The Sun
Belt got rid of geographic anachronisms New Mexico State and Idaho, and kept
the changes coming by splitting the conference up into divisions for the 2018
football season. This is interesting, but two things jump out right away: 1)
why not just play a round robin? You’re not the Big Twelve and not have a
championship game isn’t going to adversely effect the conference. 2) Boy that
East Dvision looks loaded. App State/Troy/Ga Southern are perennially 3 of, at
worst, the 5 best teams in the conference.
The average power rating for the Sun Belt
squads is -9.24.
The average power rating for the Sun Belt East
squads is -8.75.
The average power rating for the Sun Belt West
squads is -9.72.
Note: Glosssary and P.L.U.M.P. Page
Team
|
Adj.
2017
W/L
|
%
Yards
Ret.
|
%
Touches
Ret.
|
%
Line
Starts
Ret.
|
%
Tackles
Ret.
|
%
Passes
Def.
Ret.
|
247
Sports
Score
|
Total
Points
|
East Division
|
||||||||
Troy
|
5.18
|
34.67%
|
29.10%
|
68.57%
|
63.87%
|
48.00%
|
117.49
|
0.53
|
Appalachian State
|
-0.55
|
41.41%
|
47.19%
|
38.30%
|
61.58%
|
63.04%
|
113.29
|
-4.04
|
Georgia Southern
|
-16.3
|
84.99%
|
80.12%
|
91.07%
|
89.60%
|
97.96%
|
135.56
|
-8.21
|
Georgia State
|
-6.79
|
40.98%
|
36.17%
|
77.27%
|
58.74%
|
47.06%
|
109.12
|
-13.19
|
Coastal Carolina
|
-15.83
|
54.01%
|
54.00%
|
77.65%
|
63.35%
|
74.36%
|
87.95
|
-18.86
|
West Division
|
||||||||
Arkansas State
|
-3.2
|
73.44%
|
73.54%
|
80.65%
|
63.45%
|
55.32%
|
127.18
|
-0.94
|
ULM
|
-7.54
|
82.01%
|
83.44%
|
63.72%
|
80.28%
|
60.98%
|
115.27
|
-5.23
|
Louisiana
|
-9.7
|
94.54%
|
93.84%
|
49.23%
|
57.89%
|
35.00%
|
117.18
|
-11.41
|
South Alabama
|
-14.4
|
86.35%
|
83.86%
|
57.00%
|
70.24%
|
73.21%
|
118.57
|
-12.49
|
Texas State
|
-17.66
|
44.45%
|
48.28%
|
100.00%
|
74.61%
|
70.27%
|
122.63
|
-18.52
|
Troy’s
rating is held up by it’s performance last year and although that correlates well
from season to season the complete reversal of returning production on offense
from last year and lack of production returning in the secondary are scary to
say the least. As far as teams gunning for Co-Champs Troy and App State the
easy money is on Georgia Southern and Arkansas State not only have they been
top challengers each year, but they both have outpaced the conference in
recruiting over the last four seasons. They bring back at 50% in all five
production categories tracked and in the case of Georgia Southern they don’t
return less than 80% of the production from last season. If they can regain
form and put together some consistency my Sun Belt dark horse would be Ga.
Southern. Overall, this should be a competitive conference in the middle once
again and even if I don’t understand it, the conference championship game
should be exciting to boot.
Top Returning Offensive Producers (Above average production)
Quarterbacks (Minimum 120 Pass
Attempts)
|
||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
AY/A
|
AY/R
|
Comp%
|
Sack%
|
Caleb Evans
|
3
|
ULM
|
74
|
210
|
8.51
|
7.79
|
61.34%
|
4.70%
|
Justice Hansen
|
4
|
ArSt
|
76
|
218
|
8.13
|
7.32
|
62.63%
|
6.00%
|
Dallas Davis
|
4
|
SALA
|
74
|
215
|
6.83
|
3.59
|
57.14%
|
5.90%
|
Jordan Davis
|
4
|
ULL
|
75
|
217
|
5.67
|
8.88
|
56.74%
|
5.30%
|
Shai Werts
|
2
|
GaSo
|
71
|
190
|
5.52
|
5.08
|
55.92%
|
13.60%
|
Cole Garvin
|
4
|
SALA
|
73
|
205
|
5.65
|
6.19
|
52.59%
|
5.70%
|
Running Backs (Minimum 12 Touches)
|
||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tou.
|
AY/R
|
AY/T
|
RBP>12
|
Jalin Moore
|
4
|
APP
|
71
|
207
|
197
|
6.86
|
10.13
|
17.66
|
Derrick Gore
|
4
|
ULM
|
70
|
212
|
178
|
4.24
|
12.9
|
13.31
|
Wesley Fields
|
4
|
GaSo
|
72
|
200
|
184
|
5.22
|
6.95
|
12.13
|
Warren Wand
|
4
|
ArSt
|
65
|
191
|
154
|
5.98
|
7.42
|
11.4
|
Trey Ragas
|
2
|
ULL
|
71
|
227
|
151
|
6.89
|
3.2
|
10.52
|
Anthony D. Taylor
|
3
|
TxSt
|
70
|
205
|
123
|
4.29
|
9.04
|
7.86
|
Wide Receivers (Minimum 18 Targets)
|
||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tar.
|
AY/T
|
Cat%
|
WRP>18
|
Penny Hart
|
3
|
GaSt
|
68
|
180
|
116
|
10.99
|
63.79%
|
14.33
|
Malcolm Williams
|
4
|
CoCa
|
70
|
185
|
67
|
13.9
|
64.18%
|
12.41
|
Justin McInnis
|
4
|
ArSt
|
78
|
210
|
72
|
12.18
|
68.06%
|
12.09
|
Marcus Green
|
4
|
ULM
|
68
|
191
|
85
|
11.1
|
64.71%
|
11.71
|
RJ Turner
|
3
|
ULM
|
74
|
204
|
62
|
12.93
|
62.90%
|
10.78
|
Ryheem Malone
|
4
|
ULL
|
60
|
187
|
69
|
10.92
|
63.77%
|
9.87
|
Thomas Hennigan
|
2
|
APP
|
74
|
210
|
68
|
10.59
|
66.18%
|
9.84
|
Deondre Douglas
|
4
|
Troy
|
73
|
197
|
76
|
9.28
|
63.16%
|
8.86
|
Devin Gentry
|
3
|
GaSt
|
70
|
190
|
18
|
17.61
|
66.67%
|
8.68
|
Jamarius Way
|
4
|
SALA
|
76
|
215
|
90
|
9.11
|
52.22%
|
8.07
|
Keenan Barnes
|
4
|
ULL
|
75
|
208
|
60
|
9.63
|
61.67%
|
7.71
|
Tight Ends (Minimum 12 Targets)
|
||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tar.
|
AY/T
|
Cat%
|
TEP>12
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
N/a
|
ULM is
looking solid with it’s offensive skill group. Evans is the best QB in the
league heading into the season and he brings back Marcus Green and RJ Turner
who combined for just shy of 150 targets and both caught >60% of their
targets and both went for at least 11 yards a target. Add in the third highest
returning touch player and you have an offense primed for a successful campaign.
The other team clearly in a good place with returning producers is Arkansas
State. Hansen is the only other QB who averaged 8+ AY/A and 7+ AY/R and
completed 60%+ of his pass attempts. He took more sacks than Evans but he’s the
only QB on the same level of Evans in the conference. Lastly, ULL looks like
primed to take a jump as well. Jordan Davis needs to make a leap in his senior
season but even a slight uptick in passing efficiency and he'll do enough with
his legs to lead a dynamic offense. I know I said lastly with ULL but let’s
just touch on Jalin Moore. Moore was pure dynamite in the passing game taking
targets for an average of 10+ yards, add in 6+ yards per carry and you have
yourself a player with a production score that would have topped the charts
last draft. If he can add touches and keep 85% of his efficiency he’s going to
be a breakout star by mid-season.
Top Returning Defensive Producers (Above average production)
Interior Defensive Linemen (INT)
(Minimum 12 Points)
|
|||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tkls
|
TFLs
|
Sacks
|
PDs
|
Points
|
Ty Phillips
|
3
|
GaSo
|
75
|
290
|
21
|
8
|
2
|
2
|
110.75
|
Jordan Mittie
|
3
|
TxSt
|
75
|
270
|
42
|
5.5
|
3.5
|
2
|
107.63
|
Marcus Webb
|
3
|
Troy
|
75
|
252
|
16.5
|
8.5
|
4
|
0
|
103.13
|
Antione Barker
|
3
|
Troy
|
75
|
253
|
15.5
|
6.5
|
3.5
|
1
|
96
|
Dontae Wilson
|
2
|
GaSt
|
72
|
285
|
19
|
5.5
|
4.5
|
0
|
83.63
|
Marerious Allen
|
4
|
GaSt
|
74
|
270
|
20
|
5
|
4
|
0
|
76
|
Christian Howard
|
4
|
ArSt
|
74
|
281
|
12
|
6
|
3
|
0
|
74.25
|
Demetrius Taylor
|
2
|
APP
|
73
|
246
|
10.5
|
5.5
|
3
|
0
|
69.88
|
Tyree Turner
|
3
|
SALA
|
73
|
290
|
18.5
|
4.5
|
3.5
|
0
|
67.75
|
C.J. Brewer
|
2
|
CoCa
|
74
|
280
|
24
|
2.5
|
2
|
2
|
67.5
|
Tarron Jackson
|
2
|
CoCa
|
74
|
265
|
15.5
|
4.5
|
3.5
|
0
|
67
|
Hunter Moreton
|
2
|
ArSt
|
73
|
293
|
16
|
5.5
|
2
|
0
|
63.5
|
Trevon Sanders
|
4
|
Troy
|
72
|
310
|
16
|
5
|
2.5
|
0
|
63.38
|
Okon Godwin
|
4
|
APP
|
74
|
250
|
15.5
|
6
|
1
|
0
|
59.63
|
Edge Rushers (EDGE) (Minimum 12
Points)
|
|||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tkls
|
TFLs
|
Sacks
|
PDs
|
Points
|
Frankie Griffin
|
4
|
TxSt
|
72
|
205
|
62.5
|
11
|
4
|
3
|
200.66
|
Hunter Reese
|
4
|
Troy
|
73
|
221
|
26.5
|
14
|
6.5
|
1
|
190.78
|
Ronheen Bingham
|
4
|
ArSt
|
74
|
241
|
16.5
|
8
|
5
|
0
|
135.34
|
Michael Shaw
|
4
|
GaSt
|
76
|
230
|
44.5
|
6
|
1.5
|
4
|
128.03
|
Logan Hunt
|
4
|
GaSo
|
74
|
270
|
26
|
11
|
5
|
0
|
126.19
|
Deshon Cooper
|
4
|
GaSo
|
75
|
250
|
18
|
3.5
|
1.5
|
7
|
118.66
|
Joe Dillon
|
3
|
ULL
|
75
|
232
|
22
|
7
|
4.5
|
0
|
107.63
|
Off-Ball Linebackers (OBLB)
(Minimum 12 Points)
|
|||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tkls
|
TFLs
|
Sacks
|
PDs
|
Points
|
Bryan London II
|
3
|
TxSt
|
74
|
232
|
71
|
3.5
|
0
|
5
|
100.24
|
Tron Folsom
|
3
|
Troy
|
74
|
218
|
65
|
9
|
0
|
4
|
94.65
|
David Griffith
|
4
|
ULM
|
73
|
209
|
60.5
|
8
|
2
|
1
|
73.96
|
Anthony Flory
|
4
|
APP
|
74
|
233
|
72
|
3.5
|
1
|
4
|
70.45
|
Bull Barge
|
4
|
SALA
|
70
|
225
|
59
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
67.46
|
Silas Kelly
|
2
|
CoCa
|
76
|
225
|
57
|
5.5
|
1.5
|
1
|
59.16
|
Trent Ellis-Brewer
|
3
|
ArSt
|
74
|
213
|
28
|
3.5
|
0
|
3
|
58.51
|
Chase Middleton
|
4
|
GaSt
|
74
|
235
|
51
|
3
|
1.5
|
2
|
49.02
|
Cornerbacks (CB) (Minimum 12
Points)
|
|||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tkls
|
TFLs
|
Sacks
|
PDs
|
Points
|
Clifton Duck
|
3
|
APP
|
70
|
175
|
43
|
3
|
1
|
12
|
110.25
|
Tae Hayes
|
4
|
APP
|
71
|
185
|
44
|
4
|
1.5
|
16
|
109.38
|
Monquavion Brinson
|
3
|
GaSo
|
71
|
175
|
31
|
0
|
0
|
17
|
107
|
Blace Brown
|
4
|
Troy
|
72
|
186
|
28
|
0
|
0
|
11
|
86
|
Justin Clifton
|
4
|
ArSt
|
72
|
204
|
53
|
4.5
|
0
|
14
|
72
|
Kindle Vildor
|
3
|
GaSo
|
71
|
180
|
19
|
1.5
|
1
|
10
|
70.25
|
Preston Carey
|
3
|
CoCa
|
71
|
165
|
22
|
2
|
0
|
12
|
67
|
Tobias Moss
|
3
|
SALA
|
69
|
180
|
25
|
0
|
0
|
10
|
54
|
Marcus Jones
|
2
|
Troy
|
69
|
170
|
42
|
2
|
0
|
8
|
53
|
Darian Mills
|
4
|
SALA
|
71
|
185
|
31
|
0
|
0
|
13
|
45.5
|
Corey Straughter
|
2
|
ULM
|
70
|
165
|
18
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
36.5
|
Anthony Chelsey
|
4
|
CoCa
|
71
|
185
|
46
|
2
|
0
|
8
|
34
|
Jerome Smith
|
4
|
GaSt
|
70
|
180
|
35
|
1
|
0
|
5
|
30
|
Free Safeties (FS) (Minimum 12
Points)
|
|||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tkls
|
TFLs
|
Sacks
|
PDs
|
Points
|
Nigel Lawrence
|
4
|
SALA
|
71
|
190
|
65
|
1.5
|
0
|
3
|
125.53
|
Cedarius Rookard
|
4
|
Troy
|
73
|
210
|
58.5
|
2
|
0
|
5
|
117.34
|
Corey Turner
|
4
|
ULL
|
73
|
204
|
55.5
|
6
|
1
|
4
|
109.34
|
RJ Murray
|
4
|
GaSo
|
72
|
205
|
50
|
4.5
|
0
|
2
|
105.34
|
Darreon Jackson
|
3
|
ArSt
|
72
|
204
|
43.5
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
91.09
|
DeAndre Applin
|
4
|
GaSt
|
73
|
210
|
39
|
2.5
|
0
|
4
|
87.41
|
A.J. Krawczyk
|
4
|
TxSt
|
71
|
195
|
64.5
|
0
|
0
|
1
|
80.09
|
Malcolm Buggs
|
4
|
SALA
|
69
|
205
|
30.5
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
63.66
|
Tyler Murray
|
2
|
Troy
|
73
|
186
|
13.5
|
1.5
|
1
|
1
|
62.19
|
Strong Safeties (SS) (Minimum 12
Points)
|
|||||||||
Player
|
Year
|
Team
|
Height
|
Weight
|
Tkls
|
TFLs
|
Sacks
|
PDs
|
Points
|
B.J. Edmonds
|
3
|
ArSt
|
72
|
206
|
61
|
0.5
|
0
|
7
|
101.09
|
Desmond Franklin
|
3
|
APP
|
74
|
204
|
40
|
2
|
0
|
6
|
95.48
|
Fitz Wattley
|
4
|
CoCa
|
71
|
210
|
63
|
0.5
|
0
|
4
|
88.71
|
Jashua Moon
|
4
|
GaSo
|
72
|
190
|
37.5
|
3.5
|
1
|
4
|
77.75
|
Michael Johnson
|
4
|
ArSt
|
73
|
200
|
32.5
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
51.19
|
Interior lineman is a bit weak in
the Sun Belt with nobody eclipsing the 5-sack mark and nobody accounting for greater
than 8 TFLs. That said the top five returning producers are all JRs and SOs so
there is room for growth and refinement. Troy has two of those young guys to
add to Hunter Reese, one of two stand out Edge players, and linebacker Tron
Folsom to make a solid front seven base to build from. The other elite pass
rusher here is Frankie Griffin from Texas State who needs to be more disruptive
against the pass but he and juniors Jordan Mittie (INT) and Bryan London II
(OBLB) form a front seven trio that can at least compete with Troy for the title
of best heading into the year. Troy continues the strong defensive look with a
trio of DBs that combined for a couple dozen pass breakups. Arkansas State
brings back four DBs that put up above average production although with higher
impact in space than in the air combining for 191 tackles. App State brings
back an extremely productive cornerback duo with Clifton Duck and Tae Hayes who
had 28 PDs combined as well as just shy of 90 tackles, add in Desmond Franklin (40
Tkls, 6 PDs) and you have a back four that should scare every team in the
conference. Overall, both Georgia teams have a player in just about every category
and should field solid defenses if unspectacular in any one group.
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