2018 NFL Draft: Running Backs

Next up for our draft week previews are the running backs and we’re in a really nice place for running back play at both the college and pro levels. For the second straight class we have a handful of running backs that should be able to make a sizable impact in the league right away.

1)     Saquon Barkley, Jr, Penn State, 6’ 0”, 233 lbs – Starter (7.5)

Stats – 271 Touches, 7.38 AY/R, 9.84 AY/T, 40: 4.40, 3C: N/a, SS: 4.24

Saquon is just a step below Gurley and Elliott coming out, and to be fair to Saquon he has a different skill set than those other backs. Yes, he’s bigger than either of the other two, but he isn’t as accomplished between the tackles. He’s by no means a bum between the tackles, but he looks for home runs when running inside instead of taking what is there at times. That said what he lacks in pure downhill running he makes up for as the best back in the passing game of the group. You routinely see Barkley’s balance on display when he’s out in space as a receiver and it’s where he truly separates himself from the rest of the running backs.

2)     Derrius Guice, Jr, LSU, 5’ 10.5”, 224 lbs – Starter (7.2)

Stats – 255 Touches, 6.13 AY/R, 7.39 AY/T, 40: 4.49, 3C: N/a, SS: N/a

If you want power inside, let me introduce you to Mr. Guice. Guice is a downhill force and at times in 2016 outshined Leonard Fournette in LSU’s offense. Guice has some injury questions after missing time this season, but he has the chance to be a very special back as a downhill runner with just enough creative wiggle when he runs.

3)     Nick Chubb, Sr, Georgia, 5’ 10 7/8”, 227 lbs – Starter (7.1)

Stats – 227 Touches, 7.27 AY/R, 6.00 AY/T, 40: 4.52, 3C: 7.09, SS: 4.25

Chubb could realistically be the best of the bunch. A few years back it looked like Chubb was ready to take the mantle and potentially outshine Gurley but, as with Gurley, Chubb had a major knee injury and missed a season and spent 2016 looking like less than his former self. 2017 was much closer to 100% but he was still missing something. Those worries are all but past considering what he did at the combine. 4.52/4.25/7.09 in the 40 + agility drills are excellent numbers for a player of Chubb’s stature. We’ll have to wait and see if the hypothesis that he’s completely back are founded or not but one more thing to note is Chubb touched the ball 62 more times than fellow backfield mate and very talented running back Sony Michel.

4)     Sony Michel, Sr, Georgia, 5’ 10 5/8”, 214 lbs – Starter (7.1)

Stats – 165 Touches, 9.75 AY/R, 7.69 AY/T, 40: 4.54, 3C: N/a, SS: 4.21

Michel was the “scat” back for Georgia. I’m hesistant to actually call him that because he wasn’t merely the third down or receiving back or an outside runner. Michel is an all-purpose back that is stout enough to run the ball between the tackles and make defenders miss in space. What give Chubb the slight edge within the same grade is the testing numbers at roughly the same height, but a dozen pounds lighter.

5)     Royce Freeman, Sr, Oregon, 5’ 11.5”, 229 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)

Stats – 258 Touches, 7.25 AY/R, 9.65 AY/T, 40: 4.54, 3C: 6.90, SS: 4.16

Royce Freeman is a back that seems to have #DraftTwitter split. Some see him as a product of the system he was in at Oregon, not to mention the offensive line he was playing behind. Others, like me, see a big back with wonderful feet and agility, and enough speed to separate at the second level. Freeman like Barkley was more productive as a receiver than as a runner and at the same weight as Chubb bested both his times.

6)     Kerryon Johnson, Sr, Auburn, 5’ 11.5”, 213 lbs – Expected Starter (7.0)

Stats – 309 Touches, 6.04 AY/R, 8.95 AY/T, 40: 4.52, 3C: 7.07, SS: 4.29

Kerryon Johnson is another #DraftTwitter enigma and one of two backs in my top 10 with 300+ touches last season. Johnson was clearly the spark that made Auburn’s offense function most efficiently. Late in the year as the hits took a bit of a toll it became clear that Johnson made a very effective offense move. He’s shifty in the hole while still being able to run through arm tackles. His athletic testing leaves him just a touch behind the top four backs but he’s well positioned to make a NFL rushing game better.

7)     Rashaad Penny, Sr, San Diego State, 5’ 11”, 220 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)

Stats – 308 Touches, 9.24 AY/R, 6.68 AY/T, 40: 4.46, 3C: N/a, SS: N/a

Penny is a quintessential downhill one cut and go runner, and what left me puzzled on this evaluation was how a player with such a reputation in the kick return game seemed so stiff hipped in the rushing game. That said 4.4 speed is always useful, and one should think of Penny as the 80% version of Leonard Fournette.

8)     Ronald Jones II, Jr, USC, 5’ 11”, 205 lbs – Expected Starter (6.8)

Stats – 275 Touches, 7.28 AY/R, 12.14 AY/T, 40: INJ, 3C: INJ, SS: INJ

Ronald Jones without a pretty long list of soft tissue injuries is in the top 5 of this class. Jones is electric in the passing game and was bested in adjusted yards per target by just one player in my top 40 running backs. Jones is a smaller back and may end up as a third down back to start his career but if he can stay healthy he is capable of being an every down back.

9)     John Kelly, Jr, Tennessee, 5’ 9 7/8”, 205 lbs – Expected Starter (6.6)

Stats – 226 Touches, 4.99 AY/R, 6.36 AY/T, 40: 4.64, 3C: 7.13, SS: 4.22

Ditto for John Kelly. Coming on the heels of fellow Volunteer Alvin Kamara, Kelly is the new scat back de jour. Kelly is a little bowling ball of a back. He seems to bounce of first contact and has quick feet to utilize small spaces to create yardage. Kelly probably isn’t on the level of Kamara, but I didn’t rate Kamara on the level of Kamara (thanks to Butch and his workload). Get Kelly in space and he’ll be a weapon for any half way intelligent staff.

10)  Bo Scarbrough, Jr, Penn State, 6’ 1 3/8”, 228 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)

Stats – 141 Touches, 5.99 AY/R, 4.95 AY/T, 40: 4.52, 3C: N/a, SS: 4.34

10)  Justin Jackson, Sr, Northwestern, 6’ 0”, 193 lbs – Expected Starter (6.5)

Stats – 331 Touches, 5.27 AY/R, 4.68 AY/T, 40: 4.50, 3C: 6.81, SS: 4.07

I’ll compare/contrast the two backs I have rated T-10. One you get past the similar 40 times the similarities pretty much stop. Scarbrough is the oft-injured Derrick Henry clone. Jackson is a taller/skinnier back with quick feet who was pretty ill-suited to the thick turf at Northwestern. Jackson has better feet, Scarbrough has better power, both have concerns and considerable upside to at worst be very nice backfield compliments.

As I said at the top I like this group quite a bit. I have another 7 backs that I think have a reasonable expectation to have a starting role at the position in the NFL. This compares to a 12 total at or above that level last season. Not to mention that there are fair number of guys in this draft with very specific skill sets that will stick on NFL rosters. As we turn our focus to pass catchers (WR/TE) let’s recap the top of the RB class. Barkley is going to have David Johnson type rookie impact. Guice will give you a downhill stud, Chubb is a diverse x-factor who is hopefully past lingering injury limitations, and Michel has a chance to be well-rounded but multi-faceted backfield threat. Yeah, it’s good time to be RB needy in the NFL.