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Monday, October 9, 2017

2017 College Football: Week 6 Look Back

Alright new set up this week with an all results blog, instead of at the top of the weekly preview. Now that we have a solid sample set I’m going to start comparing results and trying to pick out trends.

Category
Right
Wrong
Right%
Season
Right
Season
Wrong
Season
Right%
All
37
21
64%
300
98
75%
FBS
36
21
63%
218
89
71%
0-3
7
4
64%
31
24
56%
3+ to 7
6
8
43%
22
27
45%
7+ to 14
12
6
67%
85
31
73%
14+ to 21
9
1
90%
62
12
84%
21+ to 31
3
2
60%
58
4
94%
31+ to 42
-
-
-
34
0
100%
42+
-
-
-
8
0
100%

There isn’t much separation just yet, but this was the first week of a noticeable difference in favor of the new numbers set. Every category was over 50% this week and the new numbers were four wins better. Creating some separation after 6 weeks.

Category
Right
Wrong
Right%
Season
Right
Season
Wrong
Season
Right%
All
41
17
71%
304
94
76%
FBS
40
17
70%
224
82
73%
0-3
3
1
75%
17
22
44%
3+ to 7
4
4
50%
29
23
56%
7+ to 14
7
6
54%
62
26
70%
14+ to 21
5
3
63%
62
17
78%
21+ to 31
18
2
90%
72
5
94%
31+ to 42
4
1
80%
46
1
98%
42+
-
-
-
16
0
100%

As for the points differential, well, Vegas is a couple points better on average than either set, and we see some slight separation here too for the new set of numbers by a little under a tenth of a point.

Current 
My Diff
(All)
My Diff
(FBS)
Veg Diff
(All)
Veg Diff
(FBS)
Gms
(FBS)
Week 1
15.327
15.255
16.600
15.000
5 (4)
Week 2
14.513
11.569
14.39
11.275
86 (40)
Week 3
15.355
16.079
16.317
12.652
71 (46)
Week4
17.112
16.126
15.538
14.784
65 (51)
Week 5
14.151
13.48
12.754
12.402
59 (56)
Week 6
14.24
14.35
11.796
11.943
54 (53)
Week 7
14.875
15.107
11.517
11.702
58 (57)
Season
15.060
14.535
13.936
12.513
398 (307)

Exper.
My Diff
(All)
My Diff
(FBS)
Veg Diff
(All)
Veg Diff
(FBS)
Gms
(FBS)
Week 1
15.327
15.255
16.600
15.000
5 (4)
Week 2
14.601
11.725
14.39
11.275
86 (40)
Week 3
15.581
16.287
16.317
12.652
71 (46)
Week4
16.696
15.237
15.538
14.784
65 (50)
Week 5
15.377
14.722
12.754
12.402
59 (56)
Week 6
13.751
13.929
11.796
11.943
54 (53)
Week 7
14.297
14.410
11.517
11.702
58 (57)
Season
15.083
14.464
13.936
12.513
398 (307)

I’ve probably been too hard on my current system this week as I look at the results overall, but from week to week I’ve found more common ground in the overall ranks with the new set of numbers.

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