The Pac-12
has had a good couple of years, supplanting the Big XII and Big Ten as the
second best conference in football and in certain individual seasons ascending
to the top of the conference dog pile. The big questions heading into this
preview is who will win the North and will a South Division team put up a real
challenge to either Oregon or Stanford.
Subtractions/Additions
Once again
no additions or subtractions for the Pac-12 since the addition of Utah and
Colorado. Unlike the Big XII, where there are often rumors and proposals of
what additions could be made, the Pac-12 doesn’t have an obvious next move in
realignment.
Recent History
The
Pac-12/10 has been won by either Stanford or Oregon since 2009. Oregon won the
title in ’09-’11 and Stanford has won back to back in ’12 and ’13. Over the
course of that stretch, USC has buckled under the strains of major NCAA
sanctions both Arizona schools replaced head coaches and UCLA has been working
their way back to prominence.
Coaching Changes
There were
two coaching changes after the 2014 season and both were caused by the firing
of Lane Kiffin from USC. Kiffin proved to not be able to handle all of the
challenges of being a major college football head coach and his time at USC
culminated with a fractured squad and dismal results that saw him fired
mid-season. To replace Kiffin the Trojans hired Steve Sarkisian from
Washington. Sarkisian was best known at Washington for always losing four games
and never doing what he threatened and break into the elite tier in the conference.
Sarkisian is another Pete Carroll assistant, as was Kiffin, and I’m intrigued
by what he can do at a place with a truly elite recruiting base. To replace
Sark Washington brought in Chris Petersen from Boise State. Boise had taken a
step back the last couple of seasons but what Petersen was able to accomplish
there was truly impressive. 92-12 is impressive anywhere and if it weren’t for
#CollegeKickers Petersen and Boise would probably have had a chance at a
National Championship. If he can do what we all expect from him at a program
that has shown a renewed financial backing for the football program then this
could be a potential buster of the Oregon Stanford strangle hold on the North.
I really like the Petersen hire and think it was of the best this offseason.
The Sark hire? Well let’s just say I have tempered my expectations and wonder
how many four loss seasons will be tolerated.
Team Write-Ups (Division, 2013 W-L, Total Returning Starters, Returning Off (Starters (QB), % yards), Returning Def (Starters, % yards) *coach records are career numbers
Editor’s Note: Brock got a little
carried away on Stanford and I apologize but they have enough turnover and
enough talent that it needed to be explored.
Stanford
Cardinal – (North, 11-3, 5(Y), 57.5%, 6, 52.4%) When
David Shaw took over for Jim Harbaugh, many thought Stanford would regress back
towards their historical place in the Pac-12 order. That didn’t quite happen.
Since stumbling that first season against Oregon and losing out on the
division, Stanford has beaten Oregon twice in a row and won the conference
championship game both seasons. Shaw has kept the identity started by Harbaugh
and continued to build on the success of the former regime. Kevin Hogan is back
under center for the Cardinal. He has been inconsistent as a starter, showing
flashes of being one of the better QBs in the country but with far too much
inconsistency in the middle. Hogan had a 2:1 TD to INT ratio, completed 61% of
his passes at 8.3 yards per attempt. The offense should be built around Hogan a
little bit more this year as he enters his third season as the starter.
Especially with the departures of Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson who
combined for over 2000 yards on the ground in 2013. To replace that production,
is Resmound Wright who averaged 5.1 yards per carry on limited snaps last
season. The player I’m most excited to see perform is Barry Sanders. The few
opportunities he had last year, he showed flashes of some of that same
brilliance his father had. With an increased role in the offense Wright and
Sanders could provide the next great 1-2 for Stanford. Much like we alluded to
when talking about Hogan, the returning receivers should allow the offense to
open up a bit. Leading the returners is Ty Montgomery who should be one of the
best big play receivers in the country. Both he and Devon Cajuste return with
62% catch rates and sophomore Michael Rector joins with a 16 yards a target
freshman year but needs to work on the drops. There is a lot of talent
returning among the pass catchers, and should be a very good unit once again.
Overall this offense should be just fine even with the attrition and if they
can get better on standard downs they could be downright nasty. The defense
finished 2013 fourth in F+, but losing five starters won’t be a cake walk to
replace. Stanford only needs to replace one starter from the defensive line,
but Josh Mauro was a disruptive force of a 3-4 DE. Mauro contributed 42
tackles, 12.5 TFLs and four sacks and created three turnovers. The good news si
his replacement should signs of having the burst to pick up the slack left
over. Senior Henry Anderson only played in 8 games last season but in that time
he recorded 14 tackles, but more impressively were his 4 TFLs and 3 sacks. If
he and returning starter Blake Lueders can increase their output and disruption
the line shouldn’t fall off too much especially with a very talented two deep.
Linebacker got hit a little harder. Shane Skov and Trent Murphy are gone and
both were key cogs in the last couple Stanford defenses. Skov was the tackle
machine from on the inside with 85.5 tackles, 13 TFLs and 5.5 sacks but his
disruption pales to what is lost in Murphy. Murphy only had 49.5 tackles but he
had 23.5 TFLs, 15 sacks and had 7 passes defensed. How Stanford replaces Murphy
will decide how far this defense falls. There are great players returning, A.J.
Tarpley and James Vaughters return for their senior seasons and Tarpley has all
the makings of a great college inside linebacker. 2013 saw him provide 72.5 tackles,
5 TFLs and 1 sack and enough effects on the pass game over the middle to have
an impact. Vaughters was definitely the least active of the starters with 28
tackles, but if he can continue to build off of his 6 TFLs and 4 sacks, and if
he does what last year hinted at he should pick up a good portion of the slack
left by Murphy. The replacement on the inside should be Joe Hemschoot who saw
time in all and had flashes, but the more intriguing replacement is at OLB. The
battle should be between Senior Kevin Anderson, who saw time in every game, and
high four star RS freshman Peter Kalambayi. Anderson has the edge experience
wise but Kalambayi has the look of a shot to the arm athlete who could add a
dimension lost with the departure of Trent Murphy. Stanford’s secondary is a
good place where talking about returners becomes a fun exercise. I could say
any of these and they would be true… They return, 3 of the top four players
from last year, 3 of 6, 4 of 7, 4 of 8, 5 of 9 or 6 of 10 and each tells its
own story. But the way I look at it is they bring back two corners and a SS
with 19 passes defensed, but lose the starting and back up free safeties who
combined for 98 tackles. Senior Kyle Olugbode will be the key cog on whether
this secondary will have a weak spot. Overall there is a lot of talent back but
who will step up to fill the vacancies because outside the big three of Lyons,
Richards and Carter there remains a bunch of question marks. Stanford is going
to be a top ten team once again in 2014 and could have one of the best offenses
in the offenses in the country. The defense has a lot of talent back but the
departures are very good players and replacing that production won’t be easy. Head Coach: David Shaw (34-7) Since 2011
Oregon
Ducks – (North, 11-2, 9(Y), 67.7%, 6, 55.3%) Oregon
took a step back in year 1 post Chip Kelly. That said they still finished fifth
in F+ and went 11-2. Looking ahead, Oregon has one more season of Marcus
Mariota at QB and that alone should keep them in the top ten nationally. Mariota
may not go 11 games without throwing a pick but he should continue to build off
a great 2013. At least pre-injury. Mariota completed 63.5% of his passes, threw
31 TDs and 4 INTs, while throwing for 8.7 yards per attempt and a respectable
4.5% sack rate. Mariota was the offense in 2013, yes the skill position players
were great and the talent overall was very good but the chinks in the armor
showed up to a much greater degree once Mariota was injured. If he comes back
healthy and performs as well as last year this offense should be a beast to
handle once again. The run game was still very good, but Mariota is the best
rushing threat they have. At 11 yards a rush he almost doubled the production
per rush of the running backs. His main compatriots in the back field will be
junior Byron Marshall and sophomore Thomas Tyner. Tyner missed five games last
season but averaged 6.1 yards a carry when on the field, about the same as
Marshall who averaged 6.2. Tyner did take better advantage good blocking and is
worth some salivating as he heads into his second year in the system. I would
have been much more upbeat about the receiving corps had Bralon Addison not
been lost for the season this offseason. Addison was a very consistent option
for the Mariota last season and second on the roster behind Josh Huff as far as
efficiency. Huff and De’Anthony Thomas are gone and now we get to see how the
improved recruiting is going to translate. Senior Keanon Love will need to
improve off a solid, if unspectacular, 2013. Sophomores Johnny Mundt, TE,
Dwayne Stanford, WR, and Chance Allen, WR, all need to step up in a big way.
Mundt and Allen both exceeded 80% catch rates and Stanford’s 2012 showed
flashes of brilliance but all will have much increased roles. The defensive
line loses three players from the seven that saw time last year. And there is
talent, you can see the effort to recruit on defense, but they need to perform
in their junior years. DE DeForest Buckner had a solid season as a junior and
at 6’7” 286 is a beast of a man. To bookend him, I think they will call on 6’8”
296 Ark Armstead, to make twin towers that should disrupt throwing lanes.
Inside, Alex Balducci and Sam Kamp need to make their presence felt with. There
is talent here, but at some point the old cliché is true. “You’re going to get
me fired with your potential.” Four of the top five tacklers return from last
season and most important is rush backer Tony Washington who recorded 12 TFLs
and 7.5 sacks. He was a force for this group last season and needs to do that
and more to help the out the inexperienced front three. WLB Derrick Malone
should have ample opportunity to improve on his 76 tackles but MLB and SLB will
need a greater impact for this unit to be well above average. The great news
for the secondary is that Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is back, the bad news is the next
three back four players are gone. Ekpre-Olomu is one of the best corners in
college football and should be a rock on which to build this defense, but he is
going to need a lot of help from fellow seniors CBs Troy Hill & Dior Mathis
and FS Erick Dargan as they also assimilate a lot of young raw talent to the
secondary. I think the linebackers should be very good, that there is a lot of
talent hitting the show me year on the line and an elite CB with seniors in the
back but a lot of question marks that need to be sured up fast. Overall this is
still going to be a fifteen team but another regression from the defense could
be what keeps this team from being a top five or ten team and starts the wonderings
about Mark Helfrich’s ability to keep this an elite program and not just a good
one. Head Coach: Mark Helfrich (11-2) Since 2013
Editor’s Note: I let Kriha work on a team with a little more
upside this week and it turns out snark can work for possible title contenders
too.
UCLA
Bruins – (South, 10-3, 8(Y), 76.8%, 8, 68.7%) I was assigned UCLA because Brock wanted me to
preview “Neil Armstrong’s college team.” So let’s settle a couple things first.
1) Neil Armstrong got his masters at USC, not UCLA. I’m sure they don’t mind be
confused for each other. It’s a harmless mistake, like not knowing the
difference between India and Pakistan. They all look the same as each other.
India and Pakistan are fighting over the Kashmir and kids at UCLA and USC also
fight over Cashmere, probably. 2) Neil (we were on a first name basis) got his
USC masters AFTER the moon landing. The man was there to capitalize on being
the biggest badass in the history of ever and get himself some SoCal poontang,
the degree was just to show off. Now that that’s out of the way, let’s take a
look at this UCLA team. The Bruins, named for a Dutch brown bear who frequently
fell victim to the schemes of a French fox, look to make a run at the Pac-12
title aided by their lack of any games against foxes or the French. The Bears
are led on the field by Heisman hopeful quarterback Brett Hundley who decided
to return for his junior season after multiple mock drafts had him going to the
Minnesota Vikings. Roaming the sidelines is Coach Jim Mora. Who is known mostly
for his father’s famous rant, (PLAYOFFS?! YOU KIDDING ME?! PLAYOFFS?! I JUST
HOPE WE CAN WIN A GAME!) and had his NFL career cut short when the Seattle
Seahawks replaced him with USC’s Pete Carroll who was fleeing the college ranks
after years of cheating with the Trojans. With the Mora/Hundley duo, UCLA can
do pretty much anything. The other offensive skill positions are led by speedy
WR Jordan Payton who is due for a huge season and running back Jordon James who
should be the second leading rusher behind Hundley. On the defensive side of
the ball, the Bruins are loaded at linebacker with Myles Jack and Eric
Kendricks both looking to take their games to the next level. The question mark
on this side of the ball is the line, where they should feature a deep rotation
of players, but lack star power. So now that I’ve sufficiently BSed my way
through a player preview, let’s look at the schedule. The season starts with
nonconference play on the road against my adopted team, UVA of the ACC, at home
against Memphis of the AAC, and on the road against the Big XII’s Texas who
feature their first new head coach since Mack Brown started last millennium.
Despite the atypically difficult nonconference schedule for the Brown Bears,
expect a 3-0 start with only slightly more than minimal effort. The conference
schedule is about as manageable as anybody could have hoped, with powerhouses
Stanford and Oregon (and sleeper USC) making the trip to Pasadena, while the
toughest the road has to offer is conference opener Arizona State on September
25th. I’m gonna go slightly more optimistic than most with a prediction of 11-1
or 12-0 with that possible loss coming against Oregon or Stanford, a Pac-12 championship
game victory, and a berth into the new college football playoffs. Head Coach: Jim L. Mora (19-8) Since 2012
USC
Trojans – (South, 10-4, 7(Y), 59.4%, 7, 69.2%) What
to say about Sark that hasn’t been joked about a million times. I think this is
an uninspired hire, not a bad hire, but not one that I think takes this program
back to the level of success they expect. That being said he inherits a depth
chart that lacks some depth but has a lot of top flight talent despite NCAA
sanctions. The enigma that is Cody Kessler will more than likely be the
deciding factor of Sark year 0. If the Kessler of the second half season (70%
comp., 11-2 TD-INT) or even just his season average 65.2%, 7.1 yards per
attempt show up then the offense could be better than expected but if subpar
Kessler shows back up then all bets are off. If Kessler does start off slow, RS
freshman Max Browne has the talent to be very good but Sark may not want to use
him this early in his career. The good news is the skill players are deep and
talented. Tre Madden and Javorius Allen both return for their junior seasons
after splitting careers last season. Allen was a bit better at 5.8 yards per
carry to Madden’s 5.1, and slightly better with better blocking but the
difference is marginal. The real game breaker may be sophomore Justin Davis.
Davis rushed for 6.8 yards per carry did a great job of taking advantage of
good blocking when he got the opportunity to carry. Overall whomever is QB
should be aided by a very good running game. Marquise lee is gone and that’s
not good but Nelson Agholor is back and was the better receiver by just about
all measures in 2013 (918 yards/62.9% catch rate). In addition to Agholor are
four star sophomore Darreus Rogers (64.7% catch rate), and a handful of young players
who will be called upon to replace the departed and those who didn’t pan out.
The defensive line will need to replace George Uko at DE, a job that will
likely fall to former four star recruit Greg Townsend Jr. The good news is that
DE Leonard Williams and NT Antwaun Woods. Woods was your prototypical 3-4 NT
and controlled two blockers to allow the LBs to stuff plays. A bigger rotation
than four players would probably behoove the new staff, but that assumes that
unproven commodities like DT Delvon Simmons and five star RS freshman Kenny
Bigelow show they are ready for the responsibility. The linebackers should be
pretty good even with the loss of Devon Kennard (no small loss). Denards
presence off the edge was big but an increased role for J. R. Tavai suggest he
should be able to recreate enough of the disruption to limit the drop off.
Hayes Pollard should be the rock in the middle after a 69 tackle 7 passes
defensed 2013. And the rest of the corps will be the winners of a battle of a
handful of four star athletes that saw varying amounts of 2013 playing time.
The secondary should be a nice blend of young, experienced and talented. FS
Josh Shaw is back after an 11 passes defensed season and 55 tackles. SS Su’a
Cravens, a five star sophomore, with 46 tackles and 5 passes defensed should
continue to grow and created a very good pair of safeties over the top. The CBs
should be a need to see some younger players step up but Kevon Seymour (JR),
Anthony Brown (SR) and Devian Shelton (SO) should be good enough with help over
the top to allow younger players to work into the rotation. The defense should
have a good enough front, a very good LB corps and a secondary that has pieces
but will need to coalesce at CB to be very good. Overall this is a dangerous
Trojans team, but the play of Cody Kessler is the key to it all working right. Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian (34-29) Since New Hire
Arizona
Wildcats – (South, 8-5, 6(N), 44.5%, 6, 49.7%) Rich
Rod is back to his old ways in the desert, after the disastrous stint in Ann
Arbor, and has Arizona trending in a great direction in year three. Year three
might be a little more challenging though. 10 starters to replace including the
QB and heading into fall ball they don’t have that hole filled yet. There are
six options on the roster but three make the most sense. First is Jesse
Scroggins, a 6’3” 208 pound senior who transferred from USC after the 2012
season. A former four star recruit Scroggins has seen a lot in his four years
but there is a reason he hadn’t seen the field yet. To compete with Scroggins
are sophomore Connor Brewer (6’2”, 196 lbs) and RS freshman Anu Solomon (6’2”
198 lbs) who were also four stars but relative unknowns heading into the year.
Whoever plays QB is going to have to acclimate with a new backfield mate. Only
Jared Baker (JR) is back and he was pretty meh, in his limited carries in 2013.
To replace Ka’Deem Carey (1889 yards) you more than likely are going to be
looking to RS freshman Zach Green, diminutive freshman Tyrell Johnson or
freshman Nick Wilson. Wilson is the most highly touted and Johnson by stature
looks to be more of a spell back and change of pace. Whichever one of the four
of them starts has big shoes to fill as Carey, carried (I know) the offense at
times in 2013. Finally some good news, the receiving corps returns talent.
Austin hill is back after a torn ACL in last year’s spring game, if he has
regained his athleticism he will certainly be a boon to whomever starts at QB.
Joining Hill are sophomores Nate Phillips and Samajie Grant, return after
leading the team in receiving in 2013. Although in Grant’s case that isn’t a
great thing as he only averaged 5 yards catch. Phillips was much better
averaging 9.2 yards per target, with good hands. The key is going to be the
steps forward those two young receivers make while incorporating a mix of young
and old as you move farther down the depth chart. The offense overall will be
fine and Rodriguez knows what he is doing but early season may see a few more
bobbles than are normally associated with a Rich Rod offense. On defense the
story is all about speed, and the Wildcats have done a good job of recruiting
that way. The line only returns two players with experience, and that problem
is minimized some by the 3-3-5, but young guys are going to need to step up
early to keep the depth issues from becoming too serious. DE Reggie Gilbert
should be a force setting the edge, coming off a junior season in which he
recorded 7 TFLs and 4 sacks and should improve on his 24.5 in a more premiere
role. Bookending the line opposite Gilbert is fellow senior Dan Pettinato who
missed three games last year but in a backup role he produced a sack and a TFL
but needs to prove he can stay healthy and perform at an increased rate in
2014. A trip of RS freshman should provide depth on the outside, whereas inside
at NT there is nothing but questions. There are three NTs in on the roster,
sophomore Dwight Melvin a high three star at 6’1” 272, junior Jeff Worthy 6’2”
282 and freshman Marcus Griffin 6’3” 296 a four star out of Washington who has
the size to clog the middle for the Wildcats. If Griffin matures, and Melvin
can mold into a solid performer this could be a very good interior with the
experience on the edge. The LBs lose two starters from last year’s corps and a
combined 154.5 tackles. The biggest loss is WLB Marquis Flowers who had 11.5
sacks and was a disruptive force. Scooby Wright who started at SLB last season
will move inside to replace Jake Fischer and his 80 tackles but that creates
even more of an issue on the outside as Wright contributed 9 TFLs from the
outside last seasons. Sophomores Derrick Turituri and DeAndre’ Miller will need
to show early on that they have what it takes to replace very good production
on the outside if the Wildcat defense is going to be as stout in the front six
as last season. The secondary is the strength of this defense and in a league
with great offenses that’s a really nice thing to have. The back five only
loses one of the five starters from last season and one of the top nine players
from last season. CB Shaquille Richardson and his 47.5 tackles and 7 passes
defensed are gone and that’s a bummer but it’s not exactly crippling. This is a
senior laden group, BANDIT safety Jared Tevis, FS Jourdon Grandon, SPUR safety
Tra’Mayne Bondurant and CB Jonathan McKnight are all seniors and combine to
bring back 243 tackles, 12 TFLs, 9 INTs and 21 pass breakups. That and a
handful of younger players with playing time under their belts means this
defense is going to be really good with anything for a contribution from the
front six. This team is going to be very good on defense and Rich Rod has a
history of putting out good offenses returning depth be damned. The biggest key
is making the right decision at QB and working in new RBs and DLs. Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez (136-94-2) Since 2012
Washington
Huskies – (North, 9-4, 7(N), 40.3%, 5, 59.6%) I’m
going to say this every time I talk about Washington and that is they got a
coup of a hire when they acquired Chris Petersen. Keith Price is gone, but
by-gosh is there talent to replace him. There are four players on the depth
chart to replace price. All are sophomores or younger. All are four star
recruits. Cyler Miles was the only one of those four that saw time last season,
but Miles was suspended in February and will miss the opener against Hawaii.
Battling Miles in fall camp has been RS freshman Troy Williams who has
impressed at times, but neither has pulled away. Williams will most likely
start week 1 but this battle is far from decided. Whoever starts will be
breaking in a trio of backs who saw some time last year but nothing substantial
(43-48 carries). Seniors Jesse Callier and Deontae Cooper will battle it out
with sophomore Dwayne Washington and RS freshman and high three star Lavon
Coleman. Washington has the high upside of the group as he averaged 7.1 yards
per carry last season to Callier’s 4.4 and Cooper’s 6.3. A new staff may put a
greater emphasis on the youth and working towards the future but Washington
definitely showed flashes of being the next in a line of very good Washington
backs. WR is where it gets interesting for the Huskies offense. Slot receiver
Jaydon Mickens is back for his junior season after catching 65 passes for 688
yards. Along with his 79.3% catch rate he should be a stabilizing force for
whomever starts at QB. Behind Mickens it gets slim quick. Austin
Seferian-Jenkins is gone to the NFL and the Huskies are going to have a time
finding his replacement. Senior Kevin Williams is a big bodied (6’3” 221 lb) WR
but his production suggests he may not be much more than a big target. The
intrigue with the receivers lies with sophomores John Ross (WR) and Darrell
Daniels (TE). Ross was explosive in a small sample of receptions last season
and could be a spark for an offense that could use some help and Daniels,
although raw, has the physical traits to slide into the hole left
Seferian-Jenkins and the pedigree to suggest he could do it. The good news for
the replacements is the line should be solid as every returning projected starter
has 20 or more starts to his name. On the other side of the ball, Petersen and
company find themselves with an abundance of experience coupled with youth to
mold. The line returns four starters, three of them seniors, from last year’s
team. The ends are fantastic, senior Hau’oli Kikaha and junior Cory Littleton
combined for 105.5 tackles, 25.5 TFLs and 18 sacks (Kikaha had 13). If
Littleton can continue to improve off his sophomore year and Kikaha just
replicates his junior season this could be one of the better pass rushes in the
conference and country. Inside one technique Danny Shelton is back for his
senior season and is looking to build off a stellar junior campaign (47.5
tackles, 3.5 TFLs and 2 sacks). The three technique Evan Hudson was statistically
the least impactful of the trio and needs to become much more active,
especially in the run game. Behind those four old soles is a group of youth
that should benefit from another year of tutelage and considering the offenses
in conference, some playing time. Of the group of five younger players,
sophomore DE Marcus Farria and his 5.5 tackles, 2.5 sacks (also counted as
TFLs) along with RS freshman four star NT Elijah Woods could be players headed
for breakouts over the next year or two. Behind a stout and deep DL is a
Linebacking corps that should be very good despite losing OLB Princeton
Fuimaono and his 68.5 tackles and 4 TFLs. Shaq Thompson has all the tools to be
one of the best edge players in college and just overall a disruptive force,
and should improve on his 64 tackle, 4 TFL and 5 passes defensed from last
season. On the other side, Travis Feeney was a bit more disruptive than
Thompson on the stat line with 5 TFL and 6 passes defensed. Inside John Timu
looks to reprise his junior output of 57.5 tackles. Behind the three
upperclassmen are four RS freshmen (1 4* & 3 3*). The front seven is going
to be very good and very deep and probably the best combination of units on the
team. The secondary is a different story. Junior CB Marcus Peters returns after
a sophomore campaign in which he contributed 49.5 tackles, 3.5 TFls and 14
passes defensed, the five INTs might come down a touch but none the less the
defense builds around a lockdown corner. Gone from the secondary are a combined
185 tackles, 9.5 TFls and 29 passes defensed from three safeties and 2 CB. If
Peters is a great known the rest of his compatriots in a reworked secondary are
the great unkowns for the 2014 season. Only sophomore safety Kevin King played
in more than half the games (10) or recorded more than seven tackles (15.5).
The rest of the secondary is likely to be comprised of a collection of very
young but high upside talent. Four star recruits in the form of sophomore
safety Brandon Beaver, and RS freshmen, CB Jermaine Kelly and Budda Baker may
become household names sooner than later and need to make strides as the season
goes on if the defense is going to gel. Overall there are questions at QB, WR
and DB but the RBs, OL and front seven should all be above average to great
units that are able to help mute the shortcomings in year one of Chris
Petersen. Head Coach: Chris Petersen (92-12) Since New Hire
Washington
State Cougars – (North, 6-7, 8(Y), 91.5%, 6, 52.1%) Mike
Leach is headed into his third season and is looking to build off the jump they
made in 2013. Connor Halliday is back and much maligned but he wasn’t horrible
in 2013. 63% completion percentage, 4.2% sack rate was high for a pocket
passer, but he was asked to carry the offense with 714 pass attempts. In
Leach’s offense you’re never going to have huge yards per attempt so just about
6 is what you would expect. If Halliday can continue to improve, this Air Raid
attack should be a real scare for everyone in the Pac-12. The backs were good
enough when they got attempts, but with the Cougars passing 85% of the time
they saw a combined 172 attempts between the top 3. Both Marcus Mason and
Teondray Caldwell should be good enough when they get the chances to make
enough happen. The two running backs saw 99 targets in the passing game and
Mason was much better at taken advantage of those extra targets, with 6 yards
per and 79% catch rate. Everyone of consequence is back in the receiving corps
and the two deep returns all but 65 targets from last year or just under 10%.
If Gabe Marks (Jr), Dom Williams (Jr) and River Cracraft (So) can continue to
improve this could be an elite passing offense and start to reach levels that
Leach’s Tech teams did. Only two players that saw action last year are gone
from the front are gone and only one was a starter. Ioane Gauta and his 8 TFLs
and 3 sacks are going to be missed but Junior Darryl Paulo put up comparable
numbers in limited time and should combine with Kalafitoni Pole (Sr) and Xavier
Cooper (Jr) to create a pretty good interior for the Cougars. There is some
good depth but they will need to be much more consistent with the experience
they have returning. Will linebacker Justin Sagote is gone after a very
productive season. To replace his 83 tackles, is Junior Tana Pritchard who had
43 tackles last year in 13 games as the number two on the depth chart. The
starting four should be good, all but SAM backer Cyrus Coen saw time in all 13
games and if they can build off the collective 25.5 TFLs this front seven could
be much better than is expected from a Leach team’s defense. The secondary is
going to need that font seven to be better than expected because five of the
top seven from last season are gone. Sophomore CB Daquawn Brown and junior FS
Taylor Taliulu are going to need to be rock on which younger players learn and
rally around or this back four is going to be torched. Overall I’m hopeful for
the defense, the front seven has good experience and production, but the key is
as always Leach and his offense. If Connor Halliday can improve with on good
but inconsistent numbers and the skill positions come along this could be the
third year breakthrough for Wazzu we’ve been waiting for. Head Coach: Mike Leach (93-59) Since 2012
Arizona
State Sun Devils – (South, 10-4, 7(Y), 59.1%, 3, 29.1%) Todd
Graham managed to stay in one place for more than a year and has settle in
Tempe, where he surpassed almost all expectation year one. Heading into year
three there is some remodeling to be done on defense, more work to be done in
recruiting, but the offense should be pretty good. Taylor Kelly is back for his
senior year and year three under the tutelage of Graham and OC Mike Norvell.
Kelly’s numbers in 2013 weren’t as good as 2012 but they were still good enough
and if he continues to grow into the system in his senior should rebound to
near 2012 levels. That would mean 65% completions, 7+ yards per attempt and
hopefully a sack rate that reduces from 7.5% with added experience. Kelly also
adds a dimension in the run game, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, but with
Marion Grice leaving where the production next to him will come from is a big
unknown heading into the year. Junior D.J. Foster is back after a limited role
in 2013 (93 rushes), but he showed flashes in those attempts and at 5.4 yards
per carry should be able to recreate Grice’s role fairly well in 2014. Behind
Foster is Senior Deantre Lewis who, rushed for a respectable 5.2 yards per
carry but that was on a small sample of 58 rushes. The back of the future, four
star freshman Kalen Ballage, may see some limited snaps but will be buried on
the roster. Unlike the backs, WR is a position that doesn’t have those who
should assume more time after solid work in limited snaps. The pass catchers
here are raw and will need to mature fast in a system that looks to pass first.
Jaelen Strong is back after a 1100+ yards last season and a 63% catch rate.
With the lack of depth behind him he may see even more than 120 targets in
2014. Foster could be a boon in the pass game out of the backfield after 63
catches last season. The next four pass catchers from last year are gone and what
is left is uninspiring to say the least. Sophomores Cameron Smith and Frederick
Gammage need to step up in a hurry. Smith only caught 8 of his 19 targets in
2013 and at a 42% clip that won’t keep you on the field. Gammage catch all six
of his targets but will see a much heavier workload in 2014. Behind those two,
RS freshmen Ronald Lewis and Ellis Jefferson will push the two sophomores and
hopefully produce a competitive environment in camp that improves everyone’s
game. There is hope on offense, a good amount of returning players and a senior
QB who started the last three seasons. The defense, well you saw the numbers up
top, three returning starters, less than 1/3 of the tackles returning. The
defensive line loses all three starters from last season, and even considering
a less than optimal Will Sutton the loss is big. 116 tackles, 35.5 TFLs and 16
sacks are gone and replaced by a group that had 4 TFLs and 1 sack to their
names. Those three players have good pedigree (two 4 stars, one 3), but between
their increased workload and the maturation of some younger players there
figures to be a lot of growing pains up front. Onto linebacker where, woohoo, a
starter returns. High three star sophomore Salamo Fios is back to build upon
his freshmen year in which he had the second most tackles of the LBs and 5.5
TFLs and 3 sacks. Around Fiso, Lauiu Moeakiola and De’Marieya Nelson each
played in at least 10 games last season but need to make big strides to
adequately replace last season’s starters. The good news looking forward is
that three of this year’s starters should be sophomores who will get great
experience, but 2014 looks to be a bit of an uphill climb. The Secondary
returns…. TWO WHOLE Starters. All kidding aside with the front seven being as
depleted as it is having two starters returning may mean the difference between
a secondary that wets the bed and one that makes an occasional stop while
working in a gaggle of redshirt freshmen. The defense is going to be a
struggle, as one would expect, when replacing eight starters. There is talent
to replace the departed but nothing game changing to make a unit even above
average. The offense should be good to very good once again but without the
ability to stop anyone they’re going to take their lumps in conference. Head Coach: Todd Graham (67-38) Since 2012
Oregon
State Beavers – (North, 7-6, 8(Y), 61.3%, 6, 74.4%) 2013
wasn’t quite what the high point of 2012 was but it was still a pretty
successful year as far as Oregon State is concerned and with the amount of
returning players I might be way to low on the Beavers in 2014. Sean Mannion is
back for his senior season in Corvallis and he’s looking to build off a very
good junior campaign. Mannion completed 66% of his pass while pushing the ball
downfield at a 7 yards per attempt clip. If Riley and staff continue to have
Mannion throw the ball around 600 times again in 2014 this offense should be
very good again in 2014. The top two returning backs are meh and a slightly
better version of meh. Junior Storm Woods averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 2013
and was not good if he didn’t have defined running lanes. Senior Terron Ward
was better at 4.6 yards per carry but neither is an explosive option to combine
with the passing game behind Mannion. The game changer for this offense could
be sophomore Chris Brown. Brown’s freshman year only saw him get 19 carries but
in that small sample he flashed a burst that none of the other returning
options showed. Even if with a bigger workload Brown doesn’t average 7.6 yards
attempt, having a back with the potential to get 5.5 to 6 yards a carry would
add a ridiculous dimension in 2014. Brandon Cooks is gone and that is a big
loss, and one that no one player will likely fill but there is some talent
returning and some players that will need to prove themselves in bigger roles
early. Richard Mullaney average 8.9 yards per target and should be the number
one option for Mannion in the upcoming season. Tight Ends Connor Hamlett (Sr)
and Caleb Smith (Jr) should provide good check down options for Mannion and
Smith could be a seam buster and a game changer with more targets. Malik
Gilmore should see time at the slot and showed flashes of being above average
there in limited snaps, but he caught 63.6% of his targets and did a
respectable job of getting some YAC out of the slot. There isn’t a great option
to replace Cooks at the Z but if Victor Bolden can improve from his freshman
year and reel in more of his targets he looks like the long term solution to
that problem. The defensive line is going to miss the pair of DE Scott Crichton
(19 TFLs/7.5 sacks) and DT Mana Rosa (32 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 1 sack). Not that
Rosa was great but he did a good job of hunkering down inside and was by far
the best interior player. Dylan Wynn is back for his senior season, after a 48
tackle 1 sack season, with Crichton and two other major DE contributors gone
Wynn is going to be asked to should more of the load in 2014 and needs to build
upon those base numbers from last season. DTs Bud Delva, Siale Hautau and
Brandon Bennett-Jackson, along with DEs Obum Gwacham and Jaswha James need to
be much more productive in 2014 than they were in 2013 when all saw time in the
majority of games. If the experience laden group can gel and improve the drop off
may not be too bad up front but that is a big if to build a defense on. The
linebackers are a much better story. Every backer who saw time last season is
back and 2012 starter at WLB Michael Doctor is back as well. If Doctor plays up
to his 2012 season (63.5 tackles, 11 TFLs) the all senior linebacking corps
would be a huge bright spot and in a front seven that has a lot of holes up
front. Behind those three are a group of sophomores that saw good time last
year all playing in at least 12 games but could all use another year to develop
before hitting the big time. The back four is a mixed bag, and a mix of the dichotomies
of the front seven. The two deep at safety is back and that means that Tyrequek
Zimmerman and Ryan Murphy who combined for 141 tackles, 11 TFLs and 7 passes
defensed they will be the rock the secondary is built upon. Corner is a
different story, two of the top four are gone, but Steven Nelson should be a
stud (55 tkls, 14 passes defensed) and Larry Scott should be good in a bigger
role than last season. The biggest impact both in the secondary and possibly on
the defense is RS freshman CB four star Dashon Hunt who has some people to jump
on the depth chart but is probably more talented than most he is competing
with. If Hunt and Nelson combine to make up a pair of lockdown corners and the
LBs can hide some of the front four’s deficiencies then this could be a pretty
solid unit at least against the pass. Against the run? Well that’s a scarier
proposition. Overall this could be an above average team bordering on feistily
annoying but I think the problems in the trenches could derail what is
otherwise a very rosy outlook. Head
Coach: Mike Riley (88-73) Since 2003
Utah Utes – (South, 5-7, 6(Y), 59.4%, 5, 58.6%) Kyle Whittingham succeeded Urban
Meyer at Utah and was really good in the MWC but has never been able to put
together sustained success in the Pac-12 due to inconsistencies and injuries at
QB. Tyler Wilson is back and I’m not going to give you his stats because I
think he’s good enough to make this team successful. Based on adjusted points
per game (Thanks Bill Connelly), with Wilson fully healthy Utah 36.8, opponent
24.6 (six games) with Wilson unhealthy or out, opponent 23.1 and Utah 20.1.
Wilson was the offense and that made this team tick, with Wilson cleared to play
and assuming health the Utes could be dangerous once again. Junior Bubba Poole
is back and that’s good but he only averaged 4.1 yards per carry which is
respectable but you can see why after Wilson and the pass threat were gone, the
team stalled. Poole is the only back with experience and his backups will be a
pair of RS freshmen Dre’Vian Young and Troy McCormick who are both 5’9” 170
some-odd lb backs who should provide some spell but who knows if we will get
more out of them than we got out of Poole last season. Dres Anderson (Sr) is
back to reprise a 1000 yard season, Kenneth Scott (Jr), former four star, is
back after missing 2013 and Geoffrey Norwood (Jr) is back. The problem is none
caught 60% of their targets but both Anderson and Norwood were around 8 yards
per target and should be good enough deep threats but need to become much more
consistent with their hands. On the defensive line a lot is gone but a lot is
coming back. DTs Tenny Palepoi and LT Tuipulotu are gone and with them 12.5
TLFs and 6 sacks. That wealth of output and experience will be tough to replace
but Viliseni Fauonuku (Jr), Sam Tevi (So) and Sese Ianu (Sr) all saw time last
year and Fauonuku was a force in the seven games he participated in 2013. On
the edge around them are Nate Orchard (Sr) and Hunter Dimick (So) who combined
for 57.5 tackles, 11 TFLs and 5 sacks. Dimick could be the next Utah defensive beast
after such an explosive freshman year. If the younger players can take big
strides in their games, mainly Dimick, Fauonuku and Tevi this could once again
be a great defensive front. STUD linebacker Trevor Reilly is gone and with him
78 tackles, 16.5 TFLs and 9 sacks. He will be replaced by Jacoby Hale who put
up 31 tackles, 10 TFLs and 6.5 sacks, if Hale stays healthy this year the loss
of Reilly should be mitigated. MAC LB Jason Whittingham and ROV LB Jared Norris
are back and if each can improve on their sophomore campaigns this may be one
of the best linebacker corps in the conference but it is shallow and could
crack and crumble easily. The secondary, much like the line loses a lot and brings
back a lot. FS Eric Rowe (Sr) & CBs Davion Orphey (Sr), Justin Thomas (So)
and Reginald Porter (So) are all back. Add in SS Brian Blechen who missed 2013
but had a very good 2012 this group should be able to weather the storm. The
defense will be dependent on a group of young talented players to grow after
strong freshmen and sophomore years. The team as a whole and its success is
predicated on health which is a fickle mistress but Utah has a chance to be a
top thirty team and remind us of such in 2014. Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham
(76-39) Since 2005
California
Golden Bears – (North, 1-11, 8(Y), 70.9%, 6, 64.5%) Sonny
Dykes’ first season at the helm for Cal was by all intents and purposes a
clusterfuck. Jared Goff put up a lot of pass attempts (529) and they weren’t
very affective (5.9 yards per attempt). Goff is talented and was thrown into a
situation where he was going to battling uphill but he needs to be much better
in his sophomore campaign and I think he and Dykes can get there. Sharing the
backfield with Goff is fellow sophomore Khalfani Muhammad, who despite Dykes’
air raid tendencies needs to get so much more than 75 carries in 2014. At 6
yards per carry he outperformed the passing game in 2013 and should be a much
bigger part of the offense in 2014. Daniel Lasco was good last season too, at
4.7 he wasn’t nearly as explosive as Muhammad but in this system that’s plenty
good enough to be useful. With four star Tre Watson coming in as well this
could be a very potent running game to go with a historically potent and
efficient Dykes passing game. The top three receivers from last season are back
and are young (2 Jrs, 1 So). Treggs and Harper should reprise their 100+ target
seasons New starting Y receiver Darius Powe should get more targets with
Richard Rodgers and Kenny Lawler should be able to build off a 65 target
season. Overall this offense is young talented and in a system that should put
a lot of that talent in space. The defense is… well… another story all
together. On the line who plays DT? Former fours star junior Mustafa Jalil
missed all of last year, and the rest of the two deep at that position is a
bunch of players who saw no playing time last season and don’t have great
pedigrees. DE is loaded with experience and should be good enough, and is
filled with a group of highly touted recruits that haven’t lived up to the hype
just yet. The linebackers have a lot of talent and some returning experience up
top but without help in front of them they are exposed to trying to make too
many plays. If everyone stays healthy this unit should be able to steady the
defense but they need help and I’m not sure it’s coming from up front. The
California secondary will be a case study in the value of experience and the
growth patterns of young players. Only one senior returns and the rest of the
group are juniors and sophomores so there is a lot place to grow and they can’t
get much worse so much like with LBs they should improve but may be weighed
down by the line. Nowhere to go but up should be the montra here and in a lot
of places there is a lot to be excited about, but I think this is at least a
year away from making waves in the Pac-12.
Head Coach: Sonny Dykes (23-26) Since
2013
Colorado
Buffaloes – (South, 4-8, 7(Y), 66.8%, 8, 74.2%) I
believe in Mike MacIntyre but this rebuild is going to be a slog and it starts
in making recruiting in-roads into places that have been underutilized
especially California’s talent base. 2013 was a step forward, because you know
competent coaching after horrid coaching makes a big difference. Sefo Liufau
looks to improve upon a good not great freshman year under MacIntyre and staffs
tutelage and should continue to get better but he’s going to have to do that
without Paul Richardson which is a big blow for the offense as a whole. Michael
Adkins II was the most productive back and with a squad still working towards
competency should be the back to lean on for the Buffaloes. Christian Powell
will still have a use but he averaged a yard and a half worse than Adkins and
shouldn’t really be the number one. As noted before Richardson is gone and the
supporting cast of upperclassmen need to step up or a group of RS freshmen and
freshmen will need to step up in a hurry. The receiving corps may call this a
building year because of lack of production but MacIntyre has brought in some
promising youngsters who will need some time to germinate. The front seven
returns a lot of experience and although no one stands out on the line as an
impact player they should be solid enough and are young enough to make another
jump. The star of the defense will be sophomore Addison Gillam who had 89
tackles, 9.5 TFLs and 3 sacks. Not to sound like a broken record but if four
star sophomore Deayshawn Rippy can step in and play like a four star recruit
then Gillam and Rippy should be a heck of a combo on the second level for the
next three seasons and complete a good core of players this year. The secondary
was good if not elite last year and everyone but Park Orms is back and he
should be replace by Terrel Smith who missed last season but had a good 2012.
If this group can do what it did in 2013 the defense will surprise and keep
many of the Buffs games respectable. Colorado is the doormat of the conference
but with another year of seasoning this could be a team to watch in 2015 and
beyond and MacIntyre will be a hot commodity once again. Head Coach: Mike MacIntyre
(20-29) Since 2013
2014 Predicted Standings
North: 1) Oregon 2) Stanford 3) Washington
4) Oregon State 5) Washington State 6) California
South: 1) Arizona 2) USC 3) UCLA 4) Utah 5) Arizona
State 6) Colorado
Oregon and
Stanford are the class of the conference, but much like last season the
strength of the next tier of teams is what makes the Pac-12 truly special.
Washington, Arizona, USC, UCLA and Utah should all be very good this season and
Wazzu, Arizona State and Colorado are all set up for future success. Arizona is
my surprise obviously but I really like what Rich Rod is doing there and I
think Petersen and the Huskies have an outside shot of shocking the world in
year one. All in all the Pac-12 is going to be a bunch of fun to watch and a
bane to my sleep cycle in 2014.
