Record
Week
|
Straight Up
|
Against the Spread
|
1
|
92.3% (12-1)
|
42.3% (5-7-1)
|
2
|
78.6% (12-3)
|
50% (8-7)
|
3
|
72.7% (8-3)
|
72.7% (8-3)
|
Season
|
82.1% (32-7)
|
55.1% (21-17-1)
|
Week
3 was my best week personally this season. Yes, I was worse straight up, but I
had a better handle against the spread. 8-3 gets us back above 50% and
hopefully I can keep it rolling. Without further ado, on to me plummeting back
to earth. Now to the games.
Thursday,
September 24th, 2015:
Cincinnati
at Memphis, 6:30 pm ESPN
I
included this one because we should all be watching, Boise State, Memphis,
Bowling Green, and Temple as much as possible. Not to mention a handful of
others really excellent Group of Five squads. Cincinnati hung with Temple in a
game they should have been blown out of. That’s to say they’ve had flashes, but
Memphis is a different animal. I thought they were a one trick pony, with a
stout defense, but last week’s game with Bowling Green showed off a team that
could meet a variety of challenges. Memphis
by 13, 27-16.
Friday,
September 25th, 2015:
Boise
State at Virginia, 7:00 pm ESPN
Another
of those Group of Five teams, but this one has a road challenge against a
Virginia squad that showed flashes against UCLA and then took Notre Dame to the
wire. Boise has to go across the country and will be starting a new QB, and
that certainly matters, but I think Boise eeks out a close, hard fought game on
the road. Boise State, 27-20.
Saturday,
September 26th, 2015:
#22
BYU at Michigan, 11:00 am ABC
Central
Michigan at #2 Michigan State, 11:00 am BTN
#20
Georgia Tech at Duke, 11:00 am EPSN
#8
LSU at Syracuse, 11:00 am ESPN
Bowling
Green at Purdue, 11:00 am BTN
Solid
early slate of games Staurday, headlined by BYU-Michigan. Yes it’s not marquee,
and it doesn’t have the conference weight of Ga Tech-Duke, but I’m interested
to see how much Michigan takes advantage of the early game with a team coming
east. And how BYU responds off a tough loss against UCLA Saturday night. BYU, 24-23. CMU heads to East
Lansing, and as much as I want to be optimistic based on their fight put up
against Oklahoma State, I just can’t go too far. Michigan State, 38-13. Same goes for LSU-Syracuse, a game
that will almost assuredly be weird from start to finish in upstate New York. LSU, 31-10. The last two games
of the five both share a common theme… Teams who lost last week who I want to
see how they bounce back from the disappointment. Yes, Bowling Green already
had a loss, but the loss to Memphis was in a game in which they had control and
lost it to a similarly talented team. I think Bowling Green is clearly the more
talented team, and if Va Tech can beat Purdue through the air, well, Bowling Green gonna wreck some
shit, 48-27. Georgia Tech lost to a
Notre Dame team on its second starter, down a running back, and with a couple
losses during the game. All that while acknowledging that Notre Dame is damn
good. Tech now has to prepare to face Duke in their conference opener. Tech
takes care of business, but the first half hangover is something to watch for. Georgia Tech, 38-24.
Rice
at #5 Baylor, 2:00 pm
#24
Oklahoma State at Texas, 2:30 ESPN
Tennessee
at Florida, 2:30 pm CBS
UMASS
at #6 Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC
Western
Michigan at #1 Ohio State, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2
#3
TCU at Texas Tech, 3:45 pm FOX
Three
types of games during the afternoon set, top five teams against scrubs, top
five teams against solid above average opponents, and interesting conference
games involving big name teams. Baylor
and Notre Dame should romp, 48-17 and 31-13 respectively. The next set, include compelling games that
should help us clarify what we think of some of the top teams in the polls.
Ohio State welcomes the Fighting PJ. Flecks to the Horseshoe, and after last
week the Buckeyes have a lot to prove. NIU took Ohio State deep into the game
this week, and Western Michigan is, at worst, as good as the Huskies. Now, Ohio State probably won’t play
as poorly as they did last week, but WMU keeps it close into the second half, 45-17. As for TCU, they have a stiff
test in a Texas Tech team that is coming off an emotional win against Bert and
his Razorbacks. Now, it was a very good win for the Red Raiders but I think
everyone is getting ahead of themselves when it comes to how good Tech is and
is going to be. I see a shootout like last week, and yes I think TTU scores
more than SMU last week, but not much more. Call it 45, 55-45 TCU. Lastly are our pair of conference matchups with
underrated conference title impact. First up is Oklahoma State-Texas. I know
we’ve seen Texas struggle, but there was at least a spark against a good Cal
team, and I’m not sure Oklahoma State isn’t being overrated. The Cowboys took
more effort and time to beat CMU in the opener and Central Arkansas/UTSA don’t
tell us much. Now I’m not saying that I think Texas pulls the home upset, but I
wouldn’t immediately rule out the home dog here, Texas 28-27. As for our last afternoon game, Florida and
Tennessee meet up in the Swamp with one team undefeated, and it’s not Tennessee.
Florida has a great defense, and an offense still going through growing pains,
but Oklahoma and Bowling Green showed there’s a way to attack this defense, and
that they wear down. That combined with a very legit Florida defense and you
have the recipe for what I thought was a surprising outcome, but what Vegas has
as a near even game. I’ll take Florida,
17-14.
#14
Texas A&M at Arkansas, 6:00 pm ESPN
#9
UCLA at #16 Arizona, 7:00 pm ABC
#18
Utah at #13 Oregon, 7:30 pm FOX
The
late slate is a trio of very intriguing top #15 related contests. First up,
A&M-Arkansas, where I can’t shake the feeling that Bert, et al are going to
ruing Sumlin and A&M’s season. Now the counter point is that A&M and
Chavis have the talent and scheme to hold the Razorback offense in check. I
can’t give a logical reason to put my faith in Arkansas, but this is one of
those games where I’m certain if I don’t pick Arkansas they’re going to win, 38-35. After that a pair of Pac-12 games will take up our evening
on Saturday. UCLA heads to the desert to take on Arizona. On Wednesday we
learned that Myles Jack will miss the rest of the season with a knee injury.
That coincides with the rumored return of Scooby Wright for Arizona. This game
may be the biggest divisional matchup of the season, with the winner having a
huge advantage in the Pac-12 South when paired with the USC loss to Stanford.
I’m torn, but I think that Josh Rosen and UCLA
pull it off on the road and put themselves in the driver’s seat, 31-24. Lastly, Utah takes on Oreogn in
Autzen Stadium, in a matchup that pits one of the best defenses and underrated
teams, against a Oregon squad that has a bit of a QB conundrum and major
defensive issues. It’s in Autzen which is a great plus for Oregon, but give me
the Utes to spring the upset
in a semi-low scoring affair, 31-27.
#19
USC at Arizona State, 9:30 pm ESPN
Lastly,
the other big Pac-12 South game, USC at ASU in Tucson. As noted above USC is
already behind in the division race with a conference loss, but now it can get
even worse with a loss to a Arizona State team that may get overlooked. This
game should be a fun one and reminds me of that late night game in Tempe for
USC, but a loss here puts them in a huge hole and turns the heat to 10 on Sark,
Arizona State 24-21.
There
we are, let’s hope I can keep up my accuracy found last week.
