Rambling's 2013 Week 4 CFB Picks

Three weeks into the season and I'm sitting at 44-10 straight up and 32-20-2 against the spread. This weeks slate is a bit of a dud but there are some intriguing games that should tell us more about some of the darkhorses in the country. Enjoy week 4. 

Thursday, September 19th, 2013:

#3 Clemson at North Carolina State, 6:30 pm ESPN, The line on this game is 14 and that seems a bit low, which makes you think Vegas knows something we don't. I will say this though my set of numbers independent of my own thoughts bears out right around there as well. I think Clemson outpaces the Wolfpack and without the aid of a look ahead game on the schedule for Clemson this one should be pretty easy. Winner: Clemson ATS: Clemson -14

Friday, September 20th, 2013:

Boise State at Fresno State, 8:00 pm ESPN, The two best teams in the Mountain West meet up this week in what looks like a prequel to the conferences championship game in December. Fresno State comes in boastin an unblemished record and a win over a solid if unspectacular Rutgers team. Boise State got absolutely shelacked by Washington in week one, but the Huskies may be much better than most of us expected this season. Boise has followed that lone loss by putting the smackdown on teams they are expected too. This one has all the makings of a classic and Fresno State could use this matchup to show the country what they are about this season. Winner: Fresno State ATS: Fresno State -3

Saturday, September 21st, 2013:

Florida International at #7 Louisville, 11:00 am EPSN3, Louisville welcomes FIU this week to continue padding the win column without a challenge. Bridgewater and company look as good as advertised but we won't really see them tested much as we head into conference play. Winner: Louisville ATS: FIU +43
North Texas at #9 Georgia, 11:21 am ESPN3, Georgia welcomes North Texas to Athens where North Texas will get a nice paycheck and a loss. Not much to see here. Winner: Georgia ATS: Georgia -32.5
Tennessee at #19 Florida, 2:30 pm CBS, Tennessee travels to the Swamp for what figures to be one of the best line matchups of the year. The Vols have one of the best five man fronts in college football and Florida has recruited well up front and they are strong again this season. Winner: Florida ATS: Tennessee +17
Michigan State at #22 Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC, Expect a defensive slugfest and a really bad Spartans offense to make this look like 12 A.D. but Tommy Rees plus their defense should keep it close. Winner: Notre Dame ATS: Notre Dame -5
Purdue at #24 Wisconsin, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, Purdue has caused fits the last couple of seasons for Notre Dame, Ohio State and Wisconsin. The Boliermakers come to Camp Randall off a close loss to ND and with Wisconsin still thinking about a controversial loss in Tempe. This one will be closer than expected but the Badgers run game is too strong for the Black and Gold. Winner: Wisconsin ATS: Purdue +24
ULM at #20 Baylor, 3:00 pm FOX Sports 1, ULM visits Baylor and the dynamic for this years game is a bit different. ULM isn't coming off a victory over a FBS opponent and Baylor's offense looks like it may be better than last years team, which is scary. ULM may keep it close early but that Baylor offense will get going in the second half and prove too much for the Warhawks. Winner: Baylor ATS: ULM +29
Colorado State at #1 Alabama, 6:00 pm ESPN2, Colorado State and head coach Jim McElwain comes back to Bama to take on his old boss, Nick Saban. It will be a bloodbath but good on Saban for playing former coaches. Winner: Alabama ATS: Colorado St. +40
#23 Arizona State at #5 Stanford, 6:00 pm FOX, This may be the most interesting game of the weekend if not the best game. Stanford hasn't played anyone this season but had a scare last week against Army. Arizona State had a controversial win versus Wisconsin but had trouble slowing down the running game and that could be trouble versus a strong Stanford front. Winner: Stanford ATS: Stanford - 6
SMU at #10 Texas A&M, 6:00 pm ESPNU, SMU travels to Texas A&M and this will be a blood bath. A&M has way too much firepower and SMU has struggled for a couple years now on offense. Winner: Texas A&M ATS: SMU +28.5
Texas State at #25 Texas Tech, 6:00 pm, Texas State heads to Texas Tech this week and although I think Tech wins pretty easily I think State is good enough to surprise some people and with the spread as big as it is, well, I'll take the points. Winner: Texas Tech ATS: Texas State +27.5
Auburn at #6 LSU, 6:45 pn ESPN, Auburn travels to LSU and although they are showing signs of improvement in Malzahn's first season as the Tigers head coach they don't have the horses up front to beat an excellent LSU defense. The LSU offesnse has shown strides especially in the passing game where Mettenberger has been efficient if not spectacular. Winner: LSU ATS: Auburn +17.5
#15 Michigan at Connecticut, 7:00 pm ABC, Michigan heads to UCONN after a disappointing showing against Akron but they won and head to take on the Huskies undefeated. The Huskies lost to Towson and Maryland so yeah. Winner: Michigan ATS: Michigan -18
New Mexico State at #13 UCLA, 9:30 Pac-12 Network, Coming off a big win on the road against Nebraska the Bruins may have a bit of a letdown versus the Aggies but they won't be anywhere close to losing. Winner: UCLA ATS: New Mexico State +43

Rambling's 2013 Week 3 CFB Picks

Week three here and there are a couple games which will give us clearer hierarchies in conferences. 

Thursday, September 12th, 2013:

#24 TCU at Texas Tech, 6:30 pm ESPN, TCU heads to Lubbock this week after a win over Prairie View A&M. Texas Tech comes it at 2-0 on the year with wins over SMU and SF Austin, and Kingsbury is off to a good start. Casey Pachall is out for TCU after breaking his arm last week but Boykins should be a more than serviceable replacement. Tech should make strides each week but year one portends to be a bit rocky for the Red Raiders. Winner: TCU ATS: Texas Tech +3.5

Saturday, September 14th, 2013:

#5 Stanford at Army, 11:00 am CBS Sports Network, Army isn't very good once again but this is a cross country early game for Stanford and that alone could keep it closer than expected. Stanford took care of San Jose State in the first game of the season last week, but they won't have much trouble with Army this week. Winner: Stanford ATS: Army +29.5
#7 Louisville at Kentucky, 11:00 am ESPN, Just another in a long line of truly "difficult" games for Louisville. Kentucky should improve under the tutelage of Stoops but it won't be this year and it won't be in this game. Teddy Bridgewater is the real deal but he won't get to show it against a good defense until late in the season or the bowl game. Winner: Louisville ATS: Louisville -13
Akron at #11 Michigan, 11:00 am BTN, Akron travels to the Big House to play a Michigan team straight off a prime time in against Notre Dame. Akron is a bottom of the league MAC team and Michigan can lay claims to best in the Big Ten at the moment, but this game feels like a close one for two quarters before Michigan pulls away. Winner: Michigan ATS: Akron +38
Tulsa at #14 Oklahoma, 11:00 am ESPN2, Tulsa is expected to be one of the best teams in the revamped Conference USA but they won't have the firepower to bust the Oklahoma defense. Oklahoma's offense is still a work in progress but Blake Bell gets his first start and we'll see if his athleticism brings a new dynamic to the offense. Winner: Oklahoma ATS: Oklahoma -24
#16 UCLA at #23 Nebraska, 11:00 am ABC, UCLA travels east for an 11:00 game which is a concern for the Bruins, cross country games in general are hard enough but playing a game at 9:00 am to your body is always a tricky situation. This game should mirror last years game in style of play, however and that is a good thing for fans because it should mean 60 minutes of offenses going back and forth trading blows. The Huskers defense showed some life last week against Southern Miss, while UCLA took it to Nevada but this will be the best and truest test for either team in this young season. Winner: Nebraska ATS: Nebraska -4
#1 Alabama at #6 Texas A&M, 2:30 pm CBS, The game of the week, and one of the most anticipated games of the year kicks off at 2:30 in College Station this Saturday. A rematch of the Aggies thrilling upset last season that ruined a perfect season for the Tide. There are two major differences with this season's iteration of the game, first off the Alabama offensive line is not quite as good as least years world beaters and showed significant growing pains week 1 against Virginia Tech. Secondly, the A&M defense is young and got knocked around by Rice. This game will come down to whichever unit can better take advantage of the others weakness, and I believe more in the talent on Bama's line than on the Aggie's defense. Winner: Alabama ATS: Texas A&M +8
Tennessee at #2 Oregon, 2:30 pm ABC, Tennessee travels to Oregon to take on a Ducks' team that may have taken a half step back on offense but is still supremely dangerous. Tennessee on the other hand does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with this team. Winner: Oregon ATS: Oregon -27.5
Nevada at #10 Florida State, 2:30 pm ESPN, Nevada comes to Tallahassee for a paycheck and a loss but they should be improved this season but this won't be the game to showcase that. The main focus on the FSU side will be Jameis Winston's encore performance. Winner: Florida State ATS: Florida State -33
#19 Washington at Illinois, 5:00 pm BTN, Washington heads to Chicago this week to take on the surprisingly 2-0 Fighting Illini of Illinois. Washington impressed week one with a throttling of Boise State and gave the appearance to taken that much anticipated step up in the Steve Sarkisian era. Illinois has been better behind improved play of Scheelhaas and a new offense. I think Washington is too much for Illinois but the future looks better for both than a few weeks ago. Winner: Washnington ATS: Washington -10
#4 Ohio State at California, 6:00 pm FOX, Ohio State heads west to take on a California team that won't resemble the team they beat last year in the Horshoe. This years Cal team under Sonny Dykes runs the Air Raid and Groff has had a fine start to his debut season at QB. Ohio State is by far the more talented team in the game, but much like last seasons game this one will be closer than expected. Winner: Ohio State ATS: Cal +16
Kent State at #8 LSU, 6:00 pm ESPNU, Should be another cake walk for LSU as they get Kent State in town, in fact the most interesting thing in this game is to see Dri Archer against elite talent on the other end. Winner: LSU ATS: LSU -37
Vanderbilt at #13 South Carolina, 6:00 pm ESPN, South Carolina is coming off a tough loss to Georgia on the road, but much like Georgia last week the Gamecocks come back home to face a conference foe. Vanderbilt had a rough week 1 again this season with a close loss to a conference foe, this week South Carolina gives them another tough test. Winner: South Carolina ATS: South Carolina -13.5
#21 Notre Dame at Purdue, 7:00 pm ABC, I think Notre Dame is gonna whoop up on Purdue but I've thought that the last two seasons and Purdue has had chances to beat Notre Dame late in both of those games. This season's Purdue team however doesn't have an offense and ND is very strong on D so, third times a charm I guess. Winner: Notre Dame ATS: Notre Dame -20.5
#25 Ole Miss at Texas, 7:00 pm LHN, Ole Miss travels to Texas to face a team that last year put up 66 points on them, and last week gave up mondo yards to BYU on the ground. Ole Miss is undoubtedly better this season than last and Texas has shown weakness especially defending the option. With a new defensive coordinator in the much maligned Greg Robinson, I don't think anyone knows what to expect out of Texas. Winner: Ole Miss ATS: Ole Miss +2.5
Western Michigan at #17 Northwestern, 8:00 pm BTN, Western Michigan is really bad again this season and Northwestern looks poised for it's best in a great while and this one shouldn't change our opinion of either. Northwestern's two headed monster should be able to put up points in bunches and that's a good sign. Winner: Northwestern ATS: Northwestern -31
#20 Wisconsin at Arizona State, 9:00 pm ESPN, In one of the best under card games of Bama-A&M week Wisconsin heads west to take on the Sun Devils in a late night brawl. This one should be a contrast in styles between the spread 'em out Sun Devils and the Power-I based Badgers. The key in this one will be how Wisconsin handles the heat and tempo of the ASU offense and how disruptive Will Sutton is to Melvan Gordon and James White when Wisconsin is on O. Winner: Wisconsin ATS: Wisconsin +5.5
Oregon State at Utah, 9:00 pm FOX Sports 1, I added this match-up into this weeks picks because it intrigues me, because of it's implication for the Pac-12. The results of this game will give us a much better idea of what the second tier of the Pac-12 will look like. Oregon State was in that position last season but early stumbles have brought this season's Beavers under question but Utah has started strong and poses a serious threat for the first time in since joining the Pac-12. Winner: Utah ATS: Utah -3

Rambling's 2013 Week 2 CFB Picks Review

I going to eschew writing a review this week to focus on next and figure out a new way to write up my weekly review. I am not a big fan of the review my picks format and am thinking about doing a more freelance wander around the week. Will be back Wednesday night to write up week 3.

Rambling's Week 2 2013 CFB Picks

Here we are in week 2 of the season, week saw me go 20-2 straight up and 15-7 against the spread. Week 2 is a bit of a light week as there are a lot of cupcakes on the schedule but there are still a lot of quality games. 

Saturday, September 7th, 2013:

#12 Florida at Miami (FL), 11:00 am ESPN, Florida heads to the Orange Bowl to take on Miami who is coming off whooping Sun Belt Florida schools. Florida took care of Toledo and gets a few suspended pieces back for this match-up. Miami should give the Gators some problems but a stout front seven for Florida will be the difference in this game and Florida scores just enough to win on the road. Winner: Florida ATS: Miami (FL) +3
#13 Oklahoma State at UTSA, 11:00 am FOX Sports 1, This game is going to be closer than people think because UTSA has an underrated squad in it's second year in FBS. Oklahoma State still wins and more than likely by two to three touchdowns but I'll take the points. Winner: Oklahoma State ATS: UTSA +26.5
#2 Oregon at Virginia, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, Virginia showed off this season's improvements against BYU in week one but they travel east to face a much bigger challenge this week with Oregon coming to town. Oregon rolled Nicholls State and I think Mark Helfrich keeps the good honeymoon feelings flowing. Oregon wins big. Winner: Oregon ATS: Oregon -22
San Diego State at #3 Ohio State, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, San Diego State lost to an FCS team and not one of the top tier ones and Ohio State has something left to prove after Buffalo. Ohio State rolls in this one. Winner: Ohio State ATS: Ohio State -27.5
Buffalo at #23 Baylor, 2:30 pm ESPNU, Speaking of Buffalo they head to Baylor to face a whole different type of offensive attack. Baylor presents a new challenge to the Buffalo secondary and will stretch a lest talented team. Kahlil Mack should be a force once again in the middle for the Bulls none-the-less and this should be another fun game involving Buffalo. Winner: Baylor ATS: Buffalo +27.5
#6 South Carolina at #11 Georgia, 3:30 pm ESPN, Georgia heads home to welcome South Carolina after a slugfest with Clemson. Georgia's offense sputtered late in the game in that close loss and the offensive line got pushed around by the Clemson front four. South Carolina routed North Carolina and there two lines should be able to control this game especially on offense against a young Georgia defense that will need a few weeks seasoning. Winner: South Carolina ATS: South Carolina +3.5
Syracuse at #19 Northwestern, 5:00 pm BTN, Syracuse put up a very good fight last week against Penn State and there is no reason to think they shouldn't as well this week against Northwestern. Northwestern look very good against California last week but suffered a few key injuries but this week may not be the week where those are felt the most. Northwestern should be able to throw on Syracuse as Penn State had some success there last week and I think they take care of business. Winner: Northwestern ATS: Northwestern -10.5
Southern Miss at #22 Nebraska, 5:00 pm BTN, Nebraska wins but you'll feel queasy for three and a half quarters and there will be lots of points. Winner: Nebraska ATS: Southern Miss +28.5
UAB at #9 LSU, 6:00 pm ESPNU, I expect nothing less than LSU to role in this game, especially if the new offense isn't an abarition. Winner: LSU ATS: LSU -34.5
#15 Texas at BYU, 6:00 pm ESPN2, This game is gonna be real ugly for about a half as the Longhorn offense and Cougars defense trade blows, but then sometime in the third quarter there will be a 8 minute burst from Texas and that's all there needs to be. Winner: Texas ATS: Texas -6.5
West Virginia at #16 Oklahoma, 6:00 pm FOX, West Virginia looks like a team that is going to keep regressing in a new conference. Last week the Mountaineers almost laid an egg against an FCS opponent and this week they head to Norman. Oklahoma looked better than many expected when it laid the wood against last years darling ULM and seems to be transitioning nicely from the Landry Jones era. Winner: Oklahoma ATS: Oklahoma -20
#14 Notre Dame at #17 Michigan, 7:00 pm ESPN, Neither one of these teams match-ups told us anything about the upcoming seasons, as each played cupcakes. Michigan comes into this game with continued questions about the strength of their defense and whether they have enough new weapons on offense. Notre Dame comes into the sesaon with the Tommy Rees questions that stem from his last starting stint two years ago. Mr. Rees aquitted himself nicely last year in spot opportunities in tight games. This should be a good game that illuminates a lot about both teams. Winner: Michigan ATS: Michigan -4 (Maybe)
Washington State at #25 USC, 9:30 pm FOX Sports 1, This game strikes me much like the Hawaii game, USC won't put it away in the fourth quarter but the game will never be in doubt against an improving Wazzou team that played well last week versus Auburn. Winner: USC ATS: Washington State +15.5
San Jose State at #5 Stanford, 10:00 pm Pac-12 Network, A coaching change for San Jose State doesn't seem to have dampened the good feelings around the program but a trip to Stanford will put them on hold for one week. This is Stanford's season opener and we'll get to see what improvements Sophomore Kevein Hogan will bring to the table and what is left in the stable at TE. Stanford rolls here but don't overlook SJSU going forward. Winner: Stanford ATS: Stanford -26

There you go enjoy week 2 I'll be back here Monday or Tuesday with the weekly recap.

Rambling's 2013 Week 1 CFB Picks Review

Thursday, August 29th, 2013:

North Carolina at #6 South Carolina, 5:00 pm ESPN,  South Carolina came out of the gae fast with 17 points in the first quarter and the key unit on the field the entire game was the Gamecocks offensive line. They overpowered a beleagured North Carolina d-line in a sweltering heat. on the other side of the ball Clowney wasn't the expected force and much was made of him being tired, it was a muggy hot night, I'll reserve judgement on Clowney til' mid season. For North Carolina's part they put a good effort in and were pretty much what we expected a good team but not going to hold up against a top tier opponent. Winner: South Carolina 27-10 ATS: South Carolina -11

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt, 8:15 pm ESPN, This was an exciting game from start to finish and pitted two pretty evenly matched football teams. Vanderbilt took the early lead and look to have a pretty good grip on play but Hugh Freeze and company battled all game and put themselves in position to win. With two touchdowns in the last two minutes this game didn't disappoint, this game didn't give us too many answers on either team and they remain very intriguing squads this season. Winner: Vanderbilt Ole Miss 39-35 ATS: Vanderbilt +3.5

#24 USC at Hawaii, 10:00 pm CBS Sports Net, Nothing too important happened here, USC won without a lot of worry and Hawaii gave a good fight but we won't know much about either team until conference play starts up. Winner: USC 30-13 ATS: Hawaii +23

Saturday, August 31st, 2013:

Buffalo at #2 Ohio State, 11:00 am ESPN2, This one ended up closer than many expected it but the lone touchdown was a great play by standout Buffalo linebacker Kahlil Mack. You'll see people opine over a "close" contest with Buffalo but I thought they handled it pretty well. Winner: Ohio State 30-10 ATS: Ohio State -36

UMASS at #23 Wisconsin, 11:00 am BTN, Not much to say about this blowout but both Gordon and White looked explosive. Winner: Wisconsin 45-0 ATS: UMASS +44.5

Toledo at #10 Florida, 11:21 am ESPN3, This one was closer than the line expected but right about what I was expecting, Florida to put up some points on sheer difference of talent but pulling away late. Winner: Florida 24-6 ATS: Toledo +24

Rice at #7 Texas A&M, 12:00 pm ESPN,  Too much made of everything that Manziel did and unfortunately it's only week one. The defense need to get better and Rice will put up points this year. Winner: Texas A&M 52-31 ATS: Texas A&M -27

Mississippi State vs #13 Oklahoma State, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, As SBNation's Bill Connelly has pointed out Oklahoma State's defense is much better on a per play basis than many think and a powerhouse performance on that side of the ball opened a lot of eyes on this Cowboys team. Winner: Oklahoma State 21-3 ATS: Oklahoma State -12.5

Temple at #14 Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC, Nothing to see here, next week will tell us more. Winner: Notre Dame 28-6 ATS: Notre Dame -29.5

Central Michigan at #17 Michigan, 2:30 pm BTN, See, Notre Dame review above. Winner: Michigan 59-9 ATS: Michgan -31.5

Northern Illinois at Iowa, 2:30 pm BTN, Oh Iowa, you had the game all but wrapped up to at least milk it to overtime but a costly turnover gave NIU the game winning field goal try. The good news out of Iowa City is that there was life out of the offense. For Northern Illinois they showed good resilliance fighting back but the offense needs to grease the wheels or MACtion could be tough. Winner: Northern Illinois 30-27 ATS: Northern Illinois +3

#1 Alabama vs Virginia Tech, 4:30 pm ESPN, Positives: Va Tech D is going to cause a lot of trouble, Alabama's too. Negatives: That revamped O-line needs to improve quickly and Thomas just looks awful. Winner: Alabama 35-10 ATS: Alabama -20

ULM at #16 Oklahoma, 6:00 pm, Good on Oklahoma removing any doubt on the outcome in this one quickly and after Q1 there was no doubt. Winner: Oklahoma 45-0 ATS: Oklahoma -23

#5 Georgia at #8 Clemson, 7:00 pm ABC, The hype is warranted on Clemson and that defense was suprisingly stout up front but to me the real story is Georgia's defense. That unit was the main question mark on a good Bulldogs team and aside from a couple touchdowns early they performed very well for the rest of the game. No doubt that, some young players need to improve but the initial signs are very good. Winner: Clemson 35-0 ATS: Clemson +2 

New Mexico State at #15 Texas, 7:00 pm LHN, Yup. This upcoming week is going to be an ugly game, much like the first half of this one. Winner: Texas 56-7 ATS: Texas -42

Wyoming at #18 Nebraska, 7:00 pm BTN, I predicted a scare and some seperation adn that looked to be the formula but a couple of quick late scores tightened this one up, just like that and now Nebraska is the team for whom the bell tolls, in many people's eyes. Winner: Nebraska 37-34 ATS: Wyoming +29

#12 LSU vs #20 TCU, 8:00 pm ESPN, TCU is gonna be force in the Big XII, but LSU was the story. Their offense look very good and their defense once again reloaded and considering some of the weaknesses we've seen out of the other SEC West teams the Tigers are gonna cause problems. I mean Mettenberger lead an offense to 37 points. Winner: LSU 37-27 ATS: LSU -4

#19 Boise State at Washington, 9:00 pm FOX Sports 1, Woah Washington, bravo to you. With a renovated stadium reopening the Huskies shelacked the Broncos in uncharacteristic fashion and put themselves in the conversation as trouble for Stanford and Oregon. On the Boise State front I'm not too worried Peterson's teams have been among the most consistant of the last decade. Winner: Boise State Washington 38-6 ATS: Boise State +4

Nevada at #21 UCLA, 9:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Good on UCLA to put this game away and make the final impressive, continued improvement from Hundley bodes well for a season of success I'm still skeptical of. Winner: UCLA 58-20 ATS: UCLA -19

#22 Northwestern at California, 9:30 pm ESPN2, Both side took pretty harmful injuries on both sides could affect the rest of the season, but Northwestern aquitted itself well on the road against a team that they had no opportunity to scout scheme and use of players.  Winner: Northwestern 44-30 ATS: Cal +6.5

Sunday, September 1st, 2013:

Ohio at #9 Louisville, 2:30 pm ESPN, Get use to this, this is all that Louisville will do all season until a matchup with Cincinnati. Winner: Louisville 49-7 ATS: Louisville -20.5

Monday, September 2nd, 2013:

#11 Florida State at Pittsburgh, 7:00 pm ESPN, Freshamn QB Jameis Winston looked great in the opener againt Pittsburgh, going 25-27 356 and 4 TD with only 2 sacks. Now he is a freshman so we should hold off on naming him king of the universe but it was a great start for a highly touted recruit. Winner: Florida State 41-13 ATS: Florida State -10