2017 Fantasy Football: First WR Ranks

You have your familiar 6 receivers, with a couple deep tiers following them up. It’s another strong group, but even though it ends up being right at the top for accuracy at the end of the season for me, they take well into camp to completely sort themselves out. With that in mind, here’s my WR ranks that are absolutely gonna piss you off.

Note: Same breakdown as the QBs: Players | Team | My Rank | Positional ADP | Difference

Elite Tier	There’s No Shame in this Tier
Odell Beckham, Jr. | NYG | 1 | 2 | -1	T.Y. Hilton | IND | 7 | 8 | -1
Antonio Brown | PIT | 2 | 1 | +1	Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 8 | 15 | -7
A.J. Green | CIN | 3 | 5 | -2	Dough Baldwin | SEA | 9 | 13 | -4
Jordy Nelson | GB | 4 | 6 | -2	Michael Thomas | NO | 10 | 7 | +3
Mike Evans | TB | 5 | 4 | +1	DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 11 | 11 | 0
Julio Jones | ATL | 6 | 3 | +3	Dez Bryant | DAL | 12 | 9 | +3
	Amari Cooper | OAK | 13 | 10 | +3

My top 6 is ADP top 6 and outside of having Julio a little lower there isn’t much here to talk about. Tier 2 is a bit different because of Thomas. I don’t get it, he’s continued to get at least 1000 yards and 120-130 targets with deteriorating QB play. At worst he’s a safe play with low downside, add a couple more TDs in 2017 and he’s a top-10 fantasy receiver. Other than Thomas, I’m 12 of 13 the same as positional ADP.

Top Level 2s and Good Starters Tier	Hey Look! Good Players Tier
Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 14 | 27 | -13	Donte Moncrief | IND | 28 | 30 | -2
Michael Crabtree | OAK | 15 | 21 | -6	Corey Coleman | CLE | 29 | 41 | -12
Keenan Allen | LAC | 16 | 19 | -3	Jeremy Maclin | BAL | 30 | 51 | -21
Alshon Jeffery | PHI | 17 | 16 | +1	Corey Davis | TEN | 31 | 36 | -5
Sammy Watkins | BUF | 18 | 17 | +1	DeSean Jackson | TB | 32 | 35 | -3
Martavis Bryant | PIT | 19 | 32 |-13	Jameson Crowder | WAS | 33 | 33 | 0
Eric Decker | TEN | 20 | 39 | -19	Cameron Meredith | CHI | 34 | 43 | -9
Golden Tate | DET | 21 | 24 | -3	Chris Conley | KC | 35 | 80 | -45
Jarvis Landry | MIA | 22 | 18 | +3	Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | 36 | 28 | +8
Allen Robinson | JAC | 23 | 14 | +9	Jordan Matthews | PHI | 37 | 44 | -7
Stefon Diggs | MIN | 24 | 29 | -5	Mike Wallace | BAL | 38 | 45 | -7
Julien Edelman | NE | 25 | 25 | 0	Randall Cobb | GB | 39 | 38 | +1
Brandin Cooks | NE | 26 | 12 | +14
Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 27 | 26 | +1

Our first really big difference is with Sanders, and I won’t bore you with the same speech I had for Thomas, but a slight bit of randomness to the positive and he has no trouble hitting high-end WR 2/ low-end WR 1. If Bryant reprises his role before suspension he won’t need a ton of targets to be a major factor on a week to week basis. There’s risk in him relapsing and being suspended indefinitely but the reports on him both on and off the field have been exemplary and I’m willing to buy in and take a swing at him as a mid-WR 2 pick. These ADPs are from June 11 so they don’t really fit up yet for either Decker or Maclin in their new surroundings. That said Decker is at worst a WR 2 and Maclin has upside concerns in my mind but 51 even when not on a team was far too low. I’m low on Cooks and I wouldn’t have a great retort if you threw my Bryant argument back in my face for Cooks, but I’ll try. Cooks has to battle for targets with Amendola, Gronk, Mitchell, Allen, and White, not to mention that Edelman is still probably going to see 150-160 targets. Coleman needs to stay healthy, and a close eye should be kept on him as the team heads to camp, but he has explosive upside and there was promise before missing weeks 3-8 in his rookie year. Conley will be a “plant your flag player” (h/t @HarrisFootball) for me this season. I’ll take it a step further and say that he’ll be the Chiefs receiver with the most targets. Yes, I’ve heard of Tyreek Hill, but last season he was used primarily near the line of scrimmage and I think Conley will be the inheritor of the Maclin role in the offense.

The Upside Tier	If I’m Right, I’m a Genius Tier
Bruce Ellington | SF | 40 | 87 | -47	Rishard Matthews | TEN | 55 | 42 | +13
Tyler Lockett | SEA | 41 | 58 | -17	Tyreek Hill | KC | 56 | 23 | +33
Sterling Shepard | NYG | 42 | 52 | -10	Will Fuller | HOU | 57 | 63 | -6
Tyrell Williams | LAC | 43 | 53 | -10	John Brown | ARI | 58 | 46 | +12
Brandon Marshall | NYG | 44 | 31 | +13	Cole Beasley | DAL | 59 | 64 | -5
Devante Parker | MIA | 45 | 40 | +5	Paul Richardson | SEA | 60 | 87 | -27
Marvin Jones | DET | 46 | 50 | -4	Albert Wilson | KC | 61 | 87 | -26
JJ Nelson | ARI | 47 | 71 | -27	Tyler Boyd | CIN | 62 | 87 | -25
Terelle Pryor | WAS | 48 | 22 | +26	Adam Thielen | MIN | 63 | 47 | +16
Davante Adams | GB | 49 | 20 | +29	Tajae Sharpe | TEN | 64 | 87 | -23
Josh Doctson | WAS | 50 | 55 | -5	Jaron Brown | ARI | 65 | 87 | -22
Quincy Enunwa | NYJ | 51 | 60 | -9	Braxton Miller | HOU | 66 | 87 | -21
Tavin Austin | LAR | 52 | 72 | -20	Pierre Garcon | SF | 67 | 37 | +30
Willie Snead | NO | 53 | 34 | +19	Jermaine Kearse | SEA | 68 | 87 | -19
Kenny Stills | MIA | 54 | 61 | -7

Alright, before we get to the thing any one of you who cares (none of you) will use as the epitaph on my headstone, let’s start with the upside tier. Ellington was the darling of the off-season last year, but a knee injury left him out in 2016. Pierre Garcon is his steady, if uninspiring, competition on the 49ers. My rank is about where Garcon’s positional ADP is and I’d much rather the upside of Ellington, in a vacuum, as my WR 4. It’s called the upside tier because of Lockett/Shepard/Williams who are all younger players I really like. JJ Nelson is so high because I just can’t trust John Brown to stay on the field and although I think of Brown as the #2 in Arizona, Nelson is probably going to be the second most targeted receiver on the team when the season finishes. DeSean Jackson was a mid-tier WR 3 last season and was able to cover for a good bit of Cousins inaccuracy deep and although I want Terelle Pryor to succeed on the field, I’m not sure he’s going to be able to replicate Jackson’s role well enough downfield to be as valuable as others think. As for Davante Adams, I don’t think Green Bay is going to throw as much this season as last, Adams had a dozen touchdowns last season, but failed to get to 1,000 yards on 121 targets. I don’t think he gets to 1,000 yards again and I think his TDs are in the 6-8 range. Which means he should probably be higher than this, but I’m not buying into his upside. Tavin Austin is Tyreek Hill with worse touchdown luck and still his team’s top receiver. I think they’re both WR 5s. I’m too low on Snead. I’m realizing this as I write this. It’ll be fixed. Now to what will probably the most rage inducing portion of any of the four major position group tiers. Hill and Garcon will certainly contribute to this, and I’ve always addressed this, but the real kicker is seven players that aren’t currently in the top 86 of positional ADP are in my top 68. Let’s group them up as we go; Richardson/Wilson/Boyd are all #3s on their teams, but all should have rather prominent roles. Richardson has a chance to shine before Lockett is fully healthy and has flashed at times. Wilson was already getting some time at the end of last season with the Chiefs and I don’t see that going away. Boyd was fairly impressive in his rookie year with the Bengals and I think the Ross addition is much more of a hit for LaFell going forward than it is for Boyd whose role is, and should be, as a slot receiver. Same goes for Sharpe. The addition of Decker and Davis means that he moves inside and fulfills a role that he fits rather nicely on a team that, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, should be a dynamic and multiple attack. Jaron Brown gets a boost, because of the others Brown’s inability to stay on the field. Braxton flashed as a rookie who hasn’t been playing his position long and with Fuller and Hopkins taking all the attention outside I believe that Miller has more upside and talent than Jaelen Strong as a slot receiver. Lastly is Kearse and he’s here because I’m all in on the Seahawks offense this season with a healthy Wilson. Might it bite me in the ass? Absolutely, but there’s talent and a half-decent line performance (I know!) leads to a lot of useful fantasy pieces.

These ranks will clear up as depth charts clear up through camp. This is the position I feel best about projecting, but they’re also the group that takes the most work and tweaking to get right. This is also the last of my four positional rankings in this first set and as such I’d like to thank you for reading. I look forward to the journey that will be the 2017 fantasy season, and to the discussion and ideas that will continue to make this even more enjoyable.

2017 Fantasy Football: First TE Ranks

Now to TEs, where there are five surefire difference makers and then…

Note: Same breakdown as the QBs: Players | Team | My Rank | Positional ADP | Difference

Elite Tier	Like, Extremely Good, but… Tier
Rob Gronkowski | NE | 1 | 1 | 0	Greg Olsen | CAR | 4 | 4 | 0
Jordan Reed | WAS | 2 | 3 | -1	Delanie Walker | TEN | 5 | 7 | -2
Travis Kelce | KC | 3 | 2 | +1

A group of 11 that gets us to the middle of the TE 2s.

Good Solid Fantasy Starters Tier	Known Commodities Tier
Jack Doyle | IND | 6 | 13 | -7	Charles Clay | BUF | 11 | 27 | -16
Kyle Rudolph | MIN | 7 | 8 | -1	Coby Fleener | NO | 12 | 16 | -4
Jimmy Graham | SEA | 8 | 5 | +3	Dwayne Allen | NE | 13 | 23 | -10
Martellus Bennett | GB | 9 | 9 | 0	Zach Ertz | PHI | 14 | 11 | +3
Tyler Eifert | CIN | 10 | 6 | +4	Jason Witten | DAL | 15 | 15 | 0
	Eric Ebron| DET | 16 | 12 | +4

That group of 11 is where we find the disagreements start. Jack Doyle is flying under the radar right now and I’m not really sure why. Luck reliably targets his tight ends and with Allen gone, Doyle assumes those targets. Is he the first player after those studs, I don’t know, but he deserves to be in the tier he’s in. Why is Charles Clay at 27 in positional ADP? Right now, the pass catchers in Buffalo are Sammy Watkins, and Zay Jones. Who’s taking Clay’s targets? With Allen, I may be over optimistic about his upside with the plethora of weapons now in New England, but even if I shuffle him to the bottom of the tier I’m still 7 spots higher on him than ADP right now.

Certainly, Some Upside Tier

Hunter Henry | LAC | 17 | 10 | +7

Cameron Brate | TB | 18 | 18 | 0

Antonio Gates | LAC | 19 | 25 | -6

Julius Thomas | MIA | 20 | 17 | +3

O.J. Howard | TB | 21 | 14 | +7

Evan Engram | NYG | 22 | 20 | +2

David Njoku | CLE | 23 | 19 | +4

Erik Swoope | IND | 24 | 36 | -12

Jesse James | PIT | 25 | 28 | -3

Zach Miller | CHI | 26 | 26 | 0

Alright the tier to get us all the way through the TE 2s. I’m low on all of the rookies, because rookie tight ends rarely perform. The biggest difference here is Swoope who averaged over 10 yards a target last season and I think Luck can support, and may need to with an O-line that has yet to gel, two tight ends. As for Henry, well I’m just not convinced that Gates doesn’t take just a little more of the work, and Henry is just a bit less effective in the red zone in 2017.

There we have it, the first TE rankings of the year. It’s a good group, and with the last two draft classes we’re going to see it stay deep for a while going forward.

2017 Fantasy Football: First RB Rankings

On to RB, where I’m very confident about my top 3, but not the order or who comes next.

Note: Same breakdown as the QBs: Players | Team | My Rank | Positional ADP | Difference

Elite Tier	Big Ol’ Tier of Starters
Le’Veon Bell | PIT | 1 | 3 | -2	Lamar Miller | HOU | 4 | 11 | -7
David Johnson | ARI | 2 | 1 | +1	LeSean McCoy | BUF | 5 | 4 | +1
Ezekial Elliott | DAL | 3 | 2 |+1	Melvin Gordon | LAC | 6 | 5 | +1
	Todd Gurley | LAR | 7 | 10 | -3
	Jordan Howard | CHI | 8 | 7 | +1
	DeMarco Murray | TEN | 9 | 8 | +1
	Jay Ajayi | MIA | 10 | 9 | +1
	Isaiah Crowell | CLE | 11 | 14 | -3
	Devonta Foreman | ATL | 12 | 6 | +6
	Leonard Fornette | JAX | 13 | 12 | +1

So, there isn’t much drama in my top two tiers outside of Miller and Foreman, who I just have in the wrong half of the RB 1 discussion according to ADP. I think we see a closer to 50/50 split for Foreman and Coleman and Miller has been really good, but has had incredibly shitty TD luck the last couple of seasons. 

Starters with ?s Tier	Ya’ll Really Gonna Hate This Tier
Tevin Coleman | ATL | 14 | 19 | -5	Bilal Powell | NYJ | 21 | 26 | -5
Carlos Hyde | SF | 15 | 15 | 0	Paul Perkins | NYG | 21 | 30 | -5
Mark Ingram | NO | 16 | 18 | -2	Jeremy Hill | CIN | 23 | 45 | -17
Frank Gore | IND | 17 | 31 | -14	Matt Forte | NYJ |24 | 37 | -11
Ameer Abdullah | DET | 18 | 25 | -7	Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 25 | 42 | -13
LeGarrette Blount | PHI | 19 | 33 | -14	Marshawn Lynch | OAK | 26 | 13 | +12
Dough Martin | TB | 20 | 29 | -9	Spencer Ware | KC | 27 | 17 | +12
	C.J. Anderson | DEN | 28 | 20 | +8
	Derrick Henry | TEN | 29 | 32 | -10
	Rob Kelley | WAS | 30 | 36 | -7
	Terrance West | BAL | 31 | 48 | -17

I have Gore and Blount 14 spots ahead of where they’re going and we know why Gore is that much lower (age), but Blount is a bit of a mystery. He’s clearly the best back in Philly and I think they’re going to want to keep things easy for Wentz in year two. As for tier four, well the title tells all. I’m not convinced yet that Mixon is going to be the best RB this year, and it makes sense logically to get all they can before letting Hill walk next year and getting Mixon comfortable on and off the field. I think we see a Powell/Forte split pretty close to 50/50 and that makes Forte a fringe RB 2. I know we all love McCaffrey, but I’m not sure that Stewart is going to be of so little use in fantasy that he’s a mid-tier RB 4. As for Lynch & Ware I’m not sold for difference reasons. For Lynch that reason is age, and the fact that he’s been out of football for a year and wasn’t great when we last saw him. With Ware, it’s been his inability to beat out West, as well as, the draft capital and my affection for Kareem Hunt. The last of these two tiers Terrance West. West is the lead back in Baltimore, he’s going to have four weeks where he’s the main back, and Kenneth Dixon will still have to prove he’s what we hoped he’d be coming out of the draft last season. West isn’t going to disappear when Dixon comes back, but 4 weeks of a definite starter is worth more than RB48 for me.

Starter Stragglers and Receiving Backs Tier

Thomas Rawls | SEA | 32 | 49 | -17

Ty Montgomery |GB | 33 | 22 | +11

Theo Riddick | DET | 34 | 35 | -1

Dion Lewis | NE | 35 | 51 | -16

Christian McCaffrey | CAR | 36 | 16 | +20

Duke Johnson | CLE | 37 | 44 | -7

Darren Sproles | PHI | 38 | 50 | -12

Charles Sims | TB | 39 | 54 | -15

Joe Mixon | CIN | 40 | 21 | +19

Latavius Murray | OAK | 41 | 38 | +3

Alvin Kamara | NO | 42 | 52 | -10

Danny Woodhead | BAL | 43 | 34 | +9

Chris Thompson | WAS | 44 | 64 | -20

In this last tier, let’s start out with the question, “What’s the deal with the Seahawks running backs?”. My money’s on Rawls right now, but Lacy’s going to play a role, and Prosise is going to be a factor in the pass game, but Rawls is the incumbent and that’s where I’m sitting right now. Take what I said about Rawls and that’s my argument for Lewis. I may change my mind, the reports out of camp may sway me a bit, but Lewis is the talent I want out of New England. For McCaffrey, well RB16 was Spencer Ware last season who had 922 yards rushing and 447 receiving with 5 TDs, and RB36 was James White with 166 yards rushing and 551 yards receiving with 5 TDs. Maybe I’m a touch low at the moment, but I think we see closer to 800 yards than 1300 for McCaffrey this season. Sproles had 865 total yards and 4 TDs last season, he’s not flashy but he’s well worth a stash and spot start as a RB 4. Sims, if healthy, gets four starts all to himself to start the season. Will change if it doesn’t look like he’s going to be healthy. I mean don’t give me too much grief I have him as a RB 4 and 2 years ago when healthy he was a RB 2 on just 177 rushes+targets. I explained this Mixon rank when I talked about Hill above, but if you didn’t read that (I don’t know why you’d have read down here then) then it boils down to them getting Mixon acclimated to his surroundings and using up the last of Hill’s value in a walk year. Lastly, we have Chris Thompson in Washington who had 700 yards and 5 TDs total last year and I don’t think Perine affects his value as much as it affects the upside for Kelley.

So, there we are done with the RBs. Getting a little deeper at the top with some young talent poised for big workloads, but overall, it’s a muddled mess in the middle. Should shake out pretty quickly as camps begin.