2018 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks

Our first positional of draft week and we start with the Quarterbacks. This class is good, with Rosen getting my first starter grade since Winston and three guys in the Watson-Mahomes range. I need to spend some time before next draft figuring out how I rank QBs within the Starter, expected starter, probably starter, backup, UDFA ranges. It’s the only position where I’m hesitant to put a player in the starter tier. That is a discussion for another day.

Player	Tm	Ht	Wt	ATT	AY/A	Cmp%	Sk%	Role	Gr
Josh Rosen	UCLA	76	226	452	8.42	62.61%	5.40%	ES	7.1
Baker Mayfield	OKLA	73	215	404	12.84	70.54%	6.00%	ES	6.6
Lamar Jackson	LOU	74	216	430	8.68	59.07%	6.30%	ES	6.6
Sam Darnold	USC	75	221	480	8.46	63.13%	5.70%	ES	6.6
Mason Rudolph	OkSt	77	235	489	10.66	65.03%	4.50%	ES	6.1
Josh Allen	WYO	77	237	270	6.85	56.30%	7.50%	PS	5.8
Mike White	WKU	77	224	560	7.71	65.71%	7.40%	PS	5.7
Luke Falk	WAZZ	76	215	534	6.72	66.85%	6.80%	PS	5.7
Logan Woodside	TOL	73	210	411	9.88	64.23%	5.10%	PS	5.6
John Wolford	WAKE	72	205	374	9.31	63.90%	3.90%	PS	5.5

My top ten quarterbacks and if you want my Josh Allen take I’ll direct you to my production primer (Here). He has insane upside, he’s nowhere near reaching it at the moment. Rosen is the most pro-ready, but he took a beating at UCLA and his most likely downfall is due to his health concerns. I’ve been unable to separate Mayfield, Jackson, and Darnold in my mind. Darnold and Jackson are upside plays with specific talents. Darnold is a great thrower on the move, but his footwork in the pocket gets lazy, and he makes some curious decisions. Jackson manipulates a pocket well and has improved each of the last two seasons as a passer, while still providing a spark with his legs. Mayfield shows an array of passes, has swagger out the ass, and has made just about every throw you could conceive. The big questions on him are size, and what the impact of losing Lincoln Riley’s scheme be on his production. Rudolph was the second most productive player in my rankings, shows good anticipation, and is calm and cool in the pocket. I have some questions about his arm strength and his adaptation outside of Mike Gundy’s offense, but I like where he’s building from at the next level. As we move past Allen I’ll leave my comments to this… The upside is there, hopefully he makes us all eat our words. Mike White showed up big at the Senior Bowl and had a very successful career at WKU, he takes more chances than he probably should and will need to be more consistent at the next level, but all it takes is a watch of the 2016 game against Bama to see the upside. Luke Falk feels like the quintessential 8^th year senior. It seems like he’s been at Wazzou since the turn of the decade, so it’ll be exciting to see him in a new environment. Wherever that turns out to be will need to have an established line to help Falk who’s had trouble with pressure in his face at the college level. Falk can make just about any throw and has had a greater level of autonomy than many people assume in a Mike Leach offense. Woodside is a solid group of 5 quarterback with upside and healthy production from the MAC. He doesn’t wow, but he’ll give you fringe starter upside when called upon with room to grow. Rounding out my top 10 is John Wolford, who’s a low upside, high floor, ACC quarterback who helped the Deacons stabilize.

All in all, it’s a good QB class, and there’s untapped potential to be found farther down the rankings. It will be interesting to see if we get some compare contrasts with players going to places with established starters for the start/sit debate of QB development. As always there will be more this week, and as amateur scouts there is a good amount of info that we aren’t privy to.

2108 NFL Draft: My Draft Team

Before we get into a crazy week of writing let’s have a little bit more fun and talk about a project introduced to me by @JoeGoodberry. Goodberry is a writer working for The Atlantic who covers the Bengals and the draft. A few years back he mentioned a fun little thing he had been doing where he drafted his own team during the NFL Draft. You spend the first few drafts picking at both 16 & 17 in each round to build up a roster, after year four you have to figure who you’d keep and who you wouldn’t and upkeep the roster. These are the first two drafts I’ve done. There’s some good (Jack & Thomas), some bad (like the entire second half of my 2016 draft), and the uncertain (half of last year, and the half dozen guys from 2016 who have been injured either of the last two seasons).

2016		G/GS	Stats	AV
Round 1 Pick 16	Myles Jack OBLB, UCLA	32/26	97 Tkls, 2.5 Sks, 5 PDs	14
Round 1 Pick 17	William Jackson III CB, Houston	15/5	22 Tkls, 1 Int, 13 PDs	3
Round 2 Pick 16	Andrew Billings Int, Baylor	15/7	11 Tkls	3
Round 2 Pick 17	Michael Thomas WR, Ohio State	31/26	270 Tgts, 196 Rec, 2382 yds, 14 TDs	23
Round 3 Pick 16	Nick Vigil OBLB, Utah State	27/11	72.5 Tkls, 1 Sk, 1 Int, 6 PDs	6
Round 3 Pick 17	Kalan Reed CB, Southern Miss	1/0	1 Tkl, 1 PD	0
Round 4 Pick 16	Jeremy Cash SS, Duke	9/0	-	0
Round 4 Pick 17	Kenneth Dixon RB, Louisiana Tech	12/0	88 Car, 382 Ru. Yds, 2 TDs 30 Rec, 162 Yds, 1TD	3
Round 5 Pick 16	Donovan Clark OG, Michigan State	INJ	-	-
Round 5 Pick 17	Vernon Adams Jr QB, Oregon	-	-	-
Round 6 Pick 16	Matt Skura OG, Duke	12/12	-	6
Round 6 Pick 17	Mike Thomas WR, Southern Miss	23/1	16 Tgt, 8 Rec, 130 Yds	1
Round 7 Pick 16	Jason Fainaka Edge, Utah	-	-	-
Round 7 Pick 17	Connor Wujiack Int, Boston College	-	-	-
2017		G/GS	Stats
Round 1 Pick 16	Jonathan Allen Int, Alabama	5/5	6.5 Tkls, 1 Sk	2
Round 1 Pick 17	Garrett Bolles OT, Utah	16/16	-	6
Round 2 Pick 48	Derek Rivers Edge, Youngstown State	INJ	-	-
Round 2 Pick 49	Taylor Moton OT, Western Michigan	16/0	-	1
Round 3 Pick 80	Carl Lawson Edge, Auburn	16/1	13 Tkls, 8.5 Sks	2
Round 3 Pick 81	Carlos Henderson WR, Louisiana Tech	-	-	-
Round 4 Pick 124	Blair Brown OBLB, Ohio	13/2	8.5 Tkls, .5 Sk	2
Round 4 Pick 125	Bucky Hodges TE, Virginia Tech	-	-	-
Round 5 Pick 160	Jeremiah Ledbetter Int, Arkansas	16/0	10 Tkls, .5 Sk	1
Round 5 Pick 161	Jalen Myrick CB, Minnesota	5/0	-	0
Round 6 Pick 200	Corey DeAndre FS, New Hampshire	-	-	-
Round 6 Pick 201	Kyle Fuller C, Baylor	9/2	-	1
Round 7 Pick 234	Sojourn Shelton CB, Wisconsin	-	-	-
Round 7 Pick 235	Ejaun Price Edge, Pittsburgh	1/0	-	0

As we look ahead to the 2018 draft there are holes to fill. QB is the biggest and at 16 it’s a crapshoot of who’s going to be there. Donovan Clark hasn’t played in the league yet on my line, and nether has Bucky Hodges at TE. On defense Rivers and Billings have been hurt, Myrick was a return guy only, DeAndre I don’t believe made a roster in 2017 and Reed/Shelton/Cash have played sparingly. I’ll check back in after the draft on this, but if you’ve got thoughts let me know.