Rambling Sports: 2015 Conference USA Preview

Conference USA almost had an undefeated team and a New Year’s six entrant last season but Marshall was upset in the conference championship game. There isn’t a team this year that stands out as an undefeated threat but there does seem to be a lot of offensive talent returning around the league.

Membership Changes

One of the last changes from the most recent realignment phase is the addition and move up of Charlotte to the FBS level. Charlotte’s program is in its infancy and makes this move much like Old Dominion the previous FBS newcomer to Conference USA. Charlotte will play a league schedule, but won’t be eligible for the post-season this year. One of the few conferences with a subtraction, the conference loses the UAB team after it was shut down earlier this year. I won’t talk much about that sham but it looks like the program will be back in a couple years. Lastly, Old Dominion is now a full member and post-season eligible.

Coaching Changes

No coaching turnover in the conference which is both a good and bad thing at the mid-major level. On the one hand you get conference continuity that allows programs to grow, but on the down side it means no one has performed at a high enough level to be poached by the power five conferences. For now it’s fine, but too many years of coaching stagnation and you have to wonder what’s going on.

Recruiting

The first thing you notice when looking at the recruiting levels in the CUSA is the utter dominance that Marshall has shown in recruiting. Marshall (-.11 SD) has been slightly below average nationally and the difference between them and the rest of the conference is the difference between #2 Southern Miss (-.52 SD) and #7 Middle Tennessee (-.86 SD). Southern Miss, Florida Atlantic (-.64 SD), Louisiana Tech (-.67 SD), Rice (-.74 SD), WKU (-.78 SD) and FIU (-.85) have all been pretty consistent with very little variance in recruiting results. FAU has vastly underperformed their talent and Southern Miss has been a mess since Fedora left for UNC. Rice has bounced back with current recruiting and WKU has outperformed their recruiting rank, both in conference and nationally. North Texas (-.97 SD) has started to show a little more life on the field and in recruiting, while the jump to FBS has clearly had a positive effect on Old Dominion (-1.16 SD) with averages on par with Southern Miss the last two seasons. UTSA (-1.23 SD) needs to put two solid classes together, as right now they only put up good recruiting numbers in odd numbered years. UTEP is consistently badand the only team to post all sub-100 point (247 composite ranks) classes in the last four year cycle. Charlotte has put together solid showings for their youth and situation and will be interesting to watch going forward as they didn’t see as big of a jump as Old Dominion had just prior to their FBS jump. Overall the talent advantage is Marshall’s, with the next teams all performing below their perceived talent levels. Old Dominion has a chance to shake things up with its deep recruiting base in Virginia and WKU will probably continue to outperform their ranking.

Team Previews

East

Marshall (East) | 13-1 (128) | 6 (N) | 68% | 5 | 59% | 61Doc Holliday | Hired 2010 | 40-25

We start off the East and the conference with the best team from 2015. And yes, I know they lost the championship game, but that is no reason to be stupid. Doc Hilliday is back for his sixth season at Marshall and, well, there’s work to be done.

On offense you start at QB and Rakeem Cato is gone. With him also leaves 3900 yards of passing, 40 TDs, and 609 rushing yards. Whew, that is a lot of slack to pick up. The good news. Doc has recruited well at the position, with three former three star recruits. Option one is junior Gunnar Holcombe (6’3”, 208) who played a touch in 2014 but didn’t jump off the page. Holcombe completed 12/21 passes for 119 yards which just won’t get it done. Options two and three are redshirt freshman three star Cole Garvin (6’1”, 210) and true freshman (6’6”, 212) also a three star recruit. I think I’d lean Garvin for my pick for the starter this season, but Holcombe has experience on the squad on his size. Whomever starts for the Herd will have one wonderful advantage, a trio of senior running backs. Led by Devon Johnson (6’1”, 246), who ran the ball 206 times at a rate of 8.6 yards per carry and 17 TDs. Johnson’s understudy, Steward Butler (5’9”, 192), rushed for 7.5 yards per carry on 107 rushes and was joined by 100 rush Remi Watson (5’11”, 196) who wasn’t too shabby at 5.5 yards per carry. Overall this trio accounted for around 3100 yards and 30 touchdowns. This trio will mentor high two star sophomore Tony Pittman (5’10”, 206) and freshman three star Delvin Weems (5’8”, 195) as they prepare to take over a very productive unit next season. Slot receiver Tommy Shuler, he of 134 targets and 1138 yards in 2014, will not be back in 2015. And while that leaves a hole, there is hope. Hope’s name is Hyleck Foster (5’10”, 191), a former three star recruit, Foster saw limited playing time but had 24 targets, of which he caught 75% and went for 10.6 yards per target. Foster reckons to make a big step up in his role in the offense but what about those around him? A pair of former four star sophomores return after solid 50 catch seasons each. Angelo Jean-Louis (6’0”, 184) and Deon-Tay McManus (6’2”, 228) return but will need to improve their catch rates, 42% and 52% respectively, in order to give the new quarterback the options he needs. On the upside Jean-Louis average 9.8 yards per target, while McManus went for 8.4. So three promising young wide receivers in an offense that isn’t afraid to use them. Let’s add some experience. The sage of the receiving corps will be Davonte Allen (6’2”, 201), a senior who had 40 targets last season also had some issues with completing targets (55% catch rate), but the jump off the page stat is his 13.6 yards per target. As we dig deeper into this supporting cast I’m starting to lose my worry about whomever starts for the Herd. The depth is fine, but WR is the place where you realize the recruiting advantage for Holliday and company. To go along with Foster, Jean-Louis, and McManus, you also have a three star sophomore, a three star redshirt freshman, and three, three-star freshmen. Overall talent doesn’t seem like too much of a problem at the skill positions. On the line, All-CUSA center is gone, but his replacement has 14 starts and All-CUSA RT Clint Van Horn (6’5”, 295) is back. Van Horn and two other starters return with 61 starts but will need some inexperienced star talent grow into roles. Here much like at WR there are four sophomores and a redshirt freshman who are former three stars. I think the line will be fine and certainly has room to grow from last year’s squad.

On the other side of the ball, let’s play round two of good news, bad news. Let’s start with the bad news, Marshall loses six of seven highest tackle producers from their front seven who played in at least 13 games. That seems back, and it’s certainly isn’t optimal, but remember good news isn’t far behind the bad. The good news, they also return nine players who played in at least 11 games last seasonand had at least 10 tackles. Alright, back down to the line on a micro level. Yes, the starting DT and both DEs are gone and with them 91.5 tackles, 31 TFLs (that hurts) including 14 sacks, and 8 forced fumbles. Alright yeah that’s a shit ton of production and that will certainly be hard to replace. One technique Jarquez Samuel (6’4”, 290) is back and he will be the rock on which this line is built. Samuel had 22 tackles, 5 for loss, and 1 sack. Oh, and the 290 pound tackle had an INT (FAT GUY INT). He will obviously have to increase some of his production but a senior 1 tech is a good place to start. Next to him at the three tech is a fellow senior, Steve Dillon (6’4”, 278). Dillon was obviously in the shadow of Rouse last season, but he saw time in 14 games and had 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. He may not rack up the 10.5/2.5 that Rouse had but he should be a fine replacement and a good place to start. Two defensive ends return after 14 games played last season, Joe Massaquoi (6’5”, 254) had 3 TFLs and 2 of those sacks, and Armonze Daniel (6’4”, 244) a former highly rated senior who only had 2 TFLs. Gary Thompson (6’1”, 258) only saw 9 games last season, but in those 9 games he had 3.5 TFLs and 2 sacks which out rate both other candidates, he’s the upside player with games played under his belt. There are five other DEs on the roster, 1 three star sophomore, 1 high two star redshirt freshman, and a trio of three star freshmen. Or as coaches call it, talented depth. Back to the inside, sophomore Tomell One (6’3”, 279) will be the primary back up at nose. Senior Ricardo Williams (6’5”, 260) had 3 TFLs but little other production. The recruiting trail brought a couple gifts in high two star recruits, Jason Smith (6’3”, 285) and Malik Thompson (6’6”, 275) will mostly be called upon to produce at least in a rotation in year one. So there’s depth outside, production or promise of production inside, and a nice batch of youngsters up front, but what’s coming back behind them. Three players with 14 games played are gone, including starters at MLB and WLB, who combined for 155 tackles, 24 TFLs, and 7.5 sacks. SLB D.J. Hunter (6’0”, 209) is back for an encore of his 53.5 tackles, 10 TFLs and 5.5 sacks from last season, and that’s a nice place to start. Joining Hunter is sophomore MLB Raheim Huskey (6’2”, 218), a non-ranked recruit who had 16.5 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, a pass breakup, and a forced fumble. That’s a nice freshman year in reserve and Huskey will take the reins of the defense and I don’t expect that poor of a drop off. That being said I’d be remised if I didn’t acknowledge the presence of Maryland transfer Shawn Petty (6’0”, 206). Petty may have a higher floor coming out of high school but I think his primary purpose will be to push Huskey to be even better this season. That leaves us with the battle for the starting spot at the will linebacker position. Evan McKelvey (6’2”, 231) is coming off a second ACL tear, one on each knee, which is a concern, but before his most recent injury in game five he had 17 tackles and 1.5 TFLs. If McKelvey isn’t able to go the starting job will most likely fall to Stefan Houston (6’3”, 215) who played in all 14 games as a sophomore, but he will need to do much better than his 12.5 tackles and 1 for a loss. Behind those two is three star freshman Marquis Couch (6’2”, 218) who has the build to step in and might just have to. The rest of the two deep is filled by a three star freshman, a former three star junior and an unranked redshirt freshman. The front seven should still be good but will be tested on the ground more often than not because… the secondary only loses 1 player. That one player is going to be missed, however, because Darryl Roberts leaves a 60.5 tackle, 18 passes defensed hole in the secondary. That being said, damn son this unit is fun. SS Taj Letman (6’2”, 189) returns for a senior campaign after a 70 tackle, 4 INT and 4 passes broken up. Two FS are back, A.J. Leggett (6’0”, 188) had 52 tackles, 1 TFL and 8 passes broken up, while Tiquan Lang (5’8”, 170) more than likely a nickel back, had 50.5 tackles, 2.5 TFLs and 8 passes broken up. At corner, Corey Tindal (5’9”, 183) is back and while the tackles are impressive (55) he made a greater impact with his 13 passes defensed. Tindal should be even more impactful because only 1 of those 13 passes defensed was an INT. The starter on the other side will come from a trio of corners who played in at least 12 games last season. Antavis Rowe (5’10”, 160), Rodney Allen (5’11”, 180), and Keith Baxter (6’0”, 195) are all back and combined for 5 passes broken up, but little impact in the running game. High three star sophomore Kendall Gant (6’3”, 199) played in 7 games as a freshman and should be a fine back up for Letman. A trio of former three stars are the backups at corner and another three star at safety rounds out the support group. To recap this secondary, it returns 10 INTs, 32 passes broken up, 7 TFLs, and 272.5 tackles. So yeah they’ll be fine.

Overall the defense will be great against the pass and good enough against the run to be really good once again. The skill positions are set for Cato’s successor to succeed right away and the line should be good but probably not as good as last season. And this should be by far the most talented team in Conference USA.

WKU (East) | 8-5 (101) | 8 (Y) | 77% | 8 | 75% | 61Jeff Brohm | Hired 2014 | 8-6

Jeff Brohm’s first year was successful and the last half of the year was downright awesome. They look like the best challenger to Marshall, and if the raw data hold through they might just be better.

Let’s start with the clear advantage Brohm and company have over Marshall. Quarterback Brandon Doughty (6’3”, 210). Doughty returns for his senior season after throwing for 4830 yards in 2014, including 49 TDs to 10 INTs. That was on 552 attempts with only 19 sacks and at an 8.2 yards per attempt. Joining Doughty in the backfield are a pair of backs who averaged over 5.5 yards per carry. First off is Leon Allen (6’0”, 235), a senior who had 272 rushes for 1542 yards at a 5.7 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns. Along with Allen, Anthony Wales (5’10”, 190) is back to reprise his role as the spell back who put up 6.3 yards per carry and 7.5 yards per carry when given good blocking. The last piece of the backfield is D’Andre Ferby (6’1”, 240), a three star redshirt freshman who should take a couple handful of carries before a backup role in 2015 and starter in 2016. Allen also was a major contributor to the passing game, I know a shock on an offense with 4800 passing yards, with 51 catches averaging 8.1 yards per target and an 86.4% catch rate. The top targeted receiver from 2014 is back. Jared Dangerfield (6’3”, 200) was targeted 95 times, caught 72.6% of his targets for 825 yards for an 8.7 yards per target average. It’s not much of a stretch to see 100 targets for Dangerfield, but who else will catch passes. Antwane Grant (6’1”, 195) will see an uptick in his targets as the second receiving option. Grant caught a little over 2/3 of his targets and averaged 8.3 yards per target. Joining Grant in the second tier of options will be Taywan Taylor (6’1’, 190) a junior who caught 79% of his targets for a ridiculous 13.5 yards per target and in a three man group of WRs, well, having a no one under 8 yards per target is pretty nifty. Behind these three players are Nicholas Norris (5’10”, 175) and TE Tyler Higbee (6’5”, 233) both averaged 10 yards per target. Outside of those five players, three star sophomore Nacarius Fant (5’9”, 170) should see more than one target this year. DeAndre Farris (5’10”, 180) a high two star redshirt freshman, Will Bush (5’11”, 190) a two star recruit and three star Quin Jernighan (6’3”, 200) a three star should make for nice youthful depth. The biggest question mark on the offense is the line. 2^nd team all-conference right tackle Cameron Clemmons is gone along with 13 game starter at C Derrick Stark. That being said, 71 starts return from the four other presumed starters, and there is plenty of size to fill out the starting five. So, the question mark is more of a maybe they’ll be slightly worse off, or not, who knows, probably not.

The offense has little to worry about and that usually means good things for the defense as far as field position is concerned. Everybody is back in the front four. And when I say everybody, I mean the first player missing from last season was a tackle who had the seventh most tackles. But I’m getting ahead of the depth chart. Let’s start with the non-UAB transfers, DE Gavin Rocker (6’2”, 245), DT Bryan Shorter (6’2”, 285), and DT Ge’Monee Brown (6’2”, 305). That trio of seniors combined for 91.5 tackles, 23 TFLs including 11 sacks. I mean that’s a nice place to start upfront. Joining them will be Derik Overstreet (6’2”, 250) a sophomore who played in 9 games last season while amassing 26 tackles, 3.5 TFLs and 2 sacks. The third addition to the tackle rotation will be Devante Terrell (6’0”, 295), a junior who played in all 13 games but wasn’t as disruptive (1.5 TFLs and 1 sacks) as Brown was last year. Adding disruption outside will be sophomore Tanner Reeves (6’4”, 230) who had 5 TFLs including 4 sacks. The depth includes senior UAB transfer Jontavious Morris (6’2”, 295), a trio of juniors who played in more than half the games, and a pair of high two star freshmen. Behind them, a duo of seniors return to hold down the linebacking corps. Nick Holt (6’1”, 230) is back to reprise his 86.5 tackle performance in 2014 that included 7 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. Joining Holt is Dejon Brown (6’3”, 225), who added 65.5 tackles, 8 for a loss and 2 sacks. Brown and Holt will be joined by some youth. Daeshawn Bertram (6’0”, 220) played in 11 games last season and was the most disruptive of the returning players with 2 TFLs, a sack, an INT, and a forced fumble. A pair of juniors add good depth but little pedigree. The most intriguing of the non-freshmen is T.J. McCollum (6’3”, 205) a UAB transfer and former high two star recruit who saw limited time for the Blazers as a freshman. A trio of high two star youngsters fill out the depth. Leaving DeVon Quincy (6’1”, 225) as the last player to look at here. Quincy has the best build of the group and as a three star recruit has potentially the biggest upside of the group. The secondary was the hardest hit of the units on defense with three of the top seven tacklers having left the program. That’s not to say that there isn’t talent and production returning. Starting with a pair of safeties. Juniors Branden Leston (6’3”, 215) and Marcus Ward (6’3”, 204) are a pair of big bodied safeties who led the secondary in tackles at 52 apiece. Leston was the more disruptive with 3 TFLs, a sack, and five passes defensed. The duo should be the building blocks of the secondary once again, playing aggressive and cleaning up what the front seven lets through. A pair of solid starters, and great names, return for their senior year at corner back. Wonderful Terry (5’10”, 180) and Prince Charles Iworah (5’11”, 193) combined for 14 passes defensed, 2 forced fumbles and 5.5 TFLs. The secondary is going to need help from the youngsters to be better than last year with a duo of sophomore safeties back and two fairly touted freshmen more than likely needing to provide depth and solid play early on.

Overall the secondary and defense as a whole are the biggest weaknesses that need addressing if they are to overtake Marshall. That being said this is a senior laden roster, with what should be an elite offense powered by Doughty, et al. They may fall just shy of Marshall but they will push them step for step all year.

Middle Tennessee (East) | 6-6 (105) | 6 (Y) | 64% | 7 | 77% | 77Rick Stockstill | Hired 2006 | 57-55

Stockstill’s career at MTSU has been mostly about average, but really has been marked by highs and lows. 2009 saw MTSU get to average nationally and then almost immediately dropped to extremely low standards. But enough of the past, on to the present.

Austin Grammer (6’2”, 205) is back and that’s quite the mixed bag. Grammer threw for 2557 yards on a 65.4% completion rate which are both fine numbers. Grammer also had 12 INTs to his 17 TDs, while taking 7.1% sack rate and a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt. That being said he’s the best option and some minor tweaks could make him a formidable starter. Grammer’s biggest strength and biggest impact on the offense will be as a runner. Grammer averaged 6.3 yards per carry on close to 100 carries and was the best per carry back on the roster. Outside of Grammer you have two fine, if not flashy options. Jordan Parker (6’1”, 222) had 128 carries in 2014 and he was a capable 4.3 yards per carry. Join Parker in the capable but unspectacular category was Shane Tucker (6’0”, 217) who averaged 5 yards a carry on 98 carries. Addto this group a trio of three star running backs Kamani Thomas (5’9”, 200) a sophomore, J’Vonte Herrod (5’11”, 215) redshirt freshman, and Ruben Garnett (5’9”, 175) who all should at least get a shot to add a spark to the rushing attack. In the receiving corps, leading rusher Ed’Marques Batties (6’0”, 197) is back for his senior season after a 62 target, 474 yard performance as a junior. He’s a solid option, with a 72.6% catch rate and 7.6 yards per target. In a horizontal passing game, in an offense based on the run this will do just fine for a lead receiver. The next best pass catcher was the aforementioned Tucker. Tucker caught 71.4% of his targets out of the backfield for a team leading 10 yards per reception. A pair of juniors, Terry Pettis (6’5”, 232) and Demetrius Frazier (5’10”, 212), are back as solid options, who were solid contributors on limited touches (8.9 yards per target on 27 targets and 8.7 yards per target on 19, respectively). Behind them there will be a call to the youngsters. There is a nice crop of three star recruits in the form of sophomore Jevontey Smith (6’2”, 205), redshirt freshmen Ty Clemons (5’11”, 179) and Richie James (5’9”, 170), and freshmen Isiah Upton (6’0”, 180) and Terell West (5’10”, 185). Clemons and West were the most highly touted of the group but all should add promise to the passing game. The offense depends on the run game and without explosiveness there, there are limits to the upside of the offense. That said, it shouldn’t be terrible and it should be pretty reliable. Half of the pair of 2^nd team all-conference tackles returns in the form of Darius Johnson (6’3”, 305). Along with Johnson, there returns 40 starts and the replacement at right tackle is a 6’7”, 330 pound behemoth of a junior in Hunter Rogers. The depth on the line is young and big and that portends good things for the future.

Middle Tennessee brings back a lot of depth up front on the opposite line as well. The defensive line loses their top tackler and worst tackler and, in what should be a “no shit” statement, one is more important than the other. Shubert Bastien leaves a 31.5 tackle, 10 TFLs and 5.5 sack hole in the line. The good news, everybody else is back. On the inside, three players return with size and experience. The starters will be Shaquille Huff (6’1”, 320) and Jimal McBride (6’2”, 325) are both former four star juniors in all 12 games last season. Huff had 5 TFLs and 2 sacks and McBride provided 4.5 TFLs and 2.5 sacks. They’ll be joined by Raynard Felton (6’4’, 286) who needs to add a little more bulk, but more importantly will need to improve on his 1 TFL last season. The other returning starter will be Steven Rhodes (6’3”, 256) who had 19.5 tackles, 3 for a loss and two sacks. The remaining starting spot is a mystery, the four players that played in games last season no one had more than 2 TFLs or a sack. Those players were seniors Alexandro Antoine (6’1”, 241) and Ykeem Wells (6’0”, 258), junior Chris Hale (6’4”, 274), and sophomore Jahmal Jones (6’3”, 238). They are all a bit unspectacular but they have the experience upper hand. Joining the fight for the job and the two deep are, high two star sophomores Ismael Aurismond (6’3”, 241) and Todney Evans (6’3”, 228), and three star redshirt freshman Darrius Liggins (6’4”, 234). So you get your choice. Talent without experience, or experience without disruption. The good news is that those first four players I mentioned should still have room to grow coming out of their sophomore year. So the front seven much like the running game has some promise but will be fine not special. So we move to the linebacking corps hoping for disruption and flash. In senior WLB T.T. Barber (6’1”, 229) we get that. Barber had 61 tackles, but more importantly 7.5 of those were for a loss, add in a sack, 2 INTs, a pass break up and 2 forced fumbles. Barber is the force to be reckoned with. Joining Barber in the starting line-up are MLB Cavellis Luckett (6’0”, 254) and SLB Trey Wafford (5’10”, 202). Luckett was the more disruptive of the two with 52 tackles, 3 TFLS, 2 sacks, 4 passes broken up and a forced fumble. Walford was a fine clean up man with 45.5 tackles, and was better dropping back (2 pass break ups) than playing in the backfield (1 TFL). The linebacking corps is more senior laden than any other group on the team. The two deep is two seniors, Quay Watt (6’0”, 214) and James Roberson (6’0”, 220), and sophomore D.J. Sanders. None did much disruption last year but they should be serviceable backups. The secondary follows the LB trend of senior leaders returning. Free safety Xavier Walker (6’4’, 212), strong safety Kevin Byard (5’11”, 226), and corner Jared Singletary (5’8”, 173) are all seniors. As a group they combined for 159 tackles, 6 for a loss, 9 INTs, 14 passes broken up and 4 forced fumbles. This group should be real fun to watch and a nice place to start on a squad that lost a bunch of corners. There are only three corners left on the roster with playing experience and even that’s a bit of a stretch. Jordan Frost-Dixon (5’11”, 205), Jamarcus Howard (6’0”, 185), and Darryl Randolph (5’11”, 183) all played but they only combined for 10.5 tackles in their combined 22 games played. That leaves room for two former three star recruits, Michael Minter (6’0”, 182) a sophomore, and Dontavious Heard (6’1”, 190) a junior will need to make an impact if a shallow unit is going to hold up. The last notable secondary player is junior FS Chris Brown (6’1”, 188) how had 21 tackles and 2 passes broken up.

The overall theme for this year’s Middle Tennessee team is good with limited upside. The good news is there are a lot of younger players with experience that have a chance to grow into more disruptive roles, but the back seven is going to have a boat load of attrition at year’s end.

FIU (East) | 4-8 (90) | 8 (Y) | 79% | 8 | 76% | 61Ron Turner | Hired 2013 | 47-80 (5-19)

Alright we all thought the firing of Mario Cristobal was a mistake and that the hiring of Illinois castoff Ron Turner was hilarious and, well, it still is but it didn’t turn out as bad as it could have. Turner’s first season was bad, but improvement shown through during last year’s 4-8 campaign. There’s hope and a bunch of returning starters and most importantly, hope.

Alex McGough’s (6’3”, 215) had a rough freshman campaign, or you know a normal freshman campaign. McGough completed 50.4% of his attempts, 14:10 TD to INT rate, 9.3% sack rate and 4.9 yards per attempt. That isn’t pretty, but FIU had to force the issue and in a lost offensive season it gave McGough experience that will hopefully be of use to him as he enters his second season. If it all blows up in Ron Turner’s face, well, he’s done a good job of recruiting back up options. If McGough has had his confidence ruined, well we’ll just try again, with one of a trio of fairly highly touted freshmen. Luke Medlock (6’1”, 197) is a high two star redshirt freshman, Christian Alexander (6’3”, 205) a three star from this past recruiting class, and Maurice Alexander (6’0”, 175) also from this past class. Christian Alexander was the highest touted of these three and has the most prototypical size. Turner might be hesitant to go back to the true freshman well which would suggest this is McGough or Medlock’s job. The running backs are young and fine, but will need to increase their explosiveness to make this offense click. Three backs had 130 yards in their last season in the backfield. Alex Garnder (5’9”, 192), a former three star recruit, had 139 carries last season for 4 yards a carry. He did the best job of taking good blocking opportunities, but wasn’t anything spectacular as a frosh. Senior, Anthon Samuel (5’11”, 200), had 132 carries last season, for 4.4 yards per carry, and 5 TDs to Gardner’s 1. Samuel has limited upside, but is the big bodied back. Silas Spearman III (5’8”, 187) had 132 carries in 2013. He wasn’t great, leading to a 2.8 yards per carry average. McGough was useful with a 4.3 yards per carry season but he put the ball on the ground 10 times, losing 4, which adds just one more thing he’s going to need to work on in his sophomore year. Samuel’s replacement as the big back will be Napoleon Maxwell (6’0”, 203), who put up an impressive 4.6 yards per carry on 55 carries, but he’ll will have his work cut out trying to steal carries from Samuel. Optimism for McGough is the way to go, and I truly believe whomever wins the job will be better than last season, but they’re going to need to gel with a completely revamped receiving corps. Last year’s leading receiver Jonnu Smith (6’3”, 230) is back after a 61 catch 688 yard performance that saw him gain 8.2 yards per target. Smith will be the rock of the QB starter and a nice option and security blanket in a sea of new that is the receiving corps. Sophomore Dennis Turner (5’11”, 175) is back as the only receiver with greater than 20 targets or 10 receptions and it’s not a promising look for the former three star. Turner only caught 57.1% of targets and those targets only gained 4.5 yards per target. The receivers that should have the biggest impacts are new additions. Juwan Caesar (6’5”, 219) is a former high three star recruit, who came over from Michigan State and should make an instant impact. Alongside Caesar, three star true freshman Anthony Jones (5’11”, 190) will need to play well early for any offensive development. A pretty meh line stays meh, but there’s no one under 290 on the depth chart and five players over 300. There are 60 starts returning, and the line shouldn’t be worse than last season.

Disruption, is one of the best tools a defensive can provide for the defense as a whole and the FIU line had that in spades last season. The players who return in the front four combined for 35 TFLs, 17.5 sacks, 5 passes broken up, 6 forced fumbles, and 2 fumble recovers. Leading the way are senior ends, Michael Wakefield (6’3”, 254) and Denzell Perine (6’3”, 256). Wakefield had 14.5 TFLs and 8 sacks and Perine joined in for 9.5 and 6.5. Wakefield also added active hands, blocking 3 passes and forcing 4 fumbles. Behind those two on the edges, are a duo of three star freshmen, a high two star redshirt freshman, and a junior who saw no playing time last season. On the inside four players who saw time in at least 11 games last season return. Lars Koht (6’5”, 283), a senior, had 21.5 tackles, 3 for a loss, and 1.5 sacks and is joined by Darrian Dyson (6’4”, 296) who had 4 TFLs. Joining them are juniors, Imarjaye Albury (6’0”, 277) who had 3.5 tackles and 1.5 sacks, Leonard Washington (6’0”, 305) .5 TFLs, and Marques Cheeks (6’3”, 284). Cheeks has had rave reviews in spring and certainly has the build to create havoc, while Koht and Albury probably line up at the 3 tech, while Dyson and Washington are the 1 techs. This is an experienced unit that is going to get great production from the ends and hopefully increased production from the foursome inside. Behind a front four with upside, is a linebacking corps where everybody is back. Five players saw time in all 12 games and seven where in at least 5. Senior Davison Colimon (6’1, 217) was second in the group with 40 tackles, but what sets him apart were his 8 TFLs and 4 sacks. Along with Colimon, sophomore Anthony Wint (6’0”, 224) returns after a 9 game freshman season in which he had 38 tackles and a forced fumble. If he can play the full season Wint will be the best linebacker on the team. Rounding out the starters is the leading tackler from last season. Treyvon Williams (5’11”, 229) had 42.5 tackles a sophomore and a respectable 4.5 TFLs and a sack. Wher Colimon will be a disruption, Williams will be a cleanup man who plays downhill to the ball. Jordan Guest (6’4”, 221) and Luis Rosado (6’2”, 234) had 28.5 and 27.5 tackles respectively in 2014 and a couple TFLs and will be a nice experienced depth. Behind that quintet, are a trio of young high two star recruits and Vontarius West (5’11”, 195) who needs to bulk up a touch headed into his sophomore campaign, but the former three star would bolster a unit that’s already solid. Both starting safeties are gone and with them solid production, but there’s experience and talent returning and q nice group of production that should limit the drop-off. Four players will make up the core of the secondary this season. Safety Jordan Davis (6’1”, 218) is the lynchpin. Davis had 34 tackles last season, 3 passes broken up, and a forced fumble. With an increased role he should fill the hole left by Demarkus Perkins and his 57.5 tackles and 4 passes defensed. The other three players are corners. Richard Leonard (5’9”, 189) greatly affected the game last season. The undersized corner had 12 passes defensed and 2 forced and recovered fumbles in 2014. With the pass rush returning he should be able to be aggressive again. The other two corners are big bodied players. Both Jeremiah McKinnon and Wilkenson Mytil, are both 6’0”, 195, but McKinnon had 32.5 tackles and 7 passes defensed to Mytil’s 14 and 4. The other safety will be a competition of sophomores between, Shemarke Spence (5’9”, 182), Niko Gonzalez (5’11”, 181), and Vontarius West (5’11”, 195). Spence is undersized, Gonzalez played in all 12 games, and West is the most highly touted. This all adds up to an intriguing and hopefully productive camp battle. The rest of the depth is high two star freshmen and a pair of three stars.

The offense is young and has room to grow, if quarterback is settled. The front four and the back four are experienced and elder laden and should improve a bit over last season. Linebacker should be a place of growth and there’s a decent amount of talent waiting in the wings. Overall, Ron Turner might have a little something, something going on in Orlando.

Old Dominion (East) | 6-6 (110) | 8 (N) | 63% | 5 | 51% | 66Bobby Wilder | Hired 2009 | 52-20

Editor's Note: Old Dominion is written by the Dominion state resident Andy Kriha

Despite living less than 7 miles by car (3.5 miles if I were a crow) from Old Dominion’s football stadium for the past two years, everything I know about the team comes from the terrible television commercials they showed about how excited they were to join the FBS last year and shit I found on Wikipedia about ten minutes ago. Old Dominion refers to the fact that the school used to be under the dominion of the King of Great Britain well over two hundred years ago. This whole area seems to still be in denial that we are no longer colonies of that grey, damp island and instead are now the best, freest country on Earth (no thanks to some other shit they did in the Civil War) #Murica. The original incarnation of the Monarchs (not the butterfly, although that would be more intimidating) football team was in the 1930s when the school was a two year school known as the Norfolk Division of the College of William and Mary (named for King William and Queen Mary of Scotland, the less free country that is still ruled by the grey, damp mothership). The most notable achievement of this team before disbanding in 1941 was when they accidentally played the University of Miami (FL) after an invitation meant for the main campus of William and Mary was mistakenly delivered to Norfolk. In the early 2000s, Old Dominion administrators noticed that alumni weren’t returning to campus for visits after graduating. This is likely for one of three reasons: 1) They don’t have Harry’s Chocolate Shop, 2) They don’t have the Neon Cactus, 3) Norfolk has literally nothing except a bunch of obnoxious kids with large pickup trucks straight out of high school who now have access to lots of guns because our military thinks that’s a good idea. The administrators ignored these reasons and decided it was because of a lack of having a football team. So, after a 67 year hiatus, the Monarchs resumed football operations in time for the 2009 season as an FCS independent. In 2011 they joined the Colonial Athletic Association and then in 2014 jumped up to the FBS level as the newest member of CUSA. With one year of CUSA action under their belts, the Monarchs enter the season with a remarkable perfect record against four of their conference foes. They also have lost every game ever played against another four, and have never played the remaining four. With Bobby Wilder returning for his 7th season, the Monarchs look to build on their 0.500 debut. They have one of the best rosters I’ve ever seen in the two years I’ve been researching schools for Brock’s blog, as the roster is sortable by number, name, position, height, weight, and year. Not even Alabama can match that level of roster functionality. Look for redshirt freshman running back Latrell Sandifer to be the teams MVP. At 5’7” and 153 pounds he’s a full foot shorter and 117 pounds lighter than his biggest offensive lineman. Compared to the men who will be blocking the view of opposing defenses, Sandifer literally looks like a lego man and should be able to penetrate the holes beneath his opponents legs and get behind them before they even know what happened. The Monarchs have two dates circled on their calendar: 9/19 for a home game against the ACC’s NC State and 10/3 for a road tilt against conference foe Marshall. Picking up a win in either of those matches could give them the momentum they need to bulldoze every remaining opponent on their schedule. That said, I think they lose both of those games while winning their remaining non-conference games and posting their second straight 4-4 conference record with the wins coming in four straight weeks against Charlotte, Florida International, Western Kentucky, and as much as I hate to say it, my favorite CUSA school, UT-San Antonio (Go Roadrunners! Remember the Alamodome!). 

My Prediction: Regular Season – 7-5 (4-4), Postseason – 21-17 Win over Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Florida Atlantic (East) | 3-9 (89) | 6 (Y) | 58% | 6 | 58% | 51Charlie Partridge | Hired 2014 | 3-9

The header for Bill Connelly’s column (go read them all, the articles, not just the headers) says it all. “Recruiting strong, now what about results?”

So here we are, Jaquez Johnson (6’1”, 225) is back for his senior season and he was fine last season, 17 touchdowns to 5 INTs, only 4.5% sack rate, but his 6.5 yards per attempt left something to be desired. Johnson will be pushed by three star freshmen Jason Driskel (6’2”, 210) and Daniel Parr (6’3”, 190). Johnson’s saving grace may be his production on the ground, where he had 5.7 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns. The running backs have some nice choices for whomever is at the helm. Jay Warren (6’0”, 195) is back after 121 rushes at 4.7 yards per carry. The spark this offense needs may be Greg Howell (6’1”, 205) who on 50 carries last season, averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. Howell needs to take a step in his sophomore year at taking what his line gives him but he’s the upside play here. To bolster this unit even more is highly touted freshman Trey Rodriguez (5’10”, 185). At wide receiver three of the top four receivers from last season are gone, but the good news is… TALENT. The lone returning starter is Jenson Stoshak (6’1”, 195), a senior, who had 7.9 yards per target last season, but needs to up his 58.5% catch rate if he is to become a consistent threat. Kalib Woods (6’3’, 182) should slide in at the Z as a sophomore. Woods had 31 targets last season for 7.2 yards per target and was better at hauling in targets than the man he replaced but still needs to do better than a 51.6% catch rate. Woods is a former three star recruit. The rest of the receivers are conjecture. High two star sophomore Kamrin Solomon (6’2”, 196) averaged 9.3 yards per target on 3 targets and should be in the fight for the third starting spot. The good news, is there are three freshmen who had three star grades and a fourth with a high two star rating. At TE, sophomore Nate Terry (6’6”, 210) or sophomore Dustin Bowens (6’5”, 255) will try to replace Alex Deleon’s 46 targets and 6.4 yards per target from last season. The line may be the strength of the offense. Four starters are back with a combined 50 starts amongst them. This should be a solid base to build upon the running game, and allow the passing game to blossom.

The entirety of the line is back and with them good disruption and a lack of size. Trevon Coley (6’2”, 300) had 37 tackles, 6.5 TFLs and 4 sacks. These are fine numbers as a nose in a 3-4 but in a four man front he needs to be more disruptive for this line to be good. Around him, the entire two deep at DE is back. Foremost among the returners is Trey Hendrickson (6’4”, 250). Hendrickson had 8.5 TFLs, including 5 sacks. At only 24.5 tackles, Hendrickson needs to be much better against the run in a 4-2-5 for this defense to work. Yes, that’s a theme here, the entirety of the front four needs to be so much better against the run. Robinson Eugene (6’5”, 266) and Haiden Nagel (6’4”, 230) both added 2 sacks, but only had 5 TFLs total. Shane Ogbonda (6’4”, 290) could move inside to the three technique but he hasn’t shown enough for much hope no matter where he’s playing. There are only two spots of hope that I really see from the rest of the players who saw game action last year. Those two bright spots are Ray Ellis (6’1”, 260) and Brandin Bryant (6’3”, 290). Ellis saw six games as a freshman and had a sack, he’s going need to be a bigger force in the run game but at least he has room to grow. Bryant played in 5 games but he had 2.5 TLFs including 2 sacks and at least that’s something. There isn’t much help coming so this group will need to evolve in a hurry for any success. The linebackers are young, but they lose Andrae Kirk (77.5 tackles, 10.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, and 8 pass breakups) and those are tough shoes to fill. Robert Relf (6’3”, 220) and Jarrad Ward (6’0”, 215) are back but neither flashed the playmaking potential of Kirk to clean up the lines messes. Three freshmen have three star grades and will most likely need to step into big roles if there is any hope for this front six to improve and play to an average level. Half the secondary is gone, and it was good pass defense secondary. D’Joun Smith is in the NFL along with FS Christain Milstead. The two of them combined for 91 tackles, 16 passes defensed, and 2 forced fumbles. Sharrod Neasman (6’0”, 198), Raekwon Williams (5’11”, 174), and Anthony Hamilton (5’10”, 190) are back and they had 87.5 tackles, 8 passes defensed, and a forced fumble. Joining them are a gaggle of three star freshmen. I mean, they are literally all three star freshmen. There are 10 freshmen (true or redshirt) and they are going to determine this season on defense with the freshmen linebackers. I’ll highlight the two highest rated, who are also safeties. Marquese Dudley-Gordon (6’0”, 188) who should slot in as the strong safety and Jalen Young (5’11”, 175) who should slot in at the free safety position and round out the starting five.

The recruiting is great but the impact is next year. The offense will be fine and the overall the talent level will keep them ahead of Charlotte. The defense is looking at a great variance but the line will hold them back as the back seven grows into something really exciting.

Charlotte (East) | 5-6 (FCS) | 9 (Y) | 88% | 10 | 82% | 90Brad Lambert | Hired 2012 | 10-12

Charlotte enters the FBS ring with two seasons under their belts. Both have been 5-6 campaigns, and almost everybody comes back. The problem overall is a lack of talent and lack of top results against higher level competition. There are positives to this position that should show up after a growing up year and before the roster is senior laden.

Quarterback brings an interesting dynamic. Matt Johnson (6’3”, 230) had 225 attempts last year to Lee McNeill’s (6’2”, 200) 123. Johnson had the better TD:INT ratio (13:8 to 6:3), sack rate (2.6% to 4.7%), and yards per attempt (8.3 to 7.2). McNeill had the better completion percentage (58.5% to 52%). Both are juniors this season, both have major flaws. That leaves the door open for three star redshirt freshman Brooks, Barden (6’2”, 180). Barden is an unknown, but considering the performance of the older players and the fact that Charlotte should be looking to the future means that Barden may be the best option. Johnson cements his separation from McNeill as a runner with 7.2 yards per carry to McNeill’s 4.3 and three times as many attempts. The feature in the backfield is Kalif Phillips (5’10”, 205) a big bodied back, who rushed for 1400 yards, on 6.3 yards per carry, and 20 touchdowns. Some of that may regress just a touch moving up a level but he should be just fine against greater competition. Add in Damarrell Alexander (5’10”, 165), a senior who had 200 yards on 36 carries should be good enough, but the depth is seriously lacking and may require a position change from someone before the season and another recruiting class can fill those spots. Austin Duke (5’9”, 160) returns to the slot after a monster season in 2014. Duke caught 79 of 119 targets for 1373 yards for 11.5 yards per target. Again, much like Phillips we should see a little bit of a dip but that’s really good production no matter who you are playing. The only other player on last year’s team with over 50 targtes was Trent Bostick (6’0”, 205). Botick is a bigger outside type, who caught north of 60% of his targets but at only 6.8 yards per target was fine but could be improved upon. The nice thing is there are a trio of young receivers who at least give hope based on small target numbers last season. Sophomores T.L. Ford II (6’3”, 175), Chris Montgomery (5’10”, 180) and Juwan Foggie (6’2”, 190) all have size (either height or weight) and yards per targets of at least 7.5. Ford had 27 targets that went for 8.2 a clip, Montgomery only had 5 targets but averaged a sure to regress 16, and Foggie had a reception for 15 yards (7.5 per target). And yes I know that those are ridiculously small sample sizes but with a young program all you need is hope. Add in Workpeh Kofa (6’2”, 195), a former three star recruit, true frosh TE Michael Holmes (6’4”, 230) also a three star, and high two star Alex Barrow (5’11”, 170) and the skill group around whomever starts for Charlotte has a young semi-talented group to work with. Add 90 returning starts along for a line who have another year to gel and you have a nice base for an offense in their new conference. Oh and did I mention they enter FBS with size up front. Of the guys with starts to their names they average 6’3.5”, 299 lbs plenty big enough to have an impact at the FBS level.

The defensive coordinator is the disgraced former Texas Tech coordinator Matt Wallerstedt. Not the greatest claim to fame but well worth the risk for Charlotte as his tenure at Tech was short. As with this whole team there is experience to work with. The line is composed of 8 juniors and a sophomore and everyone asw game action last season. The other good news is the size is good once again. Five players at 270 or higher and no one smaller than 245. The best set of disruptors are the nose tackles. Larry Ognujobi (6’3”, 290) is back as the leading tackler up front. Ognujobi had 39 tackles, but his impact was 11.5 TFLs, 5 sacks, and two passes batted down. His backup, Tanner Fleming (6’1”, 290) had only 17 tackles, but 7 of those were TFLs and a sack. So there’s big bodies in the middle with good production and disruption. At the five techniques, Mark Pettit (6’4”, 245), Brandon Banks (6’3”, 280), and James Middleton (6’4”, 270) are all back after having 22 tackles or more last season. Pettit is a built a bit slighter and it showed in his disruption. Pettit had 7 TFLs, 3 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles to 3/1/0 for Banks, and Middleton 2.5/.5/0. Banks for his part was good at disrupting passing lanes with 4 passes broken up. There wasn’t much in the way of production from the rest of the group but they bring experience and hopefully a touch of production if forced into action. At linebacker, for the first time on this roster, youth rose to the top last season. The top three inside linebackers were all freshmen last season and the starters were the top tackle getters on the roster. Dustin Crouser (6’2”, 220) and Karrington King (5’11”, 215) are those players and they had 62 and 61.5 tackles last season. Crouser was the drop ILB, he had 5.5 TFLs but his real impact came in the pass game where he had 2 INTs, 3 passes broken up, and 3 forced fumbles. King was a force coming down hill, with an additional 5.5 TFLs, and 3 sacks, to go with a pass break up and a forced fumble. On the outside, Daquan Lucas (5’10”, 205) and Jalen Holt (6’4”, 230) where active against the run with 36 and 30 tackles respectively. Lucas was the more disruptive of the pair with 8 TFLs and a sack to Holt’s 2.5 and 1. As a whole the returning unit combined for 21.5 TFLs, 5 sacks, 4 INTs, 7 pass breakups, and 5 force fumbles. The two deep is filled with three former three star recruits, headlined by sophomore ILB Jordan Starnes (6’3”, 220) who played in all 11 games last season. As we get to the secondary, there’s a dichotomy, the top three tacklers are back, but more importantly that trio brings 28 passes defensed (5 INT, 23 pass breakups) back. After that there are 5 pass breakups on the two deep and no more than 20 tackles by any one player. Brandon Dozier (6’0”, 200) returns at safety after an impressive 69 tackle, 1 interception, and 11 pass breakups by last season. Dozier will be the senior leader on this defense and is joined by a nice pair of corners. Tank Norman (5’11”, 175) and Greg Cunningham Jr. (6’2”, 185) are back with 91.5 tackles combine, and 8 passes defensed (1 INT, 7 pass breakups) for Norman and 8 (3 INT, 5 pass breakups) for Cunningham Jr. There isn’t much depth behind them, which means sophomores Markevis Davis (6’2”, 195) and Nick Halmon (5’10”, 190), and freshmen Denzel Irvin (5’11”, 165) and Nafees Lyon (5’10”, 180) are going to need to be impactful to make this secondary rotation effective.

Now for the bummer news, I really like what’s coming back but all the production was against much weaker competition than they will face overall this season. I think this all adds up to a 2-3 win season with a solid offense and a defense that will have flashes but probably needs another year of experience to be a bowl eligible team in Conference USA.

West

Louisiana Tech (West) | 9-5 (78) | 7 (N) | 81% | 5 | 61% | 47Skip Holtz | Since 2013 | 100-84 (13-13)

Alright, we start off the west with Skip Holtz and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. Holtz has been pretty good in his career record-wise but he has the feel of the college coaching equivalent of a three true outcome hitter in baseball. Holtz either wins a bunch of games or on games, and that stretches back a long way. That being said he should have a pretty good chance to continue to ride high in C-USA West.

81% of the yards are returning on offense, which means that the glaring weakness here is QB. Cody Sokol was a welcome transfer addition to the team and helped to elevate the offense. That leaves this team with a competition, between, Jeff Driskel (6’4”, 234), a transfer from Florida, and Ryan Higgins (6’2”, 208). Driskel is a known commodity to college fans who watched him flounder in the suck that was the Florida offense. Driskel was a highly touted QB, but was never able to click for the Gators. Higgins saw little time last year, but averaged 10 yards a completion in 2013, but only completed 59% of his passes and had a 2 to 1, INT to TD ratio. If either can show the potential seen as recruits the offense should be fine. If not, well, there are three former three star freshmen on the roster and Holtz should probably pull the trigger on one of them instead of sticking with a known underachiever. Whomever starts at QB, HAND THE DAMN BALL TO DIXON. Kenneth Dixon (5’10”, 212) will be the corner stone on which the 2015 Bulldogs will be built. Dixon had 1299 yards in 2014, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, with 22 touchdowns. The only real downside is 5 fumbles but in an option offense that’s not unusual. Dix should see his 254 rush workload stay similar if not increase a bit. Backing up Dixon is sophomore Jarred Craft (6’0”, 215). Craft was fine in his 83 carries, averaging 3.5 yards a carry, but it’s his 6.5 highlight yards per opportunity that make him an intriguing second. That means that when the line gave him five he averaged 11. If Craft can become more consistent on all carries this should be a monster running game no matter who is paired up in the backfield. Add in Blake Martin (5’10”, 196) and his 6.3 yards per carry and you have a great place to build a rushing attempt. Add to the support for the QB a receiving corps with three of the top five receivers, and there’s hope here. Those three receivers, bring back 1917 yards at a 9.09 yards per target from 2014. Carlos Henderson (5’11”, 185) is the most exciting of the group. Henderson only had 47 targets last season, but he caught 61.7% of those targets for 12.1 yards per target. With an increased role he might see that average dip a bit but he will be a great downfield threat for whomever starts. Trent Taylor (5’8”, 175) is the leading receiver back from 2014. Taylor had 97 targets, 834 yards with 8.6 per target, and a 66% catch rate. Taylor was a sure handed target and should be a great safety net once again. The last of the trio is Paul Turner (5’11”, 190). Turner was the least explosive of the trio at 7.7 yards per target, but he caught 62.7% of those passes. This is a great base to build off of and a group that produced very well. Add the impact of Dixon, who caught almost 70% of his 43 targets last year, for 9 yards a target out of the backfield and well you shouldn’t fail with this receiving corps. The two deep is relatively talented with former high two star sophomores, Marlon Watts (6’2”, 175) and Marcus Gaines (5’6”, 150), and a trio of three star freshmen you have a receiving corps ready to produce and succeed. On the line, six players have at least 2 starts under their belt, but they are going to need to gel quickly and perform better for there to be true consistency on offense.

On the other side of the ball, there is a lot of work to be done to make sure there isn’t a major drop off from last year’s stellar defense. The line loses five of the top eight tacklers from last season. The biggest loss is Houston Bates who had 16 TFLs including 10 sacks, an INT, 2 passes broken up and a forced fumble. The good news, Vernon Butler (6’3”, 309) is back after a 45 tackle season in which he had 13 TFLs and a sack. Butler will need to continue to be a force in the middle. Joining Butler from last year’s starting roster is DE Vontarrius Dora (6’4”, 253). Dora had 20 tackles in 10 games, but he also had 6.5 TFLs and 4 sacks. There is reason to hope about the other returning linemen. Aaron Brown (6’1”, 270) played in 11 games and only had 11 tackles, but 3.5 of those where for a loss and 1.5 sacks. If he can extrapolate those numbers in a more expanded this season he should pick up the slack left by the departures. The other really intriguing returner who had a limited role is sophomore DE Deldrick Canty (6’2”, 250). Canty had 8 tackles in 10 games last season as a freshman, but 3 were for a loss, including 2 sacks. So there are upside in young returners alongside the two senior returning starters. Recruiting also leaves reasons for hope. Of the six underclassmen on the roster without playing experience you have five three stars and a high two star recruit. If the line is going to hold up those six players are going to need to be impactful in supporting roles in the two deep if the defense is too hold up reasonably well compared to last season. As we move the linebackers, well every starter is gone, but, there is hope. Yes, the three leading tacklers are gone, but three players return after seasons with 28 tackles or more returning and five have at least 12 and played in at least 13 games. Nick Thomason (6’1”, 237) should be the starting MLB and had 40.5 tackles, 7 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, and 2 INTs. He will need to be the best player on the field. C.J. Cleveland (6’1”, 197) will most likely be the strongside backer. Cleveland racked up 34 tackles in 12 games but wasn’t a huge force in the backfield and will need to play downhill and behind the line better in 2015. Rounding out the starters, or at least camp starters, is Beau Fitte (6’0’, 217). Fitte had 28.5 tackles in 13 games with a TFL, but he had 3 pass breakups and should be useful in the pass game once again. Russel Farris (5’11”, 215) had 17.5 tackles as a freshman in 14 games and figures to at least be a very good two deep player. Behind them there are five high two star freshmen who will need to at least push the starters as the front seven rebuilds with great hope for the defensive future. The secondary will be the stable force for the defense. Much like the front seven, there is a lot of good promising talent (four three star recruits) but there is a lot of talent returning as well. We’ll start in the back end of the secondary with safeties Kentrell Brice (5’11”, 198) and Xavier Woods (5’11”, 188). Brice had 75.5 tackles including 4 sacks and 4 forced fumbles, but he was also a beast in the passing game with 2 INTs and 5 pass breakups. Woods was equally beastly, with 61.5 tackles and 3 forced fumbles, but was even better against the pass with 6 INTs and 7 passes broken up. A pair of senior corners continues the experience trope. Adairius Barnes (5’11”, 186) returns after 4 TFls, 5 INTs and 9 pass breakups and is joined by Bryson Abraham (5’9”, 174) who was more active in the backfield (6.5 TFLs), but still had 9 passes defensed. Add in an experienced two deep at safety and two corners who had at least 10 games played last season.

Overall the offense has the pieces to be very good again given competent quarterback play. Again feed Dixon and the offense should at worst be fine. On defense there is a need for a bunch of youngsters to step up in the front seven, to offset loses and prop up very good returning starters. The secondary will need to cope with the losses but should be very good once again.

Rice (West) | 8-5 (99) | 6 (Y) | 73% | 4 | 48% | 66David Bailiff | Hired 2007 | 69-68 (48-53)

Rice is a terrifically difficult job but Bailiff has done a good job of bringing it back to a high point it has reached at a few other times in their history. The question as always will be, how long the high lasts and how far the fall will be. Those questions are for another day and a different article. For our purpose let’s turn our attention to the 2015 team.

The good news is starting QB Driphus Jackson (6’0”, 210) is back. The bad news, he completed under 60% of his passes, and took way too many sacks at a 7.5% rate. The yards per attempt were fine at 7.5, but not great, and his 3:1 TD to INT ratio is a real good sign. So it’s a true mixed bag with Jackson, inaccurate but it didn’t bite him, he took too many sacks but he averaged 5.9 yards per carry. For a run dominant offense you could do much worse. If Jackson falters or gets hurt, Tyler Stehling (6’5”, 215) is there and he flashed a 63.2% completion percentage, 5% sack rate, and 7.7 yards per attempt. So the QB position should be fine if unspectacular. The future is bright too, with three former three star recruits waiting in the wings. We noted Jackson’s 5.9 yards per attempt, which led the backfield in explosiveness. Joining Jackson, are two backs junior backs who saw at least 125 rushes. Jowan Davis (5’7”, 200) had 245 carries for 956 yards and 6 touchdowns, for 3.9 yards per carry. Joining Davis is, Dari Dillard (5’10”, 205) who had 652 yards on 134 carries, 11 touchdowns and 4.9 yards per carry. Dillard will probably even out those carries this season off an 11 touchdown year, but even with an increased load, he doesn’t add an explosive option to the backfield. The explosiveness factor will have to come from one of Samuel Stewart (5’9”, 200) and Nahshon Ellerbe (5’9”, 190). Stewart is a former three star redshirt freshman, and Ellerbe is a former three star true freshman. If they can add an explosive element, this offense adds a dimension it didn’t have last season. Two of the top three receivers are gone, but everyone else is back. The biggest issue will be the replacement of not only the over 1400 yards, but the 10.3 and 11.3 yards per target from the two lost receivers. The explosiveness isn’t going to come from returning senior Dennis Parks (6’2”, 195). Parks had 389 yards for 6.8 yards per target, but he only caught slightly over 50% of his targets and wasted too many opportunities. The remaining returnees all had under 50 targets. The most exciting returning option is James Mayden (6’2”, 190). Mayden only had 17 targets, but he averaged 13.5 yards on those targets. He will need to do a better job of consistently hauling in those target (41.2% catch rate) but if he’s going to be that explosive you’re going to live with some drops. Zach Wright (6’1”, 200) saw 41 targets, brought in 61% of them for a respectable 7.3 yards per target. Wright should be a solid option and at worst not hurt the offense or its efficiency. The depth and explosive burst will have to come from the youngsters. Temi Alaka (6’2”, 200) had 8 yards a target on 7 targets in 2014, Austin Walter (5’7”, 190) and Jeremy Jones (6’5”, 205) were three star recruits in 2013 and redshirted last season, and Parker Smith (6’3”, 200) was a high two star who redshirted as well. They provide talent in the two deep and the possibility for upside on a skill unit that needs all the upside influx it can get. The right side of the line will be real good with 65 returning starts at guard and tackle, the rest of the line is a question mark. The center in line to replace lost starter Matt Simonette has 1 start to his name. The good news is there is size waiting in the coffers with 9 guys that weigh in at, at least 290. A talented group of sophomores should be able to fill in but a step back wouldn’t be the least expected outcome up front.

On defense, well, a bunch of disruption is gone. Both starting DEs, a starting tackle, and a six round draft pick. Between all those lost from the front four they lose 111 tackles, 42.5 TFLs, and 24.5 sacks. In other words, where the fuck is the help going to come from. Well, Stuart Mouchantaf (6’4”, 290) is back to play three technique after missing 2014. In 8 games in 2013 he had 26 tackles including 3 or a loss. If healthy, he will be called upon to replace 11.5 TFLs and 7.5 sacks from last year’s group. To replace the whole outside, we star with Graysen Schantz (6’3”, 240). Schantz played in 11 games as a sophomore and had 18.5 tackles, but the most important part are the 7 TFLs, 3 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. If Schantz can keep up his 2.5 tackles per TFL and continue to help put the ball on the ground, well you’ve found half of your end replacements. On the other side, the position will come down to senior Grant Peterson (6’6”, 250) and sophomores Brian Womac (6’3”, 240) and Connor Johnson (6’2”, 240). Peterson was fine in backup duty in all 13 games last season, but my eyes go to Womac and Johnson who played in 6 and 7 games respectively. Johnson was more disruptive in his limited time with 2 TFLs, a pass breakup, and a forced fumble. I think the young guys will be fine replacements but there may be some shaky moments early on. Inside Trey Martin (6’2”, 285) will more than likely be the one tech starter next to Mouchantaf. He wasn’t overly disruptive as a freshman, but he played in 11 games and had a tackle a game. At 285, if he bulks up a bit as he ages he could be a force going forward. His rotation mate should be Ross Winship (6’4”, 290) a senior who had 2 TFLs last season. The biggest impact at both tackle positions may be youngsters, Brad Luvender (6’3”, 260) is a former three star sophomore, and Zach Abercrumbia (6’2”, 265) and Carl Thompson (6’3”, 275) are both mid-three star freshmen that should add talent and a push to the two deep. Linebacker is a little less affected by attrition. The only loss was WLB James Radcliffe. Playing out of a 4-2-5 and judging by the games played and tackles amounts the Owls like to rotate their linebackers to keep them fresh. SLB Alex Lyons (6’0”, 225) is back after a 57.5 tackle, 5 TFLs, and 3 sack performance in 2014. At the WLB spot, Junior Tabari McGaskey (6’0”, 225) and sophomore Nick Uretsky (6’0”, 225) will battle for the starter spot. McGaskey was more involved last year with 20 tackles in 13 games and he add 2 TFLs and a sack. Uretsky saw time in 12 games as a freshman but only had 3 tackles. McGaskey has a leg up on Uretsky and I’m not sure they go wrong in either direction. There are four other linebackers on the roster and all of them played in at least 12 games last season, and three of them are sophomores like Uretsky. The secondary… Starts from scratch. Not to say no one has experience or upside, but four starters from the back five are gone, and the backup strong safety is gone. There is some good news. Ryan Pollard (5’8”, 175), a corner, is back for his final season at Rice and brings back 10 passes defensed and 25.5 tackles. The starting strong safety should be Cole Thomas (6’2”, 200), a former three star who saw action in all 13 games as a freshman and leads the non-Pollard returners with 2 forced fumbles to go with two passes broken up. Fellow three star Destri White (6’0”, 205) will play the KAT safety (the third safety in a 4-2-5) but he needs to be more present both in coverage and at the line. J.T. Blasingame (5’9”, 175) should slot in at corner opposite Pollard and showed flashes with an INT and 2 passes broken up in 9 games last season. The last safety spot comes down to a pair of seniors or high two star freshmen. Add in 3 star redshirt freshman Aston Walter (5’8”, 190) and you at least have something to build from.

The offense will be fine, maybe not explosive or outstanding but fine. The front four are going to have growing pains and need to get pressure on the QB. The linebackers, are the best group on the field and the deepest, while the secondary has promise but is starting almost purely from scratch. This team will be good, but I don’t see them challenging Louisiana Tech in the West.

Southern Miss (West) | 3-9 (78) | 9 (Y) | 88% | 4 | 63% | 77Todd Monken | Hired 2013 | 4-20

Todd Monken took over in 2013 and, well, it bottomed out. Last year was better, and well, there’s a good amount returning.

We start where we always start, behind center. Nick Mullens (6’1”, 196) is back and that’s something. Mullens had 2470 yards, 12 TDs, and 9 INTs. He did complete near 60% of his passes, he did a good job of avoiding sacks (5.4% sack rate), but his 6.1 yards per attempt leaves a whole lot to be desired. That would all be well and good. There are things to work on but the bad spots aren’t irredeemable. That’s if you don’t have a former four star recruit from TCU transferring in. Tyler Matthews (6’4”, 215) is that man, and he certainly should have all the leeway in the world to win this job. He has the best profile by far on the roster and Mullens wasn’t lights out last season. Add to that two three star freshmen also entering the program, and you got yourself a kerfuffle of grand proportions at QB. ALL the running backs are back. Ito Smith (5’9”, 182) led all running backs for Southern Miss last year with 135 rushes as a freshman. Smith wasn’t all that dynamic for his diminutive frame, at 3.9 yards per carry he was fifth on the team per carry. George Payne (6’0”, 207) was second on the team with 86 carries last season, and he didn’t take advantage of these attempts. At 3.2 yards per carry, he just wasn’t up to snuff. Jalen Richards (5’8”, 207) and Tez Parks (6’1”, 193) both averaged 5.6 yards per carry last year on 42 and 28 rushes. Parks is the underrated player here. On plays where the line got him five, he got close to nine more. If Parks gets the carries he should, he might not hold up on those numbers but he should be better than at least George Payne. Overall there’s talent here but the production needs to be better and Parks and Smith should be a nice duo. Wide Receiver is a better story for the Eagles. Only one player who played last season is gone and another returns after leading the team in targets in 2013. We’ll start with the returnee. Tyre’oune Holmes (5’11”, 170) had 81 targets in 2013 for 410 yards, a 65.4% catch rate, but only 5.1 yards per target. He would have been tied for the third lowest yards per catch of any receiver last season. His replacement, Casey Martin (5’10”, 175), was the leader in targets last season at 74. Martin caught 74.3% of those targets for 7.2 yards per target. He was good out of the slot, but Michael Thomas (6’1”, 186) was better on the outside. Thomas had 68 targets for 592 yards, 60.3% catch rate, and 8.7 yards per target. I’ll take the drop in catch rate when you’re running the deep route. The other two presumed starters were fine last season. The Z, or right outside spot, was held down by Marquise Ricard (6’2”, 192) who had 6.8 yards per carry on 61 targets, but he only brought in 49.2% of his targets. The Y, or left slot, Kyle Foster (6’3”, 218) was the back-up last year but was a respectable 7 yards per target on only 24 targets, an increase role will be interesting. On the two deep you have three players with at least 8 yards per target, albeit on small sample sizes, and bring in a three star redshirt freshman and a three star TE. The receiving options are fine and have upside but will need QB certainty to be anything more than that. Up front everybody but the RG is back from a bad line, but there is youth with five juniors or sophomores contributing to the 77 returning starts. They really can’t get much worse but will need major improvements in the run game.

On defense, well shit, they’re all gone. Dasman McCullum and Rakeem Nunez-Roches were bright spots on an improving defense and they leave after combining for 94.5 tackles, 27 TFLs and 7.5 sacks. That’s a lot to replace and with the front four returning 79 tackles, 9 TFLs and 5.5 sacks, well, positive thoughts are needed. So, let’s start positive then. Dylan Bradley (6’1”, 265) flashed last year in his 8 games. His 20.5 tackles are fine, but what should get you excited is the 5 TFLs and 3 sacks. In 8 games that’s exciting production. His backup at the BANDIT spot, Ja’Boree Poole (6’2”, 241) played in 12 games, but had just 8 tackles, 1.5 were TFLs/sacks. That’s a heck of a ratio and at least shows hope for upside. The hope inside is tempered. Draper Riley (6’4”, 289), played in 9 games as a freshman, 10 tackles, and a TFL. It’s something, and this front four needs something. The returning DE and DT, don’t bring optimism. Michael Smith (6’4”, 277), a DE, had 23.5 tackles in 10 games but only .5 TFLs, and DT Wil Freeman (6’6”, 261), DT, is missing an L and had 10.5 tackles in 11 games and a TFL. So there are two positions of hope, and two positions of warm bodies. The good news is the recruiting had been fine. Rod Crayton (6’1’, 287) saw time in just 5 games, but he’s a former high three star player and is only a sophomore. There are also two former three stars coming in at DE and a duo of high two stars at DT. Behind the rebuilding front four, the linebacking corps has a greater set of returnees but will need to replace their leader and another starter. Alan Howze (56.5 tackles) and Justin Penn (11 tackles) are gone, and in at least Howze case that’s a hit. To replace Howze is Terrick Wright (6’2”, 228) who played in 12 games but only had 17 tackles. Now most of that was in back-up duty but he should at least eat up tackles and help replace Howze’s ability against the run. As far as replacing Penn, well, in 9 games David Bertucci (5’11”, 198) had 6.5 tackles, including .5 for a loss. Bertucci will struggle to have as little impact as Penn last season. At MLB, Brian Anderson (5’10”, 248) is the best tackle producer back at 51.5 tackles. The better news is his 3 TFLs last season, this shows us a player willing to come down hill but may struggle to improve his TFL number with that weak front four clearing lanes. WLB Terrick Wright (6’2”, 228) to improve off his backup role last season that saw him get 17 tackles in 12 games. The last player in the group with a good number of tackles was Elijah Parker (6’2”, 280). Parker isn’t listed at a specific position but he saw time in 10 games and had the third most tackles (30.5) among linebackers. Parker should at worst fill in and may be able to be utilized in a SPUR role with his 6’2”, 208 frame. Behind that a freshman and sophomore three star recruits wait in the two deep and should at least push the older players. Both starting safeties are gone in the secondary, and with them, 116.5 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, a sack, and 7 passes broken up. No safeties are back, but all the corners are back. Led by Kalan Reed (5’11”, 191) a senior who had 11 passes defensed, a TFL, and 32 tackles. In the CB two deep, there is a trio of sophomore corners. Picasso Nelson Jr (5’10”, 187) had 9 passes defensed and 28.5 tackles, Jomez Applewhite (6’1”, 177) 3 passes defensed, 2.5 TFLs, and 26.5 tackles, and Trae Collins (5’11”, 183) 12 tackles, a TFL and a pass breakup. The B safety role will most likely be filled by Cornell Armstrong (5’11”, 175), a sophomore, who had 26 tackles, 3 for a loss and four passes broken up. Kevin Williams Jr (5’11”, 194) will be the free safety, another sophomore, Williams Jr, played in 6 games and had 4 tackles. He will be thrust into the spotlight, but those are the breaks. Add three, three star additions to the squad, through JUCO and recruiting, and you have a young exciting secondary that may not be ready to perform.

The offense has question at QB, whomever it is should have a good receiving corps to work with and some running back depth to work with. The line can’t be worse, and has some youth to it. The defensive line has to replace a lot, and it’s a mixed bag of replacements. The linebackers bring back a bunch and are the most experienced unit on the defense. And the secondary is exciting and has the most upside of potentially any unit on the team outside of QB. They should be better, but how much?

UTEP (West) | 7-6 (114) | 6 (N) | 50% | 6 | 54% | 52Sean Kugler | Hired 2013 | 9-16

Not much to say on Kugler. He took over a UTEP program that has rarely seen sustained success, but has been slightly below conference average for most of the decade. 2014 was a great improvement, let’s see what he can do with pretty substantial losses heading into 2015.

Jameill Showers is gone, but outside of having to find a new QB isn’t that much of an issue. Showers completed 55.6% of his passes at a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt. He did have a 2:1 TD to INT ratio and a 4.3% sack rate that were both very fine numbers. Mack Leftwich (5’10”, 190) saw time as a freshman in 2013, was more accurate, 58.7% completion percentage, but he took a sack on 11.8% of his 75 attempts and averaged 4.6 yards per attempt. He will be challenged by a trio of former two stars. Junior Garrett Simpson (6’7”, 250), redshirt freshman Ryan Metz (6’4”, 205), and true frosh Kavika Johnson (6’1”, 205). Metz and Johnson are probably the biggest competition here, they’re younger and more highly touted than Simpson. So there’s intrigue as to whom will start, but not too much excitement for the replacements. The good news for whomever starts? The running game will be a real asset. Aaron Jones (5’10”, 185) is back to reprise his sophomore role on the team. With 241 carries, 11 TDs, and 5.5 yards per carry the only downside was the 3 fumbles lost. The next three rushers are gone, which opens up around 250 carries. Those carries will be distributed to some combination of backs that had no greater than 15 carries last season. David Hamm (6’0”, 220) is the most intriguing of the group, a former high two star sophomore who averaged 6.9 yards per carry on 14 carries last season. He’ll be competing against seniors, Autrey Golden (5’11”, 180) and Jeremiah Laufasa (6’0”, 215) who averaged 6.7 and 7.2 yards per carry respectively. Darrin Laufasa (6’1”, 235) will certainly get some carries at FB as Josh Bell had 52 last season. The last entrant into the carries discussion will be incoming freshman, three star recruit Treyvon Hughes (6’1”, 225). Hughes has the size to run through the opponents and should be at least top three in carries this season. A combination of Hughes, Hamm and Jones is a very nice place to start in on a team that ran twice as much as it passed. And a run dominant team is about to get even more so. Of the top eight receiving options only running backs Golden and Jones are back. They were the 2^nd and 3^rd most targeted players at 48 & 40. Jones did more with his receptions at 7.3 yards per target to Golden’s 5.5, but both were fine fall back options out of the backfield. The good news with having a bad passing game and losing everyone is you have a clean slate to work with. The bad news is everyone is gone and an offense that had experience last year couldn’t do much with it. One of the outside receivers will most likely be Jaquan White (5’11”, 190), the highest returning receiver had 8 targets and 11.9 yards per target. That upside and should be rewarded. The rest of the group is young and inexperienced. Tyler Batson (6’0”, 195) is a high two star sophomore, Cole Rodgers (6’4”, 225) is a sophomore TE, and a trio of two stars that haven’t seen the field make up a receiving corps that will be the fodder of very few dreams for UTEP fans. 2^nd team all-conference LT Jerel Watkins is gone and with him 42 starts, but there are 52 returning starts. That returning talent is young and should be great on the ground and good enough to give whomever starts plenty of time as they learn the offense.

The top two tacklers from last season are back and much like many Sun Belt lines, where’s the beef? Nick Usher (6’3”, 235) and Roy Robertson-Harris (6’7”, 255) are tiny ends even for mid-majors. The good news is that the young guys on the roster bring some of that beef but will need to show the ability work into rotations. Back to the matter at hand. Despite size issues, Usher and Robertson-Harris combined for 15 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 5 forced fumbles. That’s good production and is helped by a scheme that prioritizes disruption and aggressiveness. Behind those two, Silas Firstley (6’1”, 265) as some girth and had 2 TFLs and a sack on just 13.5 tackles last season. He will be joined by former two star sophomore Luke Elsner (6’3”, 240) and Joseph Kraemer (6’3”, 245), a three star redshirt frosh who may be the most intriguing player on this roster and certainly in the front four. Inside, nose tackle Gino Bresolin (6’2”, 285) is back after a 19 tackle, 2.5 TFL season as a sophomore, but he needs to grow into his role and body for him to be a true force in the middle. The three technique is a huge question with limited options to answer the call. Alex Villareal (6’4”, 300) had 8 tackles in 12 games, Demarcus Womack (6’3”, 335) may be better suited at the nose, Sky Logan (6’2”, 285) has the body type but doesn’t have a designated position. Other than those three a trio of Nose tackles fill out the front four roster that has a lot of questions to answer. Linebacker doesn’t have a returning player issue, but that doesn’t really address talent. Three players that played at least 12 games last season and all three were part of a four man rotation in UTEP’s 4-2-5. Alvin Jones (5’11”, 215) is the returning starter at the WLB. Jones started all 13 games as a freshman, racking up a front six leading 41.5 tackles. He was a good part of the disruption caused by the UTEP defense with 9 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, an INT, and 3 passes broken up. Jimmy Musgrave (6’4”, 240) should ascend to the starting role at the MLB spot, after a 24 tackle, 3.5 TFLs, and 2 sack season in a back-up role last season. Trey Brown (6’0”, 215) is back to reprise his role from last year as the back-up, a role he produced 23.5 tackles, 5 TFLs and 2 sacks last season. The only chances for a disruption to the status quo are two high two stars from the 2013 recruiting class. Lawrence Montegut (6’1”, 220) and Justen Tatum (6’1”, 240) look like the next set of linebackers for UTEP with Montegut looking like a WLB and Tatum a MLB. In the secondary, the FS two deep is on lock with both Devon Cockrell (5’11”, 190) and Dashone Smith (6’0”, 200) both returning. Cockrell had 44.5 tackles last year with 7.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 2 passes broken up. Smith as a backup was the fifth leading tackler in the secondary. A pair of senior corner backs look like the most likely successors to the vacated corner positions. Ishmael Harrison (6’0”, 195) and Traun Roberson (6’0”, 195) played in a combined 22 games last season and had 6 passes broken up and a TFL between them. Three star freshman Kalon Beverly (6’1”, 175) and high two star redshirt frosh Nik Needham (5’11”, 185) should factor in significantly with a very shallow defensive back corps. At strong safety there will be a two way battle between LaQuintus Dowell (5’10”, 2015) and Leon Hayes (5’10”, 200) both of whom had little impact in the secondary last season. Lastly, the third safety will be sold two star redshirt freshman Adrian Hynson (5’10”, 185) who will be thrust into a major role with no experience at the college level.

There isn’t much optimism on defense. A squad that needed to sell out on pressure to be a degree south of meh last season. On offense, the running game is going to be leaned on once again with major question at QB and WR and limited upside. This looks like another year of below average ball but at least UTEP fans will know what to expect with the ball on offense.

North Texas (West) | 4-8 (119) | 6 (Y) | 75% | 6 | 55% | 27Dan McCarney | Hired 2011 | 78-112 (22-27)

2013 was a high spot for North Texas but that did not last, ’14 brought them back down to a level they haven’t sunk to since 2008. McCarney came to North Texas in 2011 and got the Mean Green to 9 wins in 2013. Now he must do it all over again.

The good news is that all three quarterbacks that played last season are back. The bad? All three quarterbacks who played last season are back. Andrew McNulty (6’1”, 209) had the most attempts last year with 202, but he complete less than 55% of those for a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt. McNulty was the best at getting rid of the ball, with a 5.2% sack rate. The next most attempts belonged to then true freshman Dajon Williams (6’3”, 202) at 77. Williams was close to 60% on his completions, hit 6.3 yards per attempt, but took sacks on 10.5% of his drop backs. Josh Greer (6’5”, 220) won the job but was atrocious and I don’t see a way the job ends up back in his hands. For my money I’d give the job to Williams, redshirt freshman Connor Means (6’4”, 210), former three star JUCO transfer DaMarcus Smith (6’1”, 205), or three star true freshman Caleb Chumley (6’5”, 245) with my money being on Chumley. Why not give it to the most talented player on the depth chart even if there are bumps on the road. Unlike UTEP where the rushing game will be a saving grace for the quarterback, there’s a little more uncertainty in the backfield for North Texas, but that doesn’t mean a lack of hope. Antoinne Jimmerson (5’9”, 222) has a great name and was a fairly effective at 4.9 yards per carry on 121 carries and 5 TDs. 4.9 is a fine number but it needs some work and the senior has younger company. Jeffrey Wilson (6’0”, 190) hit 4.5 yards per carry as a freshman on 50 carries. You expect a freshman to struggle a bit and Wilson certainly didn’t take advantage of good blocking as well as Jimmerson, but he’s got much more room to grow with age on his side. McNulty and Williams were the next two leading rushers and I don’t think they retain their jobs, if they play Williams hit 6.5 yards per attempt on 30 rushes and McNulty was at 5.2 on 31. So Chumley, and/or Wilson will have carries to make up and good production to reproduce at that. Add in a pair of three star sophomore in the forms of Andrew Tucker (6’0”, 201) and Willy Ivery (5’9”, 180) and you have a backfield with question but upside to help out Chumley or any other starter. Talking of QB help, the leading receiver from last season is back, Carlos Harris (5’8”, 183) had 112 targets, caught 62.5% of his targets for an alright, in context, 7.7 yards per target. The context here being that no QB last season averaged more than 6.3 yards per attempt. No other player last season was within 65 targets of Harris and no one returning was within 80 targets. That next returning pass catcher was Darvin Kidsy (6’0”, 182) who had 30 targets, with a 50% catch rate, but a very disappointing 4.9 yards per target. TE Marcrus Smith (6’4”, 247) had 28 targets, had a better 57.1% catch rate, and 8.9 yards per target. The only other player with 25 targets last season was Turner Smiley (6’0”, 185) who had 26 targets, caught 53.8% of those targets, and a pretty good 7.5 yards per target. Outside of those four players the running backs Jimmerson and Wilson averaged 7.3 and 6.8 yards per attempt respectively continuing to make me look foolish for my comments about the questionability of the backfield around the new QB. The rest of the receiver depth will come from players without experience at North Texas. Tee Goree (6’3”, 170) is a former three star redshirt freshman, high two star junior transfer Thaddeous Thompson (6’2”, 197), three star freshman TE Kevin Dillman (6’4”, 245), three star freshman D’Aundrey Bradley (6’2”, 177), and high two star freshman Rodney Bendy (6’5”, 187). That’s a nice dose of talented youth for a program that needs a nice rebound. Up front, a bad run blocking line, that was really good in 3^rd/4^th and 2 or less, loses a bunch of experience and adds a bunch of big, young depth. They do have a tough act to follow on passing downs and, well, I think they end up slightly below average overall. I, think.

On the other side of the ball there’s a lot coming back, and they’ve all, almost to a man, have disruption to show for their time on the field. Eight of them played in at least seven games, and all eight of them put up at least 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks. So in a 3-3-5 we have almost a full three deep to work with. So let’s start with the presumed starting three and work our way down. The two ends will be Jarrian Roberts (6’2”, 240) and Chad Polk (6’0”, 231). Roberts played in all 12 games, racked up 18.5 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks. Polk played in 10 games, also had 18.5 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks, 3 pass broken up, and a forced fumble. Polk is the potential star here, if he can stay healthy and expand upon last year’s numbers he will be the key stone to the defense. The nose will most likely be Austin Orr (6’4”, 277) who played 11 games last season, had 17.5 tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. Orr will be challenged by Sir. Clavin. Wallace. A great name and a fairly disruptive tackle. Wallace had 16 tackles, in 12 games, 4 TFLs, and 2 sacks. Yeah, there’s alright tackle depth here. Behind those four, sophomore Tillman Johnson (6’1”, 243) played in 8 games, but had 4 tackles for loss out of his 8.5 games. Rounding out the depth her are DEs Malik Dilonga (6’4”, 252) and Andy Flusche (6’3”, 261), and DT Sid Moore (6’1”, 257) who had 3, 2.5, and 3.5 TFLs respectively in 8, 7, and 9 games respectively. Add in JUCO transfer Jareid Combs (6’3”, 248), and Joseph Ozougwu (6’3”, 205) a three star true freshman at DE who should at least bolster a deep positional rotation. At linebacker we see another group that saw five players play in at least 11 games, four of whom are back, and two more who played at least 8 games. We’ll start in the middle, where Fred Scott (5’11”, 238) returns after playing in all 12 games, had 40.5 tackles, and 2.5 TFLs. He was good, cleaned up messes pretty well, but he needs to be better at the line of scrimmage in 2015. Behind Scott is Anthony Wallace (6’0”, 236). Wallace is a former four star recruit who got hurt, but in his 9 games, he had 21.5 tackles and 2 passes broken up. At worst, he’s nice depth at MLB. On the outside there are big shoes to fill. Derek Akunne is gone and with him 86.5 tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 3 sacks, 2 passes broken up, and 3 forced fumbles. Jamal Marshall (6’3”, 203) is back for his senior season after 31.5 tackles, and 1.5 TFLs. He will need to be better if only in the 50 to 55 tackle region to start to pick up that slack. The replacement for Akunne will come down to a battle between junior Sed Ellis (6’3”, 210) and sophomore Calvin Minor (6’3”, 219). Ellis was fine in his 12 games with 18 tackles and a tackle for a loss, but in this battle I favor Minor. Minor had 17.5 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, and 1.5 sacks in one less game and as a freshmen and that upside is what will be needed to replace the huge impact of Derek Akunne. Filling out the two deep is A.J. Smith (6’2”, 224), who played in 8 games but he’s only a fill in player and emergency use. Brandon Garner (5’11”, 220) is coming off his redshirt season as a former three star, and is joined by two JUCO transfers that were presumably brought in to bolster depth. The secondary is in need of a major rebuild, starters at CB, FS, and SS are all gone and with them 19 passes defensed and 136.5 tackles between the three. The good news is the lone returning starter at corner, Kenny Buyers (5’11”, 186), played in all 12 games, had 46 tackles and 5 passes defensed. The replacement at FS also played in all 12 games. Kishawn McClain (5’11”, 193) had 30 tackles, but only 1 pass defensed (and INT). He was just a freshman last season however, and that should be a bright spot for all Mean Green fans. The presumed replacement at SS, John Schilleci (6’0”, 200), had a tackle per game played and that will certainly need to be better in the lead role. Chad Davis (5’10”, 184) played in 11 games at corner with only 6 tackles but he had 3 passes defensed and that’s at least something to extrapolate hope off of. They also brought in a Jakii Moore (6’1”, 198) from UAB and Kerrick Rhone (5’10”, 180) from Kent State to bolster a depleted corps, but neither is a highly touted addition and expectations should be tempered. The JUCO additions are much more intriguing. James Gray (6’0”, 193) and Xavier Grindle (5’11”, 192) were both three star JUCO recruits and should factor into the corner back rotation. Add three star DB Ashton Preston (5’10”, 177) and high two star Nate Brooks (6’0”, 163) and there’s some hope of growth in 2015 and good play in years ahead.

Overall there is a bunch to rebuild here and a very tempered feel for what comes back. The offense should be alright but it doesn’t appear to have the burst to make up for a defense that is almost certainly going to regress in the back 8.

UTSA (West) | 4-8 (97) | 2 (N) | 43% | 3 | 41% | 23Larry Coker | Hired 2009 | 83-38 (23-23)

I want to put something here about the UTSA journey but Bill Connelly sums it up perfectly and I don’t want to just change a few words so go read section one of this.

With the rebuild the most interesting question will be what Coker will do at QB. Austin Robinson (6’3”, 220) and Blake Bogenschutz (6’1”, 180) both saw playing time last season, but neither really flashed much last season. They both were right around 56% of their passes, they had 3.4 and 5.7 yards per attempt respectively, and both had sack rates above 8%. So that means we look farther down the depth chart. Russell Bellomy (6’3”, 210) is a former three star Michigan recruit, Jaylon Henderson (6’2”, 200) is a three star freshman, and Manny Harris (6’0”, 22) is a high two star freshman. If Coker doesn’t think that Henderson or Harris is ready to then I think you see Bellomy as a holdover option for a young squad that could use senior leadership behind center. Last year’s leading rusher David Glasco II is gone but at 3.8 yards per carry the returning backs can certainly improve on his role. Jarveon Williams (5’9”, 200) had 66 carries, second on the team, for 4.9 yards per carry and 3 touchdowns. That’s a solid place to start from, if a bit unspectacular. I feel obliged to mention that Austin Robinson was third on the team in rushing and at 6.1 yards per carry was the most efficient rusher. He also had 6 fumbles (4 lost) which is certainly a concern. That means the impact will need to come from the new additions. Corbin White (5’11”, 225) is a high two star JUCO transfer, Jess Anders (5’9”, 175) is a three star freshman, and Brett Winnegan (5’9”, 175) is a high two star. Williams is the biggest of the group overall and probably will lead the team in carries but Anders or Winnegan have the frames to be scat backs who should add a burst to the run game that it didn’t have last season. We move to a depleted receiving crops (you’ll notice a theme from position group to position group) next where of the seven people who had 20 targets last year, two remain. The two that remain are slot receiver Aaron Grubb (5’8”, 170) and TE David Morgan II (6’4”, 250). Grubb caught 62.2% of his targets last season but for 5.5 yards per target, which for a receiver who catches passes in a short area is fine but it’s not a number that jumps off the charts. Morgan II shows more flash. At an 80% catch rate, and 10.2 yards per target Morgan flashed in a big way on his 25 targets last season. If he can be a seam stretcher that adds a nice element to the offense. Of the players with under 20 targets last year, Kerry Thomas Jr (6’0”, 200) had 6.8 yards per target as a freshman, but needs to do a better job than his 41.7% catch rate. Senior Kenny Bias (6’1”, 180) had 9.5 yards per target on 11 targets last season, but how much upside does he have heading into his final season at UTSA. The good news, is there’s talent coming in. Three star former Sooner Dannon Cavil (6’4”, 215), three star sophomore Aron Taylor (6’1”, 200), and three star JUCO transfer JaBryce Taylor will add a shot of talent to the receiving options. Add in a trio of high two, low three star freshmen round out a corps that may be better late than early this season. Up front, all of the starters are gone, and with them 179 starts. The good news is they weren’t great and the newcomers include a bevy of high two stars and a pair of three star recruits. Add in a pair of seniors with 23 starts and this is a surprising workable group.

The defense was really good against the run, and susceptible against the pass. The front four of this 4-2-5 is in total rebuild. Only one player with at least 15 tackles returns, but 5 players return with at least 6 games of experience from last season. The lone returning player with at least 20 tackles is DE Jason Neill (6’2”, 260) who had 23.5 tackles, 7 TFLs, 4 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles. Neill look primed to have a real nice senior season and he’s going to need to be good from the start. Codie Brooks (6’1”, 250) had 14.5 tackles in 8 games, 2.5 for a loss but will need to stay healthy. Brooks will be joined by sophomore Marcus Davenport (6’6”, 215). Davenport played in 11 games, only had 9.5 tackles but 2.5 TFL/sacks. He was just a freshman and should at least see rotation time if he can’t beat out Brooks. Let’s go ahead and finish out the DE depth. That depth includes a senior who didn’t play last season, a high two star JUCO and two, two star freshman. At DT, Brian Price (6’3”, 310) played 9 games last year with 3 TFLs and 2 sacks as part of his 14.5 tackles. Price will be joined by fellow senior Kennedy Ubabuike (6’2”, 280) played in 6 games and had 1.5 TFLs. These aren’t inspiring options and they will need major contributions from the newbies. Vontrell King-Williams (6’2”, 325) is a high two star JUCO transfer and should slot in to the two deep at the one technique. He’s joined by fellow two star JUCO addition Jonathan Tuiolosega (6’1”, 290) who if nothing else is much needed depth. Linebacker suffered the least attrition of any unit on the field for the Roadrunners. OLB Jens Jeters is gone and with him his 59.5 tackles, 4 TFLs and a sack. That’s a big loss but, Drew Douglas (6’1”, 230) is back to reprise his disruptive ways. Douglas had 53.5 tackles in 2014, but it was his 7 TFLs that make him a key returner. If the new DTs can keep linemen off of him he will be a beast in the middle of this defense. Replacing Jeters is up to sophomore Marcos Curry (5’11”, 210). Curry played in 10 games and had 10 tackles. He will need to grow into the starting role but on a young team that goes for just about everybody. He’ll be challenged Dalton Miller (5’11”, 220) who had 4 tackles in 9 games and a sack. Justin Todd (6’0”, 200) a high two star redshirt and La’Kel Bas (6’1”, 230) a JUCO transfer round out the depth with Todd in a position where he might be called to MLB duty. The secondary is a mix of rebuilding and returning, where a couple positions have depth and the youngsters will be thrown into the mix. The starters at the Rover and Dawg strong safeties are back. Marcus Sanchez (6’0”, 200) is the returner at ROVER had 35 tackles, 4 for loss and 3 passes defensed. A pair of DAWG safeties are back, Michael Egwuagu (6’0”, 215) played in 9 games but was very productive with 30 tackles, 3 for a loss, 2 passes defensed and a forced fumble. His two deep mate is Chase Dahlquist (6’0”, 195) who played in 12 games, but he only had 20 tackles and no passes defensed. Bennett Okotcha (6’0”, 195) is the most experienced corner returning and he showed flashes with 5 passes defensed and should at least be solid in an expanded role. FS will be sophomore Justin Chavez (5’10”, 195) who played in 9 games as a freshman and will obviously need to be better as the starter. The incoming depth is young and highly rated, with four three star recruits and three high two star additions in this recruiting class.

There’s promise here, but the biggest questions will be the meshing of seniors, youngsters and JUCOs. I think the offense will struggle but if the running game ticks up a touch and whomever starts at QB should have options. I’m optimistic about the back seven but the line concerns me and depth will be an issue. All that said I think this team makes a jump late in the year and we’re all bullish on UTSA again in 2016.

Conference Overview

Overall there is talent up top in CUSA with Marshall, WKU, and Louisiana Tech, but the bottom is rough and that really drags the conference down. The East title race will be great and the championship game should be fun with three great offenses in the race.

East: Marshall, WKU, Middle Tennessee, FAU, Old Dominion, Charlotte

West: Louisiana Tech, Rice, Southern Miss, UTSA, UTEP, North Texas

Rambling Sports

Resources

Most Popular This Month

Thursday, August 6, 2015

2015 Conference USA Preview