2017 College Football: Week 7 Top 25s

I got behind schedule last week and didn’t really catch up. This week I changed up my process a bit so hopefully this will help going forward. The experimental numbers take a more hands on approach than the current set do. (Full ranks for current and experimental sets)That said…

We finally see some change in the top 25 and the top 10 in the current set of numbers. Georgia moves up, probably to where it should have been a couple of weeks ago. Florida State takes a dip after a couple poor performances. Wisconsin continues to win and win solidly, but I’m not sure the upside is much more than fringe top 10 with a weak schedule. Miami (FL) is the biggest mover this week coming up from 29 to rest much closer to its current perceived value, but still as the fourth best ACC team. If it helps, my numbers bother me sometimes as well. LSU moves back to 20 after a good win on the road at Florida, and Kentucky sneaks back in at 25.

Rank	Team	Rating	Last Week Rank
1	Alabama	25.879	1
2	Washington	21.098	2
3	Clemson	19.714	3
4	Ohio State	17.021	4
5	Penn State	17.013	5
6	Georgia	15.240	10
7	Auburn	15.146	6
8	Washington State	15.102	9
9	USC	14.183	8
10	Wisconsin	13.704	12
11	Florida State	13.385	7
12	Oklahoma	11.272	11
13	Oklahoma State	10.963	14
14	Colorado	10.917	13
15	TCU	9.451	16
16	Virginia Tech	9.289	18
17	Georgia Tech	8.523	17
18	Miami (FL)	8.131	29
19	USF	8.086	22
20	LSU	8.085	28
21	Oregon	8.075	19
22	Michigan	8.010	15
23	Texas A&M	7.969	21
24	Louisville	7.892	20
25	Kentucky	7.851	26
	Dropped Out
26	Tennessee	7.803	23
27	Florida	7.666	24
28	Vanderbilt	7.544	25

As we move to looking at the new set of numbers it’s becoming immensely clear to me that an adjustment to my system will be necessary this off-season. I need to strike a balance between a system that doesn’t make swings just for the sake of adjustment (current system) and a system that moves a bit quicker to make adjustments based on results and performance. The experimental system has caught and surpassed my current system on a basis of accuracy, or more accurately, based on difference from actual results. A combining of the two will allow me to more quickly eliminate the preseason ranks from the predictions, but I want/need to keep some semblance of the stability in ranks that we see in the current system. There is lots of tumult from week to week in the experimental rankings, and that makes them more adaptable, but I we also see teams drop or rise and return to similar rankings from week to week and that is frivolous change that needn’t be made. Sorry for the ramblings, I needed to verbalize this to start to figure out what changes need to be made. I think limiting the swings in the new system, and a quicker deletion of the impact of the preseason rankings are necessary, but, a games played component for the phase out may be necessary to ease the smoothing out process.

Again, sorry about the ramble, it’s more therapeutic writing, but it’s the point of following both systems. In the experimental top 25, the first thing I notice is that the top four swaps in Georgia for Ohio State and that seems fine. Washington State and Wisconsin move up after good in conference performances, Oklahom takes a sizable seven spot drop for the Iowa State fiasco, TCU falls a touch off hard fought win against WVU, and Miami continues to correct up after a good win over formerly 18^th ranked FSU. 20-25 shows the most turnover outside of 23^rd ranked Georgia Tech, with UCF making the jump to 20 after back to back thrashings of AAC foes, and if I’m honest I think UCF/SDSU/Stanford all self-corrected here because of some transcription errors that I only just caught and rectified this week. Vandy falls back to, if we’re honest, they should have been all along, FSU/UF took rivalry losses, and Colorado takes a long fall to a much more understandable rank. You see here why I like this set of numbers, and if I’ve fixed the issues, hopefully will see less huge swings at the top.

Rank	Team	Rating	Last Week Rank
1	Alabama	51.149	1
2	Washington	41.341	2
3	Clemson	40.670	3
4	Georgia	36.546	6
5	Penn State	35.604	4
6	Ohio State	32.991	5
7	Wisconsin	28.928	11
8	Washington State	28.317	12
9	Auburn	27.872	8
10	USC	25.273	10
11	Oklahoma State	24.456	9
12	TCU	23.987	13
13	Miami (FL)	22.085	17
14	Oklahoma	21.841	7
15	Notre Dame	18.531	27
16	USF	17.733	15
17	Virginia Tech	16.882	20
18	Michigan	16.228	14
19	Oregon	14.347	16
20	UCF	14.159	34
21	NC State	14.014	29
22	San Diego State	13.434	32
23	Georgia Tech	13.170	23
24	Stanford	12.895	43
25	Kentucky	12.507	26
	Dropped Out
27	Louisville	11.540	21
30	Utah	11.027	19
31	Florida State	10.879	18
34	Florida	9.934	22
37	Vanderbilt	8.943	25
39	Colorado	7.592	24

There we have it, we’re quickly encroaching on the half way point in the season, and we’re learning a lot. I’m looking forward to continuing to watch how both sets of numbers perform and improving my system as time moves along. Thanks to all who read what I write, and sorry for missing last week.