Ramblings Sports 2014 CFB Prediction Review

Alright, the season is over the games are done and there is no football on Saturdays until next season. This is a review of all my picks from before the season and how they turned out. I think it's a good exercise to find points of improvement.

AAC

Predicted

1) Cincinnati 2) UCF 3) ECU 4) Houston 5) SMU 6) USF 7) Memphis 8) Tulane 9) Tulsa 10) UCONN 11) Temple

Actual

1) Memphis 1) UCF 1) Cincinnati 4) ECU 4) Houston 6) Temple 7) USF 8) Tulane 8) Tulsa 10) SMU 10) UCONN

My AAC predictions weren't bad, with ties in mind I got six correct out of the 11 teams in the conference. My biggest mistake was Memphis who I predicted to finish seventh and who tied for 1st with wins over both UCF and Cincinnati. I didn't realize how good of a coach Fuentes was, nor the potential for a year 0 in his first leading to a large jump in "year 1". My biggest overrate was SMU who fired June Jones mid-season and didn't win until last week over UCONN.

ACC

Predicted

Atlantic: 1) Florida State 2) Clemson 3) Syracuse 4) Louisville 5) NC State 6) Boston College 

7) Wake Forest

Coastal: 1) Miami 2) Duke 3) Virginia 4) North Carolina 5) Virginia Tech 6) Pittsburgh 

7) Georgia Tech

Actual

Atlantic: 1) Florida State 2) Clemson 3) Louisville 4) Boston College 5) NC State 6) Wake Forest 

7) Syracuse

Coastal: 1) Georgia Tech 2) Duke 3) North Carolina 3) Pittsburgh 5) Miami (FL) 5) Virginia Tech 

5) Virginia

I got the Atlantic Division pretty well with 3 of 7 perfect and another 2 one off. My biggest miss was Syracuse which fell off a cliff and finished last in the division. Boston College was my most underrated in the division with a predicted sixth place finish and an actual fourth place finish. BC was a little easier to figure out, they played stingy defense and got a great impact from Murphy the Florida QB transfer. The Coastal wasn't a horrible in the middle but Georgia Tech took the division after I predicted them seventh and Miami, my predicted winner, finished tied for last in the division with Virginia equally as disappointing.

Big XII

Predicted

1) Oklahoma 2) Baylor 3) TCU 4) Kansas State 5) Oklahoma State 6) Texas 7) Texas Tech 

8) West Virginia 9) Iowa State 10) Kansas

Actual

1) Baylor 1) TCU 3) Kansas State 4) Oklahoma 4) Texas 4) West Virginia 7) Oklahoma State 

8) Texas Tech 9) Kansas 10) Iowa State

The Big XII prediction wasn't bad. Oklahoma was my predicted winner but Baylor, TCU, and Kansas State finished in the order predicted and Iowa State, Kansas State finished in the last two. Texas was better than expected as was West Virginia but all in all Oklahoma was by far my biggest miss and even with the injury to Trevor Knight's it is kind of a mystery. With a very good group of skill players this comes down to a defense that didn't grow into what we thought they would be (see: injured) and Knight not being as great of a increase over Bell.

B1G

Predicted

East: 1) Ohio State 2) Michigan State 3) Maryland 4) Penn State 5) Michigan 6) Indiana 7) Rutgers

West: 1) Wisconsin 2) Nebraska 3) Iowa 4) Minnesota 5) Northwestern 6) Illinois 7) Purdue

Actual

East: 1) Ohio State 2) Michigan State 3) Maryland 4) Rutgers 4) Michigan 6) Penn State 7) Indiana

West: 1) Wisconsin 2) Minnesota 2) Nebraska 4) Iowa 5) Illinois 5) Northwestern 7) Purdue

The East division in the Big Ten is a set of predictions I'm pretty proud of. Rutgers outperformed my expectations but I hit on four exactly including Maryland and Michigan in  picks that I am excited hit. Gary Nova played really well, or at least much better than Gary Nova was expected to play and it meant I was not right about Rutgers. Penn State didn't have an offensive line and it sank a team with an exceptional defense and promising young quarterback. In the West I hit on Wisconsin, Nebraska and the bottom three of Illinois/Northwestern/Purdue. Which leaves Minnesota. I missed on Minnesota and I attribute this to overrating the need for a passing game and the emergence and improvement of David Cobb. There were others responsible, and a ball hawking secondary deserves credit, but Cobb and Mitch Leidner were beastly on the ground with just enough Maxx Williams to have a semblance of balance. Overall at 9/14 spot on, the Big Tenn was one of my better conferences.

C-USA

Predicted

East: 1) Marshall 2) WKU 3) Middle Tennessee 4) UAB 5) Old Dominion 6) FAU 7) FIU

West: 1) Rice 2) UTSA 3) North Texas 4) Louisiana Tech 5) Southern Miss 6) UTEP

Actual

East: 1) Marshall 2) Middle Tennessee 3) WKU 3) UAB 3) Old Dominion 6) FIU 7) FAU

West: 1) Louisiana Tech 2) Rice 2) UTEP 4) UTSA 5) North Texas 6) Southern Miss

Of the two division of C-USA the East division was the "better" of the two. I hit three teams in the East, Marshall being the easiest to pick and Old Dominion and UAB being slightly better than what I predicted but still tied for 3-5 with WKU. MTSU and WKU flipped as did FIU and FAU which means I really wasn't all that far off in this division. The West is a different story Louisiana (division winner) and UTEP (t2) where predicted fourth and sixth or four spots 3/4 places off. UTSA fell off the face of the earth when their best offensive player got hurt early in the year. Rice was fine but just didn't have what it took to take the championship. Overall it was better than first blush but I was off on just about everyone in the West and that's a bummer.

MAC

Predicted

East: 1) Bowling Green 2) Ohio 3) Kent State 4) Buffalo 5) Akron 6) UMASS 7) Miami (OH)

West: 1) Toledo 2) Ball State 3) Central Michigan 4) Northern Illinois 5) Eastern Michigan 

6) Western Michigan

Actual

East: 1) Bowling Green 2) Ohio 3) Buffalo 4) Akron 4) UMASS 6) Miami (OH) 7) Kent State

West: 1) Northern Illinois 1) Toledo 3) Western Michigan 4) Central Michigan 5) Ball State 

6) Eastern Michigan

The MAC was full of interesting results when compared to my pre-season predictions. On one hand, I was right on or close with Bowling Green, Toledo, Ohio, Buffalo, Akron, UMASS, Miami (OH), Central Michigan. I was too pessimistic on NIU and Western Michigan, while being way too bullish on Kent State who would finish last in the East. For NIU, I didn't think they could bounce back from losing Jordan Lynch so quickly. As for Western Michigan, well I didn't put enough into the fact that last year was year 0 for P.J. Fleck and that he was able to put some talent or at least his talent and plans in place. As far as Kent State, well Dri Archer was a big part of their success the last couple of year, of course, but I'm gonna chalk this up to just bad luck.

MWC

Predicted

West: 1) Fresno State 2) San Diego State 3) UNLV 4) Nevada 5) San Jose State 6) Hawaii

Mountain: 1) Boise State 2) Utah State 3) Colorado State 4) Wyoming 5) New Mexico 6) Air Force

Actual

West: 1) San Diego State 1) Fresno State 3) Nevada 4) Hawaii 5) San Jose State 6) UNLV

Mountain: 1) Boise State 2) Colorado State 2) Utah State 4) Air Force 5) New Mexico 5) Wyoming

The Mountain West was one of my better conferences, I hit on 7 predictions, head on, including: Fresno State, San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State, Utah State. I wasn't horribly off on anyone, although, my biggest disappointment may be Craig Bohl's first season in Larime but even there a road bump was expected. Overall I was pretty happy with my predictions on the MWC and the process to get there.

Pac-12

Predicted

North: 1) Oregon 2) Stanford 3) Washington 4) Oregon State 5) Washington State 6) California

South: 1) Arizona 2) UCLA 3) USC 4) Utah 5) Arizona State 6) Colorado

Actual

North: 1) Oregon 2) Stanford 3) Washington 4) California 5) Washington State 5) Oregon State

South: 1) Arizona 2) UCLA 2) Arizona State 2) USC 5) Utah 6) Colorado

As I said at the end of the preseason preview, what was going to make the Pac-12 great was the strength of the middle tier and by god, I was right. I hit the top three in each division head on, of those I'm proudest of my Arizona pick to win the South and admit that Washington wasn't nearly as good as I expected. I was right on Colorado State and Wazzou as well and the rest of the conference I was at worst two spots off. Overall, this was one of the best conferences in the country with a middle that is better than anywhere other than the SEC West.

SEC

Predicted

East: 1) South Carolina 2) Georgia 3) Florida 4) Missouri 5) Tennessee 6) Vanderbilt 7) Kentucky

West: 1) Alabama 2) Auburn 3) LSU 4) Ole Miss 5) Mississippi State 6) Texas A&M 7) Arkansas

Actual

East: 1) Missouri 2) Georgia 3) Florida 4) South Carolina 4) Tennessee 6) Kentucky 7) Vanderbilt

West: 1) Alabama 2) Mississippi State 3) Ole Miss 4) Auburn 4) LSU 6) Texas A&M 7) Arkansas

The SEC was as deep in one division as any in the country, and in the other, flawed to greater degrees by each finishing position.The west fell in behind Alabama at the top, Auburn slipped after a dream season in which everything fell their way, Mississippi State and Ole Miss had resurgent years and took the state to places it hadn't been. LSU was young and inexperienced on both sides of the ball but especially in the offensive skill positions. Arkansas made strides in year two under Bielema who may have done the best coaching job in the country. In the East there was a little more order Georgia and Florida were flawed but finished where I thought they would, Missouri rebounded well from last season, South Carolina fell off like a stone on defense where they lost a considerable chunk on defense. The bottom three were predictable, but with different trajectories. Tennessee and Kentucky are trending in positive directions where as Vanderbilt may be in for a rough couple transition years.

Sun Belt

Predicted

1) Louisiana 2) Arkansas State 3) ULM 4) Troy 5) Georgia Southern 6) South Alabama
7) Texas State 8) New Mexico State 9) Appalachian State 10) Georgia State 11) Idaho

Actual

1) Georgia Southern 2) Louisiana 3) Appalachian State 4) South Alabama 4) Arkansas State
4) Texas State 7) ULM 7) Troy 9) New Mexico State 9) Idaho 11) Georgia State

The Sun Belt was, well, a cluster fuck of a conference this season. First off, bravo to Georgia Southern, who, in there first season, won the conference. Also props to Appalachian State who had a stark turnaround from the FCS level where they had lagged in recent years.The rest of it was a mish mash of a conference that I need to a better job of studying next year.

Want to ridicule me... leave a comment. Enjoy reading or want me to write about something else... Leave a comment. Thanks for reading hopefully I can be better next year.