2014 Conference USA Preview

Alright, I'm gonna try to follow through with what I failed to do last year, which is preview all ten conferences before the start of the college football season. Following my ranking of the conferences I will go from worst to first previewing each conference team by team. Each preview will follow pretty much the same format: Additions/Subtractions (Realignment), Past Champs (Last 3), Coaching Changes, Team Write-ups from best to worst that will include 2013 records, returning starters on offense and defense (Thanks Phil Steele), % of Yards and Tackles returning (Thanks Bill Connelly), Current Head Coach. All that is too say there is gonna be a lot of information, personal conjecture, blatant guessing and hopefully we all come out of it with a better understanding of the 2014 college football season. (For more process information look at the Explanation of Process page on the right side)

Subtractions/Additions

Conference USA has seen major change over the last couple of seasons, with realignment at the upper levels ending with the break up of the old Big East, CUSA was once again raided for teams to fill up the now named American athletic conference. CUSA lost Memphis, Houston UCF and SMU to the AAC last season and this year lost East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa. ECU and Tulsa had been two of the more consistent teams in the conference with Tulsa falling off last season and Tulane being bad for most of the past decade. Too me ECU is the big loss this season, but they are replaceable. Coming in to fill the void left by the trio of departures are, WKU from the Sun Belt and Old Dominion which is making the transition from FCS to FBS. WKU has been good if not exceptional team in the Sun Belt, but has reached its zenith under the tutelage of Willie Taggert who left two years ago for USF and then a one year stint from vagabond Bobby Petrino, they are a solid if not spectacular addition to the conference roll call. Old Dominion finished above .500 in each of the four seasons it competed at the FCS including two trips to the playoffs, they aren't as well known or successful as Georgia Southern or Appalachian State but they do show an ability to move up in rank and succeed and that is a good trait in a new team.

Recent History

No conference champ has repeated in the last three seasons, 2011 Southern miss was there last competent team they have had, 2012 Tulsa dropped off after there championship season and 2013 Rice is yet to be determined but I do have hope that they will buck the recent trend in drop offs for former champions.

Coaching Changes

There was relative stability in the Conference USA coaching ranks this off-season, with only 2 coaching changes it stands to reason that some of the under performing teams have staffs that need to make tangible improvements. UAB is one of those under performing teams but are saved the uncertainty of the hot seat because last seasons head coach joined the staff of the other departing head coach from the conference, Bobby Petrino. Garrick was under a good amount of pressure to produce results as his Blazers teams had stagnated over the last couple of seasons, he seized the opportunity to coach in the ACC even if that meant a demotion (or what amounts more to a lateral move). Garrick is replaced at UAB by Bill Clark, the head coach formally at Jacksonville State where he took the Gamecocks to there best record since 1992 and a quarterfinal appearance in the FCS playoffs. Petrino for his part in the Carousel is on his third job in as many seasons, two years ago he was at Arkansas where a long standing affair was discovered, along with other transgressions, after a motorcycle accidents with his mistress. He jumped at the chance to take the WKU which was seen as a one year stop gap before a BCS gig opened up and Louisville's did with the departure of Charlie Strong to Texas. With the departure of Petrino WKU looked inside the program for stability and their next coach. Jeff Brohm, brother of Brian Brohm former Louisville QB, takes over a program that is at the highest point in the history of the program. Brohm has been an assistant head coach multiple times and OC at a few stops but this is his first test running the whole show.

Team Write-ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % yards), Returning Def (Starters, % tackles) *coach records are career numbers

Marshall Thundering Herd (East, 10-4, 13, 6 (Y), 60.4%, 7, 85.9%), The Thundering Heard were the conference runner up last season and the champions of the East division. With 13 returning starters The Herd and a returning quarterback they position themselves well in the East to make another run at the championship game. Marshall needs to replace their top running back and two of their top three WR but a loaded defense brings back most of the top playmakers from a good squad last season. They should be the class of the conference. Current Head Coach: Doc Holliday (27-24) Hired: 2010
Rice Owls (West, 10-4, 12, 6 (N), 48.8%, 6, 63.3%) Rice is the defending champion of the conference and return a bit over half the roster but the offense is depleted losing over half the yards gained last year including the starting QB. The defense returns more playmakers than the offense but still need to replace a good portion of the starting lineup. Rice brings back enough to be the favorite in the division but they need to make sure the assimilation of new starters is a quick one because there are some veteran laden teams in the west that will be looking for any weakness to take them down. Current Head Coach: David Bailiff (61-63) Hired: 2007
UTSA Roadrunners (West, 7-5, 19, 9 (N), 79.6%, 10, 82%) UTSA comes into this season losing only 3 starters from last years team, which was one of the best Larry Coker has had since he took over at UTSA. Even without a returning quarterback this roadrunners team is deep just about everywhere and has returning talent to not force any of the younger two deep into a situation that might be disastrous. Rice is still the best team in the division but UTSA is gonna be a stingy out this season and a real contender for the CUSA crown. Current Head Coach: Lary Coker (79-30) Hired: 2009
WKU Hilltoppers (East, 8-4, 11, 8 (Y), 54.9%, 3, 24%) Third head coach in three years, this time comes from inside the program already. Jeff Brohm has worked on two of Bobby Petrino's staffs and he has some talent to work with on the offensive side of the ball. But the defense is a mess returning a quarter of the tackles from last year and only 3 starters. Brohm seems like a good hire and WKU should be middle of the road the conference but this won't be an elite year for the Hilltoppers. Current Head Coach: Jeff Brohm (0-0) Hired: 2014
North Texas Mean Green (West, 9-4, 9, 5 (N), 37.7%, 4, 55.2%) 2013 Mean Green was one of the most successful iterations of recent memory. But with a scant 9 players returning and most of the offensive difference makers leaving this could be a struggle for McCarney and company. With a depleted conference there should still be enough foundation to be a mid tier team. Current Head Coach: Dan McCarney (74-104) Hired: 2011
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (East, 8-5, 11, 4 (N), 69.9%, 7, 72.4%) Middle Tennessee has been one of the more consistent mid majors over the last 5 seasons and with a fair bit of talent returning in 2014 they should continue that solid if not spectacular run that they have had under Rick Sotckill. The biggest red flag is the lack of a returning QB which at a group of 5 school can spell disaster even with returning peripheral talent. Current Head Coach: Rick Stocktill (51-49) Hired: 2006
Old Dominion Monarchs (East, 8-4, 17, 8 (Y), 81%, 9, 81.8%) Old Dominion finds itself in a new conference and a new level of competition. And I've put them seventh in a thirteen team conference. This may seem high but they played well at the FCS level and I have no confidence in the bottom of the conference. Current Head Coach: Bobby Wilder (46-14) Hired: 2009
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (West, 4-8, 13, 6 (Y), 68.9%, 7, 72.1%) Skip Holtz was hired after being booted from USF to replace a very impressive run Sonny Dykes. Holtz's 2014 team brings back an average amount from last seasons squad that underperformed. Year two at La Tech will bring us closer to finding out if Holtz is more like his ECU days or his USF days. Current Head Coach: Skip Holtz (92-79) Hired: 2013
UAB Blazers (East, 2-10, 14, 6 (N), 66.2%, 8, 74.2%) Bill Clark's sole year at Jacksonville State was impressive but he takes over a stagnant UAB team that brings back a plenty on defense but needs to adapt to a coaching change. Clark will needs to recruit well in a talent rich area of the country and to dig up the gems if he wants to enforce any kind of significant change in Birmingham. Current Head Coach: Bill Clark (11-4) Hired: 2014
FAU Owls (East, 6-6, 10, 5 (Y), 58.8%, 5, 60.8%) FAU has been a mess for, well, a while and but last year showed a significant increase in output. This season team brings some playmakers back but also has to replace over half of each side of the ball. A returning QB always helps a team in this situation but this team needs to build off of it's success last season. Current Head Coach: Charlie Patridge (0-0) Hired 2014
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (West, 1-11, 15, 8 (Y), 55%, 7, 78.1%) Of the bottom three teams in my rankings for this conference this is the team I'm most worried about coming back to bite me in the ass. Three years ago this team lost a couple of games and then fell apart when the coaching staff almost completely turned over. But that doesn't change the fact that there has to be some talent left on this team and with over half the offense back and two thirds of tackles from last year coming back this team has the chance to surprise some people. Current Head Coach: Todd Monken (1-11) Hired: 2013
UTEP Miners (West, 2-10, 16, 9 (Y), 72.6%, 7, 67.3%) The middle of the trio of teams that were really bad last season but return a lot and they sit about as highly in my opinion as Southern Miss and FIU, lots of talent coming back still gonna be bad. Kugler is in for the long haul and a surprisingly good season in year two could give him the rope to make significant and long lasting change in El Paso. Current Head Coach: Sean Kugler (2-10) Hired: 2013
FIU Panthers (East, 1-11, 18, 11 (Y), 58.8%, 7, 64.6%) FIU brings back a bunch of starters from a squad that wen 1-11 and that could mean one of two things. It could mean that this team will take another step forward with a more experienced roster or it means that FIU brings back a bunch of players that just aren't that talented. I tend to lean toward the latter. Oh and one last aside, firing Mario Cristobal was a gigantic waste of a supremely talented coach and asset. Current Head Coach: Ron Turner (43-72) Hired: 2013

2014 Predicted Standings

East: 1) Marshall 2) WKU 3) Middle Tennessee 4) UAB 5) Old Dominion 6) FAU 7) FIU

West: 1) Rice 2) UTSA 3) North Texas 4) Louisiana Tech 5) Southern Miss 6) UTEP

Conference Championship: Rice at Marshall

That concludes the first conferene rundown for the season, I pale in comparison to Bill Connelly at SBNatoin but I think it's fun and it helps me think critically about certain teams. Conference USA doesn't excite me much but Marshall and Rice should be entertaining to say the least and have a chance at the Group of Five New Years Day bid. I hope you enjoyed this, the next conference up will be the Sun Belt and I hope to have it out before the end of the month.

1st 2014 NFL Mock Draft

My first mock this year, with the draft being later I wanted to wait to do this first one. Hope you like it.

1) Houston Texans - Jadaveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina: Defense wasn't the issue last year I know that but I don't think that Houston has any quarterback with an overly high grade and if you don't love the QB don't force it with this pick. With Clowney there is a lot to like, he has athleticism to spare and the burst to outpace just about everyone out of the gate. Needs to work on his power move, but is built like a brick shithouse. Motor has been questioned, but I think it is overblown. Lastly, This & This...
2) St. Louis Rams (Via Washington) - Jake Matthews, OT, Auburn: Keeping Sam Bradford upright is the biggest task for 2014 St. Louis, a talented team has been put around him but he's been injury prone. They did just resign Rodger Saffold but I don't think there should be a great amount of faith put into his ability to grow into a top flight player on the left side. Matthews may not have the upside of Robinson, but he is a more polished product and gives the front office a better option to make an impact this season. 
3) Jacksonville Jaguars - Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville: Jacksonville didn't have success in transforming Blaine Gabbert into even an average NFL quarterback, they traded Gabbert to San Francisco for a 6th rounder and possibly a conditional pick. In Bridgewater they get the most NLF ready QB in the draft and a pretty good player, who should improve the team right away. This is a long rebuild but I have faith in the new regime.
4) Cleveland Browns - Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson: If Cleveland believes any QB in the draft is a franchise QB then they should draft that player. I don't believe they think there is and that is why I have Watkins here. The best offensive playmaker in the draft Watkins, does everything well and is a pretty good route runner already & hands that bring in just about everything. Watkins and Gordon is a scary combo but they need someone to throw them the ball, Hoyer might be that guy and I think he's worth the shot and I think Cleveland may think that too.
5) Oakland Raiders - Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: With Veldheer leaving in free agency, Oakland needs a bell cow to anchor the end of the line. Robinson has room to grow but is a first rate mauler and has the athleticism to grow into an elite pass blocker as well. Oakland could very well go QB here but without the foundation to support that player what does the future hold other than a David Carr like existance.
6) Atlanta Falcons - Kahlil Mack, OLB, Buffalo: Atlanta needs front 7 help on D and OLine help and Mack gives them that elite player at the OLB position, a position they have tried numerous times to fill. Mack is explosive and refined technically and should be a welcome addition to a defense with trouble on the front end of the defense.
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M: Mike Williams was traded for a sixth round pick to the Buffalo Bills and there isn't much left on the roster at the WR position. Evans would provided McCown (really Tampa?) or Glennon with a secondary weapon alongside Vincent Jackson that would come down with just about every ball. Evans brings the whole package and the only downside to his game may be lack of top end speed.
8) Minnesota Vikings - Blake Bortles, QB, UCF: Since drafting Christian Ponder in the first round two years ago the Vikings have made the playoffs on the back of AP and had troubles scoring points with any regularity. Ponder hasn't grown under the old regime and with a new cast running the show a fresh start at the most important position on the field appears to be in the cards. Bortles for his part looks like you'd want your QB to look, standing 6' 5" 252 lbs and a good amount of athleticism. The army may be just slightly above average but the bigger problem is the inconsistency and lack of refined footwork (also affects velocity). If the Vikings think they can fix these mistakes and if they can give him time to sit, maybe behind Cassel, then they pull the trigger like I have them doing.
9) Buffalo Bills - Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama: The lastest product of the Crimson Tide looks like a difference maker in the back 4. During free agency the Bills lost Jarius Byrd and have a huge hole at safety and Ha Ha should be able to step in there and make a contribution. With an invigoration of the front 7 to a respectable group an infustion of talent on the back end is needed.
10) Detroit Lions - Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State: The Lions still need a WR to compliment Johnson and Tate but with such a deep crop of wideouts and Watkins/Evans gone they need to look elsewhere. Bring in Justin Gilbert the top rated CB in the draft and a stud from Oklahoma State. An upgrade on the outside is an imperative with a very good front four and an improved linebacking corps I think this is a no-brainer for Detroit. 
11) Tennessee Titans - Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA: Barr slips from his preseason expectations as a top 5-10 pick. The Titans need help outside and should be enthused by a player who possesses great burst off the edge. Barr needs some polishing and isn't as much of a finished prospect as a Mack is but he was a top 10 player to start the year for a reason and that's because he is one hell of an athlete.
12) New York Giants - Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan: The Giants have no record of picking LBs or OLs with their first round picks and I may move off this pick as we continue to get closer to the draft but for now this is it. Lewan would move into the lineup right away and add youth along with Justin Pugh last years #1 pick. Pugh at RT and Lewan at LT would be bookends of a line trending up instead of to the grave.
13) St. Louis Rams - Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: The second best safety in the draft and the last of the top tier Pryor was a strong player and should slot in at FS for the Rams. Filling another spot behind a very good defensive line should continue to improve this unit under Jeff Fischer. The additions of Matthews and Pryor should shore up big holes on this Rams roster.
14) Chicago Bears - Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh: Aaron Donald is the biggest riser of the year, unheralded coming into the year Donald splashed onto the scene at pit with 59 Tackles, 28.5 Tkls for Loss and 11 sacks while picking up most of the honors for defensive linemen this offseason. An explosive player from DT, his run technique needs to be refined and honed but when getting after the QB there weren't many that slowed him down at the college level. He's short at 6-1 but against very good competition at the Senior Bowl he kept wonderful pad level discipline and routinely won the leverage battle. Donald should be a force in the middle for the Bears for many years.
15) Pittsburgh Steelers - Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan State: Pittsburgh has many holes to fill as an aging roster and some poor resource management are starting to show cracks in the steel city. Dennard has his detractors but a feisty CB who won't shy from contact and fights a reciever down the field seems to fit the identity of this defense. Dennard needs to work on footwork in and out of his turns but working with a great coaching staff should help him in that regard.
16) Dallas Cowboys - Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State: Last time we saw Jernigan was on winded on the sidelines in the fourth quarter of the national title game against Auburn. I can cut him slack on this because Auburn plays at a ridiculous pace and wore down many a front seven player this season when it had an advantage and wants to wear you down. Jernigan in the middle of this line with the loss of Ware a presence in the middle will be a welcome addition.
17) Baltimore Ravens - Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame: Ngata is getting old and Nix is the best player available in my mind and Nix would fit great in the Ravens 3-4 scheme. Nix was a starter the last couple of years for the Fighting Irish and helped to anchor a defense that was the best unit of a team that went to the national championship two years ago. Nix need some work on technique but you don't find guys his size that move the way he does and that's valuable on its own.
18) New York Jets - Marquise Lee, WR, USC: Jets acquired Decker this off-season but still lack a stable of weapons to help Geno Smith take a step forward in his sophomore campaign. Lee had a rough year in 2013 with an increased drop rate but much of his lack of production can be attributed to the dearth of good QB play at USC. The Jets could look for O-Line help or help in the back end at this position as well.
19) Miami Dolphins - Zack Martin, OT/OG, Notre Dame: The Dolphins need help along the offensive line in a big way, Jonathan Martin was suppose to fill one of the tackle spots but he's now in San Fran post Incognito so the Dolphins are left with a sieve like line. Martin can play Guard or Tackle but definitely profiles higher inside. The Dolphins need help plain and simple and Martin makes them better up front.
20) Arizona Cardinals - Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M: Arizona sits just outside the playoffs but have an aging Carson Palmer at QB and no real good contingency plan outside of that. Manziel falling is to the Cardinals gain as they get the second best QB in the draft and have the roster to allow him to sit behind the vet Palmer and grow a bit in the professional scene. Manziel for his part is a dynamic talent that showed the ability to improve in his post Heisman season. Character concerns should only go so far as a deterrent to drafting him.
21) Green Bay Packers - C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama: If Mosley falls this far in May then Thompson and Co. will run this pick to the podium. Mosley would pair nicely with Hawk on the inside and provide a player that plays sideline to sideline with athleticism and the ability to match up with TEs. Mosley was a consistently good player for Saban and staff in Tuscaloosa and should contribute from day one in the NFL.
22) Philadelphia Eagles - Odell Beckham Jr, WR, LSU: With the release of DeSean Jackson a couple weeks back the Eagles need at WR went from we need one to fill out the depth chart to we need one to start yesterday. Beckham Jr brings those kind of abilities with his game. Not on the same level of Watkins and Evans but Beckham is a talent and should be able to anchor a receiving corps for the next 10 years.
23) Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Ebron, TE, UNC: The best talent at the TE position in this draft Ebron won't fulfill any of the requirements for blocking from the TE position. Ebron can stretch the field on the stream and has the hands and route running ability to be a threat underneath. Should add an explosive complement to Bowe on the outside.
24) Cincinnati Bengals - Dee Ford, DE, Auburn: Ford was the fastest riser coming out of Senior Bowl week but injury concerns have arose since then. None of that takes away from the fact that he is a quick twitch athlete off the edge and showed the strength to beat some of the best players in this years draft. Ford would give the Bengals a speed compliment to Geno Atkins from the DE position and a greater rush asset to a talented defensive backfield
25) San Diego Chargers - Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech: Fuller is working his way up the draftnik rankings and looking more and more like he will move into the mid first round. He's got everything you'd want out of a cornerback, good hips, quick feet and an understanding of the game. Fuller stood out in the game against Alabama and was solid all year. 
26) Cleveland Browns (Via Indianapolis) - Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State: Roby struggled this season and the microcosms of that are evident in the Wisconsin game against Jared Abbredaris. Roby got beat over the top with sloppy footwork on a number of occasions. That being said he has the athleticism to recover from mistakes and the ball skills to pull down the ball. Obviously needs to work on the consistency at the next level but the top end talent is there and that is worth the risk for a Browns defense that is putting together a talented young corps.
27) New Orleans Saints - Xavier Su'a-Filo, OG, UCLA: Su'a Filo may be the best guard in the draft, it's close between him and Martin who I had going much earlier in the round. Xavier started three seasons for the Bruins, spent two years on a mission in the middle but is developed and has a good head on his shoulders. With him on the inside the Saints line should have fewer problems keeping an aging Drew Brees upright this season.
28) Carolina Panthers - Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State: Benjamin is a raw talent with the ability to stretch the field which should be an asset for Cam Newton. Benjamin doesn't run the crispest routes but this is a pick that stretches the field now and develop a young talent into the future.
29) New England Patroits - Ra'Shead Hageman, DT, Minnesota: Hageman is a disruptive force in the middle with sloppy technique but the flashes are amazing. Hageman would have a year to watch and learn with Vince Wilfork before assuming more of a role on the defense. A talent like this late in the first is a pick ripe for the Patroits taking.
30) San Francisco 49ers - Jason Verrett, CB, TCU: Verrett is an undersized player, but that is not to say that he should be overlooked. Verrett plays with solid leverage on the outside and battles on every play and has the ability to high point the ball which is will be of the utmost importance against bigger and stronger players in the NFL.
31) Denver Broncos - Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State: Shazier can play just about any linebacking position but with the Broncos I think he would upgrade one of the inside linebacking slots. Shazier has great ability to get sideline to sideline along with enough straight line athleticism to cover tight ends and slot recievers over the middle. I think Shazier would be a great pick up for a team that needs to upgrade just a couple positions to try to make another run with Peyton Manning.
32) Seattle Seahawks - Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri: Ealy is a good athlete with limited polished moves but good hips and strong performance in the SEC. Ealy may not be the most polished but in a system like the Seahawks he would be able to mold that raw talent much the way they have worked with the talent of Bruce Irvin. Ealy is a bit of a project but a talented project.

That does it for the first round. This will all change in a matter of days but that is the fun of draft season.

2014 College Football Conference Rankings

It has been quite some time since I last posted and that is a something I'm not too proud of but I'm going to try to do a better job this summer and next football season. Anyhow, onto the important part, we start the off seasons preview with a preliminary ranking of the conferences. Futile? Maybe, but I've found that by breaking them down against each other I have a better platform to discuss each individually and to put them into context. Before I get to the actual rankings, however, let's take a look how the conferences have changed since last season (or will later this year). First, we have the conferences that stayed unchanged from last season. This group consists of the Big XII, Mid-American (MAC), Mountain West (MWC), Pac-12, and Southeastern (SEC). Starting in the 2014 season these changes have been made to the American Athletic Conference (AAC), Atlantic Coast (ACC), Big Ten (B1G), Conference USA (CUSA), and Sun Belt (SBC)... (For more information on my process check out the Explanation of Process page)

AAC: Lost - Louisville (ACC) & Rutgers (B1G) Added - East Carolina (CUSA), Tulane (CUSA), & Tulane (CUSA)
ACC: Lost - Maryland (B1G) Added - Louisville (AAC)
B1G: Added - Maryland (ACC) & Rutgers (AAC)
CUSA: Lost - East Carolina (AAC), Tulane (AAC), & Tulsa (AAC) Added- Old Dominion (FCS Trans*) & WKU (SBC)
SBC: Lost - WKU (CUSA) Added - Appalachian State (FCS Trans*), Georgia Southern (FCS Trans.*), Georgia State (FCS), Idaho (Indep.), & New Mexico State (Indep.)

*-Transitional team from FCS to FBS, not yet a full member of the FBS or the confrence that team is entering

In one way or another the altered conferences and the unaltered are all affected within the construct of rankings, so to compare this seasons results we next must look at last years ranks.

Tier 1: SEC, Big XII, & Pac-12 Tier 2: B1G & ACC Tier 3: MWC, AAC, & MAC Tier 4: CUSA & SBC Tier V: Independents

Now that we see how we went into last season, let's dive into a preliminary look at this year. With the odd-ball tier...

Tier V: Independents

I used the roman numeral here to denote that it wasn't a tier ranked on fair ground with the rest because it isn't a conference and is just a conglomeration of teams without homes. This season there are two lest independents as Idaho and New Mexico State, WAC vagabonds, found a home in the Sun Belt. This leaves us with four, Army, BYU, Navy, & Notre Dame.
Best Team: Notre Dame, a National Title contender two seasons ago, 2013 was a rough year but with the losses at BYU Notre Dame still is the cream of the independents.
Worst Team: Army, I wish the academy schools were better but they just don't have the resources to compete and there is that pesky enlistment after graduation limiting those entering the academy.

Tier 4: Conferences with really bad bottoms that negate any positives at the top.

CUSA: Conference USA slides a spot this season for one reason and one reason only, they lost three teams to the AAC and brought in WKU. The attrition wouldn't have been so bad but the AAC took East Carolina which has been a staple of good if not very good football and Tulane and Tulsa which have taken turns at being good for the last 30 seasons. This season Conference USA looks to Marshall and Rice to lead the way but those observing from the outside will see plenty of bad football at the bottom of both divisions.

SBC: The Sun Belt loses WKU which has been a stalwart for the conference for the last half decade or so. The additions of top tier FCS schools like Appalachian State and Georgia Southern should soften that blow some but the additions of the leftovers from the WAC keep the bottom of this conference pretty soft in 2014. The bright spot here is that Louisiana & Arkansas State should be bright spots in the non-conference and post season as both bring back talented rosters for the level.

Best Team: Louisiana (SBC), Suppose to be the cream of the conference last season, Louisianan and Mark Hudspeth bring back most of a team that underwhelmed in 2013. The depth across the board and the lessons from a broken season give this team a bunch of promise.

Worst Team: Idaho (SBC), A lot to choose from with the riff raff at the bottom of both leagues but Idaho has been a laughing stock for almost a decade now and shows no sign of slowing after a 1-11 season last year.

Tier 3: Conferences with better middles but lack the upside to really challenge the Big 5 conferences.

MAC: Again no changes for the MAC in 2014, although change is coming next season, but the departure of some elite level talent will hurt the overall product in the league. As usual the coaching ranks were plundered as Big 5 schools looked for up and comers to lead their programs but stars like Jordan Lynch and Kahlil Mack have left for the greener pastures of the NFL. Solid programs at the top and a couple of intriguing teams in the middle keep the MAC out of Tier 4 but a down year after the loss of so much talent and they may not stay up for long.

AAC: The AAC is the biggest loser in this round of realignment, because the loss of Louisville compounds the losses of Pitt and Syracuse from a year ago. Once a borderline Tier 2 conference with all the benefits of a BCS auto-bid the AAC now finds itself fighting the "Little Sisters of the Poor" for their shot at glory and their piece of the pie. The additions of East Carolina, Tulane and Tulsa don't do much for the conference image other than place the AAC in a spot similar to the old CUSA, which should produce some years of intriguing upside but be cast in a shadow of mediocrity.

MWC: Much like the MAC the Mountain West didn't change this season and looks poised to be the best of the Group of 5 conferences heading forward. Boise State finds itself under new management but a familiar face in year 1 of the post-Peterson era, but Brian Harsin will have his work cut out for him to continue the success of his old boss and predecessor. With the turmoil in Boise, Utah State & Colorado State should look to make strides and fight to make this conference the best of the rest.

Best Team: Boise State (MWC), this pick could look horrible a couple weeks into the season, once we realize how difficult the hole left by Chris Peterson but there is some talent in the coffers and everyone else has weak spots to address.

Worst Team: Western Michigan (MAC), really could have been a handful of MAC bottom dwellers but WMU has been a model of futility for a few years now and new management won't be able to turn that around year 1. Hopefully we see progress out of the Broncos this year but I don't see the talent in town to make this campaign much better than the last couple.

Tier 2: A new arrival, two stalwarts of this level and a conference with a problem.

ACC: The conference with the problem has last years national champion and Orange Bowl champion but it still lacks what it needs to move up in these rankings. Virginia Tech has fallen off and left a void for challenger that the conference hopes they and Louisville can fill and the constant shake up of the middle and bottom of the conference never leaves a hierarchy that lasts or build confidence for more than a year or two. Improvements by Miami or sustained success for a team like Duke or UNC would go a long way in seeing this conference differently.

B1G: The Big Ten has it's own problem and that begins and ends with it's win/loss record in bowl games, especially those against the SEC. With two teams in BCS bowls and shifting upwards of all bowl participants the conference shows little sign of that subsiding anytime soon. The bonus for the Big Ten over the ACC however is that although there is a significant drop off at the bottom the middle of the league has strengthened and a resurgence solidity of Minnesota and Iowa should boost the profile. Maryland and Rutgers don't add much but Maryland does have a recruiting base that should allow it to grow in the right environs.

Big XII: The biggest mover and only tier jumper in this years rankings are the Big XII which moved down becuase of the lack of elite teams at the top of the conference. Baylor looks like the only real National Title contender but spots 2-7 are extremely solid and with such solidity in the middle this conference doesn't have the uncertainties around it that the others in this tier do.

Best Team: Florida State (ACC), Florida State is the reigning national champion and possibly the best team in the country with the return of Jameis Winston, although there was a lot of attrition off of last years squad this should still be one of the most dangerous teams in the country in 2014.

Worst Team: Kansas (Big XII), the decided strategic advantage narrowly beat out Purdue for the worst spot in this tier. A whole bushel of JUCO transfers didn't have the desired effect in Lawrence and the result was continued dismal returns for a Jayhawks squad that hasn't really recovered after Mark Mangino left.

Tier 1: Elite conferences with multiple title contending and playoff contending teams.

Pac-12: The Pac-12 has no changes in 2014 and the conferences itself looks to be trending upwards after a very good series of hires last season. Rich Rod showed improvements at Arizona that manifested in a victory over Oregon late in the year. Todd Graham make immediate improvements in Tucson and made great strides year one. Mike Leach started slow but made some waves at Washington State and should continue to make waves both on and off the field. Jim Mora at UCLA pushed for a conference title and calmed a lot of fears about his ability to adjust to the college game. Sonny Dykes seems to be the only year one that didn't show a lot of positives but even that doesn't dampen the spirits in Berkley. Add the addition of Chris Peterson in Washington, the loss of Lane Kiffin from the conference and you have a set of coaches that should be envied by most conferences. This is all without mentioning that Stanford and Oregon should be bell cows for the conference. The Pac-12 should be a lot of fun this season again and may challenge the SEC for depth of elite teams at the top.

SEC: Once again I have the SEC as the top conference in the land but the divide is certainly not as big as it has been in some seasons the past decade or so. The top still boasts multiple challengers for national championships in Alabama, Auburn and LSU and the second tier looks very dangerous with Ole Miss, Georgia, South Carolina and maybe Florida if they get their stuff together. The bottom may be a bit weaker than it has in the past with Vandy taking a hit with the loss of a great coaching staff and Kentucky continuing its struggles. All in all this should still be one of the toughest and most competitive conferences in the country.

Best Team: Alabama (SEC), still the most talented team in the country and arguably the best coached, Nick Saban made some staff changes this off-season and brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the country to bolster a roster with a ridiculous amount of talent.

Worst Team: Colorado (Pac-12), I loved the Mike MacIntyre hire last and I still do but the turnaround at Colorado will be a long haul and needs patience. First off will be bringing in a greater talent base and developing overlooked players and that takes time. So unfortunately I don't see it happening for Colorado this season but they should keep moving forward under the current regime.

That does it for the conference rankings to start off the off-season. This is just the stepping stone to pieces I hope to write on each conference and what to watch for this upcoming season.

Rambling's 2013 Week 6 CFB Picks

Putting out my Thursday night picks right now and I'll have my saturday picks out later.

Thursday, October 3rd, 2013:
WKU at ULM, 6:30 pm ESPNU, A Thursday night matchup of two Sun Belt heavyweights Bobby Petrino and company head to Monroe to take on a Warhawks team that just lost Keith Browning for the year. Both teams have had flashes of BCS busting abilities but with lows that suggest a bowl game is guaranteed. I think the Hilltoppers prevail in this one on the road but it should be an exciting one. Winner: WKU ATS: ULM +7.5
#12 UCLA at Utah, 9:00 pm FOX Sports 1, The Bruins head to Salt Lake City for a Pac-12 matchup with a Utah team that has been better than expected and doesn't have a horrible loss on the schedule. This last bit is what sets this team apart from the last few iterations and that is progress in itself, but this team has wins over BYU and Utah State who are good teams that have tripped them up lately (not the bad losses I was talking about). UCLA for it's part has a star on their hands in the form of Brent Hundley and a defense that is working in a few new starters but has made good adjustments. I think Utah gives a stronger challenge than many expect but they UCLA offense will be too much in the end. Winner: UCLA ATS: UCLA +7

Saturday, October 5th, 2013:
#7 Louisville at Temple, 11:00 am ESPN3,
#25 Maryland at #8 Florida State, 11:00 am ESPN,
#20 Texas Tech at Kansas, 11:00 Fox Sports 1,
Georgia State at #1 Alabama, 11:21 am ESPN3,
#3 Clemson at Syracuse, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2,
#6 Georgia at Tennessee, 2:30 pm CBS,
Georgia Tech at #14 Miami (FL), 2:30 pm ESPNU,
Minnesota at #19 Michigan, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2,
Kansas State at #21 Oklahoma State, 2:30 pm ABC,
#23 Fresno State at Idaho, 4:00 pm,
#2 Oregon at Colorado, 5:00 pm Pac-12 Network,
#10 LSU at Mississippi State, 6:00 pm ESPN,
TCU at #11 Oklahoma, 6:00 pm FOX,
Arkansas at #18 Florida, 6:00 pm ESPN2,
#24 Ole Miss at Auburn, 6:00 pm ESPNU,
Kentucky at #13 South Carolina, 6:30 pm ESPN3,
#22 Arizona State vs Notre Dame, 6:30 pm NBC,
#4 Ohio State at #16 Northwestern, 7:00 pm ABC,
West Virginia at #17 Baylor, 7:00 pm Fox Sports 1,
#15 Washington at #5 Stanford, 9:30 pm ESPN,

Rambling's 2013 Week 5 CFB Picks

An easy week straight up last week was very disapointing against the spread as I went 5-9 ATS, but a resounding 14-0 straight up to take my totals to 37-29-2 and 58-10 respectively. This weeks slate of games is much better than in week 4 and should provide good matchups Thursday and Friday along with the slate after the 11:00 kickoffs on Saturday. Withouth further ado then, let's get to the picks. 

Thursday, September 26^th, 2013:

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 6:30 pm ESPN, Virginia Tech travels to Atlanta to take on Georgia Tech, to help sort out who will be the biggest contender to Miami in the Coastal division. Tech is already 2-0 and has a leg up but the Virginia Tech defense will be one of if not the toughest test for a Tech offensive that leans heavily run. Virginia Tech's aspirations for a division title will rest solely on it's ability to produce any kind of positive on offense. Logan Thomas has shown an inability to grow after a promising season two years ago and a once vaunted rushing attack is little more than shadow of what it once was. Winner: Georgia Tech ATS: Georgia Tech -7

Friday, September 27^th, 2013:

Utah State at San Jose State, 8:00 pm ESPN, These are two teams that have been consistantly working themselves into a more prominant place in the non-BCS hierarchy. San Jose State features David Fales one of the most watched non-BCS quarterbacks in the country and a player that truly impressed as a councelor at the Elite 11 camps this off-season. Fales will need some help from his supporting cast that does not seem to be up to par from the past couple of seasons. Utah State is trying to prove that their recent success wasn't just a produt of Gary Anderson and the way he ran the program. This should be a very good test for both teams as they look to challenge Boise State and Fresno State respectively in the MWC. Winner: Utah State ATS: San Jose State -9.5 (really like this bet if it gets to the key number of 10)

Saturday, September 28^th, 2013:

#11 Oklahoma State at West Virginia, 11:00 am ESPN, When West Virginia moved to the Big XII this would have been harrolded as a contest between two teams looking to stake a claim at challenging the big two for conference supremecy, but WVU has plummeted back to earth after moving to the confernce. This game is an after-thought this week and should do little but affirm the trajectories of these two programs, with the Cowboys looking to keep the shit righted heading towards a showdown with the Sooners later in the year. Winner: Oklahoma State ATS: West Virginia +19

#12 South Carolina at UCF, 11:00 am ABC, South Carolina travels south to take on a UCF team that will pose a better than average test of the Gamecocks defense. UCF's offense has looked legit through the first few weeks of the season and Blake Bortles and company should be jacked up to throw a few jabs at an SEC foe coming to visit. For South Carolina's part if they can limit their mistakes on offense they should be able to contain the Golden Knights offense and leave with a solid road win. Winner: South Carolina ATS: UCF +7

#15 Miami (FL) at USF, 11:00 am ESPNU, This game is already over, USF is really bad. Winner: Miami (FL) ATS: Miami (FL) -19

Wake Forest at #3 Clemson, 2:30 pm ESPNU, Clemson came, oh so very close to Clemsoning last week but Wake shouldn't pose to much of a threat to the Tigers hopes of staying undefeated early in the year, especially at home. Winner: Clemson ATS: Clemson -28

#6 LSU at #9 Georgia, 2:30 pm CBS, LSU heads to Athens and between the hedges to take on a Georgia team that has a dominant run game with Gurley and Marshall and a QB that performs at an exceptional rate at home. The Georgia defense should provide less of a challenge than their offense but a young unit has a lot of talent. LSU for it's part has one of the deepest running back stables in the country, a very good O-line and a QB in Mettenberger that has made huge strides under Cam Cameron's tuteledge. On defense the Tigers have reloaded once again, a young secondary has performed well and the depth up front is truly impressive. I admit that I believe LSU is the better team but Georgia plays exceptionally well at home. Winner: LSU ATS: LSU +3

#8 Florida State at Boston College, 2:30 pm ABC/ESPN2, Much like Clemson's game last week on the road at North Carolina State this one seems cut and dry. With the play of Winston and the Seminoles offense and the ineptitued of the BC to put too much together lately this one should be a cake walk but Florida State has been known to "Clemson" at least once a season and on the road in a game without much at stake seems like a very FSU place to do just that. Winner: Florida State ATS: Boston College +22.5

#14 Oklahoma at #22 Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC, The Sooners and the Fighting Irish meat in South Bend for a matchup that has me stumped about what kind of game it will be. Notre Dame won last seasons matchup and in dominant fashion but the run game just isn't there and Rees has been inconsistant at best. Oklahoma's best unit is on defense where they have been surprisingly stout and an offensive attack that seems to have added a second dimension with the Belldozer at QB. Winner: Oklahoma ATS: Notre Dame +3.5

#21 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama, 5:30 pm ESPN, Alabama hasn't looked like the best team in the country this season but they haven't looked worse than top 5 and even that may be a stretch. They are still one of the most consistant teams in the country with a couple weaknesses. The two biggest are the cornerbacks and the offensive line where attrition of graduations and drafted players have left and young players have had to step up. Ole Miss is much improved but if they keep this anywhere close to a two score game they have done well in this game. Winner: Alabama ATS: Alabama -14

#10 Texas A&M at Arkansas, 6:00 pm ESPN2, Texas A&M's offense should put up points in droves against Arkansas but A&M's defense is a liability. Arkansas should be able to run the ball at a weak defense but they don't have the firepower or the defense to make this one terribly close. Winner: Texas A&M ATS: (No line on this game but anything under a touchdown I'd take)

Arizona at #16 Washington, 6:00 pm FOX, This game would be much more intriguing if it was being played at Arizona but the Wildcats have not made enough strides on defense to make much of a game of this. Washington comes into this game wanted to prove the Boise game wasn't just a one hit wonder. Winner: Washington ATS: Washington -10

#20 Florida at Kentucky, 6:00 pm ESPNU, This one shouldn't pose too much of a challenge for the Gators, but a defense that is losing talented players at a startling rate to injuries is going to have to come together quickly for the Gators to stay in the divsional race. Kentucky for it's part won't be much of a problem but could use a good showing here to cement some verbal commitments. Winner: Florida ATS: Kentucky +13.5

#23 Wisconsin at #4 Ohio State, 7:00 pm ABC, Wisconsin heads to Columbus, for what is a burgeoning rivalry game between the Bucks and the Badgers. Braxon Miller is back but Kenny Guiton has played well enough to be listed as co-starter and both are expected to play. On defense Ohio State hasn't seen the type of running game that Wisconsin boasts but a young front seven has shown growth against lesser competition. Wisoconsin is still thin in the defensive backfield but a front seven lead by Chris Borland and Beau Allen should pose a good test of the Buckeyes offense. On offense the Badgers boast two dynamic talents at running back with Senior James White and Sophomore Melvan Gordon who have helped lead Wisconsin to an average of 350 yards rushing per game against an admittedly below average early slate. Winner: Wisconsin ATS: Wisconsin +7 

#5 Stanford at Washington State, 9:00 pm ESPN, Stanford travels to Pullman to take on a Mike Leach squad that has been decidedly competitve this season no matter what the win-loss record may say. Stanford still wins this one easily but it should be a nice conference primer for a Cardinal squad that has looked less than stellar so far in the non-conference slate. Winner: Stanford ATS: Washington State +10

California at #2 Oregon, 9:30 pm Pac-12 Network, Oregon is on a blistering pace this year once again and welcome California and it's sieve like defense. Cal should put up some points, but don't expect this one to be close past half time, if at all. Winner: Oregon ATS: Cal +37.5

USC at Arizona State, 9:30 pm ESPN2, USC heads to Tempe to take on what looks to be the second best team in the Pac-12 South. Arizona State boasts a, controversial, win over Wisconsin and a team that has taken great strides in two years under Todd Graham. USC for it's part is feeling the sanctions it was placed under while getting sub-par quarterback play and what now wholeheartedly needs to be considered at best average caoching from Lane Kiffin on offense. I think USC is better than what it has shown so far this season but I'm not sure this team has played well enough to endear any confidence to get the road win this week. Winner: Arizona State ATS: Arizona State -5.5 

#25 Fresno State at Hawaii, 11:00 pm, Fresno comes off a hard fought victory over long time thorn in the side Boise State, but a trip to Hawaii should heal all wounds from last week. Hawaii is better than expected but not exactly great. Winner: Fresno State ATS: Fresno State -18.5