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Monday, August 20, 2018

2018 College Football Previews: Big XII


Oklahoma has been the class of the Big XII since the bottoming out of the Texas football program. Texas has the talent and is recruiting at a level that should facilitate a rebound, but the program just isn’t their yet. TCU has officially transitioned well to the power 5 after being a contender in the Big Twelve consistently for the past couple of seasons and should be good once again. The middle is good with just about everyone, except Kansas and Baylor being relevant.

The average power rating for the Big XII squads is 4.82.


Team
Adj.
2017
W/L
%
Yards
Ret.
%
Touches
Ret.
%
Line
Starts
Ret.
%
Tackles
Ret.
%
Passes Def.
Ret.
247
Sports
Score
Total
Points
Oklahoma
21.77
43.03%
37.52%
64.38%
56.17%
60.47%
254.42
20.95
TCU
15.05
36.20%
36.76%
18.18%
65.08%
57.14%
211.17
11.63
Oklahoma State
11.5
47.41%
57.73%
29.38%
57.02%
53.33%
192.43
9.6
Texas
4.55
82.57%
82.90%
61.08%
56.72%
60.38%
260.79
8.05
Iowa State
4.44
63.50%
66.12%
51.00%
56.54%
71.05%
173.8
4.6
Kansas State
2.38
66.36%
70.54%
100.00%
59.10%
52.83%
164.71
3.79
Texas Tech
2.06
26.44%
33.59%
81.19%
91.39%
94.44%
184
3.52
West Virginia
2.71
72.83%
68.65%
58.56%
48.12%
52.73%
190
0.92
Kansas
-12.02
91.46%
90.51%
65.22%
88.44%
86.49%
152.49
-6.46
Baylor
-12.17
71.33%
70.00%
77.36%
70.34%
82.22%
199.23
-8.43

As for this season Oklahoma must replace a bunch, but the coaching has been their consistently and the talent is there to step in and keep the regression minimal. TCU is a tier onto themselves both in the ratings and in recruiting where they’re the only non-UT/OU to top 20 weighted recruiting ratings. After those top two Oklahoma State and Texas should be good and challenge, especially Texas who has to replace a considerable amount less than OSU. The middle then are the usual suspects (KSU and TTU), the best returning QB (WVU) and the up-and-comers (ISU). The bottom will be bad again with Kansas and Baylor, but neither returns less than 65% production from any of the five categories recorded.

Top Returning Offensive Producers (Above Average Production)

Quarterbacks (Minimum 120 Pass Attempts)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
AY/A
AY/R
Comp%
Sack%
Will Grier
4
WVU
74
214
9.29
5.12
64.43%
3.50%
Charlie Brewer
2
BAY
73
190
7.82
5.46
68.14%
6.80%
Jacob Park
4
IaSt
76
210
6.97
10.73
61.73%
3.00%
Dru Brown
4
OkSt
72
200
6.73
8.2
61.65%
6.80%
Shane Buechele
3
TEX
73
205
6.39
6.61
64.32%
9.70%
Sam Ehlinger
2
TEX
74
230
6.59
4.97
57.45%
3.80%
Zach Smith
3
BAY
75
225
6.3
5.25
52.24%
8.60%
Peyton Bender
4
KAN
73
190
4.95
1.75
54.21%
5.90%
Carter Stanley
3
KAN
74
196
4.7
3.77
54.59%
6.10%

Running Backs (Minimum 12 Touches)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tou
AY/R
AY/T
RBP>12
Rodney Anderson
3
OKLA
74
218
205
7.45
17.98
24.11
Justice Hill
3
OkSt
70
185
299
6.5
4.83
21.23
David Montgomery
3
IaSt
71
219
294
5.23
6.43
18.97
Trey Sermon
2
OKLA
72
222
137
6.91
8.88
11.83
Darius Anderson
3
TCU
71
205
137
7.15
5.18
10.64
Alex Barnes
3
KSU
73
227
151
6.49
3.22
10
Tre King
4
TTU
71
190
148
5.46
5.47
9.43
Kennedy McKoy
3
WVU
72
201
135
5.8
4
8.43
Khalil Herbert
3
KAN
69
200
128
6.14
3.17
8.06
Abdul Adams
3
OKLA
71
205
64
9.5
14.19
7.97
Daniel Young
2
TEX
72
220
94
5.29
11.49
7.5

Wide Receivers (Minimum 18 Targets)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tar.
AY/T
Cat%
WRP>12
Marquise Brown
3
OKLA
71
162
82
14.92
69.51%
16.49
David Sills V
4
WVU
76
203
101
13.14
59.41%
14.39
Gary Jennings
4
WVU
73
210
133
8.39
72.93%
13.88
CeeDee Lamb
2
OKLA
73
173
67
14.17
68.66%
13.53
Dillon Stoner
2
OkSt
72
198
57
12.14
77.19%
11.79
Jalen McCleskey
4
OkSt
70
170
66
11.27
75.76%
11.76
Denzel Mims
3
BAY
75
197
116
10.7
52.59%
11.5
Steven Sims Jr
4
KAN
70
176
94
10.17
62.77%
11.17
Dalton Schoen
3
KSU
73
205
32
16.5
71.88%
10.98
Hakeem Butler
3
IaSt
78
219
69
12.06
59.42%
10.16
Marcus Simms
3
WVU
72
196
60
12.66
58.33%
9.59
Jalen Reagor
2
TCU
71
185
57
12.81
57.89%
9.33
Mykel Jones
3
OKLA
71
186
21
15.68
76.19%
9.31
Collin Johnson
3
TEX
78
220
99
8.12
54.55%
8.04

Tight Ends (Minimum 12 Targets)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tar.
AY/T
Cat%
TEP>12
N/a
N/a
N/a
N/a
N/a
N/a
N/a
N/a
N/a

At QB Will Grier is by far the best QB back this season, at least where production is regarded. Grier produced 9.29 AY/A while completing 64% of his passes and only getting sacked on 3.5% of his drop-backs. Grier is joined by deep threat David Sills V (13.14 AY/T) and possession receiver Gary Jennings (8.39 AY/T 72.93% catch rate). Add is junior Marcus Simms and his 12.81 AY/T and you have one of the nastiest passing games in the nation, let alone the conference. Baylor brings back sophomore Charlie Brewer, who completed 68% of his passes for 7.82 AY/A.  The only other notable returner for Brewer is receiver Denzel Mims. Mims was targeted 116 times last season for an AY/T of 10.7 and a catch rate of 52.6%. If the deep passing game can become more efficient Mims and Brewer will be right back atop this list next year. Iowa State might have the most well-rounded offense returning next year not only is Jacob Park back after a solid season passing (6.97 AY/T and 3% sack rate) and electric season on the ground (10.73 AY/R), but so is standout running back David Montgomery. Montgomery was the 3rd most productive of the returning producers but he was the most well rounded with 5.23 AY/R and 6.43 AY/T. Add in junior receiver Hakeem Butler who had 69 targets and 12.06 AY/T. If Butler and Park grow into a more efficient combo this offense is going to be sneaky explosive and crazy efficient. Oklahoma State loses Mason Rudolph, Marcel Ateman, and James Washington and may not take too big of a step back. Dru Brown transferred in from Hawaii where he threw for 2785 yards (6.73 AY/A), 61.65 completion percentage, and 8.2 AY/R. Brown at worst should be a high floor stop-gap between Rudolph and freshman Spencer Sanders. At running back Justice Hill is back after nearly 300 touches for 6.5 AY/R and 4.83 AY/T. Joining Hill and QBX to fill in for Washington and Ateman are Dillon Stoner and Jalen McCleskey who combined for 124 targets and 12.14 and 11.27 AY/T respectively, while both catching over 75% of their targets. If Hill can be more of a factor in the pass game and the WR duo keeps most of their efficiency it’ll come down QB to determine the Cowboys success on the offensive side of the ball. At Texas, Shane Buechele (Jr.) and Sam Ehlinger (So.) are both back after varying levels of success on the field in 2017. Buechele was good both through the air and on the ground with 6.39 AY/T, 64% comp%, and 6.61 AY/R. Buchele did take far too many sacks, 9.7%, but a higher sack rate isn’t overly unusual for a QB who’s good at running the ball. Ehlinger was much more of the prototype for a pocket passer, with 4.97 AY/R and 6.59 AY/A but his accuracy was an issue (57.45% comp%). Both are relatively young, and good options, but I would lean Buechele. As we move to the top returning guys at the other two positions it’s notable, if unsurprising, that we haven’t mentioned Oklahoma. With Baker gone there is still “all” of the talent. Starting at RB you have Rodney Anderson (Jr.) and Trey Sermon (So.). Both were strong in the run game with 7.45 and 6.91 AY/R respectively, and although Sermon was good in the pass game (8.88 AY/T), Anderson was spectacular (17.98 AY/T). Anderson took 21 targets for 281 and 5 TDs. That duo is going to make life considerably easier for Kyler Murray, so are receivers Marquise Brown (14.92 AY/T), CeeDee Lamb (14.17), and Mykel Jones (15.68). Both Brown and Lamb brought in over two thirds of their 149 targets. The efficiency is sure to drop on this offense, but there is plenty of talent and returning production to keep the ball moving downfield while replacing a Heisman winner. Let’s go back to RB for a moment and hit on TCU’s Darius Anderson. Anderson had 137 touches last season as a sophomore, but he will need to continue to be one of the best on the ground in the conference (7.15 AY/R). At Wide Receiver, we’ve hit on most of the top returners, but there are still Kansas receiver Steven Sims Jr, who brough in 94 targets for 10.17 AY/T, and Kansas State receiver Dalton Schoen. Schoen was dynamite last year, with 16.5 AY/T on 32 targets, if he can keep 80% of his explosiveness as he gets more targets, he’s going to be one of the breakout stars of 2018.

Top Returning Defensive Producers (Above Average Production)
                                                                                      
Interior Defensive Linemen (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Daniel Wise
4
KAN
75
290
43.5
17.5
6.5
1
214.25
Eli Howard
3
TTU
76
260
23.5
8.5
5.5
3
155.5
Ira Lewis
4
BAY
75
290
27
11.5
5.5
0
141.38
Ezekiel Rose
4
WVU
75
265
21.5
5
5
3
126.63
Kolin Hill
4
TTU
74
245
38
6
2
4
125
Adam Shuler II
3
WVU
76
268
31.5
8
3
0
95.13
Charles Omenihu
4
TEX
79
280
24
7
4
0
93
Kenneth Mann
3
OKLA
75
265
21
6
5
0
92
L.J. Collier
4
TCU
76
279
13
4.5
4
1
86.75
Trey Dishon
3
KSU
72
311
18.5
4
1
3
83.38
Darrion Daniels
4
OkSt
75
300
21.5
5
0.5
2
75.25
Ross Blacklock
2
TCU
76
326
20.5
6.5
2
0
72.63
James Lynch
2
BAY
76
285
17.5
5
3
0
67.63
Malcolm Roach
3
TEX
76
270
27
4
2
1
67.25
Enoch Smith Jr
4
OkSt
74
295
13
5.5
2.5
0
66.63
Reese Donahue
3
WVU
76
263
30.5
6
1
0
63.38

Edge Rushers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Ben Banogu
4
TCU
76
245
39
16.5
8.5
1
259.78
JaQuan Bailey
3
IaSt
74
260
26.5
11
7
3
197.28
Jordan Brailford
4
OkSt
75
250
45.5
11
5
1
167.22
Tony Jones
4
TTU
74
225
27
7
4
2
109.13
Cole Walterscheid
4
OkSt
77
260
18.5
6.5
1
0
106.88

Off-Ball Linebackers (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Joe Dineen Jr
4
KAN
74
230
113
23
2.5
2
178.88
David Long Jr
3
WVU
71
222
65
15.5
3.5
6
141.96
Justin Phillips
4
OkSt
72
230
53
9.5
2.5
4
133.64
Marcel Spears Jr
3
IaSt
73
215
81.5
8.5
1
5
131.34
Willie Harvey
4
IaSt
72
222
56
11.5
4
6
131.14
Dakota Allen
4
TTU
73
235
80
6
2
6
111.13
Ty Summers
4
TCU
74
242
50
8
4
6
110.65
Breckyn Hager
4
TEX
76
245
22
9
4
4
80.43
Clay Johnston
3
BAY
73
220
44
9
1
0
78.84
Kenneth Murray
2
OKLA
74
242
59
7.5
1
0
77.53
Caleb Kelly
3
OKLA
75
229
46
3.5
1
2
74.95
Gary Johnson
4
TEX
73
220
49
6
2
1
71.83
Calvin Bundage
3
OkSt
74
205
45
5.5
3
1
55.58
Keith Loneker Jr
4
KAN
74
225
39.5
3.5
1.5
1
54.47
Eric Ogor
3
BAY
71
205
23
6.5
2
1
50.34

Cornerbacks (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
A.J. Green
3
OkSt
73
180
43
4.5
0
9
83
Kris Boyd
4
TEX
72
200
47.5
0.5
0
17
80
Duke Shelley
4
KSU
69
178
54.5
4
1
13
78.75
Brian Peavy
4
IaSt
69
190
68.5
6
0
11
75.5
Parnell Motley
3
OKLA
72
175
56
4.5
0
11
71
Hasan Defense
3
KAN
71
180
38
1
0
11
60.5
Grayland Arnold
3
BAY
69
190
30.5
3
0
8
46.5
Jeff Gladney
3
TCU
72
187
25.5
0
0
7
43.5
Harrison Hand
2
BAY
72
190
36.5
0.5
0
9
42.5
DeAnte Ford
3
KAN
70
175
14
1.5
0
10
39.5
Rodarius Williams
2
OkSt
72
180
40
1
0
10
38
Damarcus Fields
2
TTU
72
200
44.5
0
0
8
37.5

Free Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Jah'Shawn Johnson
4
TTU
70
185
82.5
4
0
5
132.72
Ridwan Issahaku
4
TCU
73
196
55.5
6
2
6
113.72
Denzel Goolsby
3
KSU
71
192
71.5
2
1
6
104.72
D'Andre Payne
4
IaSt
70
180
43.5
6
0
3
103.03
Bryce Torneden
3
KAN
70
190
53.5
5
2
1
77.84
P.J. Locke III
4
TEX
72
205
31.5
2.5
0
2
73.56
Niko Small
4
TCU
70
194
34
1
0
5
73.38
Mike Lee
3
KAN
71
176
64
2
0
3
71.81
Tyrone Miller Jr
4
KAN
72
182
42.5
2
0
3
59.72

Strong Safeties (Minimum 12 Points)
Player
Year
Team
Height
Weight
Tkls
TFLs
Sacks
PDs
Points
Justus Parker
3
TTU
72
210
38
2.5
0
8
120.81
Kendall Adams
4
KSU
73
221
57
1
0
6
97.43
Kenny Robinson
2
WVU
74
202
39
2
0
6
95.1
Innis Gaines
3
TCU
74
201
29.5
6
2
4
71.14
Dravon Askew-Henry
4
WVU
72
200
49.5
2.5
0
5
66.63
Davante Davis
4
TEX
75
200
24.5
1
0
5
65.74
Vaughnte Dorsey
4
TTU
71
200
49.5
1.5
0
4
57.83
Octavious Morgan
4
TTU
72
205
34.5
1
0
8
52.36
Dylan Tonkery
2
WVU
72
222
38.5
7
2.5
1
50.91
Brandon Jones
3
TEX
73
205
56
4
0
2
47.45
Desmon Smith
3
TTU
74
190
27
1
0
4
47.18
Willie Sykes
3
TTU
72
185
12
2
1
3
42.05

On the defensive side of the ball Kansas… Yes, Kansas looks to be in pretty solid shape returning production-wise, starting up front with Daniel Wise. Wise had 17.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks as a junior at 6’3”, 290 pounds. Wise is joined by the leading returning producer at linebacker Joe Dineen Jr. Dineen had 113 tackles, but he wasn’t just an accumulator he was force in the backfield as well with 23 tackles for loss. The Jahawks aren’t as prolific in the secondary, but they have five returning producers on the list, corners Hasan Defense and DeAnte Ford and safeties Bryce Torneden, Mike Lee, and Tyrone Miller Jr, who combined for 212 tackles, 11.5 TFLs, and 28 passes defensed. Kansas won’t have a shutdown defense, but they’re experienced and productive and that should help. Our next group to look at, because they have the next best interior producer, is Texas Tech. Tech wasn’t horrible on defense last year, they weren’t good either, but they’ve had years where they were in the 120s and last year in per play and opponent adjusted metrics they were in the low 80s. That poor, not putrid, defense brings back production at just about every level this season, starting up front with Eli Howard (INT), Kolin Hill (INT), and Tony Jones (Edge). Howard, Hill, and Jones combined for 88.5 tackles, 21.5 TFLs, and 9 sacks. None was spectacular, but they all made an impact. At linebacker, Tech gets Dakota Allen back, and with him 80 tackles, 6 TFLs, and 6 PDs. At DB Tech has the top returning safety in both groups, and five other DBs of note who return for another good round of good enough defense in an offensive nightmare. Corner Damarcus Fields had 44.5 tackles and 8 PDs as a freshman, safeties Jah’Shawn Johnson and Justin Parker had 82.5 tackles, 4 for a loss, and 5 PDs, and 38, 2.5, 8 respectively, and the remain quartet of Dorsey/Morgan/Smith/Sykes combined for 123 tackles and 19 PDs. Next on our list is Baylor, led up front by Ira Lewis. Lewis had 11.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks and is joined by sophomore James Lynch who had a promising 5 TFls and 3 sacks. On the second-level, juniors Clay Johnston and Eric Ogor combined for 67 tackles, 15.5 TFLs, and a trio of sacks. Meanwhile, in the secondary, junior Grayland Arnold (8 PDs and 3 TFLs) and sophomore Harrison Hand (9 PDs and 36.5 tackles) are back at corner, but they stand alone. All-in-all, Baylor has some young pieces, but it will probably be another rough year in the transition to the Rhule era. We head east to Morgantown where the Mountaineers are led by a trio of returning producers in the front seven. On the interior of the line Ezekiel Rose is the standout after a 5 TFL/5 sacks/3PD junior season. Joining Rose is Adam Shuler II and his 31.5 tackles, 8 TFLs, and 3 sacks. Behind those two is linebacker David Long Jr, who got in on the backfield part with 15.5 TFLs and 6 PDs. Lastly for West Virginia are the safeties, Kenny Robinson, Dravon Askew-Henry, and Dylan Tonkery. That trio combined for 127 tackles, 11.5 TFLs, and 12 passes defensed. As we move on to the notable returners edge rushers we come to the standout producer Ben Banogu of TCU. Banogu had 8.5 sacks and 16.5 TFLs. He’s joined in the front seven by L.J. Collier (INT), Ross Blacklock (INT), and Ty Summers (OBLB) who combined for 73.5 tackles, 19 TFLs, and 10 sacks which should give them a solid, if unspectacular front seven. Behind those four is another quartet led by elite safety Ridwan Issahaku (55.5 tackles, 6 TFLs, and 6 PDs). Joining Issahaku are Jeff Gladney (CB), Innis Gaines (SS), and Niko Small (FS) who combined for 89 tackles, 7 TFLs, and 16 PDs. Iowa State is lead on defense by Edge JaQuan Bailey. Bailey produced 11 TFLs, 7 sacks, and a trio of PDs. He’s joined in the front seven by OBLBs Marcel Spears Jr and Willie Harvey. That duo combined for 137.5 tackles, 20 TFLs, 5 sacks, and 11 passes defensed. They are the best pair of returning linebackers in the conference. On the back end standouts are sparse with only Brian Peavy (CB) and D’Andre Payne (FS) returning. The two DBs combined for 112 tackles, 12 TFLs, and 14 PDs which all-in-all isn’t a bad base on which to build a secondary. Oklahoma State is the only school with a pair of returning producers in each of the three front seven groupings. At Edge, Jordan Brailford and Cole Walterscheid combined for 17.5 TFLs and 6 sacks, they are joined by interior linemen Darrion Daniels and Enoch Smith Jr who add in their own 10.5 TFLs and 3 sacks. Behind those four you have two corners and what should be a pair of great young bookends to build a secondary around. A.J. Green had 43 tackles, 4.5 for a loss, and 9 passes defensed in his sophomore season and is joined by sophomore Rodarius Williams who returns after 40 tackles and 10 passes defensed himself. So, the Cowboys have bookends on the line, at linebacker, and at corner and production returning at DT as well. As we move to the elite returning producers at corner we finally get to take a look at Texas. Corner Kris Boyd is back after a 47.5 tackle and 17 PD season and is joined by a trio of other DBs in P.J. Locke III, Davante Davis, and Brandon Jones. The trio of Locke III, Davis, and Jones combined for 92 tackles and 9 passes defensed. In front of that quartet are a pair of interior linemen and a pair of OBLBs. The quartet of Charles Omenihu (INT), Malcom Roach (INT), Breckyn Hager (OBLB), and Gary Johnson (OBLB) combined for 122 tackles, 26 TFLs, 12 sacks, and 6 PDs. As for Kansas State and Oklahoma, they each have their collection of players here in the secondary and front seven respectively.

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