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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

2016 College Football Season: Bowl Rankings

Here we are the bowl rankings, these rankings take into account four different ranking of the bowl games. System rank, which is adjusted version of the average rank of the two participants and the difference between those two teams in the rankings, my rank, which is how I ranked the games, and the rankings of Stewart Mandel at Fox and Tom Fornelli at CBS to give an idea of how people who are not me or a system I created think of the games. I did give my rank double the weight because these are ultimately my rankings, but the influence of the other ranks is notable. Ties in average rank are broken by my ranking.

Bowl
Home
Away
Date
System
Rank
My
Rank
Mandel
(FOX)
Fornelli
(CBS)
Ave.
Rank
Fiesta
Ohio
State
Clemson
31-Dec
2
1
1
2
1.5
Peach
Alabama
Washington
31-Dec
1
2
2
1
1.5
Rose
USC
Penn
State
2-Jan
3
8
3
3
4.25
Orange
Michigan
Florida
State
30-Dec
6
7
4
4
5.25
Alamo
Oklahoma
State
Colorado
29-Dec
5
4
7
7
5.75
Sugar
Auburn
Oklahoma
2-Jan
9
3
8
6
6.5
Citrus
LSU
Louisville
31-Dec
8
6
5
8
6.75
Cotton
Western
Michigan
Wisconsin
2-Jan
4
15
6
5
7.5
Russell
Athletic
West
Virginia
Miami
(FL)
28-Dec
12
10
9
10
10.25
Sun
Stanford
North
Carolina
30-Dec
7
11
11
12
10.25
Las
Vegas
Houston
San Diego
State
17-Dec
23
5
10
9
11.75
Outback
Florida
Iowa
2-Jan
14
14
13
11
13
Music
City
Nebraska
Tennessee
30-Dec
16
17
12
16
15.25
Holiday
Minnesota
Washington
State
27-Dec
11
28
16
13
17
Texas
Texas
A&M
Kansas
State
28-Dec
18
22
14
15
17.25
Pinstripe
Pittsburgh
Northwestern
28-Dec
21
20
17
17
18.75
Camellia
Appalachian
State
Toledo
17-Dec
27
9
27
14
19.25
Foster Farms
Indiana
Utah
28-Dec
15
23
19
21
19.5
Cactus
Boise
State
Baylor
27-Dec
17
18
20
27
20.5
Belk
Arkansas
Virginia
Tech
29-Dec
20
25
15
22
20.5
Armed
Forces
Louisiana
Tech
Navy
23-Dec
24
12
29
20
21.25
TaxSlayer
Georgia
Tech
Kentucky
31-Dec
13
30
18
24
21.25
Boca
Raton
Memphis
WKU
20-Dec
29
16
24
18
21.75
Liberty
Georgia
TCU
30-Dec
25
26
21
19
22.75
Poinsettia
BYU
Wyoming
21-Dec
22
21
26
29
24.5
Birmingham
USF
South
Carolina
29-Dec
10
31
22
38
25.25
Independence
NC
State
Vanderbilt
26-Dec
28
29
23
25
26.25
Military
Temple
Wake
Forest
27-Dec
26
24
25
33
27
Cure
UCF
Arkansas
State
17-Dec
31
19
32
30
28
Dollar
General
Ohio
Troy
23-Dec
32
27
30
23
28
Miami
Beach
Central
Michigan
Tulsa
19-Dec
19
32
31
37
29.75
New
Orleans
Southern
Miss
Louisiana
17-Dec
40
13
40
34
31.75
Quick
Lane
Maryland
Boston
College
26-Dec
35
37
28
28
32
Bahamas
Eastern
Michigan
Old
Dominion
23-Dec
36
33
35
31
33.75
Idaho
Potato
Idaho
Colorado
State
22-Dec
33
40
36
26
33.75
New
Mexico
New
Mexico
UTSA
17-Dec
30
36
38
32
34
St.
Petersburg
Miami
(OH)
Mississippi
State
26-Dec
38
35
33
35
35.25
Hawaii
Hawaii
Middle
Tennessee
24-Dec
37
34
34
39
36
Arizona
South
Alabama
Air
Force
30-Dec
34
38
37
36
36.25
Heart of
Dallas
Army
North
Texas
27-Dec
39
39
39
40
39.25

I have seven games in which I am at least 10 spots different on average from the average ranking of the other three components. The biggest difference I have is the New Orleans bowl between Southern Miss & Louisiana-Lafayette (Louisiana from here out). Neither team is a great or particularily good, but this game and it's setting seem to bring an entertaining game and great atmosphere every season. plus it's one of the first bowls and you should watch it. I am 25 spots different on this game and I'll defend that to anyone. Also, in the games I'm higher on category, we have the Camellia Bowl (13.67 spots), Armed Forces Bowl (12.33), and the Cure Bowl (12). The Camellia matches up two very good group of 5 teams who should play a fun game with good talent. The Armed Forces Bowl matches up two very good offenses and what more do you want the Friday before Christmas. Lastly, the Cure Bowl  matches up two more fun group of 5 that are on their way up and should score a good amount of points. All this adds up to me liking bowl game day 1 more than most. The games I'm down on, relatively, are the Holiday, Cotton, and TaxSlayer Bowls. Let's start with the outlier, the Cotton Bowl between Wisconsin and Western Michigan. It's not that I think it will be bad, but nothing about it gets me all that excited. Wisconsin is very good when healthy but that defense is starting to show it's cracks and the offense is more one-dimensional that Keanu Reaves face in the Matrix trilogy. Western Michigan has an underrated senior QB and the best senior WR (Corey Davis), but they are a clearly flawed team as well making this game good, one I'll watch out of loyalty but not a game that I'm going to freak out about. The other two are solid games that I have on the low side of Meh. Minnesota-Wazzou should be fun when the Wazzou offense is on the field but when Leidner and company trot out it's going to be the worst. As for Georgia Tech-Kentucky, well please tell me why I'm wrong because I don't get even the tepid excitement for this game. So there we are, my bowl ranks. I'll pair these with my system predictions.




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