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Monday, November 14, 2016

2016 College Football Season: Chaos! Chaos! OMG! Chaos!: Conference Races

Three teams have clinched now: Louisiana Tech (CUSA-W), San Diego State (MWC-W), & Alabama (SEC-W).

AAC
Narrative: Navy has wins over Tulsa & Houston thanks to a win against Tulsa this past week. With two weeks to go that's huge. In the East, USF has a loss to Temple and has that clearly stacked against them with two weeks left. Tulsa at UCF is the game you see first with the third team in each divisional trio facing off against each other in a de facto elimination game. Of USF, Temple, Navy, and Houston, Houston has the toughest test but it's out of conference against Louisville so it doesn't matter here. Temple has the easiest game against Tulane, USF gets the toughest with SMU, and Navy gets a nominal test against East Carolina.

Division: East
Contenders: USF (5-1), Temple (5-1), UCF (4-2)
Eliminated: Cincinnati (1-5), East Carolina (1-5), UCONN (1-6)
The Rest: None
Key Games: USF at SMU, Temple at Tulane, Tulsa at UCF

Division: West
Contenders: Navy (5-1), Houston (5-2), Tulsa (4-2)
Eliminated: Tulane (0-6)
The Rest: Memphis (3-3), SMU (3-3)
Key Games: Navy at East Carolina, Tulsa at UCF

ACC
Narrative: Clemson is the only contender in the ACC that has a conference game and they get a Wake Forest team that I'm not sure how they'll come out. Clemson itself is coming off an upset at the hands of the Pitt but they still control their own destiny. Louisville gets a fun game with Houston, UNC gets The Citadel, and Virginia Tech heads to South Bend for a kind of lackluster matchup.

Division: Atlantic
Contenders: Louisville (7-1), Clemson (6-1)
Eliminated: Florida State (4-3), Wake Forest (3-3),
NC State (2-4), Syracuse (2-4), Boston College (1-6)
The Rest: None
Key Games: Clemson at Wake Forest

Division: Coastal
Contenders: UNC (5-2), Virginia Tech (5-2)
Eliminated: Georgia Tech (3-4), Virginia (1-5), Duke (1-5)
The Rest: Pittsburgh (3-3), Miami (FL) (3-3)
Key Games: None

Big XII
Narrative: Bedlam is going to be crazy this year but we're a week away and this week both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have strong tests. TCU is the higher variance of the two opponents, but I think both will be challenged fairly in a look ahead situation.

Contenders: Oklahoma (7-0), Oklahoma State (6-1)
Eliminated: Baylor (3-3), Kansas State (3-3), TCU (3-3)
Texas (3-4), Texas Tech (2-5), Iowa State (1-6), Kansas (0-7)
The Rest: West Virginia (5-1)
Key Games: Oklahoma at West Virginia, Oklahoma State at TCU

Big Ten
Narrative: Penn State and Wisconsin have cupcakes, I can't believe Iowa is anywhere close to still in this, Nebraska is with Armstrong and that should be the end of them, and Minnesota-Northwestern is this week's Minnesota-Nebraska.

Division: East
Contenders: Michigan (6-1), Ohio State (6-1), Penn State (6-1)
Eliminated: Indiana (3-4), Maryland (2-5), Michigan State (1-6), Rutgers (0-7)
The Rest: None
Key Games: Indiana at Michigan, Ohio State at Michigan State, Penn State at Rutgers

Division: West
Contenders: Wisconsin (5-2), Minnesota (5-2), Nebraska (4-3), Iowa (4-3), Northwestern (4-3)
Eliminated: Illinois (2-5), Purdue (1-6)
The Rest: None
Key Games: Wisconsin at Purdue, Northwestern at Minnesota,
Maryland at Nebraska, Iowa at Illinois

CUSA
Narrative: Only FAU has a game that matters this week and they get FAU and that shouldn't be too much of a problem for them. WKU has the week off and Louisiana Tech has the West wrapped up.

Division: East
Contenders: WKU (6-1), Old Dominion (5-1)
Eliminated: Middle Tennessee (3-3), Charlotte (3-3), FIU (3-3), FAU (2-4), Marshall (2-4)
The Rest: None
Key Games: Old Dominion at FAU

Division: West
Champion: Louisiana Tech (6-1)

MAC
Narrative: There isn't much to look at here that matters for the MAC, three contenders have games but no team has a test that should be too worrisome.

Division: East
Contenders: Ohio (5-1), Miami (OH) (5-2)
Eliminated: Akron (3-4), Kent State (2-4), Bowling Green (1-5), Buffalo (1-4)
The Rest: None
Key Games: Ohio at Central Michigan

Division: West
Contenders: Western Michigan (6-0), Toledo (5-1)
Eliminated: Eastern Michigan (3-3), Northern Illinois (3-3)
Central Michigan (2-4), Ball State (1-5)
The Rest: None
Key Games: Buffalo at Western Michigan, Ball State at Toledo

Mountain West
Narrative: Wyoming needs to avoid a loss against San Diego State who has already locked up the Mountain West West. If they don't Boise State is back in the drivers seat in the Mountain West Mountain. Boise should walk over UNLV on Friday, but those mid-week games are tough and New Mexico should survive Colorado State in Fort Collins but to be honest their inclusion here surprised me.

Division: Mountain
Contenders: Wyoming (5-1), Boise State (5-1), New Mexico (5-1)
Eliminated: Utah State (1-6)
The Rest: Colorado State (3-3), Air Force (3-3)
Key Games: UNLV at Boise State, San Diego State at Wyoming, New Mexico at Colorado State

Division: West
Champion: San Diego State (6-0)

Pac-12
Narrative: Washington State at Colorado is what you should watch, it's going to be really fun, and this is probably the most wide open conference this season even if it's not in consideration for the best conference in the country.

Division: North
Contenders: Washington State (7-1), Washington (6-1)
Eliminated: Stanford (5-3), California (2-5), Oregon (1-6), Oregon State (1-6)
The Rest: None
Key Games: Washington State at Colorado, Arizona State at Washington

Division: South
Contenders: Colorado (6-1), USC (6-2), Utah (5-2)
Eliminated: Arizona State (2-5), UCLA (2-5), Arizona (0-7)
The Rest: None
Key Games: Washington State at Colorado, USC at UCLA, Oregon at Utah

SEC
Narrative: Bama's the best team in the country, Florida-LSU is going to be a shit ton of fun, and Florida should be the East's representative in the SEC Championship game.

Division: East
Contenders: Florida (5-2)
Eliminated: Georgia (4-4), Kentucky (4-4), South Carolina (3-5), Vanderbilt (1-5), Missouri (1-5)
The Rest: Tennessee (3-3)
Key Games: Florida at LSU

Division: West
Champion: Alabama (7-0)

Sun Belt
Narrative: Troy comes off a win over Appalachian State and immediately gets rewarded with Arkansas State and a chance to put a game and head to head tie breaker over both foes for the top of the conference.

Contenders: Troy (5-0), Arkansas State (5-0), Appalachian State (5-1)
Eliminated: Louisiana (3-3), Georgia Southern (3-3), ULM (3-3),
New Mexiso State (1-4), South Alabama (1-5), Georgia State (1-5), Texas State (0-5)
The Rest: Idaho (4-2)
Key Games: Arkansas State at Troy, ULM at Appalachian State

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