2014 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

To start my look at the upcoming fantasy football season I think it only fitting to start with the position that can so easily make or break your roster, running back. Yes, in season one can find starting running backs on the waiver wire and there will be top ten picks that go bust but there is a small supply of running backs that have their teams lead back role down and provide the stability week to week that will be necessary to win ones league.

With running back there are a few rules to consider when looking at when drafting and rostering running backs. First, opportunity is tantamount, Chris Johnson’s 2013 is a prime example. Johnson is a running back that needs a hefty number of carries to be a factor in fantasy even when he is a subpar option as an actual running back in the NFL. Always look for those backs that have a strangle hold on the starting job and a clear majority of carries. Second, age should always be considered it has been shown time and again that RB with heavy workloads leading into the age 30 or so season have a propensity to break down. Always be wary of those backs with large amounts of carries in their career and are starting the twilight of their careers. Third, always be prescient of those backs that are key contributors in the passing game, it is by no means the most paramount skill for a running back in fantasy but a McCoy or Charles brings a little a more to the table than a Peterson or Lynch who aren’t much of a factor in the passing game. Fourth, always be mindful of oft injured stars, this goes for all positions but should be mentioned nonetheless.

Ranking Criteria:

Clear Number Ones: Knowshon Moreno (Miami), Chris Johnson (Jets), Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati)?, Ben Tate (Cleveland), Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh)?, Arian Foster (Houston), Montee Ball (Denver), Jamaal Charles (Kansas City), Darren McFadden (Oakland), Ryan Mathews (San Diego), Demarco Murray (Dallas), LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia), Alfred Morris (Washington), Matt Forte (Chicago), Reggie Bush (Detroit), Eddie Lacy (Green Bay), Adrian Peterson (Minnesota), Doug Martin (Tampa Bay), Frank Gore (San Francisco), Marshawn Lynch (Seattle), Zach Stacy (St. Louis)

Admittedly this is a hefty list of clear number ones and it should be stated that having the number one job is a great help in having production at the running back position but that list provides a lot of talented and less than above average players at the position. There are a couple that I struggled with whether to put on the list or not, Bernard has some push behind him and with a new offensive staff in Cincinnati it will be interesting to see if they make a more concerted effort to give Bernard more carries than BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Justin hill or whether that will be more of a committee this year again. Second was Le’Veon bell with the addition of LeGarette Blount, Bell should be the bell-cow for the Steelers but Blount has proven to be an effective, if less than exciting, producer in the past.

Age 28 or Greater as of Dec 31: Matt Forte (Chicago) 28, Chris Johnson (Tennessee) 28, Adrian Peterson (Minnesota) 28, Frank Gore (San Francisco) 30, Maurice Jones-Drew (Jacksonville) 28, Reggie Bush (Detroit) 28, BenJarvus Green-Ellis (Cincinnati) 28, Fred Jackson (Buffalo) 32, DeAngelo Williams (Carolian) 30, Rashad Jenning (Oakland) 28, Steven Jackson (Atlanta) 30, Pierre Thomas (New Orleans) 29, Shonn Greene (Tennessee) 28, Darren Sproles (New Orleans) 30

The other factor to age is the number of carries, this helps to differentiate the difference between an aging running back that is ripe to breakdown because of age and a workload and the one that is aging but doesn’t have the wear and tear on the legs and body from a punishing workload. There are six backs who standout in the group of carries and receptions. Jackson (2992), Gore (2518), Peterson (2239), Jones-Drew (2139), Johnson (2014) and Forte (1892).

Receiving Threats: Pierre Thomas (New Orleans) 77, Danny Woodhead (San Diego) 76, Matt Forte (Chicago) 74, Darren Sproles (New Orleans) 71, Jamaal Charles (Kansas City) 70, Ray Rice (Baltimore) 58, Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati) 56, Reggie Bush (Detroit) 54, Joique Bell (Detroit) 53, DeMarco Murray (Dallas) 53, LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia) 52, Jaquizz Rodgers (Atlanta) 52, Fred Jackson (Buffalo) 47, Shane Vereen (New England) 47, Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh) 45, Maurice Jones-Drew (Oakland) 43, Chris Johnson (Jets) 42

Injury Risk: Ryan Mathews has been injured in all four seasons he’s been in San Diego with a myriad of injuries, last season was his most “healthy” and he was still on the injury report nine weeks. All were probables but the injury risk here is still very high. Knowshown Moreno has had recurring knee issues throughout his career that cost him the second half of 2011, he’s been injured off and on the last two seasons but he’s getting up there in age and there are concerns. Le’Veon Bell missed the start of the season with foot injuries and didn’t play until week five. Ben Tate missed all of 2010, and has been on the injury report for a great portion of the 2012 & 2013 seasons. Reggie Bush missed around half of 2010 with a fibula injury, 2011-13 were littered with kneed and groin issues which for a quick twitch back who relies on his athleticism is a concern. Andre Brown, was on the IR from week 13 of 2012 ‘til week 9 of 2013. Brown is on this because of the handcuff possibilities for the next player. Arian Foster’s 2012 was a myriad of knee and hamstring injuries, followed up by 2013 in which he had calf problems and then missed week 10 until the end of the year with a back injury that landed him on the IR. Doug Martin was the breakout star of 2012 but 2013 saw him hit the IR with a shoulder injury that ended his season. Darren McFadden has had injuries in each of the last three season that have kept him out of games, 2011: foot, 2012: ankle and 2013: hamstring/ankle. Lowe body injuries are always a scary and fickle beefs. Darren Sproles his aren’t as bad as many in this grouping but he was hampered by a lingering ankle injury late in the season but has only missed two games in the last seven seasons.

For your consideration: The Rankings

Tier 1: Elite

1) LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles

2) Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs

3) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

4) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

5) Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

6) Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers

7) Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8) Le’Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

The eltie group and there are two glaring things in the first tier. First is the placement of one Adrian Peterson, I have him fourth because he's 29 years old with almost 2300 touches to his career. The other part is the inclusion of Lacy, Martin and Bell at the bottom of this tier and not the next tier. The trio are all technically second year players with Martin missing his true sophmore campaign to injury last season, all three players have control of their starting jobs and the opportunity to utilize their talents effectively.

Tier 2: Talented But Questions

9) Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins

10) Arian Foster, Houston Texans

11) Reggie Bush, Detroit Lions

12) Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals

13) C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills

14) Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

15) Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams

16) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

17) Chris Johnson, New York Jets

18) Montee Ball, Denver Broncos

Foster has had injury issues and Bush has never been utilized fully and unless Detroit is ahead more in the fourth quarter his carries are limited and so too his value. Morris, Bernard and Spiller are all in very similar spots to one another. Starting talents, situations in which they should get the majority of their teams’ carries, but all three are stuck in questionable tandem decisions. Mathews is the biggest injury risk of the bunch but is the most talented back on his roster and has a great situation. Stacy had a huge breakout last season, but now has a rookie in Tre Mason to challenge him on the roster. Gore is a 31 year old with over 2500 touches in his career and always seems to miss at least one game, but he still has bell cow status. Johnson moves from one situation with no real competition to another, where Chris Ivory is the only real challenge to him getting a large majority of the careers. Finally, Ball gets the full time job in Denver but needs to be a more consistent pass blocker to stay on the field all three downs and needs to fix his fumbling issues that have popped up as of late.

Tier 3: Starters and Platoons; Many New Faces in New Places

19) DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

20) Shane Vereen, New England Patriots

21) Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills

22) Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders

23) Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints

24) Shonn Greene, Tennessee Titans

25) Ben Tate, Cleveland Browns

26) Andre Ellington, Arizoan Cardinals

27) Rashad Jennings, New York Giants

28) Jacquizz Rodgers, Atlanta Falcons

29) Steven Ridley, New England Patriots

30) Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans

31) Toby Gerhart, Jacksonville Jaguars

This tier is where the good decisions and the bad decisions will separate out and affect your league the most. Which players you like and don’t like to populate your bench with will ultimately be why you succeed or fail when injuries and busts come from the top of your draft. Tate, Ellington, Jennings and Gerhart all stick out here as being underrated, but each has an issue which has driven down their ranking. Tate and Gerhart have been nothing but backups in their careers to this point. Both have filled in for parts of seasons when their respective starters have gone down but neither has been a bell cow from word go. Tate also has injury issues that worry me some in moving to a feature back role. Ellington should get more carries in Arizona and is an explosive playmaker but the coaching staff has doubts about his ability to withstand a true number one workload and that stunts his upside. Jackson is the less talented part of the Bills tandem and getting up there in age, Mcfadden falls into the same an oft-injured and unreliable category with Murray, Thomas is in a backfield situation in which he doesn’t ever get the touches that would allow elite production and Greene is a subpar running back who will probably share carries with the rookie Sankey. Rodgers is stuck behind a fast aging Steven Jackson for some reason. Ridley would be on the same level as Vereen but fumbling issues get him benched at least once a season and that is a shame. This is most certainly the grouping that will decide who best deals with early injuries but it’s a tricky puzzle to decipher as everyone has flaws or unknowns.

Tier 4: Starters or Platoon Players Whom I Need to See Play

32) Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens

33) Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins

34) DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers

35) Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers

36) Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

37) Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints

38) Darren Sproles, Philadelphia Eagles

39) Stephon Taylor, Arizona Cardinals

40) BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals

41) Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens

42) Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers

43) Maurice Jones-Drew, Oakland Raiders

44) Stephen Jackson, Atlanta Falcons

45) Joique Bell, Detroit Lions

46) LeGarette Blount, Pittsburgh Steelers

Much like the last group I think there is potential here but there are also some major concerns. Rice was terrible last season and it is more than likely wasn’t all the line’s fault but his Pierce wasn’t much better in his stead. Moreno is the wrong side of 30, Williams and Stewart will be mirror images of each other until Stewart gets hurt and Williams starts to underperform while Tolbert steals touchdowns and carries. Richardson isn’t good but has opportunities, Ingram’s career is Richardson but a couple years ahead. Sproles should be a nice complement to McCoy, Taylor should get opportunities with the limitation on Ellington’s carries, Green-Ellis is less talented than Bernard but always seems to get carries in the Cincinnati offense. Woodhead is Sproles in a less explosive offense. Jones-Drew and Jackson are over the hill and have a bunch of miles on their legs. Bell and Blount are the clear backups on their teams but their roles within those offenses are not defined coming into the season.

Tier 5: Flyers and Free Agents

47) Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts

48) Donald Brown, San Diego Chargers

49) Chris Ivory, New York Jets

50) Andre Brown, Houston Texans

51) Mike Tolbert, Carolina Panthers

52) Roy Helu, Washington Redskins

53) Mikel LeShoure, Detroit Lions

54) Vick Ballard, Indianapolis Colts

55) Peyton Hillis, Free Agent

56) Willis McGahee, Free Agent

57) Michael Bush, Free Agent

58) Brandon Jacobs, Free Agent

Yeah these are all free agents or backs stuck deep on rosters but names that have showed flashes of performance in the past or are well past the age line.

I hope this helps you as you look towards fantasy football season it has certainly been an exercise that has helped me better put into perspective my rankings. Leave any disagreements in the comments and let me know what you think.