2011 Realignment

I wanted to jot down my thoughts on conference realignment and put out there where I think this can logically go moving forward. I think conference realignment is fascinating because of the number of teams in which it involves and effects. First I want to lay out a few assumption that I've made: 1)all conferences want to expand their footprint around the country, 2) only three conference are in a true position to be proactive and poach (SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12), 3) TV markets matter more than pedigree and 4) Pedigree is based most on the last dozen years or so because the public doesn't much care if you were good past that point. So with these things in mind let's look at who those three conferences will be targeting.

SEC
1) Texas A&M, brings Texas into the conference footprint, brings two top 15 TV markets in the form of Dallas/Fort Worth and Houston
2) Missouri, brings Missouri into the conference footprint and brings two top 35 markets in the form of St. Louis and Kansas City
3) Florida State, doesn't expand footprint or bring substantial markets but brings in a top ten recognizable brand to the conference
4) Virginia Tech, expands footprint into Virginia, brings D.C. into play and a solid pedigree under Frank Beamer
5) Clemson, adds only depth to the conference without much else with South Carolina already in state
6) Georgia Tech, SEE Clemson

Big Ten
1) Notre Dame, fixation is dangerous here but ND is FSU on steroids for the Big Ten and the ultimate prize in expansion because of pure needle movement
2) Missouri, same pluses for as for the SEC but with the added bonus of being a more seamless fit in the eyes of many as far ideologically
3)Virginia Tech, See Virginia Tech above
4)Maryland, brings D.C. to the table and expands footprint to Maryland, fits into the conference from a feel standpoint
5) West Virginia, Brings in new state in West Virginia but not much splash here doesn't provide much in the way of new markets or pedigree
6) Rutgers, poor pedigree may bring NY/NJ markets but seems to be more out of the loop than most think, won't move the needle
7) Oklahoma, huge splash but doesn't really mesh with the conference, brings Oklahoma and national fan base to the table but definitely a long shot

Pac-12
1) Oklahoma, wooed during last summer's series of realignment, adds another national brand to conference and is obviously a big target for the conference
2) Oklahoma State, purely on being paired with Oklahoma to convince them to move, doesn't bring much else but a team on an upswing
3) Texas, but with a caveat that they disband Longhorn Network which isn't likely to help this situation but definitely the big fish that Larry Scott salivates over
4) Boise State, doesn't fit much of the criteria other than that they have been the premiere mid-major school over a multiple coaches wouldn't add much in markets but would add a good program
5)Texas Tech/Baylor, secondary choices out of Texas to bring markets into play that the Pac-12 doesn't have reach to, but they do have their appeal in such a broad fan base in Texas would be disappointing to presidents if these were options without Oklahoma or Texas

With all this in mind the Big XII is looking like its in bad shape if Texas A&M leaves and spooks Mizzou or Oklahoma, it may ultimately survive but if A&M goes the SEC will likely look for at least a fourteenth team which is likely to come from the east and has been rumored to Florida State. If the SEC makes the move to 16 however the interesting story line will be a perceived battle for Missouri between SEC and Big Ten. Whatever the case here the SEC and A&M control this latest round of expansion and hold all the cards to the future of the BCS as we know it.