For this set of
rookie rankings, I will not be including undrafted rookies. As we progress
through the off-season they will be included both in these ranks and overall
ranks. As for how I get to my rookie rankings, well that’s an interesting
conundrum. I’ve changed that process a bit this season. There are five
components I put into my ranks: 1) My numerical player grade from my draft work
which runs on a scale from 2-8. 2) My grade of the pick during the draft
combined with combined with the average approximate value of the draft pick.
So, a letter grade is turned into its % equivalent and then multiplied by
football perspectives AV values for each pick. For instance, Trubisky was
picked third (30.2 AV) but I had a D (60%) grade on the pick so his projected
AV is 18.42. The last three components are all related. They are current depth
chart position (Now), where I think the player will be at the end of the year
(EOS), and where I think that player will be in Year 3 (Y3). For depth chart
positions a 1st team grade is a 10, 2nd a 9, 3rd an 8 and
so on to 1 for 10th and below, with players, especially wide
receivers, who seem to fall somewhere between starter and 2nd teamer
getting half points. I also weight those three 20% Now, 30% EOS, and 50% Y3.
That’s my set up, things will definitely change as we go along in the process,
but for now if nothing else it’s a good place to start on the rookies. As for
the final column, it’s all of the components totaled up into one score, R.O.O.C
(Rookie Overall Opportunity Composite). This isn’t perfect and you could change
the scores based on personal preferences and rankings.
I was going to do a
top 25 but I ultimately decided to finish out the last tier and ended up with
31 players.
|
Player
|
Pos
|
Tm
|
PlGr
|
Gr
|
Pick
|
Now
|
EOS
|
Y3
|
ROOC
|
|
Corey Davis
|
WR
|
TEN
|
7.4
|
B+
|
5
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
1st
|
38.93
|
|
Christian McCaffrey
|
RB
|
CAR
|
7.2
|
A
|
8
|
2nd
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
37.61
|
|
Leonard Fournette
|
RB
|
JAC
|
7.1
|
C+
|
4
|
1st
|
1st
|
1st
|
36.97
|
|
John Ross
|
WR
|
CIN
|
7.3
|
A-
|
9
|
3rd
|
2nd/3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
35.36
|
|
Mitch Trubisky
|
QB
|
CHI
|
6.2
|
D
|
2
|
2nd
|
1st
|
1st
|
34.42
|
|
Patrick Mahomes II
|
QB
|
KC
|
6.6
|
B+
|
10
|
2nd
|
2nd
|
1st
|
33.81
|
|
Deshaun Watson
|
QB
|
HOU
|
6.7
|
A-
|
12
|
3rd
|
1st
|
1st
|
33.78
|
|
Mike Williams
|
WR
|
LAC
|
7.1
|
C+
|
7
|
3rd
|
2nd/3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
33.09
|
|
O.J. Howard
|
TE
|
TB
|
7.6
|
A+
|
19
|
2nd
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
33.05
|
|
David Njoku
|
TE
|
CLE
|
7.1
|
A
|
29
|
1st
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
29.75
|
|
Evan Engram
|
TE
|
NYG
|
7.3
|
C+
|
23
|
1st
|
1st
|
1st
|
28.54
|
|
Dalvin Cook
|
RB
|
MIN
|
7.2
|
A
|
41
|
2nd
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
27.52
|
|
Curtis Samuel
|
WR
|
CAR
|
6.7
|
A
|
40
|
3rd
|
2nd/3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
26.37
|
|
Zay Jones
|
WR
|
BUF
|
6.6
|
B-
|
37
|
2nd
|
2nd
|
1st/2nd
|
25.25
|
|
DeShone Kizer
|
QB
|
CLE
|
6.3
|
A
|
52
|
4th
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
24.67
|
|
Gerald Everett
|
TE
|
LAR
|
6.7
|
C+
|
44
|
3rd
|
2nd/3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
23.69
|
|
Joe Mixon
|
RB
|
CIN
|
7.2
|
C
|
48
|
3rd
|
2nd/3rd
|
1st
|
23.58
|
|
Adam Shaheen
|
TE
|
CHI
|
6.1
|
C
|
45
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
1st/2nd
|
22.74
|
|
Kareem Hunt
|
RB
|
KC
|
6.7
|
A+
|
86
|
3rd
|
2nd/3rd
|
1st
|
22.05
|
|
Taywan Taylor
|
WR
|
TEN
|
7.0
|
A+
|
72
|
7th
|
5th/6th
|
2nd
|
21.35
|
|
Carlos Henderson
|
WR
|
DEN
|
6.9
|
A+
|
82
|
5th
|
3rd/4th
|
2nd
|
21.35
|
|
Alvin Kamara
|
RB
|
NO
|
5.9
|
C+
|
67
|
3rd
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
20.41
|
|
JuJu Smith-Schuster
|
WR
|
PIT
|
6.1
|
C+
|
62
|
3rd/4th
|
4th
|
2nd/3rd
|
20.34
|
|
Chris Godwin
|
WR
|
TB
|
6.4
|
B+
|
84
|
5th
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
20.20
|
|
D'Onta Foreman
|
RB
|
HOU
|
6.5
|
B
|
89
|
3rd
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
20.10
|
|
Samaje Perine
|
RB
|
WAS
|
6.5
|
B+
|
114
|
3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
1st
|
19.87
|
|
James Conner
|
RB
|
PIT
|
5.5
|
A+
|
105
|
2nd
|
2nd
|
1st/2nd
|
19.75
|
|
Jonnu Smith
|
TE
|
TEN
|
6.2
|
A-
|
100
|
3rd/4th
|
3rd
|
2nd
|
19.53
|
|
ArDarius Stewart
|
WR
|
NYJ
|
6.3
|
B+
|
79
|
7th
|
5th/6th
|
2nd/3rd
|
19.05
|
|
Jordan Leggett
|
TE
|
NYJ
|
6.5
|
A
|
149
|
1st
|
1st
|
1st/2nd
|
18.87
|
|
Joe Williams
|
RB
|
SF
|
6.3
|
A-
|
121
|
4th
|
2nd/3rd
|
1st/2nd
|
18.81
|
Tier one consists of
three players: Davis, McCaffrey, and Fournette. With Davis & Fournette you
have the obvious facts that they should be their teams first option at their
positions. Both are top ten picks with Davis ultimately having the upper hand
because I think he fits into his landing spot a bit better and Rishard Matthews
is his biggest competition for touches, whereas, Fournette will still have to compete
with Yeldon and Ivory. As for McCaffrey, he has Stewart to deal with, but he
should be a great spell right away with + upside in the passing game.
Tier two consists of
the three quarterbacks taken in the first round which gives them a pretty
serious projected AV bump over Kizer, all four of whom I expect to be starting
year three. The other three are pass catchers in the form of Ross, Williams,
and Howard. Howard has a pretty good chance to start sometime this season, but
Williams and Ross have a considerable edge in projected AV. There is a
discernable difference in ROOC scores after Howard dropping almost a half
standard deviation in value from Howard to Njoku.
Njoku is actually
unique for me as I’m not sure if he’ll be the lone starting TE in Cleveland and
that’s the reason I put 1st/2nd for his EOS grade
compared to him being the presumed starter right now. Engram should, at worst,
add a threat down the seam for the Giants, Cook gives Minnesota a year one spell
for Latavius and a replacement in a couple years, and lastly Samuel add both a
quick underneath element and a deep option for the Panthers. There are a lot of
intriguing prospects in this group, and some darn good football players.
Out of tier 3, I
think the three that most intrigue me year one are Hunt, Mixon, and Jones.
Cincy is clearly not enamored with Bernard or Hill and Mixon brings some flash and
excitement to the field. I’ll add my caveat here that I won’t be touching Mixon
because I don’t care to think about him busting in a woman’s face while I’m
cheering on my fantasy team each week. Hunt is a personal favorite of mine in
this draft and with KC failing to commit to either West or Ware the past couple
of years when Charles is out I think Hunt has a chance to make a very solid
rookie impression. Last of that group is Jones who looks poised to be WR2 in
Buffalo. He’s got some work to do on his route refinement, but I don’t know who
is really poised to keep him off the field in that receiving corps. Long term
Hunt, Taylor, and Taylor’s teammate Henderson are the players I’d gamble on for
the future.
In the last tier,
Leggett is probably your day one starter for the Jets at TE, the Saints gave up
a lot for Kamara and that receiving back role in New Orleans is valuable, Perine
should compete right away in Washington, and Williams fits perfectly for
Shanahan’s zone running scheme.
As a final note, I
get my depth chart info from Ourlads.com,
