Wide Receivers
We’ve
had some interesting Wide Receiver classes in recent years and 2018 may be the
most closely grouped class that I can remember. It’s very much choose your own
adventure and there a solid, yet unspectacular, player for just about every
receiver prototype. There lies the problem with ranking this class, how do you
separate players by type and upside, but be realistic about what players are
right now. I could waffle a bunch more, but let’s just get to the rankings.
1)
Calvin
Ridley, Jr, Alabama, 6’ 1/2” 189 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – Targets: 99, 10.74 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 63.64%, 40: 4.43, 3-Cone: 6.88, Short Shuttle: 4.41
2)
Dante
Pettis, Sr, Washington, 6’ 1/2” 186 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – Targets: 99, 8.91 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 63.64%, 40: 4.48, 3-Cone: 6.87, Short Shuttle: N/a
3)
Michael
Gallup, Sr, Colorado State, 6’ 2 7/8” 205 lbs – Starter (7.1)
Stats – Targets: 167, 9.27 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 59.88%, 40: 4.45, 3-Cone: 6.95, Short Shuttle: 4.37
Now
for more waffling. What differentiates these three from the rest of the group
is that I felt like they each won through matured route running and
understanding of concepts. Ridley is the best route-runner in the class and
although the pass was rarely the main focus at Alabama last season Ridley’s
dedication to the craft always seemed to shine through. Ridley is big enough to
play outside and has the agility scores and technique to win inside as well.
Pettis consistently found space at Washington and it’s kind of earie how
similar him and Ridley are physically and in the timed drills. Pettis worked a
bit more underneath at Washington than Ridley did at Alabama and is a slightly
less proficient route runner. Laslty, Gallup, the receiver who I’m almost
assuredly higher on than most of the boards you may have looked at. The
Colorado State offense wasn’t as good or efficient as it was last season but
that didn’t stop Gallup from shining through. Gallup is bigger than the other
two and although he’s will primarily be an outside receiver at the next level
he has the lateral agility to create space in the short to intermediate areas
as well as after the catch.
4)
Courtland
Sutton, Jr, SMU, 6’ 3 3/8” 218 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – Targets: 129, 10.21 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 52.71%, 40: 4.54, 3-Cone: 6.57, Short Shuttle: 4.11
5)
James
Washington, Sr, Oklahoma State, 5’ 11” 213 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – Targets: 117, 15.34 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 63.25%, 40: 4.50, 3-Cone: 7.11, Short Shuttle: 4.32
This
brings us to the biggest enigma of the class, Courtland Sutton. Mr. Sutton is
one of the taller receivers in the class but what really stands out here and on
film is his agility in the short areas. At 6.57 and 4.11 second respectively
his 3-cone and shuttle times look much more like you might expect to find on a
small less athletic slot or as we’ll see with many people’s number receiver the
6-foot-tall DJ Moore. Sutton isn’t as physical as you might expect but he
creates separation in the tight spot well and flashes the ability to make the
spectacular look routine in most of his games. James Washington is a different
kind of oddity, at 5’ 11” he’s a shorter receiver who made his bones at the
college level mostly in the deep passing game. In fact, his propensity for big
plays and deep separation along with his adjusted yards per target left just a touch
underwhelmed with his performances and technique in jump ball situations. All
that’s to say, if he can continue to create that type of separation at the
second and third levels in the (I think he can), then he’ll be an asset for
just about anyone in the NFL.
6)
Anthony
Miller, Sr, Memphis, 5’ 11 1/8” 201 lbs – Expected Starter (6.9)
Stats – Targets: 148, 12.23 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 64.86%, 40: 4.50, 3-Cone: 6.65, Short Shuttle: 4.26
7)
DJ
Moore, Jr, Maryland, 6’ 0” 209 lbs – Expected Starter (6.9)
Stats – Targets: 130, 9.13 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 61.54%, 40: 4.42, 3-Cone: 6.95, Short Shuttle: 4.07
Most
of what I said about James Washington applies to Anthony Miller except that I
think Miller will spend more time equally split between outside and inside than
Washington. I’m lower on DJ Moore than most, I get the appeal he’s freaky, and can
scoot through a defense, my problem however was that I expected to see him
create more separation. Even when accounting for poor QB play, and there was
plenty, Moore just didn’t consistently get the separation you’d expect an
athlete of his caliber to get consistently.
8)
Keke
Coutee, Jr, Texas Tech, 5’ 9 3/4” 181 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)
Stats – Targets: 121, 13.40 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 76.86%, 40: 4.43, 3-Cone: 6.93, Short Shuttle: 4.15
9)
Jordan
Lasley, Jr, UCLA, 6’ 1” 203 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)
Stats – Targets: 203, 13.31 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 63.89%, 40: 4.50, 3-Cone: 7.27, Short Shuttle: 4.19
KeKe
Coutee is the first player that I think will be exclusively a slot player and
with the NFL spreading the field vertically more often and more rules to
protect defenseless players a speedster like Coutee is more valuable than ever.
Throw on any Tech game from the past two years and it won’t take too long to
see Keke making someone look foolish. Jordan Lasley is the opposite of Coutee
in that I don’t think you’ll see in him in the slot very often. Lasley is the
receiver equivalent of a one cut and go running back. Lasley has a limited
route tree but he does it well and is lengthy deep threat to test a secondary.
10) DaeSean Hamilton, Sr, Penn State,
6’ 5/8” 203 lbs – Expected Starter (6.7)
Stats – Targets: 82, 12.83 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 64.63%, 40: 4.52, 3-Cone: 6.84, Short Shuttle: 4.15
Last
in the top 10 is DaeSean Hamilton, a man whose biggest flaw is being on a team with
Saquon Barkley and Mike Gesicki. DaeSean is a better version of Jordan
Matthews. He’s a big slot with good route understanding, good hands, and toughness
over the middle. He’ll need to find the right home at the next level but in the
right fit he’ll thrive and cause defensive coordinators fits.
11) Christian Kirk, Jr, Texas
A&M, 5’ 10 3/8” 209 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)
Stats – Targets: 113, 9.84 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 62.83%, 40: 4.47, 3-Cone: 7.09, Short Shuttle: 4.45
12) Jaleel Scott, Sr, New Mexico
State, 6’ 4 3/4” 218 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)
Stats – Targets: 218, 10.71 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 64.96%, 40: 4.56, 3-Cone: 7.06, Short Shuttle: 4.25
13) Antonio Callaway, Jr, Florida, 5’
10 5/8” 200 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – Targets: 85, 9.16 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 63.53%, 40: 4.41, 3-Cone: 7.00, Short Shuttle: 4.33
14) Allen Lazard, Sr, Iowa State, 6’
4 5/8” 225 lbs – Expected Starter (6.4)
Stats – Targets: 130, 8.72 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 54.62%, 40: 4.55, 3-Cone: 7.11, Short Shuttle: 4.33
15) Cedrick Wilson, Sr, Boise State,
6’ 2 2/4” 188 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)
Stats – Targets: 136, 12.25 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 61.03%, 40: 4.55, 3-Cone: 6.89, Short Shuttle: 4.23
16) Braxton Berrios, Sr, Miami (FL),
5’ 8 5/8” 184 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)
Stats – Targets: 86, 9.92 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 63.95%, 40: 4.44, 3-Cone: 6.72, Short Shuttle: 4.18
17) Daurice Fountain, Sr, Northern Iowa,
6’ 1 1/2” 206 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – Targets: 118, 9.95 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 55.93%, 40: 4.51, 3-Cone: 7.05, Short Shuttle: 4.29
18) Equanimeous St. Brown, Jr, Notre
Dame, 6’ 4 3/4” 214 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – Targets: 74, 8.00 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 44.59%, 40: 4.48, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a
19) Trey Quinn, Jr, SMU, 5’ 11 3/8” 214
lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats – Targets: 155, 9.59 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 73.55%, 40: 4.55, 3-Cone: 4.19, Short Shuttle: 6.91
20) Jonah Trinnaman, Sr, BYU, 5’ 10 1/2”
192 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats – Targets: 46, 6.63 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 52.17%, 40: 4.30, 3-Cone: 6.96, Short Shuttle: 4.36
21) Tre’Quan Smith, Jr, UCF, 6’ 2” 210
lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats – Targets: 86, 16.53 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 68.60%, 40: 4.49, 3-Cone: 6.97, Short Shuttle: 4.50
22) DJ Chark, Sr, LSU, 6’ 2 7/8” 199
lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats – Targets: 68, 13.70 AY/T, Catch
Rate: 58.82%, 40: 4.34, 3-Cone: N/a, Short Shuttle: N/a
I
put the rest of my top 20 plus ties at the bottom to give you a few more names
to look at. These are mostly guys with specific skills or one trick who can develop
into more. In this group the favorites to me are Kirk, Scott, Fountaine, and
Smith in no particular order.
This
is the second solid, relatively deep, but relatively low upside receiver group
in a row. Or maybe a couple of ridiculous prospects in the last decade have
ruined the traditional maturation process for NFL wide receivers and we all
need to recalibrate. That said there are a lot of guys I’d be willing to take a
flyer on after round 3 with the understanding that special teams value and our
teams coaching ability will be crucial.
This
tight end class is kind of a bummer coming off the bumper crop that was the
2017 draft. That said there’s a pair of players that separated themselves from
the pack for me, a few intriguing guys, and then the rest is take your pick.
1)
Mike
Gesicki, Sr, Penn State, 6’ 5 1/2” 247 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – 9.69 AY/T, Catch Rate: 75.00%,
3-cone: 6.76, Short Shuttle: 4.10, Broad Jump: 10’ 9”
2)
Dallas
Goedert, Sr, South Dakota St, 6’ 4 5/8” 256 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)
Stats – 9.66 AY/T, Catch Rate: 55.81%,
3-cone: 7.02, Short Shuttle: 4.31, Broad Jump: 10’ 1”
Alright
we’ll start off with the consensus guys. Gesicki and Goedert are pretty
comparable prospects overall. Both big bodied, athletic tight ends. Goedert is
a better blocker than Gesicki, but Gesicki is more athletic and gives you a
very dynamic player in space moving forward.
3)
Ian
Thomas, Sr, Indiana, 6’ 3 5/8” 259 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)
Stats – 12.77 AY/T, Catch Rate: 67.57%,
3-cone: 7.15, Short Shuttle: 4.20, Broad Jump: 9’ 3”
Ian
Thomas was one of the bigger surprises when I went to watch him. He’s quick in
space he blocks well and he flashed against their best competition. When it all
shakes out for this class I don’t think I’ll have any regrets about having Thomas
this high.
4)
Jaylen
Samuels, Sr, NC State,5’ 11 1/2” 225 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)
Stats – 6.88 AY/T, Catch Rate: 77.55%,
3-cone: 6.93, Short Shuttle: 4.28, Broad Jump: 10’ 1”
I might
have regrets with Samuels at 4. Let’s start off with a disclaimer: Samuels is
not a pure tight end, he’s not Ditka, Bubba Franks, O.J. Howard, or even Jimmy
Graham. Samuels is an offensive weapon, H-back and should be used in the pass
and run game from multiple different spots in the formation. There was no good
place to rank him between RB/WR/TE so I chose here because I think this is who
you’ll compare him in value when discussing him in the future.
5)
Tyler
Conklin, Sr, Central Michigan, 6’ 3” 254 lbs – Expected Starter (6.3)
Stats – 9.24 AY/T, Catch Rate: 53.85%,
3-cone: 7.13, Short Shuttle: 4.23, Broad Jump: 10’ 0”
6)
Hayden
Hurst, Jr, South Carolina, 6’ 4” 247 lbs – Expected Starter (6.2)
Stats – 9.49 AY/T, Catch Rate: 69.84%,
3-cone: 7.19, Short Shuttle: 4.37, Broad Jump: 10’ 0”
7)
Mark
Andrews, Jr, Oklahoma, 6’ 5 1/8” 256 lbs – Expected Starter (6.1)
Stats –12.68 AY/T, Catch Rate: 70.79%,
3-cone: 7.34, Short Shuttle: 4.38, Broad Jump: 9’ 5”
Hayden
Hurst is the elephant in the room at this pick, and while I get to some extent
the excitement surrounding him I’m more worried about two things: age and
explosiveness. Hurst will be 25 opening day of the season and yes you shouldn’t
draft looking past the first contract, how much more room for growth is there.
I just don’t see the separation from other prospects that you’d ideally want to
see from an older prospect. Which brings us back to Conklin. Conklin has some
injury concern but he was good in-line and in space for the Chippewas in 2017. Lastly
in this group and the last of the expected starters is Mark Andrews from Oklahoma.
He’s here because he always seemed to be open. Some of that is scheme and is
why his grade is this relatively low, add in he’s a bit of a stiff hipped
athlete (slow 3-cone) and just all around isn’t as explosive as most of the
class.
8)
Troy
Fumagalli, Sr, Wisconsin, 6’ 4 3/4” 247 lbs – Potential Starter (5.8)
Stats – 8.55 AY/T, Catch Rate: 63.01%,
3-cone: INJ, Short Shuttle: INJ, Broad Jump: INJ
Take
what I said for Andrews and just take a little more shine off of it for
Fumagalli. He’s a serviceable tight end who’ll make a roster, play and practice
hard and probably be useful, but I’m not sure how much more there is to add to
his game.
9)
Deon
Yelder, Sr, WKU, 6’ 3 1/4” 255 lbs – Potential Starter (5.6)
Stats – 11.93 AY/T, Catch Rate: 75.36%,
3-cone: 7.32, Short Shuttle: 4.64, Broad Jump: 10’ 0”
10) Jordan Akins, Sr, UCF, 6’ 3” 249
lbs – Expected Starter (5.5)
Stats – 12.60 AY/T, Catch Rate: 73.85%,
3-cone: 7.29, Short Shuttle: 4.38, Broad Jump: 10’ 2”
Yelder
and Akins are all about upside. Both were chunk players at the high G5 level
and both produced well with sure hands. There’s a lot of work to do for both
but there’s a good bit of potential there as well.
So
definitely a lesser TE crop than last season, but there are a few players to work
with here and Goedert and Gesicki have the potential to be above average options
at the next level.
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