2015 Ramblings Week 1 Power Rank Predictions

Alright as I promised here are my systems prediction for the week. A couple things to keep an eye on. 

1) If the "My Spd" column is positive I'm predicting a home win, and  if negative a road win

2) The FCS teams got a ranking of -22.636, which was the average of the bottom 16th of the rankings

3) Enjoy, disagree, and discuss. And believe me, I disagree every week, but am often wrong

Home	Away	H Rating	A Rating	HFA	My Spd	Date	Time
UCF	FIU	-6.216	-9.139	3.109	6.033	9/3/2015	17:00
South Carolina	North Carolina	12.684	14.329	0.000	-1.644	9/3/2015	17:00
Ball State	VMI	-9.923	-22.636	1.152	13.865	9/3/2015	18:00
Toledo	Stony Brook	1.655	-22.636	2.151	26.443	9/3/2015	18:00
Wake Forest	Elon	-7.978	-22.636	2.849	17.507	9/3/2015	18:00
Central Michigan	Oklahoma State	-13.359	12.032	1.356	-24.035	9/3/2015	18:00
Connecticut	Villanova	-17.729	-22.636	2.483	7.390	9/3/2015	18:30
Georgia Tech	Alcorn State	20.359	-22.636	3.466	46.461	9/3/2015	18:30
Vanderbilt	WKU	4.611	2.552	3.077	5.136	9/3/2015	19:00
Utah	Michigan	21.633	8.273	3.801	17.161	9/3/2015	19:30
Idaho	Ohio	-29.788	-5.357	2.256	-22.175	9/3/2015	20:00
Utah State	Southern Utah	-5.198	-22.636	2.493	19.931	9/3/2015	20:00
Minnesota	TCU	3.352	23.433	3.634	-16.447	9/3/2015	20:00
Tulane	Duke	-7.469	5.887	1.964	-11.393	9/3/2015	20:30
Arizona	UTSA	22.640	-31.441	3.489	57.569	9/3/2015	21:00
Nevada	UC Davis	-1.858	-22.636	2.503	23.281	9/3/2015	21:00
San Jose State	New Hampshire	-10.542	-22.636	1.282	13.376	9/3/2015	21:00
Fresno State	Abilene Christian	-8.111	-22.636	2.988	17.513	9/3/2015	21:00
Hawaii	Colorado	-9.536	2.206	2.044	-9.698	9/4/2015	0:00
Georgia State	Charlotte	-19.301	-4.062	1.183	-14.055	9/4/2015	14:30
Army	Fordham	-29.483	-22.636	3.056	-3.791	9/4/2015	18:00
Syracuse	Rhode Island	-8.123	-22.636	2.983	17.495	9/4/2015	18:00
Western Michigan	Michigan State	-1.216	23.579	1.437	-23.359	9/4/2015	18:00
SMU	Baylor	-12.545	23.895	1.933	-34.507	9/4/2015	18:00
Oregon State	Weber State	3.691	-22.636	3.453	29.780	9/4/2015	19:00
Illinois	Kent State	5.827	-14.158	2.845	22.829	9/4/2015	20:00
Boise State	Washington	22.251	5.285	3.144	20.110	9/4/2015	21:15
Georgia	ULM	24.710	-18.681	5.161	48.551	9/5/2015	11:00
Mississippi	Tennessee-Martin	27.247	-22.636	4.171	54.054	9/5/2015	11:00
Iowa	Illinois State	1.575	-22.636	4.305	28.515	9/5/2015	11:00
Maryland	Richmond	-2.644	-22.636	3.202	23.193	9/5/2015	11:00
Rutgers	Norfolk State	6.599	-22.636	3.678	32.913	9/5/2015	11:00
Kansas	South Dakota St	-16.667	-22.636	2.636	8.605	9/5/2015	11:00
Navy	Colgate	-0.670	-22.636	3.316	25.282	9/5/2015	11:00
Northwestern	Stanford	3.893	15.286	2.999	-8.394	9/5/2015	11:00
Clemson	Wofford	13.797	-22.636	5.096	41.529	9/5/2015	11:30
Pittsburgh	Youngstown State	4.188	-22.636	2.814	29.638	9/5/2015	12:00
Boston College	Maine	-7.518	-22.636	2.739	17.857	9/5/2015	12:00
Washington State	Portland State	3.639	-22.636	3.062	29.337	9/5/2015	13:00
Eastern Michigan	Old Dominion	-25.758	-16.043	0.709	-9.006	9/5/2015	14:00
Tulsa	FAU	-12.604	-19.459	1.689	8.543	9/5/2015	14:30
Arkansas	UTEP	17.531	-16.761	4.091	38.383	9/5/2015	14:30
Texas Tech	Sam Houston State	6.868	-22.636	4.018	33.522	9/5/2015	14:30
Rice	Wagner	-5.878	-22.636	1.235	17.993	9/5/2015	14:30
Air Force	Morgan State	-2.130	-22.636	2.252	22.757	9/5/2015	14:30
Buffalo	Albany	-17.780	-22.636	2.052	6.907	9/5/2015	14:30
Miami (OH)	Presbyterian	-22.029	-22.636	1.767	2.374	9/5/2015	14:30
Appalachian State	Howard	2.421	-22.636	3.094	28.150	9/5/2015	14:30
Auburn	Louisville	13.212	0.561	0.000	12.652	9/5/2015	14:30
Temple	Penn State	3.802	2.802	1.347	2.347	9/5/2015	14:30
UCLA	Virginia	35.626	3.661	4.101	36.066	9/5/2015	14:30
Nebraska	BYU	7.237	6.110	5.205	6.332	9/5/2015	14:30
Missouri	SE Missouri St	28.984	-22.636	4.119	55.739	9/5/2015	15:00
Indiana	Southern Illinois	-1.149	-22.636	3.127	24.614	9/5/2015	15:00
Colorado State	Savannah State	-2.111	-22.636	2.121	22.646	9/5/2015	15:00
Wyoming	North Dakota	-18.831	-22.636	1.951	5.757	9/5/2015	15:00
Tennessee	Bowling Green	22.484	1.469	0.000	21.015	9/5/2015	15:00
California	Grambling State	18.078	-22.636	3.237	43.950	9/5/2015	16:00
NC State	Troy	7.314	-25.141	3.822	36.277	9/5/2015	17:00
East Carolina	Towson	-2.283	-22.636	3.426	23.780	9/5/2015	17:00
South Alabama	Gardner-Webb	-21.154	-22.636	1.211	2.693	9/5/2015	17:00
Miami (FL)	Bethune-Cookman	-1.739	-22.636	3.152	24.050	9/5/2015	17:00
Oklahoma	Akron	6.294	-20.107	5.018	31.418	9/5/2015	18:00
Kentucky	Louisiana	12.065	-8.704	3.674	24.442	9/5/2015	18:00
Louisiana Tech	Southern	-3.315	-22.636	1.982	21.303	9/5/2015	18:00
Middle Tennessee	Jackson State	-11.447	-22.636	1.632	12.821	9/5/2015	18:00
Memphis	Missouri State	5.141	-22.636	1.950	29.727	9/5/2015	18:00
New Mexico	Mississippi Valley St.	-12.221	-22.636	1.797	12.212	9/5/2015	18:00
USF	Florida A&M	-7.249	-22.636	2.212	17.599	9/5/2015	18:00
Cincinnati	Alabama A&M	1.760	-22.636	2.810	27.206	9/5/2015	18:00
Texas A&M	Arizona State	21.770	29.569	0.000	-7.799	9/5/2015	18:00
Kansas State	South Dakota	10.757	-22.636	4.100	37.493	9/5/2015	18:10
Northern Illinois	UNLV	0.872	-20.374	1.749	22.996	9/5/2015	18:30
Florida	New Mexico State	9.642	-19.764	4.918	34.325	9/5/2015	18:30
West Virginia	Georgia Southern	8.264	-4.574	3.832	16.670	9/5/2015	18:30
LSU	McNeese State	23.157	-22.636	5.287	51.079	9/5/2015	18:30
Notre Dame	Texas	28.672	2.249	4.800	31.223	9/5/2015	18:30
Florida State	Texas State	21.016	-10.073	4.668	35.757	9/5/2015	19:00
Oregon	E. Washington	33.885	-22.636	4.276	60.797	9/5/2015	19:00
Iowa State	Northern Iowa	-6.042	-22.636	3.903	20.498	9/5/2015	19:00
Houston	Tennessee Tech	-5.347	-22.636	2.127	19.416	9/5/2015	19:00
San Diego State	San Diego	-4.760	-22.636	1.971	19.846	9/5/2015	19:00
Alabama	Wisconsin	27.674	19.475	0.000	8.198	9/5/2015	19:00
Southern Miss	Mississippi State	-13.710	14.116	2.011	-25.815	9/5/2015	21:00
USC	Arkansas State	25.226	-9.153	4.161	38.541	9/5/2015	22:00
Marshall	Purdue	4.978	-2.138	2.268	9.384	9/6/2015	14:00
Virginia Tech	Ohio State	7.486	34.775	4.110	-23.179	9/7/2015	19:00

2015 Rambling Sports Week 1 CFB Picks

A little different style this season on the previews. Instead of previewing a bunch of dud top 25 games each week I will only be doing the top 10 automatically. After that, well, it'll just be games that peak my interest. These previews will be just my opinions, and I will add a second column with my power ranking picks.

Thursday, September 3rd, 2015

Michigan at Utah, 7:30 pm Fox Sports 1 (Utah -4.5)

#2 TCU at Minnesota, 8:00 pm ESPN (TCU -16.5)

Wooo boy!! The Big Ten had a great post-season to end last sesaon, and all that's gonna go away Thursday night. Michigan visits Utah and the MUSS. Utah is most definitely overrated and that defense seems like a tall task for a Michigan team that has the two weakest units on the field. Utah 27-13 with the second half sleeper hold. As for Minnesota, well the darling of the 2014 Big Ten season, and teh Shutdown Fullcast's (highly recommeded podcast) perenial 25th ranked team looks like the damsel tied to the train tracks. Unfortunately, Dilly man is slower than a train and Gary Patterson will twirl his mustached to a 51-13 Horned Frogs victory.

Friday, September 4th, 2015

#5 Michigan State at Western Michigan, 6:00 pm ESPNU (Michigan State -17)

#4 Baylor at SMU, 6:00 pm ESPN (Baylor -35.5)

A pair of interstate matchups, with big spreads. The Fighting Row Boats of WMU won't beat MSU but they will put up a flight and it'll be a feel good start to P.J. Fleck's last season at WMU. Michigan State wins 48-24, but the Broncos will put up a good fight. SMU, less so. Baylor gonna run house on the Mustangs to the tune of, I don't know, 68-13.

Saturday, September 5th, 2015

ULM at #9 Georgia, 11:00 am SEC Network (Georgia -35.5)

Georgia welcomes the warhawks in a morning slate that leaves a lot to be desired. Georgia is breaking in a new QB to hand off to Nick Chubb and ULM will remind you that dreams come true, and are sometimes nightmares. Georgia drives Chubb through ULM 38-17.

Louisville vs #6 Auburn (Georgia Dome), 2:30 pm CBS (Auburn -10.5)

Virginia at #13 UCLA, 2:30 pm FOX (UCLA -19.5)

Bowling Green vs #25 Tennessee (LP Field), 3:00 pm SEC Network (Tennessee -21)

A nice afternoon slate really gets the season going Louisville-Auburn in the Georgia Dome is going to be fun and informative about both teams. How will the QBs play? Will Muschamp turn that Tigers defense around? Will either of these team factor into the conference and national title conversations? All those answers, and more, start to come into focus at 2:30 pm on saturday. I think Auburn takes it, but close, 24-20. The other two games feature non-top ten teams that I'm very much intrigued by. UCLA is at the top of my pre-season power rankings and Tennessee is going to start seeing the fruits of their recruiting labors. UCLA is relying on Josh Rosen, a heady but tempermental freshman quarterback with extremely high range of outcomes. The rest of the team is talented, but will need Rosen to develope quickly in order to reach their peak. Tennessee has their hopes pinned to their QB as well in Josh Dobbs. Dobbs had a very promising second half to 2014 and if Tennessee is to make a leap under Butch Jones he is the key. Virginia doesn't have much of a chance to take down UCLA but they can derail their season if they can get in Rosen's/the staff's head. I think we see UCLA hit a few bumps, but nothing catestrophic, 48-20. As for Tennessee, well both teams can put up big plays, but the talent cap will eventually catch up to Bowling Green, 42-23. But enough about the appetizers, it's time for the meat and potatoes.

#15 Arizona State vs Texas A&M (NRG Stadium), 6:00 pm ESPN (Texas A&M -3.5)

Texas at #11 Notre Dame, 6:30 pm NBC (Notre Dame -9.5)

#20 Wisconsin vs #3 Alabama (AT&T Stadium), 7:00 pm ABC (Alabama -12)

Eastern Washington at #7 Oregon, 7:00 pm Pac-12 Network 

Arkansas State at #8 USC, 10:00 pm Pac-12 Network (USC -27)

The meat and potatoes are a trio of games, that include at least one top 15 team. Although Wisconsin-Alabama pairs two top 20 teams, it's Arizona State-Texas A&M that intrigues me. A&M comes in a 3.5 point favorite (as of 1pm 9/3) and is a darkhorse for the SEC crown. There is talent but Sumlin hasn't fielded a competent defense in his time at A&M. That should at least start to change with John Chavis in town, but how far have they come in a single off-season. Arizona State outperformed expectations in 2014, and have a loaded team returning. Graham is in position to ascend to the Pac-21 throne. I don't completely understand why Arizona State is the underdog here, but I do see a close game, 38-31. I won't spend too much time on Alabama-Wisconsin because I don't see many ways in which Wisconsin wins. I'm thinking Alabama 48-27. Similarly to Alabama is Notre Dame, a team on a slightly lower level but with a match-up to a team that just isn't on it's level. Texas' defense is elite, but Tyrone Swoopes and the offense are going to have firepower troubles and there in-lies the problems facing Charlie Strong and company. I think this game shows us the Longhorns direction and if the Fighting Irish will be playoff contenders, 20-10. USC is the last of the top ten teams to play saturday, in a matchup with what should be one of the top mid-major programs behind Boise State, but that won't be much solace for Arkansas State as they lose 38-13. Lastly, is what many of you who have read any of my work throughout any of the past college seasons will know is that I don't do FBS-FCS predictions, but the Oregon-Eastern Washington game is an interesting exception. Vernon Adams graduated from Eastern Washington a couple weeks ago, before his long awaited transfer to Oregon. Oregon, where Adams is now the starting quarterback. This one should be wrought with emotions and intrigue and a game you should at least peak in on. Oregon still wins, and probably big, 56-30. And thus ends the first Saturday of the college football season.

Monday, September 7th, 2015

#1 Ohio State at Virginia Tech, 7:00 pm ESPN

The Labor Day ESPN game is always nice background noise for my fantasy draft, and some years even an exciting game (see Boise State-Va Tech a few years back.). This year it features revenge. Last year Va Tech was the lone blemish on the Ohio State resume, and knocked around J.T. Barrett. This season Ohio State is looking to repeat, and with two NFL quality QBs, an even scarier set of skill position players, to pair with a ruthless defense. This should be fun for Ohio State, and informative for both teams. Ohio State walks away in Blacksburg 38-24. 

Well there we are a look at Week 1, I'll put up my systems break down before UNC-USC kicks off. In the meantime, let me know what you think, what you predict, and as always, how big of an idiot I am.