian Hoyer | HOU | N/A
		Mike Glennon | TB | N/A

The solid Twos, NFL Starter tier is, well, what it sounds like players who I think are entrenched as starters but that I don’t have high hopes. Yes I put Bradford and Griffin III in this group; Griffin has a super high ceiling and a super low floor, where as I believe that Bradford is more talented than most. Goff won’t have much contest in Los Angeles but it’ll take time to fall into a groove. The Meh tier is pretty meh. They’ll be QBs I keep an eye for mid-year injury replacements, but not much more. The last Tier is pretty self-explanatory. I included it for thoroughness, and pretty much thoroughness alone.