We're back for another season of college football and the second for me writing a blog through football season. I plan to use the same guidelines as last year, I will pick all top 25 games, except those against FCS schools, against the spread (ATS) and heads up winners. Without further ado let's kick off week one with some picks.
Thursday, August 30th, 2012:
#9 South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 6:00 pm ESPN: How often past decade has anyone been able to say that they were excited to see what a Vandy season will hold, maybe 3 times. I think this year could be another step forward for the 'Dores, even if the win total doesn't change all that much. South Carolina on the other hand is finally out of the Stephen Garcia era and moves forward with SEC East championship aspirations. I think this game is closer than most. Winner: South Carolina ATS: Vanderbilt +7 (should continue to move toward South Carolina)
Washington State at BYU, 9:15 pm ESPN3: The first game of the Mike Leach era is a late Thursday night kickoff but for insomniacs should be a barn burner. Leach has a history of taking under-talented teams farther than they should, year 1 may be bumpy but leach has some WR talent to work with. Bronco Mendenhall's Cougars may be the best team in Provo in a couple years however the loss of QB Jake Heaps is a step in the wrong direction but BYU should be the best Independent this year. Winner: BYU ATS: BYU -13
Friday, August 31st, 2012:
Tennessee vs North Carolina State, 6:30 pm ESPNU: Tennessee has been in a downhill spiral since the last few years of the Phil Fulmer era, however, this year may be the start of a turn around under Dooley in Knoxville. Improvement still may not render the results wanted by the Vol faithful. Bray is a big time prospect and a big time head case but should be the strong point of the team, the main question on offense is the wide reciever corps which is now without it's most talented athlete in Da'Rick Rogers who was cut from the team last week. NC State is a dark horse ACC contender that at worst will give teh top teams in it's conference fits this year with a high powered offense. This contest will certainly be a gateway into each teams season and help sort out the hierarchy of both conferences below the top tier teams. Winner: NC State ATS: NC State +3.5
#24 Boise State at #13 Michigan State, 7:00 pm ESPN: How effectively can John Southwick replace Kellen Moore? How can Boise replace their top 5 defensive linemen from a year ago? Will Southwick have enough skill position help? How well can Andrew Maxwell replace Kirk Cousins?... The answers, Idk, poorly, yes and I believe surprisingly well. Winner: Michigan State ATS: MSU -7
San Jose State at #21 Stanford, 9:00 pm Pac-12 Net: This was a rout last year and this year should be no different Stanford has a lot to replace on both sides of the ball but San Jose State doesn't have the talent to stay in this game past halftime. Winner: Stanford ATS: San Jose State +25.5
Saturday, September 1st, 2012:
Buffalo at #6 Georgia, 11:00 am ESPN3: Buffalo hails from the MAC conference, it is 1 of 13 teams in that conference and they aren't very good. Georgia is from the SEC, it is 1 of 14 teams in that conference and 1 of 5 with a chance to win the conference. Georgia should win this in a landslide. Winner: Georgia ATS: Georgia -38 (should probably just stay away from this)
Marshall at #11 West Virginia, 11:00 am: This rivalry game has seemed to be closer the last few years than it should have been with West Virginia's talent advantage. Year 2 of Holgerson's offense should see a marked improvement which should allow them to make some noise in the Big XII. Marshall on the other hand is in a place where they are playing on pride and hoping that pride can keep them in this game long enough. Winner: West Virginia ATS: Marshall +24.5
Miami (OH) at #18 Ohio State, 11:00 am BTN: Ohio State has a post-season ban and a new coach which means this game should give us a litmus test for the Buckeyes season compared to last year. Miami (OH) would love to knock off the big dog in the state, I'm just not sure they have the talent in the two deep to keep this close. Winner: Ohio State ATS: Ohio State -23
Ohio at Penn State, 11:00 am ESPN: I have no idea how this game was made a 6 point game to start off with. With all the turnover at Penn State,a new coaching regime and a couple handful of players leaving the program altogether PSU is set up for a struggle of a season. Ohio on the other hand brings back a veteran laden offense that was explosive a year ago and should be even better this season. Ohio should have a very good shot to knock down Penn State and start a season that could end with them being undefeated. Winner: Ohio ATS: Ohio +5.5
Southern Miss at #17 Nebraska, 2:30 ABC/ESPN2: Southern Miss is coming off one of the best seasons in recent memory that culminated in a C-USA championship game upset of Houston and a bowl win over Nevada. Nebraska was good not great in their first year in the Big Ten, where they didn't really challenge for the conference championship. Nebraska's season is dependent on the growth of QB Taylor Martinez and 3 former walk-ons on the offensive line. Winner: Nebraska ATS: Nebraska -19
Hawaii at #1 USC, 6:30 pm: USC should be in the thick of the national title hunt this season but there are some weaknesses with depth and youth on the defensive line. Hawaii is a great place to visit but they have to travel multiple time zones to play on the mainland which leaves them at a huge disadvantage. Winner: USC ATS: USC -42
#8 Michigan vs #2 Alabama, 7:00 pm ABC: This is the game of the week in college football, a week 1 game pairing top 10 preseason foes. Alabama will be what it has been throughout the Saban era strong and talented on defense and efficient on offense. The offense is the season key, it could be one of the most proficient and efficient in the country this year which should worry everyone in the country not just the SEC. Michigan on the other hand has a similar problem to USC, the defensive line is in a rebuilding stage and will most likely be susceptible to being mauled by the Alabama offensive line. On offense it all comes down to Dennard Robinson's ability to control turnovers and make big plays against a defense that is young but extremely talented. Winner: Alabama ATS: Michigan +14
Wyoming at #15 Texas, 7:00 pm LHN: Texas has been an enigma since their national championship appearance in 2009, and I don't believe warranted a top 15 ranking this year. There isn't much to talk about with Wyoming to start the season, there is what there is. Winner: Texas ATS: Texas -30
#4 Oklahoma at UTEP, 9:30 pm: See above about Wyoming, for UTEP. Oklahoma should challenge for a national championship but they must avoid the slips they have been prone to in the past. Winner: Oklahoma ATS: Oklahoma -30.5
Arkansas State at #5 Oregon, 9:30 pm ESPN: This game would be a dream match-up in week 8 because of the offensive match-up. That being said it wouldn't have been close even in week 8, however, both teams will be major players in their conference races. This should be one of the highest scoring games of the year. Winner: Oregon ATS: Arkansas State +36
Sunday, September 2nd, 2012:
Kentucky at #25 Louisville, 2:30 pm ESPN: The 2012 Battle of the Bluegrass on the football field should be an interesting showcase for Louisville. Charlie Strong is entering his third year as the Cardinals head coach and has a team he likes. Kentucky is the worst team in the SEC and has some very big flaws mainly at QB. I think Louisville runs away with this game. Winner: Louisville ATS: Louisville -13.5
Monday, September 3rd, 2012:
Georgia Tech at #16 Virginia Tech, 7:00 pm ESPN: This game will be huge in deciding the winner of the ACC Coastal, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are both among the top 4 or 5 teams in the conference and should showcase ACC football well opening weekend. Georgia Tech is pretty known on the offensive side of the football but has to replace wide out Stephen Hill to provide a deep threat. Virginia Tech is replacing two stud running back and their hopes rest on the back of Logan Thomas. Winner: Virginia Tech ATS: Georgia Tech +7.5
Well there you have it, enjoy the return of football and I'll be back Sunday to recap the week that was.
