A conference that just a decade ago was dominated by one team now has had an impressive duo at the top since the Reggie Bush saga but a damper on USC. Oregon an Stanford have represented the Pac-12 in the BCS the last four years and both have made BCS bowls in two of those four but they fall at the bottom of this tier because there have been some breakouts but nothing sustained and a very weak bottom. UCLA, Oregon State, Arizona, Washington and California have all shown flashes but none has been able to sustain that success the way Oregon and Stanford have sustained their jump. Overall the Pac-12 has a strong top a deep middle but also a deep bottom of the conference. (B1G, ACC, MWC and Conference rank previews)
North: |last year W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Oregon|12-1, 8, 7, 73%, 72.5%| Oregon loses Chip Kelly to the NFL but he likely would not have been part of this team because of the NCAA's show-cause penalty. He is replaced by Mark Helfrich, who has been on the staff at Oregon since 2009 and has spent the majority of his coaching career in the Pac-12. Even with the loss of Kelly and a few players to graduation and the NFL, this is still a very talented team that returns a majority of players. Mariotta and Thomas come back on offense and that should scare any team on the Ducks schedule. The key question will be whether a defense that was bad but wasn't far above average can take a step up with talent returning. This team looks like it can and should create another great race in the Pac-12 North.
Worst Team: Washington State|3-9, 7, 8, 83.9%, 85%| We all love Mike Leach, I mean who doesn't love a modern day pirate in college football, but that doesn't help him with the talent inherited by his staff at Wazzou. They have a lot coming back and with Leach on offense that should be a plus but on defense they don't have the players to make much noise in the Pac-12.
Intriguing Team: Stanford|12-2, 8, 7, 30.9%, 80.6%| Stanford was also considered for best team and why shouldn't they have been. Stanford has been equally as good as Oregon the last four years or so and beat the Ducks last season. Kevin Hogan returns at quarterback this season but he loses a lot of help on offense, both of his main TE targets were maybe the most important. They do however bring a lot of experience back on the line and that should create the opportunity for offensive success. On defense the 3-4 football that the Cardinal play brings back most of last years contributors to a top 10 defense. This is a team that has kept Oregon in check for most of the past two games and should make them challengers for the Pac-12 and national championships.
South:
Best Team: USC|7-6, 8, 7, 47%, 69.3%| The biggest question for USC is at quarterback and then most recently if there will be long term ramifications with the Lee injury. USC has recruited well at QB and should be able to find a serviceable replacement and starter but the bigger question is whether for the 3rd year in a row a lack of death will lead to crippling attrition. The defense should be much better and I have faith that the replacement of Monte Kiffin will be a positive that will show a better diffence.
Worst Team: Colorado|1-11, 10, 7, 80.4%, 77.8%| This program is a mess and Mike McIntyre was a great hire but 2013 will be as bleak as the past couple because the talent on this team is Sun Belt level in a top tier conference. There are not a whole lot of bright spots, so let's just watch the Buffaloes season and hope that someone breaks out and gives all of us a reason to chear for Colorado.
Intriguing Team: UCLA|9-5, 7, 6, 67.9%, 59.5%| Most will have the Bruins as the best team in the Pac-12 south and I see the logic in this UCLA won the division last year and beat USC under the tutelage of Coach Mora. I think, however, that people are underestimating the losses of the best players on both sides of the ball in Jonathan Franklin and Datone Jones. Jones was a disruptive force who played in the opponents backfield and forced QB pressures that helped to mask some of the secondary issues they had last year. Jonathan Franklin keyed everything on offense last year, Hundley made strides but Franklin was the threat that defenses schemed for. This is all to say that UCLA is going to be good again this year, the last was certainly not a fluke but I think the Bruins may come up short.
Conference Standings:
North: Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington, California, Washington State
Legends: USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, Colorado
Championship Game: USC at Oregon Winner: Oregon
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
2013 CFB Season Preview: Big Ten
The Big Ten stays put at 12 teams this season with Rutgers and Maryland headed to the conference next season. The conference should be a bit better at the top this season with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska and Northwestern as solid to 25 teams and the first five all have the ability to be anywhere from 5-15 for most of the season. The big question will be whether we continue to see the improvement at the quarterback position to make that jump possible and see better post season results. The bottom with Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue isn't going to help with perception issues but a strong top cures all issues. (ACC, MWC and Conference rank previews)
Leaders: |last year W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Ohio State|12-0, 9, 4, 95.3%, 53.5%| Let's start with the worries for this year's squad. The Buckeyes lose the entirety of D-Line and a good chunk of the O-Line, even with those concerns optimism runs high in Columbus. Urban Meyer has a track record of success in the second year, both at Florida and at Utah, plus Meyer brings back Braxton Miller at QB and lots of skill position talent (95% of last year's yards coming back). On defense they should have enough talent from the last couple recruiting classes to fill holes and should be carried by a pretty good secondary.
Worst Team: Illinois|2-10, 9, 3, 92.7%, 56.2%| Ron Zook left nothing in the cupboard for Tim Beckman and his staff. I shouldn't say nothing, I'm sure the kids left behind from the Ron Zook era are good kids but the football talent is weak at best and a 2-10 record tells all you need to know. 12 returning starters total should be a sign of optimism but, as has been the case with most of my worst teams, a lot of non-talented returing starters isn't going to be much help. Illinois needs to bring some talent on the roster but patience is the key for Beckman going into and coming out of year 2.
Intriguing Team: Wisconsin|8-6, 8, 7, 75.4%, 66.4%| Wisconsin did the semi-impossible, they followed a living legend at coach with his handpicked replacement and he managed to take the program to arguably even greater heights. Bielema is now gone for the Ozark but his time the Badgers went outside the program to find his replacement. Gary Anderson takes over a program in great shape but possibly at the zenith of its potential. Anderson's resume speaks for itself and his rebuilding of Utah State was a masterpiece of coaching, his new Wisconsin team will certainly be less of a project but not without its challenges. Anderson and staff will be transitioning the defense to a 3-4 and the lack of depth along the line should make the transition good along with an underrated linebacker corps. The core competency for this team will still be its ability to run the ball with James White and Melvin Gordon behind one of the best offensive lines in the county once again.
Legends:
Best Team: Nebraska|10-4, 9, 4, 80%, 34.3%| The offense will be potent in Lincoln this season with an abundance of talent returning, Taylor Martinez at QB, Kenny Bell at WR and only the loss of Rex Burkhead as a major contributor from last year's team. The o-line returns a lot of talent as well which should continue to open up big lanes for the offense. The defense is another story all together, with only a third of the tackles returning and more than a few years of disappointing if not bad play on defense has left much to be desired from the Blackshirts. The success of this team will rest at the feet of Pelini and staff to maximize the talent on defense to allow the offense to win what are shaping up to be shootouts.
Worst Team: Iowa|4-8, 7, 7, 48.7%, 72.8%| I'm not sure what happened in Iowa City, Ferentz had this team performing above expectations most years and competing for championships ocsaionally. Then AIRBHG kicked in, the team had some bad bounces and the overall quality of the team dropped off. The talent on defense has still been there but the graduating students at Iowa haven't seen quality quarterbacking in their time at the #1 party school in the country. The defense should be stout again but will there be any offense to speak of this year or will Hawkeye fans wish they were drunk all season.
Intriguing Team: Michigan|8-5, 6, 6, 54.1%, 69.3%| Michigan enters the year with fewer questions at the quarterback position but with the same issues on defense they have had for the last 8 years it seems. With their best defensive lineman injured and a secondary that underperformed just about every standard last year I can't shake the feeling that the defense won't be able to make much improvement this season. The offense on the other hand should benefit from the stability of Devon Gardner being in control all offseason and the return of much of the skill positions will be a major plus. Lastly Taylor Lewan will hold down an above average offensive line that will give the skill guys the ability to use thier highly recruited talents to their fullest potential.
Conference Standings:
Leaders: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois
Legends: Nebraska, Michigan State, Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa
Championship Game: Ohio State vs. Nebraska Winner: Ohio State
Leaders: |last year W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Ohio State|12-0, 9, 4, 95.3%, 53.5%| Let's start with the worries for this year's squad. The Buckeyes lose the entirety of D-Line and a good chunk of the O-Line, even with those concerns optimism runs high in Columbus. Urban Meyer has a track record of success in the second year, both at Florida and at Utah, plus Meyer brings back Braxton Miller at QB and lots of skill position talent (95% of last year's yards coming back). On defense they should have enough talent from the last couple recruiting classes to fill holes and should be carried by a pretty good secondary.
Worst Team: Illinois|2-10, 9, 3, 92.7%, 56.2%| Ron Zook left nothing in the cupboard for Tim Beckman and his staff. I shouldn't say nothing, I'm sure the kids left behind from the Ron Zook era are good kids but the football talent is weak at best and a 2-10 record tells all you need to know. 12 returning starters total should be a sign of optimism but, as has been the case with most of my worst teams, a lot of non-talented returing starters isn't going to be much help. Illinois needs to bring some talent on the roster but patience is the key for Beckman going into and coming out of year 2.
Intriguing Team: Wisconsin|8-6, 8, 7, 75.4%, 66.4%| Wisconsin did the semi-impossible, they followed a living legend at coach with his handpicked replacement and he managed to take the program to arguably even greater heights. Bielema is now gone for the Ozark but his time the Badgers went outside the program to find his replacement. Gary Anderson takes over a program in great shape but possibly at the zenith of its potential. Anderson's resume speaks for itself and his rebuilding of Utah State was a masterpiece of coaching, his new Wisconsin team will certainly be less of a project but not without its challenges. Anderson and staff will be transitioning the defense to a 3-4 and the lack of depth along the line should make the transition good along with an underrated linebacker corps. The core competency for this team will still be its ability to run the ball with James White and Melvin Gordon behind one of the best offensive lines in the county once again.
Legends:
Best Team: Nebraska|10-4, 9, 4, 80%, 34.3%| The offense will be potent in Lincoln this season with an abundance of talent returning, Taylor Martinez at QB, Kenny Bell at WR and only the loss of Rex Burkhead as a major contributor from last year's team. The o-line returns a lot of talent as well which should continue to open up big lanes for the offense. The defense is another story all together, with only a third of the tackles returning and more than a few years of disappointing if not bad play on defense has left much to be desired from the Blackshirts. The success of this team will rest at the feet of Pelini and staff to maximize the talent on defense to allow the offense to win what are shaping up to be shootouts.
Worst Team: Iowa|4-8, 7, 7, 48.7%, 72.8%| I'm not sure what happened in Iowa City, Ferentz had this team performing above expectations most years and competing for championships ocsaionally. Then AIRBHG kicked in, the team had some bad bounces and the overall quality of the team dropped off. The talent on defense has still been there but the graduating students at Iowa haven't seen quality quarterbacking in their time at the #1 party school in the country. The defense should be stout again but will there be any offense to speak of this year or will Hawkeye fans wish they were drunk all season.
Intriguing Team: Michigan|8-5, 6, 6, 54.1%, 69.3%| Michigan enters the year with fewer questions at the quarterback position but with the same issues on defense they have had for the last 8 years it seems. With their best defensive lineman injured and a secondary that underperformed just about every standard last year I can't shake the feeling that the defense won't be able to make much improvement this season. The offense on the other hand should benefit from the stability of Devon Gardner being in control all offseason and the return of much of the skill positions will be a major plus. Lastly Taylor Lewan will hold down an above average offensive line that will give the skill guys the ability to use thier highly recruited talents to their fullest potential.
Conference Standings:
Leaders: Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois
Legends: Nebraska, Michigan State, Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa
Championship Game: Ohio State vs. Nebraska Winner: Ohio State
Sunday, August 4, 2013
2013 CFB Season Preview: ACC
I previously previewed the Mountain West conference and did a ranking of the conferences this off-season. The ACC comes into the year off a postseason that saw Clemson and Florida State winning BCS bowl games, the former over LSU and the later over Northern Illinois. 2013 also sees the first of two seasons of changes to the league membership with the addition of Syracuse and Pitt to the conference. Syracuse will join Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, NC State, Boston College and Wake Forest in the Atlantic; Pittsburgh will join, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia and Georgia Tech in the Coastal. The conference might once again have two participants in the BCS but the second more than likely won't be as strong and Pittsburgh will certainly make the bottom of the league worse.
Atlantic: |last year W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Clemson|11-2, 7, 6, 67%, 64%| Clemson certainly loses some pieces from last years team, but the return of Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins should help to offset the loss of Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins to the NFL. There is still plenty of talent thanks to an uptick in recruiting under Dabo. Defense will still have some issues but they will only have to do so much with an offense that should put up points in droves.
Worst Team: Wake Forest|5-7, 8, 8, 85%, 65%| Wake Forest brings back a good amount of talent on both sides of the ball, although how much will that really make a difference. A bad team in 2012 returns much of the same core for 2013 begs a question of how much hope there is and with the other teams at the bottom of the Atlantic (division not ocean) looking in better shape than '12 as well Wake looks poised to stay much closer to the bottom of the conference than the top.
Intriguing Team: Florida State|12-2, 7, 4, 43.5%, 64%| Florida State loses a boatload of talent this off-season as is reflected in their returning yards this season. The biggest of which may be at QB and DE. The biggest question should be whether precious and talented youngsters can step up and fill in the many holes left on both sides of the ball. Also good luck guessing which easy win is a loss on the schedule.
Coastal:
Best Team: Miami (FL)|7-5, 10, 9, 84%, 79%| Miami brings back a team that outdid most projections in 2012. This was a team left for dead with bowl sanctions and distractions left and right. Miami brings back a sophmore who broke on the scene as a freshman at running back and enough talent to make them favorite in the Coastal. Returing talent shouldn't be the issue but with the NCAA ruling reining over them again this season the distarction still has the ability to derail what should be a successful team for Al Golden and co.
Worst Team: Pittsburgh|6-7, 5, 9, 21%, 76%| This is a team that lost to Youngstown State in 2012 and almost beat Notre Dame as well. The season turned out middling at best and that is probably the best thing that could be said. Most of the offense is gone from last year and a couple of dismal recruiting seasons leave little to get excited about in the Steel City. The defense has a chance to be fringe average to above average which will ultimately just make this season worse because of low scoring affairs with little excitement.
Intriguing Team: Virginia Tech|7-6, 4, 9, 66%, 76.5%| 2012 was a disappointing year for the Hokies, with a defense that wasn't up to par and an offense led by Logan Thomas. The Hokies underperformed the expectation of a Frank Beamer team and there in lies the problem, we expect Beamer's teams to win the Coastal even if it isn't the best team in the division. Logan Thomas will be the key here, Thomas was sub-par in decision making but he still has the ability to make a major difference on every game.
Conference Standings:
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida State, Syracuse, Maryland, NC State, Boston College, Wake Forest
Coastal: Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
Championship Game: Miami (FL) Winner: Clemson
Atlantic: |last year W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Clemson|11-2, 7, 6, 67%, 64%| Clemson certainly loses some pieces from last years team, but the return of Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins should help to offset the loss of Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins to the NFL. There is still plenty of talent thanks to an uptick in recruiting under Dabo. Defense will still have some issues but they will only have to do so much with an offense that should put up points in droves.
Worst Team: Wake Forest|5-7, 8, 8, 85%, 65%| Wake Forest brings back a good amount of talent on both sides of the ball, although how much will that really make a difference. A bad team in 2012 returns much of the same core for 2013 begs a question of how much hope there is and with the other teams at the bottom of the Atlantic (division not ocean) looking in better shape than '12 as well Wake looks poised to stay much closer to the bottom of the conference than the top.
Intriguing Team: Florida State|12-2, 7, 4, 43.5%, 64%| Florida State loses a boatload of talent this off-season as is reflected in their returning yards this season. The biggest of which may be at QB and DE. The biggest question should be whether precious and talented youngsters can step up and fill in the many holes left on both sides of the ball. Also good luck guessing which easy win is a loss on the schedule.
Coastal:
Best Team: Miami (FL)|7-5, 10, 9, 84%, 79%| Miami brings back a team that outdid most projections in 2012. This was a team left for dead with bowl sanctions and distractions left and right. Miami brings back a sophmore who broke on the scene as a freshman at running back and enough talent to make them favorite in the Coastal. Returing talent shouldn't be the issue but with the NCAA ruling reining over them again this season the distarction still has the ability to derail what should be a successful team for Al Golden and co.
Worst Team: Pittsburgh|6-7, 5, 9, 21%, 76%| This is a team that lost to Youngstown State in 2012 and almost beat Notre Dame as well. The season turned out middling at best and that is probably the best thing that could be said. Most of the offense is gone from last year and a couple of dismal recruiting seasons leave little to get excited about in the Steel City. The defense has a chance to be fringe average to above average which will ultimately just make this season worse because of low scoring affairs with little excitement.
Intriguing Team: Virginia Tech|7-6, 4, 9, 66%, 76.5%| 2012 was a disappointing year for the Hokies, with a defense that wasn't up to par and an offense led by Logan Thomas. The Hokies underperformed the expectation of a Frank Beamer team and there in lies the problem, we expect Beamer's teams to win the Coastal even if it isn't the best team in the division. Logan Thomas will be the key here, Thomas was sub-par in decision making but he still has the ability to make a major difference on every game.
Conference Standings:
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida State, Syracuse, Maryland, NC State, Boston College, Wake Forest
Coastal: Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
Championship Game: Miami (FL) Winner: Clemson
Monday, July 29, 2013
2013 CFB Season Preview: Mountain West
The Mountain West sits in my sixth position among conferences, this is a bit controversial what with the American still having an automatic BCS birth but the top is a bit firmer and the bottom is comparable but I like the top half a bit more so lets move on. This is the first year of a twelve team Mountain West with the addition of Utah State and San Jose State to the fold, these additions allow for divisions and a championship game. Let's take a moment to set up the divisions: West: Fresno State, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State and UNLV Mountain: Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico, Utah State and Wyoming. An easy split to remember as it is along time zone lines and a fairly equitable split now and long term, the division the conference was done well and that should take just about any confusion out of the matter. So let us dig in we'll start first in the...
West: |last years W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %Yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Fresno State|9-4, 7, 6, 76%, 64%| Fresno enters the year as the favorite in the West division of the Mountain West. The West is the weaker of the two divisions with more questions about contending teams than there are in the Mountain. Fresno State had a bit of a lull in it's output in the last couple of years but last years squad made a good step forward which has helped push their stock skyward. With 13 of 22 starters returning and three quarters of their offensive output from a year ago returning the Bulldogs have the profile of a team that should make some noise in the MWC this season.
Worst Team: UNLV|2-11, 8, 10, 88%, 69%| UNLV has a lot coming back from a year ago, however when you bring a lot back from a bad team it doesn't give you bump up or the positive feelings that being a solid team with a lot returning does. Still, UNLV should be better this season but a lack of talent on the roster for the time being with be the biggest impediment to any significant jump in production
Intriguing Team: San Jose State|11-2, 7, 6, 60%, 65%| San Jose State is an intriguing team this year because of the change of conference and the turnover of the coaching staff. Mike McIntyre left the Spartans for the bottom of the Pac-12 Colorado Buffaloes and will be replaced by University of San Diego's Ron Caragher. McIntyre didn't leave the cupboard completely bare as David Fales returns at QB from a team that went 11-2 last season. Caragher did well as Jim Harbaugh's replacement (won 3 league titles at USD) and we will see if he can keep the momentum going in his next step up the ladder.
Mountain:
Best Team: Boise State|11-2, 6, 7, 75%, 53%| Boise has been one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the country, heck the nation, amassing a 163-29 record since 1998 and a .913 win percentage since Chris Peterson took over the team in 2006. 11-2 last year came with a dearth of returning talent but a close game at the start of the year versus Michigan State showed that the talent level, 2 and 3 deep is getting much better in continued high level success under Peterson. The big key for this years team will be the ability of Joe Southwick to take another step forward at QB and additional weapons on the outside for him to utilize as well continued development of a young defense.
Worst Team: New Mexico|4-9, 7, 4, 72%, 44%| New Mexico made strides last season as shown by the graph from Bill C's fantastic work over at SBNation, but that still meant they were still well below but strides have been made. The reason that UNM is here is because the Mountain division is pretty solid and the next worst team is Wyoming who has made strides as well the last couple of seasons. New Mexico should continue to make strides in Bob Davies second season but they still have a ways to go, especially in the pass game and on defense.
Intriguing Team: Utah State|11-2, 8, 7, 57%, 70%| Utah State is intriguing for the same reason as San Jose State but with a higher level of talent throughout the team thanks to the great work of Gary Anderson and staff. With Anderson and co. gone this seaon the Utah State welcomes Matt Wells as the new head coach. Wells was the OC and QB coach last season and is a graduate of Utah State and should bring some continuity to a situation that is always tough to navigate. What is the dropoff for the Aggies in year 1 post Anderson and how will they replace key contributors at the offensive skill positions.
Conference Standings:
West: Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, Nevada, Hawaii & UNLV
Mountain: Boise State, Utah State, Colorado, Air Force, Wyoming & New Mexico
Championship Game: Boise State & Fresno State Winner: Boise State
West: |last years W-L, returning offensive starters, returning defensive starters, %Yards returning, %tackles returning|
Best Team: Fresno State|9-4, 7, 6, 76%, 64%| Fresno enters the year as the favorite in the West division of the Mountain West. The West is the weaker of the two divisions with more questions about contending teams than there are in the Mountain. Fresno State had a bit of a lull in it's output in the last couple of years but last years squad made a good step forward which has helped push their stock skyward. With 13 of 22 starters returning and three quarters of their offensive output from a year ago returning the Bulldogs have the profile of a team that should make some noise in the MWC this season.
Worst Team: UNLV|2-11, 8, 10, 88%, 69%| UNLV has a lot coming back from a year ago, however when you bring a lot back from a bad team it doesn't give you bump up or the positive feelings that being a solid team with a lot returning does. Still, UNLV should be better this season but a lack of talent on the roster for the time being with be the biggest impediment to any significant jump in production
Intriguing Team: San Jose State|11-2, 7, 6, 60%, 65%| San Jose State is an intriguing team this year because of the change of conference and the turnover of the coaching staff. Mike McIntyre left the Spartans for the bottom of the Pac-12 Colorado Buffaloes and will be replaced by University of San Diego's Ron Caragher. McIntyre didn't leave the cupboard completely bare as David Fales returns at QB from a team that went 11-2 last season. Caragher did well as Jim Harbaugh's replacement (won 3 league titles at USD) and we will see if he can keep the momentum going in his next step up the ladder.
Mountain:
Best Team: Boise State|11-2, 6, 7, 75%, 53%| Boise has been one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the country, heck the nation, amassing a 163-29 record since 1998 and a .913 win percentage since Chris Peterson took over the team in 2006. 11-2 last year came with a dearth of returning talent but a close game at the start of the year versus Michigan State showed that the talent level, 2 and 3 deep is getting much better in continued high level success under Peterson. The big key for this years team will be the ability of Joe Southwick to take another step forward at QB and additional weapons on the outside for him to utilize as well continued development of a young defense.
Worst Team: New Mexico|4-9, 7, 4, 72%, 44%| New Mexico made strides last season as shown by the graph from Bill C's fantastic work over at SBNation, but that still meant they were still well below but strides have been made. The reason that UNM is here is because the Mountain division is pretty solid and the next worst team is Wyoming who has made strides as well the last couple of seasons. New Mexico should continue to make strides in Bob Davies second season but they still have a ways to go, especially in the pass game and on defense.
Intriguing Team: Utah State|11-2, 8, 7, 57%, 70%| Utah State is intriguing for the same reason as San Jose State but with a higher level of talent throughout the team thanks to the great work of Gary Anderson and staff. With Anderson and co. gone this seaon the Utah State welcomes Matt Wells as the new head coach. Wells was the OC and QB coach last season and is a graduate of Utah State and should bring some continuity to a situation that is always tough to navigate. What is the dropoff for the Aggies in year 1 post Anderson and how will they replace key contributors at the offensive skill positions.
Conference Standings:
West: Fresno State, San Jose State, San Diego State, Nevada, Hawaii & UNLV
Mountain: Boise State, Utah State, Colorado, Air Force, Wyoming & New Mexico
Championship Game: Boise State & Fresno State Winner: Boise State
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
2013 CFB Season Preview: Conference Ranks
With around 40 days until the college football season and only baseball to hold us over until the end of August and well that just isn't exceptable. So I'm gonna spend the next couple weeks previewing the season starting with a conference rankings and breakdown. And then a look ahead breakdown of each conference this season. Let's begin with the independents who I didn't rank because of the difficulty of defining them.
Independents: Add two more to the ranks of the un-homed this season as New Mexico State and Idaho end up on the outside looking in with the colapse of the WAC. The military schools, Navy and Army still reside here although Navy will soon be moving to the American (not sure I like it yet). BYU and Notre Dame have national indentities and should once again be marquee Independents.
Best Team: Notre Dame still has the talent to be a top ten team this year, even with the loss of key defensive players and Everrett Gholson. The roster still has two elite defensive linemen in Louis Nix and Stephen Tuitt, a tandem who comined for 20.5 tackles for loss and a veteran offensive line that should be able to overcome most negatives attributed to Tommy Rees. They should be head and shoulders above BYU this season.
Worst Team: Idaho may be the worst team in the nation and now without a few cupcake WAC games that doesn't seem like there will be a whole lot of improvement this year. With less than average returning starters from last years team (not necesarrily horrible when bad), and add that to well below average recruiting that are associated with the Idaho program. Add in a quarterback with a 54% completion percentage and 4.1 yards per play and a running back with 2 TDs last year 2013 looks pretty bleak.
Now that we have that out of the way let's take a look at how the conferences pan out, I have then ranked in tiers and within tiers to take a look at where the conferences stand.
Tier 4: Overall weak but some bright spots this season will bring optimism
Sun Belt: The Sun Belt has been and will continue to be tthe most common point of entry into the FBS level, this year the conference welcomes Georgia State to the FBS level. Last year the conference was lead in the non-conference by Arkansas State and ULM who showed strength agains some lower tier SEC teams. Unfortunately with the turnover of conference realignment the Sun Belt is clearly the weakest conference.
Conference USA: Conference USA was raided again in the most recet waive of realignment losing Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF, all of whom but Memphis were top tier teams in the conference. To offset the attrition Conference USA raided the Sun Belt and took some of the leftovers of the WAC, joining in 2013 are Louisiana Tech, UTSA, WAC, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee and North Texas. The conference was definitely worsened by realignment but stays a step above the Sun Belt for now because of a handful of teams that should be above average.
Best Team: Arkansas State, has won the conference each of the last two seasons, with two different coaches and are looking to make it a third year in a row. New head coach Bryan Harsin comes to this team from Texas via Boise State but he had some struggles with transitioning at Texas. There is reason for some concern with the turnover at head coach but Arkansas State has brought talent in under the Malzahn and Freeze years and that is a majority of the battle when it comes to being on top in the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette, ULM and WKU will give them a run and I wouldn't be suprised to see the later two win the conference.
Worst Team: Georgia State, it is as simple as Georgia State being in year 2 of football and having very little talent stacking the roster. A move up and being barried deep in the most talented rich part of the country should allow them to pick up some scraps and make strides in the coming years but this years team is in for a rough ride.
Tier 3: Good conferences with strong upper tiers and abysmal lower tiers, aside from AAC stable
Mid-American: The most stable of the mid-majors this offseason the MAC saw no changes to the teams in it's conference, which is good because that means we can all focus on the MACtion this season. The top of league is good with NIU leading the bunch and we won't worry to much about the bottom because no matter how bad the directional Michigan schools get it's still MACtion.
The American: The American adds Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to replace Syrcause and Pitt this season and although Pitt was horrible it had some history to it's name and Syracuse would have been the third or fourth best team in the conference. Louisville is the best team hear but will have to be much more consitant next season to avoid an upset to give it a chance at the BCS Championship Game. The bottom of this conferences features Memphis and UCONN, the former being very much in the running for worst football program in the country at this moment.
Mountain West: The Mountain West would be considered up near the next tier if not for the attrition of TCU, Utah and BYU which combined with Fresno State would have given this conference a chance at 3-5 top 25 teams each year and in most of those years a top 10 team. The current iteration is still solid with two top 25 teams in Boise and Fresno and a dark horse (although popular) in San Jose State. The bottom still looks pretty lean but another year of some middle of the pack teams showing growth will continue to keep this league above the AAC.
Best Team: Louisville, is the best team in the American and with it's Sugar Bowl win in January has ascended to a potential BCS title game and an almost lock to be the BCS rep for the conference. I did give consideration to Boise who is in year 2 post Kellen Moore and should see a good step forward from their QB Starwick. Louisville doesn't have the question at QB and that's what puts them over the top in this tier.
Worst Teams: Memphis, has been bad for years and will continue to be bad, with a school that cares more about it's basketball than football it isn't hard to see this squad being in the bottom 5% of FBS even with new teams moving into the division. A move to the American should help revenue and bring some renewed enthusiasm but that won't improve the talent on the field this season.
Tier 5: Elite conferences but lack of elite top end teams and poor bowl performances leave these two a notch below the rest of the Big 5.
ACC: The ACC has had some elite teams in the last few years but they have an uncanny ability to lose games they shouldn't and then lay eggs in big games. Clemson and Florida State have been the cream of the crop in the ACC but Florida State lost to NC State last year and Clemson lost to the Wolfpack and Georgia Tech in 2011. Va Tech was abysmal last year but has routinely been the best team in the Coastal and among the best in the conference and Miami should put a positive show on this season. New additions from the former Big East in the forms of Syracuse and Pittsburgh don't add much to the football product this season and both should be middle of the pack. This conference may take a step back overall this season but Clemson has National Championship ability, Florida State has immense talent and Miami looks to be sneaky good.
Big Ten: The Big Ten has been dogged the last couple of years for the on the field product and at times for very good reason but it appears the cycle has come back around in the league as some young QBs have matured the last couple of season have matured and should improve the quality of play. Ohio State is the cream of the crop but a grouping of close calls last year still loom as a concern, Michigan State had the opposite problem and should see a normalization in luck and plethora of talent back for the 2013 season. Nebraska brings back a ton of talent as well but the Huskers have had four losses in each sesaon in the Big Ten and need to stop that trend to really make the next big step and fulfill the promise they showed before coming to the league. Wisconsin brought in a Gary Anderson with the departure of Bret Bielema to Arkansas. The league needs a better showing in bowl season and in big non-con games but should have a couple of elite teams and a potential BCS Championship game participant. The low end is still low but there are reasons for optimisms around Indiana and Minnesota, but Purdue and Iowa probably take a step back this season.
Best Team: Ohio State, is the best team out of these two conferences but Clemson definitely deserves to be heard out in this argument. Urban Meyer does great things in year two and Braxton Miller should be a lot of fun to watch. The biggest detraction is definitely some atrition on defense but Meyer has brought in two very talented classes and the cupboards are nowhere near bare.
Worst Team: Wake Forest used to be a team that you could count on to make a run every four years or som when they would pile up a group of seniors and be trouble for the traditional powers. There are no signs of this years team being one of those teams. I also think we see better years out of cellar mates Maryland and Boston College that will make scraping together wins for the Deamon Deacons even more difficult.
Tier 6: The elite conferences, only one has won 7 national championships in a row but all have multiple legitamate National Championship contenders among their ranks and have fertile recruiting grounds in their footprint.
Pac-12: The Pac-12 has had two teams in the top 6 in the final BCS standings each of the past three seasons. I don't expect that to change this season with the talent at both Stanford and Oregon remaining deep and the culture shock at Oregon being at a minimum with good continuity from last years staff. If UCLA can continue on the path the 2012 squad set they would give the conference a third team in the top 10-20 range in the standings and with offensive talent in place they definitely have a chance. What will define the 2013 Pac-12 however is how the teams in the middle perform, Oregon State surprised in 2012 but is that who they are, USC has talent but questoinable depth and questionable coaching has everyone wondering who they are; Can Washington become what we've thought every year of the Sark era and will either of the Arizona schools make the leap that seems within reach in year two of their respective head coaches? The answers to these questions will ultimately define the overall feel of the conference but the top should still be very strong.
Big XII: The Big XII may be the deepest league in country and there are fewer questions about teams 3-7 than in other leagues and their middle tier teams but the elite just don't quite matchup to the top 3 to 5 of the SEC. Texas looks like it is poised to retake the throne in the Big XII they have a bunch of returning starters and talent in the 2 deep but there remains the concerns that this team just hasn't put it all together in a few seasons. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will challenge Texas and both have talented teams but Oklahoma lost a lot from last years team and OK State has had a lot of turnover the last few years and still don't know who will start the year at QB. The Bottom of the conference is bad as well, Kansas is in the running for the worst team in the country and will field a JUCO all-star team, Kansas State lost just about everyone of significance from a special team last year and Texas Tech has a bright future but a present that is less than shining. This will be once again one of the best conferenes to watch each week but their are questions about the abilities at the top and that limits the upside this season.
SEC: Aside from the National Championships, what this conference has accomplished the last few seasons is quite incredible. They have routinely put 3-4 teams in the top ten of the final BCS rankings and two teams in BCS games. They are the only conference of the BCS era to put two teams in the championship game and have been consistantly great in producing pro talent. This season Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Ole Miss can all say to varying degrees that they have the talent to make a BCS bowl. The bottom does have some bad teams but of those Kentucky is the only one who hasn't made noise in the past five years and Missouri just joined the conference and needs to bring it's talent level up. Tennesse is still a blue blood with the means to regain where it was. The bottom line is the top of the league is deeper than any conference in the country and because that depth is 6-7 deep it doesn't matter that there is some riff raff at the bottom.
Best Team: Alabama has the most talent, the best coaching and the best recruiting in the country and are thus the best team. Do they have some holes to fill? Definitely, but with McCarron, Yeldon and Cooper on offense and C.J Mosley, Deion Belue and Vinnie Sunseri on defense this team should be and is the front runner to win the National Championship.
Worst Team: Colorado is the worst team in the BCS conferences and that includes Memphis, this is a school that doesn't invest in footbal and has a derth of talent in all respects. I love the McIntyre hire but it's gonna take atleast three years to see any real and tangible progress and probably 5-6 for them to be competitive in any meaningful way in the Pac-12.
That wraps up my Conference ranks, it took me much longer than I wanted but I hope to have more in-depth write ups on the BCS conferences before the season and maybe a MWC write-up in there as well.
Conference USA: Conference USA was raided again in the most recet waive of realignment losing Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF, all of whom but Memphis were top tier teams in the conference. To offset the attrition Conference USA raided the Sun Belt and took some of the leftovers of the WAC, joining in 2013 are Louisiana Tech, UTSA, WAC, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee and North Texas. The conference was definitely worsened by realignment but stays a step above the Sun Belt for now because of a handful of teams that should be above average.
Best Team: Arkansas State, has won the conference each of the last two seasons, with two different coaches and are looking to make it a third year in a row. New head coach Bryan Harsin comes to this team from Texas via Boise State but he had some struggles with transitioning at Texas. There is reason for some concern with the turnover at head coach but Arkansas State has brought talent in under the Malzahn and Freeze years and that is a majority of the battle when it comes to being on top in the Sun Belt. Louisiana-Lafayette, ULM and WKU will give them a run and I wouldn't be suprised to see the later two win the conference.
Worst Team: Georgia State, it is as simple as Georgia State being in year 2 of football and having very little talent stacking the roster. A move up and being barried deep in the most talented rich part of the country should allow them to pick up some scraps and make strides in the coming years but this years team is in for a rough ride.
Tier 3: Good conferences with strong upper tiers and abysmal lower tiers, aside from AAC stable
Mid-American: The most stable of the mid-majors this offseason the MAC saw no changes to the teams in it's conference, which is good because that means we can all focus on the MACtion this season. The top of league is good with NIU leading the bunch and we won't worry to much about the bottom because no matter how bad the directional Michigan schools get it's still MACtion.
The American: The American adds Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to replace Syrcause and Pitt this season and although Pitt was horrible it had some history to it's name and Syracuse would have been the third or fourth best team in the conference. Louisville is the best team hear but will have to be much more consitant next season to avoid an upset to give it a chance at the BCS Championship Game. The bottom of this conferences features Memphis and UCONN, the former being very much in the running for worst football program in the country at this moment.
Mountain West: The Mountain West would be considered up near the next tier if not for the attrition of TCU, Utah and BYU which combined with Fresno State would have given this conference a chance at 3-5 top 25 teams each year and in most of those years a top 10 team. The current iteration is still solid with two top 25 teams in Boise and Fresno and a dark horse (although popular) in San Jose State. The bottom still looks pretty lean but another year of some middle of the pack teams showing growth will continue to keep this league above the AAC.
Best Team: Louisville, is the best team in the American and with it's Sugar Bowl win in January has ascended to a potential BCS title game and an almost lock to be the BCS rep for the conference. I did give consideration to Boise who is in year 2 post Kellen Moore and should see a good step forward from their QB Starwick. Louisville doesn't have the question at QB and that's what puts them over the top in this tier.
Worst Teams: Memphis, has been bad for years and will continue to be bad, with a school that cares more about it's basketball than football it isn't hard to see this squad being in the bottom 5% of FBS even with new teams moving into the division. A move to the American should help revenue and bring some renewed enthusiasm but that won't improve the talent on the field this season.
Tier 5: Elite conferences but lack of elite top end teams and poor bowl performances leave these two a notch below the rest of the Big 5.
ACC: The ACC has had some elite teams in the last few years but they have an uncanny ability to lose games they shouldn't and then lay eggs in big games. Clemson and Florida State have been the cream of the crop in the ACC but Florida State lost to NC State last year and Clemson lost to the Wolfpack and Georgia Tech in 2011. Va Tech was abysmal last year but has routinely been the best team in the Coastal and among the best in the conference and Miami should put a positive show on this season. New additions from the former Big East in the forms of Syracuse and Pittsburgh don't add much to the football product this season and both should be middle of the pack. This conference may take a step back overall this season but Clemson has National Championship ability, Florida State has immense talent and Miami looks to be sneaky good.
Big Ten: The Big Ten has been dogged the last couple of years for the on the field product and at times for very good reason but it appears the cycle has come back around in the league as some young QBs have matured the last couple of season have matured and should improve the quality of play. Ohio State is the cream of the crop but a grouping of close calls last year still loom as a concern, Michigan State had the opposite problem and should see a normalization in luck and plethora of talent back for the 2013 season. Nebraska brings back a ton of talent as well but the Huskers have had four losses in each sesaon in the Big Ten and need to stop that trend to really make the next big step and fulfill the promise they showed before coming to the league. Wisconsin brought in a Gary Anderson with the departure of Bret Bielema to Arkansas. The league needs a better showing in bowl season and in big non-con games but should have a couple of elite teams and a potential BCS Championship game participant. The low end is still low but there are reasons for optimisms around Indiana and Minnesota, but Purdue and Iowa probably take a step back this season.
Best Team: Ohio State, is the best team out of these two conferences but Clemson definitely deserves to be heard out in this argument. Urban Meyer does great things in year two and Braxton Miller should be a lot of fun to watch. The biggest detraction is definitely some atrition on defense but Meyer has brought in two very talented classes and the cupboards are nowhere near bare.
Worst Team: Wake Forest used to be a team that you could count on to make a run every four years or som when they would pile up a group of seniors and be trouble for the traditional powers. There are no signs of this years team being one of those teams. I also think we see better years out of cellar mates Maryland and Boston College that will make scraping together wins for the Deamon Deacons even more difficult.
Tier 6: The elite conferences, only one has won 7 national championships in a row but all have multiple legitamate National Championship contenders among their ranks and have fertile recruiting grounds in their footprint.
Pac-12: The Pac-12 has had two teams in the top 6 in the final BCS standings each of the past three seasons. I don't expect that to change this season with the talent at both Stanford and Oregon remaining deep and the culture shock at Oregon being at a minimum with good continuity from last years staff. If UCLA can continue on the path the 2012 squad set they would give the conference a third team in the top 10-20 range in the standings and with offensive talent in place they definitely have a chance. What will define the 2013 Pac-12 however is how the teams in the middle perform, Oregon State surprised in 2012 but is that who they are, USC has talent but questoinable depth and questionable coaching has everyone wondering who they are; Can Washington become what we've thought every year of the Sark era and will either of the Arizona schools make the leap that seems within reach in year two of their respective head coaches? The answers to these questions will ultimately define the overall feel of the conference but the top should still be very strong.
Big XII: The Big XII may be the deepest league in country and there are fewer questions about teams 3-7 than in other leagues and their middle tier teams but the elite just don't quite matchup to the top 3 to 5 of the SEC. Texas looks like it is poised to retake the throne in the Big XII they have a bunch of returning starters and talent in the 2 deep but there remains the concerns that this team just hasn't put it all together in a few seasons. Oklahoma State and Oklahoma will challenge Texas and both have talented teams but Oklahoma lost a lot from last years team and OK State has had a lot of turnover the last few years and still don't know who will start the year at QB. The Bottom of the conference is bad as well, Kansas is in the running for the worst team in the country and will field a JUCO all-star team, Kansas State lost just about everyone of significance from a special team last year and Texas Tech has a bright future but a present that is less than shining. This will be once again one of the best conferenes to watch each week but their are questions about the abilities at the top and that limits the upside this season.
SEC: Aside from the National Championships, what this conference has accomplished the last few seasons is quite incredible. They have routinely put 3-4 teams in the top ten of the final BCS rankings and two teams in BCS games. They are the only conference of the BCS era to put two teams in the championship game and have been consistantly great in producing pro talent. This season Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Ole Miss can all say to varying degrees that they have the talent to make a BCS bowl. The bottom does have some bad teams but of those Kentucky is the only one who hasn't made noise in the past five years and Missouri just joined the conference and needs to bring it's talent level up. Tennesse is still a blue blood with the means to regain where it was. The bottom line is the top of the league is deeper than any conference in the country and because that depth is 6-7 deep it doesn't matter that there is some riff raff at the bottom.
Best Team: Alabama has the most talent, the best coaching and the best recruiting in the country and are thus the best team. Do they have some holes to fill? Definitely, but with McCarron, Yeldon and Cooper on offense and C.J Mosley, Deion Belue and Vinnie Sunseri on defense this team should be and is the front runner to win the National Championship.
Worst Team: Colorado is the worst team in the BCS conferences and that includes Memphis, this is a school that doesn't invest in footbal and has a derth of talent in all respects. I love the McIntyre hire but it's gonna take atleast three years to see any real and tangible progress and probably 5-6 for them to be competitive in any meaningful way in the Pac-12.
That wraps up my Conference ranks, it took me much longer than I wanted but I hope to have more in-depth write ups on the BCS conferences before the season and maybe a MWC write-up in there as well.
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