Week 11 is upon us and with five weeks left in the season, and the fifth being championship week, my preview will now include games that affect how the conference races will play out.
Tuesday, November 4th, 2014:
Bowling Green (17.25) at Akron (7.48) (1.51), 7:00 pm ESPN2, We're to that time of year where you can watch football everyday of the week and there are a myriad of lesser games that have major, conference implications. Bowling Green comes in at 3-1 in the conference and a game up on Akron (2-2) in the East. My system makes the Falcons about a touchdown favorite and a look at points per play the Akron offense is the weakest unit on the field at .207 pts per play. Look for Akron to take some chances but unless they hit a couple of them Bowling Green wins. Power Pick: Bowling Green 8.26 My Pick: Bowling Green 31-24 Line: Akron -6.5
Thursday, November 6th, 2014:
#21 Clemson (48.81) at Wake Forest (.45) (3.07), 6:30 pm ESPN, Thursday we get our first ranked team of the week in a game of almost zero confidence against one of the worst BCS teams. Clemson walks no matter who QBs Clemson. Power Pick: Clemson by 45.29 My Pick: Clemson 48-10 Line: Clemson -21.5
Friday, November 7th, 2014:
Utah State (20.06) at Wyoming (-.95) (2.11), 7:00 pm ESPN2, This one was fringe for inclusion but Wyoming's performance last week and Utah State being tied with Boise a half game back in the Mountain meant this matchup could be meaningful if the top of the division falls correctly. Utah State no longer has Chuckie Keeton but they have been pretty good without him, with no bad losses. Wyoming got off to a slow start in Craig Bohl's innagural campaign and with a chance to muss up the conference divisional scenarios against Utah State and Boise in the next couple weeks this one will be a harbinger for future trouble. Power Pick: Utah State by 18.90 My Pick: Utah State 24-21 Line: Utah State -6.5
Memphis (20.22) at Temple (1.52) (1.59), 6:30 pm ESPNU, Log jam at the top of the AAC with 3-1 and Temple a half game back at 3-2. These teams are pretty much equal right now. Memphis is slightly better on offense and Temple is about the same bit better on defense. My system is a little more bullish on Memphis than I or the points per play but it should be a real good game no matter what. Power Pick: Memphis by 17.11 My Pick: Memphis 27-21 Line: Memphis -7.5
Editing Note: Anything above this line was in by 7:00 pm Tuesday
Saturday, November 8th,
#11 Georgia (55.26) at Kentucky (29.89) (3.70), 11:00 am ESPN, Georgia is still ranked 11th for some reason despite losing to both South Carolina (#49) and Florida (#39), who... for lack of a better term...are... not real good at the football thing. Kentucky is getting better but they ain't quite there yet. Power Pick: Georgia by 21.67 My Pick: Georgia 38-24 Line: Georgia -10
#13 Baylor (52.28) at #18 Oklahoma (62.44) (4.99), 11:00 am FOX Sports 1, Baylor heads to Oklahoma to regain some of the hype and much of what it lost in Morgantown. Boomer Sooner for their part hasn't looked nearly as good as they did the first half dozen or so weeks and needs a strong showing at home against the Bears. Power Pick: Oklahoma by 15.15 My Pick: Oklahoma 38-35 Line: Oklahoma -5.5
Iowa (43.30) at Minnesota (44.13), 11:00 am ESPN2, Yes a B1G matchup in Minneapolis as the loser is almost assuredly out of the Big Ten West race adn the winner needs some help and a win over Wisconsin to take the title. The winner of this game will show a lot of interest in Nebraska-Wisconsin next week. Also this game will be done by like 12:45 as both teams want to pound the rock. Power Pick: 4.50 My Pick: Iowa 31-27 Line: Iowa -1.5
#24 Duke (50.48) at Syracuse (32.50) (2.96), 11:30 am ESPN3, Duke heads to Syracuse and yeah Duke gonna win, ruin our dreams of 4-4 Coastal and have a big lead over the rest of the division. Power Pick: Duke by 15.02 My Pick: Duke 38-21 Line: Duke -3.5
Texas A&M (58.55) at #3 Auburn (82.89) (4.84), 2:30 pm CBS, Remember when everyone was so sure (me included) that A&M wasn't gonna have too tough of a transition post Manziel? Well the defense is still bad and the offense has had trouble keeping pace as Kenny Hill has come back down to earth. Heading to the plains isn't really the remedy you want in that situation and I'm not sure the Aggies have enough, well, anything to pull this one off. Power Pick: Auburn by 29.18 My Pick: Auburn 52-31 Line: Auburn -21.5
#10 Notre Dame (54.92) at #14 Arizona State (65.28) (3.80), 2:30 pm ABC, Don't think anyone would have predicted this as a power matchup this sesaon but here we are. A Notre Dame loss may slightly affect FSU's resume but Arizona State isn't a pushover and two top 15 losses aren't killer but isn't real good for the Golden Domers. I think Arizona State has too much offense for Notre Dame and just enough defense to cause troubles in the desert. Power Pick: 14.16 My Pick: Arizona State 31-28 Line: Arizona State -2.5
#20 West Virginia (28.25) at Texas (32.52) (5.33), 2:30 pm FOX Sports 1, West Virginia heads to Austin and barring a huge travel hangover will beat Texas by two scores. Texas is in major overhaul mode combined with major injury mode which combine for mild panic mode. Power Pick: Texas by 9.6 My Pick: West Virgina 38-20 Line: West Virginia -3.5
Georgia Southern (18.09) at Texas State (8.67) (2.01), 3:00 pm ESPN3, With Georgia Southern at 6-0 in conference and Texas State at 3-1 a Georgia Southern win means they go to 7-0 and only Louisiana Lafeyette at 4-0 has a shot to knock the king off his throne. This is all super unfortunate for Georgia Southern who because of transition rules can't go to a bowl game this season. Georgia Southern has been bestly on offense at .574 points per play compared to Texas State's .375. With relatively similar defenses Southerns ability to score will be the difference in this game. (GaSou 6-0, Tx St 3-1) Power Pick: Georgia Southern -7.41 My Pick: Georgia Southern 31-20 Line: Georgia Southern -12
Virginia (22.88) at #2 Florida State (78.08) (4.46), 5:30 pm ESPN, Virginia is pretty stout on defense but the couple of times I have watched them they throw way too many third down passes short of the stick even on 3rd and 3 and the likes. Florida State is by far the better team and even with flaws Winston is the difference for this year's Noles. Power Pick: Florida State by 59.66 My Pick: Florida State 34-13 Line: Florida State -19.5
#22 UCLA (75.79) at Washington (53.13) (4.08), 6:00 pm FOX Sports 1, Sometimes you have to say I don't know. I like Washington more than most but my numbers like UCLA big. The advantage I have is that I know how UCLA has played and won games that my system gives binary points for or against. I think UCLA is good but I think they are overrated and due for a fall. I'm going Washington close but I don't feel good about any part of that pick. Power Pick: UCLA by 18.58 My Pick: Washington 31-28 Line: UCLA -4.5
#25 Louisville (39.53) at Boston College (18.78) (2.85), 6:15 pm ESPN2, Ah, the away game against Boston College right after a closer than the final score loss to Florida State seems like a letdown spot. So naturally, I picked Louisville to win and cover because I'm an idiot. Power Pick: Louisville by 17.91 My Pick: Louisville 28-24 Line: Louisville -3.5
#9 Kansas State (40.05) at #7 TCU (35.57) (3.69), 6:30 pm FOX, Kansas State heads to Fort Worth and although Bill Snyder is a wizard I think my power ranks drastically underrate TCU. TCU for it's part need Boykin to pick his game up from where it was last week against West Virginia. I think the defenses are the story here but I think TCU will be able to hold Jake Waters and company in check while Boykin scores a couple late to make this a decisive Horned Frogs victory. Power Pick: Kansas State by .79 My Pick: TCU 48-27 Line: TCU -6
#6 Alabama (53.49) at #19 LSU (51.22) (5.10), 7:00 pm CBS, Oh ho ho, Les is in a position to fuck everything up. And I mean everything, he weakend Ole Miss for Auburn to take out of the picture and now he has the Tide in his sights. With a defense that is stiffening up and an offense that just needed time for freshman to grow into roles this looks like the LSU team we all expected. As for Alabama, well they may have changed coordinators but the offense looks as unspectacularily solid as usual but the defense hasn't quite gotten back to being elite. I think we see some Les magic late and bring on the Bayou chaos. Power Pick: LSU by 2.83 My Pick: LSU 31-28 Line: Alabama -6.5
#16 Ohio State (53.76) at #8 Michigan State (56.18) (4.53), 7:00 pm ABC, Ohio State heads to East Lansing to take on the "The Team Up North" State University. J.T. Barrett and the Buckeye offense have been better than during the Va Tech game they aren't a big play machine like the great Ohio State teams. The defense is stout, however, and with with Connor Cook quarterbacking the Spartans they will need to be. With a very good defense I don't see the Buckeyes doing much more than what they did at Penn State last week and see close but efficient Spartan win. Power Pick: Michigan State by 6.95 My Pick: Michigan State 27-23 Line: Michigan State -3.5
Colorado (19.84) at #12 Arizona (58.51) (3.44), 7:00 pm Pac-12 Network, Sorry Buffs, but no. Power Pick: Arizona by 42.10 My Pick: Arizona 45-23 Line: Arizona -16.5
#5 Oregon (83.15) at #17 Utah (44.65) (3.76), 9:00 pm ESPN, The desert of a four course meal of college football happens when the Ducks visit the Muss. Utah lost it's best offensive weapon last week but with their defense this may be the only game it effects them in all year. Oregon is getting healthy especially up front and guess what, it has done wonders for their efficiency. Oregon does what it always does and pulls away in the third quarter and Utah just doesn't have the weapons to mount the response. Power Pick: Oregon by 34.75 My Pick: Oregon 31-27 Line: Oregon -9
San Jose State (7.53) at Fresno State (12.32) (2.97), 9:30 pm CBSSN, With Nevada and San Diego State at 3-2 in the Mountain West West division this is an elimination game with Fresno State at 2-3 and San Jose State at 2-2. These are two teams with similar profiles. Profiles of moveable objects on defense and stagnant offenses. Fresno is at home and slightly favored by my system so we'll go Bulldogs and just keep watching Oregon-Utah. Power Pick: Fresno State by 7.7 My Pick: Fresno State 31-27 Line: Fresno State -1.5
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