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Wednesday, April 20, 2011

2011 Big Ten Football

The 2011 Big Ten football will be one of the more exciting races for the conference title in recent memory. Not only do we have Nebraska joining the league, but Ohio State is a team in turmoil with key senior suspensions early in the season and Tressel's NCAA troubles. With these influences, along with the new divisional set up, the race for the 2011 Big Ten championship has some interesting story lines and teams. Lets start in the Leaders Division by looking at 2010 Regular Season records, Post-Season performances, returning starters(offense, defense and special teamss (punter & kicker)) and any notable coaching changes:
Illinois (4-4, 6-6), 38-14 Texas Bowl Win over Baylor, Returning starters 6 (incl. QB) Off., 6 Def. and 1 ST 
Indiana (1-7, 5-7), no post-season, 6 (no QB) Off., 7 Def. and 2 ST, Kevin Wilson Oklahoma
Ohio State (7-1,11-1), 31-26 Sugar Bowl win over #8 Arkansas, Returning starters 8 (QB) Off., 4 Def. and 1 ST, Jim Tressel is suspended for the first 5 games of the year and maybe more pending NCAA sanctions
Penn Sate (4-4, 7-5), 24-37 Outback Bowl loss to Florida, 7 (QB) Off., 8 Def. and 1 ST
Purdue (2-6, 4-8), no post-season, 7 (QB) Off., 9 Def. and 2 ST
Wisconsin (7-1, 11-1), 19-21 Rose Bowl loss to TCU, 4 (no QB) Off., 6 Def. and 2 ST, With Doeren DC gone Wisconsin promoted it's DC from within with Chris Ash running defense, also worth noting is the departure of John Settle RB who has done wonders with Wisconsin running backs.

Breakdown
It will be interesting to see how Ohio State responds to off the field troubles and the play of some youngsters for those returning starters who have been suspended (Pryor QB, Herron RB, Posey WR, Adams OT and Thomas DE a non-starter) along with the suspension of coach Tressel will tell us a lot about the make up of a team that must replace most of its defense. For what seems like the 3rd time in 3 years we see a lot returning for coach Danny Hope's team but as always health lingers over this team. With that being said I think the team that wins the Big Ten Leaders division will be Penn State Joe has 15 of 22 returning starters and the added caveat of two QB's who started last year should provided more confidence in the offensive huddle. The biggest offensive loss is Wisniewski at guard with 2 returning tackles and a returning guard the offensive line should be solid and Silas Redd showed flashes last year of being a feature back to help whichever QB starts. Ohio State will challenge for the division because of the talent pool but with NCAA sanctions looming over the coach and program off-field distractions and a slow start will hinder this teams chances for success this season. The team I believe will underwhelm will be Wisconsin I don't think they slump to the 7-6 level of a couple years ago but losing the entire left side of the offensive line with two NFL O-line prospects is going to hurt added to the loss of Tolzien will hinder what this team will do. The saving grace for the Badgers will be that the Defense should be healthy and will have playmakers in the back 7 of the defense that will help keep them in games. Lastly it must be noted that Indiana should look better they picked up a very good young coach in Wilson who will continue the recent tradition of high flying offenses at Indiana, however, they will struggle to gain any footing this year in the division.

Now on to the Legends division: 
Iowa (4-4, 7-5) 27-24 Insight Bowl win against Missouri, 5 (no QB) Off., 4 Def. and 1 ST
Michigan (3-5, 7-5) 14-52 Gator Bowl loss against Mississippi State, 9 (QB) Off., 9 Def. and 2 ST, Brady Hoke SDSU HC has come in and brought Mattison DC back to Ann Arbor
Michigan State (7-1, 11-1) 7-49 Capital One Bowl loss to #16 Alabama, 6 (QB) Off., 6 Def. and 1 ST, Treadwell OC leaves and MSU promotes OL coach Dan Roushar to OC
Minnesota (2-6, 3-9), no postseason, 5 (no QB) Off., 9 Def. and 1 ST, Jerry Kill HC NIU
Nebraska (Big 12 last yr) (6-2, 10-3), 7-19 Holiday Bowl loss to Washington, 5 (QB) Off., 7 Def. and 0 ST, Lost OC promoted RB coach Tim Beck to OC
Northwestern (3-5, 7-5), 38-45 TicketCity Bowl loss to Texas Tech, 9 (QB) Off., 7 Def. and 1 ST

Breakdown
The Legends division has two new coaching staffs, one new team and could be anywhere from a 5 horse race for the division title or a run away success for 1 of 3 teams. I think you have 3 tiers of teams in this division, Front-runners: Nebraska and MSU, Wild Cards: Michigan, Northwestern and Iowa, and Underwhelming: Minnesota who is a year or two away. I think Nebraska is the best team in the division with a stand out defense anchored by Jared Crick and a very good stable of linebackers, and offense that has the ability to be very explosive. Michigan State is coming off its best year of the Dantonio era the loss of Treadwell will hurt but you know this team will be solid Michigan is the divisions team that could finish anywhere from 1st to 5th in the standings, they return a bunch of starters on defense but have huge strides to make after an abysmally sloppy season in 2010 from a fundamentals stand point I love the addition of Mattison to Hoke's staff and think that this defense should improve enough to make great strides in the over all team performance. Northwestern's problems haven't changed in the past 5 years plenty of offense but will we see any semblance of a defense out of Coach Fitzpatrick's team this season. Iowa's O-Line should be better this year but inexperience in the backfield at RB & QB will leave explosion to be desired all season; not to mention they have some huge holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball. Coach Ferentz has his work cut out for him this year in Iowa City and should be an interesting study in coaching. Minnesota is inconsistent, with some veterans who played on an all time stinker last year on defense along with a QB who started at WR last year, I believe Kill was the right man from the job as he has built programs at all levels in his career but I think the lack of overall ability and the fragile state of the program will doom his inaugural campaign. I think that Nebraska wins the Legends division in it's first year as a Big Ten program which will be a story line to watch nationally.

End of Year Standings
Leaders
Penn State
Ohio State
Illinois
Wisconsin
Purdue
Indiana
Legends
Nebraska
Michigan
Michigan State
Northwestern
Iowa
Minnesota


Championship Game
Penn State over Nebraska in Indianapolis to close out a wonderful and competitive season for the newly reformed Big Ten.

Note: Returning Starter stats were taken from PhilSteele.com and 2010 records from ESPN.com

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