This week I decided to use the F+ rankings from Football Outsiders, the combining of S&P+ created by Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) and FEI created by Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau). I used that this week to get a different perspective on the 25 best teams in the country and to give some of the conference title races some more context.
Tuesday, November 11th, 2014:
#66 Toledo (27.42) at #92 Northern Illinois (35.34) (2.25), 7:00 pm ESPN2, Toledo heads to DeKalb for a match-up that will clarify the MAC West up quite a bit. Toledo is a game up on NIU and WMU and looks to be the best team in the conference. The per play stats favor NIU a bit as there defense is better at a slightly better rate than Toledo's offense is better. A win for Toledo would put them up 2 games on NIU and holding the tie breaker over both teams. Power Pick: Northern Illinois by 10.17 My Pick: Toledo 27-20 Line: Northern Illinois -4.5
Thursday, November 13th, 2014:
#57 East Carolina (22.52) at #64 Cincinnati (18.02) (3.04), 6:00 pm ESPN2, East Carolina and Cincinnati meet up to help clarify a muddle at teh top of the AAC. Both are a .5 GB, East Carolina had a heck of non-con season but has cooled off considerably in conference play. The key in this one might actually be the Pirates defense which has only given up .337 points per game and on a per play basis is the best unit on the field. Cincinnati for their part has strung to three straight wins after there straight losses to regain their steady, but they did it against some of the poorer side of the conference and is gonna need help to beat ECU even at home. Power Pick: East Carolina by 1.46 My Pick: East Carolina 31-21 Line: East Carolina -2.5
#49 California (22.57) at #24 USC (67.64) (4.32), 8:00 pm ESPN, Despite a bit of a fall to earth post Stanford win the Trojans are still right in the thick of things but need some help and can't afford a another loss if they have any chance at the crown. California is much improved over last season and Goff and the offense have been very good but they aren't quite where they need to be to pull off an upset like this, but the time is nigh. (3-4 North, 5-2 South) Power Pick: USC by 49.39 My Pick: USC 41-34 Line: USC -14.5
Friday, November 14th, 2014:
#119 Tulsa (-3.68) at #60 UCF (29.44) (3.19), 7:00 pm ESPN2, UCF welcomes Tulsa in a must win for Tulsa if they have any remaining aspirations for the conference crown. At 2-3 they are two games back of the conference lead and tied for seventh. UCF is tied wtih Cincy and UCF at 3-1 a half game back of Memphis. There aren't a whole lot that is redeeming statistically for Tulsa and UCF has a pretty stark defensive advantage and at least has a semi-competent offense which seems to be alluding the Golden Hurricanes. Power Pick: UCF by 36.31 My Pick: UCF 38-17 Line: UCF -19.5
Saturday, November 15th, 2014:
#3 Ohio State (59.15) at #34 Minnesota (46.50) (3.66), 11:00 am ABC, Can the surprisingly adequate Gophers give the Buckeyes a run for their money? Well not on my dime, Minnesota is a rather one dimensional team with only one real receiving threat (the excellent Maxx Williams) and a quarterback that is erratic to say the least. Ohio State and J.T. Barrett may have a bit of a hangover coming off a sublime effort in East Lansing, but I expect them to hit their stride early in the second half. If Ohio State can slow the run game down this game may get ugly early, but a sluggish OSU could make this a real interesting noon kickoff. Power Pick: Ohio State by 8.99 My Pick: Ohio State 38-20 Line: Ohio State -12
#18 Clemson (49.98) at #17 Georgia Tech (36.73) (3.47), 11:00 am ESPN, Clemson for all intents and purposes is a full game back of Florida State, because of it's loss but sits just a half game back at 6-1 in conference. A loss to Tech this week would knock them out of the running for the divisional crown and the outside chance of a big six bowl game. Tech is in a de facto tie in the coastal Duke but have played two more conference games and lost to the Blue Devils, so this is a must win on both sides. My system says Clemson is the clar choice the F/+ say this is a toss up. Power Pick: Clemson by 9.78 My Pick: Georgia Tech 24-20 Line: Clemson -3
#28 Virginia Tech (27.80) at #23 Duke (54.37) (2.59), 11:00 am EPSNU, Va Tech stands out in these rankings sitting at 4-5 overall and 1-4 in the coastal hardly seems like the #28 team in the country. They do rank number five in defnsive F/+ with the number eighty one offense and an above average special teams unit. They are gonna need to pull out all the stops against a Duke team that has the best special teams in the country and a solid O (#44) and better than expected D (#23). I got Duke here to solidify their lead on the Coastal heading into their last couple games. Power Pick: Duke by 29.17 My Pick: Duke 34-26 Line: Duke -5.5
#59 Nevada (29.12) at #46 Air Force (8.87) (2.62), 1:00 pm, A game with implications on both sides of the Mountain West divisional races, between two team that are both 3-2 in conference. Nevada is tied for first in the West with San Diego State a half game up on Fresno State. Air Force is a game and a half back of Colorado State in the Mountain but the Falcons are also a game back of both Boise and Utah and need a win here to keep the slight chance of a divisional crown open. Overall this is a pretty even matchup, with Air Force having a slight defensive advantage (.326 to .335 PPP) and Nevada being better on offense (.393 to .382). Power Pick: Nevada by 17.64 My Pick: Air Force 27-23 Line: Air Force -2
#89 Rice (16.67) at #21 Marshall (35.50) (2.25), 1:00 pm, Marshall is 5-0 in CUSA East with a 1 game lead with three to play and looking like the only undefeated team outside a major conference and one of only a handful in all. Rice is a game and a half back in the West, 4-1 in conference but they are gonna be 4-2 after this week. Power Pick: Marshall by 21.08 My Pick: Marshall 28-13 Line: Marshall -21
#7 TCU (37.82) at #102 Kansas (11.86) (2.97), 2:00 pm Fox Sports 1, Not gonna be able to pick Kansas in this one. Power Pick: TCU by 22.99 My Pick: TCU 45-13 Line: TCU -28
#6 Mississippi State (65.87) at #1 Alabama (58.51) (5.45), 2:30 pm CBS, Mississippi State heads to Tuscaloosa to try and stay undefeated. Alabama is coming off an overtime win at LSU and Mississippi State is off a bye week. I'm not sure what to think I don't think Miss State is the best team in the country but I'm not sure that is Bama either. I think the Tide defense does just enough to slow Dak down and Kiffin calls just enough of the right plays to win this game. Power Pick: Mississippi State by 1.91 My Pick: Alabama 24-21 Line: Alabama -8.5
#11 Oklahoma (61.50) at #81 Texas Tech (21.24) (4.01), 2:30 pm ESPN, Oklahoma lost to Baylor at home last week and for all intents and purposes need a miracle to win the Big XII. Tech is in shambles and doesn't know who their QB is. I'll take Oklahoma on talent but I'm not sure you wanna watch this game. Power Pick: Oklahoma by 36.25 My Pick: Oklahoma 38-17 Line: n/a
#14 Nebraska (40.84) at #19 Wisconsin (40.07) (4.72), 2:30 pm ABC, This line baffles me it's up to Wisconsin by six as I write having moved up from Wisconsin by 4 and/or five in spots. I think Nebraska is by far the better team here but my ratings disagree with me and so does the line. Unless Gordon has an all-time game like he did first half versus LSU I just don't see it happening. Winner here is the favorite for the division. Power Pick: Wisconsin by 3.95 My Pick: Line: Wisconsin -6
Note: Everything under this was updated after 6:30 pm on 11/11
#67 Northwestern at #22 Notre Dame, 2:30 pm NBC, Power Pick: Notre Dame by 34.16 My Pick: Line:
#61 Washington (52.99) at #17 Arizona (59.75) (3.44), 2:30 pm FOX, (2-4 North 3.5GB, 4-2 South 1GB) Power Pick: Arizona by 10.20 My Pick: Line:
#45 Memphis (21.44) at #99 Tulane (10.50) (1.25), 2:30 pm ESPNU, (4-1 AAC .5GU, 2-3 AAC 2GB) Power Pick: Memphis by 9.69 My Pick: Line:
#25 Utah (44.65) at #35 Stanford (55.94) (3.78), 5:00 pm Pac-12 Network, (3-3 South 2GB, 3-3 North 2.5GB) Power Pick: Stanford by 15.06 My Pick: Line:
#5 Auburn (82.42) at #13 Georgia (59.01) (5.13), 6:15 pm ESPN, (4-2 West 1.5 GB, 5-2 East T1 (Mizz 4-1)) Power Pick: Auburn by 18.28 My Pick: Line:
#9 Florida State (79.58) at #12 Miami (FL) (43.14) (3.18), 7:00 pm ABC, (6-0 Atlantic .5GU, 3-2 Coastal 1GB) Power Pick: Florida State by 33.26 My Pick: Line:
#10 LSU (50.37) at #37 Arkansas (31.54) (40.05), 7:00 pm ESPN2, (3-3 West 2.5GB, 0-5 West 5GB) Power Pick: LSU by 14.78 My Pick: Line:
#25 Michigan State (55.38) at #42 Maryland (44.87) (2.91), 7:00 pm BTN, (4-1 East 1GB, 3-2 East 2GB) Power Pick: Michigan State by 7.61 My Pick: Line:
#88 San Diego State (16.40) at #33 Boise State (29.66) (3.42), 9:15 pm ESPNU, (3-2 West 2 way tie for 1st, 4-1 Mountain .5GB T2) Power Pick: Boise State by 16.68 My Pick: Line:
#16 Arizona State (67.91) at #73 Oregon State (36.21) (3.54), 9:45 pm ESPN, (5-1 South .5GU, 1-5 North 4.5GB) Power Pick: Arizona State by 28.16 My Pick: Line:
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