Rambling's Week 6 CFB Picks Review

Thursday, October 4th, 2012:

Arkansas State at Florida International, 6:30 pm ESPNU, Winner: 0-1 ATS: 0-1

#13 USC at Utah, 8:00 pm ESPN, Winner: 1-1 ATS: 1-1

Saturday, October 6th, 2012:

Kansas at #7 Kansas State, 11:00 am FX, Winner: 2-1 ATS: 2-1

Connecticut at #22 Rutgers, 11:00 am ESPNU, Winner: 3-1 ATS: 3-1

#24 Northwestern at Penn State, 11:00 am ESPN, Winner: 4-1 ATS: 3-2

#20 Mississippi State at Kentucky, 11:21 am SEC Network, Winner: 5-1 ATS: 4-2

Arizona at #18 Stanford, 2:00 pm FOX, Winner: 6-1 ATS: 4-3

#4 LSU at #10 Florida, 2:30 pm CBS, Winner: 6-2 ATS: 4-4

Georgia Tech at #15 Clemson, 2:30 pm ESPN, Winner: 7-2 ATS: 5-4

Iowa State at #15 TCU, 2:30 pm, Winner: 8-2 ATS: 6-4

#17 Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 2:30 pm ESPN2/ABC, Winner: 9-2 ATS: 7-4

Washington State at #14 Oregon State, 5:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Winner: 10-2 ATS: 7-5

#5 Georgia at #6 South Carolina, 6:00 pm ESPN, Winner: 10-3 ATS: 7-6

#8 West Virginia at #11 Texas, 6:00 pm FOX, Winner: 11-3 ATS: 8-6

Miami (FL) at #9 Notre Dame, 6:30 pm NBC, Winner: 12-3 ATS: 9-6

#3 Florida State at North Carolina State, 7:00 pm ESPN2, Winner: 12-4 ATS: 10-6

#21 Nebraska at #12 Ohio State, 7:00 pm ABC, Winner: 13-4 ATS: 11-6

#25 UCLA at California, 9:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Winner: 13-5 ATS: 11-7

#23 Washington at #2 Oregon, 9:30 pm ESPN, Winner: 14-5 ATS: 11-8

Rambling's Week 6 CFB Picks

Alright we're back for week 6 and we're diving full into the heart of conference season. Author's note: first 11 games posted 6:14 pm 10/4/12

Thursday, October 4th, 2012:

Arkansas State at Florida International, 6:30 pm ESPNU, I include this game because it will give us some insight into two teams that could be influential in the conference championship in the Sun Belt. The favorites currently are WKU and ULM for good reasons; both have beaten BCS foes and shown up big in the non-conference season. Arkansas State is in the first season of the Gus Malzahn era and is feeling some growing pains of a ne regime. Florida International is led by the steady Mario Cristoball and has a program that has figured prominently into the past couple conference races. Winner: FIU ATS: FIU +1.5

#13 USC at Utah, 8:00 pm ESPN, This game was billed as one of USC’s toughest tests at the start of the year as the Utes had a talented veteran team that figured to compete in the Pac-12 South. With a loss to Utah State and lackluster performances in the non-con many doubts have crept in about the success of the Utes season. USC on the other hand got manhandled by Stanford and has fallen from grace in many eyes around the country but this is still one of the two most talented teams in the Pac-12 and very near the top in the country. Winner: USC ATS: Utah +14

Saturday, October 6th, 2012:

Kansas at #7 Kansas State, 11:00 am FX, Remember when we all thought Charlie Weis was a genius and would revolutionize college football… Pepperidge Farms remembers. Winner: Kansas State ATS: Kansas State -24

Connecticut at #22 Rutgers, 11:00 am ESPNU, Rutgers got shelled by Rutgers last season and it really set the Scarlet Knights back… this year the gap between these two squads still exist and we get to see if Rutgers is ready to play and challenge Louisville in the Big East. Winner: Rutgers ATS: Rutgers -7

#24 Northwestern at Penn State, 11:00 am ESPN, Who would have thought we would be in this predicament, a solid above average Northwestern team coming to Happy Valley to face a Penn State team that hasn’t looked as god awful as many of us thought they would in year 1 after the Sandusky incident. Northwestern has been innovative with their use of Colter and should be able to challenge a still pretty good Penn State defense. Winner: Penn State ATS: Northwestern +3

#20 Mississippi State at Kentucky, 11:21 am SEC Network, With the end of baseball season I wanted to get this joke in once. Kentucky has a clown football team bro. Winner: Mississippi State ATS: Mississippi State -10

Arizona at #18 Stanford, 2:00 pm FOX, Arizona has played a couple of quality opponents tough but with Stanford coming off a rough loss to Washington on the road this week the Cardinal should be ready to prove the critics wrong and stomp the Wildcats. Winner: Stanford ATS: Stanford -9

#4 LSU at #10 Florida, 2:30 pm CBS, A matchup of two teams that should be dead center of the discussion about conference and divisional champs in the SEC this season. LSU is coming off back to back sloppy outings against Towson and Auburn, should still be firmly in the National Chapmionship discussion, however a big win against Florida would go a long way toward easing the fears surrounding this Tiger team. Florida on the other hand is a surprise contender after a couple of down years for the program, Will Muschamp has this team moving in a positive direction after a slow start against Bowling Green. The defenses will come ready to play, but who’s offense will provide enough to give themselves an advantage in the Southeastern Conference. Winner: LSU ATS: LSU -2.5

Georgia Tech at #15 Clemson, 2:30 pm ESPN, Oh my how our opinion on Georgia Tech has come crashing down since the season opener versus Virginia Tech, with a loss to an FCS team to boot Georgia Tech has a tough climb to weather before any trust can be placed. Clemson on the other hand comes off a hard fought game versus Florida State in which they held a double digit third quarter lead. Let’s see how Dabo’s team reacts after a tough loss. Winner: Clemson ATS: Clemson -10

Iowa State at #15 TCU, 2:30 pm, With today’s suspension of Casey Pachall this game takes on a new face. TCU hasn’t been a model of consistency this season and the loss of the staring QB 5 weeks in can only hurt that problem. The good news for TCU is that Iowa State hasn’t been all that good itself this season and Steele Jantz hasn’t captured our imaginations like last season. Winner: Iowa State ATS: Iowa State +10

#17 Oklahoma at Texas Tech, 2:30 pm ESPN2/ABC, A rematch of one of the biggest upsets of the 2011 season happens in Lubbock this weekend as Bob Stoops and Co. visit Tommy Tubberville’s Red Raiders. This game should feature points on both ends in the first half and the Oklahoma’s defense slowing down Tech in the second. (also the believed plot of last year’s game.) Winner: Oklahoma ATS: Oklahoma -5

Washington State at #14 Oregon State, 5:00 pm Pac-12 Network, I want to like Washington State because of Mike Leach but this team isn’t good yet. Oregon State may be the surprise of the year in any conference not just the Pac-12. Winner: Oregon State ATS: Oregon State -15

#5 Georgia at #6 South Carolina, 6:00 pm ESPN, Another marquee SEC game in week 6 and this one will go a long way in deciding the east. Georgia comes in playing the best football outside of Alabama. The defense had a few bumps against an average Tennessee team but they were shuffling players around with the return of two starters from suspension. South Carolina has gotten past the Connor Shaw injury and is running as smoothly as any team in the Old Ball Coaches tenure at the school. Winner: Georgia ATS: Georgia +1

#8 West Virginia at #11 Texas, 6:00 pm FOX, Texas gave up plenty of yards to a pretty good Oklahoma State team that will only get better this season, but still isn’t completely kicking. West Virginia is coming off a 70 point performance against air… I mean Baylor and should have a stiffer test versus a much better Texas D. I think they can put up enough to stress David Ash but will there be enough defense from the ‘Neers. Winner: West Virginia ATS: West Virginia +7

Miami (FL) at #9 Notre Dame, 6:30 pm NBC, Miami is better than they looked against Kansas State but Notre Dame is having a rejuvenation behind talent like Man’ti Teo and an elite defense. Winner: Notre Dame ATS: Notre Dame -14

#3 Florida State at North Carolina State, 7:00 pm ESPN2, Remember when we thought this would be a great test for the ‘Noles. A stout NC State defense has looked porous especially on the back end where they were supposed to be most talented. Florida State got through the USF game and can take another nice step in making believers in this year’s team with back to back road wins. Winner: Florida State ATS: NC State +17

#21 Nebraska at #12 Ohio State, 7:00 pm ABC, Let’s start out by saying these are the two best teams in the Big Ten (take a moment to be depressed it’s alright). Nebraska comes off a scrappy home win over Wisconsin last week in which they looked dominant on both lines in the second half. Ohio State won on the road in East Lansing and was just the latest team to take advantage of a MSU team that lacks for any real offensive substance. Winner: Ohio State ATS: Ohio State -3.5

#25 UCLA at California, 9:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Two teams headed in different directions as Mora has really turned around a down trending UCLA program, while Tedford continues to fail to live up to the promise of his early career. Winner: UCLA ATS: UCLA -2.5

#23 Washington at #2 Oregon, 9:30 pm ESPN, Which Washington team are we going to see in Autzen this week? Will it be the Huskies team that was outmanned in the Bayou or the Huskies team that was more physical than Stanford last week? The Washington team that shows up will dictate this game. Winner: Oregon ATS: Washington  +25

Rambling's Week 5 CFB Picks Recap

I still haven't gotten too much better against the spread this season but I've been stellar at picking winners.

Thursday, September 27^th, 2012

#8 Stanford at Washington, 8:00 pm ESPN,  Winner: 0-1 ATS: 0-1

Saturday, September 28^th, 2012,

#25 Baylor at #9 West Virginia, 11:00 am FX,  Winner: 0-2 ATS: 0-2

Arkansas at Texas A&M, 11:00 am SEC Network, Winner: 0-3 ATS: 0-3

Tennessee at #5 Georgia, 2:30 pm CBS,  Winner: 1-3 ATS: 0-4

#14 Ohio State at #20 Michigan State, 2:30 pm ABC,  Winner: 1-4 ATS: 0-5

#17 Clemson at Boston College, 2:30 pm ESPN2, Winner: 2-5 ATS: 0-6

#4 Florida State at USF, 5:00 pm ESPN,  Winner: 3-5 ATS: 0-7

#24 Boise State at New Mexico, 5:00 pm,  Winner: 4-5 ATS: 1-7

#6 South Carolina at Kentucky, 6:00 pm ESPN2,  Winner: 5-5 ATS: 1-7-1

#15 TCU at SMU, 6:00 pm,  Winner: 6-5 ATS: 2-7-1

#12 Texas at Oklahoma State, 6:50 pm FOX,  Winner: 7-5 ATS: 3-7-1

#19 Louisville at Southern Miss, 7:00 pm CBS Sports Net,  Winner: 8-5 ATS: 4-7-1

Ole Miss at #1 Alabama, 8:15 pm ESPN, Low tide to start the game, then the Tide rolled. Winner: 9-5 ATS: 4-8-1

#18 Oregon State at Arizona, 9:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Still not sure why Oregon State was the underdog in this game, aside from just seeing two games of Oregon State there was no denying this team was much better than most of us thought. Arizona came in off a thrashing from Oregon and having beat Oklahoma State, a team that may or may not be good. Oregon State squeaked it out late and continues to make a good impression to start the season. Winner: 10-5 ATS: 5-8-1 

#2 Oregon at Washington State, 9:30 pm ESPN2, The first half of this game remained much closer than many expected it too, but Oregon made key halftime adjustments and rolled in the 3rd quarter like you'd expect Oregon to do. Washington State is showing flashes but Lech and co. don't have the talent just yet to be too big of a thorn in the top of the Pac-12's sides. Winner: 11-5 ATS: 5-9-1

Week 5 brought my overall record to 68-23 overall and 43-45-1 against the spread. Sorry for the incomplete, still trying to work out a schedule for writing. I've been a bit too inconsistent this season.

Rambling's Week 5 CFB Picks

I got some early games out tonight in time for Thursday night's game between the Cardinal and Huskies. The rest will be up tomorrow evening.

Thursday, September 27^th, 2012

#8 Stanford at Washington, 8:00 pm ESPN, Stanford visits Washington for their first road conference game of the post-Andrew Luck era, and things are definitely looking more positive than many expected. Stanford’s upset win of USC has left us wondering if the Cardinal are better than we thought or the Trojans are worse. I think most of us underrated the Cardinal a bit but this week’s contest should tell us more. Washington hasn’t really taken the leap in the Steve Sarkisian era that many were expecting, a blowout loss at LSU in week 2 quelled none of the fears in Washington. Winner: Stanford ATS: Stanford -6.5

Saturday, September 28^th, 2012,

#25 Baylor at #9 West Virginia, 11:00 am FX, I like Baylor post RGIII so far but I just don’t see the explosiveness on offense that it takes to beat West Virginia on the road. Baylor’s defense should have some success with a talented secondary, however if you can’t put up the points in bunches you’re gonna have a tough time beating West Virginia. Winner: West Virginia ATS: West Virginia -11.5

Arkansas at Texas A&M, 11:00 am SEC Network, Two teams that can comfort each other about their respective disappointments. A&M hasn’t been able to shake the stench of Mike Sherman off it’s team which in their first SEC game gave up a halftime lead to what we now realize was a pretty good Florida team. Arkansas followed up a disappointing overtime loss to ULM, with an even more disappointing showing a week later. Tyler Wilson’s return should help this team against a pretty good A&M team. Winner: Arkansas ATS: Arkansas +14

Tennessee at #5 Georgia, 2:30 pm CBS, Georgia continues to look very good this season on both sides of the ball, they welcome Tennessee this week. After a horrible second half against Florida, Tennessee doesn’t seem as far along as many thought after their thrashing of North Carolina St. Georgia is the best team the Vols have faced and I think the talent wins out at home this week. Winner: Georgia ATS: Georgia -13.5

#14 Ohio State at #20 Michigan State, 2:30 pm ABC, Ohio State travels to East Lansing for their first real test of the season and their Big Ten opener and these two teams are in similar positions heading into this game. Ohio State hasn't lost but weak showings against Cal and UAB in back to back weeks which is a bit of a concerns heading into a game against such a stout defense. Michigan State lost to Notre Dame in ugly fashion two weeks ago and a win versus Eastern Michigan that took another ridiculous effort by Le'Veon Bell. Winner: Michigan State ATS: MSU -2.5

#17 Clemson at Boston College, 2:30 pm ESPN2, This game will be closer than many think, in my opinion as BC has some talent on offense and Clemson may very well have a hangover from a tough second half loss to Florida State on the road. BC isn't a great team but we've seen some flashes and in a not so deep ACC they should have a better overall record this year. Clemson is talented but a step behind FSU already and this game becomes an interesting bounce back game. Winner: Clemson ATS: BC +9

#4 Florida State at USF, 5:00 pm ESPN, If this is typical Florida State this is a loss, if this is a slightly better FSU this is a close win and if they have turned the corner Florida State win this one sometime in the third quarter and coast to the victory. Winner: Florida State ATS: FSU -17

#24 Boise State at New Mexico, 5:00 pm, Boise is down, but not this down. Winner: Boise State ATS: New Mexico +26.5

#6 South Carolina at Kentucky, 6:00 pm ESPN2, Kentucky got kicked around by a talented but inconsistent Florida team, South Carolina should put this away early and get ready for next week. Winner: South Carolina ATS: South Carolina -21

#15 TCU at SMU, 6:00 pm, This game has been close the last couple of years and TCU comes in playing really sloppy offensive football. June Jones doesn't have his best team at SMU and could have a bit of a meh season. TCU should win this game as they have the most talent, but playing on the road for a sloppy team is always a challenge because you don't wanna give the crowd a reason to disrupt you. Winner: TCU ATS: SMU +16

#12 Texas at Oklahoma State, 6:50 pm FOX, Texas travels to Stillwater for it's first real test of the season. Texas has so far looked better than they have at any time since Colt McCoy era and has their best defense in recent memory. Oklahoma State seems to have a bit of an uncertainty at the Quarterback position but the offensive staff their is excellent and should produce a very good game plan. The defense is the worry and David Ash has been effective if not spectacular and should be able to have success moving the ball against the 'Boys. Winner: Texas ATS: Texas -2

#19 Louisville at Southern Miss, 7:00 pm CBS Sports Net, Even without Larry Fedora I thought Southern Miss would have a chance to have a good season but with the last few results that doesn't seem to be in the cards for the Golden Eagles. Speaking of Cards, Louisville comes into the game with some close wins but nothing that gives great confidence in this team to put away teams and leave no doubt as to the outcome. Winner: Louisville ATS: Southern Miss +10.5

Ole Miss at #1 Alabama, 8:15 pm ESPN, Remember when Texas romped in Mississippi? Yeah Alabama gonna roll. Winner: Alabama ATS: Alabama -30

#18 Oregon State at Arizona, 9:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Oregon State appears to be much better than just about anyone thought, but with a second year starter at QB and a front seven that has been nasty so far the Beavers have made a huge impression in their games against UCLA and Wisconsin (a deflated Wisco, but still.). Arizona looked very good against Oklahoma State earlier in the year and outmatched against Oregon this week. The 'Cats should give the Beavers defense a challenge this week but I think the defense holds and this comes down to the less thought of units. Winner: Oregon State ATS: Oregon State +2.5 

#2 Oregon at Washington State, 9:30 pm ESPN2, I really want to say that this game will be exciting because I want a classic Leach team but he doesn't have the talent yet in Pullman and that means that Wazzou has no chance to keep up with a very talented Ducks team. Winner: Oregon ATS: Oregon -29.5

Well there we have it another week of picks submitted and already a loss by the time I've finished... not sure there is an elite Pac-12 team but I think there is very nice depth out west. Enjoy week 5.

Rambling's Week 4 CFB Picks Review

It was a very interesting and telling week for some upper tier teams and the picture of the best teams in each conference continues to clarify as we head into conference schedules for all leagues. 

Thursday, September 20th, 2012:

BYU at #24 Boise State, 8:00 pm ESPN, This was an ugly game for both teams and a game that showcased the limitations that we've seen out of both teams this year in early season losses. Inefficiencies on offense will hamper the success of these teams but both should have shots at double digit win seasons. P.S. Boise isn't a top 25 team. Winner: 1-0 ATS: 1-0 

Baylor at ULM, 7:00 pm ESPN, I think the last three weeks have shown us that, A) ULM is a pretty solid team, and B) Arkansas should be a little less ashamed of what happened a couple weeks back. This game was close but Baylor got out by two scores and did a nice job finishing. ULM should be the class of the Sun Belt this season which should provide us with a good amount of fun. Winner: 2-0 ATS: 2-0

Maryland at #8 West Virginia, 11:00 am FX, Is Maryland better than we thought, and based on the first 4 weeks I think we have to say yes, or was this an anomalous game for a talented West Virginia team? I'm gonna go with both being true but we will know more after WVU's Big XII opener this weekend against Baylor. Maryland won't be pretty to watch but i suspect should cause some trouble in the ACC. Winner: 3-0 ATS: 2-1

Kentucky at #14 Florida, 11:00 am SECN, This was everything we thought it would be and it was just awful from Kentucky. Winner: 4-0 ATS: 3-1

UAB at #16 Ohio State, 11:00 am BTN, There is definitely reason for concern in Columbus, because the words shut down by UAB should never have been written about Braxton Miller. Winner: 5-0 ATS: 4-1 

Virginia at #17 TCU, 11:00 am ESPN, What happened at Virginia this year, strides had been taken the last few years at Virginia to the point where they were challenging for a division crown. This years story is much different and there seems to be if not regression some stagnation of progress for the Cavaliers. TCU is churning out victories but doesn't have one that makes you stop and stare. As Big XII competition churns into gear we should get a better bearing on Gary Patterson's ball club. Winner: 6-0 ATS: 4-1

Missouri at #7 South Carolina, 2:30 pm CBS, Missouri has a good team but they don’t have the horses to keep up with top teams in the SEC on offense nor the studs to give their offense a chance to put up enough. South Carolina will be a tough out for Georgia this season and the Old Ball Coach has a shot a division and conference title. Winner: 7-0 ATS: 5-1

Oregon State at #19 UCLA, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, First off, I was wrong. Oregon State is legit on defense especially in the front 7 where they dominated this game. UCLA is much improved this season so far under Mora but still have some flaws with depth and talent.Winner: 7-1 ATS: 5-2

Eastern Michigan at #21 Michigan State, 2:30 pm BTN, Michigan State fans have much to worry about coming into this game as they needed another Herculean performance out of Le’Veon Bell. The Big Ten is down but Michigan State may not be as equipped as once thought to win this conference. Winner: 8-1 ATS: 5-3

Florida Atlantica at #1 Alabama, 4:00 pm ESPN3, ‘Bama’s good, a 50 point spread is a major tease. Winner: 9-1 ATS: 6-3

California at #13 USC, 5:00 pm Pac-12, USC wasn’t flashy again and maybe this should have been a warning sign two weeks ago against Syracuse. Depth is the major issue in LA and there is no amount of coaching that can fix that or the luck of injuries. Cal is what Cal is, they are a solid team that doesn’t do enough to win the games they shouldn’t but enough to win 80% of the games they should. Winner: 10-1 ATS: 7-3

#2 LSU at Auburn, 6:00 pm ESPN, I’m willing to give LSU a pass on this one as they have looked dominant, especially in the Washington game. Auburn isn’t good, but they have the talent to bother some people; LSU can’t really afford to stumble against such an average opponent if they want to keep the benefit of the doubt. Winner: 11-1 ATS: 7-4

#20 Louisville at Florida International, 6:00 pm ESPN3, FIU isn’t spectacular but this win marks another step in Charlie Strong’s tenure at the ‘Ville. They are winning when they should and now just need to show they can win convincingly against a quality opponent. Winner: 12-1 ATS: 7-5

South Alabama at #23 Mississippi State, 6:00 pm ESPN3, Is it possible that we were a year early on the maturation of the Mississippi State program. They asserted themselves as a thorn to LSU & Alabama in the west with their pipe laying against Auburn. Winner: 13-1 ATS: 8-5

#18 Michigan at #11 Notre Dame, 6:30 pm NBC, This Golden Domers defense is definitely for real as they have now beat up on three straight opponents and have played well sideline to sideline. Montae Ta’o is an absolute beast and may be the best linebacker in the nation. Michigan may end up being this season’s biggest disappointment as we all jumped the gun on this squad improving coming into the year. They still have a shot to win the Big Ten, because I’m pretty sure someone has to. Winner: 13-2 ATS: 8-6

Vanderbilt at #5 Georgia, 6:45pm ESPN2, The SEC has a significantly dominant upper tier of teams and a soft squishy center. Georgia has proven that it has the team to be the favorite to have the shot to beat LSU or Bama in Atlanta. Vanderbilt is disappointing in their worst loss in half a decade. They can still be around .500 because the middle of the SEC is that weak but I think it falls short of expectations.Winner: 14-2 ATS: 8-7

#15 Kansas State at #6 Oklahoma, 6:50 pm FOX, Nobody messes up a chance to cement themselves as National Champ contenders quite like the Oklahoma Sooners. Kansas State is indeed better than we thought they were, a great road win for Bill Snyder’s team sets them apart from any other Big XII team. Winner: 14-3 ATS: 9-7

#1 t0 Clemson at #4 Florida State, 7:00 pm ABC, Speaking Could we see Jimbo Fischer’s FSU turning a corner this year, a talented defense has matured and is a real force for the ‘Noles. Clemson is a good team this year, maybe even a very good team but they are not an elite team this year and that was born out in the second half against Florida State, they were outscored by 21 after holding a 31-21 lead and failed to show what many expected of this iteration of the Tigers. Winner: 15-3 ATS: 10-7

#22 Arizona at #3 Oregon, 9:30 pm ESPN, I think at the moment we can say that Oregon is the second best team in the country and might be the best Oregon team we have seen in the best couple years. Arizona will be a good team and is clearly better than Washington and the much of the rest of the middle of the Pac-12 but they aren’t close to Oregon, Stanford or USC right now. Winner: 16-3 ATS: 10-8