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Wednesday, April 26, 2017

2017 NFL Draft: Cornerbacks

This is an insanely deep cornerback draft. I have 12 players with starting grades and four more that have the top expected starter grade of 7.0. Stats here will be passes defensed (PD) which is interceptions and pass breakups combined, 40 time, 3-Cone, and short shuttle.

1)     Marshon Lattimore, R. So, Ohio State, 6’ 0” 193 lbs -Starter (7.6)
Stats – PD: 13, 40: 4.36, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a
Lattimore doesn’t have a 3-cone or shuttle time but you see all you need to know watching the way he covers and recovers down field. Legit top three player in the draft.

2)     Gareon Conley, Jr, Ohio State, 6’ 0” 195 lbs – Starter (7.5)
Stats – PD: 12, 40: 4.44, 3-Cone: 6.69, Short Shuttle: 4.18
Let’s start by addressing the fact that there are very serious allegations against Conley at the moment. We know very little at the moment so this is the last I’ll address this at this point. Conley has claim to the title of best defensive back at Ohio State last season and with Hooker and Lattimore there that is saying a lot. Conley was just as productive as Lattimore and showed flashes on tape, but Lattimore gets the edge on his ability to recover just a touch better than Conley and at the NFL level you’re gonna get beat from time to time. It’s how you recover that matters.

3)     Marlon Humphrey, R. So, Alabama, 6’ 0” 197 lbs – Starter (7.4)
Stats – PD: 7, 40: 4.41, 3-Cone: 6.75, Short Shuttle: N/a
Humphrey is a player that is very talented, but thrives in a specific role and that’s important in the evaluation. He’s a very good athlete with a little stiffness in the hips. He’s going to be very good if you put him a position where he’s working downhill back to the play as it happens instead of chasing and mirroring as the play goes along.

4)     Tre’Davious White, Sr, LSU, 5’ 11” 192 lbs – Starter (7.4)
Stats – PD: 16, 40: 4.47, 3-Cone: 6.90, Short Shuttle: 4.32
White was very good at LSU, and is the first of my consistent technicians who don’t necessarily have the testing numbers to go along with it. Lack of testing numbers aside White is going to be a starter in the league for a long time, and even if he isn’t your stud lock down corner you won’t ever have to worry about your #2.

5)     Chidobe Awuzie, Sr, Colorado, 6’ 0” 202 lbs – Starter (7.3)
Stats – PD: 13, 40: 4.43, 3-Cone: 6.81, Short Shuttle: 4.14
Awuzie and fellow CB Witherspoon were one of the better tandems in the country this past season. Witherspoon is the bigger lankier of the two, but Awuzie has the slight edge in athleticism. The biggest difference you see shows out in the 3-cone, an indicator of hip flexion, where Awuzie bested Witherspoon by a full tenth of a second. Both are going to be very good at the next level and the 8 spot difference in rank points only to the depth and logjam in the class and not to any major fault or deficiency in Witherspoon’s game or ability.

6)     Fabian Moreau, Sr, UCLA, 6’ 0” 206 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – PD: 11, 40: 4.35, 3-Cone: 6.94, Short Shuttle: 4.12
Moreau suffered a pectoral injury at the pro day but that was after he beasted at the combine, produced during his senior season at UCLA, and made a name for himself.

7)     Adoree’ Jackson, Jr, USC, 5’ 10” 186 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – PD: 16, 40: 4.42, 3-Cone: 6.63, Short Shuttle: N/a
Jackson is a great athlete, a very good corner, and potentially an even better weapon on the offensive side of the ball. I can’t say that I don’t still think about John Ross destroying him at the line of scrimmage, but all said and done he’s an athlete that just about every team would want to have on their football team.

8)     Quincy Wilson, Jr, Florida, 6’ 1” 211 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – PD: 9, 40: 4.54, 3-Cone: 6.86, Short Shuttle: 4.02
Wilson didn’t have the best 40 and that’s going to scare people, but his short shuttle was exceptional, his 3-Cone was very good, and his production and tape at Florida were excellent. At Florida he was always in the shadow of Teez Tabor, but I think the roles and shadow will be reversed at the next level as Wilson gets his time to shine.

9)     Kevin King, Sr, Washington, 6’ 3” 200 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – PD: 15, 40: 4.43, 3-Cone: 6.56, Short Shuttle: 3.89
King was the second best corner at Washington, that’s not a knock as much as a hat tip to the fact that Sidney Jones would have ranked above him without the Achilles injury looming. King is the bigger, lankier athlete of the two and had one of the best testing scores in the class. His agility times are straight fire, his production is excellent in a power five conference, but his tape shows a few flaws that allowed him to fall just a bit down the board. If he can clean up a few technique things King is going to be a name we hear on Sundays for a very, very long time.

10)  Shaquill Griffin, Sr, UCF, 6’ 0” 194 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – PD: 8, 40: 4.38, 3-Cone: 6.87, Short Shuttle: 4.14
Shaquill Griffin is a very good football player. That’s not important. What is important is his story. He ended up at UCF because no one else would give his brother, who only has one hand, a chance to prove himself. So amidst the Conley and Mixon stories, remember the Griffin brothers story along with the James Conner story when you need to see some good in this sport.

11)  Jalen Myrick, Sr, Minnesota, 5’ 10” 200 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – PD: 12, 40: 4.28, 3-Cone: 7.02, Short Shuttle: 4.15
Jalen Myrick is in a similar boat as Curtis Samuel. He absolutely destroyed the combine and nobody cared because John Ross ran a 4.22. Minnesota is an under-the-radar DB factory operating out of the B1G. Myrick is the next in that line and it’s not just on paper. He was a constant over the last couple of season for Minnesota and a defense that never got the help needed from the offense to win games. Myrick’s an undersized freak, but much like Verrett a few years back don’t sleep on him.

12)  Sojourn Shelton, Sr, Wisconsin, 5’ 9” 177 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – PD: 16, 40: 4.51, 3-Cone: 6.83, Short Shuttle: 4.02
Speaking of B1G DBs, ain’t no one talking about Sojourn Shelton. A constant at Wisconsin it was easy to forget about him on Saturdays because of how consistent he was for a number of years. He’s a smaller guy, with 4.5 speed, but he’s quick footed and will to challenge bigger receivers in the air and even if he’s just a slot corner at the next level, I’m not sure you’re going to be too worried about who they shift into the slot.

13)  Ahkello Witherspoon, Sr, Colorado, 6’ 3” 198 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – PD: 22, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: 6.93, Short Shuttle: 4.13
Covered him when I talked about Awuzie, and would just like to draw attention to Witherspoon’s passes defensed and marvel at the depth of the class.

14)  Desmond King, Sr, Iowa, 5’ 10” 201 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – PD: 10, 40: 4.54, 3-Cone: 6.67, Short Shuttle: 4.18
King has been a long topic of discussion for #DraftTwitter. He tested better than expected in the agility drills, his forty was about what we expected, and his production was good again this year. I still have questions going forward for King, but he’s an extremely useful piece to have in your defensive backfield.

15)  Damontae Kazee, Sr, San Diego State, 5’ 10” 184 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – PD: 15, 40: 4.54, 3-Cone: 7.11, Short Shuttle: 4.27
Kazee is one of the most productive corners in recent memory. What keeps him out of the starter tier is his athletic testing. I know that seems like a half-assed reason but in loaded class without an exceptional athletic trait you’re gonna get shuffled down the list. I think Kazee will be a very productive player at the next level, but physically I have more questions than answers about how his game translates.

16)  Sidney Jones, Jr, Washington, 6’ 0” 186 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – PD: 9, 40: 4.47, 3-Cone: 7.02, Short Shuttle: 4.28
Jones would have been much higher up this list if he hadn’t blown out his Achilles at Washington’s pro day. Unlike others who have injuries that will take a while to heal an Achilles injury is one that has very uncertain outcomes especially for a position where you’re relying on athleticism and change of direction which require constant force on the tendon. Hopefully Jones fulfills his potential and comes back from his injury like Jimmy Graham did this season, but the uncertainty with the injury is too high to bump him up any further.

17)  Rasul Douglas, Sr, West Virginia, 6’ 2” 209 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – PD: 16, 40: 4.59, 3-Cone: 6.97, Short Shuttle: 4.26
Douglas was extremely productive at West Virginia and had a wonderful testing numbers, but he ran just south of 4.6 in the forty and had inconsistent tape throughout his time at West Virginia. The pieces are there, but there’s work to be done at the next level for him to succeed.


Note: I have a weird set of numbers here because I wanted to keep Douglas on here because he was tied with three others and because I realized as I went to write about Kevin King I had left Sidney Jones out and even with the injury he deserved mention on this list.

2017 NFL Draft: Off Ball Linebackers

Off the ball linebacker is a position that doesn’t hold the same cache as it used to. That said, it’s still an important position and with the increasing use of TEs & RBs in the passing game you need plays that can play in space. And this is a good year for off the ball linebackers (OBLB). Stats here will be TFLs, FF(Forced Fumbes)+PD (Passes Defensed (breakups + ints)), 3-Cone, and short shuttle.

1)     Hasson Reddick, Sr, Temple, 6’ 1 1/2" 237 lbs – Starter (7.7)
Stats – TFLs: 22.5, FF+PD: 7, 3-Cone: 7.01, Short Shuttle: 4.26
Reddit could be a very good edge defender in this class, but his highest upside is in space down to down with rush opportunities sprinkled in for effect. Reddick, who came to Temple as a safety, has the athleticism to play in space and will be an asset for any defensive coordinator.

2)     Reuben Foster, Sr, Alabama, 6’ 0” 229 lbs – Starter (7.5)
Stats – TFLs: 13, FF+PD: 2, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a
Foster is a near consensus number one backer, but an altercation at his combine medical testing, rotator cuff surgery, and a diluted sample at his combine drug test, combined with zero testing data and surprisingly lackluster production in college leave me with some slight doubts that just don’t creep up on me with Reddick.

3)     Blair Brown, Sr, Ohio, 5’ 11” 238 lbs – Starter (7.3)
Stats – TFLs: 16, FF+PD: 1, 3-Cone: 6.92, Short Shuttle: 4.18
The lack of forced fumbles and passes defensed is a bit worrisome, but then I look at those agility numbers, his sack totals, and the fact that he was all over the field for Ohio and I’m no longer all that concerned.

4)     Jarrad Davis, Sr, Florida, 6’ 1” 238 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – TFLs: 6, FF+PD: 4, 3-Cone: 7.39, Short Shuttle: 4.29
Davis has climbed up draft boards during the process and outside of his 3-cone time it’s easy to see why. Davis was a stalwart in the middle of a very good Florida defense. Davis is going to be a good one for a long time in the NFL.

5)     T.J. Watt, Jr, Wisconsin, 6’ 4” 252 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – TFLs: 15.5, FF+PD: 6, 3-Cone: 6.79, Short Shuttle: 4.13
Watt could be labeled an edge, but I think he fits best at the next level as an outside linebacker in a 4-3. He’s good in space, plenty athletic, and you can use him, much like Reddick, as a situational pass rusher by move him down or blitzing him from the linebacker position.

6)     Zach Cunningham, Jr, Vanderbilt, 6’ 3” 234 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – TFLs: 16.5, FF+PD: 5, 3-Cone: 7.03, Short Shuttle: 4.29
Cunningham was a stud at Vanderbilt and was all over the field and made a ton of plays as the rock of the Commodores defense. He’s a touch undersized. Take him and enjoy your  starting middle linebacker for the next 5-10 years.

7)     Duke Riley, Sr, LSU, 6’ 0” 232 lbs – Expected Starter (6.9)
Stats – TFLs: 9, FF+PD: 2, 3-Cone: 6.89, Short Shuttle: 4.21
Riley is probably the second best linebacker at LSU, but Kendall Beckwith has injury concerns and was unable to participate in the process so he slides. Duke is a very good linebacker in his own right with athleticism to spare.

8)     Raekwon McMillan, Jr, Ohio State, 6’ 2” 240 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)
Stats – TFLs: 7, FF+PD: 6, 3-Cone: 7.15, Short Shuttle: 4.39
I may be too low on McMillan. He was always in the play at Ohio State and played well in his specific role in the Buckeyes defense. He’s not the freakiest of athletes, but McMillan will be where you need him to be play to play.

9)     Jordan Evans, Sr, Oklahoma, 6’ 2” 233 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)
Stats – TFLs: 10, FF+PD: 13, 3-Cone: 7.01, Short Shuttle: 4.18
Evans was uber-productive at Oklahoma and tested on par with  everyone above him. There’s not much else to say Evans just gets buried a little in a very deep linebacker draft.

10)  Jayon Brown, Sr, UCLA, 6’ 0” 231 – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – TFLs: 7, FF+PD: 9, 3-Cone: 7.28, Short Shuttle: 4.53
Brown killed every combine test aside from the agility drills, he’s got the power, speed, and production that translate. Brown would be higher with better test scores but he falls in the good football player category of these ranks where the good outweighs the bad in my eyes.

11)  Dylan Cole, Sr, Missouri State, 6’ 0” 220 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)
Stats – TFLs: 8, FF+PD: 9, 3-Cone: 6.82, Short Shuttle: 4.19
The first of a trio of small school prospects that sneak into the bottom of my top 15. Cole’s a smooth athlete and you see the athleticism in his change of direction in coverage and his ability to close space on the blitz. Would like to see him clean his ability when the space gets cluttered but he’s got a lot of upside for a small school guy.

12)  Austin Calitro, Sr, Villanova, 6’ 0” 245 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – TFLs: 12, FF+PD: 3, 3-Cone: 6.96, Short Shuttle: 4.31
An above average athlete, with a bowling ball body Calitro will join his teammate Tanoh in the NFL. Calitro diagnosis well, uses his hands well while rushing and looks comfortable in space. Should be a will linebacker at the next level, but will be able to kick inside in dime.

13)  Charmeachealle Moore, Sr, Kansas State, 6’ 0” 228 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – TFLs: 4, FF+PD: 2, 3-Cone: 6.89, Short Shuttle: 4.41
Moore played the weakside at Kansas State and was a solid all around middle linebacker. The biggest worry I have is the slow short shuttle shows up on film and I worry he may be a liability at times in coverage. Good technician but you’re going to need help him a bit in scheme.

14)  Kendell Beckwith, Sr, LSU, 6’ 2” 243 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats – TFLs: 6, FF+PD: 4, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a
A healthy Beckwith challenges for top 5 in this class. His lack of testing due to injury problems drop him here. That said a healthy Beckwith is a steal of a pick in this draft.

15)  Connor Harris, Sr, Lindenwood, 5’ 11” 242 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats – TFLs: 8.5, FF+PD: 3, 3-Cone: 7.13, Short Shuttle: 4.31
Much like Beckwith this pick is a bit of speculation. Harris had a very good Senior Bowl week, was very productive at Lindenwood his senior year, and for a squat linebacker had a nice combine. He’s a player I’d take a chance on day 2.

It’s a deep linebacker group and there’s more talent worth a roster spot after these 15.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

2017 NFL Draft: Defensive Line

If you’ve read any of my stuff either last daft or headed into the college season then you know that I’m completely behind splitting front 7 defenders into three groups: interior linemen, edge rushers, and off-ball linebackers. This piece is going to focus on the first two. A refresher if your new, or forgot, interior refers to players that will play nose tackle (0 or 1i technique), tackle (1-3 tech), or 3-4 end (5 tech). These players use a similar skill set to one another that isn’t completely reliant on athleticism. Although, being athletic is a plus. Edge players cover 4-3 ends (5 -9 tech) and 3-4 OLBs, in other terms pass rushers. There has been a lot of good work on pass rushers in recent years, especially Justis Mosqueda’s (@JuMosq) force players which draws a very convincing link between athleticism and pass rush success.

Interior Linemen

1)     Jonathan Allen, Sr, Alabama, 6’ 2 5/8” 286 lbs – Starter (7.5)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 26.5, 40: 5.03, 3-Cone: 7.49, Short Shuttle: 4.50, Broad Jump: 9’ 0”
Allen was a beast at Alabama but his fit at the next level is a bit up in the air. I’ve put him here because in a base front for either a 3-4 or a 4-3 team I think he plays either the 5 or the 3. Allen will probably play some edge in passing downs but I think his best fit is at the 3.

2)     Chris Wormley, Sr, 6’ 5” 298 lbs, Sr, Michigan – Starter (7.2)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 14, 40: 4.86, 3-Cone: 7.08, Short Shuttle: 4.59, Broad Jump: 9’ 2”
You can make the case that Wormley is a prototypical 4-3 end, and I wouldn’t put up too much of a fuss. I settle here because of his size and his lack of production on the outside at Michigan. His three cone is insane for his size and that suggests he’s going to be able to be a disruptive force at the next level.

3)     Jeremiah Ledbetter, Sr, Arkansas, 6’ 3 1/8” 280 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 13, 40: 4.80, 3-Cone: 7.55, Short Shuttle: 4.56, Broad Jump: 10’ 8”
Lebetter was fairly productive at Arkansas but where he excelled was in his explosion testing. With a broad of 10’ 8” and a vert of 33.5” at 280 he’s certainly explosive. His agility testing was fine, but not exceptional but in a weak class I’ll take a player who’s elite in a specific area.

4)     Malik McDowell, Jr, Michigan State, 6’ 6 1/4" 295 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 8.5, 40: 4.85, 3-Cone: 7.69, Short Shuttle: 4.53, Broad Jump: 9’ 4”
This is a ranking based on faith in talent and talent evaluators that I trust. Everyone I follow and trust for D-line evaluation loves McDowell and as soon as you turn on the Wisconsin tape it becomes immediately clear why. He’s explosive, disruptive, and plays all over the field. He was inconsistent last year on a team that fell completely off the deep end and due to an ankle injury. There are questions on McDowell for sure, but in a relatively weak class I’ll bet on talent.

5)     Montravius Adams, Sr, Auburn, 6’ 3 5/8” 304 lbs – Expected Starter (6.9)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 13, 40: 4.86, 3-Cone: 7.62, Short Shuttle: 4.89, Broad Jump: 9’ 0”
Adams was productive but inconsistent at Auburn, but he performed well at the Senior Bowl and aside from his shuttle time he did what he needed to at the combine. He’s an enigmatic player with weaknesses, but overall in this class he’s above average player.

6)     Tanoh Kpassagnon, Sr, Villanova, 6’ 7” 289 lbs – Expected Starter (6.9)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 32.5, 40: 4.83, 3-Cone: 7.46, Short Shuttle: 4.62, Broad Jump: 10’ 8”
Tanoh is another in a series of guys that are inside/outside tweeners. Tanoh is my 80% of Allen player. He has enough bend and athleticism to make a difference on the edge is spots and to be a nightmare for guards on standard downs. If you’re a predominantly 3-4 he plays the 5 and kicks to end when you’re in dime.

7)     Larry Ogunjobi, Sr, Charlotte, 6’ 2 5/8” 305 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 16.5, 40: 4.97, 3-Cone: 7.55, Short Shuttle: 4.75, Broad Jump: 9’ 8”
Ogunjobi was productive enough at Charlotte, a new comer to FBS football, where he was by far their best player. Ogunjobi is freaky for a 305 pounder with a great 3-cone and the ability to jump out of the building.

8)     Eddie Vanderdoss, Jr, UCLA, 6’ 3 1/8” 305 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 3, 40: 4.99, 3-Cone: 7.69, Short Shuttle: 4.39, Broad Jump: 9’ 3”
Eddie would be a top 5 interior lineman in this class had he been healthy and I initially had him too low in this class. Vanderdoss crushed his testing, in particular his shuttle of 4.39 is the third lowest of anyone in the class and in the 88th percentile all time. If healthy he has the chance to be an excellent player for a long time.

9)     Dalvin Tomlinson, Sr, Alabama, 6’ 2 7/8” 310 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 8.5, 40: 5.19, 3-Cone: 7.68, Short Shuttle: 4.58, Broad Jump: 9’ 2”
10)  Jaleel Johnson, Sr, Iowa, 6’ 3” 316 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 17.5, 40: 5.25, 3-Cone: 7.64, Short Shuttle: 4.62, Broad Jump: 8’ 5”
I’m going to combine Tomlinson and Johnson because they are nearly identical prospects. Johnson had the better production, although Tomlinson was in the deepest rotation of talent in the nation as a member of the Crimson Tide d-line. Johnson is a slightly worse athlete, but both he and Tomlinson will be where they need to be and are athletic enough to scare offensive coordinators.

11)  Carlos Watkins, Sr, Clemson, 6’ 3” 309 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 24, 40: 5.01, 3-Cone: 7.97, Short Shuttle: 4.88, Broad Jump: 9’ 0”
Watkins was extremely productive for a defense that returned to their second national championship game in as many years. He isn’t the most athletic player in this draft, in face he and Johnson later are the poorest athletes in my top 20, but they’re productive and solid players in a weak class and that makes them the guy the female lead ends up with at the end of a rom-com.

12)  Vincent Taylor, Jr, Oklahoma State, 6’ 2 5/8” 304 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 20, 40: 5.07, 3-Cone: 7.58, Short Shuttle: 4.72, Broad Jump: 9’ 0”
Taylor like Watkins above was very productive power 5 defensive tackle, with good athletic testing. My main qualm with Taylor is merely that he’s a big interior lineman who played against Big XII lines that were better against the pass than against the run.

13)  D.J. Jones, Sr, Ole Miss, 6’ 0 5/8” 319 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 5, 40: 5.04, 3-Cone: 7.73, Short Shuttle: 4.65, Broad Jump: 9’ 0”
Jones another in a long line of enigmas in this class that make you want to pull out your hair and never think deeply about how players transition from college to the pros. Jones was undeniably unproductive at Ole Miss and undeniably freaky athletically.

14)  Tueni Lupeamanu, Sr, Idaho, 6’ 0” 282 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 13, 40: 4.99, 3-Cone: 7.37, Short Shuttle: 4.49, Broad Jump: 9’ 1”
Lupeamanu is my personal favorite player in this group. He’s an athletic freak from Idaho. Although there was no draft breakdown, breakdowns of him, there are team highlights and I don’t know why I hadn’t heard of him. Even if he needs some time to develop more, he has all the tools to be impactful at the NFL level.

15)  Tanzel Smart, Sr, Tulane, 6’ 2 5/8” 296 lbs – Potential Starter (6.0)
Stats – Sacks+TFLs: 24, 40: 5.22, 3-Cone: 7.53, Short Shuttle: 4.57, Broad Jump: 8’ 9”
Smart is here because of a good agility times, and being the best producer left who wasn’t just an average athlete. He’s a good player and should stick in the league and that’s about it.

Edge Rushers

1)     Myles Garrett, Jr, Texas A&M, 6’ 4 4/8” 272 lbs – Starter (7.6)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 23.5, 40: 4.64, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a, Broad Jump: 10’ 7”
The hypes real, there are slight concerns, but we’ve heard the takes plays off complaint about every single highly rated defensive lineman since the dawn of fucking time. He went 4.64 on the 40, 41 inches on the vert, and 10’ 7” on the broad at 272. I mean, shit if that’s not explosiveness then… shit.
2)     Solomon Thomas, Jr, Stanford, 6’ 2 5/8” 273 lbs – Starter (7.4)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 23, 40: 4.69, 3-Cone: 6.95, Short Shuttle: 4.28, Broad Jump: 10’ 6”
Thomas is a bit of a devisive player in this year’s draft. I’m clearly on team Thomas and think the best thing for him will be the move to Edge instead of being stuck at the 3 where he often got abused in the power game. Thomas is an undeniable athlete, who showed it on the field, and that’s worth the type of investment it will take to acquire him.

3)     Jordan Willis, Sr, Kansas State, 6’ 3 3/4” 255 lbs – Starter (7.3)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 29, 40: 4.53, 3-Cone: 6.85, Short Shuttle: 4.28, Broad Jump: 10’ 5”
Willis blew up the combine and to be honest I hadn’t heard much about him before that. That being said he had the best combine behind the two ahead of him, and produced plenty in the pass heavy Big XII to warrant this ranking.
4)     Carl Lawson, Jr, Auburn, 6’ 1 3/4” 261 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 22.5, 40: 4.67, 3-Cone: 7.46, Short Shuttle: 4.19, Broad Jump: 9’ 6”
The oft-injured Lawson flashed consistently at Auburn when he was on the field. The three cone is worrisome, but his shuttle and 10-yard split (1.61) provide plenty of twitch for me.

5)     Derek Rivers, Sr, Youngstown State, 6’ 3 5/8” 248 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 44.5, 40: 4.61, 3-Cone: 6.94, Sh. Shuttle: 4.40, Broad Jump: 10’ 7”
Rivers dominated at Youngstown State under Bo Pelini and broke the sacks record at Youngstown State which is impressive. He also showed out at the Senior Bowl against top level competition and once again at the combine where he tested like an elite athlete. He’s small school but he’s worth it.

6)     Derek Barnett, Jr, Tennessee, 6’ 3” 259 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 32, 40: 4.88, 3-Cone: 6.96, Short Shuttle: 4.44, Broad Jump: 9’ 9”
Barnett was a beast in the SEC, but that doesn’t necessarily translate. His athletic testing was nothing to write home about but it was fine. The biggest question is whether he’ll be able to produce at the NFL where it’s much more difficult to anticipate and jump the snap. In a class with a bunch of questions I’m willing to bank on elite college production but there are worries here that keep Barnett from being ranked in the starter tier.

7)     Ejuan Price, Sr, Pittsburgh, 5’ 11 3/8” 241 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 36, 40: 4.75, 3-Cone: 6.98, Short Shuttle: 4.34, Broad Jump: 10’ 2”
Price is uber-productive, undersized, and injury prone. And I’d draft him on day 2 every time.

8)     Charles Harris, Jr, Missouri, 6’ 2 3/4” 253 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 31, 40: 4.82, 3-Cone: 7.35, Short Shuttle: 4.40, Broad Jump: 9’ 10”
If Charles is taking over the mantle from previous stud Missouri pass rushers then I am too low. If his athletic profile keeps him as a good not superlative pass rusher then I’m about right for his placement in this class.

9)     Takkarist McKinley, Sr, UCLA, 6’ 2” 250 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 28, 40: 4.59, 3-Cone: 7.48, Short Shuttle: 4.62, Broad Jump: 10’ 2”
I think Takk got lost on his 3-Cone because I don’t understand what happened on either agility test. It’s very worrying but I loved what I saw from him at UCLA and his production was amongst the best in the class.

10)  Tarell Basham, Sr, Ohio, 6’ 3 3/4" 269 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 25.5, 40: 4.70, 3-Cone: 7.27, Sh. Shuttle: 4.35, Broad Jump: 9’ 11”
Basham could be a bright spot in this year’s class. He’s a MAC product, but his athleticism + his motor means I wouldn’t bet against him making an impact at the NFL level.

11)  Daeshon Hall, Sr, Texas A&M, 6’ 5 1/4" 266 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 17.5, 40: 4.76, 3-Cone: 7.03, Sh. Shuttle: 4.38, Broad Jump: 10’ 3”
Hall got lost on the opposite side of the line from Garrett at times, but he’s a very good prospect in his own right. Hall flashes even when you’re watching Garrett and he caught eyes again when he stomped the agility drills at the timeline. Hall isgoing to need some refinement in his pass rush game but he won’t be a liability in any area.

12)  Trey Hendrickson, Sr, FAU, 6’ 4” 266 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 24.5, 40: 4.65, 3-Cone: 7.03, Sh. Shuttle: 4.20, Broad Jump: 10’ 2”
13)  Tim Williams, Sr, Alabama, 6’ 2 7/8” 244 lbs – Potential Starter (6.2)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 25, 40: 4.68, 3-Cone: 7.36, Short Shuttle: 4.57, Broad Jump: 10’ 4”
I’m combining these two because they present an interesting dichotomy. Hendrickson has all the athleticism in the world but didn’t show up in the box score or on film as much as you’d like a man with his profile to show up. Williams on the other hand was one of the most disappointing prospect in Indy with a three cone and shuttle that are horror movie scary. Williams on film is one of the most disruptive linemen in the draft, despite playing limited time in Alabama’s d-line rotation he exceeded Hendrickson’s production.

14)  Tyus Bowser, Sr, Houston, 6’ 3” 247 lbs – Potential Starter (6.0)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 20.5, 40: 4.65, 3-Cone: 6.75, Sh. Shuttle: 4.34, Broad Jump: 10’ 7”
Bowser played as an off the ball linebacker at Houston and in my opinion out of position. His agility drills are elite, his broad shows power and the time he’s allowed to edge rush at Houston show a promising prospect played out of position.

15)  DeMarcus Walker, Sr, Florida State, 6’ 4” 280 lbs – Potential Starter (5.9)
Stats – Sack+TFL: 36.5, 40: 4.88, 3-Cone: 7.91, Short Shuttle: 4.71, Broad Jump: 9’ 7”
Walker has the highest production grade of this class for me. He also has the 2nd worst athleticism score behind Williams. Unlike Williams, however, Walker’s tape confirms what we see in the testing. I’ll take a chance on the production, but I don’t see the ability to bend that you see even with a Barnett who tested poorly as well.


There are things to like in both classes and the Edge players are deeper than their interior counterparts, but overall it’s a weak class for both positions. Inside you’re going to have to bank on athleticism, and on the outside the players with production are your safest options. These positions will be the most interesting for me over the three days, but much more will happen on days two & three.

Monday, April 24, 2017

2017 NFL Draft: Offensive Linemen

Offensive (side of the ball, not upsetting content) hog mollie time. And, it’s pretty rough. I think you’re going to have to take flyers on body and athleticism types and even then you’re probably looking spot starters and players that can play multiple positions. Only three stats in this one: 3-cone, short shuttle, and broad jump. The two agility drills are the most important for offensive linemen, and the broad jump talks to hip explosion.

Tackles

1)     Garrett Bolles, Jr, Utah, 6’ 5” 297 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.29, Short Shuttle: 4.55, Broad Jump: 9’ 7”
Garrett Bolles gives you reason to be concerned with limited experience at Utah, but he’s a complete athlete, got better as the year went on, and has that length that you’d want from bookend tackle at the NFL level.

2)     Forrest Lamp, Sr, WKU, 6’ 4” 309 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.55, Short Shuttle: 4.62, Broad Jump: 9’ 3”
Lamp is the most pro ready of the offensive linemen, but he may be more fit to move inside and dominate there for a decade. If I were running a team I’d try him at tackle first, because A) he’s athletic enough, and B) he handled the Alabama edge players in there match-up and for that I think it’s worth the try at tackle (as you’ll see lower he’s my top rated guard).

3)     Taylor Moton, Sr, Western Michigan, 6’ 5” 319 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.73, Short Shuttle: 4.58, Broad Jump: 9’ 1”
Moton was really good at Western Michigan and was the best lineman in the Cotton Bowl over both Ramczyk and his line mate who looks to be a 1st round pick next season. Moton is just solid all around and in an  offensive line draft that’s pretty shallow a player as solid as Moton with his athletic numbers is a valuable asset to have on your team.

4)     Ryan Ramczyk, Jr, Wisconsin, 6’ 6” 310 lbs – Expected Starter (6.9)
Stats – 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a, Broad Jump: N/a
Ramczyk would be battling Bolles for top tackle in the draft if he hadn’t been held out of working out this offseason with a hip injury. A for UW-Steven Point Pointer Ramczyk is a great story but injury concerns will almost certainly hold him down a bit.

5) Connor McDermott, Sr, UCLA, 6’ 8” 307 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.52, Short Shuttle: 4.58, Broad Jump: 8’ 9”
McDermott impressed against Garrett early in the season and has the power and athleticism to be a starting tackle in the league. A long lanky guy he’ll need to bulk up at the next level but he has all the tools to be a good starter at the next level.

6) Cam Robinson, Jr, Alabama, 6’ 6” 322 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.81, Short Shuttle: 4.82, Broad Jump: 8’ 10”
Robinson has the recruiting pedigree and started all three years at Alabama at left tackle. He’s had some struggles at times and his testing numbers leave a bit to be desired. All that being said, he’s the tackle that worries me most that I’ve misgraded him because the talent is there and he wouldn’t be the first to finally put it all together in the league.

7) Corey Levin, Sr, UT Chattanooga, 6’ 4” 307 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.55, Short Shuttle: 4.73, Broad Jump: 8’ 10”
A small school prospect Levin is an athletic specimen who’s biggest concern is ability to translate his skills to the best competition in the world every down in the NFL.

8) William Holden, Sr, Vanderbilt, 6’ 7” 311 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.71, Short Shuttle: 4.72, Broad Jump: 9’ 3”
Holden is flying under-the-radar in the process leading up to the draft but the SEC product doesn’t leave much to be desired. He checks the agility boxes and had the third highest broad jump of the group. Holden is going to go day two or very early day three and be a nice addition to the depth of someone’s offensive line.

9) Daniel Brunskill, Sr, San Diego State, 6’ 5” 273 lbs – Potential Starter (5.9)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.64, Short Shuttle: 4.78, Broad Jump: 9’1”
Brunskill and guard SIragusa lead the way for Donnel Pumphrey to break a lot of records at San Diego State. Brunskill, undersized for the position, is a former tight end who moved to tackle recently. He’s a bit of a project but the history of this transition before you get drafted is pretty good. Brunskill checks almost every both athletically and should be an intriguing piece for o-line coaches league-wide.

10) Aviante Collins, Sr, TCU, 6’ 4” 295 lbs – Potential Starter (5.8)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.29, Short Shuttle: 4.55, Broad Jump: 9’ 7”
Aviante Collins is the guy who boomed athletically at the draft with a 4.81 40 yard dash at 295 pounds. Collins has inconsistencies on tape at TCU, but I think his athletic profile is well worth a look in a tackle class that doesn’t have the highest ceiling.

Guards

1)     Forrest Lamp, Sr, WKU, 6’ 4” 309 lbs – Starter (7.5)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.55, Short Shuttle: 4.62, Broad Jump: 9’ 3”
Talked about Lamp above, rating him a bit higher here because arm length isn’t a concern at guard and he’s plenty powerful for the position.

2)     Nico Siragusa, Sr, San Diego State, 6’ 4” 319 lbs – Starter (7.2)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.71, Short Shuttle: 4.56, Broad Jump 9’ 2”
Siragusa a road grader who is going to start at guard and improve a run game year one. Add that to agility times that suggest he’ll be fine on the move when pulling and you have a very good day two pick to help your offensive line.

3)     Dan Feeney, Sr, Indiana, 6’ 4” 305 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.52, Short Shuttle: 4.68, Broad Jump: 8’ 5”
Feeney is the next in a line of pretty good line prospects to come out of Indiana and he has the chance to be a very good internal offensive lineman in the NFL. He’s good on the move, his broad jump concerns me a bit, but overall his profile suggest he’ll be just fine at the next level.
4)     Taylor Moton, Sr, Western Michigan, 6’ 5” 319 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.73, Short Shuttle: 4.58, Broad Jump: 9’ 1”
Moton grades out evenly between guard and tackle. Talked about him above.

5)     Dion Dawkins, Sr, Temple, 6’ 4” 314 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.30, Short Shuttle: 4.78, Broad Jump: 8’ 8”
Dawkins played tackle at Temple, but I think his best chance for success is to move inside at the next level. Dawkins blocks through the whistle and has a bit of dog to his game. He needs to clean up some footwork issues, but he’s got the traits to be a good guard at the next level.

6)     Geoff Gray, Sr, Manitoba, 6’ 6” 315 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.70, Short Shuttle: 4.69, Broad Jump: 9’ 6”
Gray is good, but the only thing I want to tell you about him is that he’s going to be a top five pick in the CFL draft.

7)     Corey Levin, Sr, UT Chattanooga, 6’ 4” 307 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.55, Short Shuttle: 4.73, Broad Jump: 8’ 10”
Spoke about Levin above.

8)     Benny McGowan, Sr, Michigan State, 6’ 3” 324 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.70, Short Shuttle: 4.60, Broad Jump: 8’ 3”
McGowan’s agility scores are some of the best of the bunch, but the broad jump is scary low for the former spartan.

9)     Corey Whitaker, Sr, Nebraska, 6’ 4” 298 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.49, Short Shuttle: 4.62, Broad Jump: 8’ 9”
Whitaker started only one year at Nebraska, but he played well in his time out there and has an athletic profile to drool over. He’s my athletic flyer from a power 5 school.

10)  Andrew Wylie, Sr, Eastern Michigan, 6’ 5” 304 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.46, Short Shuttle: 4.76, Broad Jump: 9’ 7”
Wylie is my small school freak athlete inside. His worst time was his shuttle, but even that was reasonably above average.

Centers

1)     Chase Roullier, Sr, Wyoming, 6’ 4’ 312 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.60, Short Shuttle: 4.47, Broad Jump: 8’ 7”
Roullier gets my top spot over Efflein is because of his athletic profile. Outside of the broad jump, Roullier is significantly better than Efflein and his tape is pretty good. You’ll notice I pretty good because no one in this class blows me away.

2)     Pat Efflein, Sr, Ohio State, 6’ 3” 303 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.94, Short Shuttle: 4.71, Broad Jump: 8’ 3”
Efflein falls because of his testing. I still think he’s going to be solid for a long time, but I have concerns about his feet and the fact that he’s on the short side for that threshold.

3)     Kyle Fuller, Sr, Baylor, 6’ 5” 307 lbs – Potential Starter (6.0)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.71, Short Shuttle: 4.84, Broad Jump: 8’ 0”
Fuller is 80% of Efflein and that should tell you how fast this draft falls off at center. He plays with power pretty well downhill, but needs to anchor much better in the pass game. He gets pushed back into his QBs lap too often. Add that to meh athleticism, you get a player that should be rosterable, but needs to improve at the next level to be a solid contributor.

4)     Ethan Pocic, Sr, LSU, 6’ 6” 310 lbs – Potential Starter (5.9)
Stats – 3-Cone: 7.89, Short Shuttle: 4.81, Broad Jump: 8’ 11”
Pocic started 27 games at starter for LSU and was a good college lineman, but there are flaws here that worry me. Watching the Alabama game and he’s playing in his own backfield most of the game, gets lost in space too often, and allows the defender to disengage and make a play too often. Match this up with his agility scores and I have concern about his efficacy in the NFL.

5)     J.J. Dielman, Sr, Utah, 6’ 5” 309 lbs – Potential Starter (5.7)
Stats – 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a, Broad Jump: N/a
Loved his film, and the injuries are a concern, but in a weak class I’ll put the guy I liked when I watched him in my top 5 at the position.


Not the deepest year for linemen but there are some intriguing options and a few players I think will be important pieces for many years. We’ll look at their adversaries in my next piece.

Sunday, April 23, 2017

2017 NFL Draft: Tight Ends

This may be a generational set of talents at the tight end position. There are 3-5 players who are real difference makes depending on how you view them and a half dozen more that should be solid contributors. This is the best TE draft I’ve ever seen, and although that doesn’t cover a lot of drafts, I’d be willing to bet this one won’t be topped for quite some time if ever.

1)     O.J. Howard, Sr, Alabama, 6’ 6” 251 lbs – Starter (7.6)
Stats – Yds/Tar: 10.40, Catch Rate: 77.59%, 3-cone: 6.85, Short Shuttle: 4.16, Broad Jump: 10’ 1”
Two things you need to know about Howard 1) He came back to Alabama because they said he’d be featured, he wasn’t, he didn’t raise a fuss. 2) He’s everything you want in a TE and a freak athlete to boot. That was like four things, but yeah Howard is for real.

2)     Evan Engram, Sr, Mississippi, 6’ 3” 234 lbs – Starter (7.3)
Stats – Yds/Tar: 9.96, Catch Rate: 69.89%, 3-cone: 6.92, Short Shuttle: 4.23, Broad Jump: 10’ 5”
Engram isn’t a complete tight end and will need work to on that but he’s an immediate threat in the passing game and at worst gives you size in the slot and/or a good matchup against a LB as your H-back.

3)     David Njoku, R.So, Miami (FL), 6’ 4” 245 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – Yds/Tar: 9.69, Catch Rate: 59.72%, 3-cone: 6.97, Short Shuttle: 4.34, Broad Jump: 11’ 1”
Njoku has the ability to challenge Howard as the best and most complete tight end in this class but he’s a bit more of a project than the two before him. Njoku is explosive, a willing blocker, and was productive in what at times was a dysfunctional offense at Miami.

4)     Bucky Hodges, Jr, Virginia Tech, 6’ 6” 257 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – Yds/Tar: 8.53 Catch Rate: 59.26%, 3-cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: 4.45, Broad Jump: 11’ 2”
Hodges is much more in that Engram mold than in that Njoku/Howard mode. He’s explosive and will function as much as a receiver as he is a TE and that has its use in a continually more pass-heavy league.

5)     Gerald Everett, Sr, South Alabama, 6’ 3” 239 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)
Stats – Yds/Tar: 9.82, Catch Rate: 67.12%, 3-cone: 6.99, Short Shuttle: 4.33, Broad Jump: 10’ 6”
Everett is a small school prospect who was used as a receiver at South Alabama. He started gaining steam towards the end of the season and it’s easy to see why. If you’re looking for 80% of Engram a couple rounds later this is your guy. Everett tested out within a .1 of a second of Engram and the similarities matchup in production & usage as well.

6)     Jordan Leggett, Sr, Clemson, 6’ 5” 258 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – Yds/Tar: 11.25, Catch Rate: 68.42%, 3-cone: 7.12, Short Shuttle: 4.33, Broad Jump: 9’ 11”
Jordan Leggett was a beast for Clemson during the title runs the last couple of seasons and I originally undervalued what he  brings to the table. What he brings, much Everett before him is 80% of Howard/Njoku a couple rounds later. He’s a complete T, who was ultra-productive and played in-line and all that adds up to a player that is going to very useful at the next level and a very nice weapon for a QB.

7)     George Kittle, Sr, Iowa, 6’ 4” 247 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – Yds/Tar: 9.13, Catch Rate: 57.50%, 3-cone: 7.00, Short Shuttle: N/a, Broad Jump: 11’ 0”
George Kittle is a bit of an enigma to me he’s athletic as all hell with great hip explosion, but he’s hit or miss at Iowa. Now I’m willing to blame Beathard for a lot of that, as well as a conservative offense, but there is still something nagging at the back of my mind.

8)     Michael Roberts, Sr, Toledo, 6’ 4” 270 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – Yar/Tar: 8.08, Catch Rate: 68.18%, 3-cone: 7.05, Short Shuttle: 4.42, Broad Jump: 9’ 2”
All Michael Roberts does is catch touchdowns (16 in 2016). And although he’s not overly explosive in the hips he’s agile enough in space to be a beast. And if you’re worried he was all red zone in the MAC, his yards per target should calm those fears.

9)     Jonnu Smith, Sr, FIU, 6’ 3” 248 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – Yds/Tar: 7.55, Catch Rate: 62.69%, 3-cone: 7.43, Short Shuttle: 4.18, Broad Jump: 10’ 7”
Jonnu is my sleeper tight end here, the three cone is slightly concerning, but at 6’3” and 248 he’s a bowling ball of a tight end. Jonnu had trouble with production at FIU, but in a dysfunctional situation ever since his freshman year I’m expecting some stability to help iron out some kinks in his game.

10)  Jake Butt, Sr, Michigan, 6’ 5” 246 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats – Yar/Tar: 8.21, Catch Rate: 69.12%, 3-cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a, Broad Jump: N/a
His last name Butt, I’m here for all those jokes, he’s a very solid player, who slipped because he got injured this season. He’ll be a very useful player for a long time for someone. Then who’ll be the Butt of our jokes.


There are a number of other players who have the chance to be long-term contributors at the position. We’re looking at the bulk of the torch bearers at the position for the next decade.